Morning Audibles 7.28.10 - How to Run a Blog in the Middle of the Summer

So how DOES one actually run a blog in the middle of the summer?

LESSON 1: 

Post a picture of either of these people...


Simply 'seeing' those images, should draw in enough nitwits who will wander in like sheep & provide you with a lush comment section so that your sponsors will stay put... 


LESSON 2:

As the nitwits take the bait, you make sure you chime in with your own neutral take on the matter...

Is that the QUIZZICAL look? Or is it the CONTEMPLATING one?
Deep, deep thinking going on there...
OTOH

LESSON 3:

Then, when you have a BLOG FULL OF SOUNDLY REASONED ARGUMENTS... What do you do for an encore?... Why naturally, you take the next logical step and ask people what they'd do to BANG SCARLETT JOHANSSON...

http://www.thingsiwoulddotobangscarlettjohansson.com/

And THAT... My friends... Is how you operate a blog in the middle of the summer of a "typical recovery"... (for maximum effect)...

Tomorrows Topic?

"Stock tips from Justin Beiber"

Next Week?

- "How to do pirhouettes in a typical recovery (by Barton Biggs)".
- "Is Grey Poupon kosher?".
- "The next 10 things, that haven't occurred yet, that we cam blame George Bush on... a panel discussion".
- "thingsiwoulddotobangtheflightattendantinfirstclassthatlookslikescarlettjohansson", while I'm traveling.
- Friday OPEN THREAD - mellow jazz tunes to show everyone how cool I am.

EPILOGUE

Never... And I mean NEVER, talk about charts, stocks, elliott waves, moving averages, options expiries, cardinal crosses, candles, fibonacci levels, golden crosses, death crosses, momo mondays, finreg bills, QE, beige books, jobless claims, GDP, earnings, EBITDA, guidance... or ANYTHING resembling anything mentioned...

- - -

CV? Basically I suck at running a blog... So I'm just going to show you how Ben Bernocchio manages to levitate an equity market in the middle of an economic meltdown of biblical proportions...





283 comments:

«Oldest   ‹Older   1 – 200 of 283   Newer›   Newest»
arbitrage789 said...

"Morning Audibles"...?

It's 11:00 o'clock at night.

arbitrage789 said...

Brief article on Bloomberg.com referencing comments by Laszlo Birinyi entitled:

“Technical Analysis Fails as Money-Making Strategy for Stocks”

http://tinyurl.com/2ectc49

karen said...

Any of you have an opinion on Jim Rickards ?

Rachel Maddow said...

Karen,

I think he's just another greedy capitalist.

karen said...

well, that headline was a little misleading based on the article's context.. (you know what i should be doing right now? ironing dishtowels. not sipping a spanish red and looking for news on the internet.. At least I am not shopping!)

arbitrage789 said...

I'm a bit behind on my dishtowel ironing as well.

karen said...

The question should be not whether Glen Beck is a real lunatic or does he just he just play one on TV, but why does he even have audience at all?

CV said...

@DL

It's always morning somewhere...

CV said...

@karen (11:29)

Answer: Because there are a lot of people who aren't really people at all...

They just play people on TV...

Thus... one can have an audience...

CV said...

@DL

Do you mean this Lazlo Birinyi?

Google, Goldman Sachs Are Top Stock Picks for Laszlo Birinyi

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aQnOxTRbyvxM

March 18 (Bloomberg) -- Investors should buy Google Inc. because of its growth opportunities and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. given that it’s a “well-managed company,” said Laszlo Birinyi, the founder of Birinyi Associates Inc.

---

GOOG $571 3/18/10
GOOG $484 7/28/10

GS $178 3/18/10
GS $147 7/28/10

I've got plenty more good advice where that came from if you REALLY want to dig into the LB archives...

CV said...

yeah... technical analysis fails...

You should only buy because they have good "growth opportunities", or because of "good management"...

karen said...

CV @ 11:51.. i love it when you call a spade a spade.

mcHAPPY said...

CV

Look at Andy's most recent update and check out slide 7.

mcHAPPY's perspective:

1) a quick break of 1083.48 would rule out the possibility of going higher very short term.

2) The ABC X ABC Ben has been talking about is spot on in my estimation - too bad it took me so long to come around to this count. Within this the ABC-X-ABC (flat-X-working on zigzag?) breaks down to expanded flat A-B-C/3-3-5. Expanded flats usually require a push much higher than A, in this case 1131. 1.618 of A would be 1157 and 1.786 would be 1170.

Within the last C, which is since July 1st, I think we just finished the a of a zigzag. In a zigzag wave a always subdivides into an impulse or leading diagonal (a clean 5 waves up done by my view). The next move should be lower in a B wave - EWP p. 81 "B waves are phonies. They are sucker plays, bull (bear) traps, speculators' paradise, orgies of odd-lottermentality or expression of dumb insitutional compalcency (or both)." *the (bear) was added by me* Given the trend is most definitely down, I think the next leg down is a bear trap.

Back to the expanded flat ABC off May 25 lows, A was 18 days, B 8-9 days, and that brings the latest move to 18 days. I'm looking for a small decline after a push higher (above 1120.95)followed by a 4 and 5 of C to take us to 1150-1170 range - much like slide 7 of Andy's update. I would expect mid-August to be quite the shit show if it doesn't happen sooner (see #4 below).

For a real chart of what I'm talking about check the DJIA from August-November 1973 or EWP p. 47.

3) a break of 1056.88 rules all #2 out. Remember this count requires a 3-3-5 expanded flat on the daily chart and 5 waves up to complete C. The possible five waves up off July 20/1056.88 would be the 3rd wave of C if 1120.95 was the top (not convinced it is but a break of 1083.46 would). If this was the case, the 5th wave cannot exceed 64.07 as wave 3 cannot be the shortest and wave 1 was 88.55 (1010.91-1099.46).

4) The only way I can see us heading down hard from here is if we finish the correction in a running flat where C finishes below A and B of course went lower than A. These are extremely rare as noted by EWP and would require the move off 1131 to be impulsive - EWI has given up on that and even mcHAPPY has - and it would rule out the ABC-X-ABC. The only way that move down could be impulsive, IMO, is if we had an extended 5th wave. IT is still possible, just not highly probable anymore - if it ever was. A break of 1131 would confirm it not possible.

I would love to be wrong as I'm short. I was a true believer that minor 3 was upon us. I'm willing to let it ride because whether 1120 was the top, 1150, or 1170 is the next move lower should take us well below previous low of 1010.91 and I do not want to be trying to get back in lower than where I got out - hopefully that makes sense.

mcHAPPY said...

Sorry, CV.

Saw the epilogue above after I posted. Not sure it was there first time I looked at it.

Also, I put a lot of work in to my post and I just had to share it.

CV said...

@karen

How's this for calling a spade a spade...

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/i-thought-quantitative-easing-ended

CV said...

@McHappy (11:59)

I hereby banish you to TWSWB...

Or, if you desire INPUT... This site is more suited to anyones talents & efforts...

http://bieberfever.com/

CV said...

@karen

LB (above)... refers to Lazlo Biriyni of course... NOT our beloved LB...

mcHAPPY said...

Can't stomach TWSWB or Bieb's.

Can I go to beaverfever.com instead?

CV said...

@mcHappy

I really appreciate all the effort you put into understanding wave counts (and especially the fact that you constantly ask ben & Andy their opinion on the counts)...

In all the time I've been on blogs... Andy T usually has the RIGHT count, sooner, than most of the other EWI blogs that I read casually...

That said... I've casually noticed something else as well...

It seems to me that WHENEVER a wave count becomes the "favorite" (or the "consensus", among wavers), that COUNT oftentimes tends to break down after its discovery...

It's almost like H&S patterns (& other TECHNICAL things)... As soon as they become apparent, then the probability begins to INCREASE that they will become invalid...

Now... That seems to fly in the face of your work (or the work of ben or Andy)... And the MAIN thing (in CV's mind), that you all have going for you is your FLEXIBILITY in considering multiple scenarios...

As you notice... Andy's presentations have MULTIPLE scenarios attached...

So anyone reading this blog, or acting in their own interests, should always follow their own guidelines &/or instincts when it comes to trading...

CV said...

@karen

"(you know what i should be doing right now? ironing dishtowels. not sipping a spanish red and looking for news on the internet)"...

Basically - if you MULTITASK the two activities... You end up with a new type of arts & crafts...

It's called TYE DYE...

karen said...

you guys are hilarious! CV at 12:07, thanks for clearing that up.. : ) But, honestly, I don't know what to think about that QE piece from Graham Summers at ZH..

karen said...

CV, haha.. i did change a lightbulb but the ironing will have to wait till tomorrow.. (again.)

mcHAPPY said...

Don't know what is going on with my computer tonight but pages keep getting refreshed on me and losing comments.

CV said...

@karen

Re: Graham Summers

I'm going to be honest... I DO believe that a certain amount of "pumping" goes on by the Fed & the famous "PTB"... at critical times...

I think it's very frustrating, and I think it requires a great deal of PATIENCE (especially in this day and age) to navigate thru it...

HOWEVER...

I don't believe ANY of it will effect the eventual outcome... It may STALL things a bit... But it's the process of the stall where one can learn things...

It would be TOO EASY otherwise...

Things aren't supposed to be easy... Thus my comments from yesterday's thread... CONSENSUS is always easy... Misery loves company...

It is very hard for the human psyche to endure being both IN THE MINORITY & WRONG at the same time...

arbitrage789 said...

I will make one comment in support of Kieth Olbermann. During the whole "zippergate" scandal, he was the most entertaining of the journalists who covered the story.

CV said...

That said...

I gotta go to bed...

If anyone wants any final words this evening on why the market was down today, just go to Bloomberg...


Stocks, Oil Retreat on Economy

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601010&sid=aJU2QFwlFn3U

so there you have it... stocks retreated on "the economy"...

OTHERWISE

If you're looking to see what people would do to bang Scarlett Johanssen... well - you probably already know where to go and have added your input thusly...

Nite all!

CV

arbitrage789 said...

whaddya know,

An entire website devoted to the question


http://www.thingsiwoulddotobangscarlettjohansson.com/

Stewie Griffin said...

"I, for one, don't know what the fuss is over this Scarlett Johansson woman. Sure, she has a balcony you could deliver Shakespeare from. But, she's just not doing it for me.

By the way, who's that handsome fellow on her arm?"

wunsacon said...

heh heh, :nytol:

;-)

mcHAPPY said...

@CV

No doubt on the taking others 'advice'. Quite obvious and anyone who strictly listens to me, you, Andy, I, Ben, Karen, whoever deserves to lose their money.

I used Andy's slide 7 becaue it is 3 trading days in after the post and that looks most probable while others have been invalidated or lower probability. Andy gives many scenarios because on a weekly basis, you'd have to, so much can change - obviously.

As for the counts and what everyone is saying: totally agree, sort of. I'm not looking to nail tops and bottoms (I think you said monkeys pick bottoms). For example for everyone looking for 1151, 1148 might be all we get. I'm trying to give approximations based on EW rules and fibo retracements common within EW.

It is quite obvious right now there is a corrective combination (flat-x-zigag) at work here. That may all change tomorrow which is why I was so elaborate in my post (i.e. break 1083, new highs, break 1056, etc.).

You seem down or frustrated or both of late. I hope you're doing alright and I'm misreading this.

Unknown said...

Just in case any of you guys want to trade the Indian Stock market (there is always a bull market somewhere ;-)), you can check out the CME group.
NSE India

Prashant

CV said...

Friends... (see above - my post from 12:48AM)

with link...

---

Now - It's 6:00AM... And as I sit down to the keyboard, I peruse this headline...

Stocks Rise as Europe's Economy Improves; U.S. Futures Gain, Euro Rallies

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aIcwJ5p_X74Q&pos=3

---

So there you have it... See? all it takes is a good nights sleep, and THE ECONOMY improves...

CV said...

3 Month Euribor: 0.899% Versus 0.896% Yesterday, Fresh 2010 High

Before you sit down to your coffee, do you mind rummaging under your sofa cushions to see if you have 500 billion Euros lying around that you could spare?

CV said...

Back to the copper mine Spartacus!

http://imarketnews.com/node/17229

CV said...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mOCsNrzlV2k

Unknown said...

Euro has now retraced .618 of its Mar 2010 highs and almost .38 of its Nov 09 highs of 1.51. Feels like Deja vu all over again.

CV said...

@Prashant

Re: EURO... One thing I can say is that it has retraced back to the EXACT level I called for it to be at on May 4th...

Then on May 6th was the FLASH CRASH...

McFearless said...

dollar is getting close....

McFearless said...

DL,

Nice link on Birinyi, he's one of my favorite assholes.

McFearless said...

C, 12:16

I think that is an accurate observation you made there. I think what you see happen when counts get real popular is this old known thing called.....herding! There's that whole idea that the market follows the path of pain for the majority, it's no different when everyone gets a wave that looks so good.

AT puts together some really complex counts that take a ton of work, I think that's part of the reason he's able to get ahead so often, it's much hard counting X waves in something than it is to try and fit 5 wave impulses on ever move to fit your fundamental view.

Unknown said...

Andy's Slides 8 & 9 targets on the Dollar Index about to be met now.

McFearless said...

yep, I'll likely be looking for a bottom to be put in on the dollar and will try to count a small five up and I'm going into the dollar hard. Lets see if the second time around goes as well as the first.

CV said...

@McF

You've gotta be licking your chops on being able to find a dollar reversal (for a couple of reasons)...

1. That's something that someone like yourself can move a lot of money into and feel fairly content about it for a long period of time

2. The re-trace level it's gotten to so far has, I'm sure, exceeded your expectations...

CV said...

FWIW

Despite the strength that we're probably looking at for todays open...

CV is still skeptical (and thinks there's a chance that the market may do a reversal intraday and close lower)...

I made a very lucky move yesterday (which covered me up for a poor decision last Friday)...

Last Friday, I removed the long hedges I'd had against my short positions (right at the last tick of the the Friday close at 3:59)...

That didn't taste too good on Monday or Tuesday, but I'd added shorts on Tuesday at 1116...

I was lucky enough that the market got back and covered the GAP of the Monday open (which made it a slight net profit overall) and I'm back to neutral again...

Frankly - I buy BOTH scenarios right now (that we see higher highs AND lower lows)...

I'm just not convinced that we're going to see the higher highs before the end of this month (which is tomorrow)...

Luckily, I have time on my side... The market is cooperating today by opening strong... If it starts to teeter & diverge in the afternoon, I may go short... If it hangs on, I'll admit I'm wrong and just let it do its thing thru Friday...

Keep in mind that the EOM has been cruel the past few months (April - May - June)...

CV said...

Remember TOPSTEP yesterday was talking about looking back at 1093 levels and such...

CV said...

I followed their advice on the 1116... (The problem is, I was DEFENSIVE at that point)...

Last week (and I mentioned it on this blog), they were hinting at 1116...

ben - you ought to remember that because I'd called it an OUTLIER...

That is - it would only be hit if some stops were blown... I'd taken the chance first that the stops WOULD NOT be blown (which I was wrong on)... But technicals were indicating to me that any trip to 1116, should it happen, would be short lived)...

TOPSTEP has been pretty good...

karen said...

what lit up the euro today?

CV said...

@karen

It hit it's 61.8% fibo retrace...

Too close to resist I guess...

CV said...

But the REAL answer is...

"The Economy"

karen said...

bear trap on uup? i wonder..

CV said...

I'm telling you... I'm going to go short if I see SPY 112...

karen said...

EUR/USD breaks 1.3100; bullish think-tank report rumored
Written by Jamie Coleman
July 29, 2010 at 13:41 GMT
EUR/USD has taken out the 1.3100 level amid market talk of a bullish report from a NY think tank.
Be advised, their last report forecast and RBA hike. Since then, soft CPI data cut the odds of that happening….
Next resistance for EUR/USD is at 1.3125, the 38.2% retracement of the drop from 1.5145…

McFearless said...

C,

yes, the dollar is something I can really work with especially with all the ETF's available now. The retracement in the dollar wasn't really too big a surprise to me though. If you recall i liquidated everything out of there a few points from the top. I felt very confident in the chart work when I watched the reversal in sentiment and all the "fundamental" compelling stories about why the Euro was toast that there would be a good drop in the dollar and an equally good rise in the Euro.

and, i can't resist saying this, but Birinyi's top stock pick in 2008 was AIG. Come on, this is the guy Michael Lewis wrote about in Liar's Poker, the guy in equities, where nobody wanted to be.

karen said...

no worries.. no way is this holding.. it's these effing currency pairs.. at extremes right now..

McFearless said...

I've still got that sso from yesterday, it's green by a couple bucks. big deal.

I-Man said...

Yall read this one?

http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/2010/07/28/sec-says-new-finreg-law-exempts-public-disclosure/


Control that info... control... doublespeak, lies, and control...

CV said...

This is the little casual RETEST of 1110...

To give all the bulls the hope that the level will hold this time...

CV said...

We'll be back up at 1116 again, I think...

But then...

karen said...

KidDynamite is replaying Hussman's Bernanke-Garret exchange..

http://fridayinvegas.blogspot.com/2010/07/hussman-on-bernanke-fannie-and-freddie.html

karen said...

A better take on Gross's August Outlook: Gross Calls Spending to Maintain Consumption a Waste (Update2)

..said deficit spending by governments that seek to maintain artificial levels of consumption “can be compared to flushing money down an economic toilet.”

mcHAPPY said...

DOW made new highs.

RUT, COMP, SPX have not.

McFearless said...

I'll watch for a break below 110.45 pivot on SPY that would be more bearish.

CV said...

I'm a little irritated at this point because I'd but a target of 111.94 on SPY to short...

It hit 111.82 and never reached my target...

I-Man said...

Yall just see that move in the bonds?

McFearless said...

my (our?) fav. chat via Mr. Purple Tie:

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/07/inflation-versus-deflation/

Mannwich said...

The strategy seems to be to bore everyone out of the markets and then short the heck out of it after everyone has moved on. ;-)

Please note the emoticon before you throw rotten virtual tomatoes at me.

McFearless said...

C,

we want a Charlie Wi victory this week in golf...or maybe Ricky Barnes could work some magic for me.

karen said...

Ben, LOL! saw that but didn't post it.. : )

I-Man said...

Remember that in summer, Thursday is Friday...

I-Man said...

anyone else having trouble w/ forexcharts.net...

their damn charts keep shutting down

McFearless said...

well, I'm just going to throw this out there, I'll explain why if it works and if it doesnt' I'll just pretend I never said this:

I think this rally peaks out btwn 8/9-8/11.

karen said...

csco has supposedly been halted..

CV said...

@McF

I've played many a round together with Charlie Wi...

Long time ago (back around 1991)... He was just getting going on the Asian tour back then, and we used to play at Wood Ranch GC in Simi Valley...

I bought a set of 1967 MacGregor "Muirfield" replica irons from him...

He's a funny dude...

karen said...

I'm going to see Inception tonight, supposedly.. did Bruce ever review it?

CV said...

@McF

How hard is INFLATION/DEFLATION to figure out?...

It's INFLATION for all the stuff you need and use (like food, energy)

DEFLATION for everything else (assets, wages, crap that you don't need)...

McFearless said...

C,

re: Wi

that's cool man, I've got him starting today in my A group and it's a good thing b/c Kenny Perry is on my bench at +4 through 11.

CV said...

As CV has said a million times before...

Coming soon, ALSO, to the USA...

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/when-jail-threat-dont-work-greek-government-punctuates-case-against-strikers-firing-tear-gas

"As we wrote earlier, Greece is currently paralyzed, literally, due to a wholesale shortage of fuel at gas stations, as drivers of trucks carrying the precious commodity have been striking for several days. As noted previously, the government invoked a war-time mobilization measure forcing the strikers to stop striking or face civil penalties and jail time. Shockingly, this had absolutely no impact ont he angry mob. In order to make its point even more clear, the government accentuated its overturn of labor rights by firing tear gas at protesters, according to the Guardian."

Now - If you'd stocked up on food & fuel in anticipation... Things would be less problematic...

karen said...

themosmitsos - Treasuries ......... YOUR TIP IS THE 2yr & 3m Libor ALMOST INVERTING ... *HAS* *NEVER* *EVEN* *COME* *CLOSE* *TO* *HAPPENING* *EVER* *B4

karen said...

themosmitsos - Treasuries ......... 2yr & 3m Libor almost inverting ... implied SPX target is 23.6% of ****ENTIRE**** move 1900-2000 ... think about that

CV said...

@McF

We had some interesting dudes at that club...

- Steve Pate (former PGA tour pro) "The Volcano"
- Blaine McAllister (PGA pro)

I played in their group sometimes...

Also...

- Tommy Lee (Motley Crue)
- And remember "Joe Isuzu"?

- Tom Neidenfurer (pitcher for the Dodgers)
- Some of the LA Kings (hockey)

& Mitch Voges (1991 US Amateur Champion)

so we had the trophy in out clubhouse for a year...

I-Man said...

really missing JJ at ATC right about now...

karen said...

i can't believe you are talking about golf at a time like this!

I-Man said...

no shit

CV said...

@karen

I missed my chance this morning... by 12 cents...

But I "called" it right... (9:19)

karen said...

this fellow's tweets are really getting to me (in order now):

themosmitsos - I mean seriously........THINK ABOUT THAT........and extrapolate how big #QE2 needs 2b..........then go buy #Peptobismol ☺

themosmitsos - But you know what, you know what's better than #QE2? War. fyi. Think about ****************THAT****************

CV said...

I'll just wait to see 1093 or 1082 & go long :-)

karen said...

so someone what to tell me this is a typical recovery and a typical intra-day market move again?!

CV said...

Until then I'm kickin' it with cold pizza for breakfast...

Ritzy said...

We're in a "typical recovery"

Ritzy said...

Do you want to know what I'd do to bang Scarlett Johansson?

AmenRa said...

Where did this weakness come from after this mornings bullish sentiment? Was it reality? The stars aligning?


Damn. Just noticed the 10yr at 2.87%. Bond market wasn't having any of it.

McFearless said...

Tommy Lee....sweet.

CV said...

@Amen

MONTHLY 3lb's...

I've been telling you for a week that the closing monthly candles would not be bullish...

That's why CV can't get on board with the push to 1130 until the month is closed...

McFearless said...

Karen,

11:15, I thought if I said the number quadrillion enough times it wouldn't seem so bad, sort of how it doesnt' bother me to hear trillion anymore, but I still can't get my head around quadrillion.

On the Scottish size scale of wee, not so wee, and fricken huge....that number is fricken huge.

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Some days you stay green...some days you turn red..

McFearless said...

spy candle lookin pretty ugly right now

CV said...

@McF

Funny to see a guy playing gold with tattoos all over his arms...

He was an avid golfer... (and quite the character with the golf carts)... Drove one into the lake one time...

The cart... not the ball (oh well - the ball too)...

I-Man said...

10y goin buck

CV said...

Danny, TOPSTEP... if I remember said something about 1093 yesterday...

Y'all ought to go back and check yesterdays video...

CV said...

@McFearless

1 quadrillion...

If you spent one million dollars per day for the next 27,397 years... You'd have spent a quadrillion dollars...

I-Man said...

Yee-haw!!!

karen said...

1093-1094 is 50 ema..

CV said...

It could pause for a small breather here at 1097...

That's halfway back to the gap at 1072...

karen said...

1096.05 is 10 ema / 1093.84 is 50

I-Man said...

continuation...

CV said...

@Amen

What's that MONTHLY 3LB number to confirm "trending" on SPX?

Is that 1095? Or would it be 1089?

karen said...

maybe we should watch QQQQ.. the joke: it taped off in volume as it reached yesterday's high.. the reality: it is holding the 20 ema in this typical correction..

I-Man said...

I feel like a fuckin buccaneer today folks...

AmenRa said...

CV

A close below 1030.71.

The reversal month has a close of 1089.41. The confirmation month was 1030.71. To start trending the month needs a close below confirmation.

CV said...

Just watch...

The markets will stay weak through tomorrow... (where everyone will all be RUNNING FOR THEIR LIVES because of the "cardinal cross")...

Maybe they'll even SHORT...

Then we get through the weekend unscathed... Momos buy at the first of the month, and we'll be back up again...

karen said...

BZQ is probably a no brainer.. check that chart!!

CV said...

@Amen

OK then... so MONTHLY it's kind of irrelevant because isn't the REVERSAL UP way up at 1186?

18 said...

CV said...
I followed their advice on the 1116...


It's been nice staying away from the markets for a few days, but, now where have I seen that number before? Thought last week I said a trip to 1116 and just a big maybe we'll see 1134, but doubt it.... just saying... now, you can return to your regular scheduled program. (do not take this advice as advice, but I would have shorted when CV did)

CV said...

@Amen

The WEEKLY reversal is at 1110, right?

I-Man said...

HELL YES.

I-Man said...

I'm RICH BEEATCH!

I-Man said...

Sorry, just had a target order fill that I didnt think would fill by the end of the day...

It filled, quick.

CV said...

@I-Man

:-)

I-Man said...

We bounced right off a gann from the May 2008 high just now...

The market is saying something...

Equilibrium.

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Yes, the market is saying something:

"It's ok to be schizophrenic"

I-Man said...

Now, if I only wasnt such a damn crackhead for the tape, I'd quit for the day...

McFearless said...

Karen,

I was watching the bovespa last night...that chart is really ugly right now, so yeah, BZQ might not be a bad idea at all.

McFearless said...

I think in looking at how today has played out so far we'd have to say that 5/18 candle is important and is going to be hard to overcome.

18 said...

I-Man said...
We bounced right off a gann from the May 2008 high just now...
The market is saying something...
Equilibrium.


as CV or Amen would say

GOTTA....GET....BACK....TO....10....90....8....AND....CLOSE....ABOVE!

mcHAPPY said...

Ben or Andy,

Did you see my counts from 2:23am? Interested in your perspective if you have a minute.

CV said...

@McF (12:19)

I don't necessarily see it that way...

I just think this is EOM BS...

My feeling is that once August starts fresh... we might get a chance at another rally...

CV said...

FWIW-

1088.67 is the WEEKLY 55MA...

That was an important support level all through the 2003-2007 rally...

I-Man said...

Random ass question of the day...

Anyone ever cared for or raised an infant squirrel?

(Yeah, I know...)

I-Man said...

He's pretty stinkin cute...

And the damn Audobon society assholes in Portland wouldnt take him because he's from Washington.

UFB.

CV said...

WEEKLY 233MA is 1221.90

The DEATH CROSS on the WEEKLY MA's happened on the November 2008 dip...

Hasn't crossed since (GOLDEN)

from 1221.90 - the 233MA weekly is trending down

from 1088.67 - the 55MA weekly is trending up

just observing...

McFearless said...

C,

I'm still in the one more move higher, this leg up doesn't have the right completed look yet, so I say overcoming that candle on 5/18 is going to be important, that and the 5/14 candle. Recall that during that time many (most?) were still wondering if the flash crash was a mistake, the market was changing trend though...bulls need to battle those. just my opinion.

Dennis Kneale said...

Don't be a wimpy fraidy cat.

Buy stocks now.

CV said...

@McF

I'm going to say this right now...

I think we'll actually see as high as 1186...

Not this week tho :-)

And NOT September... There - you have it...

McFearless said...

@McHappy,

i saw them, I didn't have much to offer, I'm still on the same count I've been on for about three and half weeks now...I'm still just waiting, the waves always take longer to complete than I want them to. This is also known as the market giving me the finger every couple of days.

CV said...

@McF

1098 is 50% between 1010 and 1186...

I-Man said...

@ 18

I prefer equilibrium, but thats just I...

karen said...

oops, over $18M in unpaid loan amounts off to auction this week..

http://lagunahomes.ocregister.com/2010/07/29/these-laguna-beach-homes-are-off-to-auction-25/7549/

McFearless said...

C,

I don't want to see any higher than 117.58 with the count I'm running with, that would be my pref. And I like around 115.33 on SPY as a failure point if it can get up there.

karen said...

I-Man.. research the internet for how to care for him.. they are so clever! will make a great pet.. and you can easily set him free..

McFearless said...

I have a question for you guys, lets say you were to hire an advisor to do financial planning and to manage your money for you. How often would you want to meet with that advisor for review, either over the phone or face to face? Answer knowning that you could call any given day if you had a question and you aren't going to be billed for stuff like that.

thanks for any responses.

I-Man said...

@ K

Mrs I has been online researching him nonstop since about 6pm last nite, lol...

She's even fed him puppy formula w/ a syringe, and I got some handwarmers out of my tackle box to keep him warm...

We like animals around I-Man's house...

karen said...

WSJ - McDonald's Corp. raised $750 million in the bond market Wednesday, paying what its deal manager said was the lowest interest rate of any U.S. company in at least 15 years and illustrating how competition among yield-hungry investors is driving down borrowing costs.

The fast-food giant sold $450 million of 10-year bonds and $300 million of 30-year securities. The 10-year debt pays investors an interest rate of 3.5%, lower than any interest rate paid by a U.S. company since at least 1995, according to data ...

CV said...

@McF

I can't answer because I'd NEVER hire someone to do that for me...

Theoretically tho - I suppose I'd want to at least chat on the phone once a week...

karen said...

Ben, meet in person? twice a year.. maybe once per year is calm times..

I-Man said...

@ McF

4 scheduled contacts a year, 2 in person, 2 over the phone.

And then random calls as needed, (and not just when they want to sell me something.)

I-Man said...

Check out "Supernova Advisor"... thats the best client contact model I've seen in the business.

Bernie Madoff said...

Typically, the number of meetings would depend on the account size.

18 said...

I-Man said...
I prefer equilibrium


I think your equilibrium is pretty stable from what I've seen.

About the squirrel, maybe take him to a veterinarian for a check up? They should know proper care, what type of foods to feed and also if they have any pests or diseases.

karen said...

of course, if "he" were exceedingly handsome, tall, and fit.. once a day minimum.. so many questions, so little time to talk..

McFearless said...

hmm, thanks.

CV, it's probably a good thing you never hired anyone b/c nobody is going to talk to you once a week, lol.

I, I'm sure you can laugh about this, I love going to these big company ho-downs where senior advisors give you "tips" they always have one about how many contacts (touches) you have with a client and they all count sending a birthday card as a contact. I always laughed at that. I do b-day cards, but I always envision some of my bigger clients doing the gordon gekko and shredding that thing thinking "come on "bud" tell me something I don't know...it's my birthday"

McFearless said...

karen,

your avatar looks like an album cover...I'm thinking Heart, they could have put one out like that.

CV said...

@McF

And that's EXACTLY my point...

McFearless said...

yeah I figured, this isn't really the type of crowd that goes to hire someone to do this for them, but I figured I'd ask anyway.

I usually try to do 3 face to face per year, some people get more, some only get 2 if they aren't doing any planning work with me. I do a lot of quick emails/random calls if something is going on and we aren't schedule to meet yet but need to make a change. fortunately since most money I manage is in wrap I don't need to sell every time I talk to someone.

Lord John said...

McF,
I also think twice a year would be plenty. If it's too frequent, I think that would be counter productive.

karen said...

Ben, It's from my favorite movie, RED.

CV said...

...should I buy AAPL?

... get me into BP...

I'd be tearing my hair out...

McFearless said...

LJ,

thanks, I know some guys that did quarterly face to face I adopted that for a while but had nothing to discuss by the fourth meeting so I moved to trimester instead.

karen said...

I think the state of the state of CA is adding some zest to bond prices myself.. forget Bullard's remarks.. old news.

Shortcrone said...

@McFearless:
Most everyone will come up with the 2 to 4 in person, 2 phone, etc. Why not do the unexpected-get to know your clients and their needs, then decide mutually how best to communicate. People are not standard, and their lives aren't standard either. Best advice, choose your clients wisely. You will be keeping them, hopefully, for a long time. As to the charges, we keep our fees lower than a 1.5% max with clients paying a $15 ticket charge, and we have a budget for trades. If you believe we are going into a world of lower than expected returns, you have to acknowledge your fee is a drag on those returns. We use Hussman, ETF's and individual stocks and bonds to keep client total expenses lower than mutual funds or outsourced institutional money managers.

AmenRa said...

CV

Yup 1186.69 to be exact. That's why I figured there could be plenty of pain waiting for the trend. I'm surprised they pushed the market over the monthly 3LB mid (today its back under).

McFearless said...

would have liked to have seen 1090 pivot busted for a more bearish looking chart....

CV said...

@McF (1:14)

I'm still thinking we get it...

I kind of have my eye down on the 1080-1082 area (by tomorrow)...

CV said...

We should see what TOPSTEP has to say...

Justin Beiber said...

Yo man what you go dissing me like that for, the chicks dig me and make their parents spend money on my stuff that's all that matters.

Yo picking stocks is easy when you do it the Justin Beiber way. And you can write this down if it helps.

Buy low sell high.

Piece out man

CV said...

@Amen

Run yourself a WEEKLY chart of $spx and put the 55MA and the 233MA in there...

Then look at it over the past decade and look at the CROSSES...

You'll see just how possible 1186 is at the moment...

McFearless said...

@SC,

thanks, I refuse however to fit my practice around what each individual client wants, I'm not really flexible with that idea, I don't know how wise it is to let clients dictate those sort of terms. Perhaps that sounds a bit rough but I could see that getting completely out of hand, people are nuts. I do a lot of hands on work in year one with people so they can get to know me well, usually 8-9 meetings first year with a client but after that they become part of the regular schedule it's taken us a few years to develop. My doing the unexpected is how I actually manage the accounts after they hand the money over, this isn't some buy and hold long term focus 20 year average rate of return don't worry about it shop I'm running here.

I do very few mf's anymore in the wrap program but I do use some, most people pay 1% and I cover the trading fees in there so it's not real pricey. I charge 2% for a few people that I'm really actively trading with and .5% on some very large accounts that are a little more passive. I'm pretty cheap in fact. Since I pay for trades rather than the client our fees sound like they'd be about the same on the bottom line.

thanks for the feedback.

karen said...

The President of the United States of America was on the daytime talk show The View.. it that doesn't depict how low we as a nation have sunk, i don't know what does.

72bat said...

ben -
what's you min acct size?

72bat said...

you > your

karen said...

vix sonar: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jaqgB3dNV0I

CV said...

KT KT

arbitrage789 said...

I had never even heard of "The View" before.

. . . . . . . . .


“Barack Obama criticized over daytime TV appearance”


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/northamerica/usa/barackobama/7917111/Barack-Obama-criticised-over-daytime-TV-appearance.html

CV said...

@karen (1:22)

I'm sure they were grilling him hard on foreigh policy...

But it figures...

His approval ratings are within 1 percentage point of an all-time low...

When in doubt - schedule an interview with adoring chicks who lob you softballs...

Shortcrone said...

McFearless: I agree-people are nuts-including me! Interestingly enough, we've never had a client push for more meetings than were offered. Most choose to meet once or twice a year with phone contacts when the situation merits. I've also found over the years that there are very few people, make that no one needs a 100 page notebook filled with graphs and charts to help them determine the pathway of their next 40 years. So financial planning is more listening and counseling and yellow pad scribbles than calculating. We all learn early, and too late: choose your clients more carefully than they choose you.

karen said...

DL.. this is how I found out about it, nymag.. a site i check for fun.

http://nymag.com/daily/intel/2010/07/is_president_obama_feigning_ig.html

CV said...

Sing along with Barry!

He's a girly girl... he's a girly girl...

I-Man said...

Thanks 18,

Little Don Carlos the squirrel looks like he's going to be shacking up at I-Man's house for awhile...

Little dude took a crap and pee'd, so he must be doing alright.

None of the animal places around here we've called will take him, they all told us to put him outside and let the crows get him.

Just cant do it. If he was on the verge of death or something it would be different. I was about 5 seconds away from mercy killing him yesterday when we found him... couldnt do that either.

CV said...

Frankly - I don't like those OPTION MONSTER VIX videos...

I usually fade them...

That one BIG TRADER (ooooohhhh - big trader) that was buying the August puts two days ago?

Well today someone ELSE just made them their beatch...

I said it when it happened, that it was probably THE SQUID trying to headfake the market for $167,000 in chump change...

arbitrage789 said...

"His approval ratings are within 1 percentage point of an all-time low"

. . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Yes, well, he still has a long way to go to get to Bush's lows.

CV said...

@I-Man

Just don't go getting rabies...

Doc (Bruce) would tell you now... Go get a tetanus booster...

CV said...

@DL

Bush was a HERO compared to the CONGRESS lows...

Shortcrone said...

I-man, I once nursed a baby bunny after our cat deposited it on the porch. We kept it in a dog cage, fed it the same formula my son used to transition to milk, and always handled it wearing gloves so that little of our human scent would transfer. We released it when it could eat grass, etc. on its own. Good luck with your little critter!

karen said...

mrtopstep

we got out of of our buys above 1097 flat now they aran the buy stops and now we have to get above 1099 up to 1104 to hit the next buy stops

18 said...

chart starting to look somewhat like 6/18-6/25, we'll see.

1104.88 is .382 of 1098-1116, lets see what happens.

CV, 1186.88 is .382 of 1080-1098, just saying

CV said...

@DL

And I hate to say this, but I'm going to say it anyway...

There will be a large contingent of the African American population that will stick by him no matter what...

I'm not trying to group all that thought together and play it off as a whole...

But when you consider that aspect (and - if you believe it)... It ought to play out that way IN REALITY...

So then when you "bake" that into overall approval ratings you get a better sense of reality...

To be fair... I'm sure the same percentage of "bible toting" Americans would never have seen Bush in any other way than positive either...

18 said...

oops, fat fingered it!
CV, 1086.88 is .382 of 1080-1098, just saying

CV said...

@18

You meant "1086.88", right?

arbitrage789 said...

“Mr. Bailout” himself, Neel Kashkari, was on Bloomberg this morning telling us how we’ve got to cut entitlements.


http://tinyurl.com/23thyp5


All these idiots, including all the MSM journalists, like to tell us how much better off we are as a result of the bailouts and “stimulus” bills.

J6P won’t figure it all out until the horses are long gone from the barn.

CV said...

@18

LOL - That's "sort" of a level CV is looking for... B-cause 1088.84 is the WEEKLY 55MA...

It could overshoot past, but I think it'll gravitate towards there by the end of the day tomorrow...

Run Dusty Run said...

@DL

I left the barn a long time ago

Mannwich said...

Amazing post right here.

http://housingstory.net/2010/07/28/the-aftermath-of-the-global-housing-bubble-chokes-the-world-banking-system/?source=patrick.net

CV said...

@Manny

For goodness sakes... If you're going to link an article like that, you need graphics to go with it...

http://www.makingpages.org/hoops/jul98_malone_hogan.jpg

McFearless said...

"what's you min acct size"

I dont' really require a minimum. I wouldn't be able to set up $500 roth IRA's every day or something like that though.

I-Man said...

I got 5$... get me long and double my money Benny.

I-Man said...

With no risk, too.

McFearless said...

"We all learn early, and too late: choose your clients more carefully than they choose you."

yep, count me in that group. very wise words here imo.

CV said...

@I-Man

LOL... The "I-Man" is swingin' for the fences today baby!

Must be all those BENJAMINS he scored in the breakfast hour... :-)

CV said...

CV is still waiting for his pitch...

He's worked the count to 3 balls & 2 strikes...

Fouled off a couple of pitches... I'll probably just take the walk and call it a day...

Mannwich said...

LOL cv. Nice one.

McFearless said...

oh, speaking of 100's, I'm telling you guys, it's getting more strange at the banks.....just sayin.

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