The S&P 500 continued it's bear grinder ways last week as it maintained its well formed channel. I'm looking for the S&P500 to break that channel this week. I'm going to use a break of 1300 to trigger a short sale.
Gold had another awesome week. Though, it's now rapidly approaching "legit" resistance. Bulls should be trimming length and raising their stops on long positions.
Market Commentary 29Jan12
Addenda
Any one else getting tired of the phrase "fair share?" As in we should all pay our "fair share" of taxes. Can some please tell me what the fuck that even means?
Sheldon Richman at Reason.com takes issue with the idea as well:
http://reason.com/archives/2012/01/27/obamas-bogus-case-for-tax-fairness
From the article:
"Does Obama really favor a tax system that leaves you only what you need—as determined by someone else? And look at that term “tax breaks.” If a burglar decides not to break into your house and take your things, have you gotten a break? Or have you simply kept what is yours? Is Obama really suggesting that how much of your income you retain should depend on what “the country” can afford? What does that even mean? ....
Obama (like most other politicians) regards government spending growth as inexorable and virtually untouchable, but why?"
15 comments:
AT,
you, well, know what 'it' means..
it is 'short hand' for the ol'* Rule -- "From each according to his 'ability' to Pay, to each according to his 'Need'..."
* also referred to as the 'Gold(en) Rule'--b/c it helps those with the 'Gold' (and the, requisite, 'heads-up' to, not only, keep theirs, but, also, further, prevent others from attaining any..)
or, the 'Copper Rule'--b/c, when 'exposed to the elements' it turns many 'Green' (with Envy)..
~~
people, really, have a hard time believing that this:
http://www.conservativeusa.org/10planksofcommunism.htm
Karl Marx's "10 Planks" to seize power and destroy freedom:
Abolition of Property in Land and Application of all Rents of Land to Public Purpose.
A Heavy Progressive or Graduated Income Tax.
Abolition of All Rights of Inheritance.
Confiscation of the Property of All Emigrants and Rebels.
Centralization of Credit in the Hands of the State, by Means of a National Bank with State Capital and an Exclusive Monopoly.
Centralization of the Means of Communication and Transport in the Hands of the State.
Extension of Factories and Instruments of Production Owned by the State, the Bringing Into Cultivation of Waste Lands, and the Improvement of the Soil Generally in Accordance with a Common Plan.
Equal Liability of All to Labor. Establishment of Industrial Armies, Especially for Agriculture.
Combination of Agriculture with Manufacturing Industries; Gradual Abolition of the Distinction Between Town and Country by a More Equable Distribution of the Population over the Country.
Free Education for All Children in Public Schools. Abolition of Children's Factory Labor in it's Present Form. Combination of Education with Industrial Production.
has, well, been the 'playbook' for 'many Moon'..
~~
"None are more hopelessly enslaved, as those who falsely believe they are free...."
http://www.libertyzone.com/Communist-Manifesto-Planks.html
http://search.yippy.com/search?input-form=clusty-simple&v%3Asources=webplus-ns-aaf&v%3Aproject=clusty&query=10+Planks+of+the+Communist+Manifesto
ibid.
Weekly 3LB Update 1/27/12
Hoffer.
Yes, thank you for encapsulating it so well.
That's what I was afraid of...
Meanwhile...
In the western 'burbs of Houston, Real Estate is booming...at least for certain houses.
So, this house we wanted to buy....
Was offered at $375K in 2009. The current owners bot it for $400K in a bidding war.
They listed it at $415 (two days ago) through their relocation person...
We put in offer at $415K to buy this place...at the "ask."
They said: "Can you guarantee $415K no matter what the appraisal is?"
I was pissed off at that....
But all my ladies wanted this place...
Me: "Ok. As long as it appraises for $400k (what you paid 2.5 years ago), then I'll pay you $415.
We received a verbal commitment from them yday. The deal was being papered up today and we were going to sign.
Someone else came in and bid $440K for the place this afternoon. They essentially paid 12% more than anyone has ever paid on a Sq/Ft basis in this 'hood.
LSS: My ladies are upset.
But, I'm not going to be the greater fool right now.
Sorry, they can have it.
I hate real estate brokers. I know the seller's agent used me as leverage.
Oh well.
So, homes are appreciating here in the h-town burbs. Pass it on...
I've heard of these types of stories during the euphoric boom days in AZ and CA and WA....
Never seen or heard of this happening here.
Crazy.
AT,
wow..that is a Crazy-story..esp., given the geo-(graphy)..
was about to say, esp. at these 'Rates', the diff. between 400K & 415K is negligible..
+ you get the 'Financial'-benefit of increased "Interest-Cost"-deduction..
and, the 'Economic'-benefit of "happy householders(yours)"-- which Yields far greater dividends (yes?)
but, 400K to 440K starts to feel like 'a Piece of Change'.. (no?)
personally, I'd take it as + 'Omen'..
might, just, find a 'better House', now..
~~
though, re: 23:11, yeah, that's the way I see it..
prob. is, ol' #44 is good at selling it (and, they are a lot of 'buyers'..)
big reason why We should see #45..(though, obviously, no guarantees that He/She/It will be a + "Change"..)
AAIP
(and, they are a lot of 'buyers'..
they=there
Sorry about the house, Andy. Prices in TX are still catching up from the oil bust of the late 80s and 90s...
Vancouver, Canada, where I lived during the fall, has some really crazy housing stories: realtors going door to door in rich neighborhoods, begging the owners to sell their house for $3-4 million. A similar house in Houston would cost $500k max, and one in Seattle would cost $1 million. It's a crazy dynamic driven by mainland Chinese investors who want to protect their wealth and rich retirees from Alberta. It's now even less affordable than Sydney, Australia
The thing that makes the Vancouver housing bubble even more dangerous is that there are no 30 year fixed mortgages in Canada. All mortgages are fixed for only 5 years, then become ARMs. The land of tar sands, gold, and other commodities is going to have to raise their interest rates eventually, and when they do it isn't going to be pretty.
In Europe, Germany has the dominant financial position because there was no housing bubble. See this nice chart from Goldman Sacks (back in September 2007 once they started buying subprime CDS.) I was shocked to hear that Germany unemployment is at an all-time low while Spain unemployment is at a post-WWII high.
@Eric.
Whoa. Didn't realize that story about canadian mortgages....That is a toxic set up.
"The land of tar sands, gold, and other commodities..." Ha. Yeah, there are some pockets of Canada that are like ol' fashion boomtimes....
There are places like that in the good US and A....
If you're out of work in the U.S., then head to places like montana, South Dakota....you'll find some work.
@Hoffer
For sure... hell, the difference between 400 and 440 isn't that much either on 80%LTV 30yr/4% deal. That wasn't the issue so much. The issue was the negative equity action....this dumb house wasn't going to appraise for more than 400...So, I was essentially going to pay 20% down + an extra 15K down to cover the negative equity.
Anyway...moving on.
I do see most things as an "omen."
@Hof
Appropriate for putting up "The Comunist Manifesto"...
Most Dollar Trading "CapTALists" don't realize that the "other" system has already breached most aspects...
Funny that TCM was, I think, written back around 1850...
- before FRN's
- before electronic trading
So... Marx, today, could have included"
- Confiscation of wealth & evisceration of profits through centrally managed inflation targets (&, cough cough, employment targets)...
- Manipulation of capital flows (same as all other things that contain "central planning")...
& a few other things...
---
TAXES are not in the Constitution and they weren't necessary until people held FRN's in their hands... (Which is a system, call it "the Warburg" system that was passed through Congress in the dead of night, over the Christmas holidays when most most any dissenting votes had gone home)...
Furthermore, the United States is NOT a country it's a CORPORATION (in the most literal sense)...
http://www.serendipity.li/jsmill/us_corporation.htm
===
Since everyone... ESPECIALLY AROUND HERE... Is so gladly complicit is exchanging "fractional reserve debt money" (due to its convenience & other great & wonderful things like being awed by its RESERVE CURRENCY status)... And since the IRS is the agency of the Treasury (put in place to be able to siphon off capital & fruits of labor)... I'm quite shocked that anyone would complain about their "tax rate" (or even bother discussing it)...
Call it "THE PRICE OF ADMISSION for the games everyone wants to play"...
Of course... "trading" has & will always go on in the backwoods outposts of any civilized society (or, "not so civilized")... But anybody complaining about taxes HERE is being a little hypocritical...
I'm not suggesting that, as long as we are slaves to the present system, anyone run afoul of the (I hate to even call it "law", because even the "legality" of it has been questioned many times)... But, run afoul of the (what's the name of that thing that you pay mafia types for "protection")?...
@Andy T
Re: House
Start with $400,000 (new debt money), then multiply that by 10x (fractional reserve)...
The assume it's going to be sold (in a tranche) to another institution who will rehypothecate it and use it as collateral for thhe additional possibility to "lever it up", and make BETS with (by, say, traders at MF Global)...
Now imagine this being done several (perhaps dozens) of times...
In the end... YOUR $400,000 "contribution" to the system keeps a lot of bankers & traders thrilled to have the hookers & blow flowing (while "bidding up") the prices you pay for gasoline, energy, & the food you eat [which has high energy costs attached to it])...
If the traders go bust, their firms receive bailouts for that (and you get the the tax bill for it)... Meanwhile, the ability to feed yourself diminishes incrementally each day...
So if your daughters are disappointed in NOT getting the house, just tell them to watch HUNGER GAMES re-runs over & over for entertainment... (& be glad that YOU were not personally responsible for allowing that world to exist)...
EURCHF took out the low from Nov 2011. The peg is in serious jeopardy.
@Andy
My intention there was not to sound overly snarky... I do realize that decisions like that have as much to do with factors INSIDE a nuclear family as they do with the macro economy...
But I just wanted to spell something like that out because 99.9% of the people never even think about it that way...
Which is probably WHY the world finds itself in the "economic" condition it's in today (which further pushes us TOWARDS the Karl Marx "manifesto" as it finally seems like a viable alternative ONLY WHEN things fall apart at the seams...
SPX vol 2.35M, vol SMA(21) 2.84M @ 13:54.
Let's see how much it jumps right at 14:00.
4pm
SPX Vol 2.56M. So 210k in 6 minutes or 8% of the daily volume. Makes no f'in sense.
SPX Vol 2.56M. So 210k in 6 minutes or 8% of the daily volume. Makes no f'in sense.
The PWG... Helping to sustain & support "The January Effect" since 1988!
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