"We are coming by air..."
"We are coming by land..."
Creditcane™: Making landfall in Greece this week.
SPXHanging man day (with long tail). Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. Tested and failed the minor 38.2% retrace (1314.25). Daily 3LB reversal down (reversal is 1326.06). QE2infinity.
DXYBullish thrusting day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing the 61.8% minor retrace (79.60). Failing SMA(55). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 79.78).
VIXBearish long day (yet closed higher). Midpoint above EMA(10). Failing all SMA's. Tested and failed its 50.0% minor retrace (20.22). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 20.63).
GOLDBearish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and held its 38.2% retrace (1721.30). Still above all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1681.50). Still above monthly 3LB mid. Must have the precious.
EURUSDDark cloud cover day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and failed SMA(55). Tested and failed its 50.0% minor retrace (1.3137). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1.3025).
JNKSpinning top day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. Failing its 38.2% minor retrace (39.62). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 39.12).
10YR YIELDSpinning top day. Failing all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed its 0.0% retrace (18.96). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 20.68).
WTIBearish short day. Tested and failed SMA(55). Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing its 61.8% retrace (102.10). No dally 3LB changes (reversal is 103.12). Not confirming the monthly 3LB reversal down.
SILVERBearish short day (tail too short for hanging man). Holding above SMA(89). Midpoint above EMA(10). Holding above its 38.2% minor retrace (31.85). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 32.28).
BKXBearish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and held SMA(21). Failing its 50.0% retrace (43.76). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 42.08).
HYG/LQDBullish short day. Tested and held SMA(55,144). Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and held its 38.2% retrace (0.7808). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 0.7908).
EEMBullish short day (yet closed lower). Midpoint above EMA(10). Holding above all SMA's. Tested and held its 50.0% retrace (41.81). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 41.78).
COPPERBearish short day (confirmed bearish harami). Midpoint above EMA(10). Holding above all SMA's. Tested and failed its 50.0% retrace (3.863). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 3.800).
IT HAS BEGUN. YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED.
23 comments:
"Air Bear"...
Catchy!
The PWG... Helping to sustain & support "The January Effect" since 1988!
~~
it'd be funny to see that on the T-Shirt of some dude walking down the street..
~~
ibid.
If I see another "Greek swaps deal days away" headline...
S&P Case-Shiller
20 City SA M/M -0.7% previous -0.6%
20 City NSA M/M -1.3% previous -1.2%
20 City NSA Y/Y -3.7% previous -3.4%
Home prices are still falling no matter what the MSM wants you to believe.
Chicago PMI
Nov 65.2
Dec 62.5
Jan 60.2
Not the direction the market was hoping for (unless it allows the Fed to give QE3 the go ahead).
http://www.sacbee.com/2012/01/27/4220861/lawmaker-targets-coinage-costs.html
Nickles bitchez!
Consumer Confidence
Actual 61.1 vs exp 68 and prev 64.5
"Sir, what do we do? The reality shows aren't holding the attention of the populace anymore."
State Street Investor Confidence 92.4 where previous was 99.3.
BTW Case-Shiller for Dallas is -1.3% & previous was -0.9%.
"...The inability to get back over the 200DMA, along with a failed breakout over the last couple of days, is not encouraging. The weekly options are looking for a roughly $16 move on the bell this evening, which makes it real tough -- that's a big move in percentage terms but it's probably not overstating the case.
Chart-wise I'd be inclined to be short, but the risk here on any beat of expectations, given the fall from the highs, is extreme -- the potential for a squeeze is very real. Do note, however, that any such squeeze is likely not something that will hold up beyond a day or two as the short ratio is very low.
Of course with a 100 P/E the other risk -- on any indication of a potential miss forward (not so much on earnings, but expectations) -- is a big fat organic dump-fest southbound.
I just can't buy something with a 100 P/E and a P/E/G ratio of nearly six. That's ridiculous and shows that just to get back to reasonable expectations on PEG -- say, 2-2.5 -- the stock could easily get cut down to under $100!
No thank you, especially not with an operating margin of 2.5% and no dividend.
So I'm left with no good trade in front of earnings, but if there's a strong positive reaction and yet the internals of the release suggest deterioration in margins there might be a very juicy trade that becomes available in the aftermarket -- short. You'll have to read the release fast though and do your analysis on a snap basis, as this is not a trade you can enter mechanically unless you want to risk having your head ripped off...."
http://market-ticker.org/
http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=AMZN&ty=c&ta=0&p=m
(Monthly, above/Daily, below)
http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=AMZN&ty=c&ta=0&p=d
both, but, esp. the 'Daily', looks Lame..
now ~190.55
AAIP
AT,
from 'Yesterday'..
"...For sure... hell, the difference between 400 and 440 isn't that much either on 80%LTV 30yr/4% deal. That wasn't the issue so much. The issue was the negative equity action....this dumb house wasn't going to appraise for more than 400...So, I was essentially going to pay 20% down + an extra 15K down to cover the negative equity..."
yes, esp. re: 'neg. Equity'..
good point.
not sure how 'to Account' for, potential, "Exit Fees"(neg. Equity)..
hopefully the "20% d.p." will cover it..
but, anyway, you'll come across a 'Deal' that feels right..
~~
the 'Financing' will change, but have you thought about using a "Corporation" to buy the House?
"Tax Laws" change all the Time, but, it isn't 'inconceivable' that--through a 'Proper Structure'--the transaction could 'flow through', considerable, 'Tax Advantages'..(yes, even, back to one's 'Self')~
AAIP
First betting hedge fund goes under....
"bad luck"
http://www.businessinsider.com/sports-betting-hedge-fund-collapses-2012-1
That's funny...
""Tax Laws" change all the Time, but, it isn't 'inconceivable' that--through a 'Proper Structure'--the transaction could 'flow through', considerable, 'Tax Advantages'..(yes, even, back to one's 'Self')"
sure, but he'd, at minimum, give up the interest tax deduction on his personal taxes in doing so, same with the deduction for the property taxes
sure, but he'd, at minimum, give up the interest tax deduction on his personal taxes in doing so, same with the deduction for the property taxes
~~
that's H*****shit.
the 'Interest Expense', and the 'Property Tax', among a host of other expenses, would be 'Expenses'--attributable to the 'Corporation'..
depending on Structure, those 'Losses' would flow-back to the Owner of the 'Corporation'...
"sub-S", "LLC", "REIT", all, at the minimum, would 'fit the mold'...
AAIP
"that's H*****shit."
really? I didn't say your idea was wrong, simply that you haven't thought it all out....let me show you
for starters, your analysis factors in no on-going costs to have the corp or the other potential factors andy could face, the fact that Andy T now needs to file corporate taxes (since all LLC's require a "business purpose to exist")
also, your commentary on the losses flowing back to the corp reveal what I believe is a fundamental misunderstanding of the tax code in the context of a primary residence in an LLC. LLC's can only deduct "ordinary or necessary" business expenses, so in the vast majority of cases the LLC can't take those deductions on the primary residence, which you incorrectly state as fact that they flow through as losses. Also, are you aware if TX requires real estate transfer tax for doing this? You seem to be an expert in tax law, I am not, but I know....a few things. Do you know if you do this in TX if the property then loses its homestead exemption as it would in Florida, among other states, in which case the taxes, that can't be deducted, would also likely go up?
this is to say nothing of Section 121 of the tax code! If you're married and you and your spouse together own a limited liability company that, owns your residence, you may find that your husband-and-wife multiple member limited liability company gets treated for tax accounting purposes as a partnership. Because a partnership owns your principle residence, you presumably will lose your ability to use the Section 121 exclusion. this could be, in a word, huge, as I get the sense AT plans to stay in this home for a longer period of time since its a family move, not a single guy in a new condo.
Also, if you don't think the IRS would question an LLC that never earns income, ever, you are also wrong....
finally, interest rates on commercial loans, which the bank may consider this to be, are higher...
hardly an easy call, being the original point
http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=PFE
~21.30
anyone else see a 'Rounding Top'?
AAIP
and AAIP, to be clear, I wanted to do exactly this, after I looked at the figures with my CPA it made no sense, at least not in DE, for a primary residence, for the right person in the right state *maybe it makes more sense, but I'm not sure this is universally a very good idea
REIT status would make it even more tricky given all the special rules REIT's are subject to
in the meantime, I rip every possible tax benefit I can get from the LLC I established in 2005, but it is tied to an actual business.
McB,
Happy New Year!~
~~
past that, this: "...the 'Financing' will change, but have you thought about using a "Corporation" to buy the House?
"Tax Laws" change all the Time, but, it isn't 'inconceivable' that--through a 'Proper Structure'--the transaction could 'flow through', considerable, 'Tax Advantages'..(yes, even, back to one's 'Self')~..."
was the Preface..
note, the Q: "...have you thought about using a "Corporation" to buy the House?"
also, the add'l Caveat: "..."Tax Laws" change all the Time..."
the 'Point'/'Question' was Simple..
~has He thought about it(the Transaction)..
~it doesn't Have To go down 'in the Missionary Position'..
'other 'Structures' have benefits'..
("benefits", where ever found, have "costs")
if He has access to competent Counsel he may care to consider it/if not, He mat care to reflect upon that..
Personally, I don't know 'Dude', let alone the various ramifications that *any*, specific, Recommendation would have for Him..
to think otherwise is, rather, to be Braindead..
We could sit here "Quoting Tax Code" until we're 'Blue in the Fingers'..
the next you'd like to have a circle-jerk, please, lose the e-vite..~
~~
past that, good to see "you"'re "on the Hoof"..~
AAIP
"...if not, He mat care to ..."
"...He may care to..."
yep, fair enough, I think generally you approach it the right way, just not sure it "works"
of course you should maximize all available to you, so long as the initial benefits don't outweight the future costs of course....
personally the capital gains tax pontential (and who knows at what rate they will be considering they are basically at all time lows) would likely eliminate most of the tax benefits at quick glance
Happy 2012 to you as well, see you after 12/21, think we're gonna make it
lol....
Mc22,
there's a certain line of 'thinking' that espouses that ~"One should never(as close to 'never', as practicable..) 'interface' with the "Juridic World" as an 'Individual'.."
http://www.thefreedictionary.com/juridical
note: most Everything you 'do' is a 'Commercial Transaction'..
w/that, there are a ~multitude of different 'Structures' one can 'Operate' within..
What most *believe to be 'an Individual' is, simply, at Law, viewed as a specific kind of 'Structure'..
again, 'until We're blue in the Fingers..'
~
ibid.
but of course, thats why my LLC performs "adminstrative services"
is that what I do?
which allows me to, among other things, lease my car, from myself
however, it would be important to also say that many laws are written in such a way that if you take advantage of one, you may give up the benefit of another, especially with regard to the tax code
CrackieB,
see: "("benefits", where ever found, have "costs")"
thanks, though, for 'the Insight'~
AAIP
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