AmenRa's Corner 1.31.12



Creditcane™: Greece deal likely this week (even when all of the creditors aren't participating). Snark.


SPX
Spinning top day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. Tested and failed the minor 38.2% retrace (1314.25). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 1326.06). QE2infinity.



DXY
Bullish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing the 61.8% minor retrace (79.60). Failing SMA(55). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 79.78).



VIX
Spinning top day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing all SMA's. Tested and held its 61.8% minor retrace (18.81). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 20.63).



GOLD
Spinning top day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Holding above its 38.2% retrace (1721.30). Still above all SMA's. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1703.30). Still above monthly 3LB mid. Must have the precious.



EURUSD
Spinning top day (confirmed dark cloud cover). Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and failed SMA(55). Tested and failed its 50.0% minor retrace (1.3137). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1.3025).



JNK
Bearish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. Holding above its 61.8% retrace (38.86). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 39.12).



10YR YIELD
Bearish long day. Failing all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing its 0.0% retrace (18.96). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 19.01).



WTI
Spinning top day. Tested and failed SMA(55). Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing its 61.8% retrace (102.10). No dally 3LB changes (reversal is 103.12). Not confirming the monthly 3LB reversal down.



SILVER
Spinning top day. Holding above SMA(89). Midpoint above EMA(10). Holding above its 38.2% minor retrace (31.85). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 32.28).



BKX
Doji day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and held SMA(21). Failing its 50.0% retrace (43.76). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 42.08).



HYG/LQD
Spinning top day. Holding above SMA(55,144). Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed its 38.2% retrace (0.7808). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 0.7908).



USDJPY
Bearish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing all SMA's. Failing its 38.2% retrace (76.475). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 75.52).




IT HAS BEGUN. YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED.

22 comments:

AmenRa said...

re: California

As for the math: "But Chiang said additional cash management solutions are needed because state tax revenues are $2.6 billion less than what Gov. Jerry Brown and state lawmakers assumed in their optimistic budget last year. Meanwhile, Chiang said, the state is spending $2.6 billion more than state leaders planned on."

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/california-run-out-cash-one-month-controller-warns

AmenRa said...

Watch you back. The Swiss and Japanese Central Banks are loading their weapons...

cv said...

@ben22

OT, but...

In about a month or so... the BOOEY League will be doing "Fantasy Baseball"...

In the past coupla years, the league sometimes needs some 'bodies' to fill in...

I send this out to Andy T too (but I don't think Andy T does Fantasy Beisbol & I think you said you do)...

Anyway... Let me know if you're interested...

Frankly... It vascillates between a FREE & PAY league... Last couple of years it'is been FREE (bragging rights)...

But give me a nod if you might want IN this year so I can notify Booey...

CV

ben22 said...

CV,

thanks much for the offer

just one question, is this a hardcore league like the football league was this year? iow, serious players.

reason I ask is because fantasy baseball is a lot of work (imo) and I've only ever done free yahoo public leagues where if I didn't mess with my lineup one full week nobody got upset with me and there was no money on it anyway. Point is I don't want to be "that guy" and I've got a very busy early summer this year in particular with a big exam I have coming up that will take up a lot of focus, if its a bit more relaxed I'm in but otherwise I might defer until next year if you'll still have a spot.

ben22 said...

I know you described it that way, a bit more relaxed, but then, if booey is in it, I know he's a gamer, as are you.

cv said...

@ben

It's usually about half & half... Booey, me, Red (who was Purple Death in FF), my bro (who was Oriole4)... we're always gamers...

The rest are a mixed bag...

Nobody is gonna bust your chops if you slack off (or you could get a friend to manage your team for a week if you're busy)...

Again... It's not always PAY (wasn't last year)... So that's a consideration...

Anyway... Let me know... You still probably have a month to decide...

Anonymous said...

"...a big exam I have coming up that will take up a lot of focus..."

McB,

have you ever considered 'becoming' a "Broker/Dealer", or, since I'm asking, a "Registered Options Principal", or catching your "'MMods license"?

AAIP

b22 said...

AAIP,

I haven't considered doing any of those in particular, but something along those lines/leaving the current position, sure, every single day.

ben22 said...

CV,

sounds good to me, I'm in if there's a spot

thanks

AmenRa said...

Baltic Dry

If it takes out the low from Dec 2008 then it will be at levels not seen since Sep 1986.

cv said...

@Amen

Isn't the BDI based on "rates" (not tonnage)?

AmenRa said...

ADP 170k vs consensus 172k (Briefing.com) & 182k (Bloomberg).

cv said...

...which, if so, reflects more on an overbuilding of ships than the rubber dogshit from China that they carry around...

AmenRa said...

re: Baltic Dry Index

Baltic Dry Index is a daily average of prices to ship raw materials. It represents the cost paid by an end customer to have a shipping company transport raw materials across seas on the Baltic Exchange, the global marketplace for brokering shipping contracts. The index is quoted every working day at 1300 London time. This index can be used as an overall economic indicator as it shows where end prices are heading for items that use the raw materials that are shipped in dry bulk.

The index is maintained by the Baltic Exchange. The cargoes being moved are raw material commodities such as coal, steel, cement, and iron ore. The prices of underlying contracts are determined by the buyers and sellers, and then the exchange takes 20 different routes throughout the world for various materials and averages them into one index. The index does not concern itself with finished goods or container ships, only raw materials and dry bulk specific ships are factored into the calculation.

cv said...

@QOTD

"A coward is incapable of exhibiting love; it is the prerogative of the brave."

Mahatma Gandhi

---

So I'm trying to figure that one out...

You see... I'm INCAPABLE of exhibiting love towards brussel sprouts... I hate the damn things...

But I suppose I could be BRAVE and eat them on occasion... Which would make me what?

A lover of brussel sprouts?

Oh yeah... Now I get it!

Anonymous said...

cv--

are you Dense, or, just, going with a lame attempt at 'Humor'?
~~

""A coward is incapable of exhibiting Love; it is the prerogative of the Brave.""

may be better Syntax..~

AAIP

Anonymous said...

http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=AMZN

~173.46

looks like Denninger had the right Idea..~

ibid.

18 said...

back to 1325,
say it again...
now where?

Anonymous said...

http://screwtapefiles.blogspot.com/2012/01/whats-real-premium-for-bulk-silver.html

cv said...

@AAIP

are you Dense, or, just, going with a lame attempt at 'Humor'

Mostly the latter...

but to be honest... Quotes often baffle me...

First of all, since the dawn of the internet, the reliability of these expressions is often in question...

Second... Time & space removed, the meanings of the quotes often become romanticized, or at minimum mere "fractals"...

You could cite Ghandi himself as an example...

Mention "Ghandi" & automatically a large majority of people immediately go to hushed tones (probably knowing little to nothing about him save for memories of "others" opinions of him)...

Ghandi also (supposedly) said...

"A religion that takes no account of practical affairs and does not help to solve them is no religion..."

...and with that... I'll leave anyone that wishes to do so go back to quote worshipping...

cv said...

@AAIP

What I'm saying about "QUOTES" is more directed at specific ones like this (NOT the fact that you often use them when you post)...

This one just bugs me in particular...

The Hypothalamus is the "love" center of the brain... It has as much to do with eating chocolate as it does with sex & feelings...

Now... if Ghandi wants to take LOVE into another realm, then why does he use words like "exhibit"... TRUE LOVE in an ethereal sense ought not require exhibition...

To me... It's just a cool bunch of words jumbled up into a phrase...

Anonymous said...

cv--

I hear ya (I think..)

esp. re: "...Mention "Ghandi" & automatically a large majority of people immediately go to hushed tones (probably knowing little to nothing about him save for memories of "others" opinions of him)..."

that, in, and of, itself, is a fascinating happenstance to Witness..
~~

though, Hopefully, most use "Quotes" as, but, a starting point--for, further, understanding..

that some/many do not--well, "They" (too) have always been with "Us".. ;)

AAIP

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