Don't look back!!!
Creditcane™: I'm in the Mediterranean.
SPXSpinning top day (confirmed dark cloud cover). Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. Tested and held the minor 38.2% retrace (1314.25). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1314.50). QE2infinity.
DXYBearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing the 61.8% minor retrace (79.60). Failing SMA(55). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 79.78). Also had a weekly 3LB reversal down.
VIXBearish short day (didn't confirm bullish piercing). Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing all SMA's. Tested and failed its 61.8% minor retrace (18.81). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 20.63).
GOLDBullish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and held its 38.2% retrace (1718.10). Still above all SMA's. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1681.50). Still above monthly 3LB mid. Must have the precious.
EURUSDBullish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and held SMA(55). Tested and held its 61.8% minor retrace (1.3222). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1.3025).
JNKBearish short day (weak completion of evening star). Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. Tested and failed its 38.2% minor retrace (39.62). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 39.12).
10YR YIELDBearish long day. Tested and failed SMA(21). Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and held its 0.0% retrace (18.96). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 20.68).
WTISpinning top day. Tested and held SMA(55). Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing its 61.8% retrace (102.10). No dally 3LB changes (reversal is 103.12). Not confirming the monthly 3LB reversal down.
SILVERBullish short day. Holding above SMA(89). Midpoint above EMA(10). Holding above its 38.2% minor retrace (31.85). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 32.28).
BKXBullish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. Failing its 50.0% retrace (43.76). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 42.08).
HYG/LQDBearish short day (confirmed dark cloud cover). Tested and failed SMA(21). Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing its 50.0% retrace (0.7942). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 0.7908).
AUDJPYBearish short day (confirmed bearish harami). Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and held SMA(233). Tested and failed its 61.8% retrace (0.8182). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 0.8231).
XRTBullish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. Tested and failed its 0.0% retrace (55.92). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 54.36).
IT HAS BEGUN. YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED.
14 comments:
Now that Fitch has cut Italy and Spain by two notches, does that mean funding costs should rise? Usually a downgrade from one rating agency won't affect it too much. But two is another story.
Eric K
Good point about the filing. Thanks. Still that means they can hype the hell out of it until the actual IPO.
"Don't Look Back" (foto caption)
Glad you reminded me...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KiOqHLVxZvA
"I finally see the dawn arrivin'...
See beyond the road I'm drivin'...
Actually, the SEC requires that Facebook be in a "quiet period" where they can't hype the IPO at all except during "road shows" with investment bankers. And most of those investment bankers already know the stats for Facebook from the Goldman private placement at a $50 billion valuation. Facebook won't have the normal insider lockup issues that LinkedIn and others have had because insiders were able to sell so much stock on the secondary markets.
@eric
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3sqiGdIqsfQ&feature=related
"Fixed fortifications... are a testimony to the stupidity of man[kind"]"...
But don't take my word for it... I'm just a self destructive a55hole...
GOD help me... I do love it so...
Amen:
What do you make of the German demands to have the EU control Greek finances? Where do you think this goes?
BinT
1.Absolute priority to debt service
Greece has to legally commit itself to giving absolute priority to future debt service. This commitmenthas to be legally enshrined by the Greek Parliament. State revenues are to be used first and foremostfor debt service, only any remaining revenue may be used to finance primary expenditure. This willreassure public and private creditors that the Hellenic Republic will honour its comittments after PSIand will positively influence market access.
De facto elimination of the possibility of a default wouldmake the threat of a non-disbursement of a GRC II tranche much more credible. If a future tranche isnot disbursed, Greece can not threaten its lenders with a default, but will instead have to accept furthercuts in primary expenditures as the only possible consequence of any non-disbursement.
Anyone think Greece is going to fall for this?
BinT
That didn't take long: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/greece-politely-declines-german-annexation-demands
Greece to Germany: "Bite me!"
If you really want to put on your tinfoil hats, refer to a Bloomberg MSG I received this week from a rates guy we deal with. The message cited anonymous sources in the Greek administration who claim that these negotiations are just a delaying tactic for Greece to prepare a withdrawal from the EMU.
Anonymous sources are not credible, by definition; however, given that (1) a withdrawal from the EMU (and probably the EU) is the only way Greece can remain sovereign and (2) a withdrawal from the EMU will require some amount of infrastructure to be created to replace the monetary system, delaying tactics to provide time to build the infrastructure seem logical.
Levered Super Conduits, Euro Bonds, etc. are not going to fix the fact that there is debt in Europe that cannot expect to be repaid with cash. This leaves massive haircuts and/or PIK bonds (to be rolled perpetually or until investors accept increasingly larger haircuts).
The Europe situation is the only think keeping me from beta grazing this year.
Lending to democratic governments is not a good idea over the long term. The securities are trades, not investments. The cash flows are exceedingly risky in democracies because (1) they will always be subordinated to social programs and defense spending (which, by the way, will always increase under pressure from voters to borrow and spend beyond economic capacity) and (2) your recovery during the inevitable default is whatever the people choose to bear (which is, hopefully, a punitive 0%). Good luck trying to make a claim on the government's assets during a default (especially if you are a foreigner).
AmenRA....
yet another awesome bear photo/caption.
Been off the blog for a few days...distracted...
It seems I am going to be buying a new house very soon....so, been occupied.
Matthew, too many signs indicate that the parties involved are just buying time to build firewalls in advance of the Greek default:
In a Bloomberg Global Poll of 1,209 investors released this week, 93 percent of respondents said they expect Greece to default.
Now that it is clear that the fiscal compact will have to be so watered down to avoid violating national laws (in Ireland and elsewhere) that it will be practically useless, Merkel and others realize it is better to pull the bandaid off quickly instead of continuing to bail out Greece for the next few years. Greece cheated on their entrance criteria with their secret loan from GS, so the never even qualified to be in the EMU.
In case you are curious, in 2000 I wrote a paper about the problems of the Euro without a fiscal union: http://erickennedy.org/files/European-Monetary-Union-paper.doc
My conclusion was optimistic because it was 2000 and the bear market was still in it's early stages.
Andy - I hope the house trading goes smoothly.
Two Degrees of separation here on this Golf story...
http://www.golf.com/ap-news/kyle-stanley-builds-five-shot-lead-torrey-pines?sct=hp_t2_a14&eref=sihp
One of the two owners of my company forked over the cash to play in last week's Humana Challenge in Palm Springs. It was a Pro-Am the first three days...he played all three days with 6 different pros.
My boss played with this guy Kyle Stanley....
The first thing he said Monday morning, after he got back, was :"This guy Kyle Stanley is fucking awesome. When he hits the ball it sounds 'different' from anyone else. He has so much length, it's crazy. He's going to win a bunch of tournaments."
My boss is a good golfer. He beat Chad Campbell on the third day, 75 v. 74, thus winning a sidebet with c.campbell and ryan palmer. He is now the owner of two different 20 dollar bills with their signatures (original bet was $200/man, but he let them out for alt. payoff)
Seemed like a lot of money to spend for some rounds of golf...but he had the time of his life....
It's just interesting to me that the one guy he played with, and was astounded by, is now leading in Torrey Pines going into Sunday. I guess we'll find out if he's a "closer" ....
Well, here's a one degree of separation golf story....
I golfed with this kid at Meadowbrook Farms 6 years ago....think he was 10 years old at the time....
He had the most beautiful golf swing I've ever seen on anyone live....
I was a 6 handicap...and this kid was hanging with me (and beating me) from 200 yards away..it was nutz...i was sort of getting mad at first...but then i just came to accept i was in the presence of 'talent.'
The thing I was most impressed with was his demeanor and maturity. He was very polite and professional even at age 10. I remember his name because I knew he was going to be big some day....
Top 10 Amateur in the nation right now...
http://www.khou.com/sports/high-school/Katys-Connor-Black-climbing-national-amateur-golf-rankings-125722933.html
He'll be on the Tour someday.
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