Creditcane™: Volume matters. When it reappears be ready.
SPXTakuri day (body too big for dragonfly doji). Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. Tested and held the minor 38.2% retrace (1314.25). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1308.04). QE2infinity.
DXYSpinning top day (morning star?). Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed the 50.0% minor retrace (79.96). Failing SMA(21). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 81.35).
VIXBearish short day (didn't confirm homing pigeon). Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing all SMA's. Tested and held its 61.8% minor retrace (18.81). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 20.63).
GOLDBearish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Holding above its 50.0% retrace (1655.20). Tested and failed SMA(55). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1655.60). Still above monthly 3LB mid. Must have the precious.
EURUSDSpinning top day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Holding above SMA(21). Tested and failed its 38.2% minor retrace (1.3052). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1.2840).
JNKSpinning top day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and held SMA(233). Holding above its 61.8% retrace (38.86). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 38.85).
10YR YIELDSpinning top day. Holding above SMA(89). Midpoint above EMA(10). Holding above its 0.0% retrace (18.96). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 20.68).
WTIBearish short day. Tested and held SMA(55). Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing its 61.8% retrace (102.10). No dally 3LB changes (reversal is 103.12). Not confirming the monthly 3LB reversal down.
SILVERBearish short day. Tested and held SMA(89). Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and held its 38.2% minor retrace (31.85). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 30.14).
BKXDragonfly doji day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. Failing its 50.0% retrace (43.76). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 42.08).
HYG/LQDSpinning top day. Holding above SMA(21). Midpoint above EMA(10). Holding above its 38.2% retrace (0.7808). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 0.7908).
CRBBullish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still below its 38.2% retrace (325.01). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 315.44).
21 comments:
It looks like SPY is going to fill the only unfilled gap overhead at 132.63 - 133.03. Back on May 19, 2008, it filled the gap from Jan 3-4, 2008 and then turned down. Investor Intelligence bears are back to where they were in May 2008 (29.9%) and the % bulls is even higher (51% vs 46%).
Since the Fed didn't announce QE3 last fall when sentiment was much more negative, it seems unlikely that they will announce it tomorrow when they release their long term forecasts. Maybe there will be a sell-the-news reaction when those forecasts are released like last fall...
Eric K
QE3 is not in the cards. Especially since the manufactured economic numbers make the economy look better than it actually is.
AmenRa - yes, the Fed has no reason to do QE3 now, but a lot of people (even ZeroHedge) expect QE3 this year. I even think it is likely that some form of QE3 will happen from much lower levels. The problem is that all of this talk about how QE3 is a certainty means that if nothing is announced, the Fed statement and forecasts will appear much less accommodating than the market expects. Plus the fact that the Fed forecasts are from all members, not just the voting members.
As for the economy, I went through the old posts from ECRI from the early 2000s, and it was clear that they made their recession forecasts based on the US Long Leading Index. That is why they said there was no recession in summer 2010 -- the USLLI didn't peak until the end of 2010, and has been falling steadily since then. See http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/07/u-s-long-leading-index/ for a chart from summer 2010. They've distracted everyone with their WLI, but the WLI is a short-leading index.
Their recession calls (or warnings) in 1990 and 2000 were 5-6 months before the start of the recession. They were a bit late to call the 2008 recession because the USLLI was so flat and other economies went into a recession after the US. Their credibility would be destroyed if they called a recession that doesn't happen, so that's why they wait until it's baked in the cake before calling it.
Apparently the reason economies either expand or contract but never muddle through is because of the bullwhip effect: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bullwhip_effect
If you'd like to use the iPad app I developed for free, email me at eric @ chart insight and I will send you a coupon code.
QE3 is already hapening (and has been) not so stealthily by way of swaps since at least last October...
Besides that, the LTRO operation from the ECB (which is in effect, and could be ratcheted up to even 3-4x the amounts of previous QE's), is going to continue to be ongoing)...
I don't know why people still keep talking about QE... Oh well, yes I do...
1. because its sheer debt monetization, & IT NEVER STOPPED...
2. It's one of those "jawboning" things that helps keep equity markets afloat...
It's like being a spotter for someone doing a bench press... Dude's trying to bench 400, and you're spotting (feeling like you're giving about 30 pounds of help), but you keep lying & encouraging the guy saying "I'm not helping dude... It's all you, It's all you"...
Probably if they ever do announce a QE here, the equity markets are priced to make it a "sell the news" event...
Since it's an election year... You'll probably start hearing "FED won't make any moves in an election year" (which is also BS)... That's just some kind of claptrap to convince buyers to stay in the market & not panic...
Hell, when I start hearing that, you can be half sure that a big selloff is coming in 5...4...3...2...
Frankly, the thing about the "QE3 or no QE3" argument, the way I see it, is as follows:
There's an overriding tendency, on the part of traders, to simply base the implementation of a QE3 on how well the S&P is doing... Really? It's that simple in their mind... Stocks are doing bad, so that must mean the economy is bad, so we need help... efficient "markets" (so to speak)...
BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!
nothing could be farther from the truth...
I'll give you a little thought experiment...
OK... Toss AAPL, XOM, & say, SPG out of the S&P & see how many points it tanks...
AAPL - is at an all time high (so it's singlehandedly pulling a lot of weight in S&P fluffage)... Is it reflective of a vibrant world economy where everyone has disposable income to buy a new device every 6 months? Or is it because people are on food stamps and use the savings to buy new phones? & because AAPL employs slave labor in China to keep their profit margins up (while Chinese workers are jumping off buildings because of the working conditions)...
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/22/business/apple-america-and-a-squeezed-middle-class.html?_r=2&pagewanted=all
Let's see... Apple is growing revenues to the tune of 66%, while the world economy is barely managing 4% & might dip into recession in many parts)... Extrapolate that math forward... On its present path, that means that by 2026, the GDP of Apple will surpass the GDP of all the world's soverigns combined... Hey man, don't get mad at me... Get mad at the math...
XOM - Yeah... I'm sure that if oil goes to $200 a barrel, then XOM will keep supporting the S&P, right, RIGHT?... Think about that one...
SPG - This is the biggest joke of all... Empty malls, yet the stock is on fire...
---
Yet every trader on the planet thinks "QE" is all about the S&P... Who knows??? Maybe it is... But IF it is... Then it's basing itself on about the most unrealistic aggregation of mispriced assets (in a failing currency) that ever was...
The problem is... If instead, one were to try and implement a QE3 based on REALITY... You'd probably hope for reports that things were deteriorating...
Instead...
O-Clown-O, last night, spent an hour and a half telling everyone how he's finally "fixed" everything and that we're on the way back up... As of this point, rhetorically, they've painted themselves into a corner (and need to stay there - or else risk getting 4 more years of helicopter rides & a tricked out limo)...
Oh... & no sooner do I say it... then it comes out...
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/goldman-now-aggressively-selling-apple-clients-hikes-price-target-600
Great people... There's your QE3... (The squid, shearing the mo-mos [which means "you", cause you have your money with the "mo-mo's"], by cashing out their last pennies...
SOLD TO YOU bitchez!
"...QE3 is already hapening (and has been) not so stealthily by way of swaps since at least last October..."
(ding)(ding)(ding)
~~~
anyone looking-around for 'anything'(more) that
sounds like "The FedRes started QE3"...
is to be, sorely, disappointed..
~~~
as cv-- pointed out ~"you've your 'QE3' right there, bud."
~~~
+
"...Besides that, the LTRO operation from the ECB (which is in effect, and could be ratcheted up to even 3-4x the amounts of previous QE's), is going to continue to be ongoing)..."
~~~
btw, the 'Jetpack(s)' are here..
announced the Verizon Jetpack ™
http://search.yippy.com/search?query=Verizon+Jetpack&tb=sitesearch-all&v%3Aproject=clusty
AAIP
jetpacks... lol
Q: How many Chinese jumped to their deaths in the making of this device that I use to watch movies on demand which feature animals in them whereby the producers assure you that "no animals were harmed in the making of this movie"...
...and the beat goes on...
http://www.finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=BVSN
looks like the 'Shortin' Sticks' were broken out..
ibid.
BTW...
When I typed this...
"...Besides that, the LTRO operation from the ECB (which is in effect, and could be ratcheted up to even 3-4x the amounts of previous QE's), is going to continue to be ongoing..."
I was referring to this...
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/10-trillion-ltro-coming-credit-suisse-hunkers-down-ahead-european-endgame
Which is NOT my "paper napkin", "johnny gut feel" numbers... They were numbers tossed out by Credit Suisse...
All I did was to reflect the swaps pricing valuations & mechanisms, then compare it to the general overall dollar value of what QE1 & 2 were...
I'm going to launch an APPLE ETF.
@Andy T
Well if you ask me (based on the link)...
It basically tells me that Goldman is about to go short...
I think they're 8 for 8 so far in incorrect calls this year (with 2 positions stopped out)...
re:... APPLE ETF, make trading it accessible ONLY from an iPhone or iPad and the price will go up forever!
sent from my Android
Apple stock buyers on crack...
http://www.kickinthehead.org/2010/08/24/caring-for-your-drinking-bird/
Fed: no QE3 (not counting dollar swaps wink wink) and low rates until 2014.
Andy T
An Apple ETF using APPL and it's component makers is probably out there somewhere.
Gold would like to thank the FOMC for releasing their minutes.
S&P 500
1322.26
+7.61 +0.58%
one more day like today's..
will be @ that ~1330 level..
it's rather amazing, the ~whole World has 'split a gut' on 'broken "Assets"'..
a nominal rally in 'Equities', and ~everybody is chirping like they've, just, slammed back a glass of 'Instant Smile'<(ref. "Twilight Zone")
Gold
1697.53
+31.97 +1.92%
too bad(?), for the 'Paper', but the SPX:GOLD ratio is back at March '009 lows, no?
ibid.
http://search.yippy.com/search?query=Instant+Smile+Twilight+Zone&tb=sitesearch-all&v%3Aproject=clusty
Bear roadkill.
http://www.wtvr.com/news/wtvr-food-lion-stores-to-close-20120112,0,1079707.story
RICHMOND, Va. (WTVR) - The company that owns the Food Lion grocery store chain announced Thursday morning it would close 113 underperforming stores in the United States.
...Mish's comments on JC Penney and how they are not able to sell unless they go WalMart was also interesting. The Food Lion here in these area is one of those closing...
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