AmenRa's Corner 1.26.12



Creditcane™: Tick tock. Tick tock. The countdown has begun.


SPX
Dark cloud cover day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. Tested and held the minor 38.2% retrace (1314.25). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1314.50). QE2infinity.



DXY
Bearish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed the 61.8% minor retrace (79.60). Tested and failed SMA(55). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 80.22).



VIX
Bullish piercing day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing all SMA's. Tested and failed its 61.8% minor retrace (18.81). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 20.47).



GOLD
Spinning top day (evening star?). Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and held its 38.2% retrace (1718.10). Now above all SMA's. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1664.00). Still above monthly 3LB mid. Must have the precious.



EURUSD
Spinning top day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and failed SMA(55). Tested and failed its 50.0% minor retrace (1.3137). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1.3020).



JNK
Spinning top day (evening star?). Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. Tested and failed its 38.2% minor retrace (39.62). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 39.12).



10YR YIELD
Bearish short day. Tested and failed SMA(21). Midpoint below EMA(10). Holding above its 0.0% retrace (18.96). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 20.68).



WTI
Doji day. Tested and held SMA(55). Midpoint at EMA(10). Failing its 61.8% retrace (102.10). No dally 3LB changes (reversal is 103.12). Not confirming the monthly 3LB reversal down.



SILVER
Spinning top day (evening star?). Holding above SMA(89). Midpoint above EMA(10). Holding above its 38.2% minor retrace (31.85). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 31.67).



BKX
Bearish long day (doji days resolved). Midpoint at EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. Tested and failed its 50.0% retrace (43.76). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 42.08).



HYG/LQD
Dark cloud cover day. Tested and held SMA(21). Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and failed its 50.0% retrace (0.7942). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 0.7908).



USDJPY
Bearish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and held SMA(144). Tested and failed its 61.8% minor retrace (77.443). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 75.52).



EEM
Bearish thrusting day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Holding above all SMA's. Holding above its 50.0% retrace (41.81). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 41.41).



XLE
Dark cloud cover day (almost bearish engulfing). Still above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and failed its 0.0% retrace (72.90). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 71.29).




IT HAS BEGUN. YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED.

41 comments:

Anonymous said...

04:37PM Netflix shares mount comeback on results at MarketWatch

http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=NFLX

NFLX ! Back from 'the Dead'..~

52W Range 62.37 - 304.79

(from)52W Low 86.00%

Price ~116.01
~~~

http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=AZO&ty=c&ta=1&p=d

52W Range 246.26 - 350.55

Price 347.91

AZO has been 'Strong'..

~~~

also, re:
http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=ZNGA

some dude, yesterday, was "CCalling" me, rec'd ZNGA - on the 'legalizing "on-line Gaming"-angle..

pre-'lock-up expiry', mind you..

to say nothing of..

P/S 8.03

Income -180.05M

to begin with..
~~~

AAIP

Eric K. said...

AmenRa, I can't find the SPX gap you mention at 1090.10-1093.61 -- what day did that happen?

The only SPY gaps up from the 2009 low are:

126.33 - 126.43
117.60 - 118.82
105.98 - 106.66
90.69 - 91.81 (905.84 - 910.15 on SPX)

That oldest gap is the only one that is visible in the SPX chart, although ironically current sources for historical SPY data don't show that gap -- it shows an open of 91.81 vs previous day's high of 90.69, but a low of 90.6795. I checked my notes from that month and the gap up after Intel earnings was clear in a SPY chart from that time, although strangely even the same source now shows the strange low of 90.6795. I thought bad data got fixed over time, but apparently not...

Looks like a GDP report below the 3% consensus could be an important catalyst. 3% seems really high, but since the numbers are usually revised lower it can be a "made up number", like Bernanke said about owner's equivalent rent. :-)

Thanks to the anonymous poster for mentioning that Dahlquist paper. It would be interesting if the analysis examined whether a gap in a company's stock occurs on a day when the market doesn't gap in the same direction, e.g. yesterday's gap up in Apple. As the paper mentioned, some days in the sample during the 2008-2009 bear market had hundreds of gap down stocks. Many of the gaps that were stock specific weren't filled, as I can tell you from an open order to buy LINE at 11.50 that expired unfilled...

cv said...

Went and saw the movie "The Artist" last night...

ABSOLUTELY worth seeing... It was the best & most original piece of cinema movie making that I've seen in quite awhile... Only ONE word of dialogue uttered in the whole 2 hour movie...

BRILLIANT!

cv said...

I was also watching the Joe Pa (public) eulogy today...

I feared worse, but it was actually not that bad...

Phil Knight made an appearance as well... I rolled my eyes at first but then found myself utterly captivated...

2 huge surprises in 2 days for cv...

cv said...

This isn't the whole thing... but anyway...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nPpVJlmtA4A

(amazing how fast stuff gets on the internet now ~ this is just from a few hours ago)...

cv said...

I'm guessing that Phil Knight doesn't regularly watch TITANS OF JOURNALISM...

Like Keith Olberman...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=swYgBglxJK8&feature=endscreen&NR=1

But I also guess that there are certain BLOGS who are KO devotees (from where they spew their impeccable logic streams)...

cv said...

...in other news...

all is well...

http://www.infowars.com/video-military-helicopters-conduct-covert-exercises-over-u-s-bank-building/

AmenRa said...

Eric K

That gap was on 9/2/10-9/3/10.

AmenRa said...

Remember the "red light" in the basement parties: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rZHgUQqiWDI

Eric said...

Ok, I see it now - in SPY, it's from 109.49 (9/2 high) to 109.95 (9/3 low), although it was mostly filled on 9/7 so the remaining gap is 109.49 - 109.55 (or 1090.10 - 1,091.15)

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=^GSPC&a=08&b=1&c=2010&d=08&e=17&f=2010&g=d

Gaps that are mostly filled seem to be less of a target than completely unfilled gaps. Still, I'll have to figure out why my code didn't catch that gap.

AmenRa said...

Eric K

Trading into the gap is expected. If it holds then it becomes more significant.

AmenRa said...

IMHO

Eric said...

It makes sense that the gap is more significant resistance; it might be less likely to be filled later, though.

Andy T said...

Anyone else notice the steady decline in CNBC?

Seems like they're going out of their way to be "entertaining"....

It's getting worse and worse.

Steve Liesman is cheezball.

Anonymous said...

Quotage..

"Why do we love this trial by jury? Because it prevents the hand of oppression
from cutting you off ... This gives me comfort—that, as long as I have
existence, my neighbors will protect me."
-- Patrick Henry
(1736-1799) US Founding Father
Source: 3 J. Elliot, The Debates In The Several States Conventions On The Adoption Of The Federal Constitution 545, 546 (1901).
http://quotes.liberty-tree.ca/quote_blog/Patrick.Henry.Quote.8B2B


"Can we assume that a thing is right if it is legal? But slavery was once
legal; Nazism was legal. Well, can we assume a thing is right if it is endorsed
by majority rule? But a lynch mob is majority rule. Is a thing sure to be
right, then, if it comes about through the democratic process? But fascist
dictator Juan Perón of Argentina was democratically elected by majority rule on
two occasions. . . . Well, how about the Constitution? But again we run into
difficulties, for the Constitution can be amended to say anything the society
wishes it to say. Suppose, for example, the Constitution were amended to permit
the lynching of blacks—would this practice become ethically correct merely
because the Constitution permitted it? The moral basis of capitalism is the
right of each individual to live his own life, for his own sake."
-- R.W. Grant
Source: The Incredible Bread Machine: A Study of Capitalism, Freedom, and the State
http://quotes.liberty-tree.ca/quote_blog/R.W..Grant.Quote.8AFE


"Jury lawlessness is the greatest corrective of law in its actual
administration. The will of the state at large imposed on a reluctant
community, the will of a majority imposed on a vigorous and determined
minority, find the same obstacle in the local jury that formerly confronted
kings and ministers."
-- U.S. Court of Appeals District of Columbia
Source: U.S. v. Dougherty, 473 F.2d 1113, 1130 at note 32 (1972).
http://quotes.liberty-tree.ca/quote_blog/U.S..Court.of.Appeals.District.of.Columbia.Quote.8B8A

ibid.

Anonymous said...

Anyone else notice the steady decline in CNBC?

Seems like they're going out of their way to be "entertaining"....

It's getting worse and worse.

Steve Liesman is cheezball.
~~

x2

though, you may be going too EZ on LIESman..

and, worse, to see the 'Changes' that B. Quick has gone through..

some 'Swallowing' is, obviously, bad for one's Self..

big reason why I was 'happy' to see Jesse Eisinger split from that 'Clown-Show'..

AAIP

cv said...

"Anyone else notice the steady decline in CNBC... LIESman?"

"Fat, drunk, & stupid is no way to go through life"

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u1hnwvWhbJw&feature=related

AmenRa said...

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/iran-turns-embargo-table-pass-law-halting-all-crude-exports-europe
Iran Turns Embargo Tables: To Pass Law Halting All Crude Exports To Europe

"You mess wit me, I mess wit you."

cv said...

@Amen

Seems to me... Ghadaffi & Hussein traveled down that same road not too long ago...

Could it be that there is no "Rothschild" controlled central bank associated with any of the above mentioned nominees?

No... couldn't be... "Self destructive Johnny gut feel, nickle melting, unIbombers", like myself, are awash in conspiracy theories...

Just so you know WHY I wear a tinfoil hat... Well... It was my research friends at CAL BERKELY who convinced me to do so...

http://berkeley.intel-research.net/arahimi/helmet/

The helmets amplify frequency bands that coincide with those allocated to the US government between 1.2 Ghz and 1.4 Ghz. According to the FCC, These bands are supposedly reserved for ''radio location'' (ie, GPS), and other communications with satellites (see, for example, [3]). The 2.6 Ghz band coincides with mobile phone technology. Though not affiliated by government, these bands are at the hands of multinational corporations.

Whocoodanode?

AmenRa said...

Great. Now all the talk is of the Facebook IPO possibly happening next week. Just enough BS to keep minds away from the coming Greece default.

cv said...

Frankly though...

I'm more partial to BREAD HELMETS (as opposed to tin foil hats)...

I like USING MY LOAF...

http://www.motifake.com/bread-helmets-bread-egypt-protest-stupid-helmet-demotivational-posters-133956.html

cv said...

@Amen (3:35)

Now all the talk is of the Facebook IPO possibly happening next week

Oh yeah... That ought to go down about as smoothly as the Blackstone IPO... (if your name is Steve Schwartzman or Sean Parker, that is)...

...a round of "Apple-tini's on the house please!

cv said...

Rather ironic that the SOPA bill & a Facebook IPO (for Sean parker), sort of collide...

Don't let any of that 'socioeconomic' graffiti distract anyone from intense study on anything though...

QQQQ said...

Ra, todays SPX hammer is bullish in a downtrend but is it bearish in an uptrend? I be asking because 18 bot too many SDS calls near 1325 and he may be abit ascared to keep them for a long time.

cv, maybe living in a storage container would be better than a tin-foil hat?

AAibid, re: that bird, the "swallow", nests with one of the flock of CNBC. And Liesman, he wins the ID ten T award IMO... ID10T

QQQQ said...

oops, hammer broke, but would it have been?

AmenRa said...

QQQQ

Hammer/Hanging man. One occurs in a downtrend the other in an uptrend. Today doesn't look like a hanging man but a bearish short day (which confirmed the dark cloud cover btw).

QQQQ said...

-ding-ding-ding-
50/200 MA gap now down to $2

AmenRa said...

QQQQ

But for the SPX to close lower while EURUSD is ripping shorts to pieces is odd.

cv said...

@Q's

I've seen those before... I think they're cool as s***...

$GASO bitchez!

cv said...

or... more rightfully...

"Jerry cans" bitchez!

cv said...

All I can think of when I hear hammer broke, or Hammer/Hanging man is this...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=otCpCn0l4Wo&ob=av2e

cv said...

Frankly ~ when I hear of THE DOLLAR, or the S&P... I kind of think of that video too...

QQQQ said...

Thx Ra, I'm trying to not see/use anything other than a few indicators in this discomboomerated world economy/markets... it has messed with my trades past few months. I know I started shorting to early (1285ish), but now may be on the right side (crosses fingers over the weekend).

but, next month I'm feeling I may go long for some surreal reason.

cv said...

Sure beats the crap out of "Vanilla Ice" & "New Kids on the Block" though (for propensity towards longevity)... Right?

So we have THAT going for us!

Eric said...

Facebook is just filling their S-1. The IPO will take months to pull off, even for all of their hype.

Part of the issue is that Facebook now has more investors (500) than a privately held company is allowed to have without filling with the SEC. The S-1 doesn't obligate them to go public; they just can't keep their numbers a secret anymore. The SEC especially wants their numbers public because of all of the rich investors who bought share from ex-employees via SecondMarket or SharesPost.

cv said...

@Amen

But for the SPX to close lower while EURUSD is ripping shorts to pieces is odd...

When you come to the moment of "acknowledgement" that Euro:Gold is joined at the hip (since mid last year) & that GOLD is leading the Euro around by the nose...

Because... well.. The EURO "is" the NWO's test baby currency...

...ALL WILL BE REVEALED

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hAzdgU_kpGo&ob=av2n

Anonymous said...

Q4,

LIESman = ID ten T

Roger that.

ibid.

Anonymous said...

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/index.html?s=NYMEX_NG.H12.E&t=&a=&w=&v=d6

2.773 +0.119 (+4.50%)

that 50dma is some 'strong magnet/medicine'..

ibid.

cv said...

@AAIP

I'm still going to be taking the Patriots and laying the points in the SuperBowl at the moment...

Anyone dare to challenge?

cv said...

before "jumping"...

recall that: (on this blog)

- In the WILD CARD round... I took the Texans, Saints, & Giants to COVER... I also took the broncos & the points...

- In the DIVISIONAL round... I made "no bet" on the Ravens GIVING points, but I took the Ravens on the money line & laid 4-1 (real silver) to Andy T... Mt "pre-season" (go to the SuperBowl) pick, FAILED (in the last 9 seconds of play ~ on the road)... MY BAD...

- In the CHAMPIONSHIP round... I took my Ravens (who were paired up against the Patriots), BOTH my "pre-season" picks to compete in the AFC Championship... & the points... I won the silver (bet), but LOST my "heart" team going to the SuperBowl at the expense of my "predicted" team (at the beginning of the season) to win it all...

---

So... Who's going to take the Giants here (vs. CV ~ which, entitles you to a full week of STAT BARRAGE to tell you WHY that's not going to happen)???

If you lose... You can always "double down" on going against my OSCARS 2012 picks (coming next month)... No problem there... You're only going against 11 out of 12 correct picks over the past 2 years (the only "incorrect" narrowed down to a coin flip, whereby, I made the stupid mistake of using EMOTION to pick)...

- Or... You could just tell me why the Euro has nothing to do with Gold (the same way that "central bankers" have nothing to do with anything)...

Have a nice weekend folks! :-)

Anonymous said...

yeah, the Pats - the pins is, probably, the Right Call..

but, for my own Account, I'll be w/ the NYG..

I'm a secret Coughlin 'fan', and don't care much for Belichick (sp?) the NE Coach..

AAIP

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