The new FOMC voting members...
Creditcane™: "Wall of worry" or "Staircase to hell"?
SPXBullish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. Tested and held the minor 38.2% retrace (1314.25). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1314.50). QE2infinity.
DXYBearish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed the 61.8% minor retrace (79.60). Tested and failed SMA(255). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 80.61).
VIXBearish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing all SMA's. Tested and failed its 61.8% minor retrace (18.81). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 20.47).
GOLDBullish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Holding above its 50.0% retrace (1655.20). Tested and held SMA(55,89,144). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1659.90). Still above monthly 3LB mid. Must have the precious.
EURUSDHanging man day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Holding above SMA(21). Tested and held its 38.2% minor retrace (1.3052). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1.2937).
JNKBullish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and held SMA(233). Holding above its 61.8% retrace (38.86). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 38.96).
10YR YIELDBearish short day. Tested and held SMA(89). Midpoint above EMA(10). Holding above its 0.0% retrace (18.96). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 20.68).
WTIBullish short day. Tested and held SMA(55). Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing its 61.8% retrace (102.10). No dally 3LB changes (reversal is 103.12). Not confirming the monthly 3LB reversal down.
SILVERBullish long day. Tested and held SMA(89). Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and held its 38.2% minor retrace (31.85). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 30.54).
BKXDoji day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. Failing its 50.0% retrace (43.76). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 42.08).
HYG/LQDBullish long day. Tested and held SMA(21). Midpoint above EMA(10). Holding above its 38.2% retrace (0.7808). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 0.7908).
COPPERBullish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and held SMA(144). Holding above its 38.2% retrace (3.684). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 3.753).
TLTDoji day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed SMA(89). Tested and failed its 50.0% minor retrace (117.18). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 123.87).
IT HAS BEGUN. YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED.
20 comments:
SPY is starting to fill that gap (132.63 - 133.03) with today's high of 132.87. It just needs to rise 47 cents from the close to fill it. You might not think the gaps in the SPY matter, but it is striking that all of the overhead gaps in the SPY were filled before it turned down after May 20, 2008.
you mentioned those gaps a few months Eric...
Good call.
Wife's gettting tired of the shak we're in ...just got approved for a home loan...
my credit score is ~760
$350K loan...3.9% offer on a 30 year.
That's nucking futs.
And that rate is up from a weeks ago.
Gold bulls got paid off again...thanks Ben!
Eric K
The gap up (111.68-111.98) on the weekly chart (9/10/10-9/17/10) served as support when the market turned lower from 8/12/11-10/7/11.
AT,
not sure when the last time was that you 'stroked' a Home Loan/Bought a House, but, if it wasn't 'yesterday', you might want to check into whether you are, now, considered a 'First Time Homebuyer' (sounds strange, but, really, only a # of Years needs to pass--then you re-gain your 'Virginity'(so to speak..))
w/that FHA (ol' Uncle Sucker) is THE 'sub-Prime'/Hi LTV 'Lender' in town..
LSS: you can go to ~97.5% LTV for a modest 'premium' paid..
with Rates so low, I'd think it worthwhile to Borrow (on the House) to the Hilt..
doesn't mean you can't the (otherwise) 'Downpayment' in Ca$h/eqiv...
anyway, something you might 'tamp down' & Ignite..~
AAIP
I find it odd that SPX is trending up on the weekly 3LB but SPY is still trending down.
SPY gaps do seem to be a magnet, but after they are filled the momentum often reverses.
Amazingly, the only other gap in the 2008 bear market was the big October 2008 gap at 110. Once it was filled, the SPY fell 5%. Then it took 4 months to get to 115 (January 2010) before another trip to 105.
DeMark was calling for a SPX top this week around 1342:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-20/demark-says-s-p-500-may-reach-1-342-by-next-week-before-falling.html
http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/gail-tverberg/2012/01/25/more-reasons-why-we-are-reaching-limits-to-growth
More Reasons Why We are Reaching Limits to Growth
Resets are a part of nature.
that's interesting hoffer. silly ol' me was thinking old fashioned with 20% down....
It's been 11 years since I bot a house.
The demise of the Petro Dollar?
India to buy oil from Iran using gold & rupees.
Russia to trade with Iran using ruble/rial.
China & Iran to use an oil bartering system.
China & Russia drop dollar in bilateral trade.
Iraq didn't have allies. Since the petro dollar is one of the main reasons for the dollar having reserve status then what happens when 40% of the world's oil is traded using something else?
AT,
thinking about that (FHA), some more..
there is 'one' hitch..
Loan Limit..
seems like ~271,050 for Harris County/HOUSTON-SUGAR LAND-BAYTOWN, TX (MSA)
https://entp.hud.gov/idapp/html/hicost1.cfm
https://entp.hud.gov/idapp/html/hicostlook.cfm
not sure if that'll cover the 'shak' that the good Woman had in mind..
though, there is, always, this route..
http://search.yippy.com/search?query=REO+Houston+Real+Estate&tb=sitesearch-all&v%3Aproject=clusty
REO/'Bank Owned' RE, too..
or, 'Vanilla' "Foreclosures"..
http://search.yippy.com/search?input-form=clusty-simple&v%3Asources=webplus-ns-aaf&v%3Aproject=clusty&query=Foreclosures+Houston+Real+Estate
though, to me, most importantly, with any RE, be sure to have it thoroughly 'Inspected' (Structure/Land/and 'Paperwork'), as well as the local 'governmental "Authority" (Fiscal soundness)..
I know, for me, 'Nasty Surprises' are worse when they could have been 'foreseen'..
but, past any/all of that, 'Happy Hunting'~! w/ a bit of Luck, and an Eye open, it should turn out well~!
AAIP
"...With gold and silver exploding to the upside on the Fed announcement, today King World News interviewed legendary Jim Sinclair, to get his take on where things are headed. Sinclair told KWN he now expects mainstream entities to enter the gold market. Here is what Sinclair had to say: “Today is an important day. There are many days we talk but this is a mile-marker. What the Fed did today is they turned on the light of what will be QE to infinity. Today the light went on with regards to the intentions of the Fed. They did that for very specific reasons, we have troubles people can’t see and this is one of the ways out.”..."
"...What the Fed did today is they turned on the light of what will be QE to infinity..."
http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2012/1/25_Jim_Sinclair_-_Mainstream_Entities_Will_Now_Enter_Gold_Market.html
??
Look at a monthly chart of the Baltic Dry Index. It's getting crushed.
Ra, almost looks like a misprint?
18's 1325 satisfied, now where.
Remember 1333.58 is 100% from the low of 666.79. Resistance?
Finally, the SPY gap has been filled and the market is starting to sell off. When I emailed Andy about the gap on Oct 19th, SPY was at 121 and there were two gaps (117.25-117.67 and 113.63-133.03) and now both of them have been filled. The only remaining gap is the pre-QE2 105.98-106.66 gap. I bet that lower gap gets filled over the next 2 years, and that will also signal a reversal in trend for a while. Here's the chart:
http://erickennedy.org/files/spy-gaps.png
BTW, I double-checked and none of those gaps were from ex-dividend dates. SPX never shows gaps, which is why I look at SPY. Those gaps may be hard to see for a human, but it was easy to program my charting app to spit out the gaps. You can bet that some trading algorithms have calculated the probability that a gap is filled within a certain timeframe based on the current momentum and distance away, and trade accordingly.
There is a disadvantage to continuing ZIRP through 2014 -- home buyers don't feel any urgency to buy if they know long term rates won't rise for a few years. I certainly felt rates were going to continue going up off of the May 2003 low, so that prompted me to buy something sooner than I would have otherwise. (Luckily, I got my investment out in 2009 before continued declines occurred. A unit with the same layout as mine sold for 9% less than my 2003 purchase price. Yikes!)
I have friends now that had said they wanted to buy something before rates go up. Now that the Fed has said rates won't go up for 2 years, it takes away some of the demand to buy now.
Eric K
I just took a look at gaps on the SPX. There were four gap ups (rising windows). 1090.10-1093.61, 1183.56-1183.75, 1287.17-1289.14, 1312.70-1319.12. All (except the first) were closed during the Aug 2011-Oct 2011 down move. So that's would be my initial target on the next move lower.
Eric
you may be interested in reading this paper:
http://www.ndtv.com/video/player/ndtv-special-ndtv-profit/julie-dahlquist-on-gap-trading/202054
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