DXY (weekly info)new low 74.83
trend=down
low= 74.83
rev= 76.40; mid= 75.62
2009 low of 74.17 has been breached. Next target are the two lows in 2008 of 71.31 and 70.70. It's nothing but air down to those levels. As in free fall.
Gold/Silver Ratio (weekly info)new low 34.744
trend=down
low= 34.744
rev= 38.361; mid= 36.531
This move down was the week ending 8/27/10. Guess what else happened that week? Gold's move to 1500 is nothing compared to silver's move to 45. This ratio is rapidly approaching its old ratio of 16:1. Using todays numbers where gold is 1500 then silver would be 93.75. Or with silver at 45 then gold would be 720. Don't see either of those happening anytime soon. So gold at 1600 and silver at 100 may be in the works.
104 comments:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g04aCp3ej-I&feature=related
They're just throwing a party in my honor this week. Nothing to see here. Move along.
http://specials.msn.com/A-List/Money/World-currencies.aspx?cp-documentid=28436677&imageindex=1>1=39002
Lefty,
Once you finally get up, explain to me what you seeing regarding treasuries. China says they are going to decrease their holdings, and S&P issues their warning. Additionally the market rallies. Why isn't the 10 year at 3.6?
...This assumes you actually work...
LB,
what's your take on the Short position in CIM?
CIM CHIMERA INV CORP 54,072,363 36,632,326 19,067,025
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-13/new-york-stock-exchange-short-interest-as-of-march-31.html?cmpid=yhoo
AAIP
Silver unbelievable. Very powerful.
@silverspoonman
Cv's prediction is that all the people trying to get on board "late" to the PAPER silver market are going to have something similar to this happen to them...
Online poker players fear for six-figure bankrolls
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/42696271/ns/us_news-life/
DXY got below 74 in the AH and silver above 46 in the AH. Something bad this way comes.
...of course, the 'nagging' (& all too obvious)question remains...
The dude in the foto of that link (8:22) is apparently sitting on the roof of his apartment...
Wait for it, wait for it... IN VEGAS!
So WTF is this moron doing playing ONLINE POKER when he has a whole city full of suckers from LA, and/or in town for conventions just waiting to hand him over their cash at one of the many casinos right below his feet?
Here's the multiple choice QUIZ...
A) He's a tool
B) He's a tool
C) He's a tool
D) A&B of above
E) B&C of above
F) A&C of above
G) 'All' of the above
Initial claims 403k down from 416k (revised from 412k). Expectations were for 390k.
DXY got below 74 in the AH and silver above 46 in the AH. Something bad this way comes.
"When you come to a fork in the road... Take it"
"Predictions are tough... especially ones about the future"...
@Amen
I thought this chart was interesting...
INFLATION ADJUSTED SPOT SILVER (1975-present)...
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/bernanke/gc%201_10.png
---
I think the INFL ADJ gold would be around $2400 as we speak...
CV,
The reason people play(ed) poker on-line is because you can get more hands in. You can play 10 games at a time if you want to, ore more, and if you are good, that means more money faster. Can't replicate that at the casino no matter how many dumb tourists are there.
@ben22
You can play 10 games at a time if you want to, ore more, and if you are good, that means more money faster. Can't replicate that at the casino no matter how many dumb tourists are there.
Your point is well taken...
But CV can't resist the temptation to make a funny :-)...
In the end though, too...
If it turns out that all these people with online account balances can't ACCESS their winnings... Then maybe the 'slow and sure' way of playing actual hands in the casinos with the dumb tourists was the way to go...
I guess it all depends on whether they get paid their money or not... Bernie Mafoff's clients may have some stories to tell about that...
CV -- so...long LVS?
Gotta go peeps... Busy today...
I've been working on some threads for my 'new role' here at the blog...
Kind of the "Weekend Anchor" (emphasis on ANCHOR - which can have multiple meanings)...
In the forefront will be my Kentucky Derby picks... (I'd been talking about "Flashpoint" earlier this spring, but he may not end up making the final entry... NEHRO is high on my radar screen as well)... Peeps were talking up Uncle Mo like he was the 2nd coming of Secretariat (but CV never took an interest there)...
Here's a decent link of who 'may' run for the roses... (for all you 'horsetraders' out there)...
http://www.horseracingnation.com/blogs/zatt/The_2011_Kentucky_Derby_Dialed_Ins_the_Favorite_123
In other interesting news...
The NFL has announced it's 2011 Schedule (assuming it has a players association to play the games)...
WEEK 1 features...
The New York Giants will visit the Washington Redskins and the New York Jets will host the Dallas Cowboys on Sept. 11, marking the 10th anniversary of the terrorist attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon.
So... The "bread & circuses" (which may be no more are scheduled to BEGIN (or NOT) on the 10th anniversary of 9/11...
Arguably it would be a worse tragedy than 9/11 itself if the league has not arrived at a settlement by then...
You can't make this stuff up...
CV
happy birthday bruce!
@Jennifer
CV -- so...long LVS?
Could also be interpreted as...
"So long... LVS" (as in cya later)
HOW IN THE WORLD DID YOU KNOW THIS IS MY BIRTHDAY?
That is a little scary...thanks for the note though...
...If I'm lucky I'll get spanked when I get home...
somebody must have let it slip in years (how time flies..) past?
btw -
lb's probably out early, shopping for your present.
Wishing you a great spanking, Bruce!! Hope you have a fun birthday : )
I really don't think they're going to bust this S&P500 out above the highs. They won't "break it out" unless they can get immediate emotional follow through the next day.
Alas, tomorrow is a Holiday, right?
something for aapl lovers
iPhone keeps record of everywhere you go
at the end of the article, the guardian lists other "privacy"-related revelations of recent times, ending with eric schmidt's in 2009:
'If you have something that you don't want anyone to know, maybe you shouldn't be doing it in the first place. If you really need that kind of privacy, the reality is that search engines – including Google – do retain this information for some time and it's important, for example, that we are all subject in the United States to the Patriot Act and it is possible that all that information could be made available to the authorities.'
"His words provoked an outcry from privacy rights campaigners, who pointed out that privacy is a right, and that it protects every citizen from abuses by those in power."
quels naifs!
The Silver RSI pegged out on fresh high...it's very "overbot," but that kind of action is not "peaking action." It seems like it takes bearish RSI divergence to peak a market; so, that means after some kind of "breather," we'll likely set another high down the road.
Bruce,
Happy Birthday man, have a great one. Hope you have the day off from the mine to enjoy.
[IM]http://i54.tinypic.com/2a6s27r.png[/IM]
Happy birthday Bruce!
Take some time out from the salt mine and spend it in the silver mine.
eh, guess the charts won't work in the threads here, oh well.
AT agree, thinking more sideways 1305-1332, sold 1/4 more SSO calls, not greedy, hold last 1/4 position. Frik'n Prez is in the town I'm working in today, have 1/2 paid day off... hehe (more possible trading for me)
B22, try < img > or might have to do something with <src img ???, not really sure though
Happy birthday Bruce!
not sure Q's....normally you need to take the G's out....gotta go for a while, will try later.
ben22
That line in the middle is around 8500 for the DJIA. So the excess from 1995 to 2009 is over with?
for aapl lovers - who knew?
iPhone keeps record of everywhere you go
"Privacy fears raised as researchers reveal file on iPhone that stores location coordinates and timestamps of owner's movements"
Link to ben22's pic: http://i54.tinypic.com/2a6s27r.png
I'm going to do it. I'm going to sell some silver. Not alot, but some. Because I loath the thought of making money.
"I'm going to do it. I'm going to sell some silver."
Better sell it for food instead of confetti. At least you can eat that.
Unless you're a hamster and drive a Kia.
Thanks, guys and dolls.
Actually, I finish today about 1. Going to try to kick my brother's behind in tennis this afternoon, but it won't be easy. He used to play in a club in Kalifornia, and his first serve tends to be wicked.
GERMAN CHOCOLATE CAKE tonight! (Before the spanking)....
(St. Peter serves this before people enter the pearly gates....but only if they've been extra good...)
If CSCO closes lower than 17 making another new weekly low then its 3LB reversal will be 17.12. Its chances of a reversal are higher since the reversal price will be so close.
@qqqqtrader (10:36)
Here's what you're missing by not being at the O-BOMB-us rally.
Obama to supporters: I understand your frustration
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/us_obama
See that? He understands your frustration. So you have that going for you.
Ra,
oh, don't put much weight into that man, just playing around,that's the supercycle channel going back to 1900....it could be re-drawn other ways, drawing it that way might be some creating channeling.....see BIASED.
Still, if AT's count is correct, and I think it is, there is a big C wave coming at some point in the next 1-2 years, might look sort of like that, probably not that deep though.
Ra,
here's the bigger view of the same chart:
[IMG]http://i56.tinypic.com/978oeb.png[/IMG]
@qqqqtrader (add to 11:07)
In similar news, let's see how 'Illinois Tool' is trading today.
http://finviz.com/screener.ashx?t=ITW
@ben
"it could be re-drawn other ways, drawing it that way might be some creating channeling.....see BIASED"
Could also be working the 3rd peak in 3 peaks & a domed house, so who knows?
@ Anon 11:07
Obamaquote...
""The deficit is real, our debt is real. We've got to do something about it. But how we do it is going to make a huge difference," Obama said during a smaller, high-dollar fundraiser Wednesday night."
OK, his 3, not 1, not 2 but 3 C5-A's flew into Reno last 2 days to drop off his Suburbans, limos and stuff so he can visit a small company and talk about the deficit, and collect a few fundrasing bucks. How much did this cost the taxpayers so he can get $$$ for his campaign? It's a shame, really is.
yeah, it could be that, but there are some issues there, like
1. that pattern is being widely discussed so should one discount it?
2. 3 peaks and a dh could simply be part of a triple top or a head and shoulders pattern, bulkowski couldn't find enough examples for his encyclopedia to record them (3 peaks and a dh), so it's hard to understand the value of the pattern today, we've discussed the giant decade long H&S before, that's a more accurate pattern for trading results, so I'd give that more weight than the 3 peaks.
3. 3 peaks and a DH have 28 points that need to occur to complete "the pattern"....that's a shitload, so in between there would seem to be a lot more effective ways to trade trends within the pattern.
still, none of that changes the fact that it *could be that pattern
but of course, here's where I can illustrate that patterns aren't so easy that a grandma can do it, and a computer isn't going to help you with this either....
@qqqq
Meanwhile, back at Andrews, Michelle...in "her" 737...was enjoying a tryst with another aircraft in the same landing pattern. Off for some bling and fling with her pals, no doubt. No one will ever know for sure.
And speaking of pals...didn't one of Obama's best friends (the family they spent Xmas with).. get picked up for soliciting a "ho" in Hawaii?
Not that I'm into gossip, or anything.
@ben22 (11:32)
Ditto that (your more precise definition of 3 peaks and a dh).
I just tossed that out there as an example of what i think you meant when you used the term "BIASED" in the previous comment.
iow, the first link presented was without comment. So that basically means a reader will look at it and 'see what they see'.
Of course it's hard to ignore any lines that are drawn on a chart. Furthermore, that's a chart going back to, what? 1950 or something? So the candles are 'monthly' candles.
My first thought when I looked at it was trying to count the candles that it hugged those lines (I think I counted 6 or 7 of them at one point that were right on the line). Which means 6-7 months of consolidating that price channel (if it in fact is).
Anyway, my point was, you're right! Many or most 'chart looks' are BIASED or predisposed to the viewers opinion.
@qqqqtrader (11:31)
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-443pApVA8qI/TZ0nBTneq7I/AAAAAAAADF0/lu7pZMdXEWw/s1600/cope.JPG
Hamptons home sales down "due to snow".
BUT surely, Lloyd would take his helicopter?
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-21/hamptons-home-sales-fall-most-since-2009-as-snow-impedes-buyers.html
Marky,
The 5% short interest position in CIM actually makes LB look forward to some wailing and gnashing of teeth when Cold Steel comes to visit holders of those positions. The resulting squeezage might be quite amusing. So why are so many short?
Shorting REITs like CIM is predicated on a) increased rates at the long end, b) a sharp increase in mortgage defaults and/or c) a decrease in the dividend payout.
There is a 4.5% short position in NLY as well, and an almost 8% short interest in CYS, a more highly leveraged REIT.
I think a lot of these shorts are the same people who are short the long bond, and they may well find themselves thrown under the bus if we have a summer of slowing economy and steady to lower mtg rates. As long as MBS are stable, these REITs will keep paying and sooner or later investors are going to discover the joys of yield.
Bruce
It's been rather a discombobulating week or two since the Goldman downgrade of Q1 GDP, which I think was a pivotal event in the bond market for now. The 10y yield is well below its 2011 peak which was reached in February. The long bond is at 4.46% right now, also 20 bps or so below its peak yield. A glance at the TLT chart suggests that this is now constructive and we think one should look to build positions in Treasuries this Spring on weakness (or equity market exuberance).
Now, the S&P downgrade we think is utterly meaningless. Market participants place zero value on the analysis of this agency. As you can see from the market's reaction this week.
So to sum up, we are not especially bullish or bearish Treasuries right here. We do have 19% fixed income, of which 12% are Treasuries. We will nibble on weakness, especially in the long end, on the expectation of steady or lower yields this summer. If there is another "Death of Treasuries" moment that drives yields sharply higher, we would buy heavily.
We do NOT expect to see a 4% 10y or a 5% 30y this summer, in part b/c Treasuries remain a haven for those bond market participants such as banks in Greece, Portugal, Spain, and Ireland, as well as UK, French and German banks who are anxious to avoid or hedge exposure to the govies of PIGS. Another source of buying is Chinese banks which are expected to have to accumulate more Tier 1 assets to satisfy their regulators. The Japanese institutions will also continue to buy in order to seek yield that is unavailable in JGBs.
Anon,
no doubt, everything done with tech or fundamental analysis has bias involved with it, there is no "type" that avoids this.... but techs always have an advantage because the market is our indicator rather than having to predict them, fundamentalists are two steps removed from the their forecast having to predict their indicators first (if earnings go up then stocks will do X, if GDP drops stocks will do X, etc.) , we are only one step from the forecast and therefore a step ahead every time.
main reason I said that channel is biased is because one could draw their channel from the 29 top to the 2000 top instead, doesn't look nearly as bad then, but also only has two touches, so it's not as strong of a line.
also, those channel lines go back to 1932 and further if I extended it right and had data for the 1800's, I gave a more zoomed out version up above, and I should mention, it's a log scale chart.
@LB
Hamptons home sales down "due to snow".
I tried to tell Ritzy that if his friends spent all their money on snow [blow] & hookers, they'd never be able to afford a house, but nobody takes my advice...
Heard an interesting conspiracy about that Goldman downgrade of oil from a few weeks back.
Goldman was left out of the Glencore IPO. So, out of spite, they downgraded oil and metals and everything else in front of the IPO.
Who knows...
So far, that call is in their face.
@ben
I should mention, it's a log scale chart.
Better ask Amen & Andy if "log" scale charts are ok... Maybe only "BLOG" scale will be acceptable...
:-)
thanks, Lefty.
off to get my hat handed to me in tennis.
@Andy (1:27)
My impression on that is that whatever Goldman says, they're mostly trying to get the lemmings to stampede in a certain direction so they can make a quick profit off wrong way bets...
Oh Bruce
Happy Birthday!
CV
CV,
I'm still trying to find the Brazillion dollar option on my charting tools.
You ever chart gold in that?
ror.
Many Happy Returns, Bruce...!
@ben 22
I'm still trying to find the Brazillion dollar option on my charting tools.
You ever chart gold in that?
Only in "log" scale :-)
Lunch...
You can't EAT it!
@ben
I think that foto that AmenRa put up there in the thread post this morning was a BRAZILLION dollars...
Uh oh!
Time to start rolling the tanks into the square...
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/china-inflation-and-wage-protests-spread-turn-violent
Malaysian boot camp for "effeminate" schoolboys draws outrage
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20110421/lf_nm_life/us_malaysia_bootcamp
I guess everyone can't grow up to be a "Singapore Girl"...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WTPfYK2s2ao
re chinese truckers' protests..
i have no idea how the chinese trucking industry is structured, but if these guys own their own trucks or pay for the fuel, it might make sense; otherwise....?
"'I want the government to stand up to solve our problems because we cannot take this anymore. We are unable to bear the cost of operating now,' said a driver surnamed Chen, 33, a native of Henan province who has been driving for eight years."
"Police arrested at least six people and beat up some protesters with batons, said Chen and another driver also surnamed Chen, 35. They declined to give their full names or the name of their company for fear of reprisals
Wasn't the prime minister of Malaysia the one that Mubarek wanted to kill and that's why all those people got so mad in Egypt?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wleJmrlbsMc
Or.....is that Mugatu I was thinking about.....wrong causation or correlation here?
bad joke?
I've got an itch to watch Zoolander.....sorry, I'm into really really stupid movies
Kung Pow anyone?
Dude Where's My Car?
five stars all around.....
We talking guilty pleasures now?
Tremors can still send me to emergency with an abdominal tear.
Michael Gross and Reba McIntire busting loose with the entire arsenal...not to mention the entire cast matching wits with a worm. Sign 'o the times.
Tremors, nice.....my little sisters and I used to watch that all the time.
I like when Eg Shan (From Big Trouble In Little China) calls the tremors
grab-oids
You're aging me Ben...I was 37 when the effing thing came out;-)
Or I just did it to myself.
dude, you can't age, you were in a band.
Just checking in...
Silver close near HOD $46.30...
Andy - you're not going to renig on our standing bet of $50 vs. $21 are you?
Wasn't it for Super Bowl tickets or something?
Please tell me it wasn't for Justin Beaver front row seats... Naw - couldn't be... I'd have taken the $21 in that case... :-)
True dat...although
I've managed to keep my hair, good looks, and ageless charm...nevertheless...and not to steal Bruce's thunder...I'm facing another one tomorrow.
I'm getting soused now...and planning to sleep through until Saturday.
I'm getting soused now...and planning to sleep through until Saturday
Mel... meet Bertie...
Bertie... meet Mel...
Bertie & Mel... Meet Jack!
CV... meet Stella!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V1js5LOYDag
(but not until I finish with 'Sherwin')
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MhGkna0Rhpw
Watch out people! "OH...BOMB...US" is calling on "Action Jackson" to kick the ass of those nasty crude speck-u-laters...
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/obama-holder-declare-war-oil-traders-speculators
@CV
I shoulda known you'd glom on to that faster than thor chasing a free pair of nylons...not that there's anything wrong with that.
This comment was hilarious...
Obama's 2-pronged approach, printing money and bombing oil-producing states, will surely reduce our dependence on foreign oil!
Coal Fired Volts bitchez!
Then Obama can go after those evil electric companies...
@CV, he said he "drove an electric vehicle, the volt... drove maybe 5 feet, it was nice" LMAO
DOW chart I like, when talking about bubbles that is...
DOW 1900-2000
@qqqqtrader
Yeah... Well I just posted that to let all you traders out there know THE NEW RULES on what you can and cannot do...
No "oil longs"... No 'shorting' banks or US Treasuries...
Got that?
You voted for Hope & Change... Whoomp! There it is!
Peggy Jospeh was right...
Obama WILL pay for her gas & mortgage...
When 'price controls' (the next step) are announced, THERE WILL BE NO GAS...
See? Obama is cutting the deficit already!
@CV, I hear ya. You might not remember but a couple years ago we were chatting about buying ZSL, I did too. We should have been cashing in aluminum cans for money to buy silver at teh then price below $12... LOL
"YOU CANNOT BE SERIOUS"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mV1LzXf1TKQ
God. What a godawful trading week.
Thank God it's over... and thank God for my divvys and telecoms.
and I don't even believe in God.
and that's why you had such a bad week, you runt...
@qqqqtrader (4:05)
Well at this point, I'm just waiting for the U.S. NICKLE (still 75% copper - since 1946), to be reconfigured...
Instead of Jefferson... It'll be Obama... And the metal content will be some kind of tin alloy or something...
I have sucked all through April. How about a break, God?
You don't deserve one, b/c you didn't buy SILVER, you prick.
@LB
and I don't even believe in God...
That's why it's the official Charlton Heston Movie Marathon going on all week long...
Just for blokes like you...
If I break even this month it will be a miracle. Got any left, God?
If I did I wouldn't waste them on fixed income analysts like you.
Now if I really wanted to do a miracle I would save Greek govies.
LOL. ha ha ha ha ha ha ha
Jeez. Even God sounds like Dr Evil.
It must be the Chairsatan's doing, the Ben Bernankzebub.
Well, screw you, God, I am off, safe in the knowledge that I can't get squeezed tomorrow.
For once...
You don't deserve one, b/c you didn't buy SILVER, you prick...
Just keep telling yourself that "You can't EAT it"...
Well - actually you CAN... But you'd turn blue... And you being a Liverpool guy, that wouldn't work out so well...
Be careful.
I've got some crosses handy and could do a quick crucifixion...
See you on Monday.
Cheers, God. Have a good one.
This is a quality blog. Even deities post here.
and you can sod off, as well, Squid boy.
@Lord Blankfein
You work for HIM... & don't forget that...
@LB
How can you NOT believe in God???
Our boy Lord Blankfein has already admitted that he 'works' for the guy...
Or was that just another Goldman misdirection?
You guys are nuts I tell you. LMAO
@AndyT
Hey Andy... Does this "count" as $50...
Can we call it square?
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/monex-silver-american-eagles-pass-50ounce
Well, I didn't do so bad....got a strawberry on my knee the size of a large plum...that was fun.
Interesting market. Lefty, I still think you are probably right, but I'm losing a bit of confindence when a debt warning doesn't even really affect the 10 year. Maybe this won't be temporary inflation followed by a collapse. Maybe the inflationistas do win in the end, and CV buys all of New England.
Big shindig. Later.
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