A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection.
Creditcane™: I haven't used up all of my vacation days yet.
SPXBullish short day (trying to form a bullish harami?). Midpoint below EMA(10). Still below SMA(21) & SMA(55). Tested and held the 23.6% retrace (1303.70). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1328.17). QE2infinity. "JBTFD. Don't question it. Just do it. Trust me."
DXYBearish harami day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and failed 14.6% retrace (75.59). Below all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 74.68).
VIXBearish long day (filled gap). Midpoint below EMA(10). Still below all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 17.25). Still in the "no fear" zone.
GOLDDoji day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Made a new 0.0% retrace. Still above all SMA's. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1474.10). Holding above upper trend line. Must have the precious.
EURUSDBullish piercing day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still below 1.4374 (the 76.4% retrace). Back above SMA(21). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1.4471).
JNKBullish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Back above SMA(21) & SMA(55). Back above its 61.8% retrace (40.32). Still below lower trend line. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 40.21).
10YR YIELDBearish long day (gravestone doji destroyed by tomb raiders). No test of 0.0% retrace at 37.44. Back below all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed 38.2% retrace (33.71). Held the upper trend line. New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 34.66).
DJ TRANS AVGBullish harami day. Still below SMA(21). Midpoint below EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 5370.47).
CRBSpinning top day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Back above SMA(21). Still above the 14.6% retrace (357.80). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 368.70).
WTIDoji day (possible bullish harami star). Still above all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). No test of 0.0% retrace. No dally 3LB changes (reversal is 112.79). Still below weekly 3LB mid (108.61).
SILVERBullish short day. Still above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Made a new 0.0% retrace. Holding upper trend line. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 41.66).
18 comments:
So, AR, it will take a close below 41.66 on Silver to confirm a Daily reversal?
Anon
No. You will get a daily reversal with a close below 41.66. The confirmation is a lower close after the reversal.
AmenRa. Can you please send me an email at AndysTechnicals@gmail.com? I want to get in touch with you.
@Andy T
In fact...for others here, I can HIGHLY RECOMMEND Proxify.COM in case you want to be invisible to the powers that be. I know that sounds a little paranoid...
Not for me... I decided a long time ago that I'm going out "guns a-blazing"...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K0UzG-Gc7II
You knew there was going to be a loophole: Bernanke May Reinvest Maturing Debt to Avoid ‘Cold Turkey’ End to Stimulus
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke may keep reinvesting maturing debt into Treasuries to maintain record stimulus even after making good on a pledge to complete $600 billion in bond purchases by the end of June.
The Fed chief’s top two lieutenants said this month the economy and inflation are too weak to warrant the start of a monetary-policy reversal. Investors and economists including David Kelly at JPMorgan Funds see that as a signal the Fed will keep its balance sheet at current levels by replacing about $17 billion a month in maturing mortgage debt with Treasuries.
Ending the reinvestment policy and the $600 billion program at the same time would be like quitting stimulus “cold turkey,” said Kelly, who is based in New York and helps oversee $400 billion as chief market strategist at JPMorgan. “It does make sense to reinvest for a while,” he said. “Then they could watch how bond yields react to that.”
Yields on 10-year Treasuries declined to 2.49 percent from 2.76 percent in the two weeks following the Fed’s Aug. 10 decision to begin reinvesting payments on assets purchased during the first round of bond buying from December 2008 until March 2010. An end to the reinvestment policy should be seen by investors as the first step in a tightening of credit by the Fed, said Neal Soss, chief economist at Credit Suisse Group AG.
@Amen (7:49)
There has been a debate going on precisely that subject for quite a while (couple of months) now...
The camps are basically divided on "how long" that might be able to last...
Some are in the "perpetual motion" camp... Others say it won't work at all...
CV calls it "QE vapor"... My 2 cents??? (after hearing the subject debated numerous times and looking at many charts)...
It "kinda works" for a short while (I'm using 2-3 months as a timeframe - and that is why - FOR MONTHS NOW, CV has been talking about the QE2-QE3 crossover)...
So that's why I have a 'loose' timeframe for a correction in equities and commodities as SOMEWHERE between now and September (as I've said many times)...
They would "like" for the effect of QE2 to extend thru June (but Mr. Market is getting jittery about it)... So they throw this up to see if it sticks... It may... It may not... Doesn't really matter because they're just buying more time...
QE3 has to happen on a SCHEDULE that is convenient with the 2012 election cycle... I'm not sure exactly what that is, but NEXT JUNE seems handy... By then, the primaries will all be over and we'll know which of two puppets gets to shine Jamie Dimons boots for the next 4 years...
So basically... The QE vapor needs to act as a baton which links the expiration of QE2 with the official announcement of QE3 (which, of course, will have a DROP DEAD date at some late critical point in the 2012 election run-up)...
If nobody is interested in THAT...
I could post the 2011 NFL schedule (which came out an hour ago)...
Even though we're on DAY 40 of a "lockout" and the NFLPA has been legally dissolved...
Oh... & BTW...
I think the 'effect' of the QE Vapor that I described (if in fact it is at all a reality)... Will end up having more to do with the DEPTH of any correction, rather than have ramifications towards timeframes...
If that sounded incoherent or you're not paying attention... It's TRANSLATED as saying...
"Throw away all your DEEP MARKET CRASH scenarios, it ain't going to happen... this time"
QE2 was all a 'test' to see how much INFLATION that peeps could take... As it turns out, they bitch and gripe, but there's no blood in the streets (at least not HERE)...
They'll take silver up to $100 and gasoline up to $5 a gallon in QE3... So you'd better 'stock up' during any downturn...
Might be your last best chance...
Pretty decent overview of option pricing using delta, gamma and theta: http://www.zerohedge.com/article/options-risk-manipulation-and-may-silver-40-calls-fmx-connect-special-parts-1-and-2
@CV,
Your 8:08.
Thank You for that and the blog!
Love the "vapor" analogy...makes perfect sense.
Jennifer
We all knew that the Fed couldn't quit cold turkey.
For whatever readers we have out there, this site will be going offline for a few minutes around 11PM EST to undergo a few modifications.
$1500 gold is itching for a retest. Which WILL happen tomorrow (unless they sneak it in during AH). AUDJPY & EURJPY pretty solid in the AH (up more than 1% each).
Jim Rogers made an interesting point earlier. If silver goes parabolic without the dollar crashing then "Houston we have a problem". See Jim Rogers Interview
quote:
"JR: No, not yet. But I’m worried about silver. If silver continues to go up like it has been over the past 2 or 3 weeks, yes, then it would get to triple digits this year. And then we’ll have to worry. It’s not parabolic yet. I hope something stops it going up in the foreseeable future and we have a correction. There’s never one in history that hasn’t popped.
Now, maybe the US dollar is going to become confetti in 2011, and if that’s the case and silver goes to $150, then obviously I wouldn’t sell my silver. It would be the US dollar which is collapsing. But if silver goes up the way you’re talking about without currency collapse, I would be very worried."
I like the new look, oh, and '18' is also qqqqtrader. Thought I'd let this be known since everyone seems to be spilling their real thoughts. I'm very glad this blog didn't go to the trash heap.
Major 18 SPX target is still 1375 in 2011.
Hussman article from last week: http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc110411.htm
Spells out how the Fed will have to reduce their balance sheet significantly if they were to raise interest rates at all.
qqqqtrader:
I know you've been swinging by for a long time, since my original blog incarnation. We appreciate the inputs.
1375 is "possible" ...the way the waves have acted more "corrective" from the highs also allows for that kind of move.
It will be a market that begrudgingly moves to that point.
This Blog's primary focus is on trading based upon technical analysis. It is run by "AmenRa" and "AndyT," quasi-anonymous traders who employ technical analysis to assess market conditions and trading opportunities. AmenRa utilizes 3LB techniques, Moving Averages and Fibonacci sequences. AndyT's analysis relies primarily on "Wave Theory" and Fibonacci sequences. The Comments Section is uncensored and open to the public. Please try and adhere to the "Blogger Policy."
nice!
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