A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection.
Creditcane™: I'm being held for ransom by the bulls.
SPXBullish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. Above the 14.6% retrace (1319.09). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1305.14). QE2infinity. "JBTFD. Don't question it. Just do it. Trust me."
DXYBearish short day (tail too short for hammer). Midpoint below EMA(10). Made a new 0.% retrace (73.74). Below all SMA's. New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 75.50).
VIXBearish harami day (but we're in a downtrend not an uptrend…hmmm). Midpoint below EMA(10). Still below all SMA's. New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 16.27). Deep in the "no fear" zone.
GOLDSpinning top day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Made a new 0.0% retrace. Still above all SMA's. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1492.90). Holding above upper trend line. Must have the precious.
EURUSDSpinning top day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above 1.4374 (the 76.4% retrace). Still above all SMA's. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1.4215).
JNKBullish short day (tail too short for hanging man). Midpoint above EMA(10). Back above all SMA's. Back above its 85.4% retrace (40.60). Still below lower trend line. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 40.46).
10YR YIELDBullish short day (no confirmation closed unchanged). No test of 0.0% retrace at 37.44. Still below all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and held 38.2% retrace (33.71). Held the upper trend line. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 34.66).
DJ TRANS AVGBullish short day. Back above SMA(21). Midpoint above EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 5370.47).
CRBHanging man day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above SMA(21). Still above the 14.6% retrace (357.80). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 368.70).
WTIBullish short day. Still above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). No test of 0.0% retrace. No dally 3LB changes (reversal is 113.38). Still above weekly 3LB mid (108.61).
SILVERBullish long day. Still above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Made a new 0.0% retrace. Holding upper trend line. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 42.95). Registered or eligible is the question.
40 comments:
Just heard that Amazon's cloud service has been down most of the day. What a way to start a holiday weekend for businesses scrambling to get their work done.
Ok. Starting this thread with a provocative idea, and one of the reasons I'm reasonably bullish America over the next few decades (please also see some of my multi-decade charts).
By 2050, our oil demand will only be 10% of what it is today. Essentially, the price of oil won't matter much and Peak Oil won't matter either.
I've had that thought for awhile now, but we had a discussion today with several trader types (men in their 30s and 40s with plenty of discretionary income)....
100% of the these guys say their next car is going to be Electric Car of some kind. A few of them have reserves on the Tesla S and a few will likely try out the Volt.
There's obviously a few draw backs to these vehicles, namely battery life and cost, but at $2.75/gallon, the Volt costs ~25% the cost of gasoline on per/mile basis. At $4.00/gallon, it almost becomes a "no brainer" at 20% of the cost of gasoline. Roughly, I'd be saving $2500/year in Gasoline.
It just seems like over the next few years, as the Japanese and everyone catch up with the "cool designs" etc....and the costs come down, Electric vehicles will become an "equivalent" option for most new car buyers.
Please Note: I don't know much about this subject at all. I'm sure there's environment downside with these batteries and that there are probably other costs on these things.
However, they sure are making some good looking cars that move really fast and cost 20-25% as much to drive. Seems like just a matter of time.
Saudis would have to engineer another sustained drop in oil prices to stop this particular "trend."
I spy a high of 46.70 for silver.
Andy T
Until the US electrical grid is improved too many electric cars may cause problems.
That brings me back to hoping the US finally develops thorium nuclear plants.
AT,
I've got some discretionary income, but I'm still holding out for a JetPak.
final puzzle on Wheel of Fortune
Pure Gold
That's a sign for sure, lol.
She got it, and won a bunch of......dollars.
Best name of band ever:
We Were Promised Jetpacks
@AT
a few facts...
there were an estimated 254.4 million registered passenger vehicles in the United States according to a 2007 DOT...
The global market leader is the United States with 1.89 million hybrids registered by December 2010...
In 2009 the US median household income in the was $49,777
3rd generation Toyota Prius base cost is $23,050, the Prius Five base price is $28,320.
Chevy Volt cost about $40K with up to $7500 credit.
I'd have to think about this for a while but maybe in 40 years cars will get cheaper and wages for most will rise but I haven't really seen this for the last 40 years.
ben,
I was this close to putting down the $5K reserve for this car:
Tesla Sedan
qqqq:
That's an interesting perspective. Though, I just read this piece of information:
"A new car is second only to a home as the most expensive purchase many consumers make. According to the National Automobile Dealers Association, the average price of a new car sold in the United States is $28,400."
This was from the first Google site that popped up when I asked about the average price of a new car (The FTC). Not sure if it's accurate or not.
So, maybe the electric cars aren't "that" far away being in the 'wheelhouse' of a new car buyer, especially when you discount the value of Gasoline savings.
Just think about how much "change" we've seen in technology in the last 40 years?
Color me optimistic.
"Until the US electrical grid is improved too many electric cars may cause problems."
Fair point. But what happens when homes start getting outfitted with Solar Panels as the price point/technology improves there? You might not need much of an electrical grid in the next few decades?
AT, the "Optimist"
@ben
Pure Gold
That's a sign for sure, lol.
She got it, and won a bunch of......dollars
RMFAO!
---
@Andy T
Don't get CV started on the subject of electric cars!
Not the LEAST of which is the fact that in trying to do ANALOG thought processes that pan 40 years into the future...
Well... Put it this way... 50 years age we were watching the Jetsons on TV and thought that was what the future was going to look like...
They sent guys to the moon on a 286 computer, and they would have 'difficulty' today doing a manned moon effort with all the supposed technology that we have...
40 years ago there was a 'Shah' in Iran, and we were FUNDING the Mujahideen & our good friend Osama Bin Laden...
Ask yourself WHY? to those questions before to start peering 40 years into the future and picture yourself in a Chevy Volt... Then REMEMBER we have an empty suit in the Oval Office as we speak, and the odds are that he'll be there wasting another 5 years...
We'll be lucky to even have fancier teleprompters by then...
Just a thought but if the Govt starts to lose revenue from oil, then they'll get it from somewhere else... maybe higher electricity use taxes. My point is even though in maybe 40 years from now electric cars may be the norm, it'll cost alot to recharge it, or the Govt/states will charge miles driven or some crazy crap like that.
I'm an optimist also but I know how the govt. likes to grab the average citizens hard earned bucks.
cv: I would think that the survivalist in you would be rooting for following outcome some time down the road:
Solar Panels on the property....a farm that is completely "off the grid" non-metaphorically speaking...with a car/truck that plugs into your Panels.
I mean..."C'mon Man!" Wouldn't that be "sort of" cool?
Predictions are tough... Especially ones about the future...
"The future ain't what it used to be"
"I'm an optimist also but I know how the govt. likes to grab the average citizens hard earned bucks."
qqqq: Blasphemous! Just go read some of the more left leaning sites/blogs out there. Government is the solution man! They'll be able to work our problems out for us and help us all. All we need to do is just raise taxes "a little bit".....
@Andy T
What I think is cool, and REALITY are two different things...
I thought MINORITY REPORT was "cool" (but I'm not signing on to the "pre-crime" unit)...
Here... I've done my best to "map out" the pathway to all electric cars in 2050... All on a chalkboard just for you...
http://www.mun.ca/biology/scarr/Sid_Harris_-_then_a_miracle_occurs_wrt_clotting.jpg
@Andy
And to be exact... The "survivalist" in me stems NOT from those ideas, but INSTEAD the notion that NATURE trumps HUBRIS & INNOVATION all the time...
@qqqqtrader
My point is even though in maybe 40 years from now electric cars may be the norm, it'll cost alot to recharge it, or the Govt/states will charge miles driven or some crazy crap like that.
EXACTLY!
In Bolivia the government charges you for water... THAT YOU COLLECT IN BARRELS ON YOUR ROOF FROM RAIN!
@Andy T
The Romans, Egyptians, Mayans, or any other grand civilization didn't collapse because they ran out of innovative ideas...
Just keep that thought in mind
I know I probably sound like a "smart ass" here... Understand that I'm not trying to LECTURE anyone on the subject, just give a more muted POV...
I chalk it up, in the end to UNSUSTAINABILITY...
The plain fact of the matter is that utilizing and unleashing captured carbon for energy (more than BASIC heating and small personal usage), and INSTEAD, using it for comfort, convenience, 'coolness', tranportation, and cheap goods (in a world that needs to continue to exploit NEW cultures (and make them slaves) so the rest can live like 'westerners', is NOT a vision of the future that will have any long term sustainability...
AT,
That car looks pretty sweet.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/obama_administration_officials_tried_to_keep_sandp_rating_at_stable/2011/04/19/AFfAeO8D_story.html
"The Obama administration privately urged Standard & Poor’s in recent weeks not to lower its outlook on the United States — a suggestion the ratings agency ignored Monday, two people familiar with the matter said.
Treasury Department officials had been discussing with S&P whether the ratings agency should change its outlook on the United States to “negative” from “stable,” an indication that the country could lose its crucial AAA rating in coming years over its soaring debt levels."
..I don't have a lot of empathy with either party as a fiscal conservative, which I certainly am. But this type of interference is in the best Huey Long tradition of populist governing...whatever it takes to keep the people happy with me.
..It doesn't matter who is in the WH. Until we get a balanced budget amendment.
Silver chart looking a little bubblelicous?
OK Folks. It's a long weekend here at AT's house and I'm being dragged to Camp Jellystone for the next two days. I plan on beating up Boo Boo Bear as he just sort of annoys me.
I will have a full S&P500 report for this Sunday night.
Peace out.
qqqq: Yeah, that Silver chart went parabolic on the break of $20..that was the "line in the sand." As a general rule, markets that go parabolic will return to the point at which they started the move. So, Silver will return to the low 20s at "some point."
@AT, had some free time this morning... made this chart on hybrid vehicles... all data from Wikipedia
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-latin-america-cars-20110422,0,2500760.story?track=rss&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+latimes%2Fbusiness+%28L.A.+Times+-+Business%29
Car sales in Latin America skyrocket
"In Brazil, the region's top market, more than 3.5 million cars and light trucks were sold last year — up 86% compared with 2006. Its economy is growing fast and wages are rising."
@Andy
You needed'nt worry about having to get an electric car...
Obama is going to fix everything...
Obama pumps plan to develop renewable energy
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Obama-pumps-plan-to-develop-apf-1883916447.html?x=0
EXCERPTS:
"President Barack Obama says one answer to high gasoline prices is to spend money developing renewable energy sources."
See? Spend more money, and we'll have it fixed even faster than Gitmo got closed, or that we were out of Iraq...
"That's the key to helping families at the pump and reducing our dependence on foreign oil" in the long term, he said Saturday in his weekly radio and Internet address."
"Reduce our dependency on foreign oil"... Now why didn't I think of that? (When Carter started the DOE with exactly that concept in 1977, the problem must have been that we haven't spent enough money...
"Obama raises the issue of rising fuel prices during almost every public appearance and says that he understands the strain higher fuel costs are putting on some family budgets.
Strain on everyone's family budget except for peggy Joseph (who's getting it paid for as I hear)...
Happy Easter Everyone!
Hope you all have a #WINNING day!
Charlie Sheen gets own mobile app
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/04/22/us-charliesheen-mobileapp-idUSTRE73L3BX20110422
---
I swear this is true... The first thing CV saw this morning when I looked out the window was a bunny running across the yard...
Alas, no "peeps" in a basket anywhere to be found...
@Jennifer
I hope your kiddies have fun... Be careful though if you observe them trying to bite the heads off of chocolate bunnies... That could be a prime indicator that they're going to turn out like CV...
"Turn OFF the "Masheen"!
"You first"!
Paper Money... (you can't EAT it)...
Or - Maybe you actually can! Termites actually consider it a delicacy...
Termites eat millions of Indian rupees in bank
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/as_india_termites
@CV,
Happy Easter to you too and all the readers!
Your(7:23).
That 'all you can eat buffet' was stored in a steel chest. Police have registered a case against the bank manager. I bet they are smelling a rat!
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/china/2011-04/23/c_13842843.htm
China should cap forex reserves at 1.3 trillion U.S. dollars: China banker
BEIJING, April 23 (Xinhua) -- China should reduce its excessive foreign exchange reserves and further diversify its holdings, Tang Shuangning, chairman of China Everbright Group, said on Saturday.
The amount of foreign exchange reserves should be restricted to between 800 billion to 1.3 trillion U.S. dollars, Tang told a forum in Beijing, saying that the current reserve amount is too high.
China's foreign exchange reserves increased by 197.4 billion U.S. dollars in the first three months of this year to 3.04 trillion U.S. dollars by the end of March.
Tang's remarks echoed the stance of Zhou Xiaochuan, governor of China's central bank, who said on Monday that China's foreign exchange reserves "exceed our reasonable requirement" and that the government should upgrade and diversify its foreign exchange management using the excessive reserves.
Meanwhile, Xia Bin, a member of the monetary policy committee of the central bank, said on Tuesday that 1 trillion U.S. dollars would be sufficient. He added that China should invest its foreign exchange reserves more strategically, using them to acquire resources and technology needed for the real economy.
Tang also said that China should further diversify its foreign exchange holdings. He suggested five channels for using the reserves, including replenishing state-owned capital in key sectors and enterprises, purchasing strategic resources, expanding overseas investment, issuing foreign bonds and improving national welfare in areas like education and health.
However, these strategies can only treat the symptoms but not the root cause, he said, noting that the key is to reform the mechanism of how the reserves are generated and managed.
>> In Bolivia the government charges you for water... THAT YOU COLLECT IN BARRELS ON YOUR ROOF FROM RAIN!
Is that true?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2000_Cochabamba_protests
Looks like foreigners were colonizing Bolivia.
If bankrupt American munis sell off our local water infrastructure to China, we'll be looking at similar issues.
Back from Camp Jellystone. That place was friggin' PACKED. Did not expect that...thot all the Texans would be in Church for Easter. Guess we weren't the only heathens.
New Post Up for anyone that might Care.
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