USDJPY (weekly info)-no change (above mid)
trend=no
direction=up (2 bars)
high= 84.80
rev= 80.93; mid= 82.87
Last week formed a bearish engulfing and this week has started confirming it. It also closed below its 23.6% retrace since making the low that caused the intervention. Is the time for another intervention coming soon? it is also below its weekly 3LB mid indicating sentiment is turning bearish.
Silver (weekly info)new high 42.58
trend=up
high= 42.58
rev= 37.05; mid= 39.97
Say what you want about the effect of QE2 but as you can see silver has been pushing higher ever since the Jackson hole speech. The circle is around 8/27/10 or the week of the speech. Any questions? Q.E.D.
3mth vs Overnight LiborThe spread is still increasing. Overnight plunging to new lows...GTFOOH.
43 comments:
Good morning all.
AT -- thanks for the dollar response.
AR -- as always, thanks for the excellent charts.
Jennifer
The DXY may not have taken out the low from 2009 but on a weekly basis we did close lower than all of 2009 last week. The low weekly close was 75.00 in 2009. Last week we closed at 74.83.
Alfred E. Neuman.
Classic.
Typical bounce back on WTI from the overnight selling...
Who the hell sells WTI hard at 3AM?
@AmenRa:
I noticed you stopped posting the overnight-3month money market spread. Did it collapse? I noticed that the ted spread started to come back in last week.
Matthew
I had been looking at it but didn't post the chart. So it's up now. Overnight libor still plunging. Yeah right. Does anyone actually believe the banks trust each other that much to lower overnight lending rates?
3 month-overnight spread is now 141.
CSCO weekly chart had a bullish engulfing immediately nullified by a bearish engulfing candle. It gapped lower this week.
GM had the big push in the first week of the year. It's been all downhill ever since.
From thread above...
"Say what you want about the effect of QE2 but as you can see silver has been pushing higher ever since the Jackson hole speech."
Gnomes... The only explanation...
Do you have a chart on how many times the WAVE COUNT has been re-numbered... Or how many "triangles" have come and gone since then?
I'm just back in from teaching my $15 dollar an hour class (and about to get to painting more rooms in my non-existent house)... I'm hoping I can score as a "house painter" (and upgrade my standards to a $16 an hour painting "technician" - that will be sweet!)...
Then maybe I'll better to be able to afford to pay the taxes on my non-existent farm...
I sure wish that ANON comment (from yesterday) had come a few days earlier... See, because maybe then when the tax bill arrives, I could just send it back to them with a note that says...
NO FARM!
Teaching classes is 'beer money' (so basically the government gets 2 beers out of each six pack)...
CV
The breakout happened at the apex of a rising wedge on the monthly chart.
I'm not sure that the decline in the overnight rate reflects any kind of complacency vis-a-vis credit in the banking sector. The TED spread was increasing during a large portion of the decline, indicating increasing tension in money markets. I wonder if this is more of a distortion in the term structure rather than credit. I don't know enough about short term rates to conjecture.
Matthew
Not complacency per se but under reporting of what they're actually paying.
Gold hit 1500. Tag you're it.
Indeed...another triangle on the Silver...
It targets 44.42 range. Short term longs might use 43.40 for stops on new length.
Lot of psychology around that 1500 level on Gold. Will be interesting to see how it reacts here.
That APPLE looks like it was a bear trap yday, like we had talked about.
I wouldn't be short or long Apple now....sidelines
Also, Gartman was on CNBC a few days ago talking about how much he hated Apple...
That should have made bears nervous.
Silver unbelievable. Very powerful...wait, did I already say that?
I see my name in about a dozen posts last night so I figured I'll make one more post here to clear a few things up. I'm simply speaking for myself here so don't assume my comments represent anything from Karen or I-man or anybody else.
First, I want to state up front I've got nothing but good things to say about Andy and AmenRa since it seems to be implied last night that I do not care about them. I think both of these guys are great and I think it should be clear to everyone here that I really admire AndyT a great deal and I think that his wave work is some of the best I've ever seen. There is little doubt in my mind that I've spent more time reviewing his charts than everyone here combined and I have learned a lot from him in what is now going on almost four years of reading his comments on looking at his charts. I also just like him as a person, and we seem to have many things in common, I'd invite the guy into my home if he was ever in DE. Ra helped me understand 3lb and I also think he’s a real good guy but I talk with AT more than Ra. I've kept in pretty close contact with Andy since I stopped posting here, probably send him more e-mails and questions than he cares to answer from one person in fact. My leaving has nothing to do with any lack of respect for them and I even told Andy I wasn’t planning on posting here anymore. If someone thinks I’m being disrespectful toward them it couldn’t be further from the truth.
I was under the impression several weeks ago that this blog was going to be terminated which is what prompted my leaving in the first place. I said right on the thread "apparently the blog is being shut down, if you have my e-mail feel free to keep in touch" This was the second time I thought the blog was going to be shut down within 2-3 months. The recent timeline as I recall was first CV gave up authorship rights here not too long ago for various reasons which I personally thought might be the end of the blog seeing as how Andy's charts are on Scribd and Ra still has his blog and CV did all the daily posts. Other people expressed the same concern at the time. The blog stayed up though and I stuck around, a few weeks later CV is back posting within the comments and an Anon comes along to tell CV that his posts are too long and then as a result CV threatened the data dump which I read in what seemed to be clear terms that he was shutting the site down and I figured that he meant it. After that I took off but I kept/keep reading this blog as long as it stayed up so I saw that CV later revealed that he was never actually going to do the data dump he threatened to perform, it was just some grand experiment to see what all of us would do. As I recall, he said later that he had hoped some of us would pick up and do something on our own (or at minimum change the color scheme here, if I remember his comments correctly)....well somebody did just that and now this seems to be a problem as well. CV, so you understand, it was not me, or Karen, or I-man that set up another blog, it doesn't matter who it was or if there is another blog, and your assumptions about our motivations for being wherever we are, they are generally wrong. Really though, I have no obligation to explain to you my actions or rationale for what I’m doing. It's funny that you want to paint yourself as some person that is open to all viewpoints or that you like to “dust it up” because from where I’m sitting it seems that as soon as some anon comes along with some words for you that you don't appreciate you wanted to shut the whole site down....or you didn't want to shut it down, I’m still not sure. You talked last night about respect. Is it respectful to threaten to shut a gathering place down for people that have been talking to each other for over 3 years just because some anonymous poster says something to you that you don’t like? Is it respectful for you to conduct experiments on people just to get a reaction from them?
I’d think it's pretty clear that a few of us are primarily focused on trading markets and will continue to be focused there because in several cases it is what we do for a living. At the end of the day, where I spend my time is based on whether or not I think I'm getting any value out of it and if I’m enjoying myself. The original purpose in coming here after Andy’s blog was closed, for me, was not about looking for various viewpoints as much as it was about talking tape to improve my trading skills and reading various peoples viewpoints on charts and technical analysis. Anyone can plainly see that early on, this blog was all about charts/markets/trading, just go back and look at the first several posts. Over the last several months I’ve observed a general departure from this within the comments which is primarily prompted by CV. While AndyT and Ra are of course market focused with their charts, the general discussion here was not. Despite the fact that this was a shared blog in terms of posting, I’ve always looked at it as CV’s blog, so who am I to say what should be discussed. I don't think it's my place to say what should and shouldn't be discussed here. I want to talk with people about trading, not have three day debates on whether or not the dollar is dead or how many years it would take me to gather $50k in nickels, so that’s what I’m doing now, talking trades with people that want to do the same thing as me. There is no hidden agenda on my end, just a desire to be where I think my time is best spent.
and that's all
peace out.....
re-post from previous thread..
from tbp and on thru various blog incarnations & permutations, have encountered a lot of folks who made (sometimes) interesting and/or valuable and/or entertaining contributions, among these folks all the blog handles mentioned above and others (bertie fr'instance).
daily time constraints make it difficult to near impossible now to frequent each of the blogs where these folks have dispersed, much less follow each comment section throughout every day.
seems some folks are like oil & water (don't mix well), others like elemental sodium and water (react violently).
just the nature of blogworld, i guess:
"things fall apart; the centre cannot hold"
i'm just a rodney king kinda of guy, but have no time or respect for those who post as "anonymous". c'mon man!
@ben22
Thanks for taking the time to make that thoughtful post...
For my part, mostly what I want to say is that I feel it is important that you took the time & effort to do so...
What I've found is that it's very difficult to UNDO something that's been done (such as this blog)...
Regardless of anyone's personal inclinations, I think it's 'respectful' to advise everyone who is curious about a sudden departure...
Ironically - even a 'lie' would suffice (like: "Hey peeps - I've been real busy, tax season and all")... It's an instinct that dates all the way back to being a teenage and your mother wanting a call after midnight if you still were going to be out just to know you're not lying dead in a gutter somewhere... (I'm sure everyone is familiar with that story)...
Anyway - your effort covered that base...
What you have to consider is that you, I-Man, & karen all disappeared at precisely the same time (which, I'm sure you can imagine - magnifies the "WTF" aspect)...
I would have left it at that... But it's NEVER that easy... You always have some troublemaker (I'm assuming it was "dss" - because she seems to have always had problems with CV's resume), coming in and STIRRING THE POT - like last night...
Although I don't like that... I'm COMPELLED to address an outright frontal assault like that...
It would be like another instructor walking into a class I was teaching, turning off my music, and saying, "Where are all the people"?
I've learned over the years that you DON'T teach for the people who are not there, you teach for the people that ARE THERE... And those people are very happy that you took the time and effort... They're not standing there 'wanting out' because there aren't "x" amount of people in the class...
2
I tried to express last week that, even though I wasn't trading, that there were still a lot of people around who were (most - in fact)... And that type of chatter was welcome...
I myself even like it because to read other peoples ideas helps me frame my own (whether I trade frequently or not)...
As for silver and nickles... The best I can say is that buying silver IS & WAS A TRADE... I had to make a decision and execute a transaction to do so... I didn't just collect scrap silver which litters the walkways...
Some people go by the philosophy to make VERY FEW trades... What's the point in betting all 20 horses coming out of the gate at Churchill Downs?
2nd... I've heard it's a good idea to "ride your winners"... That happened to be a "winner" which I have chosen to continue to ride...
Technically speaking, it's getting to the point now, that unless it goes back to zero, the worst of the worst of a price collapse will still leave me above my cost basis...
You yourself, lament the fact that you exited the Apple trade too early, so I'd be surprised to hear any criticisms FROM you for sticking with silver...
You're a very studious person, and put a lot in to your craft... Wouldn you not say that to at least 'listen' to somebody drone on and on about the same subject (like I seem to do with silver), you could learn something anecdotal)?...
It's one thing to read Chapter "X" on EWI (and somebody else telling you that emotions tend to run muckety muck) as certain waves are playing out...
It's another thing to have the chance to have some home grown experience IN REAL TIME... So in the future, you can write your own chapters...
Anyway - I don't want to get long and drawn out here... (which I've already failed at)...
But I know people around here (myself included) like hearing what you (and karen & I-Man) have to say...
If you decide to stay away, that's OK, and I (we) appreciate your having taken the time to express yourself... & I certainly appreciate all the contributions you've made (going back to TBP)...
Last thing: It's NOT CV's blog anymore (Andy T & Amen Ra have full capacity to anything they wish (including getting together between themselves - and slamming the door on CV [which is something I could not override])...
I DID decide to stick around though... Where else (except for a blog) can anyone SHED their "political corectness" garb?
Love all the posters and commenters.
Hate the Squid.
Peace to all.
Appreciate the comments above Ben. Thanks man.
CV and Andy - Enough with trying to pin all the anons on either Denise or I. We have both told you several times that neither of us are shy about posting what we have to say to you as ourselves.
I'm not going to get involved in this latest drama fest but please stop bringing up our names as an excuse for why shit here constantly keeps blowing up. We are not now, now have we ever been, interesting in coming over here and stirring up the pot.
Please try to keep our names out of your drama.
In case anyone is interested... On these direct points...
It's funny that you want to paint yourself as some person that is open to all viewpoints or that you like to “dust it up” because from where I’m sitting it seems that as soon as some anon comes along with some words for you that you don't appreciate you wanted to shut the whole site down....or you didn't want to shut it down, I’m still not sure. You talked last night about respect. Is it respectful to threaten to shut a gathering place down for people that have been talking to each other for over 3 years just because some anonymous poster says something to you that you don’t like? Is it respectful for you to conduct experiments on people just to get a reaction from them?
The answer is... ben DOES have a point how he frames that argument...
By my definition, it WOULD NOT have been respectful for me to shut the blog down under those auspices...
I came to that conclusion before the end of that week (where I had "pre-advertised" a shutdown point)...
I came to the conclusion that it was NOT the way to go... Blog stays open... Disaster averted... Fresh "new" disasters in arrival (always) :-)...
My last point on that... to anyone... Is... Try hosting a blog for yourself someday... NOT one where you just get a blogspot and put up a few charts (which many have tried and still do)...
But one that is lively with chatter...
In a way, it's like cat wrangling... So when you've spent your day wrangling cats, you don't appreciate it very much when some ANON comes at you at the end of the day and tells you you're doing it wrong...
FWIW - I post comments over at ZeroHedge from time to time... I'm not one of the 'famous' posters over there, but I probably get some comments posted on a thread or two at least a couple times per week...
Anyway - I can say that it's A LOT different (my attitude) when I post there rather than here...
There - I can say anything... MOSTLY it's a game to me, because I try to be as "on point" & "funny" as possible (yet avoid getting JUNKED)... It's a challenge...
HERE... I always know I'm going to have to OWN everything I say... I can be controversial... But I know that probably means I'm going to spend more hours banging on the keyboard than I'd anticipated...
You all should read Tyler Durden (at ZH), versus the other posters, if you want a sense of "taking things personally" as a blog host...
or how about BR???
Hell - the folks that started that other blog "outlawed it in their constitution" before they ever got started (so that tells you how sensitive THEY were to it)...
So to call me out and say that I'm 'overreacting' as a blog host (in the context of these other blog hosts)... I think I do pretty well...
and for what it's worth. There are a couple of us who still occasionally come by here to see what's up. Whether you all want to believe it or not, none of us has any hard feelings toward anyone here. It's simply as 72Bat said "oil and water".
Cheers.
Also, Ben, and most anyone else, anytime you're in Houston-ville....
I'm almost always available for drinks or dinner.
@Thor
All I know is this... It sure "sounded" (from my POV) that the pot stirring was coming from you guys'z direction...
If it wasn't... Then I apologize...
I'm not an interenet IP sleuth, so I don't have the time or even technical know-how, to chase any kind of that stuff down...
Since you yourself are handy with the IP sleuthing, I think if you looked, you'd see that CV has not even logged on to the URL for your blog, jeez, probably since January...
I've put that behind me...
So again, my apologies if the "pot stirring" wasn't from you... I'd concluded that it definitely wasn't from ben, karen, or I-Man themselves... None of them are those types...
ben 'doubly' confirmed that by posting today...
CV - no you haven't, and we thank both you AND Andy for leaving us in peace ;-)
I haven't left you in peace Thor. Any time you say something extraordinarily STUPID, I'll swing by to let you know...don't worry about that.
You just have said anything that ignorant in a while....
Ha ha.
I don't really see a drama here. Back to markets....
Enough of this BS.
I need to sell some more Junk Silver this afternoon....I'll see you folks later.
@Andy
Yeah... Back to markets...
Silver bitchez! - ror
come on ben... You gotta be ROTF with that comment... CV hasn't lost his 'comedic' touch!
@Andy
I need to sell some more Junk Silver this afternoon
OK... So we got the $1500 futures print on gold... But I'm still scratching my head here thinking that if these metals 'seem' to like round numbers so much...
Why not just wait for $50?
You probably don't have to answer that (because I know you're a TECHNICAL trader - not a bottom or top picker)...
Andy - fair enough. Both Denise and I do exactly the same thing to you ever time you mouth off over at TBP. Luckily most of the other "left leaning" people over there do pretty much the same thing.
And you really need to quit it with the lying, every time you do it you lose more credibility. I track our traffic diligently and you very seldom ever come over these days. Once or twice a week at most.
Nice try though buddy - keep up the good work, you've definitely chosen the right career.
and with that - I will leave you boys to your sand-box. Enjoy.
"Love all the posters and commenters.
Hate the Squid.
Peace to all."
Ditto.
PS: I guess I missed out on notice of people leaving. I thought everyone was on vacation :D
"And you really need to quit it with the lying, every time you do it you lose more credibility. I track our traffic diligently and you very seldom ever come over these days. Once or twice a week at most."
~~~~~~~~
Thor, not that you could possibly understand this, but it's possible to visit a blog, or any site for that matter, and not be visible to anyone. I've been using Proxify.com for several months now. It allows me to be completely anonymous anywhere on the 'tubes.
So, the only time anyone can track me on a site is when I want to be seen.
Call it an issue of "not trusting" all the folks who monitor Internet traffic.
So, once again, you're uninformed about something. I'm not a liar, but you're definitely a fool.
In fact...for others here, I can HIGHLY RECOMMEND Proxify.COM in case you want to be invisible to the powers that be. I know that sounds a little paranoid...
...but, go ahead and call me a "little" paranoid.
Oh look, the S&P500 left a nice little overnight gap and the market grinded right back to that gap.
Amazing how often that happens....
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