O' market. O' market. Why has thou forsaken me?
Creditcane™: I was kidnapped by the bulls.
SPXBullish long day (confirmed bullish harami). Midpoint above EMA(10). Back above all SMA's. Tested and held the 14.6% retrace (1319.09). Daily 3LB reversal up (reversal is 1305.14). QE2infinity. "JBTFD. Don't question it. Just do it. Trust me."
DXYBearish long day (confirmed bearish harami). Midpoint below EMA(10). Made a new 0.0% retrace (74.27). Below all SMA's. Daily 3LB reversal down (reversal is 75.50).
VIXBullish long day (after huge gap lower & still closed lower). Midpoint below EMA(10). Still below all SMA's. New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 16.59). Deep in the "no fear" zone.
GOLDSpinning top day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Made a new 0.0% retrace. Still above all SMA's. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1486.00). Holding above upper trend line. Must have the precious.
EURUSDBullish long day (confirmed bullish piercing). Midpoint above EMA(10). Back above 1.4374 (the 76.4% retrace). Back above all SMA's. Daily 3LB reversal up (reversal is 1.4215).
JNKSpinning top day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Back above all SMA's. Back above its 76.4% retrace (40.50). Tested and failed its 85.4% retrace (40.60). Still below lower trend line. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 40.21).
10YR YIELDDragonfly doji day (refused to go higher). No test of 0.0% retrace at 37.44. Still below all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and held 38.2% retrace (33.71). Held the upper trend line. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 34.66).
WTIBullish long day (confirmed bullish harami star). Still above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). No test of 0.0% retrace. No dally 3LB changes (reversal is 112.79). Back above weekly 3LB mid (108.61).
SILVERBullish long day. Still above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Made a new 0.0% retrace. Holding upper trend line. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 42.58). Almost time to start hiding the silverware.
TLTBearish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above SMA(21). Tested and failed the 23.6% retrace (93.14). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 89.68).
BKXSpinning top day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed SMA(144). Tested and held its 50.0% retrace (50.11). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 51.66).
COPPERBullish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Back above SMA(21). No tests of 0.0% retrace (4.649). Back above 23.6% retrace (4.302). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 4.187).
22 comments:
Time is not on my side today, and nor is my brain. I promise to post some thoughts on bonds when I get my head together. For the time being, I am long 5s, 10s, and 30s, but not very long, and my outlook is neutral for now.
For the time being, the action in EURUSD is making it extremely difficult for me to think straight. Not that I was killed today, but it's just not making a whole lot of sense to me at the moment.
I hope no one is short AAPL. The AH trade is screaming.
@Mel from the previous page...
Veal Piccata is "hands down" my favorite Italian dish. Difficult to believe someone, even on LSD, would pass out into it.
Awesome story, though.
That bear trap on Apple from a few days ago was friggin' classic.
Before I head out for $10 Steak Night with some "Suburb Dads," I just wanted say 'thank you' for the comments today on the "blog mods" and it was nice to see some familiar faces around to 'hood again.
Best, AT
LB
How's this for a bond report: http://www.zerohedge.com/article/closing-context-update-quality-continues
I know most of the terms but some still slip by.
OK PM people. Explain what does it mean when the amount of silver registered drops by 13%? They were transferred to eligible.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/45-scotia-mocattas-registered-silver-transferred-eligible-status
@Amen Ra
Every time I see that "terrorized, semi crying bear" foto I LMAO...
It has nothing to do with trading, or peoples market bets... It's just a funny foto... :-)
@Amen (8:41)
not that I'm the resident expert or anything (on PM's)...
But I'm just getting back now, and need a little time (and beer) to catch up with things...
@LB
Again... commenting 'quickly' here... (Remember - CV is the ultimate "straight from the top of my dome" FREESTYLER
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FXnT5NnHYEQ
But on this...
For the time being, the action in EURUSD is making it extremely difficult for me to think straight. Not that I was killed today, but it's just not making a whole lot of sense to me at the moment...
K.I.S.S.
Go with the CV vibe...
I called a 1.50 top a few weeks ago (after it broke 1.43)... And then there's always the European & Russian 'Labor Day' weekend (That's May 1) to deal with...
Go with the flow...
Rock the microfone!
@Amen (8:41)
I haven't had time to catch up with any links or articles...
I haven't been at the computer or in contact with 'the world' since about 3PM...
But before I even click on that link... My first "straight from the top of my dome impression???
...On "Explain what does it mean when the amount of silver registered drops by 13%?"...
HOARDING bitchez!
Now I'll research it to see if 'logic and research' trumps my 'gut instinct'...
@Amen (8:41...again)
My "dime" analysis (pre '64 Rosie - as the case may be - now that I've had a whole 20 minutes to look into it)... Is as follows:
"Delivery" has been an on again and off again issue since last December... Futures keep bouncing back from contango to backwardation...
They were heftily in backwardation before the March delivery, but then nudged back into contango...
With this most recent news, it appears that there have arisen backwardation issues again...
This my K.I.S.S. analysis "Delivery" (or "hoarding bitchez)...
May and July silver are now trading in backwardation to September and December...
http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/metals/precious/silver_quotes_globex.html
So at most logical... It seems the 'set-up' might end up similar to the Feb-March price action (last time it faced backwardation)...
Mind you... There were MULTIPLE 'attacks' on that during that time period (all ended in failure)...
But that is VERY SIMILAR to what I'd posted this morning when I said I'd expect to start seeing some WICKED price swings as it approaches $50 9which I still think it will hit (probably around the May 1 holiday timeframe)...
Remember back in Feb-March, they went as far as to fast track JPM to being a vault...
They certainly must be getting tired of paying "cash premiums" in lieu of failure to deliver...
And I'm SURE the 3 tons of stuff in cruise missles that the Nobel Peace Prize winning teleprompter in chief blew to smithereens by sending 120 cruise missles into Libya...
Which goes to say...
"You can't eat it... but you can BLOW IT UP"! :-)
In about a decade or so... Our primary military weapon might be the big pyrotechnic bonfire that we can TERRORIZE other countries (made out of our shredded dollar bills)...
@Amen
& oh by the way (on tonight's wrap - on silver)...
"Almost time to start hiding the silverware..."
Frankly - I'd still rather play HIDE THE SAUSAGE :-)
DXY is now officially below the 2009 lows and may break below 74 very soon. Silver has a high of 45.95 in the after hours so far.
GAME ON.
I'd like to nominate "This will be our next Black Swan" as the most misunderstood/overused phrase in the investor lexicon.
Anyone who might suggest such a thing is a FOOL. A true "Black Swan" event cannot be predicted before hand. If it could, it would not be a "Black Swan" event.
So, that'd be "Deep Thoughts by Jack Handy" moment for the evening.
oh jesus - now I see your point. God Andy, you are such a tool!
Andy T
An actual black swan would be China announcing "That's it! We're done! We will not buy any more UST until the US gets its financial house in order!"
Pay attention to the Chinese holiday schedule. That's when they like to make the big announcements.
Possible dates of nervousness:
Labor Day/May Day 5/1/11
Labor Day Holiday 5/2/11
National Day Golden Week Holiday 10/1/11-10/7/11
*sigh*...Silver unbelievable...Very powerful.
Amen. That kind of proclamation would certainly "create a stir."
I don't think it will happen because they'll be shooting themselves in the foot. But, that's sort of the consensus among economists. (Thus, it would be "Black Swan-ish")
Or OPEC could price oil in euros or yuan.
What really bothers me is that it will probably be something insignificant that becomes the trigger for the black swan event.
BTW all of JPM's silver is eligible...
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