TRADERS ANONYMOUS: Morning Corner 2.8.11

Morning Corner 2.8.11

AUDJPY (daily info)
new high 0.8303
trend=up
high= 0.8303
rev= 0.8258; mid= 0.8281

The AUDJPY cross has gotten some legs beneath it. Risk is back in vogue. But remember that everyone can't leave the party at once.

EEM (daily info)
-no change (above mid)
trend=up
low= 45.33
rev= 47.25; mid= 46.29

This is the second week EEM closed below its weekly 3LB mid. Weakness has set in. Let's see if the weekly 3LB makes a confirmation low (below 44.80) before calling for the demise of emerging markets. It's also below the 5/10-7/10 trendline. Patience young padawan.

EWZ (weekly info)
new low 71.99
trend=down
low= 71.99
rev= 76.57; mid= 74.28

Brazil is showing even more weakness than EEM. It's trending down on the weekly 3LB. Last week it closed below its monthly 3LB mid. The SMA(55) has been acting as support for the last couple of weeks. If that fails then support becomes the SMA(89) and that needs to hold or welcome to Sept 2008 all over again.

215 comments:

«Oldest ‹Older 1 – 200 of 215 Newer› Newest»

Bruce in Tennessee said...: Cameron Diaz futures are up...; February 8, 2011 at 7:16 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-08/asia-s-stocks-currencies-gain-on-outlook-for-global-growth-copper-falls.html

Stocks Fall on China Rates, German Output; Copper, Oil Decline

“There are inflationist signs and that incites China and other countries to progressively raise rates,” said Matthieu Giuliani, a fund manager at Palatine Asset Management in Paris, which oversees $5.47 billion. “This can weigh on those countries and on Europe and the U.S., which rely on emerging markets for growth. It will be difficult for the domestic European and U.S. economies to pick up from here and rely on their own growth.”

....?; February 8, 2011 at 7:26 AM
AmenRa said...: Bruce

The headline describing the fall in Germany's industrial output blames it on the weather. YGBFKM.; February 8, 2011 at 8:20 AM
CV said...: @Amen

CV blames it on the "WHETHER"... (as is "whether" or not we're running into another 2008 meltdown)...; February 8, 2011 at 8:33 AM
Anonymous said...: from ZH

"In a world in which every central bank is laser-focused on destroying its currency, interventions that serve to stabilize currencies are a fond memory. Yet that is precisely what the Egyptian Central Bank did earlier after it intervened directly in the FX market to support the EGPUSD after it plunged to lows of 0.168. Subsequent to the intervention the pound jumped modestly to 0.1701, which only means that the intervention support level will be promptly taken out in the next four days if not hours. The inverse spot rate is 5.8789, which as we predicted a few days ago is about to surge far higher, even when taking Ben Bernanke's admonitions that the ECB has no choice but to keep its currency weak. Of course, a plunge in the EGP simply means that food will get all that much more expense, and let's remember for a second just what was the reason for the revolution in Egypt to being with..."; February 8, 2011 at 8:36 AM
karen said...: good morning! bruce.. you are too funny.. AR.. did i mention last night that you forgot the JJC candle?!

look at the gold spike..; February 8, 2011 at 8:43 AM
Anonymous said...: Gold
1361.28
+10.19 +0.75%

karen,

"Spike" ? really? I was under the impression the 'Spikes' were ~3 (multiple) % points, no?

ibid.; February 8, 2011 at 8:48 AM
karen said...: and, CV, brot up a good point last night.. i found nothing odd about clip of cam feeding rod popcorn.. i thot it was cute, actually. around me you would get more likely get orange slices or watermelon chunks with squeezed lime, plump juicy grapes or ripe berries.. maybe some roasted cashews or almonds.. oh, and btw, would you like another cold beer?; February 8, 2011 at 8:52 AM
karen said...: Mark.. i'm showing up over 1%.. my definition of a spike is a quick move in a matter of minutes.. so in 15 min or so it spiked $15 plus.. to almost $1366.. looks to have backed off..; February 8, 2011 at 8:59 AM
Anonymous said...: k-

I hear ya, it's, just, that I don't, usually, bother to watch those short-term Charts..

actually, intra-day, I don't watch Charts, nearly, at all..

though, here
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=FOREX_XAUUSDO

Thursday had a good 'Spike', as well..

at these Price-levels, ~10-20 $ moves aren't that unusal in Gold, are they..

'MMods, in general, trade to trade 'choppy', no?
~~
also, I agree, re: ARod 'feeding', nothing wrong with it..

AAIP; February 8, 2011 at 9:17 AM
karen said...: http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2011/02/indian-stocks-falter-again-dropping-15.html; February 8, 2011 at 9:22 AM
CV said...: @karen (8:52)

Years ago when I was doing the "Match.com" thing (this is true)... In the part that said "what are you looking for in a woman"... I wrote:

"Well, anyone who was willing to show up at the door naked with a pizza & six pack of beer would instantly qualify"...

That one actually got by the censors, and oddly, I got a lot of responses that said they LOVED that... So guys... TAKE NOTE...; February 8, 2011 at 9:25 AM
karen said...: chet, you never confessed to match.com when i was talking about it a few weeks ago!; February 8, 2011 at 9:29 AM
Anonymous said...: http://www.zerohedge.com/article/morning-gold-fixing-gold-bullion-considered-collateral-international-clearing-house-%E2%80%93-lchcle

---

LCH.Clearnet is giving further consideration to a plan to accept gold bullion as collateral. They may accept gold bullion as collateral against margin positions on a range of asset classes and derivatives in the international financial markets.; February 8, 2011 at 9:38 AM
karen said...: Bruegel Think Tank Says Greece Should Restructure Debt Now, Claims Country Is Insolvent, Should Not Receive More Loans http://is.gd/zZvYG0; February 8, 2011 at 9:39 AM
Anonymous said...: (AP:RENO, Nev.) The U.S. Department of Agriculture is offering Nevada asparagus producers financial compensation for marketing losses resulting from imports during the 2004 through 2007 crop years.

USDA Farm Service Agency Nevada state executive Clint Koble announced Monday in Reno that producers can apply for compensation through April 8.

Koble says the Asparagus Revenue Market Loss Assistance Payment Program aims to help commercial producers whose livelihoods were affected when asparagus imports dramatically increased during those years.

A one-time payment can total up to $1.06 per pound for fresh market asparagus and $1.08 per pound for asparagus marketed for processing.

Payments are calculated based on 2003 marketed production quantities.

Koble says producers with an average gross income in excess of $2.5 million for calendar years 2003, 2004 and 2005 aren't eligible.
http://news.ino.com/headlines/?newsid=6897687672712

ibid.; February 8, 2011 at 9:40 AM
Anonymous said...: and, We 'think' we've problems w/ the Tea Party (?)

(AP:BUCHAREST, Romania) There's more bad news in the cards for Romania's beleaguered witches.

A month after Romanian authorities began taxing them for their trade, the country's soothsayers and fortune tellers are cursing a new bill that threatens fines or even prison if their predictions don't come true.

Witches argue they shouldn't be blamed for the failure of their tools.

"They can't condemn witches, they should condemn the cards," Queen witch Bratara Buzea told The Associated Press by telephone.

Superstition is a serious matter in the land of Dracula, and officials have turned to witches to help the recession-hit country collect more money and crack down on tax evasion.

In January, officials changed labor laws to officially recognize the centuries-old practice as a taxable profession, prompting angry witches to dump poisonous mandrake into the Danube in an attempt to put a hex on the government....
http://news.ino.com/headlines/?newsid=68976876770711

The AP, always good for a BS 'Headline'..

AAIP; February 8, 2011 at 9:44 AM
Papa Doo Rag said...: Bruegel Think Tank Says Greece Should Restructure Debt Now, Claims Country Is Insolvent, Should Not Receive More Loans http://is.gd/zZvYG0

-----

If you bet against Greece you will lose your shirt.; February 8, 2011 at 9:45 AM
karen said...: LULU IS UFB..; February 8, 2011 at 10:05 AM
karen said...: LULU short position about 16%.. bet that is keeping it aloft..

seriously, and how do they do their accounting.. it costs money to open and staff stores.. sure the margin on those stretchy clothes might be high.. but this is truly ABSURD.; February 8, 2011 at 10:07 AM
karen said...: http://www.zerohedge.com/article/rosenberg-how-only-10-year-can-break-markets-trendline-and-what-can-dent-top-line-corporate-; February 8, 2011 at 10:10 AM
karen said...: cute photo of Nick Nolte (70 today!)

http://dlisted.com/node/40715; February 8, 2011 at 10:17 AM
karen said...: More wealthy DC residents registering guns http://yhoo.it/fz0vlS; February 8, 2011 at 10:18 AM
lulu said...: If you bet against LULU you will lose your leotard...; February 8, 2011 at 10:24 AM
Anonymous said...: Interesting kittle VIX candle working today; February 8, 2011 at 10:27 AM
Anonymous said...: re: LULU

http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=TLB&ty=c&ta=1&p=d

TLB ~5.53
~~
http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=GRM&ty=c&ta=1&p=d

~16.49

ibid.; February 8, 2011 at 10:29 AM
A fixed income analyst to be named later said...: A bit late today... I was waylaid this morning.

Bonds a bit stronger, EMs a bit weaker. Voldemort came through with the hike. Now, will others follow?; February 8, 2011 at 10:31 AM
karen said...: I might have to slit my wrists if the dollar doesn't get off the mat.. is the DGDF ever going to end?; February 8, 2011 at 10:34 AM
karen said...: look and bonds again..; February 8, 2011 at 10:34 AM
I-Man said...: Sweet little Bucky will be just fine...

:); February 8, 2011 at 10:36 AM
A fixed income analyst to be named later said...: Good point K, I am fixated on the rear end. Of the curve.

The next move by Bucky will be sharp
- and bad news for EM longs.; February 8, 2011 at 10:37 AM
Mr Bond said...: A little pre-auction push to get the 10y out to 3.70-3.75%.

Then they will all want me.; February 8, 2011 at 10:38 AM
"AS" if said...: "Sweet little Bucky will be just fine..."

http://www.dl.ket.org/latinlit/mores/currency/currency.htm; February 8, 2011 at 10:39 AM
Anonymous said...: http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=BOE.V&ql=1

10:14AM EST: 2.84 -0.02 (0.70%)

this little Co., should do well..

ibid.; February 8, 2011 at 10:43 AM
I-Man said...: @ "AS"

Its THE TIME... not the outcome.

Confident that your timing is right?; February 8, 2011 at 10:43 AM
Anonymous said...: http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=ZNC.TO&ql=1

this little Org. should 3x by ~Oct.

AAIP; February 8, 2011 at 10:44 AM
AmenRa said...: There's silver approaching $30 again. Now add in mints who keep running out of silver. Prices probably should be much higher.; February 8, 2011 at 10:45 AM
Andy T said...: It's all fun and games until you get killed by a chicken....

http://losangeles.cbslocal.com/2011/02/07/rooster-kills-man-attending-cockfight/; February 8, 2011 at 10:48 AM
Anonymous said...: So happy we are not sporting a Widowmaker.

Don't bend over in front of the golden steamroller.; February 8, 2011 at 10:52 AM
Anonymous said...: AR,

re: Ag

no kidding..the 'Deflationist'-view on the PMs, esp. Argent, has been 'out to Lunch'..

ibid.; February 8, 2011 at 10:53 AM
karen said...: AIG is delaying.. guess there were no buyers.. even with market at this level? eurphoria getting shy? or maybe the only ones moving this market are black boxes.; February 8, 2011 at 10:54 AM
karen said...: look at the dollar now.. what in the heck!; February 8, 2011 at 10:56 AM
AS if said...: There is a fine line between "confidence", and "cock-i-ness".

Just ask Andy T's chicken up there.; February 8, 2011 at 10:56 AM
karen said...: well, the dollar isn't giving much of a boost to crude..; February 8, 2011 at 10:57 AM
I-Man said...: Dont be a "con" or a "cock", Anonymous.; February 8, 2011 at 10:59 AM
karen said...: http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/quantitative-easing-finance-equity-markets-fed/2/8/2011/id/32670; February 8, 2011 at 10:59 AM
karen said...: and the euro is up because???; February 8, 2011 at 11:01 AM
Occam's Razor said...: From Minyanville article

"Regardless of the Fed’s role, there have been other, more disturbing bits of evidence that we are in a Matrix Market. Exhibit One is the so-called flash crash of May 2010 during which stocks fell by 600 points in five minutes before staging and equally vertiginous recovery. The crash offered evidence that something truly scary lay behind the reassuring façade of buoyant markets. Subsequent investigation revealed that High Frequency Trading, which relies on algorithms to execute super-fast trades, exacerbated the collapse. Revelations about the extraordinary percentage (sometimes over 80%) of trading attributable to HFT programs in stocks such as Citi (C) and AIG (AIG) suggest that the metaphor of a Matrix Market may be literally as well as figuratively true, and also helped explain how a market suffering continuing retail withdrawals could still rise to a multi-year high during a very weak economic recovery. Economist Michael Hudson of the University of Missouri calculated that the average time a stock was held during 2010 was 22 seconds, not exactly buy and hold.

Of course it’s entirely possible that both HFT and the impact of the Fed’s easing program are overblown; that the market’s rise can be simply explained by solid corporate earnings and the perception of a real recovery. If that’s the case, the market will continue to plug higher so long as the recovery story remains credible to investors and earnings hold up. If, however, the rally is largely an artifact of the jet fuel supplied by the Fed and amplified by algorithmic trading, then watch out"; February 8, 2011 at 11:15 AM
Andy T said...: Here's the dip on the DXY...maybe carving out the right shoulder. 77.60 and 77.32 are first and second levels of support. Decent risk/reward with cash DXY printing 77.73. The stop loss point is fairly well defined.; February 8, 2011 at 11:20 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The Federal Reserve Bank of New York bought $2.19 billion in Treasury debt on Tuesday, part of the Fed's second round of quantitative easing, and includes purchases made under a previous program to reinvest cash from its maturing mortgage-related holdings back into Treasurys. Dealers offered the central bank $9.391 billion in debt maturing from 2028 to 2040. Since the program began in August, the Fed had bought $387 billion through Monday, according to Morgan Stanley. After the buyback, Treasury prices stayed down, pushing yields higher. Ten-year note yields rose 2 basis points, or 0.02%, to 3.67%.; February 8, 2011 at 11:22 AM
karen said...: do I SPY a canard in the market? http://chart.ly/l9tapui; February 8, 2011 at 11:25 AM
karen said...: and the dow is up because???; February 8, 2011 at 11:30 AM
karen said...: oh, i can answer that.. because DIA volume is dropping to near zero..; February 8, 2011 at 11:31 AM
Anonymous said...: Someone is buying the Dow stocks....?; February 8, 2011 at 11:31 AM
Anonymous said...: The JP Morgue must be short crude:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-08/jpmorgan-says-bullish-crude-oil-investors-should-consider-taking-profit.html; February 8, 2011 at 11:34 AM
karen said...: the dollar has a pulse!; February 8, 2011 at 11:44 AM
karen said...: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-08/ex-lehman-executives-underwriters-accused-by-calpers-of-hiding-bond-risks.html; February 8, 2011 at 11:49 AM
AmenRa said...: TLT formed a bullish piercing yesterday.; February 8, 2011 at 12:03 PM
A fixed income analyst to be named later said...: DXY double bottom? Let's hope it holds.; February 8, 2011 at 12:11 PM
karen said...: The Motley Fool
RT @TMFRuleBreakers: A disturbing milestone for Lululemon ($LULU) Cramer dresses up to pitch the stock: http://mot.ly/erkNW3; February 8, 2011 at 12:13 PM
A fixed income analyst to be named later said...: 80bps on 2y. Astonishing scenes.; February 8, 2011 at 12:17 PM
A fixed income analyst to be named later said...: 3y auction ahead at 1pm. The big one is on Wednesday - 10y.; February 8, 2011 at 12:18 PM
Anonymous said...: 89.49 +0.22 (0.25%) 12:21PM EST TLT

Fixxy,

what are you sweating?

ibid.; February 8, 2011 at 12:25 PM
A fixed income analyst to be named later said...: Mark

We never sweat during trading hours. In fact, we barely perspire.
Remember, we are British.; February 8, 2011 at 12:33 PM
AmenRa said...: 2yr T-Bill had a weekly 3LB reversal down last week (below 109.211). It also is now trading below its monthly 3LB reversal price (109.320).; February 8, 2011 at 12:44 PM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/jobs-report-january-jobs-employment-situation/2/7/2011/id/32671?camp=featuredslide&medium=home&from=minyanville

Why the January Jobs Report Is Alarming

"In this respect, no amount of weather-spinning can obfuscate the dismal facts about the medium-term jobs trend -- to say nothing of any net job gains since the last century! Specifically, during the December 2007-June 2009 official recession period, we lost 7.3 million nonfarm payroll jobs, bringing the nonfarm payroll count to 130.64 million at the point the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) said recovery officially commenced. But after 19 months of green shoots, we now actually have 400,000 fewer jobs. And, yes, employment is purportedly a lagging indicator, but it is simply off the historical charts to have the job count down 5.5% at a point that is currently 37 months after the cyclical peak.

Until the latest benchmark adjustments, December 2009 was the low point in the jobs cycle and as of December 2010 reporting, we had apparently gained 1.1 million jobs, or about 100,000 per month -- not enough to cover working age population growth but at least modest progress. But now Lucy has pulled the football here, too. As of the January report, the nonfarm job gain since December 2009 is now only 677,000, or just 52,000 per month. At the rate of gain over the past 13 months, therefore, it will take 160 more months to recover the jobs lost during the Great Recession."; February 8, 2011 at 12:46 PM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: Mr. Stockman has been looking at CR's red line much too long...have some popcorn!; February 8, 2011 at 12:47 PM
AmenRa said...: 10yr T-Note is now confirming its monthly 3LB reversal down (being below 120.438). It's also solidly below SMA(55) on the weekly chart.; February 8, 2011 at 12:48 PM
karen said...: (not a JW article) http://www.businessinsider.com/home-prices-decline-fifth-month-2011-2; February 8, 2011 at 12:49 PM
Anonymous said...: Noah Freeman and Donald Longueuil , former junior portfolio managers at SAC Capital Advisors LP, according to a person familiar with the matter, were among four hedge fund employees charged in a U.S. crackdown on insider trading.

Nobody has given up Stevie yet, but the net is tightening....; February 8, 2011 at 12:53 PM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: By the way, I think most of us here would get something from the Stockman piece, especially his thoughts and graphs on "breadwinner jobs"..; February 8, 2011 at 12:56 PM
karen said...: bondscoop Mike Jackson
Fed added 2 to primary dealer list. Thsi should decr. direct bids and incr. dealer bids. Do not be surprised with a drop in the direct %.; February 8, 2011 at 12:57 PM
AmenRa said...: I just noticed that the 2yr yield had a monthly 3LB reversal up 12/10 but the 2yr bill didn't reverse down until now.; February 8, 2011 at 1:00 PM
A fixed income analyst to be named later said...: UUP down. EEM down. Interesting and unusual.

Correlation breakdowns - major turn in the works?; February 8, 2011 at 1:01 PM
Anonymous said...: Hedgies will smell weakness.
Like piranha they will swarm and strip the EMs to the bone.; February 8, 2011 at 1:02 PM
A fixed income analyst to be named later said...: 3y auction

Total Amount $32 B
Bid/Cover 3.01
Yield Awarded 1.349%

weak auction and a 7 bps tail on the yield.
this was always going to be the worst of the three !; February 8, 2011 at 1:04 PM
karen said...: Santelli grades 3 yr auction at C+. B-to-C is 3.01. Treasury sells $32bln at 1.349% $$; February 8, 2011 at 1:06 PM
A fixed income analyst to be named later said...: My man, Reggie has got some game !!

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/dr-bernanke-shalom-benenake-aka-dr-frankenfinance-blew-many-bubbles-finance-capital-nyc-cond

Take it to the house, Reggie !; February 8, 2011 at 1:14 PM
A fixed income analyst to be named later said...: Yes that auction is what is known in England as "a real stinker"; February 8, 2011 at 1:14 PM
karen said...: That was a rant! (RM's piece.) The Stockman article was on the line as well.; February 8, 2011 at 1:20 PM
Anonymous said...: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-07/danish-banks-face-consolidation-as-amagerbanken-leaves-investors-in-lurch.html?t=CF-OK&pos=3

Interesting. I was there last summer and they have a big property bubble. Not a big economy but it might pop. Less corrupt than Ireland. They do have tremendous belief in their own infallibility, so overleveraged banks are not surprising.; February 8, 2011 at 1:20 PM
Anonymous said...: Nobody rants like Reggie.

A shit-load of condo projects are being finished in Harlem. I am sure they were bailed out "for the people". Not for the banks or developers.

Not sure who will buy them if the bankers stop shitting bonus bucks.; February 8, 2011 at 1:23 PM
Anonymous said...: EEM trading like a turd in a swimming pool.; February 8, 2011 at 1:24 PM
karen said...: http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/02/08/greece-eu-juncker-idUSATH00590920110208

Eurogroup chairman Jean-Claude Juncker said on Tuesday he was open to a Greek debt buyback and a 30-year extension to the repayment of the country's bailout loans if Germany would consider it.; February 8, 2011 at 1:28 PM
karen said...: Cando tanking on crude? Traded in the remainder of my loonies yesterday..; February 8, 2011 at 1:31 PM
karen said...: so was that a dead cat bounce for TLT yesterday?; February 8, 2011 at 1:35 PM
karen said...: well, maybe this will be of interest to someone: African luxury hotel now massive squat

http://www.boingboing.net/2011/02/08/african-luxury-hotel.html; February 8, 2011 at 1:48 PM
karen said...: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0_MnagdE_8k

Lawrence McDonald: Everybody is being Bamboozled; February 8, 2011 at 1:52 PM
AmenRa said...: karen

re:TLT

A non confirmation of the bullish piercing would probably be considered a dead cat bounce.; February 8, 2011 at 2:01 PM
Dead Cat said...: i resemble that remark..; February 8, 2011 at 2:02 PM
The Long Bond said...: Too early to bury me.
Pre-auction shorting.; February 8, 2011 at 2:03 PM
AmenRa said...: Heh heh. Just when BB & TG thought the yields on the 10yr & 30yr would decrease they flip the script and march higher.; February 8, 2011 at 2:04 PM
karen said...: I'm holding out hope for you Mr. Long Bond.. just don't we are quite there yet..; February 8, 2011 at 2:09 PM
Andy T said...: Enterprise Products has a huge fire going in Mont Belvieu, TX.; February 8, 2011 at 2:10 PM
karen said...: http://www.nytimes.com/packages/html/world/middleeast/201101-egypt-protest-gallery/; February 8, 2011 at 2:11 PM
karen said...: andy, i saw that on twitter.. it was quickly turned into a bid on crude.. just as the suez canal strikes were this morning..; February 8, 2011 at 2:14 PM
Anonymous said...: Dustbin fire in Rochdale. Nigerian incident.

Crude rallies...; February 8, 2011 at 2:15 PM
A fixed income analyst to be named later said...: BTW, Yves had a go at Krugman for not understanding futures.

Again...; February 8, 2011 at 2:16 PM
Mohamed El-Erian said...: AR

it's a SUGAR HIGH. In the NEW NORMAL, BB wanted peep to sell Ts and buy JUNK so that the BANKS can buy the Ts back at lower prices. Meanwhile everyone beats the inflation drum and scares peep out of bonds.

So Qe2 was a success.; February 8, 2011 at 2:19 PM
karen said...: The silver squeeze is hysterical to me.. GLD has a ways to go before it turns its 13/34 ema trend chart back up.. SLV euphoria may be short lived..; February 8, 2011 at 2:19 PM
Mohamed El-Erian said...: As Bill would say, Treasuries for manipulation, munis for income and a young camel for ecstasy.; February 8, 2011 at 2:20 PM
Anonymous said...: Is it just me or does EEM have an appointment with 44?; February 8, 2011 at 2:21 PM
A fixed income analyst to be named later said...: Looks like we will be digging deep into our vaults for cash today.
Another little punt in the direction of fixed income coming up.; February 8, 2011 at 2:23 PM
karen said...: twitter and the market are trading real-time.. lol.. when rumors move markets.. skittishness is at an extreme level.; February 8, 2011 at 2:24 PM
karen said...: EEM is looking very 44ish to me.; February 8, 2011 at 2:26 PM
Jennifer said...: I got so tired of waiting for Giles that I went for a manicure. My typing is dramatically improved now :-) Miss any good dip buying opportunities?; February 8, 2011 at 2:27 PM
Anonymous said...: Tiny bit of Cold Steel. Remember when he could ramp you to Heaven, ladies? Now he hardly seems capable of Afternoon Delight...

He is certainly not deterring me from my Firm Shorts.

Giles is going to get busy after the 30y auction. 1pm Thursday.; February 8, 2011 at 2:31 PM
Giles Straightarrow said...: Models and Bottles, and Suction Machines.

This is how we roll.; February 8, 2011 at 2:31 PM
Gary Cohn said...: Is the machine ready, Giles? We don't want any mistakes....
Last time we did a test run it got caught on Abby Jo's dress.

The therapy was expensive...; February 8, 2011 at 2:33 PM
Abby Joseph Cohen said...: You told me you loved it.

DOW 33k, btw.; February 8, 2011 at 2:33 PM
Lord Blankfiend said...: No mistakes this time. Heads will roll.
You don't want to be the next Fabulous Fab.; February 8, 2011 at 2:34 PM
Diane Swank said...: The US economy is a powerful job creating machine.; February 8, 2011 at 2:35 PM
Brian Wesbury said...: What? Even I don't believe that.; February 8, 2011 at 2:35 PM
Brian Sack said...: The US economy is a powerful Ponzi and POMO machine.; February 8, 2011 at 2:36 PM
Bond Crash said...: I am not going to happen. It might be fun...
But I am not going to happen.; February 8, 2011 at 2:37 PM
Bucky the Talking Currency said...: I am not going anywhere either.; February 8, 2011 at 2:38 PM
Cold Steel said...: Are you suggesting I am losing my leverage?; February 8, 2011 at 2:39 PM
Mr Shorty said...: You are about as dangerous as a soggy stick of celery.; February 8, 2011 at 2:41 PM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: Ok...Lefty..I have been wondering for some time why a great many of your comments were about,er,you know....

..it almost seemed at times like you were banned from women...I thought...Nah, can't be...Can it?

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/41476929/ns/world_news-europe/

UK man with low IQ banned from having sex

........Where did you say you were from...?; February 8, 2011 at 2:41 PM
karen said...: dia, spy, qqqq, all at half volume with an hour and 15 to go..; February 8, 2011 at 2:42 PM
The Long Bond said...: They want to tag 3.75% on the 10y. Told you so.; February 8, 2011 at 2:42 PM
karen said...: lulu in pennant.. since it already broke up once.. the breakdown is eminent..; February 8, 2011 at 2:42 PM
Anonymous said...: What is volume on eem? Same deal?; February 8, 2011 at 2:43 PM
karen said...: Mr. Long.. looks like they are going for 4 to me..; February 8, 2011 at 2:44 PM
Gary Shilling said...: I have run out of boots again. Can't get enough long bonds.; February 8, 2011 at 2:44 PM
karen said...: on eem, basically, yes.; February 8, 2011 at 2:44 PM
karen said...: http://finance.yahoo.com/video/marketnews-19148628/schroeder-says-gist-of-whitney-s-muni-forecast-valid-24118491;_ylt=A9G_RrnvmlFNeyYB6hy7YWsA;_ylu=X3oDMTExaDdlYWh2BHBvcwMzBHNlYwN2aWRlb3MEc2xrA3NjaHJvZWRlcnNheQ--

Feb. 8 (Bloomberg) -- Alice Schroeder, a Bloomberg columnist and author, discusses Wall Street's reaction to analyst Meredith Whitney's forecast for municipal bonds. Whitney made the predictions during a Dec. 19 segment of CBS's 60 Minutes. "You could see 50 sizable defaults, 50 to 100…; February 8, 2011 at 2:46 PM
Anonymous said...: Mr. Long.. looks like they are going for 4 to me..

Have you been peeking again?
4.00% is possible again, but not in our model.
We model the 30y anyway in the 4.6-4.8% band.
Model still valid.

4 would be über-bearish for equities.

The 30y mtg has hit 4.99%, not much room there.; February 8, 2011 at 2:47 PM
I-Man said...: These bids are relentless... big change getting tossed around on little pullbacks...; February 8, 2011 at 2:49 PM
Gary Shilling said...: Ts will rally on

Muni weakness
Commodity correction
Euro debt problems
EM bond sell off
Equity weakness
Credit risk perception
Weaker employment
Slower economic data
Short squeeze
Bank recapitalization trade

Even Marc F thinks they will rally

- before bekoming VURTHLEZZ.; February 8, 2011 at 2:50 PM
Liam Gallagher said...: What's interesting today is the TIPS spread hasn't budged.
So whatever this is about it is not INFLATION.

Must be the DYNAMIC JOBS RECOVERY. Or the auctions...; February 8, 2011 at 2:52 PM
A fixed income analyst to be named later said...: Liam

I thought you were a daft guitarist from Manchester?; February 8, 2011 at 2:53 PM
Liam Gallagher said...: Sorry.

Wrong blog.

Beer, birds, Oasis and football...; February 8, 2011 at 2:53 PM
Anonymous said...: That's better.; February 8, 2011 at 2:54 PM
A fixed income analyst to be named later said...: The horror, the horror.....; February 8, 2011 at 2:55 PM
Cold Steel said...: I am doing it to you.; February 8, 2011 at 2:56 PM
Anonymous said...: Is that all you got?; February 8, 2011 at 2:56 PM
karen said...: If we go red at the close.. I promise a new avatar for tomorrow.. something red, of course...; February 8, 2011 at 2:58 PM
karen said...: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/robert-auerbach/has-computer-trading-made_b_819664.html; February 8, 2011 at 2:59 PM
Anonymous said...: LB,

here's something for you to think about..

http://www.whale.to/a/monsanto_h.html

should help 'calm the voices' .. :)

ibid.; February 8, 2011 at 3:00 PM
Jennifer said...: If we went red at the close, I might actually get an avatar!; February 8, 2011 at 3:03 PM
I-Man said...: If we close red, I will never post here again...; February 8, 2011 at 3:03 PM
Colin said...: All we can do here is hold our noses and buy a little bit more. Cold steel indeed.

- Knife Catcher Capital LLC; February 8, 2011 at 3:04 PM
karen said...: I-Man, don't be like that, LOL!; February 8, 2011 at 3:05 PM
karen said...: Diana Olick
MillerTabak's Boockvar:"W/Treas selloff&further jump in yields, 30yr FNMA coupon highest since 4/10.30yr morg rate will be above 5% tomorrow; February 8, 2011 at 3:06 PM
Anonymous said...: (sound of heavy breathing.....); February 8, 2011 at 3:07 PM
I-Man said...: I'm just saying how low a probability I think that outcome is without being mean.

On YM, we're right at the mid of a bullish price channel, so I dont see us turning back now. Better chance we tag the top of the channel again, right now, around 12220 if we hit it before the close.

Besides, all yall know I wouldnt be able to stay away for more than an hour... day at best.; February 8, 2011 at 3:08 PM
A fixed income analyst to be named later said...: Knife Catcher Capital LLC fixed income specialists commented "I've got blisters on my fingers".

Schadenfreude Asset Management agreed: "We are down to the change jars in the kitchen here but we are still buying Treasuries."

5% mortgages is a danger sign for THE BERNANK. Somewhere in the Eccles building, THE BERNANK is buying TLT calls.; February 8, 2011 at 3:11 PM
karen said...: 14565 is the number for the $wlsh to beat.. we are almost there.. 14027.00 is the HOD..; February 8, 2011 at 3:13 PM
AmenRa said...: Ummm what was that move at 15:10 on the SPX 1-min chart?; February 8, 2011 at 3:15 PM
I-Man said...: @ Ra

Where a bunch of folks who faded that last spike had their buystops, and where some folks who knew better hit the hammer on the bids.; February 8, 2011 at 3:16 PM
karen said...: and AR, looking at the one min chart.. you see that rev h&s??; February 8, 2011 at 3:17 PM
Anonymous said...: should help 'calm the voices' .. :)

ROR.... we have always had a rich inner life, Marky.; February 8, 2011 at 3:18 PM
karen said...: could drive us straight to 1330! ;o; February 8, 2011 at 3:18 PM
karen said...: somebody flipped on the buy switch at 3.. where are those rolling blackouts when you need 'em?; February 8, 2011 at 3:21 PM
Jennifer said...: In the spirit of sharing...here is an interesting chart of SPX with rolling POMO overlaid.
http://screencast.com/t/Q2oJT7vDaN; February 8, 2011 at 3:26 PM
A fixed income analyst to be named later said...: Added to EM shorts. Cold Steel seems to be US based these days.
Added to Treasury longs....

Cash levels are almost exhausted. The exception is a 10% block we have designated for fixed income hedging going forward.

3.75% and 4.80% were the limits of the model. We guessed that would be equivalent to a 30y mtg just above 5%, and up to 5.25%. After that we think a whole lot of bad things start happening to banks, CMBS.

Looking around there are a lot of correlation breakdowns, so if this isn't a turn in something (bucky, EMs, commodities) then we are wrong and we are probably going to be described as InvestTools for a while.

We do hope not. we hate to be B in Ts whipping boy.; February 8, 2011 at 3:27 PM
karen said...: http://www.businessinsider.com/the-entire-us-economy-in-three-simple-rail-charts-2011-2; February 8, 2011 at 3:27 PM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: Aw, you might like it...; February 8, 2011 at 3:34 PM
I-Man said...: @ Ra

To take it a little deeper, I think that someone has a program, that is designed to hunt other programs.

This program knows how much, and at what speed to move price in a low volume period, in order to trigger sell programs in an overbought condition in an uptrend.

This all happens on a timeframe probably even faster than the 1min.

It then knows to go for the kill once the buystops of the sell programs are tripped.

Could be just a pipe dream from the I-Man's dome... but I think its real.

At least I trade like that shit is real, better safe than sorry.; February 8, 2011 at 3:34 PM
The Long Bond said...: Here's my chart. Even in 2007, my yield was only 5.40%:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=TYX:IND

2008 was about 4.85% and April 2010 was 4.80%.

The Bond has got his hat on, hip hip hip hooray....
The long bond's got his hat on and he's coming out to play.; February 8, 2011 at 3:36 PM
Anonymous said...: Singing bonds?
I guess equities have been wearing a clown nose for a while....; February 8, 2011 at 3:37 PM
karen said...: $wlsh bettered its previous high.. 14029.25.. no way that even number was gonna stick...; February 8, 2011 at 3:38 PM
Morpheus said...: It then knows to go for the kill once the buystops of the sell programs are tripped.

This is the Matrix, Neo...; February 8, 2011 at 3:38 PM
I-Man said...: The aforementioned sell programs are designed themselves to hunt stops in uptrends, especially accelerating ones.

They in turn can be piled on by momentum traders, especially when there is the smell of fear in the air.

But most of the time, I think they suck in shorts who are fighting the tape, and perpetuate the uptrend, like in the instance you pointed out earlier.

The speed increases the volatility in all of this, and if there are competing sellers, then look out below.

Thats when it turns into a pack of wild dogs.

So, not anyone in particular, or any computer in particular is in control, its a web of action, and counteraction.; February 8, 2011 at 3:39 PM
Anonymous said...: Remember when there was a Market, a Free Market?

No. Neither do I....; February 8, 2011 at 3:39 PM
karen said...: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/02/record-low-arctic-sea-ice-extent-for-january/; February 8, 2011 at 3:40 PM
I-Man said...: Of course, all that crap is just like, my opinion, man.; February 8, 2011 at 3:41 PM
A fixed income analyst to be named later said...: I have given up entering stops. If we look like a Fwash Cwash is setting up, I will even take the deep stops off my divvys.

I just put a trade on now, and if I don't like how it goes within a given time-frame, I take it off.; February 8, 2011 at 3:42 PM
I-Man said...: What's a "FREE MARKET"?

I've only been watching this shit flicker in green and red lights since 2005...

Lame, I know.; February 8, 2011 at 3:42 PM
Noo Yawker said...: record-low-arctic-sea-ice

Yeah it's all on my car....; February 8, 2011 at 3:43 PM
Morpheus said...: What's a "FREE MARKET"?

One with no holes, Neo. Born free, right here in Zion.; February 8, 2011 at 3:44 PM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: Actually, from my rather simple seat, if rates keep rising anything like they have lately...I would still bet the farm stocks will correct hard..

I will watch this for a few more days, but if things keep up, I suspect I will have to short the DOW...; February 8, 2011 at 3:45 PM
I-Man said...: AFIATBNL,

Probably a good strategy if you're attentive.

The stop placement is certainly a finesse thing... art.

The hardest thing for the I is not taking a small loss, or even a few in a row, tho that does piss one off, its getting clipped out by a protective stop, only to have your profitable trade, clipped out on a midtrend low to the tick, and then continue another 25 pts higher...

THAT, really pisses one off.

Throw in a couple of botched entries trying to chase your way back into the trend, and you have an idea that was "right", end up not making you a dime.

I keep telling I-Self that it doesnt matter as long as you're booking gains, but its very hard.; February 8, 2011 at 3:47 PM
A fixed income analyst to be named later said...: Bruce,

These rates are already enough to strangle housing sales/prices.
A rotation from risk assets into bonds is way overdue.

1pm Thursday after the 30y auction. If not before.; February 8, 2011 at 3:48 PM
karen said...: DIA 2008 high 122.46.. today, 122.17 !!!!!

spy 2008 high 135.73.. today, 132.56 (so far)

and the Qs haven't been this high (58.01) since 2001; February 8, 2011 at 3:48 PM
A fixed income analyst to be named later said...: The hardest thing for the I is not taking a small loss, or even a few in a row, tho that does piss one off, its getting clipped out by a protective stop, only to have your profitable trade, clipped out on a midtrend low to the tick, and then continue another 25 pts higher...

Surely this is the only reason for HFT/robos to exist...?; February 8, 2011 at 3:49 PM
I-Man said...: Side note:

Bucky's lil tail did make a nice comeback today.

Looks like "real money buying" like the boyz at forexlive say.; February 8, 2011 at 3:50 PM
AmenRa said...: I think the two current targets on the SPX are 1333.58 which is up 100% from the low and 1361.50 which is the 76.4% retrace of 1576.09-666.79. IMHO.; February 8, 2011 at 3:50 PM
I-Man said...: For certain, it is uncanny how they sniff them out.

Just part of the game, though.

Fuckers.; February 8, 2011 at 3:51 PM
Bucky the Talking Currency said...: Running up the stock market and the price of raised ranches with marble vanities and granite kitchen counters at the expense of enormous debt to be paid back by future generations really has to be one of the most stupid, pointless and self-destructive acts that a nation could ever undertake.

Thanks, Ben.; February 8, 2011 at 3:52 PM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: Well, Lefty, my wife and I have just been discussing hanging up the shingle and just living the life of Riley for the next few decades...but I won't be able to resist betting against the DOW if this keeps up...

Our group sells the entire mine in April...time to use the lottery ticket. We've been talking to suitors for 2 months..; February 8, 2011 at 3:52 PM
I-Man said...: If they dont make a big push by the time I'm done typing this I'm bailin...; February 8, 2011 at 3:52 PM
Anonymous said...: What's interesting is how little progress is being made everyday by stocks that actually pay a dividend.

This really is a pet rock.com rally; February 8, 2011 at 3:53 PM
I-Man said...: Ites...

Was a good day.; February 8, 2011 at 3:53 PM
Jennifer said...: Just every little once in a while, I'd like those triangle/wedge thingys to break DOWN.; February 8, 2011 at 3:55 PM
Anonymous said...: We can also leave the mine at any time, thanks to having escaped the Crash in 2008. Digging isn't as much fun as it used to be. It will be time to leave it to the young 'uns soon.; February 8, 2011 at 3:55 PM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: I really want a couple of those surfboards with the sail in the middle thingys...windsurfing here with all this wind should be awesome, and I have never tried it..; February 8, 2011 at 3:56 PM
Jennifer said...: Good luck with the sale, Bruce.; February 8, 2011 at 3:56 PM
karen said...: DIA high.. 122.22. '08 high 122.46.. close enuf for government work.
on a monthly chart.. that 08 high was the turn.. waterfall to 61.49.; February 8, 2011 at 3:59 PM
I-Man said...: Ra is the expert, but I think that triangle patterns are predominantly continuation patterns.; February 8, 2011 at 4:00 PM
A fixed income analyst to be named later said...: We sold our DF stake just now. We were up 41%...
Pigs get slaughtered...; February 8, 2011 at 4:00 PM
Jennifer said...: I-Man -- they are. Just sayin'.; February 8, 2011 at 4:01 PM
A fixed income analyst to be named later said...: The Bond Report 2.8.11

A man is sobbing uncontrollably into his pillow. He is a fixed income investor. COLD STEEL is at the window, looking out at the grey landscape, smoking a cigarette.

Fade to Black...; February 8, 2011 at 4:03 PM
I-Man said...: My bad, I failed to detect thy snark.; February 8, 2011 at 4:04 PM
karen said...: Dow extends run into seventh day, the longest winning streak in nearly seven months
02/08/2011 04:02:24 PM; February 8, 2011 at 4:04 PM
Anonymous said...: So AFIA, let's look forward to better days... what's your upside target for TLT?; February 8, 2011 at 4:07 PM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: The corporation that will win our fair hands, probably, had already agreed to all our preconditions...

...Only problem is I still love what I do...I doubt I would have be as good at almost any other profession you can imagine...I may just keep mining...; February 8, 2011 at 4:09 PM
AmenRa said...: AFIA2BNL

I'm over here dying of laughter.; February 8, 2011 at 4:12 PM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: AFIA:

You'd feel better if you had an industrial-strength hanky..better to blow your nose with whenever you feel all your Ben Franklins have left you...; February 8, 2011 at 4:15 PM

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This blog should not be interpreted as investment advice of any kind. The authors are NOT representing themselves CTAs or CFAs or Investment/Trading Advisor of any kind. The authors may or may not trade in the markets discussed. The authors may hold positions opposite of what may by inferred by this blog.The information contained in this blog is taken from sources the authors believes to be reliable, but it is not guaranteed by the authors as to the accuracy or completeness thereof and is presented here for information purposes only. Commodity trading involves risk and is not for everyone.

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Morning Corner 2.8.11

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