AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection.

Creditcane™: Screw the equity market. I'm having more fun with the bond market.

SPX
Hammer day (but a lower close hammer would be preferable). Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. No test of 0.0% retrace. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1307.59). QE2infinity. JBTFD…



DXY
Bullish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above the 14.6% retrace (77.54). Back above SMA(21). Daily 3LB reversal up (reversal is 77.07).



VIX
Bearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still below all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 17.30). Still out of the "no fear" zone. Currently has a monthly 3LB reversal.



GOLD
Spinning top day. Midpoint above EMA(10). 0.0% retrace holding. Held above SMA(21). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1333.70). Must have the precious.



EURUSD
Bearish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Held above 1.3506 (the 50% retrace). Still above all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1.3813).



JNK
Inverted hammer day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. Still below its 50% retrace (40.47). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 40.63).




10YR YIELD
Bullish short day. No test of 0.0% retrace at 37.44. Still above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 35.20). The Bernank is still having a sleepless week.



CRB
Spinning top day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Above all SMA's. No test of 0.0% retrace. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 335.44).




XLF
Bullish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. No test of 0.0% retrace. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 16.51).




TLT
Bearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still below all SMA's. Way below lower trend line. New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 89.72). Currently has a monthly 3LB reversal (down).



EEM
Spinning top day (finally escaped body of 2/1/11 candle). Midpoint below EMA(10). Below all SMA's except the SMA(144). Barely held its 38.2% retrace (45.06). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 46.76).



30YR YIELD
Bullish long day. Above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 46.62).

LEFTBACK'S BOND REPORT

The Bond Report 2.10.11

Risk was on a bit, but mainly it was a shellacking at the long end. Traders will continue to do this until there is some resolution of the debt ceiling issue or somebody else's bond market becomes more amusing to fuck with. Luckily Ireland and Portugal are out there.

Spreads are widening in muni land between the high and lower quality issues. You get the feeling we are in the "second inning" on this. Remember that, from the sub-prime crisis. In the 2nd inning, it was "contained". Mortgages are steady, the BERNANK will have that on his radar for sure. Take a look at TIPS, they are offering as much protection to investors as a rice paper condom.

Corpies: LQD -0.49%; AGG -0.29%; JNK 0.12%; HYG 0.11%
Govies: TLT -1.15%; IEI -0.22%; TIP -0.62%
Munis: IQI -0.76%; MUB 0.41%
Mortgages: MBB -0.09%
Specialty: ZROZ -1.85%; TBT 2.00%

We did nothing, we are riding our short of EEM. We are watching ZROZ and will eventually start a position. Second mouse.... ! We also have to set up a new portfolio for hedging FI and will probably do that Monday.
It is going to be a tough grind for a while in bonds until the economy shows signs of slowing down, which it will.