TRADERS ANONYMOUS: Morning Corner 2.11.11

Morning Corner 2.11.11

SUGAR (weekly info)
-no change (above mid)
trend=no
direction=up (2 bars)
high= 33.98
rev= 26.15; mid= 30.07

The sweet stuff is trying to show weakness but is still holding above its weekly 3LB mid. The monthly 3LB is trending up. Sooner or later the higher price will make its way through to finished goods.

EGPT (weekly info)
-no change (below mid)
trend=no
direction=down (2 bars)
low= 16.22
rev= 20.42; mid= 18.51

Mubarak offered to step down…in September. That's not exactly bullish. So this ETF will reflect reality soon enough. Plus the Egyptian Bourse isn't even open.

To free markets that are not manipulated we "Miss You"

TLT

229 comments:

«Oldest ‹Older 1 – 200 of 229 Newer› Newest»

Bruce in Tennessee said...: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-11/zapatero-s-epiphany-on-deficit-cuts-odds-of-spain-bailout-euro-credit.html

Zapatero’s ‘Epiphany’ Cuts Chances of Spain Bailout: Euro Credit

"Zapatero, a Socialist who said in 2005 he slept with his union card by his bed and pledged to keep increasing pensions, slashed public wages by 5 percent last year, froze pensions, reduced firing costs and made it easier for companies to opt out of wage-bargaining deals. After facing down the first general strike in eight years in September, he followed those measures with an increase to the retirement age even as the social security system remains in surplus."

" Regional and local elections are scheduled for May and a general election is due by March 2012. Zapatero told Parliament in July he would restore Spain’s economy “whatever it costs and whatever it costs me.” That price may be his political future; polls indicate Spaniards expect Deputy Prime Minister Alfredo Perez Rubalcaba to replace Zapatero as head of the Socialists’ for the 2012 vote."; February 11, 2011 at 7:40 AM
Anonymous said...: There's no market manipulation.

It's all just an aggregation of individuals who are pricing in various data points and using their Ameritrade accounts to fire off the trade when critical levels are met.; February 11, 2011 at 7:40 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-11/wheat-s-surge-may-fuel-gains-in-rice-prices-irri-s-robert-zeigler-says.html

Wheat’s Rally to Fuel Gains in Rice, Zeigler Predicts

"A surge in rice may contribute to faster inflation across Asia even as policy makers ramp up interest rates to contain surging consumer prices. The People’s Bank of China raised rates this week for the third time in four months. Central banks in India, Indonesia and Thailand have also tightened.

$10 Wheat Call
Blackstone Group LP’s Byron Wien is among strategists who have forecast a surge in farm-commodity prices in 2011. Wien predicted last month wheat may jump to $10 a bushel this year as “rising standards of living in the developing world seriously increase the demand for agricultural commodities.” Michael Lewis, global head of commodities research at Deutsche Bank AG, said in November that agricultural commodities may extend gains.

About 42 percent of the area planted with wheat in China’s eight major producing provinces has been hurt by the dry spell, according to Minister of Agriculture Han Changfu. The drought- hit central and eastern regions may get some snow or rain in the next three days, the nation’s weather office said today.

Global wheat harvests may trail demand for a second year, spurring hoarding, Abdolreza Abbassian, a senior economist at the Food and Agriculture Organization, said this week. China’s drought may cut the chance of rebuilding stockpiles, he said."; February 11, 2011 at 7:46 AM
Anonymous said...: whatever it costs and whatever it costs me.” That price may be his political future; polls indicate Spaniards expect Deputy Prime Minister Alfredo Perez Rubalcaba to replace Zapatero as head of the Socialists’ for the 2012 vote."

moral of the story- people elect those who tell them what they want to hear-

reality is such a downer (just ask Carter when he leveled with the American people in 1979- his "Crisis of Confidence" speech went down as the worst Presidential speech of all time); February 11, 2011 at 7:52 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: ..Socialists behaving like capitalists, and capitalists behaving like burned-out socialists. My gripe with social security is that the old folks I see, salt of the earth types, don't give a dern about rent costs and other assorted and sundry items that go into the calculation of inflation. Once they retire they are interesting in keeping warm and eating. The government chooses the factors they wish to use,all here know that, and living inflation goes up while government-selected inflation remains "tame"..

..POS's...; February 11, 2011 at 7:52 AM
Anonymous said...: now? that dude is calling for $10 Wheat?

ooo, Bold, flippin' Wheat is knocking on 9's Door, as we speak..

http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=ZW

one 'false move', we could get $14 Wheat..
~~

http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=CT&p=d1

the Soft Stuff ~190

http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=ZR&p=d1

Rough Rice over ~16.

AAIP; February 11, 2011 at 7:57 AM
Anonymous said...: Bruce,

right, wrong, or indifferent, those 'salt of the Earth'-types bought into the greatest Lie ever sold..

sometimes, Payback, or getting paid back, by Liars, cab be a ***** ...

ibid.; February 11, 2011 at 8:00 AM
Randon Internet Spellchecker said...: cab=can; February 11, 2011 at 8:03 AM
Anonymous said...: US Dollar
78.575
+0.325 +0.42%

RTTNews) - The dollar rallied versus other major currencies on Friday, after Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak shocked most observers by refusing to vacate office despite weeks of civil unrest centered in Cairo.

Protesters have been demanding that the longtime leader step down immediately, but Mubarak says he will remain in power until his term is up in September.

While the nation's army is now backing the president, a peaceful solution is now in question, giving the safe haven dollar a measure of support.

The dollar rose to a weekly high of $1.3507 before hitting technical resistance against the euro. With the advance, the buck was near its highest since mid-January.

Gains were more pronounced against the sterling, with the dollar improving to a 2-week high of $1.5962, compared to $1.61 last night. Traders shrugged off further evidence of inflationary pressures in the U.K.

Driven by higher fuel prices, U.K. output price inflation for all manufactured products rose to 4.8% from a downwardly revised 4.1% in December, data published by the Office for National Statistics revealed Friday.

Earlier this week, the Bank of England kept interest rates at 0.5 percent despite concerns about rising prices.

The dollar continued to gain on the yen this morning, rising to
Y83.65 -- its highest since before Christmas....
http://news.ino.com/headlines/?newsid=21120110394; February 11, 2011 at 8:06 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2011/02/11/saudis-fault-obama-egyptian-crisis/

Saudis Fault Obama on Egyptian Crisis

..Obama apparently told them that his experience as a community organizer would allow him to quell the unrest. "After all, Egypt is sorta like a really big community" he is said to have said...

..Inexperience will continue to plague this guy...JMO; February 11, 2011 at 8:10 AM
bob said...: EURUSD wound extremely tight right now, look at the bid/ask volumes if you can, 40 to 2; February 11, 2011 at 8:21 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: http://www.bloomberg.com/video/66553896/

Weinberg Says Europe Debt Crisis `Bomb Ready to Go Off'; February 11, 2011 at 8:31 AM
Anonymous said...: from CNBC-

"investors want unemployment to stay at elevated levels so that the Federal Reserve stays accommodative."

jobs . . .silly anyway . . . why don't the unemployed just start their own companies-

shiftless losers apparently; February 11, 2011 at 8:55 AM
Anonymous said...: ahab,

to your point, how many of those peep could, you know, actually, Brew Beer/Make Soap/tend an Apiary/Bake Bread, etc..

some of those peep, are, actually, quite, shiftless..

one can hear, frequently (at least, 'round these parts), some gaggle of Dudes, at the Watering Hole, bemoaning their "getting fired/joblessness/"can't find work""...then, almost, in the next beat, laughing & remarking about 'receiving Unemployment'...

anyway, if it were as easy as B&W..

AAIP; February 11, 2011 at 9:06 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: Ahab-

CNBC has a number of goofy headlines today..Fannie Freddie model "dead" but we are going to support them anyway???

Usually when things are dead you move on..new ideas...I think other than spending this administration-like many of the republican administrations to be fair- have little in the way of out of the box thinking..; February 11, 2011 at 9:09 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: Obama Administration: Fannie, Freddie Model 'Dead'

The Obama administration declared the public-private housing finance model in place for the past four decades was dead but pledged to continue backing Fannie Mae's and Freddie Mac's obligations.

...Weekend at Bernie's???????.....; February 11, 2011 at 9:11 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: Wonder where FNMA will close today? There is another headline about China getting rid of FNMA debt obligations today too, but I can't find it now...; February 11, 2011 at 9:16 AM
Anonymous said...: Bruce-

I think they meant to say "mostly" dead

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xbE8E1ez97M

Hoffer-

nothing wrong w/ folks being entrepreneurial . . .

but not everyone can be self employed (unless we went back to the days when most folks were farmers); February 11, 2011 at 9:22 AM
karen said...: good morning! any bets on how quickly the indices go green? crude is spinning some heads this morning.. yay!; February 11, 2011 at 9:28 AM
A fixed income analyst to be named later said...: Fannie + Freddie = "Bad Bank", like NAMBA in Ireland.

The "EM outflows" are music to my ears. Sell 'em JOHN E...
We want to be out of our massive short EEM trade and go home.

EEM target 44.00 !!; February 11, 2011 at 9:36 AM
Anonymous said...: It will be interesting if they make TBTF take back mortgages that were sold to Fan/Fred but were clearly fraudulent.; February 11, 2011 at 9:37 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Kraft-says-more-price-apf-2318617575.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=5&asset=&ccode=

Kraft says more price increases ahead

...No cheese on your cat food, old farts!; February 11, 2011 at 9:38 AM
Anonymous said...: DF down to 9.50, we sold this week at 10.54.
Don't tell us we are good or anything like that....; February 11, 2011 at 9:38 AM
Anonymous said...: Is that you TEPPER?; February 11, 2011 at 9:38 AM
Anonymous said...: Bruce HEARTS Tepper.; February 11, 2011 at 9:39 AM
karen said...: my friend told me yesterday that he felt the dow would hold because it was the third year in the presidential cycle!!

I think i will print this article for him since he doesn't do internet..

http://www.businessinsider.com/next-year-third-year-of-presidential-cycle-2010-12; February 11, 2011 at 9:41 AM
SEC guy said...: Careful that might be insider information. Like if you said, dude, bonds could go down, we could do you for trading on that.; February 11, 2011 at 9:50 AM
karen said...: Anon @ 9:38.. you do it for us.; February 11, 2011 at 9:50 AM
karen said...: BBC Business
More Irish banks get junk rating http://bbc.in/eaxfFL; February 11, 2011 at 9:55 AM
CV said...: @AAIP (7:57)

"one 'false move', we could get $14 Wheat.."

---

But... But... "you can't eat WHEAT"! - ROR; February 11, 2011 at 9:56 AM
CV said...: "Rough Rice over ~16."

Is ROUGH RICE, officially, that plastic rice they're now making? Please inform...; February 11, 2011 at 9:57 AM
Anonymous said...: Irish election approaching, problems will increase for irish banks, and the British and German banks who love their bonds !!

Haircut, sir?; February 11, 2011 at 9:57 AM
CV said...: @Bruce (8:10)

http://debka.com/article/20650/; February 11, 2011 at 9:59 AM
Anonymous said...: cv--

btw, what means "ROR" ?; February 11, 2011 at 9:59 AM
CV said...: @karen

"my friend told me yesterday that he felt the dow would hold because it was the third year in the presidential cycle"

---

That would naturally assume that Obama, is, in fact, a "President"...; February 11, 2011 at 10:00 AM
Anonymous said...: yes, that 'Plastic Rice'-story was amazing..

for a different slice, like that
http://search.yippy.com/search?input-form=clusty-simple&v%3Asources=webplus&v%3Aproject=clusty&query=glycerin+being+fed+to+pigs+in+test

ScienceDaily (Jan. 20, 2011) — An increased interest in biofuel production and a growing need to find cost-effective livestock feedstuff alternatives has led University of Illinois researchers to further evaluate the use of glycerin in swine diets.
This study, led by U of I graduate research assistant Omarh Mendoza, was published in the Journal of Animal Science and reports that swine diets may include up to 15 percent glycerin and achieve similar performance to a conventional corn:soybean diet.

"Glycerin is not a new product, but little is known about its role as a feed ingredient for swine," said Michael Ellis, U of I professor in the Department of Animal Sciences. "Previous studies have shown variable results."

Glycerin is a major co-product of biodiesel production. This resulting liquid energy source is sweet and palatable, Ellis said. While it's more commonly used by humans, it has the potential for greater inclusion in livestock diets...
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2011/01/110119182818.htm; February 11, 2011 at 10:02 AM
karen said...: http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2011/02/video-doug-kass-barry-ritholtz-and-jim.html; February 11, 2011 at 10:04 AM
chinaman said...: raff out roud; February 11, 2011 at 10:05 AM
karen said...: EEM.. went sub 44 and now at 45.12..; February 11, 2011 at 10:06 AM
CV said...: @ahab

"investors want unemployment to stay at elevated levels so that the Federal Reserve stays accommodative."

---

TRADERS want THE FEDERAL RESERVE to stay accomodative so they can scalp more off of the leverage they get on FUTURES...

There... fixed it...

(I'm guessing it's easier for the DOW to move 50 points at 12,000 than it is when the DOW is 6,000)...

But I'm not that smart, so don't hold me to that calculation... I'll go back to counting my seed packets now...; February 11, 2011 at 10:06 AM
AmenRa said...: karen

Back to almost green in under an hour. Sheesh.; February 11, 2011 at 10:07 AM
CV said...: @AAIP

I'm sure somebody is ALREADY experimenting with feeding PLASTIC CORN to livestock to see what happens...

Or... if you think what CV says is absurd...

Consider the news stories you hear, then consider they're probably only the tip of the iceBERGsurdity...; February 11, 2011 at 10:08 AM
CV said...: @Amen

"Back to almost green in under an hour"

That was CV JBingTFD...; February 11, 2011 at 10:09 AM
Anonymous said...: Ra-

"almost green"

is that like "mostly dead"?; February 11, 2011 at 10:10 AM
karen said...: you cannot believe LULU! look at that chart..; February 11, 2011 at 10:11 AM
karen said...: this is interesting: This morning, Pimco's Mohamed El-Erian told CNBC that "the lack of a flight to the US dollar and Treasurys during the crisis in Egypt is a warning sign that investors are moving away from traditional American safety plays.

http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2011/2/11/wheres-the-flight-to-safety.html; February 11, 2011 at 10:14 AM
AmenRa said...: ahab

In these markets there are no "mostly dead" trades. JBTFD will bring a comatose stock back to life.

ROR; February 11, 2011 at 10:14 AM
Anonymous said...: I'm coo coo for LULU

that and cocoa puffs

also- a new bull market?

http://finance.yahoo.com/banking-budgeting/article/112102/time-to-call-this-a-full-fledged-bull-market;_ylt=; February 11, 2011 at 10:14 AM
CV said...: @ahab (10:10)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=grbSQ6O6kbs; February 11, 2011 at 10:15 AM
karen said...: ahab.. that is nucking futs!!!; February 11, 2011 at 10:16 AM
karen said...: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-11/goldman-sachs-former-chief-whitehead-calls-nyse-s-planned-sale-an-insult-.html; February 11, 2011 at 10:18 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: Probably out for the weekend...new bubba or bubbette on the way..

Good luck stock mavens! And those who have been fixed...; February 11, 2011 at 10:21 AM
CV said...: @karen

It's a bunch of individual investors...

They appear to be 'bullish'... The MARKET is a discounting mechanism you know... It's looking 6 months ahead...; February 11, 2011 at 10:21 AM
Anonymous said...: CV-

classic Monty Python . . .I guess he was only "mostly" dead- ROR; February 11, 2011 at 10:21 AM
karen said...: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-11/jpmorgan-chief-dimon-calls-fannie-freddie-biggest-disasters-of-all-time-.html; February 11, 2011 at 10:21 AM
CV said...: @Bruce

Let's just hope it's not a BUBB-LE; February 11, 2011 at 10:22 AM
karen said...: Exciting news, Bruce! This will be number 2?; February 11, 2011 at 10:22 AM
AmenRa said...: CV

Too long. It only looks 3 months ahead. That's how long it takes to make it to the next earnings season.; February 11, 2011 at 10:23 AM
chinaman said...: raff out roud; February 11, 2011 at 10:23 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: Number 6. (Our family likes,er, you know...)

FNMA down another 14%! DIE you hussy!; February 11, 2011 at 10:23 AM
Fannie & Freddie said...: JPM & Dimon are the biggest disasters of all time...

There... we're even...; February 11, 2011 at 10:23 AM
Anonymous said...: 1.9401 +0.0643 (+3.43%)

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYMEX_TT.H11.E

Algodon nearly ~2 .; February 11, 2011 at 10:27 AM
Jennifer said...: TLT caught a bid.; February 11, 2011 at 10:28 AM
CV said...: @Amen Ra (10:23)

Well the last I heard it only "looked forward" for 22 seconds...

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2011/01/guest-post-michael-hudson-average-stock-held-for-22-seconds-and-average-foreign-currency-position-held-for-30-seconds.html

CV... The average individual who makes thoughtful inWestment decisions, takes 21 of those seconds to formulate a plan... The last second is me "firing off the trade"...; February 11, 2011 at 10:29 AM
Anonymous said...: http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=GRM&ty=c&ta=1&p=d

like clockwork, off the 20sma..

now, @17.54; February 11, 2011 at 10:32 AM
Matthew 21:12 said...: Matthew 21:12; February 11, 2011 at 10:32 AM
Anonymous said...: TLT caught a bid.

let's see for how long-

fickle lately; February 11, 2011 at 10:32 AM
Anonymous said...: http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=TLT&ty=c&ta=1&p=d

TLT N. of ~89, should be ok..; February 11, 2011 at 10:33 AM
Jennifer said...: Mark -- I've been following GRM too ever since you pointed it out, nice and easy trading.; February 11, 2011 at 10:35 AM
CV said...: CV's "look" on TLT...

new chart in thread; February 11, 2011 at 10:51 AM
Anonymous said...: J-

not too often they come 'textbook' like that one did..

first came to attention by INO.com 'Etreme Stocks' ..

like here:
Extreme Stocks
Symbol Last Change %
CAMBREX 6.195 +1.145 +20.99
STAMPS.COM 14.71 +1.95 +14.89
PANERA BREAD 114.1784 +14.4684 +14.57
EXPEDIA 21.32 -4.37 -16.66
NOKIA (AB) 9.49 -1.45 -13.25
NOKIA ADR 9.43 -1.45 -12.88
http://www.ino.com/

Panera!, that's amazing, must be in the same ETF as LULU ..

AAIP; February 11, 2011 at 10:51 AM
Jennifer said...: Some hedge fund guy on CNBC just told Herb G that NFLX has serious accounting irregularities and he thinks its fair value is more like $70/share. :-); February 11, 2011 at 10:56 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=FNMA.OB&ql=0

Well, FNMA didn't die long today...I think we'll rename it the Federal Lazarus Mortgage Association...; February 11, 2011 at 10:59 AM
A fixed income analyst to be named later said...: Nice chart on TLT. The interesting and perhaps most appropriate comparison would be JGBs before and after the onset of ZIRP. My best guess is that the ceiling for yields was a great deal lower after ZIRP.

Remember, the FED cannot hike while they are still in a period of QE ! It would make no sense to do this. Early termination of the QE would be as effective as a hike. Neither is going to happen. They are simply filling up the bathtub with the money that is leaking away into the cesspool left by the housing debacle.; February 11, 2011 at 11:02 AM
A fixed income analyst to be named later said...: We are out of our EM short. 8% is a good gain. We think that trade will keep on giving but it is over for now.

No news Monday ahead, so DGDF, MGUF and Party On, Garth!

POMO POMO POMO !!!; February 11, 2011 at 11:04 AM
I-Man said...: Nice trade, LB.; February 11, 2011 at 11:05 AM
A fixed income analyst to be named later said...: The trade to take home for the weekend is probably going to be TBT.

A bit of FTQ buying here on Egypt etc.. and the Friday FTQ trade usually reverses on Mondays. We now have a large FI position that we need to hedge. So we are back to the old game of staying long and hedging into bond-negative events (hint: next week's PPI).; February 11, 2011 at 11:07 AM
Anonymous said...: Thanks, I. We should have shut up shop at 9.45, but there you go.
We went LARGE on this one, so it made for a good week.; February 11, 2011 at 11:08 AM
karen said...: Jennifer.. i heard about that! but i've been saying that myself for awhile now : ); February 11, 2011 at 11:10 AM
Anonymous said...: he thinks its fair value is more like $70/share.

pffftt . . .fair value . . .as if that means anything

CV-

looks like TLT has been down in the 80 range in the past- don't see that happening? And the huge spike in 2009- how does that fit in?

just trying to understand; February 11, 2011 at 11:12 AM
Jennifer said...: Wow...can you say blow off top? Of course, this is much better than the Egyptian military deciding to open fire on their own people.; February 11, 2011 at 11:12 AM
Jennifer said...: So...if Neely drops this count, what's the alternative? Up until QE2 runs out?; February 11, 2011 at 11:14 AM
A fixed income analyst to be named later said...: Ahab

On TLT. Think about mortgages. 6% kills sales for the WHOLE YEAR.
Think about it. It is not going to happen.

You know they can and will end QE2 early and dump stocks.
They will not let the long end get away. If they do it is all over.; February 11, 2011 at 11:19 AM
A fixed income analyst to be named later said...: the huge spike in 2009-

That was the banks loading up with Tier 1 capital into the end of '08.
After that FASB changed accounting rules. We had a 2% 10y there.; February 11, 2011 at 11:20 AM
18 said...: sheesh...

18's hourly, daily and weekly signals are all positive-up. During this week I noticed the 18 hourly was positive down and went into negative for a bit, just a bit though.

To go along with the "cyclical bull" idea, 18's major numbers are... posted last week I believe. Later when I have more time... I'll post the numbers between these Major numbers.

1800
1638
1537
1375
1112; February 11, 2011 at 11:22 AM
Anonymous said...: fixxy-

(that cracks me up hoffer!)

no- I get what you're saying but I always wonder, what if . . .what if it gets away from them . . .

I don't see this as a well oiled machine

fwiw- I have some TLT- a bit upside down at the moment; February 11, 2011 at 11:24 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: Lefty:

The PPI is going to start making its little winding way through the CPI too...grain-cows-cheese-Kraft-Kroger-you...and so forth..; February 11, 2011 at 11:24 AM
Anonymous said...: "the huge spike in 2009- That was the banks loading up with Tier 1 capital"

LB- I was trying to fit that spike into the H&S pattern CV was referring to in his chart-

TA is not my specialty by any means; February 11, 2011 at 11:26 AM
Anonymous said...: CROWD ROARS APPROVAL AS MUBARAK STEPS DOWN; February 11, 2011 at 11:31 AM
Anonymous said...: I get what you're saying but I always wonder, what if . . .

here, too..

what is on 'the other side'?

Rates go up, RRE/CRE values Down, resets, still, happen, peep cannot refi..

more peep beholden to the Great HAMP/FHA/FDIC workout/tennant-ship, while waiting in line, praying their SNAP/EBT cards are good for more than Solyent Green??

it'd be Grim..

AAIP; February 11, 2011 at 11:32 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The Federal Reserve Bank of New York bought $7.375 billion in Treasury debt on Friday, part of the Fed's second round of quantitative easing, and includes purchases made under a previous program to reinvest cash from its maturing mortgage-related holdings back into Treasurys. Dealers offered the central bank $24.073 billion in debt maturing from 2016 to 2018. Since the program began in August, the Fed had bought $397 billion through Wednesday, according to Morgan Stanley. After the buyback, and reports that Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak has resigned, Treasury prices stayed higher. Yields on 10-year notes , which move inversely to prices, fell 8 basis points to 3.62%.; February 11, 2011 at 11:36 AM
A fixed income analyst to be named later said...: "The PPI is going to start making its little winding way through the CPI too...grain-cows-cheese-Kraft-Kroger-you...and so forth.."

Indeed. This is already almost 100% priced into the bond markets which are infinitely more efficient than the one for NFLX and pets.com b/c of the inherently greater transparency of the macro universe.

Look at crude. It is flattening out now. Everyone knows we can't handle $100 oil, and once the weather warms up there will be a big build and energy will sell off.

BUCKY has got up off his death bed and soon we will be looking at EuroTrash instead of Egypt again. That means that by April, PPI will be falling again from its peak, although the CPI bump may be longer lived.
The next round of EM sell offs will be a big one, and then commodities will be next. This round of the big FLATION is already over.

Think second derivative, Bruce. The spike in commodities is over, and the bond market will begin to reflect that soon.

Short term, I will be hedging b/c that PPI could be a screamer.; February 11, 2011 at 11:36 AM
karen said...: This may be the bigger story on the day: BBC Business
Weber to quit as German bank boss http://bbc.in/f3i6CW; February 11, 2011 at 11:37 AM
spoonman said...: FXI seems to be respecting the 200 day, in which case it doesn't have a whole lot more room to move up...; February 11, 2011 at 11:40 AM
Anonymous said...: EMs may have a relief rally. We all enjoy occasional relief, especially hedgies or more likely dumb real money guys who were long EMs and need to unwind. Give em a couple of days for an exit rally.

China is lousy with fraud and everyone knows it. This house of cards will fall soon enough.

Amazing scenes. The BEN BERNANK has brought down a dictator !!; February 11, 2011 at 11:44 AM
karen said...: Gross: It’s interesting how the dollar hasn’t benefited much if at all from Egypt’s unrest. Usually money moves to a safe haven in a crisis.

(anyone attempting to apply logic or fundamentals to this market are clueless! LOL); February 11, 2011 at 11:44 AM
CV said...: @ahab (11:12)

I really don't have an answer TLT...

I'm just presenting a picture, longer term, that illustrates despite the 88-89 level having been a bounce level recently (since 2008)...

A decade long look says that 84, or 80 might not be out of the question...

---

Now let me be silly and ADD a few things to that argument...

- I hear talk about "Neely" dropping counts...
- We're getting to the PHASE point where QE2 must morph in to QE3... (or "most" think the result will be that equities will tank)...

It gets me to thinking "damn the torpedoes & RISK ON" (come hell or high water)...

Now hear me out further...

The only 'logical' way that TLT sees 84 or 80 is if:

- the RECOVERYLESS RECOVERY is for real; OR
- "Monetization" remains in full effect

But we all know, and have been informed that there IS NO MONETIZATION and that BERNANKE or THE FED have nothing to do with markets...

It's just an aggregate of individual traders...

So I'm supposing that the recovery is for real...

Right? Right?; February 11, 2011 at 11:45 AM
CV said...: I should be more specific and say...

-86.60ish (38.2% level, as illustrated)
-84.40ish (the low candle on first weekly chart gap)

Notwithstanding... To CV... It's kind of EERIE, that the fibo relationships from the May '04 low to the June '05 wave have the following relations...

- 11/'08 GAP at 161.8% of that band (also, 8/10 wave peak)

- 12/08 peak being 261.8% of that band

Just saying... (I'll go back to "starting" my peppers now and leave the trading to you guys); February 11, 2011 at 11:53 AM
Anonymous said...: CV-

following on your thought, it amazes me that Bernanke and others at the Fed say (but maybe not believe) that they have nothing to do with commodity inflation-

. . .and then I wonder- maybe they are in fact just stupid; February 11, 2011 at 11:53 AM
Anonymous said...: one reason they're looking for a dumping ground for the Glycerin..

OTTAWA, ONTARIO, CANADA — The Canadian Renewable Fuels Association (CRFA) lauded on Feb. 10 the announcement of a national 2% biodiesel mandate in Canada as good news for consumers, farmers and energy diversity in Canada.

"This is a milestone day for homegrown renewable biodiesel in Canada. Biodiesel is a better way to drive and an innovative way to fuel our economy," said Gordon Quaiattini, CRFA president in reacting to the federal government's announcement of a 2% Renewable Fuels Standard for biodiesel. "Biodiesel is a cleaner alternative to conventional diesel. It will help moderate price by adding to our fuel supply, create new jobs, and benefit farmers and drivers alike."

Biodiesel contains no petroleum and can be made from a variety of renewable raw materials, or feedstocks, including pure seed oils, animal fats and recycled cooking oils. It performs comparably to petroleum diesel in terms of fuel economy, horsepower and torque. Biodiesel is safe to use in all diesel vehicles, and also can be used as heating oil and in a variety of other applications, including marine transportation, electrical generation, farming equipment and mining operations.

CRFA noted that biodiesel is 10 times less toxic than table salt and is as biodegradable as sugar. Independent studies have shown that Canadian-produced biodiesel generates between 85% and 99% less greenhouse gases, depending on feedstock, compared to conventional diesel fuel...
http://www.biofuelsbusiness.com; February 11, 2011 at 12:04 PM
Anonymous said...: http://www.biofuelsbusiness.com/news/biodiesel.asp

maybe, a better link

AAIP; February 11, 2011 at 12:05 PM
karen said...: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/02/post-financial-crisis-retracement/; February 11, 2011 at 12:06 PM
Anonymous said...: Alcohol causes nearly 4 percent of deaths worldwide, more than AIDS, tuberculosis or violence, the World Health Organization warned on Friday.

would you rather have them die of boredom?

now that's the kind of convoluted straight forward logic I'm talking about; February 11, 2011 at 12:09 PM
CV said...: @ahab

I'm going to UNDERLINE that "ben22" is the one who is correct...

This is a DEFLATIONARY setup... "Money is debt" and the creation of debt (on an individual basis) is in the process of being curtailed...

My argument is that IN LIEU of individual debt being created, SOVERIGN NATIONS are creating debt on an unprecedented scale (in the name of their citizens - you know - to "help them out and all")... Eventually the same governments will (or at least HOPE) to use the POWER OF TAXATION to get all those monies back...

You all call that a MARKet... I call it a RACKet...

In the process... The ability to raise debt ceilings on what they call a $14 trillion dollar "ECONOMY" creates an "nth" more potent capacity to CREATE DEBT than an aggregation of individual human citizens could ever manage on their own, or even in their wildest dreams...

The debt is treated as MONEY, and the MONEY flows to assets... In an "incredulous" world, naturally the only thing "CREDIBLE" is basic things like food & water...

So to the AVERAGE person... that's "INFLATION"...

Kind of ironic, huh?; February 11, 2011 at 12:10 PM
CV said...: @AAIP (12:05)

So does that mean if we all stop eating McDonald's french fries, we're f***ed?...

It also might mean that FLOTUS is a "traitor", because these things (oils) that produce the best biodiesel, would be banned...

I keep trying to give LB my "recipe" for scavenging the waste dumps of the fast food restaurants of Gotham to make a batch of biodiesel and get off the island, but he seems to like the pizza joints...; February 11, 2011 at 12:14 PM
A fixed income analyst to be named later said...: No long end POMO until Feb 23. Looks like hedges will be on.

CV. No QE3 until the muni market blows sky high and we have another TEOTWAWKI moment. This will be a replay of Europe, where they let the banks short the piss out of each country's govies, then they give the hand signal and the banks buy back the govies cheap just before the ECB announces the rescue.

Look for some kind of muni shorting mechanisms to be employed, GO bonds to reach astonishingly high yields, and then QE3 will save the day. There will be great deals when we get there much like what happened with MBS.

They will want to let QE2 play out first.

Ahab, BB is desperate to create some inflation to counter the actions of the AUSTERILIZERS who were just elected. Large sections of the US economy are still operating under deflationary conditions.; February 11, 2011 at 12:14 PM
Anonymous said...: I could live on pizza. OK, I do.; February 11, 2011 at 12:14 PM
CV said...: @ahab

"Alcohol causes nearly 4 percent of deaths worldwide, more than AIDS, tuberculosis or violence"

---

During the DARK AGES... Practically the ONLY thing people drank was alcohol because the water was polluted from cities dumping their waste into rivers...

You could take the same river water, polluted with human waste, and use it to make beer, which killed all the harmful bacteria...

So - all things considered...

Since the DARK AGES... If the choice was "drink water" and risk dying of the "Bubonic Plague", or drinking beer - what would you choose?; February 11, 2011 at 12:18 PM
Jennifer said...: Neely sticking w/ his count. Interesting.; February 11, 2011 at 12:19 PM
Anonymous said...: MMMMMM
Beeeeerrrrrr

foghorn; February 11, 2011 at 12:21 PM
Jennifer said...: Mmmmm....scorpion bowls.; February 11, 2011 at 12:22 PM
CV said...: "No QE3 until the muni market blows sky high"

But that would never happen because CONgress wants to say that Meredith Whitney is a witch...

& I believe them... because... because... "She turned me into a NEWT"...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GpMjakNhZTc; February 11, 2011 at 12:22 PM
Anonymous said...: And beef

Uh, what's that?

U.S. Cattle Herd Drops 1.4% to Lowest Since 1958 After Beef Prices Surge

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-28/u-s-cattle-herd-drops-1-4-to-lowest-since-1958-after-beef-prices-surge.html

foghorn; February 11, 2011 at 12:24 PM
CV said...: "We'll build a bridge out of her!"; February 11, 2011 at 12:24 PM
karen said...: New blog post: Switzerland freezes Mubarak assets http://www.forexlive.com/166404/all/switzerland-freezes-mubarak-assets; February 11, 2011 at 12:25 PM
Anonymous said...: gotta roll . . .all have a most wicked day- witches and newts alike; February 11, 2011 at 12:26 PM
Otis the town drunk said...: ""Since the DARK AGES... If the choice was "drink water" and risk dying of the "Bubonic Plague", or drinking beer - what would you choose?""

I'll d-d-drink [hic-cup] to thathbb!!; February 11, 2011 at 12:27 PM
Anonymous said...: @Karen
COOL; February 11, 2011 at 12:28 PM
CV said...: "Large sections of the US economy are still operating under deflationary conditions."

---

The only PRICE DEFLATION (hitherto "price" = the exchange rate that people exchange FRN's for at a common marketplace in the procurement of everyday items - NOT the "science of economics" definition of such) is in stuff that people don't really need...

Which, in of itself is a SKETCHY definition because most Americans THINK they "need" a lot more than they actually do...; February 11, 2011 at 12:32 PM
Anonymous said...: Foghorn,

how do you like the sound of ~2/lb. on Feeders?

http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=FC

AAIP; February 11, 2011 at 12:32 PM
Anonymous said...: New blog post: Switzerland freezes Mubarak assets

That's nothing.
The weather has frozen my assets every day this week.; February 11, 2011 at 12:32 PM
CV said...: "Switzerland freezes Mubarak assets"

So THAT'S where he stored all the gold...

Well - at least one mystery solved today..; February 11, 2011 at 12:33 PM
Anonymous said...: 2 per Lb
Sounds pretty good
as long as corn doesn't go to 3.

foghorn; February 11, 2011 at 12:36 PM
A fixed income analyst to be named later said...: CV

Not really true. It's not that simple.

Prices in grocery stores in poor neighborhoods and dead end towns are very low and people are loading up on special sales. You can only charge what the market will bear. I couldn't tell you about where the über-people shop, b/c I don't shop where lloyd does.

It's like Marky and I have talked about: Trifurcation. 0% inflation at the bottom, 2-5% for the middle class and who cares for Blankfiend...; February 11, 2011 at 12:36 PM
CV said...: @AAIP

16 pounds of grain to feed 1 pound of meat...

TILAPIA BITCHEZ!; February 11, 2011 at 12:39 PM
A fixed income analyst to be named later said...: We need to keep in mind this:

Aggregate DEMAND remains low.
Wage inflation is NON-EXISTENT.

This limits inflation. Demand destruction and a stable dollar.
That's how all these little episodes will end.

Japan had several of these inflation escapades.
All of them ended the same way, CLAVADISTA de NIKKEI.; February 11, 2011 at 12:39 PM
Anonymous said...: I've seen the Whole Foods in San Rafael CA is always packed... rather pricey items but at closing time, peeps are still running up to the door. The Safeway parking lot down the street is 30% full, and some of that might be for the stores nearby... just saying; February 11, 2011 at 12:41 PM
CV said...: "Prices in grocery stores in poor neighborhoods and dead end towns are very low and people are loading up on special sales"

---

Is that downtown Cairo or Chungking?

or are you talking about your local M-A-A-R-S store serving people on SNAP...

Better play the scenario out a few months farther in advance...; February 11, 2011 at 12:41 PM
Anonymous said...: More from the local rags about the
BossHogg Bowl

"....But as the thousands of visitors left our towns in the wake of last Sunday's ultimate NFL game, they packed this perception: Everything is bigger in Texas. Even Super Bowl disasters...."

http://www.dallasobserver.com/2011-02-10/news/an-exciting-super-bowl-game-couldn-t-rescue-north-texas-from-a-disastrous-super-bowl-week/

foghorn; February 11, 2011 at 12:44 PM
CV said...: @AAIP

"there are 56 lbs of Corn in a Bushel, no?

http://www.alpharubicon.com/primitive/bushelssitkastan.htm

http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=ZC

Corn, now, $~7/bu."

---

Hey though... We ought no bother feeding livestock with that... Better to CULL the herds and keep meat prices high...

A better use for all that corn would be to make ETHANOL and drive an SUV about a city block...

AL GORE told me so...; February 11, 2011 at 12:46 PM
Anonymous said...: cv--

you feeding those w/ insect larvae, yet?
~~

Fixxy,

in re: Staples, I'm not sure that's correct..

Prices are, still, going up..the 'lower 1.3' are facing 'buying less'/trying to substitute d-ward/not buying(demand destruction)..

it's in the 'non-essentials' where the 'dreck' is stagnating/not selling/not going up in Price..

at least, from this Quartert, is how it looks..

AAIP; February 11, 2011 at 12:48 PM
Anonymous said...: you say cull the herds... it's done naturally?

http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5iBqTaxksA16r9WY1VapqmVJsoZAg?docId=CNG.273270170b9bb2d7b2be0a00f1d8156f.11; February 11, 2011 at 12:50 PM
CV said...: "Aggregate DEMAND remains low.
Wage inflation is NON-EXISTENT"

---

I'm sorry, but I'm going to call "BS" on this...

Just look at World Population statistics...

More mouths to feed = MORE AGGREGATE DEMAND...

Are you going to tell me that the mass of the PLANET EARTH (and the arable land on it) is keeping up with population growth?

Or, what about those famous "Chinese" (who are now taking a liking to meat), who are going to REKINDLE the engine of "growth" in the world?

"Growth for growth's sake is the ideology of the cancer cell."; February 11, 2011 at 12:50 PM
karen said...: HILARIOUS from Nic.. she's feeling better today !

NicTrades Nicola
Looks like Mubarak is selling all his Gold and Silver ;); February 11, 2011 at 12:54 PM
CV said...: "you feeding those w/ insect larvae, yet?"

---

I did last summer... But the "experiment" wasn't totally successful because they were mostly still "fry" at the time...

Now that I have some mature, I'll have to see the effect this year...

It's all still a "practice" (because I don't know the NEEDS of mature vs. the fry - and I can't check right now because it's cold and there are no larvae handy)...

In any case, I'll have finally found a USE for some standing pools of water here and there... I'm experimenting with WORM FARMS in the same way...

Still learning...; February 11, 2011 at 12:55 PM
Anonymous said...: Re:Foot and Mouth
Down here we call it Hoof and Mouth,
Well because cows don't have feet
they have hooves.

Longhorns have a natural immunity to this disease and several others.

foghorn; February 11, 2011 at 12:57 PM
CV said...: @Anon

"I've seen the Whole Foods in San Rafael CA is always packed... rather pricey items but at closing time, peeps are still running up to the door. The Safeway parking lot down the street is 30% full, and some of that might be for the stores nearby... just saying"

---

I'm not surprised to hear that at all...

People either living off the TEAT of government jobs, government contractor jobs, technology or IT infrastructure, etc. are still 100% IMMUNE to what is happening...

(cue the "merry-go-round" music); February 11, 2011 at 12:59 PM
Anonymous said...: Now Foot and Mouth

We have several specialists in that area.
GWB springs immediately to mind.
He was born with a silver boot in his mouth.
Or was it
He was born on third base and thinks he hit a triple.

foghorn; February 11, 2011 at 1:01 PM
Anonymous said...: cv--

http://search.yippy.com/search?input-form=clusty-simple&v%3Asources=webplus&v%3Aproject=clusty&query=vermiculture

is a good idea, too..

those mofo's can turn into 'tradable Goods', as well, and, if not, you get add'l 'cultivators' for the cropland + more birds..

O, and, the 'castings' make a good fertilizer..

ibid.; February 11, 2011 at 1:03 PM
CV said...: @foghorn

"He was born on third base and thinks he hit a triple"

ROR

---

"He was born on 3rd base (with a silver boot in his mouth" and thinks he hit a triple"

...there, FIXED it :-); February 11, 2011 at 1:04 PM
Anonymous said...: Thank you sir.

As an aside it is going to close red or black today?

foghorn; February 11, 2011 at 1:06 PM
CV said...: @AAIP (1:03)

Good link!

Alright... Everyone don't go effin' HAYWIRE when CV says this but...

Worms are the best SLAVES one can own...; February 11, 2011 at 1:07 PM
Anonymous said...: Doh
is it; February 11, 2011 at 1:07 PM
CV said...: 'Bees' & 'Bats' are handy too...; February 11, 2011 at 1:07 PM
JB [every] FD said...: two buyable dips today (4 yesterday)...

everyone should be board now; February 11, 2011 at 1:09 PM
CV said...: @foghorn

"As an aside it is going to close red or black today?"

---

Better ask I-Man...

My only skills lie in the WORM department these days...; February 11, 2011 at 1:12 PM
JB [every] FD said...: oops, so giddy on the $$$ I'm making, can't type...

everyone should be onboard now; February 11, 2011 at 1:12 PM
Anonymous said...: worms like cow poop; February 11, 2011 at 1:17 PM
CV said...: I'd imagine one would have to consider the 'effect' of HOW MANY MONDAYS OUT OF THE LAST "X" MONDAYS have been GREEN (or better "gapped up GREEN")...

Fear "the Bernank"(shortsellers) into 'closes' on Friday...

No wait... don't fear "the Bernank"... Fear all those individual inWestors who are "pricing in" the market at 22 second intervals, and making trading decisions to reflect a 6 month anticipation as a discounting mechanism...

THERE... fixed it...; February 11, 2011 at 1:18 PM
Anonymous said...: worms like coffee too!

http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=KC&p=d1; February 11, 2011 at 1:21 PM
Anonymous said...: Hey Hoffer

Speaking of baking bread from earlier.
Started baking my own about a month ago.
Very cool.
Very tasty too.

foghorn; February 11, 2011 at 1:22 PM
CV said...: @JB[every]FD (aka Harry Wanger)

Well I hope you made at least 1.6% on your trade...

Because "cotton prices" say it's going to cost you that much more to put a shirt on your back tomorrow, AND/OR print the money on "notes" to buy that shirt at Bergdorf Goodman...

Unless you use PLASTIC for your purchases... In which case, your cost went up as well because these days the Chinese have made plastic a part of the daily food pyramid...; February 11, 2011 at 1:23 PM
CV said...: Worms "DO" like coffee...

CV can attest to that! (coffee grounds in compost)...

Good thing I bought all the coffee 5 years ago and FROZE it...

I don't know WHAT I'd do these days...

Fucking WORM 'feedstock' inflation is a bitch bitchez!; February 11, 2011 at 1:25 PM
CV said...: on bread...

"Ciabatta" type bread is the easiest (ingredient wise) to make from scratch (barring most yeast procurement and oven types)...

Otherwise... NAAN type (Indian) or PITA type (ARAB) is the method one ought to be accustomed to... IMO; February 11, 2011 at 1:29 PM
Anonymous said...: so why don't more peeps switch to natty gas vehicles today?

http://finviz.com/futures_performance.ashx?v=16; February 11, 2011 at 1:30 PM
CV said...: I should say "accustom themselves to"...; February 11, 2011 at 1:30 PM
CV said...: Hey LOOK!

BIDU... All time high!

In China, you can only afford REAL RICE if you own BIDU stock...

Otherwise, it's plastic city baby!; February 11, 2011 at 1:32 PM
Anonymous said...: Here is my basic recipe
3 c bread flour
1 T yeast
1 c water
1 T olive oil
2 T sugar
1 T salt

foghorn; February 11, 2011 at 1:35 PM
CV said...: Potash WELL BEYOND a 61.8% retrace of 2008 levels... (on it's way to???)...

No inflation on food prices (or growing) there...

Remember, you can always get cheap food at those "out of the way" markets in those little podunk towns...; February 11, 2011 at 1:35 PM
Anonymous said...: C

I am talking about working class Latino neighborhoods of our cities. Where folks aren't ashamed to be called "working class" and haven't been brainwashed into paying $2.50 for a can of soup or $1 for a lemon, and where they buy almost everything in bulk or on sale, for example rice and flour in LARGE bags and then store it in jars like grandma used to in the Depression. Poor immigrant people have life skills that most Americans have forgotten or never learned.; February 11, 2011 at 1:36 PM
CV said...: @foghorn

That's a good basic recipe... (for bread)...

But the 'factors' vary so much on how you want it to turn out in the end...

- temperature of water
- amount of CARBS you want the yeast to munch on
- heaviness of flour
- 'escapability' of CO2
- how the gluten is exercised in the process

Breadmaking is the ultimate art (with a wonderful reward in the end)...; February 11, 2011 at 1:39 PM
Anonymous said...: Anon
I can attest to this personally
It is the way we roll on the ranch.

foghorn; February 11, 2011 at 1:41 PM
Anonymous said...: What I am saying is that inflation means different things in different places. MUFFY will pay whatever WHOLE FOODS wants to charge but ROSALIA will look around town and will end up paying whatever is in her pocket book at the end of the week, and it isn't usually much. Don't think that America ends at the end of your street, because it doesn't.; February 11, 2011 at 1:41 PM
CV said...: @Anon (1:36)

I'll +1 on that...

What I'm basically saying is... That when TSHTF, I'm supposing the ones you describe will be more equipped to deal with the situation...

In the aggregate though... I think MOST are CLUELESS as to what's going on (because it STILL hasn't made an impact on their disposable income)...

That's whatat's why there are arguments on interpretation...; February 11, 2011 at 1:42 PM
Anonymous said...: CV
As I said i am a rank amateur baker
Feel like I cheated myself out of 25 years of goodness.
Highly recommend the KitchenAid Artisan stand mixer.

foghorn; February 11, 2011 at 1:44 PM
CV said...: @Anon

"Don't think that America ends at the end of your street, because it doesn't"

Well if you've been reading what I'm saying, you'd know that I already know this and it is why I'm so vocal about it...

THAT is why I continue to be vocal on the "Bernanke Monetization Experiment" (and how it's adversely impacting ROSARIA)...

Not that Ben Shalom Bernanke (or his Rothschild "masters" really care)...; February 11, 2011 at 1:45 PM
Anonymous said...: This is why wage inflation is key. As long as PACO is only bringing home $100 from the job he does with his hands that no American wants, that is all that is going to get spent. Add in all the Americans who are on food stamps who also aren't seeing any wage inflation and you have a fairly stagnant pricing environment.

Now over in McMansionville, things may be different because those people are still obsessed with KEEPING UP APPEARANCES. That's where you might see the inflation.

There is more to socioeconomic stratification than most people think. Americans are obsessed with race, and they forget about the economic effects of class distinctions and barriers.; February 11, 2011 at 1:45 PM
Lord Blankfiend said...: Let Them Eat Cake.; February 11, 2011 at 1:46 PM
Anonymous said...: The local peeps in my podunk little town(7500 or so) don't seem clueless.
Over 50% Get It.
That's a good start.

foghorn; February 11, 2011 at 1:48 PM
CV said...: @foghorn

The "KitchenAid" is the exact model I own...

I've only found one drawback... Less than 3 cups of flour make the doughhook assembly useless... So if you're making "smaller" batches, you end up having to DOUBLE sizes...

You can't RECREATE it in a CUISINART (because the blades damage the gluten strands...

Nevertheless...; February 11, 2011 at 1:48 PM
karen said...: BTW, from Wiki because Marie Antoinette did not utter those words:

In Chinese culture, there is a variation of this story that involves rice and meat, instead of bread and cake. This was quoted by Emperor Hui of Jin who ruled ancient China in the 3rd Century. When his imperial officials informed him of victims of a famine having no rice to eat, he replied: "If they do not have rice, why not eat meat stew?"

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Let_them_eat_cake; February 11, 2011 at 1:53 PM
CV said...: "so why don't more peeps switch to natty gas vehicles today?"

---

Well... Most people who post on this blog might remember that CV asked that question many years ago...

But I'm pretty much of a dipshit...

- I "questioned" Obama's potential as a leader
- Bought GOLD in 2004
- Sold real estate in 2005

And I do "crazy" things now like start tilapia & worm farms, build farraday cages, collect nickles, and QUESTION whether or not that markets are being manipulated...

I'm pretty much TF "out there"...; February 11, 2011 at 1:54 PM
karen said...: http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2011/2/11/most-heavily-shorted-sp-500-stocks.html; February 11, 2011 at 1:56 PM
Anonymous said...: Whether she said cake or not...
It wasn't long before she was toast.

Do you sell the Farraday cages or record picoAmpère signals?; February 11, 2011 at 1:57 PM
Anonymous said...: Cake was/is made of the crappiest flour
While bread is the best flour.
Put that in your diddy bag

foghorn; February 11, 2011 at 1:59 PM
CV said...: @Anon

"There is more to socioeconomic stratification"

---

How "quaint" the concept of socioeconomic stratification... Please explain the dynamics of that situation when the last gallon of milk is on the shelf and there are no more cows...

@karen (1:53)

Correct...; February 11, 2011 at 2:00 PM
CV said...: @Anon

No REAL MAN would ever sell a farraday cage (or even plans to build one)...

In fact, not even a "mercantilist" of the highest order would ever CONSIDER engaging in the such a business...

It would be counter-intuitive...; February 11, 2011 at 2:03 PM
A fixed income analyst to be named later said...: - Sold real estate in 2005

Nice timing. I bet you were peeing your pants to get out from under before it fell. But it must be great to sleep soundly.

Every now and again we have the dream where the BERNANK turns off the spigot, trading volume trickles to a stop and BONII dwindle to nothing as we enter a KONDRATIEFF WINTER so beloved of ultraBear Albert Edwards, as no financial products trade and packs of investment bankers roam from co-op to co-op building, raiding the larders for something to eat..... and we are holed up in the country, eating from the root cellar and drinking home-made beer.

But then I wake up, and we are in ZIRP and QE, and The Colossus Ben Bernank strides across the land distributing liquidity, and jack-booted investment bankers rule Manhattan, trailing European fitness trainers and porn stars in their wake as they buy up penthouses and drive up the price of everything in their path....; February 11, 2011 at 2:04 PM
Anonymous said...: Given the choice between a deflationary nightmare and the current reflationary nightmare, the former seems so much more desirable....; February 11, 2011 at 2:06 PM
CV said...: @Anon

My best advice (simpler - in the long run)...

If you're going to store your gold underground, on your property... Invest in BUCKSHOT (and spread it all over the place at regular intervals)...

Better yet... Take after Jesse James and hide it in the woods... You know, 50 paces left of the large oak, near the granite outcropping, towards the direction of the 4PM sun on the summer solstice...

:-); February 11, 2011 at 2:07 PM
Rothschild Family and friends said...: @Anon (2:06)

Not to us...; February 11, 2011 at 2:08 PM
CV said...: @karen

In any case... MA said "brioche"... Any good European knows that "brioche" is not CAKE...; February 11, 2011 at 2:09 PM
A fixed income analyst to be named later said...: UK is having an inflation spike. They are about 6 months ahead of us in the reflation/devaulation cycle. In fact they are already in slowdown there, as anticipation of the austerity measures start to bite, which means their inflation is probably about to decline.

This is what we are talking about. It exists. But it will be transient.

http://www.zerohedge.com/node/309709; February 11, 2011 at 2:10 PM
karen said...: CV.. she did not utter the phrase "Qu'ils mangent de la brioche" at all..; February 11, 2011 at 2:12 PM
Anonymous said...: Maybe she didn't
but you just did ; )

foghorn; February 11, 2011 at 2:17 PM
Anonymous said...: http://www.economicnoise.com/

Despite government propaganda every shopper knows inflation is already a serious problem. The Financial Times presented annual price increases for various items, which included the following:

heating oil +41%
copper +59%
silver +91%
palladium +212%
corn +91%
wheat +79%
cotton +143%

------------------------------

Unsustainable
Period.

foghorn; February 11, 2011 at 2:23 PM
Anonymous said...: off to Trade some 'Notes' for Goods..

wish me Luck~!

I'll try to catch up later..

AAIP; February 11, 2011 at 2:26 PM
CV said...: @AFIA2BNL

"Nice timing. I bet you were peeing your pants to get out from under before it fell. But it must be great to sleep soundly"

---

It's NOT ALL A BED OF ROSES...

I'll give myself credit for the following (and supplement my "luck/acumen" meter honestly)...

- I bought TECH STOCKS starting in about 1993... (More LUCKY than anything - I needed someplace to deposit cash I was making)

- LITERALLY sold the entire portfolio in March 2000... (Half LUCK - half SKILL)... The "luck" part was that the NASDAQ crashed peaked 7 days later... TOTAL LUCK... The "skill" part was that I was faced with a tantalizing proposition of buying REAL PROPERTY, in an "exchange DOLLARS to ITALIAN LIRA (pre-EURO0 environment at 72 cents on the dollar)... Had NO CLUE that real estate would go ballistic, but KNEW that my 2% mortgage lock in was a sweet deal (therefore I bought AS MUCH AS I COULD AFFORD TO OWN based on the monthly nut)...

- Bought GOLD starting in 2004 (the start of my "asset escape plan")...

- By 2005... KNEW that the property market was in a bubble... AND YES YOU ARE CORRECT... I WAS S***TING my pants hoping to find a buyer who wasn't KEEN to that idea... Lucked out and SOLD to a "Knight of the British Crown" (no lie)...

- My sale cash was ESCROWED until 2007

- Got my cash in 2007, and here's where I made a HUGE mistake... LOST a lot in equities in 2007 & 2008 trading poorly... Not that I has the general market direction wrong, just that I traded it like dogshit...

- Got fed up in late 2008 and used the remainder to buy distressed FARMLAND (at the bottom) in late 2008...

- Been working on developing that ever since...

- The "PM" holdings still haven't been liquidated... Now will (at this point)...; February 11, 2011 at 2:27 PM
CV said...: Should have said "nor will"...; February 11, 2011 at 2:31 PM
karen said...: http://www.housingwire.com/2011/02/11/corelogic-cfo-resigns-after-getting-wells-notice; February 11, 2011 at 2:31 PM
karen said...: are we really gonna melt up into the close?!; February 11, 2011 at 2:32 PM
CV said...: Hey!

Whadda ya know?

Stocks are UP...

Must be all those individual investors "pricing in" the market because STOCKS LOOK CHEAP here...; February 11, 2011 at 2:32 PM
karen said...: where's the volume?! LOL.. oh yeah, that explains it..; February 11, 2011 at 2:33 PM
which way did they go said...: SPX unreal!, but, the trend is in, until it changes, though still up, up, up!; February 11, 2011 at 2:37 PM
CV said...: Actually...

Truth be told... Someone NOT driving a CNG or propane powered vehicle, pasing by a gas station today and seeing $3-$4 dollar a gallon gas, might ACTUALLY COME TO THE CONCLUSION that "stocks are the only thing that look cheap"...

But that's only in a country where they think in terms of WTI...

Anyone take a look at "BRENT" lately?

The ROW thinks in BRENT... Americans think in WTI (and that's why you can still get .79 cents a pound deals on OVEN ROASTERS at the local supermarket which will gladly accept food stamps for your purchase...; February 11, 2011 at 2:37 PM
Anonymous said...: cv...

CNG map

http://www.cngprices.com/; February 11, 2011 at 2:43 PM
karen said...: my jaw is agape..1330+; February 11, 2011 at 2:43 PM
Larry Bothritz said...: Oh ye, my 8% correction was to the upside, wanted to make that clear, ROR (ROR correct right?); February 11, 2011 at 2:46 PM
Jennifer said...: New highs? UFB. I need a frou-frou.; February 11, 2011 at 2:49 PM
Anonymous said...: Greenspan really is a strange dude. US housing prices need to FALL another 20-25%..... he will be waiting a long time for +10%

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-11/greenspan-says-u-s-housing-prices-may-need-to-rise-10-for-solid-rebound.html

UNLESS the printing is going to go NUKULAR

ROR - this is part of our JAPAN meme, right, we aren't being racist but we are RAFFING OUT ROUD to see BoJ PORICY of QE in use here.; February 11, 2011 at 2:50 PM

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This blog should not be interpreted as investment advice of any kind. The authors are NOT representing themselves CTAs or CFAs or Investment/Trading Advisor of any kind. The authors may or may not trade in the markets discussed. The authors may hold positions opposite of what may by inferred by this blog.The information contained in this blog is taken from sources the authors believes to be reliable, but it is not guaranteed by the authors as to the accuracy or completeness thereof and is presented here for information purposes only. Commodity trading involves risk and is not for everyone.

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Morning Corner 2.11.11

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