A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection.
Creditcane™: These are not the droids you're looking for. Even Egypt couldn't stop the bulls. What's wrong with this picture?
SPXBullish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. Made a new 0.0% retrace. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1310.87). QE2infinity. JBTFD…
DXYSpinning top day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above the 14.6% retrace (77.54). Still above SMA(21). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 77.07).
VIXBearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still below all SMA's. New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 16.69). Still out of the "no fear" zone. Currently has a monthly 3LB reversal.
GOLDSpinning top day. Midpoint above EMA(10). 0.0% retrace holding. Held above SMA(21). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1333.70). Must have the precious.
EURUSDSpinning top day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Held above 1.3506 (the 50% retrace). Back below SMA(21). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 1.3813).
JNKBullish short day (confirmed inverted hammer). Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. Closed above its 50% retrace (40.47). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 40.63).
10YR YIELDSpinning top day. No test of 0.0% retrace at 37.44. Still above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 35.20). The Bernank will again have a sleepless weekend.
DJ TRANS AVGBullish long day. Above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 4994.87). Also had a weekly 3LB reversal up.
XLFBullish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. Made a new 0.0% retrace. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 16.74).
TLTBullish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still below all SMA's. Way below lower trend line. No daily 3LB (reversal is 89.72). Currently has a monthly 3LB reversal (down).
AUDJPYSpinning top day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Trading above all SMA's. Still below its 85.4% retrace (0.8368). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 0.8303).
"LEFTBACK'S" BOND REPORT
Today was a well-received respite from the wintry cold steel of my long tsys position, with the warmth of the always-ephemeral common sense assuaging the few of us fixed income investors who actually demand a premium for taking risk (if only for a day).
Spreads in credit seemed a bit too tight for me yesterday, and I was forced to crack my strategy and sell the remainder of my high yield position that I was holding as part of my core (2%->0%). I hate to drop a core holding, but cash can be just as comfortable (unless you are into gold buggery--har har!).
I wouldn't be surprised to see more tomfoolery early next week, pressuring the long bond (again), only to abate on a sell-the-news Wednesday.
47 comments:
Heavens !
That was actually better than the real thing.....
DENVER – Global beef demand is increasing as the world beef supplies tighten, said Brett Stuart, Cattle Fax market analyst, on Feb. 4 to more than 5,000 cattlemen and women during the Cattle Industry Convention in Denver. “2011 will be the fourth consecutive year of global beef production declines,” said Stuart. “This will not correct quickly. We will see very tight supplies moving forward.”
One major contributing factor to increasing demand comes from outside the borders of the United States. Stuart said business in the international marketplace is growing quickly as improvements to infrastructure and logistics are made. Beef exports are witnessing substantial growth with 75% of all US beef exports going to Mexico, Canada, South Korea, Japan and Vietnam.
“Korea is very aggressively buying beef from the US,” said Stuart, adding that the foot-and-mouth disease issue is causing substantial reductions in South Korea’s domestic meat supplies. “Last week we had outstanding sales to Korea at 24,000 tons, which is up from 9,000 tons a year ago,” he added.
Increasing demand from outside the US will continue the upward trend, Stuart predicted. He suggested an 8% to 10%increase in US beef exports in 2011 compared to last year. He said it could even surpass his expectation.
“I am not saying exports will be up 18% [from 2010], but I'm not saying they won't be,” he said.
Kevin Good, market analyst for Cattle Fax, said 2011 will be another year of tighter supplies and a “very mild” cow herd reduction. He added stabilization is also in sight, projecting the early half of the year will bring continued reduction but suggested the decline will simmer in the latter half of 2011. The smaller herd is a “double edged sword,” according to Good.
“Demand will be a notch better this year,” he added. “Total domestic supplies will be lower this year than last. I am very bullish on price, which is good. But we have to start retaining heifers and rebuilding the cowherd to meet this demand and compete globally.”...
http://www.meatpoultry.com/News/News%20Home/Trends/2011/2/Global%20beef%20demand%20rising%20as%20supplies%20tighten.aspx
http://www.meatpoultry.com/news.aspx
"A look within the United States makes clear the overriding influence of fiscal and regulatory policy. Monetary policy is uniform across the 50 states; the base rate of interest paid on a business or consumer loan or a mortgage in Michigan, California, Ohio or New York is the same as that paid in Texas. Yet there is a reason that Michigan and California each lost more than 600,000 jobs over the past decade while Texas added more than 700,000 over the same period. There is a reason that the population of Ohio grew by only 183,000 residents over the past 10 years, while Texas grows by that number every five and a half months. There is a reason that with each passing census, the state of New York has been losing congressional seats and Texas has been adding them; a reason that, in the recent census, California failed to gain any while Texas gained four. There is a reason that, as documented in the Jan. 12 issue of the Wall Street Journal, college graduates—the best and brightest of the successor generation—are leaving New York and Cleveland and Detroit and moving to Austin, Texas. There is a reason no state in the union houses more Fortune 500 headquarters than Texas. There is a reason for the disparate employment growth that has taken place in the 12 Federal Reserve districts over the past two decades, data that are documented in the graph at your place setting.
That reason has nothing to do with monetary policy. It has everything to do with the taxation and fiscal and regulatory policies of the states. The cost of capital does not explain the different economic performances of the states; the cost of doing business has everything to do with those differences. However well-meaning tax and regulatory initiatives in the laggard states may have been when they were conceived and levied, they have had unintended consequences that have led to economic under-performance and job destruction."
Richard Fisher's comments warmed my loins.
YGFBKM
Thanks Ricky poo... shall I return to my home (in the cardboard box under the underpass in an orderly fashion now)...?
We're actually getting to the point where I'm losing track of what the various acronyms stand for now.
I had to actually look up what "YGFBKM" meant...probably a sign I'm definitely not "cool" or "hip" to the blogosphere lingo.
I suppose it's also a function of having better things to do...
I spent my first 17 years of life in CA. Next 5 years in NY. Next 2 in Seattle. Next 4 in SoCAL. Last 11 in Texas.
In the middle of that time, I did many, many trips to the Far East (Japan, Korea, Hong Kong, Taiwan, etc..)
Everywhere I've been is the same, yet different all at the same time (Going Philosophical).
"People are people".....
I can tell you that Texas "kicks ass" in many ways....
There are "better" places to be, for sure, but if you're going to make a LIVING, and RAISE a family, and make a LIFE, this is an OK spot to waste your time.
That's all I can add in response to Richard Fisher at 7.00PM.
I always thought it was YGBFKM, but, hey, what do I know..
~~
The system for calculating most domestic fuel bills in the UK is contributing to thousands of deaths each winter, public health experts say.
The UK Public Health Association says two-tier tariffs - where the first units cost more - penalise the poorest.
It wants the "iniquitous" price system changed so cheaper units come first.
Energy firms say this would hit many vulnerable people who are at home all day and that they spent £150m helping vulnerable customers last year.
Every year the cold weather brings illness and death. Across the UK each winter there are, on average, more than 30,000 fatalities caused by low temperatures....."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-12420077
When National Journal first reported that President Obama's budget will cut a popular home heating-assistance program for the poor, it got Democrats furious and pundits wondering.
The Democratic nominee for president before Obama, Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass., denounced the proposed cut. So did Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, D-N.H., and many others especially from cold weather states. After all, the Low Income Home Energy Assistance Plan is about as sacrosanct as, say, the Head Start program for low-income children.
LIHEAP helps the poor stay warm in the winter and cool in the summer. And since it's disproportionately the elderly who are reliant on the program, it engenders even more sympathy. Who wants Grandma freezing?
Slashing the program's funding seems meant to prove a few things. It could show that the president is tough on the deficit....
http://nationaljournal.com/whitehouse/is-energy-cut-obama-s-welfare-reform-or-fireman-first--20110210
Rick Gedeon
Activist Post
Gerald Celente, Director of the Trends Research Institute, contends, "The police have become the enforcers for the crime bosses."
Paul Criag Roberts, former Assistant Secretary of the U.S. Treasury under Reagan, recently wrote in his piece entitled Americans are Oppressed, Too where he goes on to state that:
Why are the police so aggressive toward the public? In part because their ranks attract bullies, sociopaths and psychopaths . . . Police in the US now rival criminals, and exceed terrorists, as the greatest threat to the American public.
The current situation exceeds anything Orwell had ever conceived – it has gotten to the point where former Navy Seal and Governor, Jesse Ventura, began taking steps to sue the TSA this past January. Ventura, a frequent flier and well-known and admired public figure, is apparently not immune from experiencing sexual humiliation at the hands of TSA agents via “Touching, Gripping & Rubbing of the [his] Genitals.”...
http://www.activistpost.com/2011/02/road-to-oppression-is-paved-with-bad.html
AAIP + @22:43
WASHINGTON - Tens of thousands of the nation's war widows find it perplexing and downright disrespectful to their late military husbands: In order to fully collect on insurance their husbands bought for them when alive, they must marry another man.
And to qualify, the widows must remarry when they are 57 or older. Those who remarry earlier miss out, as do widows who never remarry.
At the heart of the issue is a government policy known as the "widows' tax." It says a military spouse whose loved one dies from a service-related cause can't collect both survivor's benefits and the full annuity benefits from insurance the couple bought from the Defense Department at retirement. Instead, the amount of the annuity payment is reduced by the amount of the monthly survivor benefit.
Time after time, members of Congress have promised to help the 55,000 affected widows, but laws passed to help them have only created a more complicated system that's left many of them confused and angry.
So what's remarriage got to do with it? Very little, as it turns out. The marriage condition was stuck into the law by Congress as it attempted to help the survivors retain certain benefits if they remarried late in life, as is the case with other similar federal annuities. Because Congress hasn't been able to come up with the money to help all the widows, relief has been limited to that group. The result is an all but incomprehensible mess....
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2011/02/09/national/main20031129.shtml
Interesting that we spent hundreds of billions to foment democracy in Iraq. Then, out of thin air, real democracy attempts to break out in Egypt.
You CAN'T force these things....
They happen when they happen.
Period.
>> "People are people".....
"You were right, Moccasin. People are the same."
-Roddy McDowell, Twilight Zone
The GOM has oil. Texas is next to it. Texas has oil. Rig operations can't be shipped off to India. That's the *main* reason Texas is doing better than everywhere else.
Are Fisher's observations untrue? No. But, they're less important.
People are people.
When a friend told me back in 2006 "look at low-tax Nevada and how great that state is doing!", I told him "just you wait". (Funny that Fisher doesn't mention Nevada.)
Wherever people go, they bring their issues with them. With their issues, they end up creating more complex government. When business goes south, they want government to do something. Does "more government" explain why business went south? Maybe. Maybe not so much. Maybe it's a coincident indicator.
Saturday, February 5, 2011Why You Need to Own Nickels, Right Now
On November 11, 2010, I wrote in the EPJ Daily Alert:
Back at the commodity level, copper is the latest to hit a record at $8,966 a ton. Copper is certainly not a "goldbug" play and is simply an indicator of economic (inflationary) demand. At some point, nickles, which are mostly made of copper, will start to disappear from circulation. There's right now 6.2 cents worth of metal in a nickel [Note the value is now up to 7.2 cents.-RW]. When I run into someone that does not have a strong background in investing, I now tell them to buy nickels. You need storage space and a strong back to move them around, but a $100 box of nickels (roughly the size of a very large brick) can be lifted without a problem. You can stack plenty of "bricks" on a hand truck. What's great about this investment is that there is no downside. In the unlikely event that there is no inflation, you can just spend your nickles... again,this is a great conservative investment...I fully expect the coins will eventually climb in value to at least double their 5 cent price. The gvt has made it illegal to melt them down, but you will never have to do anything close to that. When you need to liquidate, just sell them to a numismatic dealer.
Gresham's law (bad money drives good money out of circulation) will take over at some price point and the coins will simply disappear from circulation, just like the pre-1965 silver content dimes and quarters have, and trade at much higher prices. Those silver dimes now have over $2.00 worth of silver in them, the quarters have roughly $5.27 worth of silver, and you will never find one in circulation. The current nickel has 7.28 cents worth of metal content (mostly copper) in it. At some point they will disappear from circulation. Indeed, that may not be far off into the future, if the story starts to get around about nickels the way it seems to be.
Financial author Michael Lewis told a story about a huge nickel investor, this week on the television show, The Colbert Report. The must see video is here.
Note: You can track the metal value of nickels and other coins at Coinflation.com.
http://www.economicpolicyjournal.com/2011/02/why-you-need-to-own-nickels-right-now.html
That wasn't even me (the Anon) that posted at 1:33...
But this is me posting this...
I'm going to leave this thread up over the weekend instead of putting up a new one...
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/m2-grows-40-billion-one-week-hits-fresh-all-time-high
Tyler Durden appears very vocal on that subject, as he makes several posts himself in the comment section...
Have a good weekend folks...
My goodness, I still have shivers over the Richard Fisher commentary..
Texas has had its share of boom and bust.. Nevada.. apples to oranges! and no effing water to support the speculative housing market that grew around a city that shouldn't exist imo.. LOL.
Anyway.. the ENTIRE tax system in the US is broken. The mal-effects and corrupt leadership have us in ruin.. and that is how i see it!
I'm glad I didn't show up here last night.. I forgot to eat yesterday and had wine for dinner. What a stressful week it was..
"I forgot to eat yesterday"
I have no idea what that means. I never go more than two hours without eating (except while sleeping).
In fact, there are a couple of new york strips in the fridge waiting for me... it's only 10:45... can't resist... grill getting ready to fire...
@K. The ol' "wine diet." My wife does that sometimes... IT actually does keep the lbs. off, but you feel like shit the next day.
Ha.
@wunsacon.
You're point is well taken, and the fact is a severe and sustained drop in energy prices would hurt Texas for sure.
However, it's worth noting that Louisiana ALSO borders the GOM. Over the last 20 years, some pretty major oil companies have ditched their offices in Louisiana and moved to Houston, TX.
Also, the oil and refining industry began in the Northeast with Standard Oil (Now Exxon, Mobil, Chevron, Amoco, etc...). Exxon and Mobil had some pretty huge/sprawling campuses in New Jersey at one time...
They still have offices there, but overtime, the executives/offices have migrated to Texas.
Oklahoma used to be home to some pretty big oil companies (i.e. Phillips, Citgo), but those jobs/offices have moved to Texas as well.
On a smaller scale, the last few years have witnessed several "big name" banks move their energy trading from New York to Houston.
So, yeah, Texas will have its boom/bust cycles with the cyclical moves in energy prices, but the State has done a good job of attracting jobs/businesses.
@wunsa.
The generally accepted view is that: "Hey, oil prices are high, so of course Texas has done well."
I can tell you that some of these big corporation, like Conoco, have been shedding jobs the last few years.
Technological advances have helped these firms eliminate bunches of people over the years. You'd be surprised at how little growth there has been in some of these firms over the last several years.
IOW, Whether oil is 40/bbl or 140/bbl, it takes the same number of people to operate a rig. Whether refining margins are huge or skinny, it takes the same number of people to run a refinery.
But, when some new technology/process comes along that can help eliminate some middle management/support, you better believe these oil companies "right size" as quickly as any other business.
AT,
don't forget about 'Health Care'/'Medical Device Manufactures', esp.in Houston, and S. Valley "West", in Austin...as others..
AAIP
further:
http://www.qmed.com/mpmn/article/29455/lone-star-state-takes-shine-medical-device-sector
ibid.
AAIP: Exactly...over the last few decades, Texas has become home to some world class medical centers. The growth in some of these medical centers has been amazing.
~~~~
in re: Nickels bitchez! I'm a buyer of that theory. How does one acquire $10,000 worth of nickels, though? Seriously, I'm a bid for $10,000 worth of nickels...how do I get filled on that bid?
AT,
talk to your local 'Branch Bank'..
not sure they'd be keen on the 10K #, but, I'm sure they'd fill smaller lots..
repeat, as necessary..
that 'Colbert Report'-piece was, really, bad news, though..
I've been asking for Nickels, in change, instead of Dimes, for a long time..
usually, to quizzical/"whatever"-type of looks..
just, last week, a young Cashier, on the 'hip' side of things, in response to my request, started ~giggling/smiling..
anyway, LSS: 'Bank Managers' may be less 'helpful', now, then previously..
I'll have to check, up here, to put the 'Empirical' into it..
AAIP
AT
Bring a dump truck and a forklift.
1 Nickel = 5 gr.
foghorn
Ok.
So, $10,000 in nickels would be (10,000*20) 200,000 nickels. 200,000 nickes would weigh (200,000*5grams) = 1,000,000 grams, which would be 1,000KG of nickels.
One kilogram = 2.2lb. So, $10K in nickels would be "literally" a Long Ton of metal....2,200 lbs.
Volumetrically, as the article points out, $100 in nickels would be like a brick. (Weight = 22lbs)
So, $10,000 would be 100 "bricks" of nickels.
So, it would take some "effort" to collect $10,000 worth of nickels...
What's the "upside" I wonder?
i.e. In 20-30 years from now, what could $10,000 worth of nickels be worth?
I'm only "half" serious in this discussion...just going through the logistics of this in my head.
AT,
barring a 1/2 dozen decent Drill Bits, I'm sanguine about the whole 'Nickel Trade'..
but, right now, it's, somewhat, akin to a 'out of the money'-Call option..
the "Nickel" would have to change/go out of circulation before the 'existing stock' would begin to 'trade higher'..
also, the comparison, of Nickel, to Silver is specious..
Nickel, simply, does not have the History, that Silver enjoys, as a Monetary metal..
+ on a 'scrap' basis, "Laws" notwithstanding, I think that by the Time "Nickel" Premiums/Melt are seen, We'll be mining Landfills for old Dishwashers/Refrigerators/Stoves (etc.)...
AAIP
I'm 'not' sanguine...
@Andy T/AAIP
Take it from the "NICKLES BITCHEZ" king... And don't ANY of you forget that you heard it here first, as I've been crying that meme for about a year now... (and DOING IT, for more than that)...
I'm up to more than 67,000+ of the bitchez...
You can't do it in any kind of bulk deal... It has to be incremental and spread all over the place...
First of all, you have to stop paying for things with credit cards and use cash...
- Liquor stores
- Grocery stores
- Banks (large ones)
are your only reliable sources...
-Liquor stores (mainly because they value you as a customer)... I get about $4-6 bucks a week there (just asking for a $2 roll in your change)...
- Grocery stores or other casual purchases... Same, ask for a $2 roll with every CHANGE (depending on how "cash frequent" the business type is... Most won't even have more than a $2 roll handy in a register (so it's hardly worth asking for more because it ends up being a hassle)... The $2 rolls are a no brainer...
So that gets you to about $6 a week... The rest you have to get from banks... If you're NOT a customer, and if the bank is small, many times they may not serve you...
If it's YOUR BANK, $10 at a time is really all they'll be willing to do without problem (not that the bank is broke, but the NICKLE need is probably really a hassle)...
So I do about $20 a week (spread out)... & I've been doing it for quite some time...
Storage isn't a problem in the end... 5 gallon paint buckets, 55 gallon drums...
Sometime in the future, I'll teach you all to hide them from metal detection on property... (which MAY be something to contend with in the future)...
regardless of the incremental "seeming" hassle, it's really just a ROUTINE...
It's the only FREE MONEY on the planet (unless you're a central banker)... But of course, central bankers have NOTHING TO DO with commodity price inflation, so physical metals prices just magically go up on their own...
And when that horrible DEFLATION sets in... You own the "face value" of that currency...
When the roving bands of vandals come to ransack your house, let them try to make off with your metals... $100 notes? no problem... (assuming they don't burn in a fire)...
@AAIP (3:21)
I'm going to take the other side of that argument...
The ancient Chinese moved down from gold to silver to copper to iron in their coinage...
And because the future of this miserable planet comes down to "coal firsd Chevy Volts" (thanks to GENIUSES like Al Gore and Obama)... Cu has found utility that it never had before...
if it's TRUE that "growth" is our salvation, then I'd be more thinking that the existing telephone lines would be dug up before landfills (for the copper)...
That's STILL done at expense... It's hard to DIG UP anything without diesel fuel, right?
As in with LIGHT SWEET... You always want the EASIEST supply available...
cv--
w/ "...It's the only FREE MONEY on the planet..."
who's, currently, paying a Premium for Nickels?
as I was saying..~it may be a 'Free' Option, but, it isn't 'Free Money'..
AAIP
Weekly 3LB Update 2/11/11
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/one-chart-von-bernankestein-will-never-see
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/sysco-declares-force-majeure-raises-grocery-prices
http://thepacker.com/Mexico-freeze-threatens-vegetable-crops/Article.aspx?oid=1305528&fid=PACKER-TOP-STORIES&aid=684
from Zero Hedge link..
"The Packer" is a good Trade/Industry source..
AAIP
This could get very interesting.
http://brontecapital.blogspot.com/2011/02/guanxi-vs-analyst-carlyle-and-coming.html
A few people are finally doing some due diligence on Chinese companies accepting investments(public and private, some NYSE listed), and finding out that a large percentage of them are complete and total frauds.
@AAIP
Yeah I suppose a free 'option' describes it better... other than the fact that DELIVERY has already been taken...
Feb. gas prices set record
http://journal-news.net/page/content.detail/id/556001/Feb--gas-prices-set-record.html
NEW YORK (AP) - U.S. gasoline prices have jumped to the highest levels ever for the middle of February. The national average hit $3.127 per gallon on Friday, about 50 cents above a year ago.
The price is about 6 percent higher than on this date in 2008. The next day, pump prices began a string of 32 gains over 34 days. They rose 39 percent over five months, eventually hitting an all-time high of $4.11 per gallon in July.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1356018/Bolivian-President-Evo-Morales-flees-town-angry-miners-throw-dynamite-protest-food-shortages.html#ixzz1Dl9CCFul
RE: nickels
(.0727135/.05-1*(100)) = 45%
2006 article...
http://www.usatoday.com/money/2006-12-14-melting-ban-usat_x.htm
Anon
Miners throwing dynamite at the Bolivian President? Damn. That's old school.
Ra-
that's funny! it just wouldn't have the same impact though if they were throwing their macbooks at him
Ok cv.
I'm long $12 worth of nickels from yday. My liquor store guy didn't love it, but I'm a good customer. The Randall's customer service lady gladly gave me $10 worth.
...Reframing the choices before us from a battle between "quantitative easing" and "austerity" to one between "fiat creation" and "living within our means" is a necessary first step to making the right choices as a culture. If we can't even properly state the problem, we'll never arrive at a solution.....
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/guest-post-first-step-solving-problem-stating-it-correctly
Acknowledged, Andy. I see your points.
Anon @ 2:04 PM, CHS rocks!
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