Perfect excuse to not do anything and watch football... (NFL Wildcard games Saturday & Sunday - BCS Championship Monday)... I'm getting a late start on this post so I'm going to be adding pieces to it all afternoon to recap all the various "calls" I've made throughout the season and what that all means...
The bottom line is (and this is why I do this on this blog)... Sports wagering is VERY MUCH like portfolio management... You have winners and losers... The idea is to stay ahead of the margin you pay for your losses (which is 10%)... So you basically have to be "right" on 53 out of every 100 chances to BREAK EVEN... It's not as easy as it sounds...
You must also consider that there is oftentimes a "herd" mentality in sports... The fans and public like to latch on to, and support "winners"... Nobody wants to be sitting in a rabid sports bar and be the only one rooting for the "other" team to cover a line... Not AT ALL unlike the "bull-bear" mentality on Wall St...
Vegas is basically the JPM or Goldman Sachs in this game... They will do everything in their power (psychological trickery), to get you to side with the wrong team, or get you to lay more points than you should which will favor them marginally, over time, when booking all bets...
I'm going to do more complete game writeups this afternoon... But I'm leaning on taking the points with the SEAHAWKS, JETS, & PACKERS, and laying the points with the RAVENS...
The amount of "units" is yet to be determined because I have to wait to see the final tally on where the public is coming down... As always, I'm not really betting pointspreads, I'm betting the publics reaction to the pointspread...
As always - in this thread you can talk about anything you want... I couldn't believe an article this morning that the US Justice Department is going after "private tweets" from a member of Icelandic Parliament...
Big Brother bitchez!
(CV is doing his part to help "Big Brother" by getting you all conditioned to just sit on your couches all day and enjoy the spectacle of BREAD & CIRCUSES)... Soon - I'll be moving into commentary on the daily soaps & talk shows... Or maybe I can get you all to hang on my every word when I marvel you with my tales of eating Surströmming on one of my many visits to Sweden... Bon apetit!
---
NFC Wildcard
New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks (4:00 EST)
Line: Saints by 10
For those who lay double digit lines without thinking (in the regular season), understand that this is not the regular season... Playoffs mean "elimination" from contention to the losing side... Nobody is doing any "learning", ot "looking forward" to next weeks game... They've forgotton about what they did last week (and, perhaps all season)... It's important to understand that psychological mindset... One should also try to understand the pressure of being a favorite, or a "dog" in a playoff game... There is added pressure for a team who is "supposed" to win over a team that considers themselves just lucky to be there... Nowhere is this more evident in the Saints vs. the Seahawks... The Saints are defending Super Bowl Champions, and the seahawks are much maligned as the "7-9" team that backed into the playoffs because they happen to play in a week division...
Since the "wildcard" system has been in play, there has NEVER been a ROAD team laying double digits to an opponent... The most points ever laid were the Rams laying points (6) on the road to these same Saints in 2000... Ironically, the Saints won that game knocking the Rams out of contention...
Seahawk detractors will point out here that they have lost games by over 15 points 6 times this year (including a 34-19 loss to the Saints at the Superdome earlier in the year)...
I'd remind everyone that Matt Hasslebeck had his most passing yards of any game this season on that day, and that the score was 27-16 at halftime... The Saints were playing the week AFTER their bye week so were fully rested and prepared... They also had the services of Chris Ivory, and Marques Colston (both of which are out for this game)... The Saints, atre also down to 3rd string tight ends (which was a huge sorespot in their loss to Tampa Bay last week)... The Saints have backed into the playoffs losing 2 out of their past 3 games, and are without a solid tight end/running game package to "grind it out" against Seattle like they were able to do in the second half of the first game (while they were playing in the friendly confines of the superdome)...
I'm not trying to make a huge case for playing the Seahawks here, but if they manage to take care of the ball and not committ turnovers, I think they can stay in this game... I'll go with the SEAHAWKS for (2 units)...
AFC Wildcard
New York Jets at Indianapolis Colts (8:05 EST)
Line: Colts by 2.5
The Jets cone back to Lucas Oil Stadium in a re-match of last years AFC Championship game... Don't forget that the Jets jumped out to a lead (and were leading at halftime), until Peyton Manning opened up on them in the 2nd half...
I remember watching that game that the Jets were attacking Manning with blitz schemes the entire first half, but then went to simple zone coverages in the 2nd half... I reallt think that cost them the game... The "analysts" like to tell you that Manning is so smart, and he'll eventually figure out the blitz... Some of that is true, but it really takes a team that can "man-up" against receivers that are inferior route runners, and have reliable hands... That's the dynamic you have with the Jets (with Revis & Cromartie on the corners), coupled with the fact that, on this occasion, Mannings weapons are NOT named "Wayne", "Clark", "Harrison", or "Collie"... But instead, are named "Wayne", "Garcon", "White" & "Tamme"... Only "Wayne" has any big game experience...
I'm sure Manning will find a way to get these fellows the ball, but I'm guessing a few drops may occur as well... or worse, "tipped balls" (which, when you're talking about a Rex Ryan defense, often wind up as interceptions - not the fault of the QB, but of jittery WR's)...
Oftentimes, there's also something ELSE in a game (which never quite makes it into the betting lines)... Which is why the public simply automatically puts it's $$ on the arm of Peyton Manning to the tune of 70%...
This past week, a little 11 year old kid died of cancer that the Jets (and especially Mark Sanchez) had forged a bond with... Over the past month, Sanchez & this kid had basically become BFF's, texting back and forth, etc... The kid lost his battle this past week... Don't be surprised to see Sanchez come up with some kind of herculean performance... I don't like to go AGAINST that type of voodoo...
Maybe in the end, this game will come down to the sure foot of Adam Vinateiri, and the vanilla Colts will move on as they always seem to do... Maybe Manning will beat Rex Ryan again... But I'm going to side with the JETS for (1 unit) here...
SUNDAY NFL PLAYOFF GAMES
AFC Wildcard
Baltimore Ravens at Kansas City Chiefs (1:00 EST)
Line: Ravens by 3
I am very thrilled that both of my picks came in yesterday (Seahawks & Jets)... NOT for the reason anyone might suspect (the winnings - which were both only mild unit plays)... I'd be "beating my chest" if they were 5 unit picks and/or "called" an upset (although for all intents & purposes - I was calling a Jets upset with a short line)... With the Seahawks - I was only calling for a "cover" (which pays just as much though if you're not on the Money Line)...
Anyway, aside from all that background, the real reason I was happy with yesterday is because Goldman Sachs, JPM, Vegas WON BOTH GAMES (at pretty decent spreads to the public)... When you're getting 65% - 70% of the money on one side, and that side loses and has to pay you the 10% vig... Then you're having a good day... Vegas had a good day yesterday...
That's why it's "easier" to be able to side with a team (Ravens), where more than 80% of the $$ is going their way... Believe it or not... I CALCULATED THAT POSSIBILITY yesterday (which is a big reason I ended up siding with the Jets & Seahawks)... Not that I was sure that either or BOTH were going to come in... Only that I KNEW that if the SAINTS, COLTS, RAVENS, & PACKERS all won & covered this weekend, Vegas would be shutting down)...
Ironically now... Vegas is "playing with the houses money"... lol
I've found over the passage of time that things tend to even themselves out (always with Vegas catching the vig)... And oftentimes, the book is closed and ledgers adjusted at the end of each week)... During the regular season, the Sunday Night Football & Monday Night Football games are the great equalizers (and sometimes the 4:00 games themselves)... But in the postseason, it all comes down to one or two shots... I don't know how or why, but vegas ALWAYS gets paid... What you have going this week is the fact that the BCS National Championship is on Monday Night... That will be a heavily wagered upon event... 65% of the money is on the auburn Tigers laying points (and the SEC is 5-1 in Bowls)... You can bet that Vegas is a HUGE FAN of the Oregon Ducks...
But a "scenario" needs to be created in order for the Ducks to be a MUST WIN... That scenario took a little dent yesterday when the public paid Vegas on both the Saints & Colts folding up... The "sheeple" (just like on Wall Street), need to be lured back to the betting window...
I'm hoping the way that turns out is that BOTH the Ravens & Packers win and cover today... BOTH THESE teams were my "preseason picks" to go to the Superbowl and represent their conferences... If these games go the other way (Chiefs cover - eagles cover)... The public will be broke on Monday and Vegas will fail to have lured in pigs for the biggest slaughterhouse of them all...
If the Chiefs win, people are going to be like "F*** THIS!", Seahawks & Chiefs moving forward? WTFF?
Anyway, I just wanted to present the "dynamics" of the entire SPORTS BETTING WALL, before getting in to "X"'s & "O's...
The Chiefs are clearly an inferior team to the Ravens... The Ravens (this must be said) have to be as happy as can be to be playing the Chiefs in this first round... It "could have been" the Colts (until the Chiefs got blown out at home by the Raiders in the last game of the season)... The Colts have had the Ravens number for many years now... And while I doubt the Ravens think they CAN'T beat the Colts, it's just a relief to dodge that bullet again... Put it this way, the Ravens are 3 point FAVORITES at KC... They would have probably been 2.5 "dogs" at Indy (same as Jets)...
Now that presents a different dynamic... YOU'RE NOW A FAVORITE ON THE ROAD (as the Saints were)... That puts added pressure on a team... As the "dog" team can just play loose and hope for the best...
I'm telling you, as a Ravens fan, that "psychology" doesn't work on the Ravens... They're a team that knows how to take care of business on the road... they have the best POSTSEASON ROAD record, by far, of any team in the NFL over the past decade... They even went in to Foxboro, Mass last year and manhandled the Patriots (the only "home" game that the Patriots have lost in the past 4 seasons)... Year before, they beat the Titans in Nashville (when the Titans were 14-2 with the best record in the NFL)...
The Chiefs are a little "suspect"... They have "no wins" against any teams that are in the playoffs this year... In fact, they've only PLAYED one team that made the playoffs this year (the Colts) where they poured their guts out using all kinds of trick plays & gadgets and still lost by 9 points...
So while the "expert" announcers will tell you all about their #1 ranked rushing offense, and Matt Cassel's "career year"... Remember, this was all done against teams like the Broncos (twice), Jaguars (missing their starting QB), Texans (worst defense in NFL), etc.
Ravens, OTOH... Ended the season with a 12-4 record... The losses were... Overtime loss to Patriots (on the road), in a game they had a 10 point lead in the 4th quarter (Patriots were #1 seed in AFC)... Loss to Falcons (on the road), in a Thursday Night game on 3 days rest... Raven had the lead with 50 seconds to go before the referees started throwing flags all over the place allowing the Falcons to score a final TD on a pass to Roddy white in which HE HIMSELF admitted that he's committed an offensive foul on (Falcons were #1 seed in the NFC)... The Steelers... In which the Ravens had the lead with 2 minutes to go until huge play by Troy Polamalu forced a fumble and set up the Steelers with a game winning TD... And a loss to the Bengals in week 2 where the Ravens just didn't show up to play after wiping themselves out on the first MNF game of the season vs. the much hyped Jets...
Of course it always sounds like I'm touting the Ravens (which is true)... But it is NOT without merit...
What I want to point out here is that it would be a HUGE upset if KC beat the Ravens here (perhaps even more than the Seahawks beating the Saints)... The Saints were "backing in" to the playoffs... They'd lost 2 of their last 3 games (one to the Ravens), and were really coming unglued anyway... The Ravens, OTOH, won their last 4 games in "business like" fashion... They'd gotten it together after the emotional Steelers loss and just went about winning football games...
Nobody really knew why the Chiefs fell apart in the last week of the season against the Raiders... It's not like they weren't playing for something... A win would have made them #3 seed, and instead, they dropped a position to #4...
The Ravens, finding themselves in this spot, aren't thinking ("oh, I hope we can compete in an NFL playoff road game")... They're thinking "Been here - done that - we're EXPECTED to win - let's get it done"... The KC "mojo" is that their NFL statistical rankings aren't that bad, but they've compiled all of them against inferior opponents with no pressure... Their "stats" vs. quality teams aren't so great... Their defensive coordinator is Romeo Crennel (who the Ravens used to beat up on a regular basis twice per year when he was head coach in Cleveland)...
They ALSO know now (with the Jets having beat the Colts)... That a win here, books them a ticket to visit their ARCH RIVAL Pittsburgh Steelers next week... Think the Ravens want to pass up that chance? The Steelers were the team that knocked off the Ravens in the AFC Championship 2 years ago when the Steelers went on to beat the Cardinals...
The only thing I DON'T like about siding with the Ravens is laying points (anytime) on the road, and the fact that they're supported by the public... Normally - I wouldn't lay any "units" on a game like this, but the SPECIAL thing is is that it's a PLAYOFF game (single elimination)... AND that Vegas had a good day vs. the public yesterday... So I'm going to lay (3 units) on the game with the RAVENS...
My $$ management is as follows: Yesterday I won 3 units (2 on Seahawks, 1 on Jets)... So I'll put those same units on the line...
- If that comes in, I'll have 6 units in pocket... (and probably go "light" on the Packers... 1 unit)
- If the Chiefs "cover"... I'll be back to even (owing the $30 juice)... But in that scenario, Vegas would have WIPED OUT the public in 3 consecutive games... I'd then GO LARGE on the Packers (probably 4 units)...
- If it's a PUSH (which is possible, with a 3 point spread)... Then I still have $300 in pocket and would probably go about 2 units on the Packers...
Got all that? :-)
Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Dog Killers (4:30 EST)
Line: Eagles by 2.5
I've already given away (in the previous write-up) which way I'm siding in this game... As always, it's not all about "X"'s & "O"'s, it's about invisible things...
For whatever reason, the public still seems to be in love with a "dog killing" quarterback, and a President of the United States who likes to call him up from time to time to say how PROUD he is of his dog killing skills that he is a role model in todays society...
I've said enough about it... And at this point, I'm happy to let WHATEVER WILL BE... BE... If I live in a country that wants to turn dog torturers into heros, and honor Chicago mobsters who want to enact a totalitarian government police state while people cheer him on, and award him Nobel Peace Prizes... So be it!
As always... I like to create "scenarios" in my mind... Oftentimes, STRANGE SEQUENCES OF EVENTS come jelling together to create that scenario...
I remember quite vividly this past football season (it was just AFTER the game where Vick exploded on the Washington Redskins on Monday Night Football), and the Falcons were quietly winning games, that I said to myself...
"Oh no... here we go... It's going to be the Eagles playing the Falcons (in the Georgia Dome) for the NFC Championship game... You could just see it coming... The DOG KILLER IN CHIEF going in to "stick it to" the team that released him from the organization (and was able to tear up the $100 million contract on misconduct clauses)...
I don't believe for ONE MINUTE that Vick is not still vindictive towards Arthur Blank (Falcons owner)... In fact, when the Falcons traveled to Philly this year, Vick specifically asked permission to be able to show up to the stadium late so he wouldn't have to meet Blank before the game (that was while Vick was still rehabbing an injury)...
What does that tell you? If I were to tell you that I thought it's because Vick has not changed ONE IOTA (except that he no longer kills dogs because, as "Pavlov's Dog" would dictate, killing dogs gets you 18 months in Leavenworth and takes away $100 million dollars)... Maybe you would tell me that, "No - I'm sure he's a model citizen now, and that all his words have nothing to do with the fact that it's the only way he'll be able to score another lucrative million dollar contract, or get to pal around with the "celebrity ass kisser in chief"...
Reality probably lies somewhere in the middle (but never foreget that the key word there is "lies")...
Anyway, back to "scenarios"... The "scenario" now here (with the Seahawks having defeated the Saints, is that the Seahawks will travel to play the Falcons next week [where the clock will strike midnight], and Atlanta WILL, IN FACT, be hosting the NFC Championship in the Georgia Dome...
Now - the Eagles just have to "make it there" (meaning they'll have to beat the Packers here, then beat the Bears next week on the road)...
Can that happen? Sure! (if for no other reason than to bring CV's mid season premonition into existence)... You gotta know that sportswriters would be splooging themselves to get to cover that outcome...
But I'm hoping that will NOT occur...
Another interesting dynamic that has come into play is that the next round of playoffs is shaping up to be DIVISION rivalries...
- Yesterday, by the Jets winning, now it's AUTOMATIC that they go play the Patriots for ther 3rd time this year...
- If the Ravens win, they'll book a ticket to play arch rival Steelers next week
- & if the Packers win, they'll go play arch rival Bears next week
Is that how the dynamics are shaping up? I hope so!
I'd be happy to put this Vick chapter to a close... Not that I'm against him quietly moving forward and repairing his life.. I'm actually FOR that... But I HATE THE MEDIA SPOTLIGHT on it... I feel like I have to take a shower everytime I see some sportswriter piece on Michael Vick... Why? Because nobody is willing to risk "political incorrectness"... The first sportswriter that come out on the OTHER side (especially now that Obama is in on the gig), will be sure to be facing a press conference by Jesse Jackson or Al Sharpton...
The Packers are a team that quietly emerged after a slew of decimating injuries this season... They may be one of the teams that is actually playing their best football coming in... I'd picked them PRESEASON to go to the Superbowl (and stood by that pick even when they were injured and losing games)... Only now are sportswriters starting to get on their bandwagon (which is the main thing that makes ne nervous about supporting them)...
But, you dance with who brought ya, right?
Technically... In this matchup vs. the Eagles (which is a rematch of Week 1 where the Packers beat the Eagles in Philly)... I think the Packers pass rush matches up very well against the eagles front line 9which sucks)... Vick has been able to extend plays with his feet, but it is apparent to me that he is wearing down... The Vikings were able to get to him numerous times (in an embarassing loss), and remember that the Packers know the Vikings schemes very well... Dom Capers, I'm sure studied that film a lot...
The only thing that would make me nervous about supporting the Packers here would be things that you can never control... What if Aaron Rodgers suffers another concussion... Matt Flynn did well vs. the Patriots, but that was when he was taking snaps all week... I just don't know...
Nevertheless, I'm backing thje PACKERS here no matter what... The "units" will be based on what happend in the earlier game... (Which are described in the previous write up)...
If my mind changes... I'll let you know in the comment section...
70 comments:
The New York Times has an interesting summary of where we are in the sovereign debt mess..no, Leftback, that is not when your Rolls is attacked by commoners and you have to ask your mother for money to fix it.
Will the Mad Hatter stay? I understand that Michigan has cooled about wanting him to coach.
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/08/business/global/08euro.html?_r=1&ref=business
The Crisis That Isn’t Going Away
CV,
I don't know as much about sports betting as you, but it's said that some of the top traders over time only got 30-35% of their trades right, they were just exceptional at managing losses.
I guess by comparison making money in the market is "easy"
que David T!
@McF (8:53)
Oh I would agree with that 100%...
Most of what I'm able to attain in these profit-losses is avoiding getting KILLED...
Last nights game (LSU-Texas A&M)... was a perfect example...
The "Vegas Edge" would have been to take Texas A&M and the under... Instead, LSU covered, and the over came in...
But I sat on the sidelines and kept my powder dry...
Vegas will get its money back when all the chest beating LSU (SEC fans), get a dose of reality by "doubling down" on Auburn Monday night...
Guess which side CV will be on?
As always...
The pigs are being led to slaughter (with smiles on their faces)...
From the prior thread...
Speaking of cats -- when cats attack!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zATogM8p3FM
CV,
did you see the end of the UD game? Probably not as it was on the same time as the C-Bowl, real heartbreaker for them.
Wunsacon,
previous thread, don't take that post I wrote the wrong way, I just think people need to come to grips with the fact that the fed is a follower and its the markets that they follow
Understood, McF. I did not read any "bad tone" in/into it.
I'm pretty sure I understand your point. And I believe it. But, I don't think the interest rate system is so one-sided, where the rest of the market just pulls the Fed along. I think the Fed *does* participate in controlling real interest rates, especially via printing money or not printing money.
...
Interestingly, if the Fed didn't control interest rates at all, then could we still blame Greenspan for playing a part in the "credit bubble" (aka "housing bubble")?
Wunsacon,
the Fed has never operated a printing press, common myth
to your point though, they have only used 90 day bills for roughly the last decade, from studies I've read they've changed their benchmark several times over the years but given we are in ZIRP + QE I don't think it's going out on a limb to assume they'll stick to 90 day bills as the signal it's ok to raise rates, iow, the market telling them that participants have confidence again.
now, given that is my view, the conclusion is that Greenspan wasn't the root cause of the credit bubble any more than you or I or everyone else was. It took widespread participation to make it so. there were credit bubbles before greenspan, there will be lots more after him.
Pinning it all on him is too simple a worldview imo, it is a very popular thing though I realize.
and that's not an excuse for Greenspan, who was either too dumb to see what was going on or knew damn well but figured he'd be able to work around it with all the mystical fed tools everyone always talks about, he certainly helped enable the massive credit bubble, but that's not the same as being the root cause.
MackieFear,
How did you like VP at the Hens game?
btw, did you notice Condi-baby @ the recent Stanford tilts (hoop v. UConn, and f-ball v. VTech) ?
~~
past that, it was a tough loss for UD..
PATs are 'automatic', yes?
tho, seems that they, still, covered..
also, why was that game in Frisco, Texas?
AAIP
AAIP,
re: VP, my wife: "why's HE there" lol, I have a client here in DE that is pretty close with Joe, he once said to me "he's not as smart as he thinks he is" which I thought was funny. I didn't see Condi though at those other games....was she rocking her boots?
I'm not sure why they moved the game to Texas this year. Football capital of the world? I didn't realize until last night but the kid playing QB for EW last night was from Katy Texas which I think is around where AT lives, and real close to George Bush park. Wonder if he saw him play in high school.
you think retail is getting interested in stocks again?
Well, you be the judge, just got an e-mail from a client, he tells me that Citi should trade at $14-$18 by the end of 2012.
I asked for the analysis that led him to this valuation. Response is pending, and my guess is, there was no analysis at all!
this homeless guy Ted Williams looks a awful lot like Obama right?
Speaking of Obama...
Obama Eyeing Internet ID for Americans
http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-501465_162-20027837-501465.html
"STANFORD, Calif. - President Obama is planning to hand the U.S. Commerce Department authority over a forthcoming cybersecurity effort to create an Internet ID for Americans, a White House official said here today.
"We are not talking about a national ID card," Locke said at the Stanford event. "We are not talking about a government-controlled system. What we are talking about is enhancing online security and privacy and reducing and perhaps even eliminating the need to memorize a dozen passwords, through creation and use of more trusted digital identities."
---
Yeah right... They're from the government & they're here to help...
Here's how they're "helping you today...
U.S. orders Twitter to hand over WikiLeaks records
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/us_wikileaks_twitter
In the "you can't make this stuff up" department...
Rep. Nancy Pelosi tells CNN's John King she blames George W. Bush for the recent Democratic loss...
http://www.cnn.com/video/#/video/politics/2011/01/07/jk.pelosi.dem.loss.bush.cnn
http://www.kitcometals.com/charts/aluminum_historical.html
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20110108/pl_nm/us_obama_guantanamo_detainees
"WASHINGTON (Reuters) – President Barack Obama, in a setback to hopes for the quick closing of the Guantanamo Bay prison, reluctantly signed a bill on Friday barring suspects held there from being brought to the United States for trial...
ror
UFC Fighter Jacob Volkmann Calls Out President Barack Obama, Gets A Visit From the Secret Service...
http://sports.yahoo.com/mma/news;_ylt=AkPS94eW5I.6m1uc2HBwXPFzfNdF?slug=mmaweekly-b0eb628c4e352ae5a67151dca2a17281
"UFC lightweight Jacob Volkmann, following his win over Antonio McKee, declared that he wanted to fight U.S. President Barack Obama for his next bout. His words got him a visit from the Secret Service on Tuesday.
Volkmann, who is based out of Minnesota, told MMAFighting.com after his win over McKee that he wanted to face Obama because he disagreed with many of his policies..."
CV,
not a shock at all, it's the slow march toward all of us having chip id's inside, all in the name of "security"
within 20 years we'll need papers to travel from state to state as well, for safety sake.
and re: Volkmann
oh come on, don't you do that, report threats like that good citizen in the article?
I mean, the people across the street have had the blinds drawn for 3 days, so I phoned that in. Could be a meth lab over there.
I saw a guy in the grocery store this morning with dark sunglasses on and a hood, it might have been Bono, but I phoned in on him too, just in case.
I'm doing my best to serve Obama.
some big news:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/us_congresswoman_shot
McB,
haven't you seen the Wal-Mart+N@polit@no/DHS "If you See something, Say something"-tag-team combo?
~~
On the Pigskin front:
I'll go with the Seagulls + the pins, and the Horseshoes @ Home - the 2.5 ..
AAIP
Karl vs. Krug
AAIP,
yes, unfortunately I have seen those, posted about it here months ago when I was on my authoritarianism bender, it would seem more and more people are acting on it.
We all have our roles to play.
hmmm, didn't realize Palin had this woman in "crosshairs"
Sarah Palin is a dipshit, regardless of whether or not it's related in any way, wtf is she doing putting people in crosshairs, is that what I want my president to do to the people they don't agree with,... I think not.
the more I think of it, she's constantly referring to guns, like don't retreat, reload.
perhaps she's a descendant of Yishmael
as for Krugman, I want to know who all his readers are, who is giving this guy a voice?
from the suspected shooter:
http://www.youtube.com/user/Classitup10#p/u
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/01/republican-introduce-bill-to-eliminate.html
"The biggest problems that we're facing right now have to do with George Bush trying to bring more and more power into the executive branch and not go through Congress at all. And that's what I intend to reverse when I'm president of the United States."
- Sen. Barack Obama, March 31, 2008
To say President Obama failed to follow through on this promise is an understatement. By appointing a virtual army of "czars" - each wholly unaccountable to Congress yet tasked with spearheading major policy efforts for the White House - the president has made an end-run around the legislative branch of historic proportions.
To sum things up what this research shows is that the move from the March 2009 low is nothing unusual as there have been previous occurrences in the past after the market has become extremely oversold and the smoothed 18 Period RSI has dropped below the 35 level. Also after each impressive oversold rally the Dow eventually retraced anywhere from 61.8% to 78.6% of the previous upward move as it corrected from 28% to 53%. Meanwhile as shown above the current pattern most resembles the one from the mid 1970s which would mean an extended consolidation period would develop over the next several years with support coming in at the 61.8% Retracement Level.
marshawn lynch!!!
I do not care who you are - THAT was a great game.
And the StinkHawks won too.
Wooo Hooooo
Mangy Mutt
real nice call on that game CV. Isn't Mutt a Seahawks fan?
Ben - That Marshawn Lynch run was increadable.
Mutt
Mutt,
It really was, one of the best runs I think I've ever seen, that was a great way to start the playoffs.
Ben - That was probably one of the funner games that I have watched (Unless of course you are a Saints fan)
The Seahawks won a spot with a 7-9 record and were not expected to do well agaist the Saints, so even if they lost it would have been "What ya expect"
I just didn't want to see them get blown out.
It was that run that swung the momentum back to the Hawks and won the game for them
Mutt
yes, good game by the Seagulls, sorry for the late (post kick-off) call, was DVR'ing it--to be able to skip the Commercials--didn't realize it was 'so late'..
nice Call cv-- ~
AAIP
Stiff arm of the century during that run.
And MSM, seems to be taking this as your everyday homicide..
I am apalled, personally.. shocked, dismayed, disheartened, disgusted.. saddened...
Update 2: from Fox Phoenix: 12 people shot at Gabby Giffords community meeting. Congresswoman among the injured, while CNN reports 6 dead and 15 wounded.
Update 3: NPR confirms Gifford has died. Gawker has provided a description of the shooter.
Update 4: Reuters refuting the previous NPR news, and states that Giffords is still alive, in surgery, nine other patients brought in from shooting, per a hospital spokeswoman
Good Calls all around today CV. I really liked the Jets tonight. Wasn't sure that the Seahawks could cover a spread, but I would NEVER bet against a Pete Carroll team in a big game--he's a motivator.
Happy to see Manning get bounced. Sad to see my Saints go, but if you can't stop the Seahawks, you don't deserve to move on.
Been in recovery mode all day long. I was AS drunk has I've ever been last night at Texas Stadium--really wild night.
Have a lot to say about that various happenings today, but will be happy to save it for tomorrow.
Hope everyone is having a good weekend.
Karen - Thank you for bringing the silly boys back down to earth.
I was sitting here trying to think of a snappy comeback to AAIP's "Seagals" comment.
Then read your post - There is no game in the world that can or should compare to real life.
Boys will be boys, but there is a time they need to be men - But MSM would like us to always act as boys. (And so would we)
Thank you for making this real.
Mangy Mutt (James)
On of the interesting things about the political "spectrum" is that it's not linear. It's a circle....
If you're far enough left or right wing, you actually share many common views...
Pretty sad day all around...
>> the Fed has never operated a printing press, common myth
Treasury issues financial paper. Fed buys them with credit it creates itself.
Isn't that the same thing?
I wonder if this shooter thought he was controlling some sort of lucid dream, he had all this strange stuff about dreams in the video so I did some googling and it's some sort of new age thing I was not aware of, who knows, you can't make any sense out of these videos, clearly had some stuff going on and wasn't all right.
wunsacon,
this isn't the place for a novel on it but no its not, I went through this way back on Andy T's site.
MM,
I was going w/ "Seagulls", not "Seagals" -- been a Cincinnati fan, too long, to lay that on somebody else..
also, the Horseshoes are going back to the Barn..
2 for 2 , cv--, nice Picks..
just, tell me you're on the Green Bay side, and it'll, all, be good~ :)
AAIP
@AAIP
I will be on the Green Side... (read above - added to thread)...
The Ravens & the Packers were CV's "pre-season" picks to go to the Superbowl (so I can hardly abandon EITHER here)...
Since the Packers are "dogs" in this spot, they automatically get the nod... Question for the Ravens is, "do they cover the spread" (with 82% of the public supporting them)... Usually I hate supporting a team in that situation, but...
- With the public losing "BOTH" games to the Vegas bookies yesterday
- The fact that the Ravens were one of my "preseason" picks to go all the way
- The fact that KC lost by 17 points last week... (Teams losing their last game of the season are 0-5 in their first playoff game since 2002)
- The line is only 3, so a "push" might be the worst that could happen (he says "MIGHT")...
I'll be siding with the Ravens (in a "money management" mode - which I'll describe above)...
Also...
I have to say this or else risk being an idiot...
But that "shooting" in Arizona, I don't have enough details about (so that's why I'm not really talking about it yet)...
Not that MY OPINION on the matter is that important... In fact, I'd prefer to here OTHER opinions than offer my own...
All I know is that if it turns out that it WAS politically motivated (and especially that multiple victims were involved, then that's just sad)...
But what would even be "sadder" would be to think if politicians &/or media use this as a way to "whip people up" even more...
Things like this are simply the next step in cultural de-volution... I'll make a comparison (that won't seem to make sense, but actually does)...
This weekend there was another article about some TV show on ABC in which one of the actresses "bare ass" was in one of the scenes... Anyway, a lawsuit was filed, but that lawsuit just got tossed out (no fines to be paid)...
So the speculation is now that we'll begin to see more "bare asses" on TV (TV producers will fall over themselves to present more "shocking" things, especially if they don't run any precedent risk of being fined)...
So now that we're on to "killing" politicians, what next? One could say that this wasn't the first politician ever shot... But the "difference maker" here is what the system has evolved to...
The "image" of a Hinckley, or Squeaky Fromme, or LH Osward, is that they were simply lone individuals acting on their own...
I have no doubt that in this environment, the situation will be turned into a political football... (Meaning that there NO POSSIBILITY that the shooter was just some dude who listened to Beatles albums backwards)...
Instead, it'll be "all the teapartiers", Sarah Palin, and anyone who ever said the Pledge of Allegiance, or sang a few bars of the national anthem who pulled the trigger...
EVERYONE will be guilty... (unless, of course, you're Nancy Pelosi... In which case, it'll all be "Bush's Fault")...
See... Even in football yesterday... The Saints lost because it was all "Bush's Fault" (#25)...
"But what would even be "sadder" would be to think if politicians &/or media use this as a way to "whip people up" even more"
CV,
I'm with you here, I thought about this a lot yesterday.
This likely scares a certain number of people away from attending any sort of public political events, which could lead to problems
then there is the idea that people "on edge" that talk about "new currency" are a threat.
People seem to be putting a lot into his list of books on youtbue, but half those were books kids are forced to read in high school.
Who reads Krugman?
I'll tell you who: credentialists. I spend a lot of my free time with lawyers (no jokes please--it's just the direction my friends went after undergrad). There people read the New York Times and lap it all up.
Anyhow, a recent conversation recently went like this (Cliff's notes).
Lawyer: Need to bail out homeowners, banks, and munis to prevent depression.
Me: Redistribution of wealth, misallocation of risk capital, malinvestment, future crises more frequent/severe, slower long-term growth
Lawyer: Krugman has a Nobel Prize and is smarter than you
Me: Yasser Arafat won a Nobel Prize; Obama won a Nobel Prize
Here's another conversation I had with several other lawyers in 2006 (Washington, D.C.):
Lawyers: Have to get a house or be priced out forever
Me: Price to rental rate ratio several standard deviations above historic average; Over-capacity/supply, leverage, fraud, etc.; cited 2002 study by IMF about bubbles bursting indicating that real estate bubbles cause most severe economic dislocations
Lawyers: Bernanke says home prices can't go down
Me: Bernanke is a government/banker mouthpiece.
Lawyers: Bernanke has a Ph.D; He is smarter than you
So if you want to know who trusts these crooks, look no further than the Ivory Towers indoctrination that the government all but forces on the masses today.
@ben22
I don't ever remember reading "Mein Kampf" or "The Communist Manifesto" in high school (or EVER, for that matter)... lol
"Catcher in the Rye" and listening to the beatles "White Album" backwards are the only things I know of that make you a certifiable nut job...
Or, blogging on Survovor Capital...
Which reminds me... CV had better not hear of any of you who post comments here going off the rails and getting your names in the paper!
I don't want any black helicopters paying me a visit!
Game write-ups for today's NFL playoff games have now been added to thread
"Survovor Cap(o)tol..."
ROR
See what Obama zombification is doing to me?
Oh & by the way...
Before I forget... That run by Marshawn Lynch yesterday easily ranks in the top 5 runs in the NFL I've ever seen...
- Marcus Allen's "reverse field" run in the Superbowl comes to mind...
- Any number of Gayle Sayers runs
- Bo Jackson (vs. Seawawks) on MNF, or Tony Dorsett vs. Vikings (though neither of those were as impressive "breaking tackles" runs)
- John Riggins vs. Miami in Superbowl
I'm not reading from a script here, I'm going off of memory...
Also, this morning I read the post Barry did on this, no point in saying it's getting heated out there, I'd say we are already in the furnace less than 24 hours in.
social mood......and color me concerned about what happens when it turns down in a meaningful way again.
to Andy T and Ahab,
I think I understand where you guys are coming from, I tried to make my point above not to tie Palin to this, to blame her for it. This kid had something going on with him that wasn't right.....I'm not a doctor but I watched all those videos he had up and anyone would see he wasn't right, and he’s the one that pulled the trigger, not her. I hold him accountable. I also think that anyone trying to claim that dangerous language is something only the right engages in or is something new, is absolute nonsense.
That said, surely the two of you recognize that our words can and DO have tremendous impact on others and that those that are in a position where millions of people around the world hear them, and listen to them, may want to consider carefully what they say, which was the point of my Palin rant above.
Consider the last election, I think words like "hope" and "change" were hugely appealing to a wave of social mood that was rising in this country. Do you believe that those words might have influenced some people so much that they didn’t even bother looking twice at Obama, they simply believed him? Do you think as a result of that influence the course of this country is now forever changed in one way or another? I think that’s likely. In my little world what Obama did there was just as destructive as what Palin is doing with her constant references to weaponry.
If I study US History, or world history, it would seem that the words of men and women have over and over again had tremendous impact on the lives of hundreds of millions of people in their own time, even shaping the lives of generations to come.
“Even so the tongue is a little member, and it can boast of great things. See how much wood or how great a forest a tiny spark can set ablaze!”
From where I’m sitting this thing is going to get all twisted up and into a bunch of things that it should never be about, look for some new massive expansion of the Patriot Act in due time. If you see something, say something.
That Chinese proverb, may you live in interesting times.
I’m not sure, maybe it’s better to live in boring times.......
CV,
Those books certainly not, but Animal Farm and several others, they were required reading in my English classes.
Matthew,
lol, thanks for that. What a tired argument "they are more qualified" has become, and how widely believed it is.
As for the line "yasser arafat won a nobel, obama did" hilarious, made my morning.
CV,
I agree on that Lynch run, said as much yesterday and you've likely seen a lot more games than me. My wife who doesn't like football was watching the game and when he tossed Porter on the ground even she yelled. That was just awesome.
Thats the kind of thing you could do with christian okoye in Tecmo Bowl.
b22-
you and I are going to have to agree to disagree-
I grew up in a time that makes now look pretty lame-
assassinations, race riots, cults (Manson, Jim Jones . . .), radicalism (Jane Fonda in North Vietnam!), nuclear arms race, threat of nuclear war, violent demonstrations, oil embargo, gas rationing, price controls-
you would think the world was going to end . . .
people were vocal and angry and violent
that's way it was- and I didn't think much of it-
so hearing the likes of Thor and his "cadre" of hand holders- talking about "hate" talk-
they don't know what the fuck they are talking about
@ben22
I've got to talk to Andy about this (Andy, "chime in" if you're reading this), but I started preparing a little snippet on this shooting event that occurred over the weekend...
Andy, I don't want to interrupt your Sunday Post, so we could either combine your material and mine... Or, I'll just wait until later Monday or Tuesday...
I wasn't "hot under the collar" until I started reading all the C-R-A-P that's being spilled over at Ritholtz and other blogs...
I was happily enjoying football...
I hate getting sucked into these kinds of things that only little schoolchildren seem to like flaming about... But I'm going to have to add my two cents anyway...
@ahab/ben22
Look... I can't wait... I'm just going to post what I've been compiling on this subject now and make a jump in the thread...
FUCK this pisses me off... Not because I could give a fucking rats ass about what motivated a shooter... be it...
- Not enough sex
- Too much sex
- One for the road
- None for the road
- The fucking Beatles White Album (played backwards)
- The "Catcher in the Rye"
- Jodie Foster
- Not getting the top score in Donkey Kong
- The fucking "Tetris" song
- Fucking Sarah Palin
- Gay Pride parades in West Hollywood
- Mummers parades in Philly
- Hit parades on Casey Kasem's Top-40
- Jerks who go to too many baseball games and eat too few vegetables
- Wall Streeters blog about rather "making money" than being right
or WTF ever...
Thread will be up in a minute...
Oh... BTW...I AM pissed because the story is distracting me from my Ravens...
ahab,
I'm not really sure we do disagree. As for when you grew up, well, a lot of those same exact types of things have gone on for the last 10 years, and lots of people think the world is going to end. For you, you think today relative to then is just not so bad. That's fine, I wouldn't know since I wasn't around back then.
My larger point though about words don't need to apply to today, they could have just as easily applied to things that were going on when you were growing up. That's all.
b22-
huge difference is that there was much more anti-government violence then-
ask CV- he was around
ahab,
I can't dispute it. My generation has events like 9/11, they impact people in different ways.
@cv
It's the fluoride, the rat poison they put into the water in most cities to numb the average civilians thinking process. We're becoming a nation of zombies through the drinking of fluoride and medications prescribed by big pharma. Do you realize that most prescriptions are probably not needed. Proper nutrition and natural remedies could probably cure more than 1/2 (<-- guess) of peoples ailments.
Most doctors just push prescriptions on their customers... next! I doubt I've ever gone to the doctors office and left without a prescription... sad.
new thread up
Just my 2 cents (on that)...
Or, you can stay on this thread for comments...
To each his own...
@works in gov basement
Flouride...
That must be it... I only drink beer... or, well water from the farm...
CV. Please do post whatever you would like tonight. I'll just add in a simple S&P update to Scribd. You can embed at the end if you want.
I wanted to "go off" on certain folks tonight, but perhaps it would be best if you did that--it's your site bro.
"...Proper nutrition and natural remedies could probably cure more than 1/2 (<-- guess) of peoples ailments.
Most doctors just push prescriptions on their customers..."
that is, no doubt True..
~~
"...From where I’m sitting this thing is going to get all twisted up and into a bunch of things that it should never be about, look for some new massive expansion of the Patriot Act in due time. If you see something, say something..."
for me, too, the above is the concern..
~~
and, obviously, that Marshawn Lynch run was completely Animal.
hadn't seen action like that since Earl Campbell, in tear-away jerseys, was abusing 'Defenses'..
AAIP
KC: Gone fishin'
@Amen Ra (3:43)
LOL... The most sensible thing I've read all day...
Leave it to the caddy (at "the corner" to keep cool about what club to hit into the swirling wind)...
I want to trade like Marshawn runs.
@I-Man
I only hate dreadnecks that are STEELER fans... :-)
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