Five Thousand Dead Blackbirds Had 'Hit Something Very Hard'
Immediately after thinking about 208.33 pies... (5,000 divided by "four and twenty")... I had to laugh reading the comment section on that... Here's one person (who, I'm sure was the same as the person needing therapy in this commercial)...
"I find this almost inconsolably sad... If you want to really feel bad, read "Emptying the Skies" from the July 26, 2010, New Yorker, about the unbelievable devastation of songbird populations in Europe for sport -- aka slaughter -- and food."...
Comment: When you're down to eating catfood, maybe you'll change your tune... YOU JACKWAGON!
Anyway... CV, (the explainer of all things), has come to the rescue with regards to how that mysterious "bird" event should be interpreted (hard landing - hmmmm)... It all comes down to "socioeconomics"... It's a SIGN... The problems with SIGNS though, is that everyone has a different interpretation of them...
Well... I decided to present some various "bird" omen interpretations... Let YOU decide (instead of "telling you how to think" - as they do on other blogs)...
---
Morris Day Version
Alfred Hitchcock Version
E-Trade Baby Version - (he wanted a bird)
Peggy Joseph Version
(Voting for Obama - she thought she was getting a bird in hand - but in reality she was getting TWO BUSHES)
Barry Ritholtz Version
(the best things in life are FREE but you can give them to the "birds & bees" he wants $$)
Tiger Woods Version - Norwegian Wood (This bird has flown)
Birds of a Feather
Birds of a Feather
The Early Bird (always catches the worm)
Mr. Pink Version (from Reservoir Dogs) - "tipping is for the birds"
Lynrd Skynrd Version - Free as a Bird
Bing Crosby Version (A Little Bird Told Me [What to buy] ahead of time)
aka - Sack, Dimon, Blankfein, Gross, Buffett version
Nassim Taleb Version (Rare Bird - aka "Black Swan")
Michael Vick Version (as a "dirty bird" giving the bird)
Family Guy Version - the bird is the word
Keeping Up Diplomatic Relations Version
Explanation to Charlie Version
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EPIPLahykrI&feature=related
CV's Version - Birds-Eye View
Explanation to Charlie Version
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EPIPLahykrI&feature=related
CV's Version - Birds-Eye View
(this may surprise you, but corn don't come from little packets from "Bird's Eye")
Edgar Allen Poe Version - The Raven
---
As for the "Birdbrain in Chief" (seen getting "the bird" here)...
Since it was indeed a "rare bird", to find footage of him actually making a "birdie" on the golf course, instead, we settle for the "killing two birds with one stone" version...
Obama Said to Consider William Daley for Top White House Post
EXCERPT:
"Barack Obama is considering naming William Daley, a JPMorgan Chase & Co. executive and former U.S. Commerce secretary, to a high-level administration post, possibly White House chief of staff, people familiar with the matter said..."
Comment: Yup, more Chicago crony-ism, coupled with corporate pocket lining, that pretty much "kills two birds with one stone"...
But don't fret, as with all things, this too will eventually pass... There is a time and purpose for everything under heaven...
THE BYRDS will tell you...
Byrds - Turn, Turn, Turn (aka - Ecclesiastes 3[1-8])
Bonus Ecclesiastes (Chapter 1)
1 The words of the Preacher, the son of David, king in Jerusalem.
2 Vanity of vanities, saith the Preacher, vanity of vanities; all is vanity.
3 What profit hath a man of all his labour which he taketh under the sun?
4 One generation passeth away, and another generation cometh: but the earth abideth for ever.
5 The sun also ariseth, and the sun goeth down, and hasteth to his place where he arose.
6 The wind goeth toward the south, and turneth about unto the north; it whirleth about continually, and the wind returneth again according to his circuits.
7 All the rivers run into the sea; yet the sea is not full; unto the place from whence the rivers come, thither they return again.
8 All things are full of labour; man cannot utter it: the eye is not satisfied with seeing, nor the ear filled with hearing.
9 The thing that hath been, it is that which shall be; and that which is done is that which shall be done: and there is no new thing under the sun.
10 Is there any thing whereof it may be said, See, this is new? it hath been already of old time, which was before us.
11 There is no remembrance of former things; neither shall there be any remembrance of things that are to come with those that shall come after.
12 I the Preacher was king over Israel in Jerusalem.
13 And I gave my heart to seek and search out by wisdom concerning all things that are done under heaven: this sore travail hath God given to the sons of man to be exercised therewith.
14 I have seen all the works that are done under the sun; and, behold, all is vanity and vexation of spirit.
15 That which is crooked cannot be made straight: and that which is wanting cannot be numbered.
16 I communed with mine own heart, saying, Lo, I am come to great estate, and have gotten more wisdom than all they that have been before me in Jerusalem: yea, my heart had great experience of wisdom and knowledge.
17 And I gave my heart to know wisdom, and to know madness and folly: I perceived that this also is vexation of spirit.
18 For in much wisdom is much grief: and he that increaseth knowledge increaseth sorrow.
---
The simplest version of all, though, is sometimes best... Go Ravens! To Win the Superbowl (beat Falcons) (could it be that easy)???
---
In case it's another one of those "no volume", "another triangle", MOMO days on Wall St... The thread wouldn't be complete without giving you a chance to follow Tony's odyssey (from above)... Plot giveaway - His abandoned son "Lil Pete" ends up selling coke ON WALL ST. to brokers & their hookers... See for yourself...
AMERICAN POP (Part 7)
AMERICAN POP (Part 8)
AMERICAN POP (Part 9)
---
192 comments:
Meanwhile...
From Yahoo Finance:
Top Stories
Interior allows some suspended drilling to resume- AP
The Obama administration said Monday it will allow 13 companies to resume deepwater drilling without any additional environmental scrutiny, just months after saying it would require strict reviews for new drilling in the wake of the BP oil spill.
...I may think of this Obama neophyte as The Gunslinger...shoot from the hip and decide if I hit what I was aiming at later...as Bugs Bunny would say,"What a maroon!"
and for Ben22:
http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-20027090-503544.html?tag=stack
January 3, 2011 5:57 PM
National Debt Tops $14 Trillion
...I thought this was one of those double entendre sentences:
"That would be the first default in history caused purely by insanity," said Goolsbee of plans to block an increase in the Debt Ceiling.
...or default later as debt becomes our death angel...
and for CV:
http://www.foxnews.com/us/2011/01/03/apnewsbreak-suspended-boys-shelter-death/?test=latestnews
PHILADELPHIA – Two family caseworkers have been suspended after a 2-month-old boy starved to death at a Philadelphia homeless shelter.
Tanya Williams, 32, is charged with murder in last month's death of her son, Quasir Alexander. Police, though, say they are exploring whether criminal charges should be filed against any social-service workers involved with the family.
You needen't click on to this link... CV is just putting these up here so as to SAVE all these articles about how the "recovery" is "picking up" so that I can remember the names of all the people involved...
It's like my own "CLOUD"
Dollar Rises 2nd Day on Signs U.S. Economic Recovery Picking Up
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-03/dollar-rises-versus-yen-euro-as-manufacturing-index-increased-in-december.html
@BinT
The Obama administration said Monday it will allow 13 companies to resume deepwater drilling without any additional environmental scrutiny, just months after saying it would require strict reviews for new drilling in the wake of the BP oil spill.
---
So help me out here... is that more akin to:
"Voting for it before you voted against it"
or
"Just signing it so we can see what's in there"
Italian Banks Wage `War on Cash' as Consumers Pass on Plastic
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-03/italian-banks-declare-war-on-cash-as-consumers-pass-on-using-credit-cards.html
This is so true (in Italy)... CV remembers his first "contract" in Italy... $30,000 and the company, at the end, just pulled it out of a safe and laid it right there on the table...
Frankly - I'm more inclined to believe we'll go to a MORE cash society than a less cash as troubles mount...
But don't listen to me...
Nickles bitchez! Cu $4.46 this morning
I couldn't help myself but laughing here...
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/01/back-in-the-saddle-3/#comment-479982
Comment: "Barry, you are rich and intelligint (a rare combination at Wall Street)."
---
I agree... Barry is "RICH" and "INTELLIGINT"...
Some also might add "ARROGINT" to that mix...
ROR
But his blogeteers are the "most intelligintist" of all...
Either that, ot they're the "worst typ(e)sts-ez"...
And C'MON MAN BR... If you're going to do a "Back in the Saddle" thread...
You gotta headline with this for crying out loud!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nY72dQl_HmU
What's with the beatdown on gold? Was is too close to its recent highs? Profit taking? Margin calls? The insane belief that the economy is recovering?
I see the push to raise our debt limit is primary now. Should've known that was coming.
Gold has the first confirmation of a bearish harami in a long time. Must be desperate.
@Amen
I remember gold hit a wave peak high in March '08 (right about the time of the Bear Stearns debacle)...
Equities held on until about May... then we all know what happened...
Maybe some more "golden parachutes" are being outfitted...
Soon... the US (and ROW) will need a bailout...
Maybe the Martian central bankers will step in...
Extra-Ordinary Morning Audibles you linked together up there, CV.. loved it; will have to revisit... laughing.. afraid to turn on my streaming quotes.. breakouts everywhere? time to join the party? GS is probably the no brainer.
@karen
There will be an essay test at the end of the week... (right after the MOST IMPORTANT NFP NUMBER OF ALL TIME comes out)...
Your study guide can be found here...
http://www.cliffsnotes.com/
Good morning all! CV -- thought of you yesterday as middle child was finally indulged in her desire to make homemade bread. About 1/3rd of the way through, she deserted me, saying that it was both too hard and boring. Around the time of the 3rd knead, I started pondering how little bread we would eat if not only did we have to make it this way, but if we had to grow our own wheat and grind our own flour too. On the bright side, celiac disease runs in the family, so it might be a positive dietary change.
Re Ark blackbirds -- did you see that thousands of dead fish washed up in the same town yesterday?
And to think...my major local environmental concern was the unnatural cluster of nut allergies in my two block area.
Gold gave a nice fake-out yesterday, huh?
I have slumbered through the long winter.
I am hungry.
I will be fed.
@Jennifer (9:57)
Don't like "kneading"?... I suggest you try this recipe...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YX_6l2bmvQI
I literally just pulled a loaf like this out of the oven (dough I started yesterday)...
Follow the recipe and it always comes out just perfect...
This is more "Italian" style bread though... Perfect for "Bruschetta"...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nCC1d52o-rI
Ritholtz would probably spend $50 a plate for that...
...and BRAG about doing it!
This is the Deep Dive I discussed with Jamie.
Clavadista d'Oro™ y Clavadista d'Argento™
Obama would spend $100 a plate for it...
And the "basil" that went in the bruschetta would be "from MOMO's White House Garden" (grown while she was in Spain)...
But they'd have to PAY $1MM to have the fresh basil "flown in" to Hawaii to be prepared by paid chefs...
And, of course, a new BASIL & CIABATTA czar would have to be appointed... It may become a new cabinet post...
Maybe we're moving on to PANTRY positions in this Administration...
I can't even look at ZH today..
I'm sure conspiracy theories abound.
Profit taking, bitchez !!
You did say PANTRY, right, CV?
Here you have it: Dow 13k in 2011
http://247wallst.com/2011/01/02/djia-2011-best-targets-imply-djia-13042-bac-csco-xom-ge-hpq-intc-jpm-mcd-mrk-pfe-pg-wmt-dia-vz/
Take a look at FXA and EWA this morning.
All is not well Down Under.
China sneezes, Australia gets very sick.
gold looks like it is making a triangle, it would seem there is at least a squiggle higher left in it
here is our favorite word, unexpectedly, again : )
BloombergNow
Orders to U.S. Factories Unexpectedly Increased in November
http://bit.ly/hSZCLi
zerohedge, Put-To-Call Schizophrenia: Three Month High Followed By Three Month Low, A Never Before Seen Event
http://bit.ly/evXtUR
Commodity volatility usually precedes equity volatility.
Beware the Ides of March?
Some of the drop in gold may be fear ahead of:
1) FOMC minutes might cite "improving conditions"
2) A reasonably firm employment report
3) Renewed concerns about Chinese/Indian inflation
4) Stronger dollar as a result of 1) and 2) and 3)
@karen
"Dow 13k in 2011"
That makes PERFECT sense with BDI at its lowest level since 2009
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/baltic-dry-plunges-45-lowest-level-2009
Must be all that CASH ON THE SIDELINES... (or inventories on the shelves, as the case may be)...
Is the Bernank afflicted by some kind of malady in which he derives sexual pleasure out of making a joke out of capital markets?
would seem a lot of people are trying to call a top in gold, even at zero hedge
good luck with the widowmaker, it's a hard trade right now, but could be very profitable if you nail it.
Still, the bull market in the pm's might have several more years to run.
Crude seems to be running scared of a rally by Bucky as well. OTOH, the strong performance of short-end Treasuries so far would seem to be sending a different message. POMO only in TIPS today.
The 5y5y TIPS spread is still relatively restrained here at 2.09%, and the 2y at 59 bps isn't exactly screaming economic recovery. The front end is safe in the medium term b/c of POMO but would you really want to be in that tomorrow morning ahead of a potentially decent jobs report? A long end POMO tomorrow should ameliorate the damage to the 30y but I would want no part of Treasuries here just yet.
http://www.housingwire.com/2011/01/04/annaly-capital-raises-1-3-billion-to-buy-mbs
True. The widowmaker can be exceptionally sharp, so once it's out of the scabbard one has to be very very careful not to do damage to one's own family jewels.
If there is to be a QE3 then we have not seen the top in the PMs. But after going up every day for the last millenium, a deep dive at some point is not entirely out of the question.
Crude Oil
89.32
-2.23 -2.44%
Gold
1384.88
-30.78 -2.17%
CRB Index
328.06
-4.96 -1.38%
Corn 612.0 -8.5 -1.37
Soybeans 1369.0 -10.0 -0.72
30yr Bond 121.53125 +0.03125 +0.03
10yr Note 120.171875 -0.265625 -0.22
NY Gold 1384.1 -38.8 -2.74
NY Silver 29.930 -1.195 -3.90
http://www.ino.com/
finally, getting some relief on the 'MMods end..
that ~330+ CRB was looking way stretched(up)..
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/index.html?s=NYBOT_CR&t=&a=&w=&v=d12
thinkin' we could see sub-320 pretty easily..
AAIP
another great KD post: I made a comment about how I wasn't a fan of extend and pretend and abandoning mark to market, and this guy told me, verbatim, "If we had to mark to market we'd be bankrupt." My jaw, literally, dropped. Dude - if you want me to come work for you, especially in a trading capacity, that's not the kind of thing you tell me. Especially since I come from a background trading instruments which were always marked to market daily (equities, options, futures).
http://fridayinvegas.blogspot.com/2011/01/insider-trading-revisted-again-if-we.html
Too Many Bulls Make a Bear
By Steve Sears
Don’t be sore. Buy some more. This is the general mood on Wall Street as the new year starts amidst much bullish exhortation.
Hww bullish? CNNMoney surveyed 32 stock experts - whatever that means. They expected a 2011 average gain of 11%. As UBS‘ Art Cashin told clients in his morning note: “In fact not one of the 32 thought the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index might close down on the year. That gives you a little bit of a chill.” And, it also highlights a major risk to the market.
anyone loading up on NLY today for the 14+% dividend now that they've diluted a bit but can surely keep paying the div with their new stash of cash..
don't forget to buy GovMo while you are at it.. surely it is going to top yesterday's high..
but safest bet is GovS, that's GovernmentSachs.. especially on a breakout of 174..
MBS are down substantially in the last few weeks as long end rates have risen, so raising cash to buy more here is probably a smart move. That being said, we like to acquire our dividend stocks like NLY on broad sell-off days when everyone is throwing the toys out of the pram, as that has generally provided the best value.
The yield on NLY is still substantially higher than GLD.
Commercial Paper Contraction: ...and as of the latest published period, commercial paper outstanding has fallen to a new series low (data tracked back as far as 2001) dropping 17.18% on a year-over-year basis to $969.00 billion, a level that is notably lower than even the worst periods of the last two recessions.
http://paper-money.blogspot.com/2011/01/outstanding-contraction-commercial.html
Commodity sell-off has stalled. NYMEX action could be quite interesting as we get closer to the 2pm FOMC release. If they were to say something about reviewing future bond purchases, then the reflation trades will continue to take a bath. But I doubt they will change the tone.
I enjoyed the short and limited wunsa/Andy T commentary on comparisons.
I thought about it all day yesterdayy in fact.
In the end, the amount of time we devote to this stuff is moronic (me included) seeking these explanations for differences between nations, why we are good and they are bad or vice versa. If we cared to really look we'd find reason to doubt whether the differences even existed in the terms described.
A simpler way, as that einstein cat used to say
Information is not Knowledge
We are happy not to be involved in this market, the story of which can only end badly:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-04/women-prefer-bonds-investors-left-with-world-s-lowest-return-japan-credit.html
also, quickly wanted to share this, hope it brings a smile to some of you as it did for me:
got this email from Wells Fargo Advantage Funds today:
At this time last year, some economists were predicting a double-dip recession. When this didn't happen, our chief strategists weren't surprised. In last year's Outlook, they wrote that leading indicators suggested "continued growth, rather than renewed recession, in 2010." Find out what they think today's indicators may mean for the economy and the equity and bond markets in 2011.
so, I clicked the "read it now" option to see their "forecast" and damned if they weren't bullish! lol. But, I want you to all see the reasons why:
http://www.wellsfargoadvantagefunds.com/portal/site/wf/menuitem.9db02bc839b085cc9d37ce108ab667a0/;jsessionid=r8wQNjKSNFvvyGdl2QYRGkGlMfdXfkB8j2hdsSLkXlxSFP9sLWGP!-1119682200?contentid=e8b8292a3e41d210VgnVCM100000a86b760aRCRD
You see there are three main things that make them bullish:
1. The Fed
2. The tax cuts
3. Cash on the sidelines
So, there is a call today if any of you want the number just let me know, I mean, with this kind of non-consensus insight I'm sure you'd all love to be ne it, these are such unique ideas I'm thinking they are the only people on the street to have spoken them in public.
*Take note of the taunting being done by Wall Street toward bears now, its being done by every big MF shop in their 2011 outlook papers.
Peak Bear Taunting = Cue big -time Distribution
It's getting late in the rally. Expect calls from clueless relatives who think it's safe to get back in the water. (Cue the music from Jaws).
Once Bucky rallies, you're going to need a bigger boat.
I am a bit concerned that they are pushing dividends so hard here, with the SPY yield as low as 1.785%, who are they kidding? I wouldn't buy ANYTHING with put/call ratios where they are now. Better opportunities are ahead.
@ben22
"Information is not Knowledge"
Both Knowledge ("he that increaseth knowledge increaseth sorrow")...
&
Foreign Relations
are discussed in the above topic thread...
---
Cv likes to take a simpler approach to knowledge... The moment of TRUE realization comes when you contemplate the ultimate reality of:
"Thou who smelt it dealt it"
ben.. that's great, thanks !!
The FED would love to give the consumer a little breather here by getting gas prices down a bit, no? They must have learned their lesson from the 2008 crude spike that you have to pop the bubble early before it grows to mammoth proportions. The side effect of popping commodities here is that they can hose down the annoying gold bugs and help China a little bit with their inflation problems so they can keep this Ponzi running.
I am falling at last. I have a PhD in economics, you know.
COPPER FUTURE (USd/lb.) 438.550 -7.200 -1.62% 11:29
Bloomberg: Lumber Futures Rise to Highest Price Since May 2006 http://ow.ly/2brTUU
Good morning to leveraged precious metal longs.
I have missed you.
Some girls just can't resist looking at lumber.
i am fascinated with the GS-Facebook deal.. 2 good links if you are interested as well:
http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2011/01/04/facebook-goldman-loser-ipo-industrial-complex/
http://www.businessinsider.com/why-the-sec-will-force-facebook-to-go-public-2011-1
one of my little sisters came to visit for a few hours on Sunday, so it comes up that this bus-boy at the place she works at from time to time in Philly is somewhat of a market guru.
Busboy has been telling everyone there how he's been "making tons of money" the last few months in the precious metals and stocks, my sister described him as "really smart" and people there are listening to him and he knows "all this stuff"
I just sat and listened, my sister doesn't have a nickel to speculate with so I don't worry about her getting sucked in, but I did laugh a little bit on the inside.
Everyone is an expert it would seem. Leads to me do some more thinking
1. We are about to enter the blow-off speculative phase in the pm's, the way all the greatest bull markets end, and it's usually the biggest stage where 'everyone knows'
or
2. PM's are going to pound some people into the ground first to shake out the bus-boy traders.
I don't know which it's going to be and I've given up speculating on the metals. I think as long as guys like the Wizard exist it's rational to own some physical gold and silver, but you know, we may have some different reasons for why we do so, and might be smart to think about when and how we buy those pm's given the moods right now. I wondered, for example, if this bus-boy gave much thought to how he was buying his Pm ETF's with dollars, what a dollar is, or how, exactly, SLV has been able to get all the physcial they'd need to now have in storage as a result of the buying interest, annoying little details I realize.
HYG.. a dbl top?? or on its way to a breakout?
my latest email:
4.1% Fixed Rate
for 3 Months OR
7.9% Fixed Rate
for 360 Days
on Your Tulving Company Bullion Purchase
We Loan 75% on Spot!
HYG.. a dbl top?? or on its way to a breakout?
Care for a wager? We will be taking some off and trimming back to our core position of 15%, especially if it keeps on going up as the economic euphoria continues. But we think it consolidates sideways as we digest a few more data points.
Megaphones anyone???
NEW CHART IN THREAD
Bloomberg News
Exclusive: #Moynihan Fights Fires at Bank of America Amid Book-Value Doubts - http://ow.ly/3y5h7
fantastic.. CV.. excellent view..
http://www.businessinsider.com/meet-facebooks-soon-to-be-billionaires-2011-1
and guess who will manage their wealth?
karen,
re: top step video yesterday
first the move was attributed to the PPT, but then there was the comment about how there "are only buyers in the pits"
it's not both, but either way, I saw this movie a few times before, and I know how it ends, the ending is usually swift and scary, so a lot of people end up "watching it again", if you catch my drift. Lets rally to mid month and see what happens then.
JFTFGSD..
also, just got the JPM e-mail, are you ready for this crew!
it was basically the exact same letter as the one from Wells Fargo
get right out of town
you think aapls cheap at $330? GS @ $172 is dirt cheap.. no brainer.. ask ben.. ben22 or benb.. lol
Ben @ 12:16.. so glad you watched that.. interesting comments.. and of course, i do so agree with you..
BTW, LB, i have this one already..
Our DF position is up 19%. We are done trading that at the moment. In fact we are not adding any new equity longs until we see a decent correction. Fixed income looks much more attractive at these yields.
LOL.. just received a journelle email.. "Give 2011 a fresh start... from the inside out"
If I could ever find my camera, I promise a new avatar.. : )
zerohedge
Is it too early to introduce WiFi enabled Dutch tulips to the FaceBook fans?
We are holding our positions firm as we await the new avatar.
excuse me, i meant JBTFGSD, above..
anon, tiny tho it/they may be.. rolling my eyes..
hating myself for not buying DUST yesterday and my FAZ order didn't get filled by a penny.. oh well!
a funny one.. especially the last point:
http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2011/01/04/five-reasons-why-im-not-buying-facebook/
http://www.forexlive.com/156822/all/cnbc-touting-big-gold-put-buying
http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2011/01/04/wilmington-trust-ceo-forfeits-2-million-in-tarp-clawback/
"The news wasn’t all bad for Mr. Foley. The bank disclosed in the same regulatory filing that it upped his annual base salary on Dec. 1 from about $1.2 million to $1.5 million."
"hating myself for not buying DUST yesterday and my FAZ order didn't get filled by a penny"
We hate it when you don't get filled. The miners are indeed being DUSTed today. Timely discussion on AUD and the small Aussie miners yesterday !!
"anon, tiny tho it/they may be.. rolling my eyes.."
It's not just the size of the position, it's the timing of the entry.
A great day for us to have put the right shorts on....
"The news wasn’t all bad for Mr. Foley. The bank disclosed in the same regulatory filing that it upped his annual base salary on Dec. 1 from about $1.2 million to $1.5 million."
The looting continues unabated. How much longer?
CV, the signs continue:
http://www.businessinsider.com/500-more-dead-birds-fall-from-sky-in-lousiana-2011-1
Scott Bleier
$$ A nice little buy program has been running out of Chicago for the last few minutes--and the market is very thin..
@ben22
"also, just got the JPM e-mail"
---
I spend my days on GUITAR HERO... Honing my skills for the day that notes will call this into existence...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fZ1N9oNHNgE
CV,
nice, I got Metallica GH for a present this year, it's awesome.
@karen
Mandatory reading is that, when given time, you drink a few glasses of wine and go thru the entire thread of today...
There's a lot in there... :-)
I am a Guitar Hero god.....
Just sayin'.
@ben22
CV <3's GH & Rock Band!
It's a "Man Cave" necessity!
I think I may have mentioned it before but check out the movie The Town
It's a long flick but I thought it was very cool.
karen said...
don't forget to buy GovMo while you are at it.. surely it is going to top yesterday's high..
January 4, 2011 11:21 AM
...K,
I understand 25% of all Volt orders are from the government..since they own it...but they do the same thing with the USPS against privately owned FEDEX and UPS.
Ben,
Watched True Grit last night...thought it was much superior to the original.
The Coen brothers got game...
K,
I am available today. Do you want to JBTFD?
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-04/lumber-futures-drop-in-chicago-from-highest-price-in-more-than-four-years.html
I'm pretty effin good at GH as well, but I play guitar also so maybe not fair.
I'm not as good though as the little kid Ben that is all over utube, iow, I can't beat through the fire and flames on expert, though most songs on expert are no problem.
Do not short this next pivot high...
Bruce,
the previews of that movie look really good, I would like to see it, I want to see The Fighter also, heard that was really good.
Steve Sears
The Smart Money Girds for a Drop in Stocks http://on.barrons.com/dFbBIO
A year in nine pictures http://econ.st/fFc2Ve #economist
And heed the Marty, I've posted this before, but it is even more important now.
http://www.martinarmstrong.org/files/So%20You%20Thought%20Stocks%20Only%20Go%20Up%20in%20Boom%20Times%2010-31-2010.pdf
@Andy T (1:12)
"You're pretty good my son... But let me show you how it's done"
You're not a GUITAR HERO GOD until yout take me down from 5:06 to 5:36 here...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m8-CY32tg20
That was supposed to be "Steve Ouimette" saying that :-)
Ben,
I thought True Grit was one of the 10 best movies I've every seen. If you liked Unforgiven, you cannot fail to like this..
damn typinng gremlin put a y on my ever..
also, re gh and then I gotta roll again
I admit I did one "for you for me" gift for my wife this year getting her a Rock Band game since it had, "nelly furtado and no doubt on it so I figured you'd like it"
my wife just laughed, she knew I was full of it.
ben, i got one of those.. my son bot me aapl tv.. LOL
oh, boy, we are going to rally now! Breaking News !!!
IRS extends filing deadline for taxes to April 18
http://on.msnbc.com/gt4ykH
Scott Bleier
$$ Equity index buy program running since 12:45. Now 1:15 and getting bigger
O C'mon Man!
http://compare.smh.com.au/term-deposits?s_rid=smh:affiliatestrip:content0
The latest CD rates. Wonderful, aren't they?
...just one small problem.
...US in 2011?
http://www.businessinsider.com/david-stockman-hank-paulson-reaganomics-tarp-2011-1
The interesting thing is that the yellow metal is being taken out back and soundly spanked while BUCKY is not doing much of anything. Today's big sellers of gold may be the British as the GBP is up big today.
Now imagine what happens tomorrow if we get a decent jobs number and BUCKY actually gets up off the mat.
Just sayin'.....
forgot to post this:
http://www.hedgeaccording.ly/2011/01/vix-sonar-report-another-call-spread.html
CV,
this guy Kanye said once
she couldn't afford a car so she named her daughter Alexus
not quite as cool as "mayonnaise color benz I push miracle whips" but it's up there.
That said, who wrote that rant? We have to ban certain commercials now so certain other people aren't offended.
pffft......
Goldfinger is taking it on the chin today but Mr Bond might also be in line for a whupping tomorrow...
On the economy...
I still want to get paid in Euros. Or gold.
AFIATBL,
Oh could it be, that the metals are the carry to be unwound?
You know I'm lite on the macro...
Dont forget, FOMC minutes in 12 min...
http://pragcap.com/the-dumb-money-is-bullish
Who's he calling dumb?
Dem's fightin werds...
No doubt there be some leverage and some margin in the metals. Our stops are tighter than K's tiniest clothing items as we head into 2pm.
@I-Man (1:48)
The most important FOMC minutes of all time....
@AFIA2BNL (1:42)
The most important jobs number of all time...
@"The dump taker in chief"
The next #2... from you... will be the most important #2 of all time... (alert the media)
speaking of GH, why are those 'instruments' smaller than "typical" Axes ?
AAIP
The Street loves volatility, remember that. They can't pick JOHN E's pocket without generating some ups and downs in the market.
Just have the feeling that some young trading hotshots are about to get a hard lesson in commodity market dynamics. REE and GMO are taking a bit of a beating since the morning....
look at c and bac candles on the day.. maybe there is hope for FAZ yet..
and stupid AIG.. seeing some rollover..
Wonder if the Fed will say easy and accommodative things, and then we will have a monster squeeze in the shiny stuff ? Then if we get a decent jobs number in the morning, the PMs can sell off all over again tomorrow !
Hello all...waiting for hospital to call w/ tomorrow's surgery time so I thought I'd chime in. Re The Town -- imagine the fright my little boy got when he found Daddy in the front hall all dressed up in the scary nun mask and garb...that set potty training back several months right there. It was a big hit in the neighborhood for halloween though. Re Lexi w/ red bows...my mom inquired about that once several years ago...the guy at the dealership told her that the bow alone costs $250, and this was at least 5 years ago. Anyone catch the funny op ed piece on Christmas eve in the WSJ? It was a letter from a 45 year old woman to her father telling him what she/her family wanted for Christmas this year...featured a lexus. It was hysterical. We read it at the dinner table and laughed a lot. I'll try to find a link. I still remember this quote..."Richard's (her husband) not obtuse, woefully unprepared, or negligent, and I don't care what Mom or the State of Pennsylvania has to say about it."
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703886904576031622906282048.html
Tick tock....
Mr Market seems a bit indecisive.
That's cuz no one's at the wheel of this train to crazy town...
I bet Art Cashin is already marinating some ice cubes.
TIP and HYG doing nicely in our fixed income segments today to add to our good day in the Special Situations segment of the portfolio (single names, shorts, leverage, dangerous liaisons and "special situations" allowed here only...).
Well, stops are in, can't do anything about this train to crazy town so I think it's time to grab a bite to eat and see the sun and get a bit of paperwork done until the close.
Looking at the lack of energy in this bounce, I think I would be pretty nervous as a short-term bull here.
Jennifer
Funny article.
The 30 min chart of SPX looks like the bulls found what they were looking for....damn.
Ignore the tag, this is actually a discussion by FX carry traders:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-04/russell-2000-doubling-s-p-500-return-signals-economy-will-drive-2011-rally.html?t=TOP-OK&pos=2
IBM at hod.. break out or fake out.. we will know by the end of the week..
@ Ra
That 30min YM chart at 12:00 est, is the I's favorite long setup...
When you make that trade, you're usually in while most traders are still short, or looking to reload shorts, so I like that edge.
http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2011/01/trading-community-beginning-to-turn.html
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-03/illinois-must-plug-13-billion-deficit-in-days-that-took-years-to-produce.html
Illinois Has Days to Plug $13 Billion Deficit That Took Years to Produce
"The current-year budget deficit of $13 billion is roughly half the size of the state’s general-fund budget. Borrowing to pay bills continues. In November the state sold $1.5 billion of bonds backed by tobacco settlement payments to help pay vendors."
..Can't we just raise taxes by half? Why wouldn't that work?
Don't short the banks/retail. Yet. You don't want to get in front of a hot jobs report, and a steeper yield curve that would result.
http://www.dailyfinance.com/article/unemployment-rises-in-two-thirds-of/595313/
Unemployment Rises in 2/3 of Metro Areas.
http://www.philly.com/philly/wires/ap/business/economic_figures/20110104_ap_unemploymentrisesintwothirdsofmetroareas.html
Unemployment rises in two-thirds of metro areas
The Associated Press
WASHINGTON - Unemployment rates rose in more than two-thirds of the nation's largest metro areas in November, a sharp reversal from the previous month and the most since June.
The Labor Department says unemployment rates rose in 258 of the 372 largest cities, fell in 88 and remained the same in 26. That's worse than the previous month, when the rate fell in 200 areas and rose in 108.
....Tomorrow?????
oops on MCD.. no breakout there..
The failure to squeeze today seems like a bearish sign. A few months ago, whenever we have a modest sell-off like this, Mr Shorty was immediately and rudely greeted by Cold Steel.
Yeah, but a few months ago, equities, commodities, and PM's were rallying together...
Excuse I, meant to say that they were all trading in synch... not just "rallying together".
@karen
MEGAPHONE (from earlier)...
Retest on upper Gann... Held on for a bit... Just failed... Review chart...
there's a little cup and handle forming on ten min faz..
This Guy Thinks Goldman's $50 Billion Valuation Of Facebook Is "Crazy," And He's Sold His Stake $GS by @nichcarlson http://read.bi/eMDcsz
H&S in GG..
you gotta luv these charts..
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/01/long-term-stock-market-growth-1871-2010/
both dow and spx have inv h&S on one day 10min chart..
should be no problem for buy programs to key off that..
Karen
Today the SPX is forming a bearish thrusting which unfortunately is a continuation pattern.
no doubt, AR.. it's a total conviction environment.. what else would we expect?
http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/2010/12/is-gm-back-to-channel-stuffing/
"Tyler Durden over at ZeroHedge reports on the untold story of GM’s increasing delivery numbers: they’re sitting on lots.
Hidden deep in today’s disappointing GM November sales release is a number that all GM longs may want to quickly forget, or else pay serious attention to. But first, earlier today, GM reported slightly disappointing sales numbers: the newly IPOed company sold 168,739 cars in November, a 11.4% increase to November 2009, which came in below expectations of a 13% rise. That’s mostly noise. What isn’t, however, is the linear rise in GM’s auto inventory safely stashed away at dealers, i.e., unsold….
It is obvious that beginning in July, GM has started an aggressive channel stuffing program whereby it offload tens of thousands of cars (over 110,000 since July) on dealer lots, hoping these will get sold somehow, at some price, all the while dealers enjoy taxpayer subsidized floorplan leases which allows them to hold nearly infinite inventory. If and when the liquidation event takes place who cares? After all the company is now public and has managed to massage it artificial sales numbers sufficiently to fool investors that there is actual end demand for its cars."
Just ride the shit.
based on the ibm candle, i guess well experience a huge up day tomorrow..
oh, this ensures it!
http://finance.yahoo.com/video/companynews-18928726/cramer-bofa-could-break-out-23710764;_ylt=Al8oq4f4A3LdiNMLPaQ2iyR4A9AF;_ylu=X3oDMTEzc211b3FpBHBvcwMxBHNlYwN2YXJfbW9kMgRzbGsDY3JhbWVyYm9mYWNv
@I-Man (3:46)
Yeah... Despite the "maestro" attempts at shorting [5:33 - 5:53 of "American Pop #9 above]...
It appears that the cokehead bankers are still drugged out & in charge... (5:54 - 8:10)...
"You'll always find them OUT TO LUNCH & THEY DON'T CARE"....
so many candles.. aapl, cat, gs..
(aapl and gs look the same, btw, lol.. cat is close.. )
later, all..
maybe they are both dummies, but who wants to pass up a debate between Don Luskin and Bob Prechter:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232/?video=1715887020&play=1
also, people keep hyping fund flows, $355 million into funds, lmfa
355 million....this is when you ask that question I'm fond of
Is that big?
We exited half of the widow-maker, as GDX rallied.
Tomorrow will be interesting. We might get a pop in equities on a very strong (or a very weak) ADP, but I am inclined to believe they will fade the move.
A POMO is scheduled for the long bond tomorrow. We would be short of the long bond for a week after that is over, unless the ADP turns out to have been utterly miserable, of course.
"355 million....this is when you ask that question I'm fond of
Is that big?"
It is if you have small hands. I kno, right?
EEXG2 says...
"also, people keep hyping fund flows, $355 million into funds"
L-OMG-LMFAO-IKR?
Trim tabs had the "outflow" in 2010 at $100 billion...
OR
It's like Obama making a "stringent" $1 billion "cut" to some program, then adding a cool 1.5 "trillion" to the deficit (plus interest)...
Kinda, CV...
Its not that I dont care, its that I dont think there is a point to it.
There is what the market is doing, and then there are opinions of what it is doing.
Opinions are extremely dangerous in my line of work, and if anyone is trading off of opinions, then I believe that to be very risky business.
Its different if you are managing a shitpile of money, and you are getting paid for your opinion.
Obviously, given my history, I have had a tough time differentiating between the two, and in my mind, that is why I have managed to lose my own little shitpile of money since I started trading.
Now that I am finally not losing money anymore, these things start becoming more and more clear... but pain is a good teacher, and I-Man is no preacher.
Just like everyone else, trying to make a living.
The best thing that daytrading has done for me is that as a rule I am never against the market. If I find myself in such a position, it is only for a limited time until I take my 7 tick loss on YM, hopefully smaller than that even. Thats cash value of $35 per contract, sounds like a little, but it adds up quick if you are not trading with the market.
If I do that more than three times in a row, I am just being a dumbass and fighting the tape.
I find that most of my problems arise when I come into the day with an idea, or "opinion" of where the market will go, and then fail to let go of that when shown that I should.
There is a fine line between the confidence that having that idea of where price will go can give you, and when that idea starts to be hurtful.
That fine line is the thing that separates most traders into winners and losers.
@I-Man (4:28)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LJ-_-cptIno
The mindset of the day trader and the asset manager must be different, Grasshopper. For an asset manager a one day reversal of his/her major investment theme is no big deal. For a day trader, if you trade against the grain on the day and lose, that is money down the drain.
At our shop we try to combine a little of both philosophies. The Special Situations fund allows us to lose money (hopefully not too much or too often) in a variety of extraordinarily interesting and exciting ways while attempting to hedge our positions and allows us trade from the short side. The importance of this activity is in allowing us to maintain relatively stable and illiquid positions in the unleveraged long-only or cash segments of the overall portfolio. We always have a macro picture in our minds but we obviously are guided by what we see happening in front of us while trading, which allows us to adjust the macro view.
The Bond Report 1.4.11
Another relatively quiet day in the credit markets as bonds took a back seat to the action in commodities. For a second day, spreads were tighter and HY outperformed IG. Treasuries were strong earlier in the day but sold off late after the FOMC minutes. TIPS outperformed vanilla Ts after a POMO in TIPS.
Corpies: LQD 0.13%; AGG 0.03%; JNK 0.30%; HYG 0.45%
Govies: TLT 0.12%; IEI 0.06%; TIP 0.25%
Hedgies: TBT -0.19%
We did nothing. HYG 22% TIP 15% and LQD 3% of our portfolio. No AGG, no TLT.
Tomorrow is a POMO at the long end, but it is also ADP in the morning, so that may be a wash unless ADP is a screamer. At this point, with a POMO behind us tomorrow afternoon and auctions in 10y and 30y ahead next week as well as a PPI number, we would suggest selling strength in TLT, and we may be short to protect our FI against rate risk.
@ AFIATBNL
Maybe we should work together, someday?
:)
I'd be interested to hear comments on the portfolio management style we describe above. What we are saying is that it's OK to take risk and use leverage in your hedging/trading accounts, and you can even lose money, as long as you adhere completely to strict rules over in the unleveraged (long/cash only) sections of the portfolio, where we can keep volatility very low by being mainly in bonds and taking occasional shots in equities from the long side when bonds look especially unattractive (e.g. October and November).
Of course the comment we are expecting to hear is:
YOU ARE FULL OF IT.
I-Man: Leaving aside today's widow-maker success, we could hardly find a worse trader than ourselves. We excel mainly in the fixed income strategy area, where we kicked the Street's ass last year. If only we had sharp-eyed young fighter pilots such as yourself to make some extra dough !!
We do allow that the Mistress is correct in defining HYG/JNK as an ongoing massive game of chicken. However these games of chicken can continue for a long time, and in fixed income, the lower volatility usually means that you have more than ten seconds to plan your exit....
I wish I could comment more on that... my attempts at doing that were fairly disastrous overall, but I suppose some of the discipline I have learned over the past year would help.
I'd imagine that AT, karen, B22, Nic would be good people to discuss this with, because they all trade multiple positions.
That was the tough part for me about "asset mgmt" to the I, its all trades. Its "how should I rank" my trades and allocate accordingly, and then try to hedge the corellations of the different themes I have going.
The original MacroMan made that shit look so easy... I took it for granted when he was still chiming and rhyming.
Now that all I do is daytrade only one thing, I really get to focus on the pure trading part, and less and less of the fundamental/macro corellations.
When I first started I was watching 3-4 fx crosses/pairs, bonds, stocks, cash spx, ES, all the other futes, etc.
Now its just YM and I trade alot better...
go figure.
We also learned a great deal from MM and his mates. Position sizing determines the size of gains/losses and volatility - this was the thing we needed to grasp, and walling off parts of the portfolio for specific activities helped a lot with this. Now we have an area for fixed income, one for dividend-paying stocks, and one for hedging.
If you hold/trade fixed income everything is slowed down a lot, so it is easier to manage multiple "funds" within the overall portfolio. You can't do this with commodities or equities, just way too volatile. Now when we are actively trading, it is one or two instruments and mostly we like to use just a few. TBT, EDC, ERX, TLT calls, are our favorites when we want to enjoy a little leveraged madness.
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