AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection.

Let's settle this in the cage!

Creditcane™: Bears showed up to the party too early. Allowed the bulls to come in the back door and take over.

Spinning top day (confirmed bearish harami). Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1258.84). QE2infinity.

Bullish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Held the 38.2% retrace (80.63). Stayed above SMA(144). Daily 3LB reversal up (reversal is 79.03).

Spinning top day (didn't confirm bullish piercing). Midpoint below EMA(10). Back below SMA(21). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 15.45). Concluded that there might be no escaping the "no fear" zone. Still has a monthly 3LB reversal.

Spinning top day. Still below SMA(55). Midpoint below EMA(10). 0.0% retrace holding. Well below 14.6% retrace (1392.69) and again tested the 23.6% retrace (1368.14). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 1378.80). Must have the precious.

Bearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Below its 38.2% retrace at 1.3121. Below all SMA's. Daily 3LB reversal down (reversal is 1.3395). Also had a weekly 3LB reversal down.

Bearish long day (confirmed taker). Midpoint above EMA(10). Failing the Gann 4x1. Back below SMA(21) & SMA(89). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 40.47). It was working on closing that huge gap BUT may have run out of steam…yup.

Bearish long day (confirmed bearish harami). The 0.0% fibo retrace at 35.66 has held. Back below SMA(21). Still above its 14.6% retrace (33.86). Midpoint above EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 32.36). Failed to hold upper trendline.

Doji day (start of morning star?). Midpoint below EMA(10). Back below SMA(21). No test of 0.0% retrace. New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 332.80). Back below 23.6% retrace and weekly 3LB mid.

Bearish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. No test of new 0.0% retrace. Held the 14.6% retrace (16.20). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 16.01).

Doji day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Below SMA(21) and held SMA(55). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 47.84). December gains are history. JBTFD...


The Imaginary Bond Report 1.7.11

Not too difficult today. It was risk-off all day after the usual NFP non-confirmation of ADP pantomime (look out, the recession is behind you!) so Treasuries and IG were bid and HY was sold across the curve.

Corpies: LQD 0.50%; AGG 0.32%; JNK -0.50%; HYG -0.38%
Govies: TLT 0.53%; IEI 0.51%; TIP 0.32%
Hedgies: TBT -1.17%

We sold a chunk of TIP today, mainly to raise cash that we will put to work after the 10y/30y auctions. Ahead of that we are short the long end by 16% of our portfolio. We continue to hold 22% HYG, 3% LQD and now 10% TIP. So we are moderately hedged against rate risk for now. (In a strictly delusional kind of way, obviously...) Looking forward, we will plod along until we see outstanding opportunities to get into Treasuries if things continue to get exceptionally frothy in equities and high yield in the face of the recoveryless recovery.


Anonymous said...

Matthew said...

Amusing anon:

"The toughest schedule in the Big Ten, per Sagarin: Minnesota, at No. 38, at least in some part because its numbers weren't dragged down by having to play Minnesota."

karen said...

good evening! glad i could provide some fodder for debate in last post.. sorry to ruffle some feathers..

ben, you won't see this probably, but perhaps.. over our scrumptious raclette and herb roasted potatoes my older son asks if I heard about the philosophy professor that got hedge fund of the year.. blah blah.. I said, oh, you mean, Brownstein? did you watch the interview? he talked about copernicus and didn't answer one question nor indicate where he thot rates were going.. Wilder went bonkers.. said i had to send him the interview.. philosophers always bring up Copernicus in that way.. so I will get his take shortly.. cannot wait.. he also taught me the correct pronunciation of exogenous.. LOL! you see, the time, attention and $$$ you lavish on an offspring pays off nearly as much as on a cat!

I-Man said...

K, you could never ruffle the I's feathers...

That Scott Whatshisname guy, different story.


wunsacon said...

Guys, with Bernanke saying "the recovery seems to be gaining traction", do you think he's signaling "first rate hike" to the market?

I think he'll want to do that, because he knows he has to slow down the rise in commodity prices.

ben22 said...


I won't bother to link the chart here again which shows as much because I've already done so 50 times but the Fed doesn't set interest rates, the market does, for over a decade now they have followed the 90 day t-bill rates.

on another note, who says that raising rates is going to stop commodity prices from rising? I just pulled up another trusty chart of oil from 03-07, it revealed, oil up.....rates up. Strange huh?

When you chart, you can put to rest all kinds of traditional wall street wisdom, you should try it some time.

exogenous cause model, it just doesn't pay....

and sorry to constantly be the party pooper on the "they" party.

McFearless said...


that's true about cats, I think it's the one thing I have in common with Krugman.

CV said...

new thread

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