Morning Audibles 7.14.10 - Storm the Bastille

Let's STORM THE BASTILLE! (18th century version of "let's TORCH THE JOINT")...






I suppose it would be rare for something like that to occur nowadays... After all, it wasn't so much intellectual "dissatisfaction" that prompted a revolution, it was HUNGER...


During the reign of Louis XVI, France faced a major economic crisis...


There are ample volumes of history written about the events which led to the eventual FLASHPOINT(S)... The "Storming of the Bastille" being actually the 3rd in the sequence (Interestingly, the Bastille, a prison, only held 7 prisoners at the time, but it it what it "represented" (peasants vs. royalty) that made it important... Factually though, it was more STRATEGIC in that it housed an arsenal of weapons (which is really what the mobs were after)...


During the public demonstrations that started on 12 July the multitude displayed busts of Necker and of Louis Philippe II, Duke of Orléans. The crowd clashed with the Royal German Cavalry Regiment ("Royal-Allemande") between the Place Vendôme and the Tuileries Palace. The Royal commander, Baron de Besenval, fearing the results a blood bath amongst the poorly armed crowds or defections amongst his own men, withdrew the cavalry towards Sèvres. Meanwhile, unrest was growing among the people of Paris who due to their hostility against the Fiscal Legislation of State's Farmers, started attacking customs posts blamed for causing increased food and wine prices. The people of Paris started to plunder any place where food, guns and supplies could be hoarded. The next day, on 13 July, rumours spread that supplies were being hoarded at Saint-Lazare, a huge property of the clergy, which functioned as convent, hospital, school and even as a jail. An angry mob broke in and plundered the property, seizing 52 wagons of wheat which were taken to the public market. That same day multitudes of people plundered many other places including weapon arsenals. The Royal troops did nothing to stop the spreading of social chaos in Paris...


With 40,000,000 Americans on FOOD stamps (that's about 1 in 9 as you stand in a checkout line and look around you), at least most are getting FED (which is why they're not FED UP, yet)... Likely, that same one that is getting fed in this manner is banging out text messages to their friends on an electronic device that requires a vast array of microchips to get the message from one tomato can, through the string, and to another tomato can...


Of course we, like, know, like, OMG, that like, that message, is like, sooooooooooo important... We probably also know that those devices are going to be like, totally ancient  in like, 6 months, and like, OMG, it would be so like, embarrassing to have anything but like the most rad new model...


So this little fable is CV's "feeble" attempt to connecting the events of July 14th, 1789 with INTC's "record" quarter (and how to understand that, and QUANTIFY it in the slow motion train wreck that is the American economy)... Ironically, one of the reasons that the French economy was so bad back in that time was because of the money it lent to the United States in its war of independence from the British Empire...


More well spent capital...


Retail sales coming up at 8:30...


Let's see how OTHER "geniuses" are spending their capital (and/or PHD's "cooking books" to make it appear as if it's being spent wisely)...



386 comments:

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McFearless said...

retail sales WTE, but BTE on the core!

lol.

how typical that's the message

AmenRa said...

Retail sales -0.5%. Consumers staying put. Even though the number of stores has decreased they still couldn't improve the metric.

McFearless said...

Elizabeth Warren states that while the majority of big banks have paid back TARP money, while small banks have paid it back in only 10% of cases while 15% have already missed a dividend payment.

Saved the system?

Sure it did.....

CV said...

All I have to say is WTFF????????

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a2tgfU28f4Rg&pos=5

Romer Says U.S. Stimulus Spurring $280 Billion of Investment

Excerpt:

Romer: “The Recovery Act appears to be stimulating private investment and job creation at a time when the economy needs it most,” Christina Romer, chairwoman of the Council of Economic Advisers, said in testimony prepared for a hearing of Congress’s Joint Economic Committee.

Romer cited the Build America Bond program, which has subsidized interest costs for about $118 billion of local government securities sold to finance public-works projects, and tax credits for companies that invest in plants to build solar panels and wind turbines.

The report says the stimulus has “saved or created” about 3 million jobs, and is moving toward a goal of 3.5 million jobs by the end of the year, according to an administration official speaking on condition of anonymity before the report’s release today.

What effin' planet does Romer live on

Anonymous said...

bob-

from the previous thread-

there is a documentary called Gasland I caught several weeks ago that digs heavily into hydraulic fracturing-

I use gas for home heating- so I guess I can't complain too much- but it appears water supplies are being poisoned in the process of searching for natural gas

I-Man-

elaborate on your 1:32 AM post from the previous thread

CV said...

It's kind of bizarro in the overnight, but you could see it on the STOXX 50 charts that right from the git-go, Europe was weaker...

Most of Europe is still on or near the lows, but it still may turn around before 9:30...

I don't know what to expect at this point... EUR-USD seems to be hanging on ok... There were some HEADLINES that Greek bonds weren't as bas as had feared...

(Oh yeah? then why was the 1 year auction yesterday changed to a 6 month auction?)...

30 year treasuries (US) auction today...

Maybe TPTB want to hold off on too much "risk-on" until that goes through...

Anonymous said...

The report says the stimulus has “saved or created” about 3 million jobs

good thing they put that "saved" word in there- otherwise it would be zero-

in any event- the jobs saved are all public servants working for States and Cities- the private sector-

they're on their own

bob said...

Ahab, No one realizes the scale of what they are planning on doing. They need 5.5 million gallons of water for each well. All the water gets to the drill site by truck(6,000 gallons at a time).

I can't find the breakdown by state, but there are over 40,000 wells possible in NY, and NY is not even where the majority of the gas is.

McFearless said...

CV,

what do you make of the DAX?

CV said...

@McF

Wasn't it you that linked a chart on that the other day...

If I remember...

It looked like it was trapped in a long ED (not rising much, but looking like it has some TIME issues before final completion)...

---

I'm going to say it simply... I think Germany IS going to end up going it alone... I think the EU will dissolve eventually...

But a lot of that seems to be put on hold (if even only a few more months)...

If the damn EUR-USD would just roll over again, but it seems hell bent on getting back to 131-ish...

I sure wish Goldman would come out with a "long Euro" call... That would be the nail in the coffin... :-)

Anonymous said...

bob-

so- if you look T Boone Pickens natural gas plan- think of all the problems caused by increasing natural gas supplies-

reality is- that it's a mess to extract something from underneath the earth-

unfortunately- what are the solutions-

I am clueless on that

bob said...

ahab

I've seen a lot of out there conspiracy stories on t boone. The case can be made that he owns a lot more water than he does gas. The theory is that if he can "get rid" of water competition, he can sell everyone water.

CV said...

The thing that interested me MOST about AmenRa's charts yesterday was the VIX(wink, wink)...

Bullish VIX candle on that same SPX candle?

There are a lot of "crosscurrents" going on here (which are making things sort of confusing at the moment)...

CV's bottom line? (in YOUR parlance)

- I think we're finding the top of "A" (and it'll probably be slightly north of 1100)...
- I think the "B" of that will happen rather suddenly (which will create a tall bullish candle on the VIX the day it happens - possibly near 30)...
- SPX ought to test down near 1060 when that happens...
- I think THAT day will be a "hammer" candle on SPX (closing ABOVE support - maybe around 1070-1075)
- I don't know what day that'll be... Perhaps next week because it seems the market wants to PIN SPY 110 (look at how many OPEX Fridays have closed near that strike in the past year)...
- "C" would take us up near slide 3 on Andy's charts

I'm still trying to balance that last part out mentally (because I'm trying to fit it together with the levels of MONTHLY 3lbs)...

CV said...

@bob @ahab

what are the solutions?

http://www.gemzies.com/img_photos/fire_in_an_wind_turbine_wind_energy_2_29fe50d390c5ac3bced8a74db4de8dbd_490x350.png

Why... WIND ENERGY, of course... see how CLEAN it is?

bob said...

Battle going on in EURUSD and GBPUSD at important levels.

bob said...

One of the first small commercial wind farms was built around here about 10-15 years ago. They had one fall over last year.

wunsacon said...

Ahab, I saw some discussions around "Gasland". Sh**. As someone who regularly chanted "Pickens Plan" the past 3-4 years, I'm discouraged by this unwelcome news.

air is free said...

So now you have your I-pod,
and your I-pad,
you need an Airpod

CV said...

@bob @ahab

Nobody likes much when CV proposed solutions to things...

But think about it...

Want to solve the problem?

LET'S JUST GO BACK TO HUMAN SLAVERY

All the 1 billion fat assed Americans & Europeans can ENSLAVE the rest of the 5 billion people and force them all to do manual labor...

No industrial production...

Either that, or we just all go LOGAN's RUN... 6 billion people all enter a lottery... 1 billion get to survive...

The rest go to the carousel and take their chances...

All I ever hear about (in TV commercials) these days is "LET'S BUILD A SMARTER PLANET"...

The first step in that is to get rid of humans...

CV said...

Speaking of FAT ASSED Americans...

YUM hasn't recovered much, price wise, of it's overnight lows...

And will somebody tell me what CSX was "bragging" about shipments for autos on its trains, then the AUTO portion of retail sales was off 2.3%?

Anybody?

Anonymous said...

@ CV

shipping cars and selling cars are two different things

Anonymous said...

CV-

wind turbines- not against them per se- but last I checked they aren't going to fuel my car- nice idea in theory- but

it's all a pipe dream- clean energy- and you are on to something-

walking and manual labor is pretty clean- environmentally speaking

CV said...

@anon

"shipping cars and selling cars are two different things"

Don't I know! I was being facetious... It was another case in point of the MSM trying to spin happy headlines out of situations that clearly are not good...

Romer (above) case in point...

Anonymous said...

the airpod cracks me up- check out the stylish convertible-

http://www.mdi.lu/english/oneflowair.php

I didn't see how far you could get on a fill up or how fast it goes-

might this be a less expensive alternative? And possibly faster-

http://visualculture09.files.wordpress.com/2010/02/280917-rickshaw-in-delhi.jpg

CV said...

$COMP

Dark cross... But we already knew that...

wunsacon said...

Ahab, there's a *lot* of investment in electric vehicles these days. My wife and I share a single car. We're not buying another vehicle until it's a simple plug-in electric. (I don't like the extra complexity/repairs of the "hybrid" concept.)

Check out this list:
http://www.pluginamerica.org/vehicles/

This is *happening*.

Unfortunately, I gotta wait until the prices come down to us pedestrian consumers...

72bat said...

cv -
re solutions - bingo!
the bottom line is, after all, what is the carrying capacity of any given ecosystem?

Anonymous said...

wunsacon-

keep in mind that charging your car will result in the burning of more coal to generate the electricity to be stored in your car battery

I think CV is onto something actually- in his round about way

72bat said...

wunsacon -
i'm not an engineer-type, so can't even guesstimate, but how much solar-cell capacity would be required to charge up an electric vehicle for say a 80-mile round-trip daily commute, for truly low-carbon footprint transportation?

karen said...

Poor Rosenberg caught my disease,

• The fundamental trendline is still down

morning! still needing coffee.. will attempt to keep my exasperation boxed up today.

CV said...

1089.56 was .009 from 1099.46 (yesterdays high)...

First dip took us to 1089.75...

Most pullbacks (since 1010) have stopped at .009

Let's see if this one's different...

CV said...

Next support might be around 1083...

CV said...

@72bat (9:47)

CV has all the statistics on that... I'll put them up in a minute, but I'm watching the market looking for a trade here at the moment...

karen said...

Dear Short Sellers, it’s me Boockvar, pronounced without the C. Some think I’m Mr. Bear, I prefer Mr. Realist (reflation trade bull in March ‘09). I’m writing now to say...

Leftback said...

Business inventories at 10am.

A sharp uptick in this metric is a sign of slowing business and retail activity, now that the inventory rebuild is complete.

Leftback said...

Tonight's Chinese GDP is more important.

Anonymous said...

Anybody read Yelnick yet today? Good summary of the various EW possibilities out there w/ nice explanation of the running flat. http://yelnick.typepad.com/
-Jennifer

Leftback said...

Inventories unlikely to move market - 0.1%.

McFearless said...

you know it's quite amazing karen, everyone called the bottom in March 09. Peter Boockvar's writings are hilarious imo, this is the guy using comic book prices to measure inflation....

karen said...

Believe it or not, i was dwelling on this in the wee hours last night: The Toxic Debt

Leftback said...

The long end is very strong today and we haven't even had the auction of 30y Ts yet. The dollar usually gains on the afternoon of the 30y auction. Rates are often lower for a few days, enabling the B/Ds to make a profit on their segment of the auction before exiting.

The timing of the PPI and CPI immediately after the long bond auctions can be viewed as not exactly accidental.... likely Ts will be strong all week, and then next week will begin with a MOMO MONDAY as asset rotation occurs out of fixed income into equities.

Leftback said...

Only one pig called the bottom in March 09. DOUG KASS... LOL.

(It helps if you call it nine times).

Jamie Dimon said...

Karen,

What toxic debt? We are holding HIGH VALUE MBS to maturity.

McFearless said...

why do any e-wavers pay any attention to Carl Futia?

This is the guy that was bullish in 08 and bashes e-wave by saying:

"On the other, it offers too much scope for personal prejudice and bias to influence the wave count."

Oh, so e-wave offers too much scope for personal prejudice...comapared to what exactly?

give me a break

no possible way this guy didn't use his own bias to come up with the bullish idea for 2008, nope.

I-Man said...

@ Ishmael 8:43

Drop me a line over at dread and I'll share a bit more w/ you about that.

It would be of interest to you in your business I imagine.

McFearless said...

there is always this push to "see all sides" however, e-wavers using the tool properly should be doing no such thing, the tool eliminates outcomes, and therefore you aren't wasting time. I think it's nice and all that Yelnick shows both bullish and bearish primary counts, but one of the two counts has a nearly 0 probability and the other a very high probability. No two wave structures that are completely opposite are going to have a probability of occurance that is near close.

look, I'd much rather we be in a Primary Wave 3 bull market, my life is simpler in every way possible in bull market, but I'm thinking that I in fact would be the one putting my own bias on the charts in stating that was a five wave move up off the March 09 lows.

Many Thanks to AT for helping me step out of this nonsense of everything needing to be impulse waves either up or down, if you want to take your waves to the next level, learn some X waves....etc.

Anonymous said...

On this day in 1992 I went to the ballet in the theater they built over the site of the Bastille. -Jennifer

McFearless said...

so we are out of the Johnny hour basically break-even.

I have no idea where we are going to be by friday....this is pretty exciting shit right here

Leftback said...

Bastille = 200 West Street? Maybe next year.

karen said...

the candles of $tyx and $tnx line up more perfectly when overlaid on the $spx than the $xad.

I-Man said...

I'm liking this action so far, have a limit buy out there... just patiently waiting, stalking, like a lion.

McFearless said...

in terms of time/number of trading days, lot of fibo activity today that has lined up...could market a short term top, the b wave down and that last push up to the 1150 or higher range...of course I see lots of bulls and bears calling for that outcome.

McFearless said...

Kenny's sentiment, lol:

The Count? Who the heck knows.

Leftback said...

LB would like to see Mr Market take another peek at the KT.
Another kiss of that delightful resistance zone and we get short.

Smelling an afternoon sell-off as the 30y auction approaches.
China may lay an egg in the overnight session, GDP slowdown.

CV said...

Cv's version of... "YEAH! Let's all just drive PLUG IN CARS" Wheeeeee!

- There are 241,000,000 registered vehicles in America (as of 2007)...

- It takes 75-85kw of power to drive (under "normal" driving conditions - that is, assuming you're not Fred Flintstone and use your feet to get your car up to speed before letting the battery power take over efficiently - admittedly, we could all start driving at maximum speeds of 35-40 and halve that number, but go with it for awhile)...

- now multiply that times 2... (because only roughly half of all generated power in the grid ever makes it to a light bulb)...

- My math takes me to 38trillion, 560billion kw... per day... to power all the existing registered vehicles in America for use of one hour under normal driving conditions... Because remember, only half of all the generated electricity will ever make it to the plug in the car...

- That = 38,560,000 megawatts... 1 megawatt (how the "capacity" of power stations are usually rated in terms of generating capacity) = 1 million watts, or 1,000kw...

- The AVERAGE nuclear plant in the US generates around 800-1,000 megawatts... (There are presently 104 operating reactors in the United States - 1/370th of the needs if they all were working FULL TIME and were switched over to sole dedicated use of powering the fleets of vehicles)... Or, we could just build 38,400 more 3 mile islands...

- Coal or Nat Gas?... About 600-700 megawatts per plant...

- Wind? About 1.8 megawatts per turbine... (Why don't we just build 21,500,000 big wind turbines)?

- Solar cells? Roughly 14 watts per square foot of area of cell exposure to sunlight during PEAK full sun hours... Remember - tooling around at 50 mph in your Chevy Volt is going to cost 3,000 watts per hour (and possibly up to 8,000)...

Of course, I haven't even scratched the surface in terms of copper and lithium mining (for all the batteries)...

Nor, the incredible amounts of fresh water it requires to process copper ore...

Do I need to go on people? This is a tiresome exercise for CV...

Anonymous said...

Question re: moving averages. Now that we have rallied back up so high, all price needs to do is move sideways and the MAs will drift down of their own accord, especially the 50 as the pre-flash crash days drop out of the MAs. Any concern that the 50 will start to act as support once reclaimed? Is there a wave count that most of the group is following? Thanks, Jennifer

CV said...

I think the best we get today is a visit down to 1083...

Tomorrow, they'll need to keep the SPY110 strike in vision for the Friday open...

Probably Friday will play out like the June opex Friday (where it hit 1131)... But maybe only 1110 is hit...

Then we can do the B wave pullback next week (possibly 1160's)...

That's the tape I'm HOPING for...

karen said...

singer's $wtic chart -

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_r47sOI__h_M/TDmafrwdTiI/AAAAAAAACHs/IW22q4wzGcg/s1600/sc%5B10%5D.png

and his aapl chart for DL!

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_r47sOI__h_M/TC8g2TxZSXI/AAAAAAAACG8/ABVYN6SXGyo/s1600/sc%5B2%5D.png

wunsacon said...

Why commute to work? There, CV. I just cut fuel demand in half.

2,000 lb vehicles? Cut that in half, too. Carbon fiber everything.

A journey of a thousand miles begins with one step. We have to start this march sometime. Better to do it at a time of our choosing than when we're panicked into it.

Leftback said...

Jennifer

Death Cross is often followed by a reclaim of the 50 DMA, and then a grinding sideways. Think about it, this sucker isn't going Deep South until after Labor Day when the big boys are ready to dump it.

A nice range bound market would be tradeable though.

CV said...

@wunsacon

The weight of putting BATTERIES in a car negates any saved weight from carbon fiber...

Then, when everybody crashes, we'll all BANKRUPT ourselves with litigation costs...

Lawyers get rich though... so that's a plus, right?

I-Man said...

Anyone else noticing alot of cup and handles lately?

karen said...

watching $tyx on the 60 min.. ema(20) just held as it did two days ago. 40.22, the 50 ema, lines up as the power uptrend line from July 1.

I-Man said...

In @ 10302... ride the snake.

CV said...

The idea of ELECTRIC cars preceded the idea of gas powered ones...

The problem isn't HOW TO POWER...

The problem is that industrialized power needs have grown too large...

You can't unscramble that egg... If nothing else, simply because the "monied" interests in keeping the status quo will not allow that to happen...

Maybe we're all driving towards a cliff at full speed (and maybe even THEY know that)... But they're not giving up control of the wheel)...

McFearless said...

"Is there a wave count that most of the group is following?"

I don't think there is Jennifer...the near term count is open to a lot of options imo. I can tell you though that the super bear count looks like its toast at the moment.

Leftback said...

I-Man: Snakes and ladders?

McFearless said...

"Why commute to work? There, CV. I just cut fuel demand in half."

lol, so easy a wunsacon could do it.

If only we could eliminate all the suburbs over- night.

karen said...

Wednesday, July 14th, 2010, 9:57 am
Real estate investment trust (REIT) Annaly Capital Management (NLY: 17.55 -3.89%) expects to have raised $1.1bn of gross proceeds from its public offering of 60m shares of common stock this week.

The company plans to use the proceeds to buy mortgage-backed securities (MBS) for its investment portfolio, and to cover general corporate expenses including additional investments and repayment of short-term indebtedness.

The firm announced the public offering Tuesday afternoon. Annaly granted the underwriters a 30-day option to purchase up to an additional 9m shares of common stock to cover any over-allotments.

http://www.housingwire.com/2010/07/14/annaly-capital-prices-1-1bn-in-stock-to-buy-mortgage-securities

hmm.. "repayment of short term indebtness" sounds like borrowing from peter to pay paul to me. anyway, their stock is down 3.89% today.

karen said...

and speaking of NLY, their latest, A Case Study in Cash

I-Man said...

@ LB

Snakes and Profits... lol

Leftback said...

"repayment of short term indebtness"

kicking can down the road and rolling over debt.

karen said...

perfect post (quoting Hussman) and chart from NLY link:

"As it turns out, in relation to their debt outstanding, corporations are less liquid than they were prior to the recession."

CV said...

"Why commute to work? There, CV. I just cut fuel demand in half."

I've got a solution too...

Why don't we just send 241,000,000 Americans (and their registered vehicles) into the LOGAN'S RUN carousel?

There... I totally fixed the problem...

Mannwich said...

Isn't that all we have left? Rolling over debt until it can't roll anymore? How long can that go? Longer than many of us think? I have to admit, I'm completely clueless right now.

I-Man said...

Anyone get a chance to read that Futurist post about the "Techno Sponge"?

Just wondering what folks thought of that...

http://www.singularity2050.com/2010/07/the-technosponge.html

McFearless said...

From the awful new bloom site:

Released on 7/14/2010 7:00:00 AM For wk7/9, 2010
Actual
Purchase Index - W/W Change -3.1 %
Refinance Index - W/W Change -2.9
Composite Index - W/W Change -2.9


Highlights
In yet another negative indication for the post-stimulus housing market, the Mortgage Bankers Association's purchase index fell 3.1 percent in the July 9 week signaling yet another decline for mortgage applications. The index is at a 14 year low. Applications for refinancing, which have been very high due to low interest rates, slipped back 2.9 percent. Refinancing made up 79 percent of all applications in the week. Thirty-year mortgages edged higher to 4.69 percent, still near a record low.

Leftback said...

"corporations are less liquid than they were prior to the recession"

Especially true of banks, REITs and shadow banking system (GE, GM).
Less true of some of the industrials and techs which are cash rich.

BoJ Spokesperson said...

Isn't that all we have left? Rolling over debt until it can't roll anymore? How long can that go?

How long ya got? How about two decades of KEIRETSU?

CV said...

@BoJ spokesperson

Hai!

Leftback said...

Real estate prost... I mean, agents, in the NYC area are out looking for fresh marks for the Ponzi before it all goes south again at the end of this summer and fall.

Someone had a good post recently that the $8K tax credit effectively added $15K to the price of homes. Not exactly price discovery, until it goes away of course.

karen said...

I-Man, I bookmarked the site but retired early last night.. just skimmed it.. can't agree, of course.. depression averted, recession ended? no we just kicked can down the road.

Leftback said...

MONDAY was a non-event. Therefore...

TUESDAY was a MAGIC MOMO MELTUP.
WEDNESDAY = turn-around day, day of two tapes?

McFearless said...

"Less true of some of the industrials and techs which are cash rich."

I'd just point out that this is hardly all "cash", AAPL serves as a fine example of where cash and debt are being interchanged to mean the same thing.

Leftback said...

Ben Stein is going to work for FreeScore.com for ever:

Credit Scores Collapse

LB looks forward to a day when we purchase things with MONEY, not credit scores. PEAK CREDIT is already behind us.

CV said...

@LB

Monday = rolls eyes
Tuesday = rolls eyes 3 more times
Thursday/Friday = eyes starting to do pinwheels

CV said...

LB looks forward to a day when we purchase things with MONEY...

Always ask for your change in NICKLES... (and save them)

CV's gift to you...

I-Man said...

K, thats just a snibbet... I ignored that part, and tried to grasp the larger idea.

I-Man said...

Cash money, bitches.

The new normal.

karen said...

The NLY chart is fascinating. Look at the number of distribution days over the last 3 months.. reported short position (ahead of offering) 5.21% and it is/was ~66% institution held. current PE of 5.4 with the div at 15.5% yield.. what is not to like?? LOL

bob said...

I

I thought it was good, not sure what else to think of it at the moment.

Leftback said...

Baltic Dry down for 34th day.

Sooner or later that is going to be reflected by China GDP. Tonight?

CV said...

well... 34 IS a fibo number after all

Leftback said...

Crude and Gold are back in the green. Both look heavy.

Leftback said...

J6P is catching on quicker than we might expect:

Americans Not Impressed By Financial Reform Bill

McFearless said...

A thought on the Baltic Dry Index

At the height of stupidity,....no wait, I mean, our last "bull market" many of the shipping companies were putting in huge orders for new ships, which take several years to build. Many are now just coming "on-line" consumption could have stayed flat or even gone up but with a much larger supply of ships chasing the same or slighly more goods you could get some negative price impact in the BDI?

karen said...

I-Man.. i know but the whole techno sponge thing was too gimmicky.. also this line.. "Most high-tech companies have a business model that incorporates a sort of 'bizarro force' that is completely the opposite of what old-economy companies operate under : The price of the products sold by a high-tech company decreases over time." I don't have the time to argue this one.

McFearless said...

it's pretty obvious to see a simple 3 wave move (zig zag) on the S&P from yesterday's highs to today's lows....that could have been it.

karen said...

alaidi

this $USDX selloff could be just a preview of the post-FOMCminutes selloff $$

CV said...

Feast your eyes on these rationally functioning markets...

http://i873.photobucket.com/albums/ab298/johnlaw1/eurusd7142010.gif

karen said...

this entire move is being reflected in the $tyx.. waiting till the 1pm auction with bated breath : )

CV said...

@ben

That "zig zag" you mention ended right on a .009 fibo retrace from yesterdays highs...

.009 is all we're getting of late... I knew I should have hedged there, but was HOPING for a deeper correction...

Just like I was "hoping" for sub 1000 (at 1010)...

This is starting to wear on my nerves...

McFearless said...

yeah, dollar has further to drop imo, if you want to count that move up from the lows as impulsive, we need to at least get to a .382 retrace and I'm thinking if that was impulsive it's going to retrace more...I'd love to get involved again with some call options on UUP if the price gets right.

karen said...

CV.. twitter has been atweet about this:

RANsquawk
Market talk of a very large pan European buy programme as we approach the European cash equity close $$

zerohedge
New post: Rumor JPM Just Spiked European Equities And Talk Of Coordinated Currency Ramp

McFearless said...

C,

yeah, it's been hard with that sort of thing lately, I'm getting stuck as well thinking that corrections or rallies will last longer than they end up actually being.

McFearless said...

is that all ZH does now, post rumors about banks manipulating the market?

coordinated this and that, secret meetings, gnomes, john titor and his time machine....

CV said...

There's still a chance that 1098 might get rejected (we're there now - but I don't see any big THRUST up - yet)...

I-Man said...

F*ckin gnomes!!!

Get ya everytime!

McFearless said...

very interested to hear from top step today...yesterday they said locals in the pits didn't buy the 1094.25, I'm assuming buyers came out at the 1090 and they have Tim's 1098.5 objective still around.

mcHAPPY said...

A final push to 1106 for the last mini-gap. No doubt that was a 3 wave down, Ben. This latest movement is choppy at best - 4th wave and a final push to the upside? 1058-1075 is wave 1? Yesterday high gives top of wave 3? Low today 4? C=A at 1106.

Too obvious?

Sentiment is extremely high IMO looking at MSM. Bears have given up before a touch of .786.

Odds probably are not in favour of the above, BUT.....

karen said...

look at the intc chart

I-Man said...

They might be right about this one tho, certainly goes along w/ what we're seeing in the audusd and eurusd today...

Not to mention equities...


BTW, isnt the .oo9 what you would expect in an uptrend?

McFearless said...

McHappy,

I haven't done any trades today but that does look like what it's doing...we'll see, I'm still pretty skeptical that we can go higher than that so I'm keeping some powder dry, if I miss it and we woosh down so what....on to the next trade.

Leftback said...

This is perfect. This affront to the KT will be rejected.
Let em get to 1105-1107.

CV said...

I knew all I had to do was "say it" (to make it happen)...

I-Man said...

I dont mean that last part as a smartass, its a genuine question, just to be clear.

McFearless said...

I, sure, if we are going up hard there is nothing abnormal about the .009er.

karen said...

I-Man, maybe you could start cursing at the dollar.. effing uup!

McFearless said...

that last gap is right there guys....holy hell, if you can't get into this and you are involved in markets you have something wrong with you...

McFearless said...

MON stock is up almost $10/share since 7/6. that's quite a move there.

CV said...

@I-Man

"BTW, isnt the .oo9 what you would expect in an uptrend?"

Answer: YES - But I think there are enough negative divergences showing up in the 5 & 10 min. MACD's to warrant the next fibo...

And I'm not using RSI's so much here because of the low volume characteristic of the meltup...

karen said...

On MON, from 07/09:

Monsanto Co. (MON) shares gained 7.3% after the company agreed to pay a $2.5 million civil fine for not telling farmers about restrictions on planting its genetically modified cotton seed. The company also said it will complete international regulatory work so U.S. farmers can export genetically modified soybean through 2021, four years longer than promised in December

Nic said...

Hi Karen
Sorry I missed your post last night and today.
I think EURUSD and AUDUSD are back in the lead. They reversed off the lows before stocks did, they changed trend before stocks and today broke to new highs before stocks did.
Thats my reasoning ...

CV said...

@karen

effin' SOYULENT GREEN if you ask me...

Anonymous said...

I-man-

I'll drop you a line tonight at dread re the AM post-

all have a most auspicious day

I-Man said...

You too, Ishmael!

karen said...

that MON chart is bizarre.. after the preceeding two days candles and low volume, how could today's bust up have been anticipated?

Spock said...

Live long and prosper

I-Man said...

Breaktime... check yall in a few.

CV said...

@karen

How did your eggs turn out yesterday with that "creme fraiche"?

karen said...

CV, not so fluffy! today's omelet is in the pan now and I went back to just shaking the egg whites vigorously in the cartoon and pouring them directly into the sizzling pan.. less dishes to deal with, too.

McFearless said...

karen,

I like to trade a few stocks and MON is one, I was looking at the same thing, had I put money on it today it would have been on the short side and I'd be losing right now.

CV said...

@karen

Well no wonder... I don't imagine it would have the same effect if the omlettes you're just doing are egg whites...

CV said...

CV still watching VIX (which is still holding steady above the 144MA)...

karen said...

naufalsanaullah
RT @Fullcarry: 30 year vs 5 year at 2.23 is close to wides of post 1971 era.

karen said...

Nic.. thanks for reply.. i still think $xad is topping out.. how much longer will i insist on staying wrong? LOL

Buying of 30 year this afternoon should boost the dollar.. which i think is oversold as well.

karen said...

Ben! the MON news:

http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2010/07/monsanto-mon-finally-shows-signs-of.html

karen said...

CV, yes, you are right about the omelet.. yolks are an emulsifier, too, i believe.

CV said...

@karen

Do you go "strictly whites"? Or, do you do, like, (2) egg white only & 1 full egg?

Leftback said...

"Buying of 30 year this afternoon should boost the dollar.. which i think is oversold as well."

Correct, so sell banks and gold/oil and buy Ts and BUCKY.

Karen, I think Nic simply meant that the FX moves typically precede the equity moves, not which direction they would take.

CV said...

@LB

"typically precede the equity moves"

Agree with the wort TYPICALLY, but lately there have been a lot of spike moves in the E-Minis, that flat out put distance between the AUDJPY that weren't covered up until later...

karen said...

CV, mostly i go strictly whites.. i do eat hard boiled eggs, though. love to add to my salads.

karen said...

alaidi - #China will probably release something btwn 10 &11%. Not too hot so as not to raise West's ire on FX & not too cool . exp 10.3-10.5%

CV said...

(12:28)

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/trichet/AUDJPY%20ES%207.12_2.jpg

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/trichet/AUDJPY%20ES%207.12.jpg

McFearless said...

Not too hot so as not to raise West's ire on FX & not too cool . exp 10.3-10.5%


did someone say goldilocks....

karen said...

Wednesday, July 14th, 2010, 11:30 am Source: Market Watch
The Federal Reserve should resist the temptation to take more easing steps despite growing concerns in some quarters of a slowdown, said Thomas Hoenig, the president of the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank on Wednesday. "I feel that monetary policy should remain on hold," Hoenig said in an interview on the CNBC cable television channel.

Leftback said...

What if China prints an 8 or 9 handle?

A soft-boiled egg in the face for BULLS.

Leftback said...

Did they turn off the machines?

Mannwich said...

Zzzzzzzzzzzzzz.........

Kudlow said...

I said "goldilocks"... Now can I get back to my blow?

I-Man said...

Lunchtime...

McFearless said...

I saw kudlow on the tv maybe 2 months ago, dude was looking good, he had a lot more hair than I remember, looked younger.

CV said...

"I feel that monetary policy should remain on hold"

Well if they ever decide to go the other way and TIGHTEN, they'd better alert Blackrock to put the hedges back on MAIDEN LANE or that puppy is going to blow sky high...

I-Man said...

I-Man has learned to not trade between 12-1 NY time...

CV said...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-lblECDOvDo

Anonymous said...

"I saw kudlow on the tv maybe 2 months ago, dude was looking good"

New rent boy?

McFearless said...

hey none of you helped me out yesterday.

what's the ETF for no double dip?

I mean, I see a lot of people pretending that's a market call, so there must be a way to trade it right?

Leftback said...

Banks are still soft.

No double dip ETF = BULL

OWEBama said...

Since I've never worked in a Dairy Queen in my life, I wouldn't know what a "double dip" is...

Mannwich said...

@ben: Short SRS? ;-)

Leftback said...

Another option would be
GREY POUPON Feb '11 calls.

Anonymous said...

Kudlow knows about double dips.

McFearless said...

manny, hmm, srs goes down all the time though...lol, so that's not really a non-double dip trade.

McFearless said...

LB,
12:49

another classic there

giles is in that trade.

karen said...

ben, how about tna or tyh?

I-Man said...

Giles must of been shitcanned... maybe he was the fall guy for May 6th.

McFearless said...

charts might be indicating that push to 1106-7 is going to happen real soon.

karen said...

indl is a new one for the radar.

karen said...

ben @ 12:53, what in the heck are you talking about?

karen said...

$tyx bonking before the auction.. (don't get too excited, LB!)

McFearless said...

karen,

those could work, I was really hoping to find a fund with "No Double Dip" in the name though, I'll just call direxion and submit to their suggestion box.

the fund would primarily invest in the intellectual capital of those that assign a 0% probability to a double dip recession.

And even though he might not be saying that, I think Beard #1 should be a top holding, after all, that's the primary reason most argue against double dip...the Fed won't allow it.

I-Man said...

We get the auction results at 1:15 ny time?

Leftback said...

Karen

This would be a great time for small tight shorts.
Not to mention bonking.

McFearless said...

karen, you could argue we completed a small five or we are about to...just countin those silly waves again.

I'm not real good on this short of a time frame though.

I-Man said...

Book him.

OWEBama said...

But I do believe I can add 1.5 trillion per year to the deficit and then one fine night a tooth fairy will come along and leave $5 trillion under the pillow.

Note: I understand that's a lot to stuff under a pillow, but my head is pretty large, it needs to be to hold in the inflated opinion I have of myself...

Leftback said...

GARY SHILLING says "Love the LONG BOND".

McFearless said...

his head is huge (owebama)....like an orange on a toothpick

Leftback said...

DENIS GARTMAN says "Look at the YEN STRENGTH. BEARISH sign".

CV said...

@McF

Don't wave 4's tend to be wedges?

If that's the case...

- and if we stopped "just shy" of yesterdays high
- and today's low was "just past" a .009 from yesterdays high
- and if we go back down to .009 (which would be "just above" todays low - at the .009)

See what I'm getting at?

Today... a big old sideways 4...

So the move to 1107 or 1110, or whatever gets put on hold until tomorrow...

Leftback said...

Yield awarded 4.08%

Ts should be firm this afternoon, and ol BUCKY will come along for the ride. Getting nervous, GOLDFINGER?

Leftback said...

SELL EM LLOYD !!!!

Karen, I bet you look fantastic in small tight shorts.

I-Man said...

Think we need to rip a bit higher before we can really play the short side w/ high prob...

Looking to sell YM again up in the 10330s.

The early bird never gets the worm.

arbitrage789 said...

Leftback is back to full form.

The road trip must be over.

Auric Goldfinger said...

No Mr. Bond... I want you to die...

Leftback said...

Still time for some profit takers to run for the exit.
Try yelling FYAH again, I-Man.

2nd Mouse said...

"The early bird never gets the worm."

Is that like saying I get the cheese?

Leftback said...

DL,

About to begin a major road trip to Denmark and England.
Will report back on the state of the KRONUR and other issues.

I-Man said...

Thats exactly it, Mr Mouse!

CV said...

@LB

Say hello to "Jutta" for me...

& "Unn"... & "Ranneveig"... & "Iris"... & "Lenni" &..........

Leftback said...

No steel, please. That was so yesterday.

I-Man said...

We need just enough steel, to make you think we're going to get steel...

Leftback said...

Yo, Giles. Get into fixed income, you dork.

TURN THE SWITCH.

I-Man said...

(That was I-Lloyd, not I-Man)

Leftback said...

CV,

So many delightful Danes, so little time.

DANISH saying:
"You can always tell a Dane.
But you can't tell him much."

(Stubborn vikings)

Lord Blankfiend said...

Giles

Move the lever.. as we agreed,

from PUMP TAXPAYER FUNDED LIQUIDITY
over to SUCK UNLIMITED TRADING PROFITS.

Ritholtz said...

According to our model, the probability of a double-dip recession has now declined from 53.871% to 53.868%.

I-Man said...

Ok, here we go Lefty...

CV said...

Lost in this little "curly shuffle" here is that... FOR NOW...

Mr. Market has thrown off 1098 again...

Anonymous said...

More good gems from Corey -- http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/

-Jennifer

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