A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection
Creditcane where are you?
SPXBullish short day. 1041.83 (fibo .09 from high) waiting for retest. Almost closed above 1078.87 (fib using low). Still above the SMA(21) but below the SMA(233). Midpoint above EMA(10). Closed above the weekly 3LB mid. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1060.27). QE2infinity.
DXYBullish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). The 85.11 (fibo .1459) has been violated. Still below the 76.4% retrace. Avoided testing the 61.8% retrace. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 84.72).
VIXSpinning top day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Closed below weekly 3LB mid & monthly 3LB mid. "Fear is here so don't get fooled on market pumps. Repeat ad nauseam." Back below the SMA(55),the SMA(21) & SMA(89). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 45.79).
GOLDBearish long day. Below the SMA(21) and below the SMA(55). Midpoint below EMA(10). "To hell with fiat! Say it again! I'm gold and I'm proud!". No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1240.70).
EURUSDBearish short day. Midpoint above the EMA(10). No test of the fibo .1855 at 1.2336. The test of the 1.1571 (the .236 fibo level) is on hold again. Still above the trendline (11/27/09-3/17/10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal now 1.2557).
JNKTakuri day (plus no upper shadow). Tested the 50.0% retrace (failed). Still above the SMA(233) and the SMA(55). Midpoint above EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 39.38).
GSSpinning top day. Possible bearish harami. Midpoint above the EMA(10). Still no test of the 2.058 fibo (using low) of 144.98. Still wants to test the 1.618 fibo (using low) of 124.12. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 131.08).
10YR YIELDBullish short day. Possible dragonfly doji (but body is too large and hair is too long). Midpoint now above EMA(10). Still below all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 29.27).
LUMBERBullish short day. Still above the SMA(21). Midpoint back below EMA(10). Maybe the trees are fighting back (think The Happening). No daily 3LB (reversal is 183.60).
BPBullish long day (when compared to recent days). This also makes the 3rd real gap in this direction. Now above the 14.6% retrace (using recent low). Midpoint above EMA(10). Daily 3LB reversal up (reversal now 27.02).
40 comments:
Ra, thanks for the wrap man.
I recall seeing many pundits claim that earnings expectations are what "drive stock prices"
lol, here's a little snip from Biance via EWI STU tonight:
"Earnings estimates began in earnest in the 1970s and the current 'error rate' is larger now than ever. 2008 and 2009 accounted for the largest misses ever recorded"
@Karen,
EWI highlights the stock correlation story, and says exactly what I did today, it confirms the "all the same markets theory" that EWI has been rolling with for a couple years now.
I figure it is only fitting that this is happening again on the downside because I recall going into this year that a lot of the old time money managers that got the smack down in 2008 were hyping coming into this year how excited they were because it was a "stock pickers market" , you know, with more stocks trending with the index than ever before they will pick the ones for you that don't.
Thanks Ra...
Interesting to CV is the candle action on the NORTH side of the 144SMA...
Thanks Ra,
Today, I took my Grandma's pension check and bought SH. Tomorrow or the next day I'm selling her car to buy more.
I'm still trying to view it with my magnifying glass, but either tomorrow or Wednesday we ought to get the "dark cross" on $COMP
@Anon
Grandma's car?
Please don't tell me it's a BRAND NEW SHINY RED SUPER STOCK DODGE!...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xGdLDOXyWsg&feature=PlayList&p=3720DF0AB0D6C69C&playnext_from=PL&playnext=1&index=25
10/40 weekly COMPQ
Ha!
Funny that Barton Biggs & Doug Kass had TECH STOCKS as their "salvation" for running the markets higher...
I had a BLOOMBERG article on it in the last thread...
Anyway...
Based on that 10/40 weekly cross (which is a fairly decent way of looking at it if one doesn't have 50/200 DAILY charts that go back a number of years)...
DEC '07 last Dark Cross? Ouch!
I remember that time vividly...
Nasdaq sold off like a banshee for the first two weeks in '08...
Then, SOC GEN blew up on a "rogue trader" (kinda sounds like "fat finger", huh?)...
But of course, Bernanke came in and cut rates 75 basis points and SAVED THE DAY...
Hey Wizard... Got anymore 75 basis point cuts up your sleeve these days? - lol
Hey Lefty,
Thoughts on the bonds this week? Feel like we should probably be watching that closer than stocks despite it being opex.
@McF
The US government floated $35 billion of 3 year notes (on this fine Monday morning) which was taken down at a cost of just 1.055% (3.20 Bid To Cover).
Primary Dealers took down 45.1%...
More free and easy money for banks borrowing at near 0% interest to hopefully extend raising the DEBT CEILING until AFTER the elections...
Why even bother hacking out a budget when it's that easy?
Where's the damn BUDGET?????
CV
Oops I didn't refresh before my question lol.
@Amen
Budget comes out AFTER debt ceiling is raised...
(& I thought you were "smart")... :-)
@CV -- here is the stockcharts chart. The 50 DMA is at 2060.75 and the 200 DMA is at 2053.41. One more day? http://screencast.com/t/MDVmOWU3
If you bought the SPX this week 10 years ago,
it would be worth 28% less.
50 SMA was 1444.04 then
200 SMA was 1413.36 then
we've come a long way baby!
How quickly the "debt ceiling" becomes the "debt floor".
Sort of like "support" and "resistance" lines.
@CV -- what is the significance of the 144 SMA? Are you marking that touch as the top of minor 2?
Anon @ 9:38
It's worse than that in inflation-adjusted terms.
No bubble here... move along
check it out peeps....
http://www.astardp.com/bpfeed/bp-rov-mega-feed.htm
this is a guy i know who is having his go at this...a really good guy, trying to fix a really big problem
@DL
Agree with ya, feeling we may be grinding down for years to come
@CV
I'm going 100% long tomorrow. I'll sell when we get near 1300. Remember this post!
DL imposter @ 9:46
HEY! Cut that out
imposter @ 9:58 OMG!
Even though I'm long I doubt I'll hold until we get to 1300, maybe 1230.
STOP hacking ME!
DL imposter,
Section 230 of the Communications decency act provides, among other things for:
“vigorous enforcement of Federal criminal laws to deter and punish …harassment by means of computer”
http://www.squidoo.com/cda230
I was sorry to see the hacking action above DL, anyway I clicked the imposter link and it went to your blogsite - seems everyone on this forum has their own site!!!
None of my business of course but I notice you don't offer commentary on your site - even an occasional one line cryptic comment or two might add some color and foster exchange of ideas from readers?
The real Bertie (I think)
@Anon (Random thoughts)...
If you bought the SPX this week 10 years ago,
it would be worth 28% less.
50 SMA was 1444.04 then
200 SMA was 1413.36 then
we've come a long way baby!
Now add to that differential the inflationary COST of a beer at a bar, a hot dog at a ballpark, or the price of 1.75 litres of VODKA...
Stunning your investment return (lack thereof)...
144SMA
Nothing in particular... I just noticed that the VIX was UNDER the 144sma in all the days priou to the April 26th 1220 level...
It dropped under...
Then it shot back over on the FLASH CRASH...
Basically - we're revisiting
- 1220
- the flash crash
(from a VIX perspective)
Place your bets!
@DL
I always appreciate your commentary...
Sometimes, though (whether you are SELF AWARE of it or not)... You're the POSTER CHILD for either "bullishness", or MEDIATION...
Such a scoundrel must suffer "slings & arrows" :-)
BTW... It wasn't ME... I promise...
Anon @ 10:40
I never set out to create a blog. But you get a website for free upon obtaining a blogger account.
It's not so much a blog as it is a site for random ornaments.
CV @ 11:03
I don't know what you mean by "mediation" in this context.
@DL
"Mediation" (only by my definition), refers to the situations where, mostly politically, you make an effort to define the CENTER of the argument...
Mind you... NOTHING WRONG WITH THAT... But there are different "tactical" approaches to things like that...
Comparing myself to you... I'd say...
- You would be FIRST to move the argument to center, then let it find its true home...
- CV? I call it as I see it (instinctually)... I'll admit being WRONG in the end, OR, move towards center if & when the VIABILITY of my stance doesn't conform to the democratic will... But normally, my "attack" plans are formulated rather quickly...
I'm more the PATTON type... Less, the OMAR BRADLEY or EISENHOWER types...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kh9S1Hk975U&feature=related
Sorry for the REVERSE American Flag... It's the only real version of this movie scene without something IDIOTIC (like GW Bush voiceovers) attached...
Also, I'm not referring MILITARILY to the speech... I'm referring to FORTITUDE (in the face of fighting economic repression)...
"I don't like paying for the same real estate twice"...
George Patton
I certainly have my political views. But passions can run pretty high… for example on healthcare issues, and on taxing “the rich”. For many, political views have more to do with emotions than with logic or pragmatism.
@DL
Frankly... I'd rate it as about a 1% probability that ANYONE born (or indoctrinated) into either a religious or political POV to ever change that POV...
Therefore...
EMOTIONS = already "burned into the chip"
LOGIC & PRAGMATISM = not effective to override
So in the end... the WINNER will always be the side willing to overwhelm the opponent by FORCE OF WILL...
And THAT ends up being the 1-2% "margin" that sways the de-militarized zone in an agreed upon democracy...
It's hard to believe that will EVER change...
But then again... the potential VERSES of "kuymbaya" could extend to infinity, right?
http://money.cnn.com/2010/07/12/news/international/greece_spending_slows.fortune/index.htm
"The government has also imposed a 20% tax on gasoline and the ripple effects can be felt on this capital's usually traffic-snarled streets. "It used to take me an hour to get to work," says attorney Roxani Avgerinou, who lives in a northern suburb and drives to her office in the city's center. "Now it takes me 35 minutes." Gasoline station owners reported in the Sunday edition of Kathimerini that sales are down 25% since the beginning of the year.
The slowdown can be seen too, literally plastered across the city's walls. "For sale" and "for rent" signs litter almost every neighborhood in the city. Along a major thoroughfare called Vassilis Sofias Ave., for example, three banners hung from balconies and 11 yellow stickers with red lettering were pasted near the door or on gates to advertise apartments available for rent or sale. And that's just counting one side of the street."
....After living large, the piper in Greece is getting payment. Greece II coming soon to a theater near you??
Portugal gets downgraded by Moodys, the Euro tanks and the ES takes off to new highs. Go figure.
well, AT's 1080 has been broken in the mini's....I'm still pretty skeptical of the 1150-1180 range.
More along the lines of sentiment which I think serve as further support that sentiment is not in fact overly bearish:
The WSJ runs with a fascinating article today that has piqued our naturally contrarian interest — Market View: More Smiles, Wary on Growth: Survey of Global Money Managers Tells a Story of Optimistic, if Cautious, Sentiment About Stock-Market Prospects.
The article cites results from a RBC mutual fund survey, which shows that 66% of portfolio managers see U.S. equity markets rallying in the year ahead; just 19% indicated they expect them to move lower. Fully 69% are bullish in Asia; just 38% on Europe (in fact, 40% see the European markets falling). And, it is inflation that poses the “greater” threat to portfolio performance than deflation — 45% of respondents indicated that and 60% said they expect inflation to be higher over the coming year. Only 34% indicated they expect deflation to be the greater threat.
the above was from David Rosenberg yesterday, I thought I put that in there.
max pain on options is ~1100, so with that break of the 1080 that would seem a likely target for the rest of the week.
Post a Comment