AmenRa's Corner 11.25.11

"We did a little shopping ourselves."

Creditcane™: I got your Black Friday right here.


SPX
Inverted hammer day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing all SMA's. Tested and failed the 61.8% retrace (1168.03). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 1192.98). QE2infinity. Yes, the next test of support is still the 38.2% minor retrace (1122.04).



DXY
Bullish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and held the 100.0% retrace (79.60). Holding above all SMA's. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 78.28). Now confirming the monthly 3LB reversal up.



VIX
Spinning top day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and held SMA(55). Tested and held its 38.2% retrace (33.51). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 48.00). The grip of the "fear" zone is strong.



GOLD
Spinning top day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing its 38.2% retrace (1714.40). Still below SMA(21,55,89). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1639.80). Must have the precious.



EURUSD
Bearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing all SMA's. Tested and failed its 100.0% retrace (1.3350) again. New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 1.3511).



JNK
Spinning top day (possible morning star or supernova). Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing all SMA's. Tested and held its 38.2% minor retrace (36.38). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 37.63).



10YR YIELD
Bullish short day. Failing all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). Holding above its 0.0% retrace (18.96). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 19.94).



WTI
Bullish short day. Tested and held SMA(21). Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed its 50.0% retrace (97.35). No dally 3LB changes (reversal is 99.38). Not confirming the monthly 3LB reversal down.



SILVER
Spinning top day. Failing all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed its 38.2% minor retrace (31.85). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 36.58).



BKX
Inverted hammer day (possible bullish harami also). Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing all SMA's. Failing its 38.2% minor retrace (36.60). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 40.05).



HYG/LQD
Spinning top day (possible bullish harami). Failing all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed its 38.2% minor retrace (0.7540). No daily 3LB (reversal is 0.7619).



USDJPY
Bullish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and held SMA(21). Tested and held its 61.8% minor retrace (77.497). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 75.70).



XRT
Bearish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing all SMA's. Holding above its 38.2% retrace (48.19). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 50.65).




IT HAS BEGUN. YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED.

36 comments:

cv said...

there's a final comment on last thread...

AmenRa said...

CV

I have no cluse as to what will happen in the future. I will say that the EU will implode spectacularly if they don't hurry up and deal with their problems.

AmenRa said...

Russell 2k closed at 666.16. Sign of the times?

AmenRa said...

AAPL closed below its 50.0% retrace.

QQQQ said...

Thanks Ra


lol...

...store had brought out a crate of discounted Xbox video game players, and a crowd had formed to wait for the unwrapping, when the woman began spraying people "in order to get an advantage

AmenRa said...

LSU just tied the game on a 99 yard punt return.

AmenRa said...

QQQQ

That's just f'd up. Is it really that serious?

QQQQ said...

Ra, them some crazy peeps out there, oh, and y'all might not want to buy anything off cgaigslist for a while, might be some copycats out there...discovery of two new bodies 90 miles apart in Ohio could bring the death toll to three from a Craigslist ad that police say lured victims into a robbery

Anonymous said...

cv--

did not 'do a Pick' on that LSU/"Razorpig"-Game?

AAIP

cv said...

@AAIP

No pick on that game...

I put up a few picks (NCAA) for the weekend, but I'm really not interested in much...

Most of what I 'picked' this weekend is purely tactical...

- MD getting points at NC State
- Duke getting points at UNC
- ND getting points at Stanford

The greater majority of those, I believe, will pay off in aggregate if one were to go with all of them...

I'm probably going to be scant on the NFL picks as well...

I'm up 6 units (because the Ravens came thru as a 10 unit play)... So I'll just try to spend that wisely...

Anonymous said...

cv--,

I hear ya..nice Call on the Ravens game~

AAIP

cv said...

I <3 the Ravens!... :-)

& I'm still sticking with my 'pre-season'...

Patriots - Ravens - Packers - Saints making it to the 'final four'

cv said...

@ben

Done deal... The Lions put BEST on IR... Which effectively means he's done for the year...

Anonymous said...

cv--

are the Philly Eagles going to catch the W v. New England?

AAIP

O Wait! you like the Ravens? wtf? when did That happen?

:)

cv said...

@AAIP

Cv... has always been a die hard Ravens fan... ben & Andy T kno this... Thot u did too...

---

I think the PATS will win... I think Philly is capable of giving them a game, but this season is just too weird 4 them...

Now - With Asomugha going down... I dunno... I just think the tank is finally empty...

I'd roll with the Pats...

Anonymous said...

cv--

yes, yes..

see: :) from above, too..
~~

though, re: NE v. PHL ..

can't NE 'afford' to cough one up?

doesn't a PHL loss give them 7 for the Year?

and, then, basically, bounce them 'out of the 'Playoff-picture''?

I'm thinking PHL manages to Win, 'against all Odds'..

AAIP

btw, LSU is, still, under-rated..

the BCS, if they any 'gumption', would let Cougar High take a shot them..they'll come as close as any other..and, they're, still, undefeated..

ben22 said...

cv,

damn, just saw that about Best

wonder if he can come back at all, I watched those videos you put up the other day,he's got a history of getting smashed it would seem, thats quite a few concussions

cv said...

@AAIP

Philly has about an 8% chance of making the playoffs with a win & a 6% chance of making it if they lose...

Either way... That bird is cooked...

Pats are still vying for #1 seed in the AFC (which Baltimore holds at the moment due to tiebreaks)... THAT's the biggest prize...

---

BCS????

Unfortunately, the BCS is like THE FED or GS in this equation...

Which basically means... It ain't gonna happen for the poor undefeated Cougars...

More like... "Here... we'll give you a nice Sugar Bowl, come & get it fido!!! Fetch Fetch..." Then... They'll put them up against Alabama or Arkansas [& pay off the refs] to STOMP them to prove they should have never been there in the first place...

AmenRa said...

http://www.economist.com/node/21540255
The euro zone
Is this really the end?
Unless Germany and the ECB move quickly, the single currency’s collapse is looming


quote:
"Can anything be done to avert disaster? The answer is still yes, but the scale of action needed is growing even as the time to act is running out. The only institution that can provide immediate relief is the ECB. As the lender of last resort, it must do more to save the banks by offering unlimited liquidity for longer duration against a broader range of collateral. Even if the ECB rejects this logic for governments—wrongly, in our view—large-scale bond-buying is surely now justified by the ECB’s own narrow interpretation of prudent central banking. That is because much looser monetary policy is necessary to stave off recession and deflation in the euro zone. If the ECB is to fulfill its mandate of price stability, it must prevent prices falling. That means cutting short-term rates and embarking on “quantitative easing” (buying government bonds) on a large scale. And since conditions are tightest in the peripheral economies, the ECB will have to buy their bonds disproportionately."

quote:
"...Yet Germany, still fretful about turning a currency union into a transfer union in which it forever supports the weaker members, has dismissed the idea.

This attitude has to change, or the euro will break up. Fears of moral hazard mean less now that all peripheral-country governments are committed to austerity and reform. Debt mutualisation can be devised to stop short of a permanent transfer union. Mrs Merkel and the ECB cannot continue to threaten feckless economies with exclusion from the euro in one breath and reassure markets by promising the euro’s salvation with the next. Unless she chooses soon, Germany’s chancellor will find that the choice has been made for her."

More pot shots aimed at the ECB and Germany.

AmenRa said...

Is this a warning the trend in the euro is over (cover page from the Economist): http://media.economist.com/sites/default/files/imagecache/print-cover-thumbnail-home/print-covers/20111126_CNA400.jpg
A pic of the Euro going down in flames.

cv said...

@Amen

Aaaah yes... "THE ECONOMIST"... A 'Rothschild's rag'...

Forever painting scary little stories & pictures that unless you keep playing the game to be slaves to our little "--- confetti" invention, then your lives will end in a fireball...

Better YOUR lives go down in a fireball than ours, so please... keep playing by all means...

Andy T said...

Back from "camping" a da earlier than anticipated. Boy, do I have a story to tell....

AmenRa said...

CV

WTH are you talking about? I was referring to the fact that when trends hit the MSM that trend is usually about over. The "cover indicator" so to speak. Unfortunately the trend in the EURUSD is not looking to stop just yet.

AmenRa said...

Weekly 3LB Update 11/25/11

AmenRa said...

EU trying to find a way to bypass treaty: Germany, France plan quick new Stability Pact

AmenRa said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
AmenRa said...

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/23/us-usa-moodys-committee-idUSTRE7AM1I720111123
Moody's warns U.S. not to skimp on deficit cuts

(Reuters) - Moody's Investors Service on Wednesday warned that its top credit rating for the United States could be in jeopardy if lawmakers backtrack on $1.2 trillion in deficit cuts planned over 10 years.

The ratings firm said the failure of a U.S. congressional committee to reach an agreement on deficit reduction did not affect the Aaa rating, but any pullback from agreed automatic cuts to take effect starting in 2013 could prompt it to take action.

"While a change in the composition of the spending cuts would not be a major rating consideration, a reduction in the total amount that would increase the projected increase in federal debt over the coming decade could have negative rating implications," Moody's said in a statement.

That'll be 2 out of 3 credit rating agencies if they go through with the downgrade. They'll be some unloading of US debt if that happens.

AmenRa said...

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/23/us-financial-stress-idUSTRE7AM2NE20111123
What would happen if an asteroid hit U.S. banks?

Article is about the "more demanding" stress test the Fed are about to run. What's funny is the sniveling, bitchy ass quote from Bove in the article.

BinT said...

Amen:

I think the EU is going to undergo major changes, I would think by the end of the year. I don't think there is much doubt that most, if not all of Europe, is in recession. I think I read something that 60% of Germany's exports go to the rest of Europe..

The thing that is puzzling here is Merkel, at least to me. Some days she seems for maintaining a strong Germany, and on others it seems she wants to bail out Europe, which seems to me to place most of the financial onus on Germany, which I think would be a disaster too.

...Maybe its PMS...

Andy T said...

"What's funny is the sniveling, bitchy ass quote from Bove in the article."

Ha. When is he not sniveling and bitching....

Andy T said...

Stress Tests?

What a joke....

Does sane person or investor "really" care about the results of a "stress test?"

C'mon Man!

Andy T said...

I finally broke down last week and bot a new computer...I had been working on the same Sony Laptop for 5 years (I'm a cheap bastard). The price of these "all in one" monitor/computers had just gotten to a crazy price point....

Finally upgraded to Office2010 as well...was still on Office2003!

Will have some "Scribd" thoughts later in the day...as I toy around the new machine.

Andy T said...

Yo CV. Good luck on the FF this week....

This seems like a "last stand" for your team.

I think I can absorb a loss...somehow the FF gods gave me a win last week...they recalculated Fred Davis' yards to 52...which gave me an extra point i think. somehow i now won that game by a point instead of a tie.

Anonymous said...

"...The price of these "all in one" monitor/computers had just gotten to a crazy price point...."

AT,

right? 'Tower' PC w/ 6-8 G RAM, 1-1.5 TB HDD, built-in 'wireless N' was being adv.d, 'round these parts, for U$D ~550

23" flat-screen Monitor for U$D ~150

not, too, many years ago, something like that was called a 'Workstation', and one would lucky to get the 'Tower', alone, for 5-digits...

the Monitor, easily, 4-digits..

btw, did your new 'pute come with Windows7 ?

if so, which one? and, how do you like it?

AAIP

AmenRa said...

The "EU can be saved" rumor mill was strong this weekend. Don't think it will help though.

cv said...

@Amen

I'm simply pointing out that 'THE ECONOMIST' (from what I understand), is basically owned by the Red Shield... That's all...

Naturally, the spin from a mass media PR rag like that is going to be towards scaring everyone into TEOTWAWKI if the money printing ever stops...

More debt... More 'tolls' (for the tolltakers), in the form of taxes eventually heaped on whoever the target of interest is...

Note: It's NOT the rich, & it's NOT the poor...

Somebody wake me when something changes...

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