Creditcane™: How do you want your bull? Deep fried, smoked or baked?
SPXBearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing all SMA's. Tested and failed the 61.8% retrace (1168.03). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 1215.65). QE2infinity. Next test of support is the 38.2% minor retrace (1122.04).
DXYBullish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and held the 38.2% minor retrace (78.71). Holding above all SMA's. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 78.02). Now confirming the monthly 3LB reversal up.
VIXBullish short day (thought it would move more). Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and held SMA(89). Tested and held its 38.2% retrace (33.51). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 48.00). The grip of the "fear" zone is strong.
GOLDSpinning top day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing its 38.2% retrace (1714.40). Still below SMA(21,55,89). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1639.80). Must have the precious.
EURUSDBearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing all SMA's. Tested and failed its 100.0% retrace (1.3350). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 1.3540).
JNKBearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing all SMA's. Tested and failed its 50.0% minor retrace (36.62). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 37.63).
10YR YIELDBearish short day. Failing all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed its 0.0% retrace (18.96). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 19.94).
WTIBearish long day. Tested and failed SMA(21). Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed its 50.0% retrace (97.35). New low on dally 3LB (reversal is 99.38). Not confirming the monthly 3LB reversal down.
SILVERSpinning top day. Failing all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and held its 38.2% minor retrace (31.85). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 36.58).
BKXBearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing all SMA's. Failing its 38.2% minor retrace (36.60). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 40.05).
HYG/LQDBearish long day. Failing all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed its 38.2% minor retrace (0.7540). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 0.7619).
USDJPYBullish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and held SMA(21). Failing its 61.8% minor retrace (77.497). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 75.70).
EEMBearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing all SMA's. Tested and failed its 38.2% retrace (36.78). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 40.38).
COPPERSpinning top day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing all SMA's. Tested and failed its 38.2% minor retrace (3.316). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 3.441).
TED Spreadtrend=up
high= 0.4680
rev= 0.4090; mid= 0.4385
IT HAS BEGUN. YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED.
35 comments:
Thanksgiving Day "picks" are up... (plus - some leanings into the weekend games)...
HAPPY THANKSGIVING ALL!
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cv will enjoy the early afternoon games on the tube... STUFF HIS FACE in the late afternoon...
Then, head on over to M&T Bank Stadium for the Ravens - 49ers... look for me in the stands... I'll be the dude with the END THE FED placard (which 'guarantees' I'll get no TV time)...
If, instead, I wear a paper bag over my head & have a sign that says "Sandusky Sodomized Me", I'll be on Good Morning America on Friday...
Since it's unpredictable what CV will ever do, stay tuned to your favorite media outlet for further happenings...
Or don't... Just drink... pass out... & wake up Sunday evening to the headline...
"FOMC Minutes reveal that they will be on hold for rate hikes until 2013"
Translation: the "QE [print the coupon to infinity]" lever has been pulled...
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PAY NO ATTENTION TO THAT MAN BEHIND THE CURTAIN!!!
wow, way more traffic this year versus last on the PA turnpike...interesting
Bruce,
you know whats interesting?, spending nearly all day yesterday on the phone with people I also got to experience what you did in your post on the last thread. Talk to enough people you get one of everything. All fair points you made of course, as I said earlier, I thought the guys concern about Europe was certainly warranted. Heck, I've been worried about Europe for about 4 years now.....and its gotten worse.
That said, personally, I would never base investment decisions off stuff like that (trailing or coincident economic indicators, tax laws, etc), I'm decidedly not a "macro trader", just not my thang. As for the ten year, if we are going to talk in an efficient market sort of manner, a ten year below 2% is not exactly bearish for stocks.
anyway, what I pointed out to the client that did nearly same exact thing yesterday was to ask him:
Tell me about all those things in March of 2009 at the S&P lows and even in the quarter that followed the lows, US economic data, treasury yields, emerging market economies, Europe and so on......, did they look very different then anything you just told me?
There was some silence after this, then the client said
"so....., maybe we should buy then?"
thanksgiving food for thought...... and not a suggestion for anyone to do anything, nor did I tell him to buy anything during that call, in fact, we then discussed selling covered calls against a few of his holdings
most of my clients are still ass deep in bonds, we like some/several stocks, but most certainly not "the market"
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/21/us-farmland-idUSTRE7AK0EA20111121
"..."If you don't have at least 50 percent cash to put down on a sale, you've got no chance these days," said Wayne Keller, co-owner of BuyAFarm.com, a Midwestern land auction and real estate company. "What kid has that kind of money, when even small farms are selling for millions of dollars?"
OWN YOUR OWN
It didn't used to be that way. For generations, rural Iowans believed strongly that farmers should own their own land. That attitude to keep outsiders out solidified during the Great Depression, when banks and insurance companies foreclosed on thousands of farmers and took back their lands.
The philosophy prevailed here and elsewhere in the Midwest in the late 1970s and early 1980s, as fear of outside investors resulted in some states passing laws that banned farmland from being owned by foreigners and corporations.
For decades, they got their way. In 1982, 94 percent of the state's farmland was owned by people who lived in Iowa, according to data compiled by Iowa State University.
But that resolve has waned. When the U.S.'s rural economy eroded in the wake of the 1980s farm collapse, many families encouraged their progeny to leave the land and find their economic fortune in America's cities.
The kids left. Many of them they stayed away. As the years passed, that familial loyalty to the land faded.
Today, about 20 percent of Iowa farm land is owned by people who don't live in the state, according to Iowa State University data. The average Iowa farmland owner is a single woman - often a widow - who is over the age of 70..."
whole article was worthwhile~
AAIP
Ben,
Thanks for the note. And thanks for the lumber update again Amen.
No, Ben, as I've written about some time ago now, I really started doing my own investments in the mid-90's. And that has made all the difference in my life. I've mentioned the Economist eye-opener that let you know that people would make more money if they were invested in equities only 50% of the time. And why.
I have an advantage over you, in that I only have to do what is right for me, and I don't have to defend that position to someone else who is paying me to make more money for them than they could themselves.
I actually enjoy following the markets. So that makes me different than I think 100% of the people I associate with. We are generating much more money than we need in my early retirement, and are putting our DIL through nursing school too. I have put aside money to speculate with, but not under these global economic conditions. I have learned enough about myself to know I am more comfortable betting on long positions than short ones...
I think the thing that has helped me the most is patience. Most people in my profession who make decisions about people's lives instantly tend to make their economic decsions similarly.
I grew up too poor for that...
Happy Thanksgiving.
Tell me about all those things in March of 2009 at the S&P lows and even in the quarter that followed the lows, US economic data, treasury yields, emerging market economies, Europe and so on......, did they look very different then anything you just told me?
There was some silence after this, then the client said...
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cv's 2 cents (not that I'm a financial advisor or anything)... Just macro thoughts...
- The election cycle is in full swing... November 2012 will be POTUS (or TOTUS) elections, depending on your take...
- My take? Woodrow Wilson bitchez? WTF???
- WTF = the Fed's Charter expires in 2013... Woodrow Wilson "got to be President" because he played ball with the Jeckyll Island homies...
- So there is only ONE thing & one thing only at the top of the "to do" pyramid... & that's for the banker boys to keep their silly little game going...
- I don't know who is going to be the next President, but whoever it is will be the one that plays ball BEST with these guys... All information (and mis-information) about this candidate or that will fall under the bus of this objective... If it comes right down to it, we'll have another RFK moment, mark my words...
- So... what does that mean for "stocks" (or financial markets), or "the economy"... Well - nothing much really... Or at least in the context of what extending the Fed's charter means... The market may soar, it may tank, it may do BOTH if it is expedient towards that end...
- Frankly... It is a pretty silly thing to worry about (well, at least for me it is... The rest of have jobs to do, so I suppose it's important to you & I acknowledge that)...
- But what it means in the end (extending the Fed's Charter) is simply one thing... Then they keep getting to play games with the 'confetti dollar'... It keeps from going the way of the dodo bird (at least for awhile)...
- The problem is, keeping the Fed (& the dollar around) for the next go around only serves one purpose... & that is to allow them to continue to debase it... What I have said ALL ALONG is that debasing a currency doesn't happen by CRASH... It happens incrementally... Hell, it's been going on for a century already... Glidepath bitchez... Glidepaths don't 'feel' like glidepaths, there are air pocket jolts along the way...
- But make no mistake about... If all your WEALTH is tied up in paper assets, then your assets are only truly worth as much as the paper itself is worth... I won't argue that it's handy and useful in the interim, but when the plug is finally pulled, you'll have a claim on exactly SQUAT...
I think guys like Marc Faber & Kyle Bass have it right...
25% 25% 25% 25% seems to be rather prudent...
Most people I seem to meet are more like:
0% (60% 40%) 0%
& that (60% 40%) is all fiat based... (which goes to zero when the currency itself is the sacrificial lamb in any eventual debt ponzi reset)...
Bruce,
Happy T to you as well, and yeah, you've def. got a major advantage over me in that you've only got your own to watch over. Dealing with a base of clients would be easy if they all felt the same way about things but no one person is really exactly alike. Thats one advantage of a hedge fund, it's basically, here's my fund, you are in our you are out.
I think you will enjoy this paper, maybe if you have some time to skim through it, I thought it was really well done:
http://www.scribd.com/doc/71813966/The-21st-Century-Bear-Market
just so I'm not confusing anyone around here in what I'm saying, I'm still convinced that the secular bear market that started is NOT over, and it won't be over for years to come, and we'll see an S&P well below 1,000 again before it is.
We try to go roughly 90 days at a time/1 quarter because unfortunately doing what I do, I don't always have that patience aspect going for me, people will fire me.
its always its a question of timing, as for that 50% stat, check that paper, very much confirms that "stocks for the long run" is total crap.
everyone have a great day today, can't wait to watch some football
secular bear......that started in 2000, that is.
also read it that way despite the new nominal high in 2007, priced in real money they market has never come close to getting back to its 2000 peak.
Happy Thanksgiving everyone.
Thought this was interesting: http://home.earthlink.net/~schiffeconomics/01.htm
How an Economy Grows: A Fish Story
For a laugh: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-25/ten-year-treasuries-decline-pushing-yields-up-four-basis-points-to-1-93-.html
Treasuries Drop as 10-Year Yield’s Approach to Record Low Seen Unjustified
Treasuries fell, eroding a weekly gain, on concern yields that dropped to within 20 basis points of the record low aren’t justified given the outlook for holiday shopping.
Quotage..
"I do verily believe that if the principle were to prevail of a common law being in force in the United States (which principle possesses the general government at once of all the powers of the state governments, and reduces us to a single consolidated government), it would become the most corrupt government on the earth."
-- Thomas Jefferson
(1743-1826), US Founding Father, drafted the Declaration of Independence, 3rd US President
Source: Thomas Jefferson to Gideon Granger, 1800. 10:168
http://quotes.liberty-tree.ca/quote_blog/Thomas.Jefferson.Quote.AD06
"He [King George III] has erected a multitude of New Offices and sent hither swarms of Officers to harass our people, and eat out their substance."
-- Thomas Jefferson
(1743-1826), US Founding Father, drafted the Declaration of Independence, 3rd US President
1776
Source: Declaration of Independence, listing the reasons for declaring independence from England.
http://quotes.liberty-tree.ca/quote_blog/Thomas.Jefferson.Quote.ACD5
"The policy of American government is to leave its citizens free,
neither restraining them nor aiding them in their pursuits."
-- Thomas Jefferson
(1743-1826), US Founding Father, drafted the Declaration of Independence, 3rd US President
Source: Thomas Jefferson to M. L'Hommande, 1787.
http://quotes.liberty-tree.ca/quote_blog/Thomas.Jefferson.Quote.9125
the juxtaposition, of the last two, is, rather, striking..
AAIP
It was LOUD at M&T Bank Stadium last night when the Ravens were on defense...
The 49ers had no chance...
It wasn't even as 'close' as the 16-6 score might have indicated...
It was "tee-off" city... I repeat... The 49ers had NO CHANCE...
People rarely get a chance to see the TRUE Ravens... Why? Because there are rarely any big time (prime time TV) home games at M&T Bank Stadium... When there are, it's usually against the Steelers (where the Ravens can appear sloppy because, well, the Steelers are GOOD)...
In primetime, you usually see the Ravens 'on the road' (often on a short week) or AFTER they've just played a game vs. Pittsburgh... So they can become predictably unfocused & complacent...
But when it counts... They step up...
The 49ers are a good team... They're probably 2nd or 3rd best in the NFC right now... Of course, the Packers are #1 there & I'd still say the Saints could beat the 49ers... But the Saints came into M&T Bank Stadium last year and tried their luck (as well as the Texans did this year)... Both were turned away rather sheepishly...
Be careful if the road to the Superbowl has to go thru Baltimore (playing at home)... I think only the Steelers really know what that's all about...
Ben:
Read the review article and the conclusion...quite good.
CV
The Ravens D-line just manhandled the 49ers O-line.
I thought that Dallas Miami game was pretty good
Reggie Bush can still fake someone right out of their shoes
That TD grab by Marshall was also impressive
of course, I'm a big L. Robinson fan as well
DXY up 0.50%. Equities trying to ignore that fact. So equities are driving down the highway at break neck speeds while texting and don't notice that traffic has stopped due to an accident.
L Robinson...
Don't remind me... I still can't believe I missed seeing him on waivers that week...
My mind must have been elsewhere...
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I'm going to be controversial (to the 'eye'), & side with Ndomakung Suh on that play in the Det-GB game...
Let me clarify...
1. It was definitely stupid of him to again become involved in a play where only bad things can happen...
2. But I think most players in the league are now 'schooled' on how to handle Suh (even if he brought it about all by himself)... I think basically everyone can get away with dirty play against him (essentially, 'provoking' him)...
3. He was clearly being held down by the lineman (which led to him getting pissed & retaliating)... His, pushing the guys hedf down was reflective of that... But I think the STOMP was somewhat sketchy... I know it 'looked' bad, but I'd side on the idea that the guy was still tangling around with his leg getting up and he was just aggressively trying to shake that off (which amounted to what looked like a stomp)...
4. Truth is, it was probably about half & half... But it didn't seem premeditated to me... It wasn't like, "I'm going to stomp the living shit out of this guy"... Trust me, if that was the intention, he would have been looking straight down at the guy and gone straight for the middle of the body... Instead, I think he was basically of the mind set of "get the EFF off of me"...
Again, it's his own fault for letting his aggressive play get the better of him (& because of the way it happened, he definitely deserved a fine and suspension)...
But what I'd prefer to mitigate are the comments by all the blowhard TV analysts (like Boomer Esiason, & Cowher) that all seem to jump at the chance to become the "outlaw justice posse" everythime something like that happens...
Suh needs to be suspended, but I'd also be in favor of suspending about 80% of the analysts on TV...
http://markets.ft.com/RESEARCH/Markets/Government-Bond-Spreads
Italy 10yr 7.33%
Spain 6.72%
Portugal 13.37%
Greece 27.97%
Things are just fine in the EU {sarc}
@Amen
"Manhandling' is a word that needs to be put into context...
Sure... I'd say that 'on the margin', the Ravens are more physical in the trenches than almost all teams in the NFL...
But what most people don't realize are the complexity of their blitz schemes... You just never know who is coming (or from where)...
You are in DEEP trouble playing against the Ravens if you're a QB who is losing the down & distance battle... 3rd & long is death playing against the Ravens...
Most teams that do not play in the AFC North have no idea what's coming at them when they come to play either the Ravens or Steelers...
The main reason the Steelers can hang with the Ravens is because Rothleisberger can move around in the pocket, shed tackles, & extend plays... So the Steelers can sometimes overcome what the Ravens bring...
The only other QB that has shown he can really handle it is Peyton Manning (because he makes quick decisions & has multiple weapons)... Most of the time, the only option is to just get rid of the ball... If that had been Peyton Manning last night, he would not have taken 9 sacks... Alex Smith was like a deer in headlights... I think the Ravens would struggle with Aaron Rodegrs as well (but they would at least be disruptive)...
When the Ravens lose games, it's because they don't take every game seriously... So when they go to Seattle, for example, the week AFTER beating Pittsburgh, they're like... WTF???
They fumble 2 kickoff returns & Flacco throws a ridiculous interception in the red zone & basically HAND OVER 13 points... In those games, they sleepwalk through pretty much thinking they can work something out in the end...
Then, if a penalty, or a bad break occurs late in the game, they're like "Holy F***, we just shot ourselves in the foot"...
I still wouldn't be surprised to see the Ravens drop a game this year... It wouldn't surprise me in the least for a WINLESS Colts team to come into Baltimore in two weeks and waltz out with a victory... More likely, they could drop a game to intradivision Browns or Bengals... The Bengals always play the Ravens tough because Marvin Lewis was the original architect of the Ravens D (when they won the Super Bowl)...
I'm glad there's a 10 day rest right now... It's enough time for the Ravens to really sit down and digest the idea that if they can win out right now, the road to the Superbowl goes thru Baltimore (as they hold tiebreaks over both the Steelers & Patriots right now, & over the Texans as well)...
go flacco, UD superstar, I like that kid
CV,
Robinson has played well and seems to be in good sync with Romo, even when Miles Austin comes back Im thinking he's still in a good spot to get a decent amount of targets each week
re:Detroit, they looked like the young guns versus the vets in that game
have you heard anything about why Best has been out so long?
Is todays rally just a way to keep BAC from breaking the 5 handle?
@ben
Best is a concussion case... He's barely even attending practices... That's why I cut him... I highly doubt he'll be in any kind of playing condition before fantasy ends (which might be in 2 weeks for you because the playoffs in fantasy start week 15)...
I picked up Kevin Smith, but he predictably went out of the game with a high ankle sprain...
It's a hard luck year for me in the Booey League... I'm in 2nd in both of my other pay leagues at the moment...
Best has a history with concussions going all the way back to his days at Cal... I'll bet the hit he took vs. the Univ of MD (while playing with Cal) is on some you tube highlight somewhere...
Then, later in that same year, he landed on his head from about 6 feet in the air (I think in a game against Oregon or Oregon State)...
Dude's had his bell rung several times...
CV,
At this point I doubt I will get into the playoffs, but I might be able to screw someone out of a spot so I have that going....
I figured I'd pick him up in case he came back, I dropped a player for him I wouldn't use again anyway but this must be a more serious injury, seems like they've sent him to a lot of specialists but no real news about anything. Thought about smith in another league I'm in but also thought he'd get injured, and I already made the bonehead move of taking one jamaal charles this year
Just as I thought... Best (worst) highlights...
vs. Oregon State
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bqRGUnkFXlY
vs. Maryland
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i26DRXC37fs
CV
Vid #1 "I'm flying!"
Vid#2 Nasty hit. But it was a clean hit.
Added the TED Spread. It's above the highs from June 2010.
EU markets closed. Time for reality to reassert itself.
Grease wants a 75% haircut? hmmm
...markets small reaction, so far
sold all of my SDS calls earlier today :(
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/greeks-restart-bond-haircut-negotiations-demand-lower-npv-bypass-iif-creditor-negotiations
Greece is at it again. They are asking for larger haircuts and demanding that ISDA not consider it a credit event.
SPX daily is an inverted hammer BUT it's a better signal if it had a higher close instead of a lower one.
@Amen
If today was an inverted hammer, what was the previous candle...
An inverted Icepick? Mattock?
CV
Bearish long day. Actually a perfect marubozu in that the high/low equals the open/close.
new thread
I'm just being silly... But the bottom line is this...
My comment (above)... 8:48 yesterday... was not really a joke...
My 'handicapping is'...
- Woodrow Wilson bitchez
- bankers are deciding right now who they want the NEXT 'totus' to be
- It could be the incumbent, or someone else
- whoever the next one is, will be the one who performs the best 'fellatio'
- If you want me to handicap it even farther, I think the incumbent totus has proved that he is one of the best 'fellatio' performers that ever sunk down to his knees
- my $$ would thus be on him
- if he steps out of line, there are always 'book depositories' & 'kitchen entrances' to look out for, so I hope your security detail booklets don't wind up in gutters like they recently did in Australia
- The Euro dollar looks poised to put a few candles in around those early October levels... You know... Just for fun...
- It's easy to do 'stick saves' in the Thanksgiving to YE timeframe... Fancy that?!?
- Since the dollar is pretty much the opposite (for now), and since the S&P is basically the inverse of the dollar... Do the math
- 2012 Will be chock full of ups and downs
- It's ALL a distraction to make the 'sheeps' wring their hands and think something 'needs to be done'
- NEVER LET A CRISIS GO TO WASTE
- Of course, 2012 will be helped along by the fact that the world will surely end on 12/21/12 and... drumroll... OLYMPICS!
- TPTB will be overjoyed at all these distractions because it won't be hard for them to secure their next MONKEY BOY (even if it's the same MONKEY BOY) and get him to sign off on being 'Woodrow Wilson' 2...
- By 2013, we'll all wake up, and the dollar debasing can continue anew
- NOBODY COULD HAVE EVER SEEN IT HAPPENING!
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