Sunday Evening Post-Thanksgiving Hangover Edition: Week Ahead Glimpse

Hope Everyone had a great Thanksgiving.

It's "possible" I ate too much food and imbibed too much liquor...

After looking at the S&P500 a bit today, the best strategy for shorter term traders is to scale out of existing short trades or use 1183 as very near term stop loss point.  The market collapsed and finished at 1158 last week which was very much what we expected.  So, after a market does what is anticipated, there's not much to do but get "neutralish" and seek new ideas.

I'll be paying more attention to the metals and the dollar this week to see how they react to a possible S&P500 bottom (albeit short term.)  There will be updates to those markets in the week ahead.

Market Commentary 27NOV11


Addendum PERSONAL STORY:

So, every year we have 4-6 families who do a camping weekend near Thanksgiving time...we celebrate the holiday as friends.  We normally camp at some "bare bones" cabins in Lake Bastrop, but that area was burned to a crisp in the wildfires.  So, one of the ladies spotted this location on the internet:  Hill Country RV Resort and Cottages.

Now, as long as I have a BBQ near me and some trees and some fresh air, I'm normally OK with wherever we might land.  I didn't investigate this place or even look it up.  I just assumed that it was vetted in some way.

Long story short, my family is the first to arrive at this little "campground."  We're on the I-35 and my wife says:  "Ok, get off here and turn left at Rueckle Road."
Me:  "And then where do I go?"
Wife:  "It should be right here."
Me:  "Wait a minute.  It's right off this major interstate?"
Wife:  "Yeah, I was a little worried about that too when I realized we're so close to the highway."
Me:  "Yeah."

We quickly see some cyclone fencing which encloses this "RV Resort" and the accompanying playground for kids.  It borders this major road and interstate.

When I pull into this place all I see is a serious of widely paved concrete roads that head off into the distance where "mobile homes" can be observed.

It's Thanksgiving Day and we're supposed to be here for the next three days.

Nervousness sets it....

The office is closed.  Our "packet" is in a drop box. I pick it up and read that our "cabin" number is 62.

I start down this road where the cabins begin with #1

After the first four relatively new cabins I become shocked.

We start seeing a series of single-wide mobile homes that have become residences.  The windows are covered in foil and cardboard.  If you happen to be staying at #15, it's really easy to spot...as it has the numbers 1 and 5 spray-painted in RED on the side.   We observe at least 20 dilapidated mobile homes on cinderblocks that can best be described as "crack houses" or insipient "meth labs."

As we loop back to our row, the scene is the same.  Except for the fact that spot #60 is being gutted out by a crew of laborers.  There are saws buzzing and hammers hammering as the guts of this rotted out single wide lays out in the road.

We're just a few spots away from the action....

Another two families are coming for Thanksgiving Dinner and another three families are coming tomorrow.

I start doing that laugh...that sort of "crazy person" laugh....when you realize that you're utterly screwed.

Me to Wife:  "There's now way we can stay here.  The kids can't even ride their bikes.  I'd be afraid for them."

A 1999 Yellow Sebring rolls by thumping some loud street music.....and this young kid leers at my family....

Wife to Me:  "Yeah."

We call the the friend who "found" this place.  They were about 30 minutes behind us.  We told them we had to get out of here.  They thought we were joking...

Then, they arrived and took in the scenery....

Fellow Husband to Me as he jumps out of his car:  "What the hell?!"
Other Wife to my Wife:  "I thought you were just pulling my leg or trying to tease me!"

We to Them:  "No.  It's really bad."

It thought we were going to have to go back home.....Could not believe we left our homes for a "vacation" to come here.

Praise to Steve Jobs.

Various people quickly jumped on I-Phones and I-Pads and found a different spot about 30 minutes away owned by this really nice old French guy and his wife.  We ended up staying at this really quaint place north of where we were.  Because we now lacked cooking time and stoves, the Turkey was "butter-flyed" and grilled. (That was a first for me.)

This organic bird was brined 48 hours beforehand and was definitely "room temperature"...errrr "car temperature" by the time it hit the grill.

It was AWESOME.

It ended up being a great weekend ....  22 total people at this campsite on very short notice.  So, I'd like to give a little shout out to Pierre Crestin at Canyon Lake Cabins and Cottages who offered my group asylum on short notice.  He runs a good show....and we'll be back.