ES (daily info)new low 1182.75
trend=down
low= 1182.75
rev= 1214.75; mid= 1198.75
ES is now below its 50.0% retrace. It's below its weekly 3LB mid. It's below all SMA's. Looking to test the 61.8% retrace (which may happen very quickly now that the EU problems are getting exponentially worse).
AUDJPY (weekly info)-no change (below mid)
trend=up
high= 0.8080
rev= 0.7400; mid= 0.7740
The proxy for risk in the EU is screaming it dives below the SMA(233), SMA(144) and the 61.8% retrace. The 3/11 low and 10/11 low are the next areas of support. That support may act like someone trying to walk on water.
35 comments:
AAIP,
on previous thread, responded to your last comment
Q's,
no, I'm not short, only in the form of some hedge but nothing close to net short at the moment.
in October some sentiment survey's got to a bearish level that was almost close to where they were in 09 at s&P < 700
at the recent highs of 1290's cash we were getting close to the bullish danger level again, we are currently at, lets call it 1170 on S&P cash
yesterday I got over 20 calls/emails because people are starting to freak out, this hasn't happened in quite a while now, but it's vaca week for a lot of people so they need something to do
here's just one of the conversations yesterday after I told client I was watching that 1150 area from the triangle break was "what if there is a run on banks in Europe"
me; yes, certainly could happen, what time frame are you concerned about, through year end
him: now, I'm talking about the next 3-4 weeks
me: thinking in my mind (wouldn't that be year end?) but no matter....
him: I just have a FEELING we are going lower than 1150
me; what is that based on besides your feelings
him; silence, then the admission, there is no other reason
me: so thats fine and normal to think that but its not how I operate, lets go through all your holdings.....and what we think would be likely to happen to each if there is a run, this client is fairly risk averse
his allocation as of Monday's market close was 69% fixed income, he owns a combo of LQD, BND, DLTNX, DLFNX and the smallest holding is in PBDAX in the fixed space. He is 7% short and 22% long, small amount in cash.
He made me sell ALL the longs, which included DUK, MO, NLY, GIS, PEP MCD, VZ and UA.
now just think about his accounts if the market rallies what is going to happen to them, all based on his feeling, the client couldn't tell you one single thing about the European situation other than that is appears "bad"
my opinion, watch for the next leg in Andy's charts to play out sooner rather than later, and for the person above to be calling back at 1200+ on that leg asking when we are "getting back in"
last week all I read about on pretty much any place I went on the net was how bullish thanksgiving week is and how bearish the monday after is, almanac links, bespoke tables, small time blogs typing it up and presenting it as their own research, and so on.
so much for those tendencies.....going to have to bring more to the table than that to these fights
gl
also, SODA, that thing could be about over, chart looking very weak
and not to come across as a raging bull, I'm not, simply a Z wave buyer
thinking out the next few months instead of the next couple days, thats all
Andy or Neelys views help shape that, different counts, same general outlook though
ben22
The only tendency I've noticed is that it's best to short the week AFTER opex.
Weekly claims (NSA) +74k
Continuing claims (NSA) +185k
Ouch.
these stress tests are going to be such a joke
"looks good over here" the likely result
B22 Thanks.
BAC is stressing some, for sure
99cents here we come,
or, reverse split... to save it?
spooz (5 min chart) look'n nasty today
GRPN below IPO price already.
61.8% check.
DXY now confirming its monthly 3LB reversal up.
Q's,
not sure, I don't really chart any of the banks currently, no interest in buying there, ugly charts
The S&P looks terrible right now, of course, while "price pays" there are some other indicators that should be watched at the moment, tick, nymo, a/d line, implied volatility, and so on.
if you are short you are probably still holding here and if you had some cash you are probably waiting still before buying in long
been a very tough market this year, not really a shock to see so many big names leaving the biz, most recently Bill Miller
B22, cashed in 30 SDS calls just a bit ago, will possibly hold the rest until end of week or maybe into next week, not sure (start of Xmas rally ya know). Agree about tough trading this year, just glad I pulled the 401 out in the mid 1300's. Have never regretted that call. Trading account, now that a different story, I've butchered it a few times... LOL
Obama's pardon the turkey speech, no mention about the unemployed and poor in AMERICA that may not have a thanksgiving feast... this guy makes my head hurt.
I just watched that trash, his proudest moment in it seemed to come when he said "i've been making a lot of executive moves without congressional oversight"
and then some morons cheer that
so many people in this country want a dictator, they are just afraid to call it that
O's hair is getting very light of late....
nice trade btw Q's
well folks, we are about to hit the road here to go see family for T-giving, looks like we get a nice day for our 6 hour drive
hope you all have a great one and get some time to relax and unwind from markets for a day or three, I may pop in here and there next few days but likely I'll be back around on Sunday.
see you then
Anthology of Obama speeches...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0DAKwICn3W4
McB,
re: your 11:03..
Quotage..
"[T]hose who are willing to surrender their freedom for security have always demanded that if they give up their full freedom it should also be taken from those not prepared to do so."
-- Friedrich August von Hayek
(1899-1992), Nobel Laureate of Economic Sciences 1974
Source: The Road to Serfdom, p. 140-141 (1944)
http://quotes.liberty-tree.ca/quote_blog/Friedrich.August.von.Hayek.Quote.4E99
"But after war [WW II] broke out I felt that this widespread misunderstanding of the political systems of our enemies, and soon also our new ally, Russia, constituted a serious danger which had to be met by a more systematic effort. Also, it was already fairly obvious that England herself was likely to experiment after the war with the same kind of policies which I was convinced had contributed so much to destroy liberty elsewhere. ... Opinion moves fast in the United States, and even now it is difficult to remember how comparatively short a time it was before The Road to Serfdom appeared that the most extreme kind of economic planning had been seriously advocated and the model of Russia held up for imitation by men who were soon to play an important role in public affairs. ... Be it enough to mention that in 1934 the newly established National Planning Board devoted a good deal of attention to the example of planning provided by these four countries: Germany, Italy, Russia, and Japan."
-- Friedrich August von Hayek
(1899-1992), Nobel Laureate of Economic Sciences 1974
Source: foreword to the 1972 edition of 'The Road to Serfdom'
http://quotes.liberty-tree.ca/quote_blog/Friedrich.August.von.Hayek.Quote.9F86
"Many who think themselves infinitely superior to the aberrations of Nazism, and sincerely hate all manifestations, work at the same time for ideals whose realization would lead straight to the abhorred tyranny."
-- Friedrich August von Hayek
(1899-1992), Nobel Laureate of Economic Sciences 1974
Source: The Road to Serfdom (1944)
http://quotes.liberty-tree.ca/quote_blog/Friedrich.August.von.Hayek.Quote.A004
AAIP
@Ben.
Thanks for sharing the conversation...
That's good stuff.
Your client may not have had rational reasons for his discomforture, but I think being long the market here is still the same huge, probably wrong, gamble:
China data this week shows it is contracting
30% tax on miners in Australia passes the lower house
Supercommittee fails as expected
Durable goods orders drop
German bunds surprising weakness
Hungary announces they can't make it without help
10 year is down to 1.94..risk off
Automatic budget cuts should be a drag
...and so forth.
Honestly, as far as discussion goes, I think the odds favor a global slowdown in 2012. The Chinese recently called this a "chronic global recession" in their trade talks with this US..that sounds suspiciously like depression in translation...
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/20/us-china-economy-global-idUSTRE7AJ06720111120
...Here's the article about the Chinese..
..It'll sure be interesting.
BinT,
how's the Acreage Sale coming along?
ibid.
....Chatter across European trading desks, since confirmed by the EBA, is that medium- and long-term funding in Europe is now completely frozen. With Rehn still in denial and pointing to the problems in US and China, it seems things just got a little more desperate. Basis swaps at crisis levels, FRA-OIS at crisis levels, European GDP-weighted sovereign risk at all time highs, Belgium and Austria dislocating today, and EURUSD cracking through 1.3350.
Comments: 88Reads: 6,200
Sarkozy: Europe's "Liquidity Run" Has Begun Because There Is An Unsolvable $30 Trillion Problem
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 11/23/2011 - 10:59
Carlyle European Central Bank Fail TARP
No, not that Sarkozy. His half-brother - the one who actually can use a calculator. In an interview on CNBC, the Carlyle group head had the temerity to tell the truth, the whole truth, and use math - that long-forgotten concept which one has to scour various backwater blogs to rediscover - to explain nothing but the truth which is that Europe needs many more trillions than either the EFSF or the ECB can afford to give. Actually, we take that back. The ECB can inject the needed €3-5 trillion, but after that concerns about localized episodes of (hyper)inflation, especially now that Kocherlakota has confirmed that the transmission mechanism between bank reserves and inflation may be broken, will be all too justified. In the meantime, Sarkozy on Europe math fail: "The math i'm working with is very simple. In the US banking sector, we had 3 trillion of wholesale funding that needed to be stabilized, got stabilized by the implementation of TARP which saw the US treasury buy $212 billion worth of preferred in the banking sector to stabilize that $3 trillion, give our banks the time to work through hair problem their problem assets. In Europe, that $3 trillion is $30 trillion. so if you multiply the $212 by 10, you get the $2.12 trillion. In my view, the issues on the European banks are bigger than the issues on the books of the US Banks. So if you want to stabilize that $30 trillion and in my view it's not that you want to, it's that you have to, you do not have a choice, you're going to have to be at least at 2.1 trillion and i suspect it may need to be more." Q.E.D. - there, the math wasn't that difficult, was it?....
http://www.zerohedge.com/
+other good 'stories'..
ibid.
North of the 49th...Thanksgiving is on the second Monday in October...so I've already stuffed myself....also allowing more downtime between turkey days.
You'all have a great Thanksgiving and holiday weekend...and many thanks for the repartee. I figure anyone who can spend time on a blog doing what they enjoy most...has a hell of a lot to be thankful for.
10yr 1.879%
Yowza.
30yr 2.823&
Double yowza.
http://www.finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=DMND
~28.22
speaking of Yowza!
http://www.finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=DMND&ty=c&ta=0&p=m
Double Yowza!
AAIP
http://www.finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=P
~10.85 -8.44%
Pandora..
ibid.
MSM 'Financial Nooze' is the F______ Plague..
I keep hearing ~"Earnings Season is Over"...
then, what about?
Date Earnings release
Nov 22/a NUAN P TIVO STV ALOT BAMM TIV
Nov 23/b DE NJR DSX YGE CCGM
Nov 24 TOPS MLVF FEED VPF PRVT TRBR
Nov 25 AUMN CHNR SBSA REX NTZ ITIC PNRG HKN
Nov 28 THO HI GEDU SCMR IMKTA AVNR GMAN NPD
Nov 29 TIF CPRT BECN FSC OVTI UTI TSRX KONG
Nov 30 SDRL SNPS AEO EXPR TFM UNFI FNSR SMTC
Dec 01 KR AVGO HRB PVH ULTA BIG ASNA UTIW
Dec 02 TEA BTH CVM MSBF HGSH NSEC TIK EEE
Dec 05 DG CASY FGP VRNT FIZZ CMTL ALOG AVAV
~~~~
this thing..
http://www.finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=AZO
better go 'flaps-up'/'anchor down' now/soon, or it's going to be sub-300..in a Hurry..
AAIP
I won't be selling until at least next year....
taxes...
But it is still on the burner...
I always spend more than a little time planning.
(When I don't I usually regret it.)
Bruce
Damn,
Been out hunting most of the afternoon...look at that 10 year.
BinT,
sounds Intelligent..
you know the ol' Adage..
"...in Haste, repent in Leisure.."
ibid.
also, Hope the Holiday is finding you, and yours, Hale & Hearty~
(and, really, that goes for 'all y'all' ! :)
Looks like quite a few made a move for the exits in the final five minutes.
AA finished below 9 bucks.
..Tempting
BinT
BAC held just above 5 bucks.
Last week Lumber made a nice move higher but it has stalled this week. Not sure if last week was a fluke.
***new thread***
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