As I stated last week... I'm going to continue to publish a weekend 'feature' game (NCAA or NFL) here in this space (as well as a link to the blogspace I'm running now which deals exclusively with NCAA/NFL Football & Fantasy Sports)...
WEEK 4 - FEATURE GAME - NCAA
California Golden Bears vs. Washington Huskies (-1)
(3:30 PM - EDT)
I'm using this game as my SEPTEMBER NCAA PICK OF THE MONTH (5 units)... The Golden Bears are getting a point up north... What I mainly like about this game is a revenge motive... The Huskies have had the Golden Bears number the past two years (but that's when they had Jake Locker in town [who is now a Tennessee Titan])... You need an experienced signal caller to get you through tough match-ups... The Huskies failed that test last week traveling to play an out of conference foe (Nebraska) who they have had on the schedule for a few years now (& defeated in the Poinsettia Bowl last December)...
The thing about that game (Poinsettia Bowl) was that for all intents & purposes, Cal 'should' have been playing there (save for a fluky loss to Washington at home at the end of the season)... The loss dropped them to a 5 win season and made them ineligible for bowl consideration...
Of course I think they fully realize this... & also realize that the Pac 12 is now a 2 division conference... Both teams find themselves in, arguably, the tougher division (with Oregon & Stanford)... Wins will be at a premium & I'll take the Golden Bears in this spot...
CALIFORNIA for (5 units)
WEEK 3 - FEATURE GAME - NFL
Kansas City Chiefs at San Diego Chargers (4:05 EDT)
Line: Chargers by 14.5
These LATE GAMES (this week) are a thing of beauty if you know anything about sports wagering... I mean... I don't even know how to explain it to any of you people... You'll either know what I'm talking about, OR you'll think I'm an idiot right away... & never read this blog again... Then, someday a few weeks or months from now, when you've lost all your cash on SURE THINGS, you'll be trying to remember the URL to this blogsite...
Let me start by explaining it to you this way... As of the moment of writing this, here's the PUBLIC SUPPORT% (by the public vs. the sportsbooks [who are naturally just taking the 'other side' of what the public wants to book]), on the 9/25/11 LATE GAMES:
- San Diego (75%) vs. KC
- New York Jets (68%) at Oakland
- Baltimore (94%) at St. Louis
- Atlanta (93%) at Tampa Bay
- Arizona (78%) at Seattle
- Green Bay (90%) at Chicago
- Pittsburgh (90%) at Indy
YGBFKM!!!... What's perhaps even MORE unusual is the number of LATE GAMES (7) + Monday Night = 8... Which means that half the NFL schedule for Week 3 will NOT be played in the 1:00 ET time slot... If you're a newbie, don't damage your brain cells figuring that one out, just trust me in saying it's an unusual circumstance...
It could mean one of several things (but probably will end up meaning a combination of unfathomable results, which, an EXPERIENCED handicapper can spot a mile away)...
The SIMPLE truth is this... If the NFL plays to 'chalk' this weekend (& publicly supported teams WIN), then there's going to be a bloodbath in Vegas... The MORE SIMPLE truth is... IT AIN'T GONNA HAPPEN (which means that there are going to be a lot of 'locks' that don't payoff for their betting faithful)... The fact that MOST of it occurs within this AFTERNOON SUNDAY scenario is intriguing...
I'm going to thresh it out this way (& there's really no other way to do it in this scenario which is even new to me)... You have to first start with the EARLY GAMES and figure out where the chips fall)... I've already identified HOUSTON, BUFFALO, CLEVELAND, MINNESOTA, & JACKSONVILLE as possible teams that the public has shunned as being 'take the points' candidates... My guess is that at least TWO of those will be right (but that's why I put small units on all)...
You seriously need to look at what happen EARLY before you plunge into the afternoon... If I'm WRONG about most of those early games, then most of these LOCKS in the afternoon ARE GOING DOWN...
My prime candidates (going down - to the pointspread) are: CHARGERS, JETS, FALCONS, & maybe, believe it or not... STEELERS... I really have no clue... But the bottom line is that I want to CAUTION everyone here to perhaps 'keep your powder dry'...
The UNITS that I assign to all of these picks will be determined by the eventual outcome of the early games (& how the support percentages change)... Right now... Knowing nothing... I have to take ALL DOGS in the afternoon...
"Attica...Attica...Attica"...
& you thought I was going to talk about Dexter McCluster, Todd Haley, & Norv Turner here right? Sucka!... CHIEFS (for now) for (0 units)...
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Note: I'll continue to use the other blog only as a 'pick' resource for quite awhile (Comments are disabled there)... Whether any of you like it or not...
10 comments:
CV heading up to see LSU-West Virginia tonight...
Kim Delaney Stumbles Through Speech, Is Escorted Off Stage
http://tv.yahoo.com/news/video-kim-delaney-stumbles-speech-escorted-off-stage-183800117.html
She then launched into a halting, perplexing speech about how she's served in the active military, seen injured soldiers come home and attended military funerals — except she hasn't.
"I do that as a job. It's make-believe. I have the luxury to do all of this on a television show," she said, while the crowd grew visibly uncomfortable as Delaney continued. The actress was reportedly escorted off stage before finishing her speech.
According to a local CBS affiliate, the teleprompter was broken and Delaney had to wing the whole thing
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Hmmm... Sound like anyone else we're all familiar with?
Speaking of teleprompters...
New gaffe: Obama hails America's historic building of 'the Intercontinental Railroad'
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/washington/2011/09/obama-gaffe-jobs-act-speech-brent-spence-bridge-ohio.html
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That must be that INTERContinental railroad that goes from the 50 states to reach the 57...
cv--
@ 06:52, there's a Reason why it's called 'Programming'..
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McB,
on S, only got off the 'Synthetic Long'..
Short the Oct 3 Puts ~0.25 net..
AAIP
AAIP,
nice, good luck on that trade, I haven't spent a ton of time on that chart but you might have a really good thing going there.
CV,
gotta hit the showers then I'm headed to read your game write-ups for this week.
I'm in a world of hurt on my fantasy team right now.
picking Da Raiderz
I like your style CV,
very nice job this week on the blog, well worth the read.
Weekly 3LB Update 9/23/11
Somebody needs to teach the West Virginia fans that if you do a "yellow out" in the stadium, you don't do it against a team whose primary color is yellow...
Hey guys. I'm back from the front line of Capitalism (aka Warrenton/Roundtop, TX)...
Looking forward to charts and football.
Sorry about the WA/CA game CV.
Ooh Buffalo just beat New England.
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