YEN (weekly info)-no change (above mid)
trend=up
high= 1.30700
rev= 1.27540; mid= 1.29120
After trading in a tight range the last few weeks the yen appears ready to continue its move higher. It's almost back to the 0.0% retrace. It's still above all SMA's. It's currently making a new weekly 3LB high.
EURCHF (weekly info)-no change (above mid)
trend=no
direction=up (1 bar)
high= 1.2067
rev= 1.0914; mid= 1.1491
Keeping the CHF pegged to the EUR at 1.2000 is not as easy as it seems. This week (and last week) the EUFCHF dipped to 1.1947 and 1.1904.t's holding above SMA(21) but hasn't ventured up to the SMA(55) or SMA(89). I wonder if the SNB will have to go back to the Fed again.
20 comments:
Surprised the futures are green after the Italian downgrade...
BinT
You?!? I am also since ES was down at least 9 overnight.
Hopeful pre-FED trade. I would fade any unnecessary enthusiasm today. My guess is the FED will do little. Why f*** with things when Europe is on a knife edge? It is ECB's turn for a rate cut anyway.
Twist was an interesting concept, but it is unnecessary, and should be left on the table. They should leave well alone for now.
LB
Yes. It definitely could be pre-FED optimism.
What's your take on the 2s30s spread?
2s30s is 305 bps. Not excessive, but flatten this further and banks would suffer. 10s30s is 126 bps which is very stretched. One of these has to give. 10s are clearly overbought on anticipation of Twist.
I can't for the life of me figure out why anyone would or could trade Treasuries here. The market has been really overwhelmed by a massive safety trade demand - from or triggered by Europe, along with bunds, the JPY, gold, and at one time the CHF.
I am neither long nor short Ts, but continue to hold yield-bearing vehicles that will benefit from a low rate environment, sans apocalypse (REITs, JNK, defensives like utilities and telecoms). Given that a medium sized apocalypse is priced in, we feel that USTs, LQD, MBB and MUB are quite vulnerable to an economic non-collapse. The spread products, JNK and HYG actually should outperform unless Europe blows sky high.
We are moderately bullish equities into the Fall, it's a Wall of Worry here, and that's usually helpful. We don't love SPY here, b/c SPY can't rally w/o banks and energy and they just aren't going anywhere into EoY. So we are just trading SPY to utilize the trading range, while holding a pile of divis.
We still think EWJ can run, once the EURJPY unwind ends and when the BoJ finally goes Swiss. Japan isn't yet glowing in the dark and badly needs reconstruction. We like European equities a little more at these fire sale prices. Even the French banks are trading at 0.2-0.3 x book, so there isn't a lot of fat left to trim from these prices.
It's a tough time to make money, but the vix is declining, if unevenly, and usually that means you can quietly accumulate. Perhaps the main thing is simply to avoid the big losses, like the ones that are down the line in the safety trades.
LB,
Old Chap! good to 'read' your presence, again..~
~~
McB (CrackieJim--on previous thread)
http://www.finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=AAPL
~417 1/2
see, I was right, on Thursday, no ~420, by "the Day after Tomorrow.." !!
but, really, that crack was a reference to Saturday (Markets being Closed, and all..)
and, AAPL, has been soo Strong, that if it wasn't Saturday, I wouldn't have been too surprised if it did get ~420, then..
~~~~
and, on the Tangent..
Only Enterprise and Developers Can Bypass Windows Store for Metro Apps
September 19th, 2011
“If Apple’s transitioning of OSX to an iOS-like experience is dumb, Microsoft wants to be dumber with Windows 8.”
How long until both Microsoft and Apple require approval for software to run in their full operating systems?
You think I’m nuts—and then it happens.
Via: Ars Technica:
Microsoft will restrict general distribution of Metro apps to the Windows Store, but grant exceptions to enterprises and developers, allowing them to side-load applications onto Windows 8 devices. While Windows 8 will be an operating system for both desktops and tablets, Microsoft is creating two sets of rules for traditional desktop apps and Metro-style apps, which are optimized for touch screens but will run on any Windows 8 device.
A primer for Windows developers on Microsoft’s website states that distribution of traditional desktop applications will proceed as usual. “Open distribution: retail stores, web, private networks, individual sharing, and so on” will be allowed, Microsoft says. Metro apps, on the other hand, will be “Distributed through the Windows Store. Apps must pass certification so that users download and try apps with confidence in their safety and privacy. Side-loading is available for enterprises and developers.”..."
http://cryptogon.com/?p=24948
AAIP,
there is a higher target at 526 based on the same work I was doing
since they are exact fibos from a projection, if my charts got any value it will likely end in between them
I doubt AAPL goes down hard for at least another week or two
there are fairly clear 13 and 26 week cycles going back to 1/19/09 on it
what I'm trying to figure out though is that if there is a larger cycle pulling on those that will cause inversion in the price at a future expected low date, this might be the signal for the top, but I don't see it happening on this cycle, perhaps in the next quarter
I had charted the AAPl call on 8/30 when stock was at $380's
I just didn't see anything super appealing in the options to want to trade it
reward in the common isn't really what I'm looking for when trading
Rams +13 (on CV's tease with the 49ers) barely squeaked in...
You lose some... & then you WIN some...
Then again... I could have wheeled EITHER team to the 49ers and it would have paid (based on the final score)...
McB,
"...I just didn't see anything super appealing in the options to want to trade it..."
that's going to be 'the tough one', re:AAPL
that Equity, and its Chain, are 'super-owned', and 'super-traded', by Many, including the HedgeFunds..
I know, when I've peeked at the Options Chain, that the Premiums seemed very Fat..
the best I've been able to conjure is a "Max Pain"-type of Trade--of fading Premium near Expiry..
~
the 'Cyclical' work seems to be on the right track..
also, "Everybody" luvs the AAPL-"Story", and it's a major % of significant Market Indices/Averages--good for pumping, to mask the underlying 'deterioration'--should it 'resurface'..
ibid.
AAIP
yeah, that's exactly what I saw, the premiums were just huge on the call options and I couldn't find a decent way to fund them by selling puts, some of the out months OTM calls were really up there
you swim with great whites playing options in that name
McB,
to, earlier, Crack, about ~"your Coin has ~3 sides, just, like mine.."
"...Investing is all about probabilities and the odds do suggest that for now, we could be in a very real risk-on moment (right when no one reading the news thinks we should be). Of course, should a Lehman-like event occur, all bets are off since the possibility does remain that bonds could spike once again and reach for the 2009 relative peak (March 2009 equities lows)…”..."
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/09/what-does-the-ratio-between-bondsstock-suggest/
AAIP
Mel,
re:
AAIP
Mykola Prysyazhnyuk...Now try and figure out a mnemonic for that.
~~
right? GL w/that~ :)
I've long though that, come 'name-spelling Time', Vowels must have been ~Trading at a Premium--when 'the Slavs' were "at the Desk"..
ibid.
AAIP
I don't really like that chart at TBP, it's not finished yet
there needs to be a baseline comparison behind the ratio line produced of one of the two components within the ratio otherwise that person can blab all they want about probabilities but you cannot assess them from the ratio alone you need to compare to the absolute prices within the ratio, further, the more I looked at it, I would not use TLT as part of the ratio but that's just me
he just needed to take two more steps to make that chart powerful for readers, apply the baseline overlapped with the ratio line and add an EMA for cross-over signals. An EMA on a weekly chart would probably work best.
too bad they left it so generic, also, I did sort of laugh when probabilities got brought up in the context of that particular chart, it has a sample size of 2, maybe 3.
Before error rate on any mechanical system drops to 5% you need 400 trades, another reason why I don't think you use TLT there.
for shorter term with the ETF's I've been keeping an eye on TIP:TLT, but again there aren't enough examples to generate mechanical signals from it
Mc22,
good points..
(part of why I was referring to 'text snip'--in specific..~)
AAIP
I guess the high must have worn off as the market failed to close higher.
they passed the AAPL 420 pipe around early today Ra.
422.86 HOD on AAPL
http://www.finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=AAPL
~~~
http://www.finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=S
anyone like Sprint, thinking it may be 'looking "Constructive"' ..
AAIP
for your "Shark Jumping"-'pleasure'..
September 7/Los Angeles/Los Angeles Times -- Five Guys Burgers & Fries, Subway, Panera, Starbucks and McDonald's are America's best and most popular chains, according to a Zagat survey.
More than 6,000 participants responded to the "2011 Fast Food Survey," which crowned Five Guys as Best Burger and Most Popular Large Fast Food Chain.
Not to be outdone, McDonald's took honors for Best Fast Food Value, Best Value Menu, Best Fries, Best Breakfast Sandwiches, Best Drive-Thru, Top Facilities (mega chains) and Most Child Friendly. Subway was first in the Most Popular Mega-Chain category, and Starbucks topped the Most Popular Quick-Refreshment Chain and Best Coffee lists. Best Salads and Top Facilities (large chains) props went to Panera.
Full-service chains also made the list, including Red Robin, Cheesecake Factory, Outback Steakhouse, IHOP and Chuck E. Cheese's.
The full survey results are available at zagat.com.
http://www.preparedfoods.com/articles/zagat-ranks-fast-food
ibid.
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