ES (weekly info)-no change (below mid)
trend=up
high= 1342.50
rev= 1289.50; mid= 1315.63
It's a little after 23:00 ET and it's a bloodbath in the futures. If somehow this turns around before the open I will be astounded. Pictured is a 15 min chart of the AH carnage.
Nikkei Futures (weekly info)WEEKLY REVERSAL new low 10005.00
trend=no
direction=down (1 bar)
low= 10005.00
rev= 10830.00; mid= 10417.50
Nikkei Futures oddly enough was a week behind in having a weekly 3LB reversal down. It's looking like this week will be confirmation. This is a log chart so that candle is no joke. Most of the Asia markets are participating in this move down. It's 23:19 ET so it's still early in the trading session and the final move down is not yet known.
TED SpreadThings are also not well in euroland...
87 comments:
funny: Ashraf Laidi
Will be away from comp during fomc. Go straight down to last parag and see if there are any DISSENTERS. If not euro will pop higher
@foghorn
Yeah... Now there's some radioactive waste to dump on top of the Great Pacific Garbage Patch...
http://www.greenfudge.org/wp-content/uploads/2009/07/garbage_patch.jpg
I predict there will be PREDICTIONS...
More of them... as far as the eye can see...
WHEAT is at a 50% re-tracement of the GAP UP from last November to the Feb HIGH...
Looking at GAP closure...
Isn't there someone here... ANEN?... Who has made a comment or two on gaps?
Interesting because the rise in WHEAT started with a GAP at about 450... Then a HUGE gap at 675... Then a top out of around 900...
A double in 7 months... 1 month to re-trace 50% of that move (most of it in the last 7 days)...
>> BinT @ 7:19 AM
>> http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2011/03/14/obama-urged-seize-reins-crises-pile/
>> "Gardiner called the U.S. position an "unusual abdication of leadership by the world's only superpower."
Obama, I believe, has decided to drag his feet on Libya in order to allow Gaddafi to retake Libya, for the Saudis and Bahrainians to crush protesters.
I'm angry over this, because we hastily invaded Iraq and brought instability to a stable (albeit shitty) situation while in Libya we are forgoing exploiting a chaotic situation where the people were actively revolting against a dictator and would've thanked us (the way Dumsfeld delusionally imagined would happen in Iraq). Why? Because Obama fears that too much change too quickly would hurt US oil imports.
The man -- at least if I'm reading the tea leaves correctly -- quite simply sickens me.
...
And his speech about Japan? "We stand with Japan..." That sounded insincere to me.
dollar moving up.. uup at 21.97 now.. that is unusual following an fomc !
that'll all come back to us wunsacon, in due time
Yes it Can!
CV, in cases of a strong retracement like that (e.g., on wheat), what "tends to happen" afterwards?
FOMC - no dissenters, no mention of QE3.
BUT the Fed likes to wait a few days before making announcements.
Ben, I should've listened to George Carlin.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xIraCchPDhk
If you ask me...
This is another thing that sucks about this earthquake/tsunami...
The fall in commodities (due to the de-leveraging), is essentially letting Bernanke OFF THE HOOK...
Worse... If the markets correct further, but COMMODITIES BASE at a higher level than last July, then it just means they're going to scream HIGHER when QE3 & QE18 are announced...
This is what I've been saying for quite some time now... Like 2008 - a 50% drop in a few weeks is quite spectacular... But remember that commodities bottomed MONTHS before the S&P did...
Almost ALL [commodities] later took out their 2008 highs... S&P... no...
So while Bernanke has his sights set on keeping the S&P afloat... More & more go on food stamps...
i'm not sure i will believe it if 1280 holds again.
...or listened to some uber-skeptics on this board who were scoffing at Obama as early as...um..as early as he announced.
I'm telling everyone here...
Between now and August 2011 will be the last GOOD chance to stock up on food (before prices really get out of hand - or things become hard to find altogether)...
i'm not sure i will believe it if 1280 holds again
That might bring about wardrobe malfunctions, and all kinds of stuff like that...
I still can't believe we're 20 handles up from the lows.
>> The fall in commodities (due to the de-leveraging), is essentially letting Bernanke OFF THE HOOK...
Totally.
>> Worse... If the markets correct further, but COMMODITIES BASE at a higher level than last July, then it just means they're going to scream HIGHER when QE3 & QE18 are announced...
Yeah. I took a decent hit today but will hold. I'm not using leverage. Congress and Bernanke got my back. (Those F-ers.)
while we have a little break in the action here
this:
"If the markets correct further, but COMMODITIES BASE at a higher level than last July, then it just means they're going to scream HIGHER when QE3 & QE18 are announced..."
oh really? how come then in 2008 during QE1 and unlimited credit, commodities tanked anyway?
sort of hard to square that one....
DAX -3.19%, FT MIB -2.01%, IBEX -0.83%, ATHEN -4.33%, FTST -15.38%, NIKKEI -10.55%, $SSEC -1.41%, HANG SENG -2.86%, KOSPI -2.40%
and yet we're on our way to possibly closing UP. YGBFKM
I'd like to go ahead and point out that on a 60 min closing basis, the sp500 never closed below 1272.
Hopefully nobody sold the morning lows.
At this point, though, decent resistance between 1286 and 1296 (gap fill).
phi retrace of today here....Neely had a figure slightly above that....bulls are putting in a real effort here.
>> http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/breaking-news/hundreds-shot-in-bahrain-protest/story-e6frf7jx-1226022185075
The violence "should be stopped".
@ben
oh really? how come then in 2008 during QE1 and unlimited credit, commodities tanked anyway
I'm not going to get into this argument again...
You say they "tanked"... Sure - but to say that is only quantifying it in a sense of PEAK to trough (mostly due to massive de-leveraging as most of the various sectors - when viewed as a basket - had the BEST performance since the 2007 highs - I'm talking crude, PM's, metals, & softs)...
So you could say we're practically repeating that now...
I've pointe this out numerous times... FORGET how much they "tanked" in 2008 (peak to trough percentage wise)...
Instead - look at WHEN & WHERE they troughed... Almost ALL in November 2008 (when the first bouts of TARP & all that crap were starting to get put into motion)...
The S&P lagged... It hit bottom in March 2009...
And WHY?
Probably because the FINANCIALS (mainly banks) were holding it back...
Then you get the FASB rule change in April 2009 (probably the banks were tipped off to that in March '09 to front run it - along with OBAMA hitting the teleprompter saying what great PROFIT to EARNINGS ratios stocks had... no doubt all SPOON-FED by the bankers...
And we're off to the races...
Same thing again in 2010...
Everyone tipped off in July to what was going to be said in Jackson Hole... QE2...
Off to the races... The difference was that everything went up in synch... But commodities still outperformed (especially inversely to the dollar)...
I don't see how hard that is to see...
seems the 30 min spx/spy ran into 20 ema electrical fence..
>> oh really? how come then in 2008 during QE1 and unlimited credit, commodities tanked anyway?
sort of hard to square that one....
Ben, during that time, the Fed had not taken over the banks yet. It actually let someone, LEH, fail. It eased interest rates but had not yet blessed mark-to-myth.
But, now, here's the way I see things:
- The PD's as GSE's, essentially. They are not private firms.
- The fraudulent credit is being replaced with real cash, fresh from the printer.
- Covering up the financial fraud is considered "in the interests of national security".
The scam will continue until morale improves.
CV ... quicker on the draw...
Okay, I gotta head to work. Adios, folks.
using 30 min candles.. another slv triangle on the day formed now..
also on spy if you use yesterday's high for starting point..
slv also looking very h&s-ish on 4 day 30 min if you "connect the dots"
i did a lot of those as a young one : )
brilliant traders.. took EWJ above 10..
oh brother.. look at fxe..
tlt rather high considering..
CV,
yes, I heard this before, lag time, thanks.
and I'm not just going to forget about it, this is what a technician does, we study charts, we look for correlations. Your dates are wrong anyway and you are re-writing history like many others, go back again and look, QE DID NOT start in November 2008, try august and before around the same time many of the commodities were peaking last time, and they crashed right through after they did more and so your lag time theory that I've heard numerous times now happily explains it all away. DL was fond of this rationale, as I recall.
there's this little hole in the money printing analysis anyway which is that even if we monetized all the debt in the system, there is no more "money" (cash + credit) in the system than there was before without credit expansion. It's the same amount.
As for this line:
"I don't see how hard that is to see..."
yes yes, it's all so easy isn't it? glad you think so, I don't. but here's the rub, you didn't "see" anything, this is your own theory, whether or not its true you can't prove and neither can I, so spare me about how easy it is to see it all.
Once QE2 is extended and markets put in a rally greater or equal to the one from summer 2010 to 2/18 I'll concede to you.
Rules Are Made To Be Broken
By Jamie Coleman || March 15, 2011 at 19:10 GMT
I counsel never to fade strong trends. Ever. EUR is in a strong trend.
This time is different. Fade it. Sell it with a stop above 1.4050 for a steep slide…trail stops lower as we drop.
Should we break the 1.750 area, we should be good for 1.3500 in the next few weeks…Good risk/reward.
It is also likely to be painless. The stop will be hit before ya know it…
The following recall have been announced:
MATILDA JANE GIRL'S CHELSA DRESS
DETAILS: Girl's Chelsa sleeveless sundress imported by Matilda Jane LLC of Fort Wayne, Ind., sold at in-home sales events and online from February 1 to 25, 2011. They were made in China.
WHY: The buttons may come off, posing a choking hazard.
INCIDENTS: One report of an incident. No injuries reported.
HOW MANY: About 1,500
FOR MORE: Call 260-424-3511; visit www.matildajaneclothing.com ; e-mail recall(at)matildajaneclothing. www.matildajaneclothing.com
Copyright 2011 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.
View all of today's news »
http://news.ino.com/headlines/?newsid=68976868271900
nice, nothing says 'Friendship' like selling shoddy Slave-made Goods to your 'nearest y dearest' ..
AAIP
" The fraudulent credit is being replaced with real cash, fresh from the printer."
again, nice theory, reality is not this. some of it was a swap, like you describe above, which creates no net inflation at all, it's the same amount of "money" as before, it's just in different form.
monetization is something different
that people believe we will monetize a quadrillion is very confusing to me, the confidence in such an outcome even more confusing, it reveals I great belief in central banks that I simply do not carry.
"...some of it was a swap, like you describe above, which creates no net inflation at all, it's the same amount of "money" as before, it's just in different form..."
McB,
what would you rather to be 'taking to Market'? 'Fresh Cash'?, or, some, nice, moldering, Toxic Assets (with no known Bid)?
ibid.
c wave over? "everyone" seems to think so.. that is some spx candle on the day..
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/03/15/meltdown-macroeconomics/
And yes, this does mean that the nuclear catastrophe could end up being expansionary, if not for Japan then at least for the world as a whole. If this sounds crazy, well, liquidity-trap economics is like that — remember, World War II ended the Great Depression.
"what would you rather to be 'taking to Market'? 'Fresh Cash'?, or, some, nice, moldering, Toxic Assets (with no known Bid)?"
What?
You know anyone, or entity that was paying for apples and bread with the mezzanine trache of subprime mortgages they owned in 2005? You know anyone that was using them to get big truckloads of silver and gold?
If you are trying to imply, as CV has, that banks are using fresh hundo's to buy physical assets, then show me where, prove it to me, this should be pretty "easy" to find out yes?
As for what would I take to market, it's not a matter of what I'd "rather" have, it's a matter of what the person selling me goods will take from me in exchange for those goods, that's the whole point of my statement above, all money in the US is credit, if we replace old credit with new dollar bills, which are also.....credit
there is no difference
Seems I missed a rally. 4th grade seems very nice.
Jennifer:
don't worry. If the ocean breezes are taking cesium to Hawaii and the west coast, I am willing to bet that will be great uncertainty and gnashing of teeth...
Charlie Sheen in a mask?
Fortunately for me -- no travel plans to Hawaii
probably meaningless but the spx is still in a downtrend on the 60 min chart.. just sayn'
Karen,
I have some trouble with the c wave being over
there's no real relationship between it and the a wave, on cash the a wave was 48.81 points using intraday extremes whereas into today's lows I have 69.22 pts from the 3/3/11 high.
I would have expected the c wave to be bigger than this in relation to the a wave.
What do you think AT?
McB,
the 'Banks' were swapping their G*rbage for 'Fresh Cash', no?
~~
also,
http://whatreallyhappened.com/#axzz1GhW50XWD
interesting Stories being highlighted..
seems the Japan/TEPCO Nuke 'problem' may be worse that that being 'reported'..
ibid.
O, and..
J-,
re: "vega", de nada ~ Glad it helped..
still, that is one hell of a reversal today by the bulls
let's see what happens with the euro tomorrow.. fxa weak today, too.
Buying programs just kicked in (again).
All fundamental/wave/personal analysis aside, that is shaping up to be a big reversal candle. That's gonna make some people go long.
in any case.. $vix still elevated..
"the 'Banks' were swapping their G*rbage for 'Fresh Cash', no?"
that was a late 2008 early 2009 action item, feel free to look at a chart of any commodity during that period, so far as the information shows that type of swap has not been done in over a year, we are now at pure monetization which I'll concede is inflationary so long as debts aren't collapsing at a faster rate, which they most certainly are not right now.
if they had continued to swap out shitty debts for cash BAC would not have just created a "bad bank" for trillions in mortgages, and this is to say nothing of the 1,600 trillion in derivatives that are still out there.
regardless, it still doesn't change the dynamics of what I'm talking about, I'm simply continuing to approach this conversation by way of math, not a theory on what Bernanke can and can't do, if there's anything we should have hoped to have learned since the 1700's it's that central banks do in fact have limits, the world does not bow to their every desire.
anyone look at the fcx candle?
it would seem that tons of people went long today, all kinds of big names came out early or intraday to say they were buying.
there are lots of stocks down 25% or more since 2/18.
there was another 5.3 in Japan in the last hour..
the funniest thing about the last few days is this sense I get that many people think.....if we could just get through the situation in Japan surely all our problems will be solved
cause, you know, there were no issues whatsoever prior to the earthquake, all was well.
From Corey:
Keep the pre-market levels in mind as they all break the major inflection points in all these markets – namely the 1,300 then 1,275 in the S&P 500, $1,400 in Gold, and $99.50 in Oil.
While we’re under these levels, the game is changed as support is broken (and markets are collapsing under these levels).
If by chance these markets move quickly back above these levels, we would label this a bear trap. If not, then the technical definitions move from “just a retracement into support” to the more ominous “potential early trend reversals.”
nevermind my fcx comment.. seems stockcharts had a bad tick down to the 22s.. that or it flash crashed and they negated the trades.. chart is fixed now. too bad i didn't screen save it!
MackieFear,
I hear ya, one would hope that ~"..if there's anything we should have hoped to have learned since the 1700's it's that central banks do in fact have limits.." would be the case..
sadly, one of the reasons it isn't is that CBs have been effective in 'deflecting'*Reality, in the short-run, on many occasions..
~~
anyway, Charts like
http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=RGR
make me smile..
AAIP
i'm going with we make a lower low tomorrow.. i don't care what shade the spx candle is.. on the close.. that dax chart has me convinced : )
LOL! this changes on a dime but: Mr Top Step
chatter = MOC imbalanc sell 125mm
...cause, you know, there were no issues whatsoever prior to the earthquake, all was well...
McB,
no doubt, as you've been pointing out, 'Equities' had 'peaked out' ~2/18 (not 3/10) ...
ibid.
DAX is a horrible sight isn't it?
and to think, behind the scenes of the Japanese quake they have "solved the euro crisis"
http://www.businessweek.com/ap/financialnews/D9LV04VO0.htm
1280 may get taken out to the downside before the close.
Karen,
I'm gonna say that if we make a lower low tomorrow that would probably surprise an awful lot of people.
CNBS: "Bulls stage amazing comeback in spite of everything".
Marketwatch: "Stocks close well off their lows which is bullish".
Yahoo: "Stocks shake off early bearish view, close near highs"
Todays MSM headlines
wow, right on cue..
...Q: How and why was the Fed created?
A: Congress passed the Federal Reserve Act in 1913. The legislation was signed into law by President Woodrow Wilson on Dec. 23, 1913. The Fed began operating in 1914. It was created in response to a series of bank panics that plagued the United States during the 19th and early 20th centuries. Those panics led to bank failures and business bankruptcies that roiled the economy.
Copyright 2011 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.
http://news.ino.com/headlines/?newsid=68976868376501
Fresh, pro-FedRes Propaganda, straight from the MSM..(woocoodanode?)
AAIP
check that spy 60 min closing candle..
wouldn't sub 1280 be something? well sub 1282 works for me.. a close well below yesterday's low.
staying on the C train for now.
ben.. we've got to make a lower low tomorrow.. this JBTFD is staggering in its stupidity. i realize that it is better to be lucky than smart, but a fool and his money are soon parted.
more pure genius:
U.S. stocks end off day's lows: Dow off 138 as upbeat Fed offsets Japan meltdown
03/15/2011 04:02:46 PM
"It was created in response to a series of bank panics that plagued the United States during the 19th and early 20th centuries. Those panics led to bank failures and business bankruptcies that roiled the economy."
LIES! DAMN LIES!
not to mention, the Fed hasn't stopped one single panic since 1914, we had a fricken depression just over a decade later, they've been right in the middle of every boom/bust since, enabling the insanity of social mood/the human herding impulse.
so, if they can't even do what they were *supposedly put in place to do, then why not just put them out of their misery?
who's with me?
Karen,
I hear you, tomorrow should be fun either way I suppose.
Ra,
very nice headlines there, amazing really, I suppose anything could be bullish right?
the yahoo headline is especially awesome "close near highs"
wtf??? that's just too funny, we still got rocked again today
oh well, I'm just glad I have tiger blood, no matter what happens, I'm winning.
"who's with me?"
McB,
"End the Fed."
AAIP
I'm with you, ben, I'm with you : )
Crude Oil 98.51 -3.68 -3.58
Natural Gas 4.024 +0.048 +1.21
Corn 636 -30 -4.50
Soybeans 1270 -70 -5.22
30yr Bond 121.3750 +0.6250 +0.52
10yr Note 120.343750 +0.156250 +0.13
NY Gold 1397.9 -27.0 -1.89
NY Silver 34.485 -1.355 -3.77
Emini S&P 1279.00 -11.50 -0.89
Emini Nasdaq 2261.25 -28.25 -1.23
Emini Dow 11810 -116 -0.97
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX
that 'Paperback' Chart is something else..
AAIP
I'm totally spent right now team
after this meeting, I think it's time for a tall frou frou
see you guys later
okay, later all! AR, thanks for setting up Part 2..
in the next latest hour Japan has had a 4.9 and a 4.6 (the 4.9 may be a downgrade from the 5.x i posted earlier.)
7 handles down from high vs 20 handles up from low qualifies as closing near highs in the MSM textbook.
ROR
Japan: Electricity Shortages Could Last for Months
March 15th, 2011
The electricity generation question is the one I’m most curious about. How does Japan keep-the-lights-on, so to speak, going forward?
—Implications of Japanese Earthquake
Via: Reuters:
Japan’s earthquake has left a gaping hole in the nation’s power capacity that looks set to last months, threatening to make economic recovery far more feeble than hoped.
The first rolling power cuts in the history of the giant Tokyo Electric Power Co (TEPCO) have already closed many plants, with Toyota shutting down until at least Wednesday.
Rolling three-hour blackouts have wrecked the clockwork precision of Japan’s railways while a thousand schools across Tokyo cancelled classes. Even Tokyo’s ubiquitous neon signs have gone dark, a big blow to confidence in a country that lives by routine and order.
With a new explosion at a nuclear plant in Fukushima threatening a far more serious radiation leak, the power shortage will not get better anytime soon.
“It looks like Japan could be in a “power down” state for a protracted period,” said Stephen Roberts, Nomura’s chief economist for Australia. “That’s what makes it different from other major quakes.”...
http://cryptogon.com/?p=21160
this 'Japan'-thing looks far from 'over'..
ibid.
Last updated at 3:11 PM on 13th March 2011
Comments (7) Add to My Stories Around 800 people had to be rescued from their cars after a blizzard in North Dakota made roads impassable.
Motorists were yesterday forced to abandon their vehicles after 60mph winds created whiteouts and plunging temperatures turned roads to ice rinks throughout the state.
Traffic came to a grinding halt and there were multiple pileups that caused more delay. Miraculously there were reports of only minor injuries...
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1365752/Terrifying-ordeal-800-motorists-rescued-cars-blizzard-sweeps-U-S-state.html#ixzz1GhpDLy00
WTF? did anyone else hear about this?
ibid.
Japan has been rocked by 18 5.0 or greater today.. a 5.3 just hit:
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsww/Quakes/quakes_big.php
I am going to make a prediction. I think I will see if I'm any good at this:
PPI tomorrow up 1.1%. Ahhhhhh. Easy.
make that 19.. and a 5.7
I want to say one more thing about the Fed and "money"
time and time again it has been proven that no matter how much liquidity is provided in a systemic banking failure that the Fed cannot stop it, no fed can, all the Fed's combined can't.
Right now, I still believe the threat of that is above a 50% probability and so I've hardly taken this outcome off the table as others seem to have done, and therefore I would continue to discount trillion dollar programs and all the liquidity they supposedly provide.
Again, I have points at which I'll claim the Fed has won....we aren't there yet though.
Ben,
every day that 'people' use FRNs is a(nother) day 'the Fed(Res) wins'..
AAIP
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-15/japan-nuclear-meltdown-risk-spurs-shortage-at-u-s-radiation-drug-makers.html
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