A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection.
Creditcane™: Somehow I became discombobulated. I guess I'm more of a morning event.
SPXTakuri day (failed to confirm hammer). Midpoint below EMA(10). Held SMA(89). Held the 38.2% retrace (1278.72). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 1307.40). QE2infinity. "JBTFD" nuff said.
DXYGravestone doji day. Midpoint below EMA(10). further below the 14.6% retrace (77.54). Below all SMA's. New low on daily 3LB changes (reversal is 77.28).
VIXBearish long day (yet closed higher). Midpoint above EMA(10). Way above SMA(144). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 16.72). Approaching monthly 3LB mid.
GOLDBearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). No test of 0.0% retrace. Now below SMA(21). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 1437.70). Now below upper trend line. Must have the precious.
AUDJPYBearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Now below SMA(233). Also now below its 61.8% retrace (0.7995). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 0.8243).
JNKHigh wave doji day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failed SMA(144). Failed its 14.6% retrace (39.88). Still below lower trend line. New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 40.33).
SILVERBearish long day. Still above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). No test 0.0% retrace. Tested and held upper trend line. Daily 3LB reversal down (reversal is 36.05).
10YR YIELDBullish long day. No test of 0.0% retrace at 37.44. Held SMA(89). Midpoint below EMA(10). Still below the 23.6% retrace (34.11). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 34.64).
DJ TRANS AVGTakuri day. Still below SMA(89). Midpoint below EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 5285.52). Tested and held weekly 3LB reversal.
CRBBearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Now below SMA(55). Failed the 38.2% retrace (338.92). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 354.45).
BKXHammer day (again). Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and held SMA(89). Daily 3LB reversal down (reversal is 53.31). Still failing weekly 3LB reversal price.
EEMBullish long day (still closed lower). Midpoint below EMA(10). Failed SMA(144). Held above its 38.2% retrace (45.06). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 45.08).
30YR BOND (weekly)Weekly candle turning into a long week. Now it's above its SMA(55) and 38.2% retrace (121.388). A higher weekly close will cause it to start trending up on the weekly 3LB.
28 comments:
39 earthquakes off Japan coast TODAY
9 in 3 minutes
Shake, rattle and roll baby.
Let me add, my condolences go out to these folks.
Wish I could do more.
foghorn
http://yokosonews.com/live/
According to these folks,
No News conference tonight
Make of that what you will.
foghorn
http://www.radiationnetwork.com/
A radiation map of US with nuke sites.
foghorn
"ben22 said...
Karen,
I have some trouble with the c wave being over
there's no real relationship between it and the a wave, on cash the a wave was 48.81 points using intraday extremes whereas into today's lows I have 69.22 pts from the 3/3/11 high.
I would have expected the c wave to be bigger than this in relation to the a wave.
What do you think AT?"
~~~~~~~
If this is an expanding triangle, as Neely thinks it might be (and, I'm becoming a buyer of that idea), then there should NOT be any Fibbo relationship between the waves...
That's a "feature" of expanding triangles that make them different than contracting triangles.
awesome, thanks AT,
for the Expanding, we'd still need to go lower then, still doesn't look right to me, was thinking the c wave still needs to be bigger?
Here's one pundit, Peter Grandich, that I like a lot and has at least advised a little bit more common sense than say....Jim Cramer, or that Jackass Altucher:
"IMHO, the events unfolding have too many potential variables to ride into with a sword and shield. We need to see the dust settle (no pun intended). For now the mother of all gold and silver bull markets remains intact and selective exposure to equities related to such is okay. Being liquid with the rest is the safe versus sorry route until further notice."
here we go, in case anyone else is interested:
In an Expanding Triangle, wave-A is the shortest wave, wave-C is between 101% and 161.8% of wave-A and wave-E is usually from 101% to 161.8% of wave-C. In rare cases, where the Expansion is concluding a major market advance or decline, wave-E can get "out of control," producing a "blow-off" or "meltdown" which could make wave-E as much as 261.8% of wave-A or wave-C.
Thanks for the triangle info, Ben. Nikkei up more than 300 points 7 min into their trading day.
"here we go, in case anyone else is interested:
In an Expanding Triangle, wave-A is the shortest wave, wave-C is between 101% and 161.8% of wave-A and wave-E is usually from 101% to 161.8% of wave-C. In rare cases, where the Expansion is concluding a major market advance or decline, wave-E can get "out of control," producing a "blow-off" or "meltdown" which could make wave-E as much as 261.8% of wave-A or wave-C."
1344-1294=50
1332-1261=71
50x1.382=69.1
A close fibo relationship there.
mcHahppy-
welcome back dude- I was wondering where you wandered off to
McHappy!
whats up man? how have you been?
if the c wave is over I think the real test here will be see what this d wave can do, it should be smaller than the b wave and we've already bounced 20 points off the low, we'll see what tomorrow brings.
http://www.cringely.com/2011/03/is-anything-nuclear-ever-really-super-safe-small-and-simple/
Best analysis of the nuke in Japan I have seen.
I'll start by saying END THE FED... YES! FOR CRYING OUT LOUD - END THE FED!...
Now this...(from other thread)
I hear ya, one would hope that ~"..if there's anything we should have hoped to have learned since the 1700's it's that central banks do in fact have limits.." would be the case..
sadly, one of the reasons it isn't is that CBs have been effective in 'deflecting'*Reality, in the short-run, on many occasions...
---
Let's look at that... With the HIGHEST respect for MATH & WAVES... I'll offer the following bullet points...
- It is statistically irrelevant to analyze the success rate of any central banking policy system since 1700 (in terms of "preventing" or "facilitating" an economic collapse)... My reason(s) for saying such run the gamut from mercantilism, to exploration, to colonization, to revolution, to standing armies, to guerillia warfare tactics, to civil wars, to bullion lode discoveries, to mining, to theft, to industrialization, to socialism, to communism, democracy & independence, to slavery, suffrage, gilded ages, temperance & prohibition, world wars, genocide, nepotism, radio, television, nuclear proliferation, publication, oligarchy, civil rights, drugs, nuclear "non" proliferation, social welfare, global warming, internet...
NEED I GO ON?
Ultimately - I agree that central banks control SQUAT given a long enough time frame...
But I'm going to agree on the "deflecting" concept (based on the WILL of the people, acting in selfish interest), to have the right COCKTAIL of the aforementioned elements to accrue benefits to themselves...
In summary - I believe that in the PRESENT edition you have the following important ingredients...
- A social class ADDICTED to credit & ENSLAVED to the notion the their "leaders" are capable of keeping the party going (I'm NOT one of those people - but when I talk to 10 people at large, and I'm perceived as the outcast - I have to admit something is at work that I don't understand)...
- A complicit board of bankers, politicians, and elites who act with impunity... Worse - the people BEG them to create "fixes"
- A communications media which is essentially "thought seeding" (and mostly complicit with the bankers & politicians)...
---
I don't know... I'm just thinking that for the banking system to come crashing down, there's going to be the need for a lot HEAVIER ARTILLERY...
So I'm going to take the OTHER SIDE to this bet...
"Once QE2 is extended and markets put in a rally greater or equal to the one from summer 2010 to 2/18 I'll concede to you."
My only TWEAK to that bet will be that the RALLY you refer to... relates to commodities, crude, & PM's...
To make it simple... I'll just take a BASKET of everything listed on the daily FINVIZ wall...
---
Of course then I'm sure it will be argued as to whether the formal "announcement" of QE18 came on "x/x/xxxx" (when in reality it is already a foregone conclusion [as Marc Faber says], and the lag time that it takes to "leak" it to the PD's to frontrun)...
END THE FED!
Ironically - We seem to want to end the FED for 'different' reaons...
- You seem to want to end the Fed because they're some benign organization that has no effect on anything whatsoever (so what's the use)?
- I want to end the Fed because I believe them to be a manipulative cartel that with all their TAMPERING, have wreaked havoc by allowing bubble after bubble to be created to the point that there seems to be NO rectifying the debt mountain...
The European Union's energy commissioner Guenther Oettinger said today that the Japanese nuclear disaster is a lot worse than what Japan is declaring. In fact, he believes it could be an apocalypse:
There is talk of an apocalypse and I think the word is particularly well chosen [...] I hope that it doesn't happen, but we can't rule out that the worst case scenario [a complete meltdown a la Chernobyl] happens in the next few hours or days.
The European view on the subject is way darker than what the IAEA, the Japan government and most of the United States' media is portraying.
Oettinger said that the situation is "almost completely out of control" and that it's only going to get worse as workers get evacuated. Nuclear emergency experts believe that you can't keep the situation from escalating without enough personnel on site, pointing at the 50 engineers now at the nuclear complex. Spanish radiobiology scientist Eduard Rodríguez-Farré says that Fukushima is like a "slow-motion camera Chernobyl". According to him, the situation is now "running wild."...
http://m.gizmodo.com/5782239/european-officials-japan-nuclear-situation-is-out-of-control
ibid.
So what I'm saying... PRICE WISE... Is that commodity prices will not fully retrace the gains we've seen since July 2010...
And if they DO... Then the TRADE-OFF will mean that you're really not going to find a lot of items on the shelves that you used to...
Of course...
When I read something like the (10:09) post, then ALL BETS ARE OFF...
How can ANYBODY predict an outcome like that?
END THE FED
Sure....They couldn't even get 50 senators to block the re-appointement of bernak last year, the only real power they have over the FED.
It's their money, literally, their name is on it.
End the fed-
You are walking in an alley and get a guy who puts a gun to your head. He says give me your wallet. You say "no, give me your gun and your wallet".
70's movies aside, it's not gonna happen.
Of course ben loves the end the fed crowd, it completely derails any honest discussion of their lack of oversight, he just has to defend their right to exist, which no one is really questioning anyway.
Ben and Ron are best friends, just like Bush and Ahmadinejad, they need each other to stay in power.
Well maybe if we could elect some Chilean nationals to the US Senate, we could have a hope of ending the Fed (or it's masters)...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GFWzDFjBKUw
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oygBg6ETYIM&feature=related
bob-
intriguing article- maybe what is happening now will bring in a new era in nuclear energy-
smaller and more containable makes sense
chet.. zerohedge
tomorrow's numerological meme: 9/11/01 + 3/10/11 = 12/21/12
http://yokosonews.com/live/
Putting out real numbers now
This is a full-fledged meltdown
Workers coming back to site.
foghorn
Japanese gov reminds of Soviet gov and US gov
No credibility, talk in circles.
What an incredible circle jerk
foghorn
More info on thorium reactors: http://energyfromthorium.com/2011/01/09/liquid-fuel-nuclear-reactors/
Info on the BWR reactors in Japan (design, emergency shutdown): http://energyfromthorium.com/2011/03/15/fd-thoughts/
Reactor problems caused by tsunami knocking out power sources used in shutdown.
Reuters Top News
FLASH: NHK reporting quake with preliminary magnitude of 6.0 hits east Japan
10 minutes ago
it's not up on the quake map yet but that site is delayed normally..
http://i52.tinypic.com/2wbuy3q.jpg
A close-up of what looks to be #3.
A gaping hole in the side of the bottom panel.
foghorn
Just checked.
It's up now.
foghorn
Praise to the McHappy...
And Bob too, on the same evening...
Good stuff.
Equities go lower. Aint over yet.
This action reminds I so much of late April/early May of last year...
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