TRADERS ANONYMOUS: Morning Corner 3.16.11

Morning Corner 3.16.11

DXY (weekly info)
-no change (below mid)
trend=down
low= 76.40
rev= 78.04; mid= 77.22

It started out this week as a safe haven. That idea seems to have been kicked to the curb as it is now looking to make another weekly low.

3 Month vs Overnight Spread (daily info)

Since January 2011 the spread has been steadily increasing. But it's not the 3 month libor increasing causing the spread to increase. It's the overnight libor that's been decreasing. DECREASING. Do the eurozone banks really trust each other? Or is it the fact that the ECB is backstopping?

220 comments:

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Bruce in Tennessee said...: Japanese equities finished strong. Good. At least I think, good. But the BOJ has made some interesting moves since Monday.

Buffett cancels his visit to Japan. Cesium stays in fat longer than other tissues I understand...(EASY, yes we all love Warren....)

Japan is not China. This is a country noted for quality control. Not things that don't work. Cameras, heavy equip,per dollar the best cars on the planet, and so forth. Things built in China are long lasting....not t-shirts or melamine...

The PPI, I watch for that with interest today...; March 16, 2011 at 7:18 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: China could be rewritten "Japan" I guess. But I am awake, I think..; March 16, 2011 at 7:20 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/earthquake-to-cost-3-of-japanese-gdp-barclays-2011-03-15?dist=beforebell

March 15, 2011, 10:55 p.m. EDT

Earthquake to cost 3% of Japanese GDP: Barclays; March 16, 2011 at 7:22 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/16/business/global/16insure.html?_r=2&ref=business

Disasters’ Costs to Fall on Japan’s GovernmentBy MARY WILLIAMS WALSH
Published: March 15, 2011
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LinkedinDiggMixxMySpacePermalink. Apart from an expected $35 billion in insurance claims from last week’s earthquake, the financial losses in Japan will probably fall most heavily on the Japanese government once it tallies the damage from the tsunami and the nuclear disaster.

...Hey, Lefty. Where do you see Japanese bonds going? Ideas....?; March 16, 2011 at 7:29 AM
Anonymous said...: Via: Reuters:

Thousands of people desperate to escape Japan’s deepening nuclear crisis have inundated private jet companies with requests for evacuation flights, sending prices surging as much as a quarter.

Some multinational companies are pulling international staff out of Tokyo and surrounding areas after low-level radiation reached the metropolis on Tuesday.

Workers are fleeing for Hong Kong, Taiwan, South Korea and as far afield as Australia and the United States as power outages and shortages of basic supplies compound the misery after Friday’s 9.0 earthquake and subsequent tsunami.

“I got a request yesterday to fly 14 people from Tokyo to Hong Kong, 5 hour 5 minutes trip. They did not care about price. The charge inflated by 26 percent to more than $160,000,” said Jackie Wu, COO of Hong Kong Jet, a newly established private jet subsidiary of China’s HNA Group...."
http://cryptogon.com/?p=21184

LSS: 'working things out', in Japan, are going to take longer than most, now, realize..

AAIP; March 16, 2011 at 8:00 AM
Anonymous said...: Via: Reuters:

The French government said on Wednesday that Japan was losing control of the situation at the Fukushima nuclear power plant and urged its nationals in Tokyo to leave the country or head to southern Japan.

The government has asked national carrier Air France (AIRF.PA) to increase capacity on its flights between Tokyo and Paris to accommodate any additional demand from French citizens wanting to leave the Japanese capital.

Industry Minister Eric Besson said the situation at the Fukushima plant, some 240 km (150 miles) north of Tokyo, appeared to be getting out of control.

“Let’s not beat about the bush. They have visibly lost the essential of control (of the situation). That is our analysis, in any case, it’s not what they are saying,” Besson told BFM television.

Environment Minister Nathalie Kosciusko-Morizet branded the situation in Japan a “catastrophe” and said the latest information on Wednesday “does not lead to optimism”...."
http://cryptogon.com/?p=21182

there's, also, a growing 'schism' between European, and American, coverage of these 'events'..

ibid.; March 16, 2011 at 8:02 AM
Anonymous said...: http://english.kyodonews.jp/news/2011/03/78374.html

English version of Kyodo news..

ibid.; March 16, 2011 at 8:07 AM
CV said...: "Some multinational companies are pulling international staff out of Tokyo and surrounding areas after low-level radiation reached the metropolis on Tuesday...

---

After that's all taken care of... At some point people are going to have to start to consider the STUFF coming out of Tokyo...

CV has harped on this umpteen million times for 2 years now on these blogs...

"Goldfinger" (1968)...

Irradiate "the precious" (and take it off the market)...

Mostly (before this 'accident') - I'd warned of the idea that one could DIRTY NUKE some important oil fields in SA (and basically cripple the world economy)...

But that (or a 'tsunami') could NEVER happen, right?

Or even if it DID, "Whoocoodanode?"...

OK... Back to my potatoes...; March 16, 2011 at 8:27 AM
Anonymous said...: cv--

you'll get the message of this..

http://financialsense.com/contributors/rob-kirby/the-federal-reserve-is-selling-paper-gold-and-buying-physical-gold

AAIP; March 16, 2011 at 8:46 AM
Anonymous said...: PPI 1.6% = 19.2% inflation- report says:

"steepest rise in food prices in 36 years."

but pulling out energy and food- inflation is tame (laugh out loud!)

no big deal- food- it isn't as if you need it every single day of your life; March 16, 2011 at 9:00 AM
Anonymous said...: but we have a silver lining:

"building permits dropped to their lowest level on record, suggesting the beleaguered real estate sector has yet to rebound from its deepest slump in modern history."

you see- house prices will continue going down- so (as CV would say) at least we have that going for us; March 16, 2011 at 9:07 AM
AmenRa said...: Finished energy: Prices for finished energy goods climbed 3.3 percent in February, the fifth
straight monthly increase. Accounting for over forty percent of the February advance, prices for
gasoline rose 3.7 percent. Also contributing to higher prices for finished energy goods were
increases in the indexes for home heating oil and residential electric power. (See table 2.)

Finished foods: The index for finished consumer foods surged 3.9 percent in February, the
largest increase since a 4.2-percent climb in November 1974. About seventy percent of the
February rise can be traced to higher prices for fresh and dry vegetables, which jumped 48.7
percent. Advances in the indexes for meats and dairy products also were major factors in the
increase in the finished consumer foods index.

Crude foods: The index for crude foodstuffs and feedstuffs increased 6.7 percent in February.
From November to February, prices for crude foodstuffs and feedstuffs surged 12.1 percent,
compared with an 8.9-percent rise from August to November. Nearly thirty percent of the
February monthly advance can be traced to a 9.8-percent jump in the grains index.; March 16, 2011 at 9:16 AM
Anonymous said...: http://www.digitalglobe.com/index.php/27/Sample+Imagery+Gallery

Morning all.
Latest photos.

foghorn; March 16, 2011 at 9:24 AM
Anonymous said...: ahab,

I wouldn't worry about it..remember, "it's all Free, because it's paid for by Taxes.."

(that line, still, cracks me up)

"within the best Humor, a kernel of Truth."

AAIP; March 16, 2011 at 9:28 AM
karen said...: good morning! Bruce @ 7:20 : )
got coffee? seesaw, anyone?; March 16, 2011 at 9:30 AM
karen said...: Breaking News
U.K. police smash what they say is biggest-ever online pedophile network, exposing more than 50,000 members worldwide http://bit.ly/gVveye; March 16, 2011 at 9:30 AM
Anonymous said...: “Let’s not beat about the bush. They have visibly lost the essential of control (of the situation). That is our analysis, in any case, it’s not what they are saying,” Besson told BFM television.

Judging by everything I could dredge up the last 96 hours.
That sums it up pretty succinctly.

foghorn; March 16, 2011 at 9:31 AM
Anonymous said...: a lot of the 'middle-market' Retailers are facing rough sledding..

Ahead of the Bell: Pacific Sunwear
1 minute ago

(AP:NEW YORK) Shares of Pacific Sunwear of California Inc. fell in pre-market trading on Wednesday after the teen clothing retailer reported a loss for the fourth quarter and issued a weak first-quarter outlook.

Shares fell 32 cents, or 7.4 percent, to $3.99 in electronic trading ahead of the opening. The stock has traded between $2.92 and $6.84 over the past year.

PacSun has been struggling as other teen retailers like H&M and Forever 21 gain market share. It has cut prices and introduced products more quickly to compete.

But the turnaround has not produced solid results yet. Late Tuesday, the company, based in Anaheim, Calif., reported a fourth-quarter loss as revenue fell. It also forecast a loss for the first quarter.

"There is little visibility on the turnaround yet, and we continue to remain concerned over mounting losses, significant cash burn, and the inherent difficulties of a product shift," said Janney Capital Markets analyst Adrienne Tennant in a note to investors. She rates the company "Neutral."...
http://news.ino.com/headlines/?newsid=68977066747280

as ex.

AAIP; March 16, 2011 at 9:31 AM
Anonymous said...: http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=TLT
93.25 0.37 (0.40%) 9:37AM EDT

working nicely..

ibid.; March 16, 2011 at 9:39 AM
karen said...: radical ideas coming to a market near you:

http://stk.ly/fFVnrz; March 16, 2011 at 9:39 AM
AmenRa said...: Opening lower pretty much kills the chance of a hammer/takuri being a reversal...; March 16, 2011 at 9:42 AM
AmenRa said...: karen

Nasdaq will do anything to stop the coming downturn.; March 16, 2011 at 9:44 AM
CV said...: @AAIP

http://financialsense.com/contributors/rob-kirby/the-federal-reserve-is-selling-paper-gold-and-buying-physical-gold

Exactamundo!

And this is why I really fear that sooner (rather than later) this could all go hyperbolic...

My bottom line theory is that the CB's thought they had a graduated timeline to accomplish this...

- It started with the stock market crash of 2000 (but OOPS, the vaults didn't have enough gold in them if the monetary system were to collapse)

- Solution? Blow a real estate bubble (essentially - extend credit to everyone with a pulse to "chase the American Dream" of homeownership).

- When that blew up, cut sideline deals with politicians to "nationalize" the debt (via bailouts), and stay afloat (through accounting rules changes)

- AT THIS POINT - The banks basically became the biggest LANDOWNERS the world has ever seen

- Elect an incompetent stooge to the White House (to look the other way - while keeping people mesmerized with his NCAA brackets)

- Promise him endless money printing to "pay for" all the goodies he wanted to extend to Peggy Jospeh

- With all the new "debt money" created, start PAPER MARKETS in soft commodities & precious metals (tried with carbon trading too, but that one, thus far has been a fail)...

- Suppress the spot prices in commodity & PM "paper" markets (all the while, buying PHYSICAL on the side)...

- Initiate QE - QE18 programs to continue to have the "broad daylight" capacity to print more debt money, and accumulate more PHYSICAL...

In the end, when they have enough (of the PHYSICAL), they'll cover all the paper shorts (which will sent the value of the PHYSICAL parabolic), and they'll be the largest holders by then... They'll have all the LAND as well...

So the day that it comes to END THE FED - END THE FED, guess who's going to be holding all the hotels, title deeds, and money on the Monopoly board?

Hint: It's NOT going to be "Joe/Jane X trader" (with their TD Ameritrade account valued in fiat dollars)...; March 16, 2011 at 9:45 AM
Anonymous said...: hoffer-

I know that line kills me- but it is how some people think- they don't see the obvious contradiction

also AAPL hit with a downgrade from JPM; March 16, 2011 at 9:46 AM
ben22 said...: Karen,

volatility curbing, that's funny. a 3% move shuts down the stock for 60 seconds if it's priced over $50....would seem to me GOOG and AAPL will have trading halted several times over the course of this year then, hopefully during that minute people get their wits about them and buy.....efficient markets after all.

anyway, reading the first few para's there, it seems to me they are still trying to figure out how to stop a "flash crash" but I seem to recall us being told they already had systems in place to deal with that outcome....not that it could ever happen again, of course.

The Japan situation is so very interesting, yes they had a big rally, yes they also had dropped about 20% in the three days prior.

I'm wondering what kind of impact liquidity players have in that market locally over the next few weeks, liquidity player meaning there is no reason to sell other than people need money.

I'm also in that camp that would think this is far from being all sorted out, after all, even prior to the quake they were in very bad shape.; March 16, 2011 at 9:50 AM
Anonymous said...: just an observation-

but I-Man has been making some good calls lately-

(except the Budweiser call); March 16, 2011 at 9:53 AM
CV said...: I'm also in that camp that would think this is far from being all sorted out, after all, even prior to the quake they were in very bad shape.

This about sums it up...

"If you've ever stuck your hand in a spinning garbage disposal while smoking arsenic through steel wool, and injecting yourself with Drano in the jugular using a syringe stolen from a STD crack whore, this is nothing to worry about..."; March 16, 2011 at 9:53 AM
karen said...: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/d448d150-4fc6-11e0-a37e-00144feab49a.html#ixzz1GlrLcbMr

Portugal yields jump at €1bn debt sale

By Peter Wise in Lisbon
Published: March 16 2011 12:55 | Last updated: March 16 2011 12:55
Portugal sold €1bn in short-term government debt on Wednesday, but had to pay a higher interest rate after Moody’s downgraded its credit rating amid fears that the country will be forced to seek an international bail-out.

The yield on the one-year Treasury bills rose to 4.33 per cent, up from 4.05 per cent for an equivalent auction two weeks ago and 3.99 per cent a month earlier. However, it remained below a record 5.28 per cent yield for a similar sale in December.; March 16, 2011 at 9:59 AM
ben22 said...: james altucher was perhaps a big buyer yesterday

institutions were net sellers:

http://bbs.cobrasmarketview.com/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=58#p3007

judging by this chart, it is highly likely this correction is not over yet.; March 16, 2011 at 10:01 AM
karen said...: The Dominican Republic had a 5.0 today..; March 16, 2011 at 10:02 AM
ben22 said...: also, did peeps see option activity in BKX yesterday?; March 16, 2011 at 10:03 AM
karen said...: I only know that $bkx made a new low on the year.. and stabbed below december support.; March 16, 2011 at 10:08 AM
karen said...: Japan had a 5.4 today..; March 16, 2011 at 10:10 AM
ben22 said...: I used to trade this stock a few years back: FCFS

it had a huge volume spike yesterday

chart looks pretty constructive, tons of support on the 50 day obviously

might be worth a look....; March 16, 2011 at 10:11 AM
Jennifer said...: Morning all!

Karen (and others) this week's Newsweek has a sobering article about how the recent earthquakes argue for a big one hitting CA in the near future. Worth reading.; March 16, 2011 at 10:13 AM
Anonymous said...: ahab,

w/: "...but it is how some people think- they don't see the obvious contradiction..."n

yes, why I was making the Comment about: "...kernel of Truth.."
~~

cv--,

yes, it's (quite a bit/too much) like that..

peep have no Idea how much is being, actively, Stolen from them..Worse, many of those that have a 'vague Suspicion' are doing, next to, nothing to 'Hedge their Exposure'..

AAIP; March 16, 2011 at 10:13 AM
Anonymous said...: this headline kills me- Business Insider-

"HOLY CRAP: Someone Downgraded Apple Stock!"

"JMP thinks iPhone sales could just be in line with expectations this year. It also sees iPad sales eating into Mac sales."

I disagree- when one buys a macbook- my guess is that they grab a couple iPads at the checkout stand as an impulse purchase-

much like others who grab a pack of gum while waiting for the cashier to ring up their groceries; March 16, 2011 at 10:13 AM
wunsacon said...: When people can't drive anywhere because gas is $10/gallon and they don't have a job anyway, are they still going to want an iPad and mobile computing devices?

"Oooh, let me check the GPS. Looks like we'll be at the grocery in 30 minutes, based on our present rate of speed of 2 mph."; March 16, 2011 at 10:15 AM
karen said...: this is a toughy.. i've been thinking about it a lot.. tried to do some research yesterday.. my instinct says bearish.

http://www.kathylien.com/site/australian-dollar/is-the-japanese-quake-bullish-or-bearish-for-the-aud; March 16, 2011 at 10:17 AM
Anonymous said...: wunsacon-

oxen? lol

I gotta find some coffee- check back later; March 16, 2011 at 10:18 AM
ben22 said...: Stock: NLY

curious to get some opinions

1. From where I sit, stock likely has little upside when it hits $18 or above according to the charts, there is serious resistance there while there is also heavy support not to much lower.

2. Stock does pay a very nice dividend that should be able to be sustained if rates are to stay low, lets assume that continues through year end 2011.

so, I'm wondering about selling some covered calls on this. The major probem of course is that dividend which puts your option at some pretty serious risk.

I haven't really looked at option prices in detail yet, anyway....any initial thoughts? Seemed that stock was held by several people here....

Selling calls limits your potential upside in a stock, but I don't think NLY has much upside, but that dividend risk could blow the strategy up, I've only ever really done a lot of covered calls on stocks that don't pay divvies.; March 16, 2011 at 10:21 AM
mcHAPPY said...: Hey Ben, I, ahab. Thanks for the hello's.

I'm still around just not nearly as often and not for so long. I always check Andy's charts. Life has got in the way. A little girl, job, other responsibilities, sports to watch. Trading is really simple these days. A simple trend algorithm to stay on the right side and Neely's trading advice and forecasts. Takes a lot of the thinking out of it for me which has been certainly increased success.

I hope everyone else is doing well. Any lurkers would be wise to listen to these people's comments. Chatting with you all over 2 years taught me more than you'll ever know. Thanks.; March 16, 2011 at 10:22 AM
karen said...: http://www.oftwominds.com/blogmar11/Japan-perspectives3-11.html; March 16, 2011 at 10:22 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: Well, for a time I think we'll be treated to stagflation. But I think the global debtliner, the Titanic II, has started to sink. Portugal will be bailed out, and Europe probably can't even put on a brave face for that one. People who can are leaving Japan and Tokyo, and Japan is vital to the engineered and finished goods global trade. It is a "just in time" world now, you know...

No, this makes a big difference. States and local governments reining in spending...the world thing is weakening...

..got popcorn?; March 16, 2011 at 10:23 AM
CV said...: @AAIP

peep have no Idea how much is being, actively, Stolen from them..Worse, many of those that have a 'vague Suspicion' are doing, next to, nothing to 'Hedge their Exposure'

One notable individual who vowed to shut down the Federal Reserve System was President John F. Kennedy. On June 4, 1963, he signed Executive Order 11110, which legally abolished it. On November 22, 1963 he was assassinated...

Silver Certificates are a type of representative money printed from 1878 to 1964 in the United States as part of its circulation of paper currency.[1] They were produced in response to silver agitation by citizens who were angered by the Fourth Coinage Act, which had effectively placed the United States on a gold standard. The certificates were initially redeemable in the same face value of silver dollar coins, and later in raw silver bullion. Since 1968 they have been redeemable only in Federal Reserve Notes and are thus obsolete, but are still valid legal tender.

In 1928, the United States Treasury decided to reduce the size of its currency in order to speed up transactions, and also to cut costs. By this time, the Federal Reserve had taken over much of the currency market, and the prices of gold and silver had risen greatly. For Series 1928, only $1 Silver Certificates were produced. Fives and tens of this time were mainly Federal Reserve Notes, which were backed by and redeemable in gold. All this would change, however, with the beginning of the Great Depression in October 1929. The United States was plunged into an economic disaster of profound proportions. Many citizens blamed the fluctuating price of gold, which directly affected the U.S. dollar because it was pegged to the value of gold.; March 16, 2011 at 10:23 AM
ben22 said...: "Oooh, let me check the GPS. Looks like we'll be at the grocery in 30 minutes, based on our present rate of speed of 2 mph."

You all remember that computer game Oregon Trail? I remember that and Number Munchers from back when I was in 2nd or 3rd grade and computers were getting huge. They rode oxen in that game, up until you needed the raft to cross the river, which usually broke half way over.

what I don't remember from that game was being able to send a text on your iPad back to the cabin that Bertha had dysentery.

so glad we have iPads now...; March 16, 2011 at 10:24 AM
karen said...: mcHAPPY.. excellent priorities! wishing you the best days : ); March 16, 2011 at 10:24 AM
wunsacon said...: I had a "panic attack" last night, brought on by a sudden onset of "Ben22 might be right -- even the Fed can't fix the market this time". So, I hedged a little more...; March 16, 2011 at 10:25 AM
CV said...: President-elect Franklin Roosevelt felt the same way. He persuaded Congress to recall all gold coins, gold bullion, and gold certificates, which circulated alongside Silver Certificates. This prompted Congress to quietly place the U.S. on the silver standard. On May 12, 1933, the Agricultural Adjustment Act was passed, which included a clause allowing for the pumping of silver into the market to replace the gold. A new Series 1933 $10 Silver Certificate was printed and released, but not many were released into circulation.

In 1934, a law was passed in Congress that changed the obligation on Silver Certificates so as to denote the current location of the silver. This law also allowed the government to exchange silver bullion for the certificates, not just silver dollars. The 1933, along with its sister, the 1933A, $10 silvers, as well as the 1928 $1 silvers were phased out and replaced with certificates of Series 1934. The small-size $5 Silver Certificate was introduced with this series, as well.

In 1963 President John F. Kennedy issued Executive Order 11110, authorizing the Department of Treasury to issue additional Silver Certificates for any silver held by the U.S. Government in excess of that not already backing issued certificates...(he was promptly assassinated)...

End of the Silver Certificates
Series 1957 A $1 Silver CertificateCertificates circulated, mainly in the $1 denomination, widely throughout the United States in the years following 1934. When the '34s wore out, they were replaced with a new, more modern-looking Series 1953 (1935 for the $1 silvers; see below), with the same face changes as the Series 1950 Federal Reserve Notes had experienced. However, the Silver Certificates began to disappear from circulation during the 1940s and 1950s. The amount of Silver Certificates in circulation depended directly upon the amount of silver bullion in the Treasury vaults. As people redeemed the certificates for bullion or silver dollars, the notes were shredded, because the notes had lost their backing and could not be recirculated unless there was more silver being produced. The price of silver was also rising. In 1960, it was nearing $1.29, which meant that silver dollars were worth more than $1. This meant that people would receive their silver dollars and melt them down for the bullion, thereby reducing the amount of silver in circulation, which was already falling.

In March 1964, Secretary of the Treasury C. Douglas Dillon halted redemption of Silver Certificates for Silver Dollars.

And THAT, as they say, is the end of THAT story (or is it?)...; March 16, 2011 at 10:25 AM
Bill Gross said...: I was just kidding about selling all my US treasuries...

..I AM still smart, ya know..; March 16, 2011 at 10:28 AM
wunsacon said...: >> Bertha had dysentery.

Text message coming in on the iPad, sir:
"Snd tlt ppr. STOP"; March 16, 2011 at 10:29 AM
wunsacon said...: CV, your quote about gold/silver/(wealth) confiscation reminds me of a George Carlin bit: "You have no 'rights'. If they can be taken away at the moment you need them most, then they're not 'rights'. They're 'privileges'."; March 16, 2011 at 10:32 AM
ben22 said...: McHappy,

good stuff man, I'm trying to work on a few mechanical systems right now myself with small amounts of money to see how they work as I learn some new things.

and yeah....Glenn Neely is the man, have you noticed how orthodox counters right now are all convinced we are in wave 4 or worse yet, have labeled a series of 1's and 2's off the 2/18 high? the four I can at least live with....the 1's and 2's....no way.

anyway, glad you are doing good, thanks for stopping in.; March 16, 2011 at 10:33 AM
ben22 said...: @wunsacon,

Just remember, part of the fed might not be right strategy is owning some real money, in physical form, and knowing where to store it, and also staying out of debt.; March 16, 2011 at 10:36 AM
CV said...: For those of you too bored or distracted... this part (of above), should make one think...

"The price of silver was also rising. In 1960, it was nearing $1.29, which meant that silver dollars were worth more than $1. This meant that people would receive their silver dollars and melt them down for the bullion, thereby reducing the amount of silver in circulation, which was already falling..."

Hell - that was only a 29% premium... Roughly the same as a US nickle is at todays spot (and that's with copper well off its February high)...

http://coinflation.com/

But that's not even the point... The "point" is, people will HOARDE things if and when they perceive their "dollars"/"notes" aren't worth anything...

And what will be the END RESULT of the Japan
nuclear disaster???

More EXCUSES to PRINT more debt... More "notes" (less value per note - less reason to hold on to them)...

Oh - but your "stocks" ought to be worth something...; March 16, 2011 at 10:42 AM
ben22 said...: I contacted Kid D about the financial sense article linked early, Kid D for those that don't read his blog is far more knowledgeable than me about how the books work and instie trades are hedged and how to read them off the books, I would guess he knows more than all of us here about that stuff.

needless to say, he has quite a different take on what is going on than Rob Kirby.

I suppose we'll all believe what we like, I couldn't verify the information in that article by myself because I didn't know how, so I went to someone that does.

I'm not trying to start a big debate here, but I'm constantly reminded by this crew to "see the other side" so I'm merely offering up what I've learned from all of you, which is that it is often smart to see the other side:

his words:

"I think it's an asinine interpretation of what I've been saying all along - that these guys are NOT really short gold/silver etc... they sell futures to hedge their other exposures. Of course, Kirby tries to twist it into something devious. IT'S THE POINT!"; March 16, 2011 at 10:42 AM
ben22 said...: markets seem to indicate early all kinds of support in the 127 zone on SPY, if that doesn't break I'd just assume we drift slighly higher or sideways into opex.; March 16, 2011 at 10:45 AM
CV said...: I suppose the only way to get TECHNICAL TRADERS interested in anything I'm saying is to present a few charts...

Here's a little "view" on the situation over the past decade...

http://thetsitrader.blogspot.com/2011/03/gold-and-silver-parabolics-part-ii.html

Shoot it to pieces at will...; March 16, 2011 at 10:45 AM
Jennifer said...: My husband would like to spend a summer following part of Lewis & Clark's path...that text message could give me nightmares. 3rd grader has been reading these Diary of America books...lots of stories of wagon trains going west into disaster.; March 16, 2011 at 10:46 AM
karen said...: ben, you are a better person than I ! I wouldn't even read the financial sense article..; March 16, 2011 at 10:46 AM
ben22 said...: Karen,

it was a pretty interesting article, I just couldn't square all the information in it, the pieces were not fitting together for me.; March 16, 2011 at 10:53 AM
Anonymous said...: jenny-

wait until they get the heartwarming tale of the Donner party-

CV- everyone is renting stocks

as an aside- this Americano I just got blows; March 16, 2011 at 10:58 AM
Anonymous said...: wow- what I miss?; March 16, 2011 at 11:01 AM
Jennifer said...: What happened? I bought puts, went to the laundry room, and they're up 20%. 100 pt move on the dow in 5 min?; March 16, 2011 at 11:03 AM
ben22 said...: to piggyback of those funny headlines Ra linked yesterday...here's Google:

US stocks fall despite 5.7% jump in Japan's Nikkei

hehe....; March 16, 2011 at 11:03 AM
karen said...: ahab.. possible/probable meltdown in Japan, i think.. which is exactly what was foretold yesterday and had me perplexed about all the EWJ buyers.; March 16, 2011 at 11:04 AM
ben22 said...: ahab,

I man has made lots of good calls, his chart work has been very good lately, him and AT both,. two completely different technical approaches, same basic forecasts.; March 16, 2011 at 11:04 AM
Jennifer said...: "situation in nuclear plant out of control" from the Japanese nuclear energy chief.; March 16, 2011 at 11:04 AM
CV said...: @ben22

This:

I think it's an asinine interpretation of what I've been saying all along - that these guys are NOT really short gold/silver etc... they sell futures to hedge their other exposures. Of course, Kirby tries to twist it into something devious. IT'S THE POINT

I don't know know why you decided to single that out because that's NOT the center of my theory (paper shorting/manipulation by prop desks in the federal reserve system)... IMO - that MAY or MAY NOT be part of it, it's unverifiable, so who the hell knows...

All I AM saying is...

It's plausible to think that it is in the best interests of a CENTRAL BANK cartel (or collection of cartels thereof)... In the "wake" of a collapse of FAITH in a fiat based monetary/currency system... To use ANY & ALL MEANS NECESSARY to assure the survival of the cartel in a post-apocalyptic scenario (whether it be DEFLATION or HYPERINFLATION)...

Ostensibly (this is just MY OPINION), it might be EASIER for them to survive HYPERINFLATION than DEFLATION... Why? Because they could create excuse after excuse to print all the money they ever needed to buy & procure physical assets...

They could give a rats ass about private DEFAULTS on debt (whether it be "quadrillions" or "blabillions")...

- Half of that DEBT already is backed by an asset (homes & land)
- The "monthly nut" for survival comes from the government who can borrow at will (then tax it out of the populace)
- The final link in the chain is to SEQUESTER all the physical assets (gold, silver, food, materials)

If it isn't stopped, they'll move on to the ENERGY YOU CONSUME, THE WATER YOU DRINK, and the AIR YOU BREATHE...; March 16, 2011 at 11:05 AM
Matthew said...: @AmenRa:

Re: 3 Month vs Overnight (Eurodollar) Spread

I'm not sure how to read that chart, since that is not a common spread that I have paid any attention.

During the time frame you have noted, the TED spread has widened from about 25bps to 32 today (lot of variance over previous 30 days).

I am not reading much into it.; March 16, 2011 at 11:08 AM
Anonymous said...: McB,

I sent that link, with the following Note..
~~
I'd be a believer of 'the structure' of this Story..

esp. along the lines of '...Big money interests are now cutting off [or bidding for / gaining exclusive access to] the traditional bullion supply chain "at the pit."...."

tangentially, "Glencore" is the 'new' business model..

http://financialsense.com/contributors/rob-kirby/the-federal-reserve-is-selling-paper-gold-and-buying-physical-gold

AAIP

wasn't to interested in Kirby's '100-to-1' "Paper Shorting"-'Thesis'..; March 16, 2011 at 11:09 AM
AmenRa said...: So I guess the low wasn't in yesterday?; March 16, 2011 at 11:09 AM
ben22 said...: one of my office mates says EU chief of some sort saying that within a few hours there will be some sort of catastrophe in Japan

apparently this is on twitter

I really hope not, terribly sad....; March 16, 2011 at 11:09 AM
CV said...: @ahab

"CV- everyone is renting stocks"...

Yeah... & while you're busy & occupied RENTING stuff... The PRICE for stuff you need to buy (after you've redeemed the stock trades & paid taxes on those profits, just went up)...

So tell me... Where would you like me to imbed that RFID chip?

Earlobe sound good? Or do you just want it placed smack dab in the middle of your forehead (for show)... :-); March 16, 2011 at 11:11 AM
karen said...: Pomo cancelled.. funny i was just thinking about the fed realizing pomo was futile..; March 16, 2011 at 11:11 AM
Anonymous said...: b22-

I-Man's post from last night 1:00 AM or so:

"Praise to the McHappy...

And Bob too, on the same evening...

Good stuff.

Equities go lower. Aint over yet."

this was when the Nikkei was rallying- I sold a couple shorts yesterday at a small loss because my head is reeling at short term gyrations- wasn't sure what to do-

I like the I-Man's conviction; March 16, 2011 at 11:13 AM
karen said...: New blog post: EU backs off Japan comments http://www.forexlive.com/173610/all/eu-backs-off-japan-comments; March 16, 2011 at 11:14 AM
ben22 said...: CV,

I sent the article to KD, that was his response back to me, I'm not singling anything out, simply sharing what he told me. I'm bringing something else to the table than what was said in that article. If there is a major problem with me doing this I can stop.

As I have said to you repeatedly you can think whatever you like, I'm approaching how I forecast differently than you, I think it's ok that we can both present our views here right?; March 16, 2011 at 11:14 AM
karen said...: Fed cancels POMO after rates swing near time of submission $$ (likely related to the EU nuclear apocalypse comments); March 16, 2011 at 11:17 AM
Anonymous said...: CV-

I guess my point is that everyone has no conviction- in and out- like gambling-

the buy and hold crowd- getting smaller by the minute-

and remember you can use your winnings to buy anything-

assuming there is anything to buy (did you see those store shelves images in Japan I posted); March 16, 2011 at 11:18 AM
CV said...: @AAIP

I think you and I are in agreement...

It's the 'STRUCTURE' of a story like that that's pertinent... And I (like karen), didn't even read it...

Well then, how can I have an OPINION on it?

I don't... What I DO have an opinion on is what I detailed in the comments (11:05)... Details are irrelevant how it occurs...

I've read "theories" that the Chinese are the ones who are PAPER SHORTING PM's to hold down the price to accumulate the physical too...

I don't even bother linking those stories on this blog because I risk being called a "crackball"...

Frankly - I don't know the mechanisms... But all I ever say is WWCVD "What would CV do?"...

Well - If I was CV (the evil central banker), I'd exactly as I described in (11:05)...

Know what I WOULDN'T do?

I wouldn't just sit there and let the FRANCHIZE of my fiat money system get DESTROYED by "letting the markets" work themselves out in the form of TD Ameritrade account holders "firing off the trade" with their pattern recognition technology...

But that's just CV...; March 16, 2011 at 11:20 AM
Anonymous said...: CrackieMac,

Ex-Dividend Date: 23-Dec-10
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=NLY

Div. paid Qtr.ly, right?

U$D 0.64/Qtr.

here:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/op?s=NLY&m=2011-04

if you 'want' the Div., why not sell the 18calls at 0.11 ?

then, when you get there, the May-series should be up, fade those..

June, same way..

though, are you thinking about fading Puts to iniate your 'Long'(Synthetic) Position?

here:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/op?s=NLY&m=2011-03

obv., yesterday, would have been a nice day to Fade the Mar18puts..but, cie le guerra~

anyway, does that help, at all..

as an aside, there's not a lot of 'hop' in those NLY (Option) Chains..

AAIP; March 16, 2011 at 11:20 AM
Jennifer said...: Wow...I guess I need to spend more time in the laundry room.; March 16, 2011 at 11:21 AM
karen said...: still no spy 126 : (; March 16, 2011 at 11:21 AM
karen said...: zerohedge
POMO extended until 11:45; March 16, 2011 at 11:22 AM
CV said...: @ben22

"I think it's ok that we can both present our views here right?"

100%

Despite how it may "appear", I'm actually very happy that you present a different side...

It forces me to crystallize and otherwise FOCUS on articulating my stance on the issue (and even "hedge" accordingly)...; March 16, 2011 at 11:23 AM
karen said...: DIA tapped support i think..; March 16, 2011 at 11:25 AM
ben22 said...: AAIP,

thanks for that, that's what I was thinking, selling the 18's....

I dont' want to go this far out but the octobers 18's were trading at .37 when I looked last, that could be a pretty nice premium to collect, but this isn't a strategy to be greedy on.

I was not planning on using puts in this case.

I seem to recall Matthew saying he had a bad experience with covered calls on a divvy payer, and I could see why that would happen.

You ever had that issue?; March 16, 2011 at 11:25 AM
karen said...: Keith McCullough
With the US and Japan having $14,238,198,667 and 998,000,000,000 YEN in debt respectively, I can't think of anything "fundamentally" wrong; March 16, 2011 at 11:26 AM
Anonymous said...: MackieFear,

w/this: As I have said to you repeatedly you can think whatever you like, I'm approaching how I forecast differently than you, I think it's ok that we can both present our views here right?
~~

Please do..no one learns much, if anything, alone..

AAIP; March 16, 2011 at 11:26 AM
ben22 said...: CV,

cool then, and to be very clear, that was the only thing he said to me what I posted up there, just figured I'd share, KD is a very smart guy when it comes to that stuff, I've learned an awful lot from him over the past year or so.; March 16, 2011 at 11:26 AM
karen said...: leverage needs to come out of this market.. especially in the current world environment.. JBTFDers have got to be reducing risk, don't you think? institutions seem to be from the data and the charts.; March 16, 2011 at 11:28 AM
ben22 said...: if there is no trouble in Japan today that EU person should be slapped silly

totally irresponsible; March 16, 2011 at 11:29 AM
Jennifer said...: Ben -- I've had options exercised early on bank stocks w/ dividends. You need to really watch the price close to ex div dates b/c if the option goes ITM someone will try to claim the dividend. If you're selling the octobers, you'll have at least 2 quarters to watch for.; March 16, 2011 at 11:29 AM
CV said...: (11:26)

Yeah... & CV is just the "Fool on the Hill"

...but remember... the Fool on the hill sees the sun going down, & the eyes in his head see the world spinning round...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WIsou0IRIQU; March 16, 2011 at 11:31 AM
Anonymous said...: You ever had that issue?

McB,

yes, it happens, and, to me, too..

usually, from 'Sloppiness'..
~~

but, re: Oct @~ 0.37..

I'd be sticking to the 'front-months', more 'hop' in 'em..

Time, I find, is, nearly always, 'underpriced' in the Options...

"Oct." is a loong way off, many 'front-months' to be Faded, between now, and then..

AAIP; March 16, 2011 at 11:31 AM
Anonymous said...: praise Jesus:

Fed Signals Further Stimulus Unlikely as Recovery Strengthens; March 16, 2011 at 11:34 AM
ben22 said...: Jennifer,

that's what I'm a little worried about, while I don't believe $18 will be breached, this consolidation has brought it up there above $18, 8 times in the last year trailing period.

If AT's charts are correct and that count is on, our double top or Z wave should peak well before October and that's why I was looking at those, NLY as we've seen in this correction isn't so correlated with the overall market, but I also doubt if the general market is starting a large decent into his (C) wave that the stock is going above $18 either.

I'll play around more with it....but I'm thinking you can squeeze more income out of that stock rather than just riding the common.; March 16, 2011 at 11:34 AM
ben22 said...: CV,

come on man

I'm not saying you are a fool, what I'm saying is that KD knows about things that you and I don't know about, you don't have to agree with him for that reason, but I don't want to be too proud to listen to him....; March 16, 2011 at 11:37 AM
CV said...: @ahab

"Fed Signals Further Stimulus Unlikely as Recovery Strengthens"

Translation: "Expect a QE18 announcement to follow shortly"

- Subprime is contained (no - really - it is)
- We will not "monetize" the debt; March 16, 2011 at 11:37 AM
Jennifer said...: NFLX remarkably strong....I just don't get it.; March 16, 2011 at 11:38 AM
AmenRa said...: Weekly S2 is 1272.24 and S3 is 1252.50 if anyone uses pivot points to find S/R.; March 16, 2011 at 11:40 AM
karen said...: Ben, the EU commissioner's comments were not new! and Japan said as much yesterday.. again, people sought an explanation for the sell-off.

Nothing to see here: EU Energy Chief Comments Appear from Overnight http://bit.ly/hA2BJ1 $$; March 16, 2011 at 11:40 AM
mcHAPPY said...: Ben,

Regarding this:

"good stuff man, I'm trying to work on a few mechanical systems right now myself with small amounts of money to see how they work as I learn some new things."

What is your private email?; March 16, 2011 at 11:43 AM
Anonymous said...: J-

215.00 NFLX110319C00215000 4.25 1.20 4.25 4.45 3,992 5,267
220.00 NFLX110319C00220000 2.10 0.70 2.13 2.22 5,639 5,964

watch those, on paper: Sell them on a 1:1 basis, Synthetic 217.50

credit ~ 6+

no way they Lose..

ibid.; March 16, 2011 at 11:46 AM
Anonymous said...: linkage:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/op?s=NFLX

AAIP; March 16, 2011 at 11:46 AM
CV said...: @ben (11:37)

I'm not IMPLYING that you think I'm a fool... Simply using a metaphor to color a distinction...

Let me put it another way...

If I'm not 'erroneous' in my interpretation, YOU use "SOCIOECONOMICS" & EWI as somewhat of a framework to your methods (be careful: I didn't QUANTIFY that, I just said "somewhat", I realize you have other tools & dimensions)...

Me?

I use "common sense" in the same way (as framework)... Now... That said... Who can QUALIFY or QUANTIFY what 'common sense' is... It's subjective right?

All I can say is that IN MY LIFE, I've come to TRUST my common sense... Furthermore, I tend to spend a lot of my private time thinking about macro issues and working out scenarios (not watching DWTS)... That does not qualify me as an expert by any means, only says that I've contributed a lot of thinking man hours to developing a unified theory... Whether it becomes REAL or not is for nature to decide...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zI0Q8ytD44Y; March 16, 2011 at 11:46 AM
Anonymous said...: quotage:
215.66 -1.45 (-0.67%) 11:45AM EDT

ibid.; March 16, 2011 at 11:48 AM
CV said...: ...and by saying "unified theory"... Understand that ONLY to mean "navigation thru chaos"...

There IS no UNIVERSALITY in MANIFESTED EXISTENCE...

Universality is ultimately achieved when the "manifestation" shell is discarded...; March 16, 2011 at 11:50 AM
Anonymous said...: cv--,

to your point, @11:46

Fortune Cookie I, just, cracked open..

"Statistics are no substitute for judgement."

AAIP; March 16, 2011 at 11:51 AM
Jennifer said...: Thanks, Mark. I haven't graduated to multi-leg stragegies though! I'll watch them to see what happens.; March 16, 2011 at 11:51 AM
Anonymous said...: "Is Groupon Ruining Retailing?"- NYT

http://boss.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/03/16/is-groupon-ruining-retailing/?scp=2&sq=groupon&st=cse

"...most small businesses that sell a product or service are getting deluged with offers to partner with one or more of the coupon sites. Those offers are producing a lot of confusion and anxiety for businesses. To deal or not to deal, that is the question."; March 16, 2011 at 11:54 AM
Anonymous said...: re the fortune cookie-

. . .in bed; March 16, 2011 at 11:55 AM
ben22 said...: McHappy,

you can hit me up here:

McFearless11235@gmail.com

I check it all the time now.; March 16, 2011 at 12:00 PM
Anonymous said...: "Whether it becomes REAL or not is for nature to decide..."

CV- are you meddling around with the primal forces of nature:-)?; March 16, 2011 at 12:00 PM
Jennifer said...: Bull wedge on SPY 10 min http://screencast.com/t/bujGqU2CDL; March 16, 2011 at 12:02 PM
karen said...: US DOLLAR FALLS TO 16-YEAR LOW AGAINST THE YEN

the dynamic of the strong yen has got to run it's course and then a sharp reversal?

YCS made a new low.. i want that.; March 16, 2011 at 12:03 PM
Anonymous said...: http://www.truthdig.com/eartotheground/item/chernobyl_expert_says_greed_may_lead_20110315

CHERNOBYL EXPERT SAYS GREED MAY LEAD TO BIG TROUBLE IN JAPAN

Corporate interests might have played a big part in the design and maintenance of Japan’s nuclear complex at Fukushima, according to Russian nuclear accident expert Iouli Andreev, who knows a thing or two from Chernobyl’s example—and who called the International Atomic Energy Agency “a fake organization.” —KA

-------------------------------------
Let's see if the russians can say it here.

foghorn; March 16, 2011 at 12:05 PM
Jennifer said...: Ha! That failed before I managed to get it posted.; March 16, 2011 at 12:06 PM
Anonymous said...: more from the Groupon link:

"When you charge some customers full price and others half price, you make some happy and others unhappy. Worst of all, you make the wrong customers happy! The regulars are unhappy because they feel they overpaid; the discount customers are happy -- but they're probably not coming back because they're used to shopping at half price. When you decide to do a daily deal, you are training your existing customers to wait for the next coupon. Does that sound like a recipe for success?"

anyone use Groupon? Always see the ad but have never bothered to click it; March 16, 2011 at 12:06 PM
I-Man said...: Man, I knew I would miss something good...

Sick toddler, up all night pretty much.

Think I've logged 8 hrs of sleep over the past 48...; March 16, 2011 at 12:08 PM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: karen said...
leverage needs to come out of this market.. especially in the current world environment.. JBTFDers have got to be reducing risk, don't you think? institutions seem to be from the data and the charts.

..Yes.; March 16, 2011 at 12:10 PM
AmenRa said...: GS below its weekly 3LB reversal price (157.76).; March 16, 2011 at 12:11 PM
Anonymous said...: I-man-

been there done that- but I feel your pain; March 16, 2011 at 12:12 PM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: We had our monthly mine meeting last night. Listening to the partners, all of whom can make a small fortune from a large one, all were very anxious about risk.

I suspect there were phone calls north this am..or electrons....; March 16, 2011 at 12:12 PM
Jennifer said...: http://www.stocktiming.com/Wednesday-DailyMarketUpdate.htm

Institutions in distribution...you think?; March 16, 2011 at 12:12 PM
Jennifer said...: I-Man -- so sorry, hope everyone is feeling better soon. Those nights are killers.; March 16, 2011 at 12:13 PM
Anonymous said...: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sa3mj9VI-ys&feature=player_embedded"

what would the moral of this story be?; March 16, 2011 at 12:14 PM
CV said...: CV- are you meddling around with the primal forces of nature:-)?

Just warning PEEPS not to...; March 16, 2011 at 12:19 PM
CV said...: ...or GET IN TUNE, as the case may be...; March 16, 2011 at 12:20 PM
Jennifer said...: Ahab: 1) don't pick on someone a whole head taller than you are, 2) there's muscle under that fat, 3) people who videotape their own bullying efforts deserve to get slammed.; March 16, 2011 at 12:21 PM
CV said...: When you decide to do a daily deal, you are training your existing customers to wait for the next coupon. Does that sound like a recipe for success?"

The Democratic Party thinks so...; March 16, 2011 at 12:22 PM
CV said...: ...and they're RIGHT!!! (as far as "getting votes" is concerned); March 16, 2011 at 12:22 PM
karen said...: The culmination of my disgust and disdain for the Bernank was when his Op Ed published in the WA Post. How could a man that schooled be so clueless..; March 16, 2011 at 12:22 PM
karen said...: even worse: USDJPY Hits 79.98, BOJ Intervention Expected http://is.gd/Ln2BhO; March 16, 2011 at 12:23 PM
Jennifer said...: Contemplating a long trade....good thing I have to leave the house now.; March 16, 2011 at 12:24 PM
karen said...: LOL! just for chet, President Obama: U.S. nuclear facilities are safe http://ow.ly/4fMBZ; March 16, 2011 at 12:26 PM
karen said...: BAC broke down it's triangle yesterday but it sure isn't doing much today.

C just has to get to 4.10..; March 16, 2011 at 12:29 PM
Anonymous said...: Meanwhile in China

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/17/world/asia/17china.html?partner=rss&emc=rss

BEIJING — China suspended approval on Wednesday of 28 planned nuclear power plants while it revised safety standards, making the surprise announcement after Premier Wen Jiabao met with top advisers to discuss Japan’s nuclear crisis.

The government said it was also requiring safety checks at all existing plants.
--------------------------
Chickens

foghorn; March 16, 2011 at 12:32 PM
Anonymous said...: jenny-

correct! What was that kid thinking?; March 16, 2011 at 12:32 PM
CV said...: LOL! just for chet, President Obama: U.S. nuclear facilities are safe http://ow.ly/4fMBZ

Translation: "Please WORLD... Stop trying to fall apart on MY WATCH... I just want my 4 more years of limousine, airplane, & helicopter rides, & free rounds of golf at the taxpayer expense base"...

Because everyones knows my JOB RESUME, other than "community organizer" wouldn't even get me a job at Sizzler...; March 16, 2011 at 12:37 PM
karen said...: Hip-hop star Nate Dogg dies at 41 http://bbc.in/fIb1Wv; March 16, 2011 at 12:40 PM
karen said...: to think i blamed bush for the dollar's demise..; March 16, 2011 at 12:41 PM
Anonymous said...: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1366670/Japan-earthquake-tsunami-French-claim-scale-nuclear-disaster-hidden.html

Latest, clearest pictures to date.
It's blowed up Bubba.

foghorn; March 16, 2011 at 12:48 PM
Anonymous said...: How could a man that schooled be so clueless..

k-

He gets Paid for it..

as a matter of Fact, given what He is doing, and getting away with, He's, in some Circles, Fantastically Successful..

ibid.; March 16, 2011 at 12:49 PM
Anonymous said...: this:

White House Wants New Copyright Law Crackdown
March 16th, 2011

Via: Cnet:

The White House today proposed sweeping revisions to U.S. copyright law, including making “illegal streaming” of audio or video a federal felony and allowing FBI agents to wiretap suspected infringers.
http://cryptogon.com/?p=21197

is what #44, and "Bag" Holder, think(s) is important..

AAIP; March 16, 2011 at 12:52 PM
karen said...: Your Bracket Awaits, Mr. President http://bit.ly/e2DKIU; March 16, 2011 at 12:55 PM
ben22 said...: I signed up for groupon for all of about 4 days, I thought it was lame

I also wondered if them denying the goog bid would come back and haunt them...; March 16, 2011 at 12:56 PM
Anonymous said...: Crude Oil 99.09 +1.11 +1.13
Natural Gas 4.002 -0.010 -0.25
Corn 632.00 -4.00 -0.63
Soybeans 1292.5 +22.5 +1.77
30yr Bond 122.81250 +1.50000 +1.23
10yr Note 121.625000 +1.281250 +1.06
NY Gold 1397.4 +4.6 +0.33
NY Silver 34.485 +0.368 +1.07
http://www.ino.com/; March 16, 2011 at 12:56 PM
CV said...: @AAIP

The Patriot Act... The gift that never stops giving...

Just get in line for your RFID's "sheeps"...

Lollipops 4 all afterwards...; March 16, 2011 at 12:56 PM
karen said...: Hawaii just had a 2.5.. Kilauea spewing.; March 16, 2011 at 12:57 PM
karen said...: shoot, i already forgot what groupon was.. and now it is coming back to me.. lol.. yeah, i remember signing up, too.. lasted one day? can't remember.; March 16, 2011 at 12:58 PM
CV said...: No, this is not a joke. From Bloomberg:

UK Surpasses Zimbabwe In Annual Inflation

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/uk-surpasses-zimbabwe-annual-inflation; March 16, 2011 at 1:06 PM
CV said...: Here's the best comment...

"This is deflationary for Zimbabwe... bad news for them. Send in the Bernank"; March 16, 2011 at 1:07 PM
CV said...: Economist warns food-price riots could be looming in Britain

http://www.thestar.com/business/article/951160--economist-warns-food-price-riots-could-be-looming-in-britain

Of course, THAT headline was from March 9th... The day BEFORE the HAARP antenna triggered the 9.0 quake/tsunami that started a nuclear meltdown and gabe the BOJ cover to PRINT another couple of hundred trillion yen...

So the New Madrid & San Andreas fault lines are safe until gasoline hits $4, or your Eggo waffle breakfast costs $5...

Meanwhile, JBTFD... Or wait, not just yet... Wait until the spot silver price works its way down to the $30-$32 area and we get to stuff a couple hundred tons in our trousers...; March 16, 2011 at 1:15 PM
karen said...: http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2011/03/16/qa-eichengreen-on-the-end-of-dollar-dominance/; March 16, 2011 at 1:19 PM
karen said...: check out fcx on a ten min 2 day..
i swear metals about to run lower..
watch slv on 10 as well..; March 16, 2011 at 1:24 PM
Oyeah said...: A golf ball hit onto a nuclear facility has never caused a meltdown.

Next question?; March 16, 2011 at 1:24 PM
karen said...: i'm gonna cover some shorts soon.. want YCS is a big way.; March 16, 2011 at 1:25 PM
CV said...: i swear metals about to run lower...

I concur... When those cased rods of uranium pellets melt, they'll run lower, right down thru the bottom of the containment pools...; March 16, 2011 at 1:29 PM
I-Man said...: RIP Nate Dogg

"16 in the clip and 1 in the hole..."; March 16, 2011 at 1:30 PM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: http://www.moneyville.ca/blog/post/953778--my-spring-spending-splurge-cost-3-48

My spring spending splurge cost $3.48

CV, I think I have found your soulmate...; March 16, 2011 at 1:32 PM
Anonymous said...: cv--

that Story..
http://search.yippy.com/search?input-form=clusty-simple&v%3Asources=webplus&v%3Aproject=clusty&query=HAARP+Japan

is getting a lot of Play..

ibid.; March 16, 2011 at 1:36 PM
I-Man said...: Hope ya Lay Low...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZwUyT1rDiPE; March 16, 2011 at 1:37 PM
mcHAPPY said...: Ben,

Just sent you an email.; March 16, 2011 at 1:39 PM
I-Man said...: We Got Love fo Ya Nate Dogg...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pWUMSPekHBE&feature=related; March 16, 2011 at 1:41 PM
Jennifer said...: Miss anything good?; March 16, 2011 at 1:43 PM
AmenRa said...: I'm getting a feeling that the losses may double by the close...; March 16, 2011 at 1:47 PM
Anonymous said...: gotta roll- my SSO was bot at $48.29-

we'll see if 1260 holds- keeping my fingers crossed-

all be good; March 16, 2011 at 1:50 PM
the Bernank said...: @Jennifer

Miss anything good?

I printed a jablillion dollars while you were away...

Don't spend it all in one place!; March 16, 2011 at 1:54 PM
ben22 said...: I just covered a few more SPY puts, what a ride.

Still not going long, correction still isn't over imo.; March 16, 2011 at 1:55 PM
I-Man said...: No one should be going long.

If folks want to trade, they should wait to sell highs, not buy dips.

Trade with the flow.; March 16, 2011 at 1:58 PM
Jennifer said...: I seem to have missed a great put buying opportunity while I was out...darn preschool.; March 16, 2011 at 1:58 PM
I-Man said...: To be clear, I'm not saying that a long placed at the right spot, at the right time wont make money, I'm just saying that its a losing proposition on average.

If the "money" is waiting to sell, then you should be too.; March 16, 2011 at 2:01 PM
I-Man said...: My dip buying days ended with the uptrend.; March 16, 2011 at 2:01 PM
I-Man said...: But hey, you can do anything with a stop loss in place.; March 16, 2011 at 2:03 PM
Anonymous said...: http://www3.nhk.or.jp/daily/english/16_16.html

Radioactivity forecast system down

A computer system that forecasts the spread of radioactivity has not been working due to malfunctioning monitoring posts around a troubled nuclear power plant in quake-hit Fukushima Prefecture.

The Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency says it does not know when the system will be back in operation.

The system, called SPEEDI, predicts how radioactive substances will spread in case of radiation leakage from nuclear power plants, based on measurements taken at various locations, prevailing winds and other weather conditions.

SPEEDI data are intended to be used to draw up evacuation plans for residents around power plants in case of accidents.

The system is monitored at government offices, including the industry ministry and the Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency in Tokyo.

Friday's earthquake caused power outages around the troubled Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant.

The agency says it cannot expect the SPEEDI system to function fully, since many monitoring posts are not operating due to power outages.

Wednesday, March 16, 2011 10:25 +0900 (JST)
~~

"No 'News', is "Good" News."

ibid.; March 16, 2011 at 2:03 PM
ben22 said...: it was a small trade but I sold March 130 puts that I bought for 1.50 at $4.10 today

sometimes the waves work real well, other times not so much.; March 16, 2011 at 2:03 PM
I-Man said...: Kick ass, Benji!

Now, THAT is a good trade.

Cover at the lows, short at the highs...; March 16, 2011 at 2:07 PM
ben22 said...: they were up at $4.20 for just a minute or so there but I was perfectly alright with $4.10.

I didn't want to hold until Friday.

On to the next one.; March 16, 2011 at 2:09 PM
karen said...: Nic's levels: 1253, 1247, 1230, 1216; March 16, 2011 at 2:10 PM
ben22 said...: I,

Need to start planning the retrace targets for this D wave, I plan to sell pretty hard on that bounce.

gonna take a look at your chart again to see if I can get some other clues.; March 16, 2011 at 2:14 PM
I-Man said...: Guys we could flash out here real quick...

Competing sellers in low bid volume...; March 16, 2011 at 2:14 PM
Anonymous said...: Change: -5.00 (30.30%)

52wk Range: 10.00 - 28.50

Last Trade: 11.50

Volume: 50,838
Avg Vol (3m): 397

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=TKECF.PK; March 16, 2011 at 2:14 PM
I-Man said...: Wait until I re-scale that chart later tonight, I'll send you an updated one.; March 16, 2011 at 2:14 PM
CV said...: As CV always says...

How much does that last package of "unobtanium" cost on the supermarket shelves?

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/guest-post-nuke-pills-top-200-pack-auction-sites-prices-1900-just-few-days

"As we reported in What Your Grocery Store Will Look Like In An Emergency, at the onset of a far-from-equilibrium event, the essentials go first. In Japan, food and especially water have become scarce.

The panic is spreading, and residents in the US, fearing a fallout cloud crossing the pacific and affecting Western states, are stocking up as well."; March 16, 2011 at 2:15 PM
Anonymous said...: McB,

Need to start planning the retrace targets for this D wave, I plan to sell pretty hard on that bounce.
~~

think about Selling the Calls, to Buy the Puts..

AAIP; March 16, 2011 at 2:16 PM
ben22 said...: thanks, I'll keep an eye out for it; March 16, 2011 at 2:16 PM
ben22 said...: AAIP,

no doubt, I've got a few individual stocks I'm watching who's calls look ripe to sell right now

AAPL is getting hit pretty hard right now, Karen, I didn't read that whole article from this morning, when do those rules go in effect? Shouldn't that be halted now....or not on the list?; March 16, 2011 at 2:18 PM
AmenRa said...: "FAD" my new catch phrase (F*@# A Dip); March 16, 2011 at 2:18 PM
spoonman said...: Wish I'd held onto my puts a bit longer...; March 16, 2011 at 2:20 PM
AmenRa said...: Ruh roh. SPX just gapped below 1250.

Ring ring.
Hello?
Is KATHERINE in?; March 16, 2011 at 2:21 PM
Jennifer said...: Trin over 4... those 1260 sell stops kicked in.; March 16, 2011 at 2:22 PM
CV said...: S&P just went negative for 2011...

Last I checked, PAPER SILVER is still "up" 10% for 2011... It would have to get back to around $30 to cross into negative...

Bucky is down 4% for 2011...

So work out the correlations for yourself in buying power (gained/lost); March 16, 2011 at 2:23 PM
CV said...: but who knows?

I mean, based on the linked article above (Britain inflation vs. Zimbabwe)...

It may be that traders are pouring into Zimbabwe for safe haven status...; March 16, 2011 at 2:26 PM
Andy T said...: Well, the Apple Fanboys get a shot at buying more of that stock "cheaper" today...; March 16, 2011 at 2:27 PM
ben22 said...: "Well, the Apple Fanboys get a shot at buying more of that stock "cheaper" today..."

oh for sure, especially what with all the extra cash they have on hand since the iPad 2 is so cheap....; March 16, 2011 at 2:33 PM
CV said...: @Andy (2:27)

That's because someone leaked a story that Steve Liesman tried to EAT his I-Pad and didn't like the taste...; March 16, 2011 at 2:33 PM
karen said...: what about all those GS fanboys..; March 16, 2011 at 2:35 PM
AmenRa said...: VIX has entered the "fear" zone.; March 16, 2011 at 2:36 PM

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This blog should not be interpreted as investment advice of any kind. The authors are NOT representing themselves CTAs or CFAs or Investment/Trading Advisor of any kind. The authors may or may not trade in the markets discussed. The authors may hold positions opposite of what may by inferred by this blog.The information contained in this blog is taken from sources the authors believes to be reliable, but it is not guaranteed by the authors as to the accuracy or completeness thereof and is presented here for information purposes only. Commodity trading involves risk and is not for everyone.

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Morning Corner 3.16.11

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