ES (weekly info)WEEKLY REVERSAL new low 1274.25
trend=no
direction=down (1 bar)
low= 1274.25
rev= 1337.50; mid= 1305.88
Can what happened at the close carry over to the cash open? That shooting star has one bullish long candle of 8 handles in it (when looking at the 1-min chart). Right now the trading range in pretty flat. Should we JBTFD or think for ourselves?
3 month vs Overnight LiborUpdate:Update: Spread continues to increase. Everyone knows the overnight rate should be rising. The 3 month should be rising along with it. Spread was 0.051 on 1/3/11 and is now 0.113 on 3/23/11. It continues to worsen. Something is very wrong over there.
173 comments:
@Steve,
previous thread
what's up man? I haven't taken a real hard look at the Yen either, I had printed out a 20 year USD;Yen chart about a week ago but haven't had much time to spend on it. I'll take a look over the weekend, that's interesting about the big triangle.
Triangles seem to be the dominant pattern in everything several months running now.
Any of you ever chart stock CSX? chart looks pretty healthy at first glances.
This new "fed transparency" is great comedy.
Karen,
I am sorry I didn't get that to you yesterday. I e-mailed the address to my home computer from the office yesterday, and it didn't show up here either. I will figure a way to do it (like the Financial Times stories) but not today. We are all going to Chattanooga for the day, and the symphony tonight. This week was crazy busy.
I don't put either of my e-mail addresses on the blog because some more-on put his last name in parts of both of them...
Duh. (But he's trainable.......)
Maybe I can find a way to do it in code! NCIS-like!
@ben22
I pass right under the railtoad tracks about a mile from the farm a couple times per day when I'm there , and assuming I'm running errands...
CSX always seems to be running by loaded with freight & a lot of coal...
They're probably making a BRAZILLION dollars!
---
Right now, CV is 2nd in the NCAA Bracket picking tournament (of about 70 people), I'm in...
Assuming the final four ends up to be Ohio State - Kansas - Florida and whomever, myself and the same guy in front of me now would stay leaders...
Problem is, we BOTH have Ohio State - Kansas in the final game, and we both have Ohio State winning...
He has 160 as the final score total, I have 162...
The pool "pays out" 2 spots (so I'd get $$ for 2nd place regardless - not a brazillion dollars, but something), but I think a way to edge by him would be if Marquette manages to take down North Carolina in the process)...
So sorry, but I'm rooting AGAINST your "Heels" today...
http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/states-weigh-reductions-in-benefits-for-unemployed-rising-costs-cited/2011/03/24/ABxBl8RB_story.html
Michigan first to act as states weigh reductions in unemployment benefits
"The Michigan measure reduces the maximum period a person can receive state unemployment benefits from 26 to 20 weeks, the lowest in the nation, officials said. Gov. Rick Snyder (R) indicated Thursday that he would sign the bill."
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/03/25/us-auto-output-japan-idUSTRE72N87N20110325
Global auto output may fall 30 percent due to quake
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-24/european-carmakers-may-be-forced-to-idle-plants-as-japan-supplies-dry-up.html
European Carmakers May Be Forced to Idle Plants as Japan Supplies Dry Up
CV,
no problem on rooting against the heels, Puke lost last night so my day is already a good one.
that could come right down to the wire in that pool you are in, 2 point difference on the tie breaker....nuts.
but really, I just want to say it again, I'm just thrilled duke went down, and hard.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-24/imf-said-to-be-discussing-activation-of-583-billion-crisis-lending-pool.html
IMF Said to Be Discussing Activation of $583 Billion Crisis Lending Pool
...Stories like this one remind me of the old saying about the horse being already out of the barn. This IMF story,all these nations and federation of nations, and financial arms of nation-states...they are all doing the same thing. Chasing the balloon around the room as the air leaves it.
When the Great Recession started, we were shocked, but as countries decided to prop up debt rather than take actual loses, we began to see more and more that the debt couldn't be redeemed. Iceland, Ireland, Portugal...part of the Middle East uprising was due to the rising cost of food, states in the US rapidly cutting costs like the Michigan story above.
We are as a globe borrowing more money to throw after the bad...I still am thinking although there has been massive money spent it won't work and global austerity is the result. Call it what you will...
no love lost between cv & duke either...
When the Great Recession started, we were shocked, but as countries decided to prop up debt rather than take actual loses...
We are as a globe borrowing more money to throw after the bad...I still am thinking although there has been massive money spent it won't work and global austerity is the result...
See... That LAST part is where, sadly, nowadays, I'm taking the OTHER SIDE OF THAT BET (which puts me in opposition to most of you traders here)...
Austerity? pffft? Yeah - that worked real well for the Greeks...
Wasn't it last year around this time that "Papa-Doo Rag" was telling everyone not to bet against Greece?
PIGS??? All the same story as a year ago...
And the 'solution' is to throw a couple of pocket change into the IMF cookie jar for a 'rainy day'???
AUSTERITY hasn't even made it onto US shores yet... Any 'talk' of austerity is just that when you have the world's, reserve currency, global military operations, and BRAZILLIONS of unfunded liabilities (who all have a vote)...
The last time the US even TRIED anything with regards to austerity was with JFK... It didn't work out that well as I recall...
They'll seize all the money in 401K's before they even SNIFF at anything resembling austerity...
There's your WEALTH EFFECT... Sieze the trillions in 401k's and blow the S&P to the moon! The only problem is, you won't be able to get your hands on it (as they'll promise you a cozy 2-3% "safe" return)... Meanwhile, "cost of living" inflation will be running at 6%...
Get in line for your RFID chip, and quit bothering me (says the man from the tower)...
good morning! AR.. good opening corner.. i'm at a loss here.
Bruce, enjoy your day and evening! my gmail address does work.. it has my last name, too, laughing.. but just let me know if you send something to it because i don't check it.
Once Arizona got the lead Duke broke down. MoMo took them to remedial school and those Derrick Williams dunks were insane.
much tweeted about article in the NYT today about GE
GE Strategies Let It Avoid Taxes Altogether http://nyti.ms/fPaz88 everyone's talking about this today--from Kid Dynamite
http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2011/03/nyt-ges-ge-strategies-let-it-avoid.html
no one cares about leaking core in Japan it seems..
Stocks Shrug Off Bad News From Japan: Seems like only two things could conceivably derail the stock market. ... http://on.wsj.com/fSFhht
Morning all, ahh... the JPY... I and I favorite uptrend.
Not done yet.
I believe yen tops in June, and the Nik will bottom there also.
Hard to see a major currency making a multi year top on "intervention"...
Yeah, that always works.
Meanwhile, in the US equities... today is my day for the lower high. We'll see if there is anything to my mumbo jumbo.
You know CV, I do think there is a fairly good chance that I am wrong and you are right about the final outcome...(of global debt)...that is why, I suppose, I still work.
Much larger garden than last year, though. My father broke me of wanting to farm when I was a small child. But my wife loves it so, I have grudgingly jumped in to help. And it may come down to it, as you say, that the only way you can afford to eat corn on the cob roasted on the grill is to grow it yourself..
I will tell you CV, that sometimes I have to skip parts of your posts....at my age I can't get through the whole thing without nodding off...
Ben, a contrarian's take on the dollar demise--
http://www.oftwominds.com/blogmar11/contrarian-take3-11.html
@Bruce in Tennn
Want a computer model for the likelihood of AUSTERITY? Here... I'll give you one off the top of my head...
#1 If you, a citizen, have a VOTE, and one system promises you BENEFITS at the expense ot others, and the other says you have to SACRIFICE (while bankers & elite get to re-work all the rules)... Which do you choose?
#2 Let's say you're running for President... You know you're crooked, and your opposition is HONEST... You have a vote... Do you vote for the OTHER GUY because he's honest?
#3 Let's say you're any criminal in history, when they're caught, what's the first thing they do...
a) Say "Opps... Sorry! You caught me red-handed, it's time to do my AUSTERITY...
b) Hire the best lawyer money can buy to find loopholes and a way to BEAT THE SYSTEM...
#4 Let's say you're a central banker (or one of the shareholders of the world "counterfeitting" operation)... Debt Service (by the cained peeps)goes kablooey... Do you?
a) Allow the system to implode (wiping out all the debt owed to you - and hopefully convince some government to let you start from scratch?
b) Explode the debt money supply, furthering and extending the game, and in the process, steal a few nickles withing the transactions to start accumulating all the PHYSICAL assets on the planet so when the end comes, and faith ACTUALLY DOES disappear with the fiat ponzi, you still hold all the pieces...
Sorry my posts are so elaborate...
The "Cliffs Notes" version is JBTFD
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-25/kocherlakota-would-need-materially-worse-data-to-extend-fed-asset-buying.html
Kocherlakota Would Need ‘Materially’ Worse Data to Extend QE
Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Narayana Kocherlakota said the U.S. economy would have to “worsen materially” for the central bank to consider extending its second round of bond purchases past June.
“I am not one who would say that I would remove all possibility of further easing, but that would require conditions to worsen materially from what I forecast,” Kocherlakota told reporters today at an event in Marseille, France. “If the economy evolves the way I forecast, I would not foresee us doing further accommodation.”
The regional bank chief, who holds a vote on monetary policy this year for the first time, voted with the rest of the Federal Open Market Committee last week to keep in place the current round of Treasury purchases to stimulate growth and reduce unemployment. He said today that he would look at core inflation to guide his assessment whether the Fed should extend the $600 billion program or begin tightening policy.
Ha ha. Core inflation to guide his assessment. ROR.
barry ritholtz
GE raises your taxes by not paying theirs: Another reason to let firms fail vs bail outs: Ungrateful bastards http://nyti.ms/eYtGA
aussie dollar at new all time high.. can it back of now? for heaven's sake.. doesn't Japan hurt the aussie dollar at all?! nothing makes sense to me..
lulu chart for fun.. JBTFD
http://chart.ly/bh9863o
New blog post: Can't keep a good Aussie down http://www.forexlive.com/175931/all/cant-keep-a-good-aussie-down
spy high 131.49.. trend is breached at 131.50, for me..
New AT high on AUDUSD
Hang in there...
WTI busted the uptrend
This one will be obvious once its begun...
"Some tings na run how we plan, but according to Jah Jah plan..."
-Dezarie
I think I'm overthinking this.
yeah, Jenn, all you have to know is JBTFD. what was Neely's game changer? 1318?
RR on gold:
http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/3/25_Richard_Russell_-_Gold_To_Catch_Fire_%26_the_Public_Will_Notice.html
Karen -- he moved the stop up. I've had bad personal experience with moving stops up. Very bad.
exciting story of the day!!
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1369595/Jacob-Barnett-12-higher-IQ-Einstein-develops-theory-relativity.html
Very nice call on the 1318 AT
I'm looking for puts here....
Does Neely base his stops strictly off price, or is there a time component?
Wunsacon referenced Mike Morgan a day or two ago (regarding E Warren articles at the goldman 666 site I think.) I was a Mike Morgan follower for a while. It was great at first, and then, a disaster. He knew all the dirt on all the banks and property developers, so that was great, but he had no technical trading background whatsoever. I kept asking -- if we think that the Dow is going to 6000, and we're near/at that level now, then what next? He didn't have an answer. It was unthinkable to him that we could have a rally that lasted more than a day or two. After the March '09 reversal, he kept shorting and raising stops and going crazy, and blaming Goldman Sachs, and starting the Goldman 666 site, and getting sued, and gave himself a major heartattack from the stress. The bypass surgery required being on heart/lung bypass, which essentially gave him some ministrokes, and he was never the same -- closed/sold all of his businesses and seems to have dissapeared entirely. So...don't raise stops.
I-Man -- I got MEW for Christmas, but I've only skimmed through it. Ben would be a better person to answer, but Neowave is different from RP's elliott wave in that it does have a time component.
it would appear he basis it off both
What ever happened to Mackie? The bald guy on fast money. Anyone know?
Jennifer
Damn that's definitely one hell of an explanation about raising stops.
Jennifer, 11:07
what that guy did there, and what neely is doing here are not in any way related
when you start blaming others for trades you've sealed your own fate, and it's called a loss.
Bob -- CNBC ditched him after he blew up one day -- it was hysterical. I think I saw some blurb just in the last few days that he was going to be starting a program w/ Matt Nesto on Tech Ticker very soon. Doesn't he post at Minyanville too?
The reason I ask, is because I would think that someone as smart as Neely, would be protecting gains with stops, not just risk.
In other words, he should have been out of the initial short when we were in puke mode a week or so ago...
Thats my style anyway... takes a lot of the stress out of this.
If you're sitting on a pile of gains from the first wave down, it makes your entry into the top of the next retracement relatively stress free.
But if you are watching your paper gains evaporate as we reach the next high, then whats the point in calling the tops?
I think that puts you back on amateur level, where the market is pushing you around, and testing your psyche with every higher print.
(I realize fully that I dont know much about Neely, but just an observation based off others comments.)
Ben -- sorry, didn't mean to equate Neely to someone else, just relating a bad personal experience with raised stops.
bob,
he's still around, more lately in fact, he just did a good interview with Louise Yamada but I can't remember where I watched that now.
now, nod if you can understand me
I'll never forget that interview....hilarious
I saw the "blow up", or blow out, that was why I was asking, haven't seen anything since. I figured he went to nepal or something.
@J,
sorry if it came across like I was saying you were, was just generally pointing it out
there's a method here, that's the most important thing, that guy was raising stops because of emotion
And if he is cool enough to watch paper gains evaporate, and not let it affect his mental, then forget everything I just said at 11:11...
I
you still looking for a reverse this morning?
Somebody please explain these first two hours of trading. GDP was inline, consumer sentiment WTE, Japan still in meltdown scenarios, EU Summit a waste of time. The market decided to take out buy stops?
I would assume that the more successful, and therefore confident you are in your method, then the easier it is to let the market do its thing, and have peace that you called it right, and if not, you're going out at breakeven.
For the I... going out at breakeven after having a nice "gain" is worse than losing right out the gate.
But I've always been poor.
@bob:
"What ever happened to Mackie? The bald guy on fast money. Anyone know?"
Check out Yahoo! Finance "Breakout"
http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout/
@ Bob
Yeah, not sure if it will be a dramatic high tail kind of reversal, or just a high...
But yes, today should be a high, if 2/18 was a high...
PS: I can't get any of the Breakout videos to load on my Mac. Anyone else have this problem?
BTW silver still moving up. Blythe is curled up in a corner somewhere.
Ben -- yes, I know. He was so personally invested, and he had been "right" for so long, that it was just inconceivable that he was wrong. I can remember having a one-on-one call with him, maybe towards the end of March of '09, where I asked "what's our edge now?" and he couldn't answer. My point was, we knew that everything was rotten to the core first, but by then, that was old news. He couldn't move on, so I dumped him. But, even though I pulled the plug early, there were still losses, and I had huge gains that were recognized in '08 that I had to pay taxes on, so the whole thing turned out to be net negative when you take the losses and the taxes into account. Sucked, actually. But, motivated me to learn to take care of myself (so now, all my losses are my own...)
I'm not actively fading anything yet, I tried once at 12138 earlier, but it never went my way, so I was out minus 7 tix.
12210 is one I am watching, and 12173 another, but no point in fading any of those until I see some confirmation.
I,
he has hourly, daily, and weekly trades, depending on the time frame being used he already took lots of profits on the way down here so those trades are no longer at risk or just don't exist, these are new trades. From a weekly perspective he's still at a profit as well from the intitial trades so this stop change doesn't put at risk all of the gains and still leaves you with a profit if hit.
he warned the week before he did it that he was attempting to pick a top and that it often takes several tries to do so, after three tries where he was stopped out for minor losses he top ticked 2/18, I'd have to go back and look but the profit on the first move down that was taken was around $2,200 per contract or so if I remember correctly.
AR, actually silver, gold and copper all fell in last 30 min..
being really disciplined with my DZZ.. unlike my ZSL..
@ Ben 11:20
I like it...
I love it...
I wanna LIVE it...
The other night I read about 45 Question of the Weeks at NeoWave site
I come away with the impression that Neely is one cool cat under pressure
goin on his 8th ring, got Phil Jackson Zen
if you know what I'm sayin.....
now, throw those diamonds up
I've been following him very close about 6 months now, the biggest loss I saw him take was about $1,200 on an hourly trade maybe around November of last year, other than that all the losers have been real small and the winners between $800 and $2,000 a contract.
According to Timer's Digest he's killing the S&P over the last three, and six months and over the 5 and 10 year it's a real big difference.
Okay, folks...the kiddos are all home (1st day of spring break) and I need to focus on packing for 5 people to go on Grandma's 70th birthday celebration cruise. Passports, check. everything else...not so much. Cab comes at 4 am tomorrow. If you hear stories about horrible tidal waves in the caribbean, or a family of 5 meeting a shocking death while snorkeling with the stingrays, then just know that I hope the e wave comes and that its a biggie. I'll take a picture of whiskey in a can if I find it. See you in April :-)
So, I-Man is just chillin... drinking coffee, listening to reggae, and reading some Isaiah Chapter 3...
A big fat red candle on the 3min chart, will show the I where to be.
Have fun Jennifer... and promise not to think about this crap once while you are down there.
Matthew
Worked for me, not mac.
Jennifer, wishing you all a wonderful time, and grandmother a very happily memorable birthday!!!
BloombergNow
Buffett: Avoid Long-Term Bonds Tied to Eroding Dollar http://bloom.bg/eGhpDl
Is anyone out there using the 64bit IE?
Hardly anything works with it, youtube, flash... all kinds of shit.
Not sure why I'm using it actually, I have to open a new window in the 32bit IE if I want to watch a video or listen to something on youtube.
Thanks, everyone. Now,I'm really going. Honest.
And I will send you some angle stuff at some point, Bob...
Just slammed between trading, spring salmon, ncaa, and trying to get some early planting done.
I also need to move a huge friggin compost pile and mow my grass... but them damn salmon just wont let me do yardwork.
Use firefox I
Add on you must have-
adblock plus
Noscript works well, but sometimes too well.
No more ads, and way more secure.
Sold an es, tight stop, fx is too insane for even me now.
If we get a rip near or above the previous high on EUR this week, sell.
Gone for a while and you guys let the market drop... alot!
Major 18's
1375
...1244 (close to where this turned last week)
1112
SPX did not breach 1244, 1375 still in the picture for this year.
Minor 18's
1332... next resistence
1314... you are here
1296... brokedown last week, may prove stronger support
1278... eh, just another number
1260... great support, uptrend since
Not an EW counting guy but couldn't this be a SPX daily count somewhere?...
8/31...1049 bottom
11/5...1225 #1
11/30...1180 #2
2/18...1343 #3
3/16...1256 #4
4/?...(1375) #5
or 5/?...(1375) #5
I'm not really bullish, just throwing ideas out there. 18's 1332 will be the next number to jump if this uptrend has legs.
I'm leaning towards about 2:15 NY time...
Buy programs must be set to buy all dips. As soon as TICKS start going negative a lot of buying ensues.
As soon as I write this it will doom me, but ES having a lot of trouble with 1314, more asks than bids on my screen.
Plus with all of the crap going on who in their right mind would want to hold long over the weekend?
AR
Thinking that as well as some people wanting to take profit before the weekend, good run since wed.
Also, 1315 shows as the 76 fib on my chart.
Yeah, just watch out for the low lunchtime volumes... easy to gun levels.
I-Man at 12:19.. like that? yes, you can say that again.. my dzz went green however..
Rush for the exit on EUR
k -
do you haz a target for your dzz?
uup making a high on day while euro and yen drop.. pls let the aussie be next !!
Thats just how dem a flex...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xB1G9EDr6Uw
"Jah pour more rain and wash di pain from di youts, it takes no strength fi tell di truth, One fruit."
dollar hitting the metals hard.. wow..
72bat.. i'm going to exit that trade today, that's all i know.
We might be onto something here...
I like it.
USDCHF has been the weirdo chart this week.
Something is going on that we havent found out about yet.
Guarantee it.
Whats the twitter bird chirping about, Mistress of the Sticks?
Ireland was the last thing i saw before the euro drop.. i will check again.
Holy loonie...
other people are attributing it to plosser's comments..
@karen/Jenn (10:56)(10:58)
"I think I'm overthinking this."
and this, from yesterday...
TODAY TWO LARGE MACRO FUNDS OVER HERE HAVE GONE WILDLY LONG S&P. NOT LONG. WE TALKING 250% NET LONG. IT LOOKS LIKE CONCERTED ACTION ON GDP DGRADES FROM GS AND BOFA ARE THE LETTER DELIVERED TO BEN ON QE3. HUGE DIRECTIONAL BET WITH NEW CAPITAL PUT AT WORK. MOST LIKELY THE TWO INSTITUTIONS ARE COORDINATING ACTION WITH OFFICES IN CONNECTICUT. CHECK INFLOWS OF BLUE CHIP HEDGE FUNDS IN JAN FEB. APPLY 2.5 LEVERAGE. WE ARE TALKING ABOUT SOME 40-60BN PUT AT WORK PRIMARILY ON EMINIS AT THE MOMENT. WHETHER SOME EXTERNAL FORCE WILL LEAVE THEM HIGH AND DRY I DON'T KNOW. BUT IF ANYTHING SEEMED TO BE AT LEAST NOT TOO IRRATIONAL UP TO NOW, IN THIS THIRD WAVE, BE READY FOR REAL ROCK AND ROLL.
"WE TALKING 250% NET LONG..."
Ebonics at it it's finest... So was that and ACTUAL leak, from an ACTUAL trading desk... OR... Just some flunkie in the White House basement putting out a press release (vis-a-vis; "Profit to Earnings look favorable to invest in stocks"... I'm too dumb to know...
Wunsacon referenced Mike Morgan a day or two ago (regarding E Warren articles at the goldman 666 site I think.) I was a Mike Morgan follower for a while. It was great at first, and then, a disaster. He knew all the dirt on all the banks and property developers, so that was great, but he had no technical trading background whatsoever. I kept asking -- if we think that the Dow is going to 6000, and we're near/at that level now, then what next? He didn't have an answer. It was unthinkable to him that we could have a rally that lasted more than a day or two. After the March '09 reversal, he kept shorting and raising stops and going crazy, and blaming Goldman Sachs, and starting the Goldman 666 site, and getting sued, and gave himself a major heartattack from the stress. The bypass surgery required being on heart/lung bypass, which essentially gave him some ministrokes, and he was never the same -- closed/sold all of his businesses and seems to have dissapeared entirely. So...don't raise stops.
He didn't JBTFD...
What ever happened to Mackie? The bald guy on fast money. Anyone know?
He didn't JBTFD...
he just did a good interview with Louise Yamada but I can't remember where I watched that now.
now, nod if you can understand me
Nodding... Not about Macke... But about Louise Yamada saying that an $80 handle on silver looks probable...
AR, actually silver, gold and copper all fell in last 30 min..
being really disciplined with my DZZ.. unlike my ZSL..
(see chart from other evening [Amen Ra's corner]... The one you conspicuously avoided commenting on)...
Go BUCKEYES - GATORS - JAYHAWKS - & GOLDEN EAGLES...
(emphasis on GOLDEN)...
Silver going down. Blythe has a slight smile.
speaking of sticks.. look at BIDU
Go ahead CV, BTD.
I dare ya.
karen
re:BIDU
Today or 2 days ago?
@I-Man
Not trading in "ticks" these days...
Only macro (which means - convert your FRN's to something useful wherever and whenever possible & prudent)...
This week is not a prudent or worthwhile week to trade them for silver bars...
And then again... It would NOT have been a good week to electronically go "short" equities (and thus forefit their buying potential in the hopes of being able to UP my capital gains tax liability...
I've got enough food...
So I guess it's just watching March Madness (for me) at the moment...
I actually think the markets moved themselves because extremes were reached but whatever.. this is what is being assigned as the cause:
Phila. Fed Pres. Plosser Proposes Policy StrategyFont size: A | A | A
Fri Mar 25 12:30:00 EDT 2011 | Briefing.com
Comments from Philadelphia Fed President Plosser about a strategy for the normalization of monetary policy have been hitting newswires. Plosser stated that recent global events may have created some uncertainties, but strengthening of the U.S. economy suggests that it is prudent for policymakers to develop a strategy to normalize monetary policy. Plosser proposes a strategy that involves raising rates and shrinking the balance sheet concurrently and tying the pace of asset sales to the pace and size of interest rate increases.
Plosser's comments have induced selling among commodities. That has clipped the materials sector, which is still up nicely with a 1.0% gain, though. The broader market hasn't made much of a reaction to the statement.
AR, on Bidu.. i meant today and yesterday.. looks very very toppy.. but with 2740 breached.. i guess the sky is the limit!
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/bears-are-back-presenting-part-5-silver-thesis
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dIY8CoMILgU
One way out...
@(1:19)
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/bears-are-back-presenting-part-5-silver-thesis
And so the BRAZILLION DOLLAR QUESTION should be...
Does it inspire one to "dollar cost average" on ZSL...
[rhetorical question]
Love that Allman Bros..! got the volume all the way up!
Allmans kick ass.
BTW, short YM from 12174... looking for 12143 give or take 5 or so. Maybe 12138.
They ALWAYS put on a good show.
CV.. haven't sold any physical silver. most of which i will never sell.. won't be selling my gold either.. giving it to my sons.
i did not throw good money after bad in ZSL, but my DZZ might work.
@karen
remember... DON'T THINK OF CV as an "enemy" here...
I'm ROOTING for silver to go down...
Nothing would please me more than to see "A sale at Penny's!"... (say - at around $28)...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uJSgZYUnQn0
@karen (1:38)
Well in any case... Call CV "rational" about silver...
I posted this SLV chart the other evening...
https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/-QfrBTCUub8o/TYrPuhZg9wI/AAAAAAAADFQ/u64WBXBXUj0/s1600/slv_10.JPG
It's CV's "working" guideline... (until the COUNTS get re-configured, as is OFT the case)...
Nobody... here... took the time to take my effort seriously... So I'll leave it at that...
Ok, so "FRN"'s arent useful, and we arent taking trades because we dont want to pay capital gains taxes...
Did I read you right?
Just want to be clear what your thought process is...
These effin' buy programs are on overdrive.
But they aren't moving the markets higher by that much. Guess some things work until they don't.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jg5wkZ-dJXA
I like this, in spite of myself. The whole thing is worth watching if you haven't seen it yet, nice eye candy, but FF to 13:40
A toast, not safe for work
cv -
"Nobody... here... took the time to take my effort seriously"
i do take seriously for consideration most all the views here, not the least your macro view.
i did particularly take note of your chart and, since i fiddle-farted around back in january on a physical ag (coins) stock-up, would be like flies on sh*t were there a sale @ penney's.
Markets move slow sometimes, but still move up...
Major 18's...
....1588
1537
...1456
1375
...1244
1112
...1006
900
...794
688
Once we moved above a higher major price level, we didn't trade below the level below since 3/09.
All in all, we may see 1242-1260 levels again but 1375 still a possibility, Major 18's are still bullish until 1112 price is taken out. So if you bought at any of these price levels, you'd be doing fine. I don't feel bullish but these numbers do :)
@I-Man (1:50)
I PROMISE... I-Man... That CV will tone down the [sarc] as soon as the gangs of other participants on this blog, start extending me some friggin (even the slightest whiff of) courtesy...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SrPxkAF325g
IMPORTANT NOTE: The metaphorical reference in the you tube clip has 100% to do with whether my MACRO ANALYSIS proves to have been "inspired" (in the end)... I hold no ill will towards anyone (no "ill will" here - just competitive analysis on the balance sheet)...
I'm just trying to show peeps MY SIDE OF THE TRADE (& frankly - "have been" for many months now)... By MY estimates, I've been mostly right (I'm not sure my THEORIES are correct because I can't prove that - but as they say CHARTS DON'T LIE)... Yet as time goes by, the "contempt" for my position appears to grow...
I guess I'll just have to live with it...
bob, i started the kanye video.. looks fantastic!! will have to watch it after the close. thanks!
I'm not trying to give you a hard time. I see your point. I understand your premise, and moreso, I believe it to be sound.
However, I believe the proof is in the TIMING...
It is very dangerous to hold onto a theory, in the face of what the charts are saying.
The USD is a dead "note" walking, but it is also about to go on a rip that is going to kill anyone who is short it, or quasi short it with the metals.
The metals will be an awesome trade as well, but only at the right time.
Re: "courtesy"
What is it you are looking for?
Do you share these thoughts to help illuminate? Or is there ego tied up in there somewhere?
And I do appreciate your ideas, I love em... I love you.
But you hit it, it was the sarcasm that got me.
But its all good, it distracted me from the anger of having it take 3 tries to get that damn short at 12173.
:)
bob -
runaway - thx for that
i love your silver chart, chet.. makes me wanta short it more, tho, LOL..
PS>I never saw that chart before today that i remember.. or i woulda been throwing good money after bad.
...and for reference
If one is completely oblivious... My POV is (and has been)...
- QE 4eva! (don't listen to the jawboning - they HAVE NO OTHER CHOICE)
- Charts are handy - but only if you use them, nowadays, in the context of gleaning NEW "fib levels" or WAVE COUNTS that perhaps need to PRICE IN QE4eva!... Adjust your models accordingly... Incremental fiat debt/money printing IS NOT, I repeat, IS NOT going to be held as "reserves" (save for those brief moments when they need to do a "stress test" dog & pony show to PROVE their determination to act in the best interests of everyone)...
- Keep buying PHYSICAL everything (food, water filters, PM's, lumber, hardware)... SURVIVOR CAPITAL bitchez!
- Instead of trying to "short the market" or "range trade"... Understand that during EACH NEW TRIANGLE, you would have been better served just cashing out on longs, and BUYING PHYSICAL SOMETHING with the paper... (JBTFD... But NOT the paper dip - the PHYSICAL dip)... By the time the next ramp occurs - your FRN's will be worth less, and therefore buy you less (not to mention the taxes you're required to pay for your triumph)...
If I can think of anything else, I'll let you know...
Ok, sounds good, Chet.
In the meantime, I'll focus on doing my best, and taking my payout in "FRN's" that are still accepted as payment at every store in the country.
Who knows, maybe I'll even get rich before the whole shithouse goes up in flames.
slv just had a .20 move in 1 min? anyone else catch it?
@bob -- re Kanye's "toast", where he makes a reference about taking a picture of, well, you know...
Reminded me of Brett Favre:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=POyFvDgV2cU
zerohedge
Confusion Over Fate Of Inflation Reaches All Time Record: Are Bonds Actually Wrong? http://is.gd/lSsAYn
I'm wondering how many will choose to take delivery on Monday? How many contracts are not able to be delivered? Should be interesting.
I'm dying over that!! made my day!!
@karen
i love your silver chart, chet.. makes me wanta short it more, tho, LOL...
See? Now you're talking!... But the thing is this...
I think it's MORONIC (with a chart like that), to be a cowboy/girl and try to "short" it...
A SHORT SQUEEZE (if it were to occur - in this moment of "backwardation" &/or "uncertainty" could carry that thing to HUNT BROS levels on the drop of a dime)... You seriously want to EFF with that possibility???
Not me!... Let IT tell you what it's gonna do...
From my POV... The playbook goes like this...
- QE2 expires in June... One of two things in likely to happen between now and then... a)Either they keep JAWBONING towards the idea of "NO QE3" to keep commodity prices in check, Or b) They let commodity prices collapse (vis a vis 2008), and let equities "correct"... That's the AUSTERITY play (har de har har)... At SOME point, they're going to have to play that card (the - "Oh - if we don't EASE, things are going to disintegrate" card)... I doubt AUSTERITY will last more than a couple of weeks... At that point, CONgress will be BEGGING the Bernank to print more clownbux... At that point, he'll have COVER, because he won't be the crazed central banker anymore, he'll be doing the bidding of POLITICAL WILL... All the better that the political will is now effin' TEAPARTIERS!!!...
- So the issue isn't IF QE18 is coming, it's WHEN... I frankly believe that the IDEA was to have the markets levitate thru June, but the EARTHQUAKE/TSUNAMI/NUCLEAR DISASTER threw a monkey into the wrench... So now there are some plates still spinning (Translation: "trading range")... Regardless - I don't think it'll be too hard to see when the DARK RIFT between QE2 & QEnext occurs... Just wait for it...
I doubt it'll take longer than between now and August...
So those LEVELS on silver (from the chart I posted), are still valid to me at this point...
I LOVE the level where the 161.8% extension (from the PRIOR peak), meets the 61.8% retracement from the level of the PRICE CHANNELS I bolded...
THAT's MY TARGET at the moment (unless something gets out of hand between now and perhaps May where something happens to change the dynamics of that technical channel)...
My 1.618 cents
LOL.. chet, i think you just called me a moron.. : )
@I-Man
What is it you are looking for?
Do you share these thoughts to help illuminate? Or is there ego tied up in there somewhere?
What I am "looking for" was just provided by your response...
THAT'S ALL... A-C-K-N-O-W-L-E-D-G-E-M-E-N-T...
You're probably not "sensitive" to it the way I am (because you don't happen to be the DISSENTING VIEWPOINT on the Fed "board meeting" at the moment)...
Instead, EVERY DAY I read on this blog about 20 handle YM movements...
So you tell me... Which is more EGO related?
- a "hamburger bet" on the YM close 20 ticks higher or lower on any given day? (and 90% of the commentary devoted to slicing & dicing that)?
OR
- 0% commentary on whether or not the FRN's used to TRADE those 20 ticks on the YM will actually represent an honored & trusted fiat currency in 10 years time...
It's TOO ESOTERIC I suppose... Maybe I should have registered ESOTERIC CAPITAL instead of SURVIVAL CAPITAL
jk - yo! :-)
@Amen
I'm wondering how many will choose to take delivery on Monday? How many contracts are not able to be delivered? Should be interesting.
I'm not (wondering)...
They'll take the cash over spot premium payout... (this time)
ORDER RESTORED...
JPM has its own vaults now... In the future, it won't even be a problem (or so they'll try to convince you)...
120 x 15 kg per "cruise missle" (in Libya)...
"Blown up sir!"
ain't going away...
@karen
No way!!! MORON??? No siree!
You read it wrong...
I called you a "COWGIRL"
Most guys around here would tell you that's the farthest thing in the world from being a moron! :-)
See, now you're just being an asshole.
I could give a shit if you think its "ego" that I talk tape on here.
If anything, its "loneliness".
Is that honest enough for you?
Maybe, just maybe someone reads my stuff and they can make some money off of it.
Or maybe they want to know what all this gann and angle shit is about, and it makes them curious enough to learn it.
Thats my goal...
Now, I ask you again, what is yours?
Seems to me that you're pretty quick to say "Look everyone, at this awesome call I made!"
And quick to blame it on the Fed, or the Illuminati, or a natural disaster or some shit like that when you're wrong.
I'll try hard to not sound like an arrogant piece of shit when I say this, but I think I make my fair share of good calls around here, and I dont think I've ever called attention to one of them.
And if I have, its "ALL PRAISES TO JAH."
I think I gotta stay away from here for awhile now.
This aint what I come here for.
Good luck with your "theories"...
Maybe DL has a blog somewhere I can hang out at.
I thought we were fucking traders
I-Man... pls don't go.. at least see this day thru with me.
i like your comments about market direction and the turns..
and you had a thesis on this day.. price and time.. and i want to see what happens..
@I
I read everything, well when I have the time and I know my "18" stuff may be crap, but the levels do make good entry points where I have made more than I've lost. I do follow your price levels, just convert them over to SPX levels, sort of... LOL, I like numbers and appreciate what you post.
@I-Man
However you read what I typed...
You had it totally wrong... (OR - I'm not ashamed to admit... I TYPED it totally wrong)...
So... accept my apologies if you think I made a blatant attempt to offend you... Criticism or "marginalization" was the furthest from my mind (really - seriously)...
I was just trying to differentiate the perspectives...
Blogging is a poor medium (for that)...
And... FOR THE LOVE OF JAH... Don't Go!... I have no doubts that your input around here is more nourishment than mine own ("daily bread" - so to speak)...
TO ALL
If it makes any difference... THIS is EXACTLY what I'd hoped this blog would be about from the very beginning...
ZEROHEDGE (whether you like them or not) doesn't have it "totally wrong"...
It's a FIGHT CLUB
You have to fight EVERY DAY (or you die)... Otherwise - your name is MANNWICH, DL, or THOR...
and in that case... You're DEAD already!
CV
i personally would not put DL in the same bucket as Mannwich or Thor.. my goodness.
for those still trading..., Presenting The Generic Trader's Desktop
We can hug it out sometime.
But if this was Zerohedge, I wouldnt come here, CV.
Good -- I couldn't possibly go away thinking that you guys were fighting. Plus, I'm going to the library to return all my overdue Thomas the Tank Engine movies this afternoon and I was already planning to see what they might have on Gann (a little light poolside reading, no doubt.)
Extreme Stocks
Symbol Last Change %
KUBOTA CORP 24.9125 +14.5425 +140.24
ASTEA INTL 5.76 +1.76 +47.50
BODY CENTRAL 23.00 +4.50 +24.32
TOKYO ELECTRI 12.75 -18.55 -59.27
HYPERDYNAMICS 5.30 -0.71 -11.65
RESEARCH IN 57.1800 -6.9075 -10.62
http://www.ino.com/
ibid.
72bat
I was LMAO at the paperclip suggestions.
@ Jenn
We're big Thomas fans over here...
And its tough to find Gann, if you can get 45 Years on Wall St, thats a good one.
Also, Truth of the Stock Tape.
And if you want "lite," go with "The Tunnel Thru the Air" (if you find yourself part way into it wondering, whats this got to do with trading?, just stick with it.) It was his masterpiece far as I'm concerned.
Incidentally, I have found the stuff that others have written about Gann's methods to be way more complicated and harder to understand than anything Gann himself wrote.
well, from my POV, fwiw..
cv-- can sound like a d**k, but, I don't think he, really, means it that way..
I think he's, just, interested in ~(a convo/sounding board/backboard to bounce some thoughts off)
+ it is *helpful to take a longer-term view, at least, every once in awhile..
AAIP
@I-Man
And remember something my brother...
BACK IN THE DAY (of the "Puttin on the Ritz" blog), it was YOU & I that used to escape together to abandoned threads to "TALK TAPE" (even to be admonished by the man himself for having done that)...
Suffice it to say (in the aftermath)...
- ANDY T... In my book... deserves 100% credit for shepherding a following from that blog and "distilling" into something more relevant to TRADING...
- CV "took over" that effort... just in a "PUBLICATION" sense over a year ago... (simply to keep it from de-volving into some kind of EXPERIENTIAL riff raff [think: "Thor/Denise & Minions"]... OTHERWISE - This might be a "travel blog" now...
- AMEN RA has been the BACKBONE all along (since the departure of Andy)... And REALLY, from the very beginning... Like the "I-Man"... AMEN RA & CV "kicked it" quite often during the summer of '09 at Ritzy's)...
- CV is really NOTHING towards this effort... All I really do is offer PERSPECTIVE... "Take it or leave it"... But I don't make this stuff up as I go along (as - perhaps a YEAR'S WORTH of daily threads may have demonstrated)...
I don't MARGINALIZE anyone...
& I DON'T EXPECT TO BE THUS MARGINALIZED...
As always... It's my 1.618 "brazillion" cents...
Take it or leave it (like DL - who I offered an apology to one day - which he apparently was TOO OFFENDED to accept - & therefore, I assume now works for Blythe Masters)...
Link provided upon request...
CV
Have a good wknd everyone,
-I
"...Incidentally, I have found the stuff that others have written about Gann's methods to be way more complicated and harder to understand than anything Gann himself wrote..."
from what I've seen.. x2
ibid.
man....I missed the big party here today I see
think I'll refrain from any comments for now, it's too close to Saturday.
had my annual compliance review today
guys, it's been such a great day, my OSJ noticed all these books on my desk and charts hanging up above it.....so he says
what's that stuff?
35 minutes later and I think I may have turned the guy into a chartist! I never thought in a million years a compliance person would be interested.
anyway, I'll either have bought those puts today near the high or I'll be stopped out next week
I'm still bearish....yup.
I accept your apology, and I'm sorry for getting all riled up...
Market probably had something to do with me getting emo.
Peace.
"Incidentally, I have found the stuff that others have written about Gann's methods to be way more complicated and harder to understand than anything Gann himself wrote."
How interesting, I always thought RN Elliotts market letters book was the easiest wave book to read.
@karen
i personally would not put DL in the same bucket as Mannwich or Thor.. my goodness.
I'll acknowledge you on that...
But CV "TOTALLY" laid himself out to offer a heartfelt apology...
ZERO acknowledgement from that... ZILCH...NADA...
So when someone (in my book), has the heart & level of understanding to LOOK ANOTHER MAN IN THE EYE and accept an apology... Shake hands... Then say "It's alight my friend"... Then I know that they're not just running away...
You know peeps... SURE... This is all an ELECTRONIC medium... But I don't care... If people are not clever enough with their...
- command of language
- intensity & persistence of effort
- true beliefs (which means CONFIDENCE "in" them)
Then... Well by golly, I think that whether the situation is "face to face", or "across the interenet"... Then it's destined to be a struggle...
My 2.618 "brazillion" cents...
@ben
think I'll refrain from any comments for now, it's too close to Saturday
***k that!
"THE TAR HEELS BLOW GOATS" :-)... lol
There... Now you're ready to DIVE RIGHT IN :-)
CV
CV,
let me do a couple frou frou bongs and I'll see what I can come up with.
@AAIP
cv-- can sound like a d**k, but, I don't think he, really, means it that way...
OF COURSE I MEAN IT THAT WAY :-)
What did you think? :-) (jkjkjkjkjkjkjkjkjk)
But really... What most of you, I hope, know by now is that what Marks said there holds a great deal of TRUTH)...
---
Let's put it this way...
- I PURPOSEFULLY act like a dick (at times)
- It's an ACT (to evoke 'emotive' responses)
Call me the "new" THE GREAT CNBC SUCKS of the periphral blogosphere [sans the "tits"])...
I swear... I'm NOT just trying to get my rocks off... But in my HUMAN experience (which spans 45 countries worldwide)... It's the only way I know to get closer to (and therefore EXPEDIATE) the truth...
Someone should email all the Duke players a picture of Derrick Williams posterizing their teammate. ROR.
BTW...
CV "LOVED" these comments (in the last hour)
How interesting, I always thought RN Elliotts market letters book was the easiest wave book to read...
35 minutes later and I think I may have turned the guy into a chartist! I never thought in a million years a compliance person would be interested.
I think there is a nascent [sp?] chartist in ALL OF US... It's our NATURE to want to stuff ORDER into CHAOS (with the ultimate mis-acknowledgement that the very order of the universe has a mathematical ARCHITECTURAL framework)...
Incidentally, I have found the stuff that others have written about Gann's methods to be way more complicated and harder to understand than anything Gann himself wrote
Look at my SLV chart (linker earlier)... CV is kind of "esoteric" with GANNS, but I use them all the time & reflect them in what I decide to publish...
My only regret is that I need to do more DILIGENCE in applying "longer" term LOG versions of them... (a topic which was discussed HERE the other evening, for those of you who think I just make stuff up on a whim and don't consider the entire picture - I believe the LOG scale graphical [vs. straight arithmetic] is highly worth considering...
I couldn't possibly go away thinking that you guys were fighting. Plus, I'm going to the library to return all my overdue Thomas the Tank Engine movies
Thank JAH that someone is smart enough (and has two feet on the ground) to bring ALL WORLDS together...
CV
if you want to see some, serious, 'b/c of gov't' G*rbage..
...24 Pa. Walmart stores getting wine kiosks
7 minutes ago
(AP:HARRISBURG, Pa.) The self-service wine kiosks being used at some Pennsylvania groceries are coming to 24 Walmart stores across the state.
Pennsylvania Liquor Control Board spokeswoman Stacey Witalec said Friday the board has approved the Walmart wine kiosks and contracts are being reviewed by the attorney general's office.
Witalec said it will probably be months before any Walmart stores have the automated wine bottle dispensing machines up and running.
The board shut down about 30 grocery store wine kiosks in December because they were not operating properly. Witalec said most of those issues have been resolved.
"We are still seeing some technical issues, but certainly nothing that rose to the level of what brought the shutdown," she said.
The kiosks are located at certain Wegmans, Fresh Grocer, Brown's Family ShopRite, Giant Eagle, Supervalu, Genuardi's, Acme, Giant Food, and other stores. The Liquor Control Board is working on getting about 100 such kiosks installed around the state, and Witalec said it's possible the project may be expanded beyond that.
The board approved the Walmart kiosks in January, and they were discussed during a legislative budget hearing on Tuesday...
http://news.ino.com/headlines/?newsid=6897767077700
AAIP
AAIP
Ohhh instant Boone's Farm, Wild Irish Rose, Thunderbird.
ROR
AR,
it's, really, sad..
the PLCB couldn't be 'privatised' quick enough..
ibid.
I wouldn't ever group anyone alongside Thor...that guy is in a league all his own and he's the MVP.
I think everyone here is decent and good in there own ways.
I'm heading out to the last bastion of Capitalism in this country: Warrenton/Roundtop Antique Festival (to hang out with my wife). I'll be back Sunday and will post stuff. Will try to get something longer term on the Yen.
Once again....won't bet against anyone named Shaka Smart. Go VCU.
Would love to see OSU and Kansas go down at this point....
Make it a real free for all.
Peace out. AT.
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