EURUSD (weekly info)new high 1.4137
trend=up
high= 1.4137
rev= 1.3660; mid= 1.3899
Are we witnessing a double top in EURUSD? Came very close to its 11/10 high. Thanks to Portugal the high may now be in. Currently the weekly candle is bearish thrusting but may turn into a dark cloud cover or bearish engulfing before the week is over.
IWM/SPY Liquidity (weekly info)-no change (above mid)
trend=no
direction=down (1 bar)
low= 0.6010
rev= 0.6281; mid= 0.6154
For a market that seems ready to break down, liquidity is still increasing. Is it retail coming in at the end of the trend? Has The Bernank issued the all clear? Are we approaching the edge of the cliff?
147 comments:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/42244041
Germany Steps Away From European Unity
...If this speculative article is true, this would be the most important news of the year, in my opinion. It would mean that the Germans have decided to take care of Germany, and that peripheral Europe may not be salvagable in the EU as it currently stands. Remember Germany now has a balanced budget amendment that goes into full effect in 3 years. No other country in Europe, save possibly Switzerland, has made any overtures in this manner.
I would think, if I were a betting man, that Germany will do very well no matter what happens to the rest of us. I am not as convinced about China.
Sorry I haven't posted much lately. We've been very busy. Rebought the UPRO and a couple of Japan funds.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-24/moody-s-downgrades-30-spanish-banks-maintains-ratings-for-santander-bbva.html
Moody’s Cuts Ratings on 30 Spanish Banks After Country Downgrade
So what happened in the AH to push futures to these extremes? Anyone? Bueller?
good morning!! hope i didn't miss much in last night's thread.. i managed to nab David Stockman interview which I listened to part way.. had to go to bed.. btw..
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-24/worst-texas-drought-in-44-years-eroding-wheat-beef-supply-as-food-rallies.html
1302.. was the overnight high??
karen
I think the AH session is trying to setup a blow through stops type of morning. Because they've failed in their efforts so far.
The dollar is getting ridiculous now.. i think it is a buy..
this is amazing.. mind boogling: http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2011/03/amazing-statistic-in-housing-market.htm
Sales are now just half the pace of 1963 -- even though there are 120 million more people in the United States now.
oops..
http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2011/03/amazing-statistic-in-housing-market.html
UFB, open.. AR at 9:17.. dead on.. tho many were waiting for 1304 to short.. so we will see.
http://ewallstreeter.com/syndicated/38382/capital-one-financial-down-dividend-item-to-blame
and now that's it.. i'm not going to subject you to my link fests any longer!
Karen,
I agree with whoever said that jobs are a big reason the housing market isn't recovering. Plus, well, 100% financing, loans to non-qualified buyers, and yada yada and yada...
i'm watching copper today.. if it doesn't return sub 53 (along with FCX) than forget shorting anything..
Bruce! please tell what your brother got!! I love your home.. and how far away is he from you?
He is probably going to buy the buy of a lifetime. 4000 foot home built in 1998 (gorgeous), full basically new barn with horse stalls (very nice), separate 3 car garage with MIL upstairs furnished, bordered on one side by all year mountain stream (about 7-8 feet wide), 8 acres, spring fed pond, and he will get it for 2/3 the listing price of 2 years ago. (Wife's husband died.)
This is a steal. I could not believe it when he and his wife took us out to see it.
Glad someone else sees these things-
http://www.forexlive.com/175623/all/irish-govt-no-expectations-of-rate-cut-on-bailout-loan-at-summit
The summit to end all summits (we were led to believe) will not sort out the final details of the Irish bailout nor the final funding metrics for the ESM (the goal of the summit). Other than that, it will achieve all its goals…
Unreal…
He will be about 12 miles from our farm.
bruce.. if permissible, can you send us a link to the listing? or maybe post some pics on your foto blog when time permits? the latter might be better to preserve privacy.. i'd love to see architecture, landscape, etc.. not interior pics, necessarily.
way to go BAC! down, LOL.. great work by the fed and treasury creating these SUPER TBTFs
Keith McCullough
Americans aren't dumb enough to take on The Bernank's dare to lever themselves up again
HARDLY TRUE! many credit card debts were negotiated for cents on the dollar.. others written off..
NLY getting into the danger zone
CRZO lost its moving averages.
Couldn't overtake ES VWAP on that little move up.
Walgreen's is buying drugstore.com so it's up 111%.. how great would it have been to have owned that!
Myanmar just got a 7.0.. 2 of them from twitter reports.. only one showing here:
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsww/
ketih McCullough in some ways appears wrong
at the very least, the idea that the beard will support markets is mainstream, and margin is at 07 highs....which is leverage of course
@J,
re: CRZO
look at that chart this morning! it seems to be falling under its own weight and there are no gaps
also, thanks for the link last night to the volume review on the futures taking out the small lot orders, that was a lot of interesting data
Ben -- glad you liked that. They find some really interesting stuff over there. (Of course, I'm not sure what to do with most of it!)
Durable goods WTE in all categories. Consumer comfort index at its lowest in years. WTI holding above 105. Silver about to break 38. Yet the market is still trying to push higher. Bah humbug.
FXA.. we can't go down til it does.
Jennifer
I've seen stuff like that before where you set Level 2 to show only lots of 500 or greater. One of the ways to watch the big boys.
Hee hee. The algos keep looking for buy stops just above 1300 but keep finding sells instead.
If this turns into a repeat of yesterday I will be really upset.
and FXE at HOD.. everything makes perfect sense.. yup.
Remember the older financial advisor I told you about a long time ago (friends w/ my dad, spent a week hanging out in his office 2 summers ago) well they are visiting my folks now (and undoubtably spending some time on that nice green pictured above...) well, he had a ton of clients in ...Lubrizol. Needless to say, they are all very happy.
I have some issues with this most recent SPX 60 minute candle. It should not be green.
Karen,
Check your e-mail...
Sorry, busy.
BinT
EEM looks shortable here.
whoa -- huge trin move
ok, here's something I'll throw out for discussion
how many people try charting in log scale but with arithmetic fibo retracements?
@Jennifer,
now Im' not remembering if it was in that link but on top of all the volume information, did you see the spike in P/C ratio yesterday?
Bears need a reversal today or tomorrow at the very latest
Otherwise, we might need to learn to paddle in another direction for a while....
I'm staying patient for now.
@AT,
On SPY, the 61.8% retrace of the whole move is 130.53
if we retrace above that does it squash the d wave in your view?
also, what do you think about the idea of a diametric rather than an ET going on here
the d wave shouldn't have been this strong it seems
That 10:55-11:05 move was to close that damn gap from 3/14. Without the extra push it would not get filled. Now that that's over can we get on with the down move? WTI now holding above 106, silver blew through 38, gold at new highs.
106.23...it won't be pretty soon..
a bull flag within a bull flag within a bull flag within a bull flag
great if you are long!
Lawrence McDonald
Euro Dollar (1.42) strength is bizarre in the face of a Portugal meltdown, mkt clearly pricing in ECB interest rate hikes well ahead of USA
Ben
I don't like log scales because, almost by definition, they make recent trends less easy to see.
Over decades it may be a different story.
Karen,
What'd ya think?
Bruce, I didn't receive anything from you.. not sure what email address you used for me..
CAT new high today..
So...think the Neely trade is going to get stopped out?
Laszlo Birinyi: Market Is Only Halfway Through Bull Run http://dlvr.it/LKcS1
This market is like watching a traffic accident in slow motion...
last 3 days, spy could not get above mid point on 6 month BB chart.. today it opened above and took off.
SPX 60 min 50 sma is at 1309.87 -- looks like we will get there. Should be resistance, but today, who knows.
Jennifer
That's odd because the 50% of the 0%-14.6% retrace on the monthly 3LB is 1309.86.
52 here today, overcast skies and damp from overnight rain.. i just make a blazing hot fire.. it is the end of march.. haven't put run the heater once this winter and won't give in now : )
dont' even look at agq from january..
I used the address on you blogsite...sorry I am so intermittent today, we're swamped.
just did some charts.. the real number for the spx today is 1311 or so..
bears can JGTFU at that point, imo.
will send to ben. 1300 was a line in the sand, but 1311 is absolutely it..
karen
Shhh!! The algos might hear you :-)
BTW 1311.11 is the weekly 3LB mid.
Bruce.. there is nothing in that gmail address inbox.. odd. i will go to your blog and email you my address..
okay, bruce that doesn't work because i don't see your email there : )
YM 12210 tomorrow morning, 3/25, should cap it...
Bob,
yes, short term trends wont' show up much on the log
many ta's (most?) swear by log charts though over periods of more than 3-4 years
arithmetic seem to show price retracements better
I utilize both but have much more confidence in log charts long term, the idea being with people working with all different amounts, what matters are the percentages.
agree.. i take log out of 3 and 4 year charts..
Speaking of retracements... just for kicks take your fibs out of the scale, and sub in the plain old geometrical proportions of 100, 75, 50, 25, and 12.5...
Might be surprised by what you see...
@Jennifer,
I primarily operate off the weekly trades right now with Neely's service, nothing stopped out yet.
this is something to see! you must look at these charts on the different scales..
http://pragcap.com/commodity-prices-world-demand-fun-with-government-data
$compq MUST stay below 2740
i made a special case for he dow, because it's THE PEOPLES index.. 12200..
131.50 spy..
what's with the google homepage today, what's that design supposed to be?
this all makes sense in bizzaro world:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Euros-Collapse-Is-Not-cnbc-1267399148.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=2&asset=&ccode=
At first glimpse, I thought it was Houdini...
this is an interesting video, not from the aspect of women in finance but the discussion on investor risk appetite.. it is from 8 March.. Japan earthquake was 3-11.. (yikes, 11 is shaping up to be a scary day of the month..)
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/67405792/
Someone is knocking down the silver price. Someone else is working on WTI.
Monday is looming for PMs.
Nothing will come of the EU summit.
For Bob:
http://www.thedailybell.com/1922/EU-Bust-Up-Seems-Closer-As-Portuguese-Default-Looms.html
I was watching that show Pawn Stars late a few weeks back, guy brought in an actual set of Houdini's cuffs, can't remember the number but they were worth a lot of money.
APMEX just sent me an email w/ an ad for silver below spot. Top?
I see I missed another oppty to BTD while I was away.
I
EUR went from 14050 to 14224 on the news.
Reality matters little, leverage matters big, and retail shorts are SCREAMING right now.
I
And look at the 1h on the EUR now...is that another flag?
i love the euro but it doesn't even have a cohesive tax system to back it up..
if euo makes a lower low (17.68 previous) I may just go for it.. missed YCS but it only woulda been good for one lousy point and has since languished..
ben -
Harry Houdini 137th Birthday Google Logo
excellent, imo:
http://www.dynamichedge.com/2011/03/24/hand-crafted-short-squeeze-reversal/
from the same blog: I’m feeling like we’re at the crossroads of a big sentiment trade. The market doesn’t owe you new highs because you were “brave” enough to buy the nuclear meltdown trade. By the same token, like the market doesn’t owe you new lows because you were prudent when others were reckless.
Hopefully we have a little bit more two-way trade in the near term before we go back into grind mode. I’m very cautious here. Remember, the market owes you nothing.
http://www.dynamichedge.com/2011/03/21/complacency/
Not sure, havent even been watching it, just saw the 1.42 print earlier and was giving Jah Bob some props...
Could be, I'm long for another run and gun in the YM. Looking at 12138 or so for this one.
jbtfd
By my clock, we're due for a minor trend change on the 3min YM chart at about 10 til 3pm, NY time.
Thats when I'm looking to book gains on this one.
It peaked on tuesday, to the pip of that 261
oh brother, BP is now short gold and silver again as of now
I should buy SLV calls back.....
Prechter??
So, it's the Houdini Rally!
I knew there must be a catalyst!
Nurse, adrenaline shot please... the patient has flatlined.
ha! i "advised" my husband-x to sell the usagx he bot as it was in the money yesterday and surely still today.. turns out he only threw 25k at it..
Your "X" want to bankroll the I-Man for his June equity campaign?
Gonna be epic...
That was a joke, btw...
"I'm just kiddin like Jason... unless ya gun do it."
:)
yeah, not the oil company
ole bobby P.
I think this is about the 34th time shorting gold and the 62nd time shorting silver
I don't get the short term charts anymore but I used to send them to AT when I did so he can back me up here when I say they likely have a 1-2 label from today's highs
I don't even have the heart to laugh about it
I certainly don't share the euphoria on the pm's that many do....but shorting here?
bold
Misguided to say the least... not with my money.
oooh, look at it now, a third wave down is imminent in SLV
I'm tempted to buy this mini dip just to fade those guys, but that'd be stupid.
acknowledgement that the crisis still persists:
Japan says must review nuclear power policy as crisis persists http://tinyurl.com/4v2d2y7
Breaking: Yemen's president and top general are hashing out a deal to resign within days http://on.wsj.com/f4zeyQ
nakedtrader.com
Hearing: NATO to take command of Libya.
Check out this f**king chart
http://bbs.cobrasmarketview.com/download/file.php?id=1204&mode=view
Ben -- went back and re-read the Neely stuff. I suspect that his perspective will have changed even though the weekly trades haven't been stopped out. ES has traded above both 1294 and 1304, which were important #s for the hourly and day traders. Interesting to see what tomorrow's update brings.
oh....that's forking
8-)
Jennifer,
he might not change much, might just move to the diametric interpretation instead
we'll know within 24 hours I guess
ben.. best thing.. most interesting chart, i've seen all day.. thanks!
Dont fuck with the fork, yo...
suppose this gap will get closed now too....1320 next stop then....
I don't agree with that blah blah about Newtons law though within the chart
it aint physics peeps!
oh, sh*t on spx
Its Gann in disguise... just like all other forms of TA.
haha...
that's that! and a close above.. ugly.. btw bot dzz at 7.75..
Alpha and Omega...
hope these are famous last words: Dow industrials up more than 100 points in final hour of session
03/24/2011 03:26:24 PM
why don't i cancel those headlines... so annoying and worthless.
Whats the point of a lower high in a nascent downtrend if the herd isnt convinced its a downtrend yet?
If the herd thought this was a new downtrend, there would be no lower high to sell.
Just an observation...
To put it bluntly, we need everyone who thinks this is just a "correction" to buy, and we need everyone who wants to short, or is already short, to get burned.
Then we have a lower high.
Reuters Top News
Radiation scare leaves Tokyo short of bottled water reut.rs/eWzlYq
My friend was told if she tried to send water to her friends in Tokyo, it would be stolen..
who needs water when you can print yen?
CME hikes silver margins...again.
gld tryng to hang on to 50 ema on 60 min chart.. that's a false hope..
AR, maybe the margin raise will be seen as bullish (i.e., desperate) as the last one? slv barely budged and took to the skies after the last raise..
Bespoke
With 20 minutes left in the day, the Nasdaq needs just 4 more points to get to its 50-day. $$
(that's also my 2740 number..
it has no impact, if people are bullish enough you could raise margin every day for a week and they'd just buy more
I think that's two in the last three months on silver right?
topstep: Goldie sells 400 to 500 SPMs last 5 mins
ben
I believe so. The last one was when silver was trying to stay below $30.
Maybe Goldie had an early peak at GDP...
RIMM after the close.. should be very very bad.. androids and iphones rule.
SPX right up against trendline coming down from 1344 peak.
Jenn.. i have that pegged at 1311ish on my chart.. AR, has 1311.11 as important 3LB #.
oops.. and 131.50 SPY, or slightly under..
@J,
AT knows way more than me about the Neo wave methods
he mentioned here a few days ago this gap getting closed at 1318-1320 area and said nothing about the count changing there so we might see nothing different from Neely tomorrow at all
unfortunately I've had to set that book to the side for a time to focus on some other ones.
Not sure exactly where it lines up, but this is what I see...
http://screencast.com/t/8iXFMs3ZqdEb
SMA(55) 1302.12
EMA(55) 1291.73
SMA(50) 1305.01
EMA(50) 1294.25
So todays goal was to stay above EMA(50) and try and get a close above SMA(50). That would hopefully convince the bulls all is safe in lala land.
Later, traders. I need some time to think about this (horrible) day!
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-24/plaza-hotel-condo-sold-for-48-million-sets-manhattan-real-estate-record.html
Later yall, off to hunt chrome slime rockets...
I sold Silver today.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/someone-leak-something
Something rather disturbing from a European trading desk...
TODAY TWO LARGE MACRO FUNDS OVER HERE HAVE GONE WILDLY LONG S&P. NOT LONG. WE TALKING 250% NET LONG. IT LOOKS LIKE CONCERTED ACTION ON GDP DGRADES FROM GS AND BOFA ARE THE LETTER DELIVERED TO BEN ON QE3. HUGE DIRECTIONAL BET WITH NEW CAPITAL PUT AT WORK. MOST LIKELY THE TWO INSTITUTIONS ARE COORDINATING ACTION WITH OFFICES IN CONNECTICUT. CHECK INFLOWS OF BLUE CHIP HEDGE FUNDS IN JAN FEB. APPLY 2.5 LEVERAGE. WE ARE TALKING ABOUT SOME 40-60BN PUT AT WORK PRIMARILY ON EMINIS AT THE MOMENT. WHETHER SOME EXTERNAL FORCE WILL LEAVE THEM HIGH AND DRY I DON'T KNOW. BUT IF ANYTHING SEEMED TO BE AT LEAST NOT TOO IRRATIONAL UP TO NOW, IN THIS THIRD WAVE, BE READY FOR REAL ROCK AND ROLL.
i can't leave till rimm reports..
AT,
dude, you be trading with Hochberg
good luck
any thoughts on market today?
karen
Must mean GDP might be negative. Ruh roh?
AR,
I've a hard time believing that D.C. would lay out a - GDP #, here...
we're getting into 'end of Month/QTR' and warming up for the 'Summer Vacay'-planning Season..
~~
This 'Market' looks well 'in-hand' ..
AAIP
RIMM has some serious f****** problems.
ibid.
the only thing that might 'save' the share price is 'short-interest'..
Pump Truck with Long Boom Headed to Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant
March 24th, 2011
…usually used for concrete pouring…
Via: Xinhua:
A Chinese-made pump truck with a long boom will leave Shanghai for Japan Tuesday after the owner of the troubled Fukushima Dai-Ichi nuclear power plant requested it, according the vehicle’s manufacturer.
The vehicle with a 62-meter boom is scheduled to be shipped Tuesday morning. It is expected to arrive at the port of Osaka, Japan on Wednesday or Thursday.
The vehicle was manufactured by Sany Heavy Industry Co., Ltd. based in Changsha, capital city of central China’s Hunan Province, for a customer in Saudi Arabia.
On March 19, the Tokyo Electric Power Co. (TEPCO), which owns the Fukushima power plant, asked the Chinese embassy in Japan and Sany for the pump truck.
With the Saudi Arabian customer’s agreement, Sany decided to provide the pump truck to TEPCO free of charge. The vehicle, usually used for concrete pouring, is valued at 1 million U.S. dollars.
http://cryptogon.com/?p=21412
ibid.
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