A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection.
Creditcane™: Olá. Como você está. Foi um prazer conhecê-lo hoje.
SPXBullish short day (failed to confirm bearish harami). Midpoint above EMA(10). Failing SMA(55). Still above the 38.2% retrace (1278.72). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1306.10). QE2infinity. "JBTFD. Don't question it. Just do it."
DXYBullish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still below the 0.0% retrace (75.63) from 11/4/10. Below all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 76.33).
VIXBearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Now below SMA(144). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 29.32). Still below monthly 3LB & weekly 3LB mid. Back in the "no fear" zone.
GOLDBullish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). No test of 0.0% retrace. Still above all SMA's. Daily 3LB reversal up (reversal is 1392.80). Holding above upper trend line. Must have the precious.
EURUSDBearish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Well above 1.3870 (the 61.8% retrace). Above all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1.3978). Is the run up over?
JNKDoji day (confirmed hanging man). Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above SMA(21). Back below its 50.0% retrace (40.42). Still below lower trend line. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 39.87).
10YR YIELDBullish long day. No test of 0.0% retrace at 37.44. Still holding SMA(89). Midpoint below EMA(10). Held the upper trend line. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 33.93).
WTISpinning top day. Still above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). No test 0.0% retrace. Holding above the 14.6% retrace (103.64). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 106.41).
SILVERBullish long day. Still above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Obliterated 0.0% retrace and made a new one. Holding upper trend line. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 34.11).
TLTBearish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above SMA(89). Still above lower trend line. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 89.68).
BKXHammer day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed SMA(89). Tested and failed its 38.2% retrace (51.48). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 53.31).
On the subject of "whether or not" CV has ANY aptitude on DOING ANYTHING WHATSOEVER... Of course... The "ABOVE" video was CV just "making it up as I went along" (I just woke up one day and could do those moves... No practice was necessary, NO DEDICATION, just "did" it)... No real research or STUDY there... I just happened to wake up one morning and think "these are the moves I want to do" today...
OR...
Probably more appropriate is with regards to my ONE TIME & FORMER friend... "Madonna"... We USED to kick it... Hell - I even choreographed a whole damned WORLD TOUR STAGE routine for her...
In the END... It got me... a succesive decade PLUS of fame in Italy (where I long to return... 'cept for certain promises & obligations, WHICH, as in my 'Bobby Jones' references above, it's not in my character to renig on)... But for "The Material Girl" herself... It wasn't important... It was just part of her rise to greater fame... As I suppose it is with all of you TRADERS here...
So I have little more else to say... (except for the occasional DRIVE BY)... "GET INTO THE GROOVE" (with your trading)... As the case may be... CV
(No "offense" WHAMMER - Just a plug for Roy Hobbs... THE NATURAL... :-)
57 comments:
AR -- is that green at TPC Sawgrass?
Jennifer
Yes. I forgot which hole it is though. I think it's the 17th.
My folks winter there.
true, #17 TPC Sawgrass
AAIP
http://www.tpc.com/TPCSawgrass.aspx
http://www.pgatour.com/tournaments/r011/
http://www.ticketmaster.com/event/22004634BF7D5B57
http://www.insideflorida.com/detail/tpc-sawgrass/
for more..~
It's the third day of trading after a weekly 3LB reversal down and there has been no test of the weekly 3LB mid. There are still two days left in the week but it's not looking good. The SPX is having problems staying above 1300 much less testing the mid. Now that the EURUSD may be ready to go into free fall it may be too late for the SPX to make another run at it. A weekly close below 1279.20 is confirmation of the reversal.
New thread
Thanks for that, AR. When you put it that way, it seems so bearish. Do you think there are a lot of short stops right above 1300? If so, I would think there would be an effort to pop them.
Jennifer
The opening gap down from 3/14/11 has yet to be filled. They traded into the gap and failed multiple times today. Doesn't mean they won't try again. I wouldn't get too bearish just yet. Trading using weekly info can test ones patience. A weekly confirmation would add to my bearishness though.
http://singerprofitcharts.blogspot.com/2011/03/spx-s-500-cash-monthly.html
Interesting -- aside from "resistance" what's the black line? It isn't a fib, right?
There's some new stuff up on the Martin Armstrong site. My kids are all busy and my husband is working late, so I'm having fun with charts and blogs.
I've killed that hole so many times
......on Tiger Woods golf, that is
in real life, I'd likely be in the drink.
I've never played it, but my parents have. My mom is fantastic, but my father is horrible! He is blind in one eye with no depth perception...loses tons of balls everytime they play there. Fun to take their friends though.
@J,
what black line are you talking about on the chart?
Jennifer
That black line is composed of the highs in 2006 before the run up to the 2007 highs and where it plateaued in 2008 before continuing the down move.
You'll also notice that a trend line using the 3/09 & 7/10 lows is around 1250 this month. That's the event horizon so to speak.
What's the theory behind resistance from such a long time ago? Still valid? Or too old to matter? Has a bit of "trying too hard" look to me. Thanks everyone! Bed time rituals beckon so I don't know when I'll be back.
Last week the the SPX formed a hammer on the weekly chart and would need a close above last weeks high (1301.19) to confirm the hammer. So far not so good.
Jennifer
Previous highs/lows are psychological. Besting an old high is uplifting and breaking below an old low is depressing. Doesn't really matter to me as that isn't what I look at for clues.
shout out to Nic! Hi:-)!!! Hope you're back on your feet soon and get to "tear it up" on your home turf in short order.
ahab
I suppose some might disagree with this as with anything but according to the books certain support and resistance levels that are several years old are most certainly still valid, the Edwards and Magee book shows many examples that play out of 7 years or more, good to use the log scale when you chart long term like that.
fwiw-
I'm still using Adam Smith's "Wealth of Nations"-strictly for the charts though- lol
@Amen
The true "MASTERS" (not Blythe), will be played from April 7 -10th...
So at least THAT week... AMEN RA's corner needs to hold true to form...
For all that are interested... The CURRENT AMEN RA's CORNER rotisserie includes...
- The 11th (green), 12th (green), & 13th teebox of Augusta National... The TRUE "Amen Corner"
- The 17th at TPC Sawgrass (photo above)
- the 17th at St. Andrews (aka "The Road Hole")
- the 7th at Pebble Beach (soon to be known, the RADIOACTIVE WASTE hole... I'm sure that when Obama gets back from his samba dancing lessons in Rio (just "south" of the FEAR MONGERING neutron beam cloud atmospheric dispersion), he'll be avoiding rounds at Pebble... More likely, he'll be playing future rounds at 'Royal Melbourne' and practicing his 'On the Beach' re-inactment...
- The 13th at Whistling Straits (aka "Cliff Hanger")
you ever play a round there CV?
It's super strange to me that Obama is on vacation while we have entered another war. The way it's being handled is interesting to say the least.
the 'out in a few days' comment seems eerily similar to Mission Accomplished
The 18th at Harbour Town with the lighthouse in the background? The par 3 course at Jones Beach where my then boyfriend and I were forced reluctantly into a foursome with two burly guys who most certainly didn't want to play with us but I rose to the occasion and chipped directly into the hole while dozens of onlooking beachgoers peered over the fence dividing us from the parkinglot and cheered?
Interesting new post just went up at Evil Speculator -- chart w/ plots of average trade size...interesting way to view price action. It isn't password protected.
J-
do you play much Golf?
AAIP
For the record... CV's "golden score" on those holes is as follows: (I'm NOT talking "Tiger Woods golf here), I'm talking actual golfing...
MASTERS AMEN CORNER
Never had the priveledge of playing, But I have attended TWO masters... I consider it a sanctuary... I take off my shoes when I enter the place and walk barefoot... It's the most exquisite feeling (that grass) on the bottom of my foot that one could ever feel...
17th at TPC Sawgrass - aka "Island Green"
Par 3
I played it twice, and carded a "2" both times... It's a pitch & putt (with no wind & under no pressure)... With WIND & UNDER TOURNAMENT PRESSURE, I'm guessing I'd have been visiting the drop area...
17th at St. Andrews - aka "Road Hole"
Par 4
Never played St. Andrews, but the shot from the tee doesn't suit my eye... You basically have to hit a high blind power fade OVER a HOTEL to get into position... CV's "pressure shot" is a high arching draw... That would put me in a position left of the fairway and most likely then my second shot would end up in the ROAD HOLE BUNKER... I'm a good bunker player, so if I wasn't totally trapped, I'm sure I'd blast out and card a BOGEY, but I'd struggle to make pars there on a regular basis...
The 7th at Pebble Beach
Par 3
Played it numerous times... And thus have carded MANY "2's"... I've also carded 10's there when I dumped 4 straight balls into the Pacific Ocean trying to manufacture a choked down 4 iron into 50 mile an hour wind... This is the hole that Tom Kite made famous in the 1992 US Open...
Cv played in several California State Amateur Championships there... What "the public" doesn't understand about Pebble is that it has Poa Annua greens... The most frustrating grass on earth to putt on... They're too mesmerized by the scenery...
13th at Whistling Straits
Par 4
Played it only once... Parred it... Despite what the foto looks like, it's a "layup" par... But it FITS my shot type... The hole is called "Cliff Hanger" for a reason... Literally, off the right side there is a steep drop to lake Michigan... generally the wind blows left to right (towards the Lake)... Therefore, my "shot shape" (an arching draw, can hold the wind if I find a good aiming point (and the apex of the hill two mounds over from the towering oak in the background is solid target)... Most golf psychologists will tell you that HIGH EYE TARGETS are the best because your mind has the tendency to commit to them...
Weekend golfers might tell me I'm FOS on that, But CV took it to within 2 shots of qualifying for the US Amateur finals (after LEADING the first round)... So trust me, when the nerves get that high, you're looking for everything you can find to keep from falling down as you walk...
Again, you're looking at a "pitch & putt" if you can put your ball in the fairway (but this one isn't as easy as it looks on paper)... You're basically looking at a DOWNHILL/WIND HELPING PITCH... Those are hard to "stick", and besides, the grain of the grass is leaning towards Lake Michigan (so it's hard to stop your ball - not like DARTS)...
You end up having to be HAPPY with a 20 foot putt (make that 40 feet in my case)... Thankfully - I'm a good putter & so PAR is easy unless you're a total spazola or CHOKER...
I rarely CHOKE when money is on the line...
"It's super strange to me that Obama is on vacation while we have entered another war"
Yeah - Don't forget either that David Rockefeller "conveniently" landed in Chile just before the neutron beam started spewing...
Just saying...
MEH - no, I don't. I kept my mom company a lot, summers home from college we would go to the driving range almost every night after dinner for an hour and play together on the weekends, but having no natural athletic ability whatsoever I rapidly lost whatever small gains I'd made during that time.
Jennifer
I'd have to look into his theory some more. But I read a little further and stumbled upon this pic that had me LMAO: http://evilspeculator.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/1300_small.png
AR -- the guys who run that blog have very interesting senses of humor. But -- I love that split screen indicator thingy. Can't live without it.
Zerohedge has an interesting interview with CHS -- he says he thinks the market is about to roll over into a 1-2 year decline. (There are charts too!)
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/guest-post-ive-got-funny-feeling-about-stock-market
You know...
The thought just dawned on me now...
I've NEVER thought about this before... But when I casually mentioned this above... "Most golf psychologists will tell you that HIGH EYE TARGETS are the best because your mind has the tendency to commit to them..." This is TRUE...
Want a reference?... Dr. Robert (Bob) Rotella... You traders probably don't know much about him but he is very famous as a golf psychologist...
In any case, his STUDY went as deep as to TRAIN golfers on ideas of "MENTAL COMMITTMENTS" (basically - the subconscious POWER of muscle reflexology in committing itself to what the EYE saw)...
This is HUGE in golf... I can't begin to tell you all how or why... It all comes down to PRESSURE, the LOWEST COMMON DENOMINATOR, or as John Lennon might say "Whatever Gets You Through the Night - It's Alright"...
Basically - you have to TRUST YOUR FEELINGS... The "shot has to fit your eye"... At times, IT WILL... Other times, IT WON'T... When it DOESN'T you need to act with discipline (and try HARDER to look for powerful things that stand out)... When it DOES (fit your eye), you should "press your bets" and act on instinct...
I found that those lessons (from Bob Rotella), helped me to manage BETTER in some high pressure situations... And I'm TELLING you people... "Pressure" isn't trading stocks... It's trying to hole a 3 and a half footer on a bumpy green that fades a little right because the grass blades are 1/64th of an inch longer at 5:30 PM with 85% humidity than they were when you played your practice round at 6:45 AM, with morning dew on the ground, and the blade audience was towards the rising sun...
Anyway... Thinking about it now... Rotella's "psychology" probably would fit well in trading...
@CV -- have you played Pebble since they put in the new #5? How about your "golden" score on #8? If you make a 3 there, you really earned it. 14 is tougher than you would ordinarily think, but of course during the Open last year they had it set up really tough.
BTW, as a weekend golfer (not even), I think you are right about the "high eye" targets. I never heard anyone say that before, but I can recall that they tend to work better for me, now that you mention it.
- Whammer
Famous Bob Rotella quotes...
Hit the shot you know you can hit, not the one you think you should
This is why CV isn't "trading stocks" anymore... I KNOW I CAN HIT THE SHOT (that loads up on physical)... I don't trust anything else these days...
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/guest-post-ive-got-funny-feeling-about-stock-market
that's a good article..
wouldn't that, also, line up with the Wave-deal the McB has been squawking about?
J-
re: Golf, always found to be, at the min., a good excuse to go outside :)
ibid.
@Whammer
Here's... ALWAYS... a good way of looking at how a course PLAYS for someone (you have to have played many rounds there to make it applicable)...
CV's "golden score" at Pebble (the lowest official CARDED holes)...
#1 = 3 (birdie)
#2 = 4 (birdie [when par 5], but it's a par 4 in championship play)
#3 = (birdie)
#4 = (eagle)
#5 = (par) - have never played the NEW #5
#6 = (eagle)
#7 = (birdie)
#8 = (par)
#9 = (par)
BACK NINE
#10 = (par)
#11 = (par)
#12 = (par)
#13 = (par)
#14 = (par) - that's one tough ass par 5 to birdie
#15 = (par) easy driving - tough putt to figure out
#16 = (par) - ditto
#17 = (par)
#18 = birdie
So think about it... I've played the FRONT 9 at Pebble in 8 under par (golden score)... My BACK NINE (golden score) is minus 1... So when they make it a PAR 71... I've shot a 62...
But my BEST ROUND score was a 71 (then a 75)... My WORST score there was a 93 (in howling wind)...
I'd say overall... #9, #10, #11, & #17 give me the most problems...
#8 doesn't bother me so much... What's hard about it (which I think you alluded to, but didn't say OUTRIGHT, is the fact that there are ZERO HIGH EYE TARGETS off that tee box... I mean LITERALLY... you're forced to FRAME some down targets into your eye, then attach them to a passing cloud via some sextant trigonometry (NOT a big confidence builder)...
But you usually have the wind at your back there, so as long as you know your shot distances, you have more TRUST...
The HARDER part is actually "putting" that green...
I've made as many bogeys on that hole 3 putting as when I missed hitting the green in 2...
BY FAR the most "picturesque" hole at Pebble, IMO...
Oh... and also...
Perhaps a PERFECT understanding of Dr. Bob Rotella...
Author of...
"Golf is NOT a Game of Perfect"
My game improved 10 fold after reading that...
More golf (LIFE) logic...
Golf Life Lessons, the parallel between the game of golf and the game of life.
"Golf is the closest game to the game we call life. You get bad breaks from good shots; you get good breaks from bad shots - but you have to play the ball where it lies."
- Bobby Jones
One of the most fascinating things about golf is how it reflects the cycle of life. No matter what you shoot - the next day you have to go back to the first tee and begin all over again and make yourself into something.
- Peter Jacobsen
No-one will ever have golf under his thumb. No round ever will be so good it could not have been better. Perhaps this is why golf is the greatest of games. You are not playing a human adversary; you are playing a game. You are playing old man par.
- Bobby Jones
You swing your best when you have the fewest things to think about.
- Bobby Jones
It is nevertheless a game of considerable passion, either of the explosive type, or that which burns inwardly and sears the soul.
- Bobby Jones
A leading difficulty with the average player is that he totally misunderstands what is meant by concentration. He may think he is concentrating hard when he is merely worrying.
- Bobby Jones
I never learned anything from a match that I won.
- Bobby Jones
Golf is assuredly a mystifying game. It would seem that if a person has hit a golf ball correctly a thousand times, he should be able to duplicate the performance at will. But such is certainly not the case.
- Bobby Jones
Many shots are spoiled at the last instant by efforts to add a few more yards.
- Bobby Jones
The secret of golf is to turn three shots into two.
- Bobby Jones
The best exercise for golfers is golfing.- Bobby Jones
The moment the average golfer attempts to play from long grass or a bunker or from a difficult lie of any kind, he becomes a digger instead of a swinger.
- Bobby Jones
Golf is said to be a humbling game, but it is surprising how many people are either not aware of their weaknesses or else reckless of consequences.
- Bobby Jones
Rhythm and timing are the two things which we all must have, yet no one knows how to teach either.
- Bobby Jones
You might as well praise a man for not robbing a bank as to praise him for playing by the rules.
- Bobby Jones
One reason golf is such an exasperating game is that a thing we learned is so easily forgotten, and we find ourselves struggling year after year with faults we had discovered and corrected time and again.
- Bobby Jones
In order to win, you must play your best golf when you need it most, and play your sloppy stuff when you can afford it. I shall not attempt to explain how you achieve this happy timing.
- Bobby Jones
I get as much fun as the next man from whaling the ball as hard as I can and catching it squarely on the button. But from sad experience I learned not to try this in a round that meant anything.
- Bobby Jones
I always like to see a person stand up to a golf ball as though he were perfectly at home in its presence.
- Bobby Jones
The best exercise for golfers is golfing.
- Bobby Jones
I almost had a "hole in one" at the short Par 3 at Pebble Beach (Wind was behind me and the caddie said 'Hit it 65 yards' I hit 65.5 yards and it backed up right next to the hole). I ended up birdieing 2 of the Par 3's in real life. Had a "sandy save" at the #17. Choked at #18 and carded an 80.
It was the most joyous experience I've ever had on a golf course...walking Pebble Beach.
Unreal place.
Notice a headline on CNNSI that Tiger Woods has a "golf app" to help golfers with their swings...
bwahahahahahahahahah.
No thanks.
"I never learned anything from a match that I won.
- Bobby Jones"
Yep. Same goes for trading...and anything in life...
Good interview with David Stockman on Reason.com.
While 'long,' this is probably the most lucid interview I've ever seen.
He was Reagan's CBO chief, ex-Congressman and former businessman.
Given that background, his comments are even more telling.
http://reason.com/archives/2011/03/21/the-triumph-of-politics-over-e
I won't bet against anyone named Shaka Smart.
Go VCU.
@Andy T
"I never learned anything from a match that I won..."
One of the BEST (of many) Bobby Jones quotes... as well as... BY FAR the best golf logic... "You have to play the ball as it lies"...
---
I'm SERIOUS when I say this...
The MOST IMPORTANT thing I think I've ever learned in my life is the "story" of Bobby Jones in the 1925 US Open (where he basically called a penalty on himself - the NOBODY ELSE even knew about or could verify)...
http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/cheat/columns/story?columnist=harig_bob&id=2964423
After the day that I FIRST read that story, I said to myself... I WAN'T TO LIVE MY LIFE BY THAT STANDARD (even if it makes me a "fool" in the minds of others - and costs me dearly in the process)...
There are standards & behavior, & then there are STANDARDS & BEHAVIOR...
Every man has a choice as to which he might be inclined to align himself with...
cv.
Yes.
Indeed.
@Andy
I won't bet against anyone named Shaka Smart
Just as it would have been bad to bet against anyone named "Keith Smart"...
or "Maxwell Smart" (for that matter)...
I've always kinda been a fan of AMY SMART... too...
Amy Smart fotos:
http://www.mworld.us/photozone/show.asp?ID=62
http://www.tvpredictions.com/hotsmart121808.htm
http://fasterthantheworld.com/pop_culturista/amy-smart-smith-01.html
http://www.topsir.com/desk/class124/3873/bc4dfcfebf464951.htm
http://mankenler.ofpuf.org/img-amy-smart-2-362.htm
(kind of a "poor man's" UMA THURMAN - I like that)...
KAREN has her WAY beat in the foot department though...
http://www.celebritybarefeet.com/amy-smart.html
new charts & videos in the thread if anyone is interested
APPARENTLY NOT...
Happy trading!
@CV -- thanks for that recap of Pebble. You must have holed out for eagle on #4? That would be tough to drive.
Again, you are right about #8 -- the tee shot there is tough, because you don't know where to hit it, or how far for that matter. The second shot is, IMO, dang tough, and you are right about the putting there. The last time I played it I made a 6 -- 2 in the bunker left, 2 to get out, two putts..... ;-) I am about 20 strokes/round worse than you, however, so I was proud of that 6.....
#17 isn't that hard if they have the "celebrity" pin placement -- front right. If it is back left, that is a whole different story. For me, the only sensible play is to hit it front right and hope like heck to 2-putt.
Bob Rotella makes a lot of sense. I have never been a good player, but once I started to understand my limitations and to accept the fact that I would hit a lot of bad shots, it really helped me to stop making a bad situation worse.
- Whammer
@Whammer
"You must have holed out for eagle on #4?"
It depends on how "technical" you want to cut it...
I actually have TWO eagles at #4...
Neither I actually drove the green (but PRETTY CLOSE)...
- One, I "chipped in" (on a left back pin placement) - about 30 yds. worth of shot - PLUS, you have to understand tat green and how it maneuvers... I was "chipping with a 9-iron"...
Aside from Bob Rotella, the OTHER guy I learned (probably MORE) in golf was from DAVE PELZ...
The OTHER TIME I eagled it was from the front fringe... A "front" pin position (really only about a 15 footer - thru about only 6 inches of light fring which didn't have much effect on the putt whatsoever)...
I just rammed it into the back of the jar (pin removed)...
It's AMAZING how the human mind REMEMBERS golf shots...
Thanks for helping me remember some FOND memories in my life...
CV
@Whammer
Bob Rotella could "easily" help as many TRADERS as GOLFERS (IMO)...
Also... WHAMMER
I gotta also say... CV <3's this movie... Where YOU play a cameo...
I'm pretty sure Roy Hobbs would struggle to strike you out though :-)...
..oh sorry.. the MOVIE CLIP... (no wonder I suck at TRADING)...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9_q9TKrZyQQ
Detailz...bitchez!
@CV -- Naw, Roy Hobbs was a badass!
2 Eagles on #4 -- that is impressive. It takes a pretty big thump to get up close to that green.
- Whammer
@Whammer
Again... It was just "one of those things"...
Hole #4 (at Pebble ) "fits my EYE" (driving wise)...
Usually a gentle breeze blowing from right to left (off the ocean)...
Not much to it... The WORST I ever played that hole (& carded a "6"), was when I decided to PLAY IT SAFE by hitting a "butterknife" (2-iron) off the tee...
Yeah - right... Had a 140+ yard shot (in a tricky wind) coming in... Dumped it into the "left" bunker coming in (which, of course, means a downsloping bunker shot)...
3 putt city bitchez!
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