CSCO (weekly info)new low 17.12
trend=down
low= 17.12
rev= 18.64; mid= 17.88
Doesn't look like Cisco has fixed whatever problems they are having. It's back below the 23.6% retrace of GFC. Also is making a new monthly low. The weekly 3LB range is small so the chances of a reversal increases. Plus the weekly chart is forming a bullish harami. The monthly seems to be saying it's too early for a reversal.
3 month vs Overnight LiborUpdate: Spread continues to increase. Everyone knows the overnight rate should be rising. The 3 month should be rising along with it. Spread was 0.051 on 1/3/11 and is now 0.107 on 3/22/11. That's not good.
PSI (weekly info)-no change (above mid)
trend=up
high= 7765.00
rev= 6727.00; mid= 7246.00
Portugal seems to be holding up. That may change after the austerity vote.
You'll probably be hearing this playing at the ECB after Portugals austerity vote...
153 comments:
Eurozone bonds face boycott by investors
FT 03/23/2011 05:01 AM
http://prudentbear.com/index.php?Itemid=57&option=com_content&view=frontpage
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/03/23/us-delta-idUSTRE72L3HG20110323?feedType=RSS&feedName=businessNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+reuters%2FbusinessNews+%28News+%2F+US+%2F+Business+News%29
U.S. airlines cut capacity to battle fuel costs
...Well, I suppose not being able to get a last-minute flight was never that important...
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-22/allies-prepare-to-attack-qaddafi-s-ground-forces-debate-command-structure.html
Allies Target Qaddafi Ground Forces, Debate Command Structure
...I see your No Fly Zone, and raise you. Silly rabbit, you knew where this was going...
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-23/banks-bring-jobs-back-to-london-as-finance-pays-most-tax-in-u-k-s-economy.html
Banks Bring Jobs to London as Finance Pays Most Tax in U.K.
..Big Hat AND Cattle...
good morning, been waiting for you.. if the $compq goes up, i imagine CSCO will to.. THE ONE TRADE.
QCOM, JJC, XLF trade as one, also.. try an overlay chart of that.
Morning Karen,
Today is OR day so I will miss the opening. I will have to tell you guys later what my brother fell into...
New home sales...predicted is 290k...I'll check it later.
..out of here..
Nicola
$CSCO http://chart.ly/px5hw9n Bullish gartley 78.6fib at 16.63, 2005 low 16.83, AB=CD 16.68, I am getting ready to buy
Fed tells Bank of America to rein in dividend plan
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/03/23/us-bankofamerica-idUSTRE72M2S520110323
$copper pulling a fast one.. chart didn't look bullish to me..
k-
is it early, enough, for you, out there?
still -3, yes?
btw, have you been keeping up on your "Mission Critical Communications"?
AAIP
Mark.. it is nearly 5 AM now.. but I have been up since before 4.. i is pitch black and cold but i just had my first sip of coffee : )
Via: New York Times:
If anyone wonders whether the Chinese government has tightened its grip on electronic communications since protests began engulfing the Arab world, Shakespeare may prove instructive.
A Beijing entrepreneur, discussing restaurant choices with his fiancée over their cellphones last week, quoted Queen Gertrude’s response to Hamlet: “The lady doth protest too much, methinks.” The second time he said the word “protest,” her phone cut off.
He spoke English, but another caller, repeating the same phrase on Monday in Chinese over a different phone, was also cut off in midsentence.
A host of evidence over the past several weeks shows that Chinese authorities are more determined than ever to police cellphone calls, electronic messages, e-mail and access to the Internet in order to smother any hint of antigovernment sentiment. In the cat-and-mouse game that characterizes electronic communications here, analysts suggest that the cat is getting bigger, especially since revolts began to ricochet through the Middle East and North Africa, and homegrown efforts to organize protests in China began to circulate on the Internet about a month ago.
“The hard-liners have won the field, and now we are seeing exactly how they want to run the place,” said Russell Leigh Moses, a Beijing analyst of China’s leadership. “I think the gloves are coming off.”
http://cryptogon.com/?p=21393
k-
-3, 3 hours behind..
http://redactednews.blogspot.com/2011/03/bravo-angela-germany-pulls-out-of-nato.html
hearing BAC down 2%.. that will probably mean a break of the triangle finally..
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2011/03/23/524516/etfs-are-proving-not-so-tradeable-during-crises/
http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2011/03/23/how-the-feds-dividend-daze-could-backfire/
"You might also raise an eyebrow at the No. 2 FDIC borrower, General Electric (GE). It wasn't included in the latest Fed stress test but has raised its dividend 40% over the past year and now pays out $6 billion annually."
Nicola
$BAC http://chart.ly/s7vxmrp Break out to the upside targets 18 (weekly pivot price Dec08) Double-bagger stock
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Caterpillar Financial, the financing arm of Caterpillar Inc. (CAT), is preparing to sell $1 billion of three- and five-year bonds Wednesday, according to a person familiar with the sale.
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2011/03/18/519736/yen-volatility-is-too-much-for-one-bank/
Remember the JPY dive? Barcap.
Federal regulators are blaming Wall Street's biggest firms for the collapse of five institutions at the heart of the nation's credit-union industry and are seeking to recoup tens of billions of dollars in losses on securities that doomed the five.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703410604576217023625225138.html
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2011/03/23/524081/egypt-reopens-for-business/
Egypt Reopens For Business
The Egyptian stock exchange has reopened for business on Wednesday morning but not without a hiccup or two.
Seconds after trading commenced the circuit breakers kicked in and the exchange was forced to suspend business.
I see the USDJPY got down to 80.67 in the after hours. It's back up to 80.95 now. BoJ is not too pleased.
http://247wallst.com/2011/03/21/shipping-companies-and-the-japan-effect-drys-dsx-gnk-amkbf-dac-ssw-fro-nat-tk-tgp-glng-sea/
As Japan recovers from the devastating earthquake and its aftermath, the country will depend heavily on importing raw materials into the country and exporting finished goods. There are a number of publicly traded shipping companies that could see a bump in revenues as transport to and from Japan picks up.
EGPT also down 5.71%. Guess all of the money flowing into the ETF was for naught.
Radio saying that parents in Tokyo are advised not to give infants tap water -- twice the recommended amt of radioactive iodine.
Irish 10 Year Bonds Take Out Stops, Yield Surges Past 10% For First Time In History http://bit.ly/ia0wdL
J-
http://cryptogon.com/?p=21396
TOKYO TAP WATER TESTS 2.5 TIMES ABOVE RADIOACTIVE LIMITS FOR INFANTS
March 23rd, 2011
Via: Globe and Mail:
Tap water in Tokyo tested two times above the limits for radioactive iodine considered safe for infants, officials said Wednesday amid burgeoning concerns about food safety in the wake of an earthquake and tsunami that crippled a nuclear power plant.
Levels of radioactive iodine in tap water at a water treatment centre in downtown Tokyo that supplies much of the city’s tap water contained 210 becquerels per litre of iodine-131, officials from the Tokyo Water Bureau said at a news conference.
That amount is more than twice the recommended limit of 100 becquerels per litre for infants, the most vulnerable segment of the population. Babies in Tokyo should not be fed tap water although the level is not an immediate health risk for adults, officials said...
AAIP
karen
Ireland should have chosen to follow Iceland...
http://tinyurl.com/6z8cwc4
Fed’s Fisher Sees ‘Extraordinary Speculative Activity’ in U.S.
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Richard W. Fisher said he sees “extraordinary speculative activity” in the U.S. after the central bank pumped record amounts of stimulus into the economy.
“There is an enormous amount of liquidity sloshing around,” the regional bank chief, who votes on monetary policy this year, said in a speech today in Berlin. “There is abundant liquidity in the machine we know as the United States economy.”
Fisher reiterated his view that no further monetary stimulus will be needed after the Fed finishes its planned $600 billion of Treasury purchases through June. The 62-year-old bank president has criticized the plan, which policy makers voted to keep in place after their March 15 meeting in Washington.
Yada yada yada. Prove it Fisher. There are still no dissenting votes at the FOMC meetings.
New home sales dive 16.9%. Came in at 250k vs exp 290k.
New home sales are...remember this term?
Cliff diving...
there were more data showing insties in distribution again yesterday, it was a perfect execution again, two straight days of large gaps up within the first 30 minutes of cash trading and then a drift down the entire trading day
sorry, breakaway gaps don't do that....the break....away.
wave e is on deck....
and that triangle on BAC is under serious pressure now....
gold just popped..
Karen,
You should ride the silver train
lol.
Even if there is a decent correction I don't think those chose to take delivery on silver are going to budge. Silver expiration is Monday. Sorry Blythe.
This week IS the apex on my BAC chart. We are seeing which side is dominant right now.
If all of a sudden the bottom falls out from under the EURUSD you'll know Portugals vote decision.
http://www.stocktiming.com/Wednesday-DailyMarketUpdate.htm
9 new lows yesterday -- making the case that this is not bearish
Crude Oil 105.63 +0.66 +0.63
Natural Gas 4.355 +0.024 +0.55
Corn 686.75 +0.25 +0.04
Soybeans 1365.5 +2.5 +0.18
30yr Bond 122.12500 +0.65625 +0.54
10yr Note 120.046875 -0.156250 -0.13
NY Gold 1436.0 +8.4 +0.59
NY Silver 36.585 +0.316 +0.87
http://www.ino.com/
Extreme Futures
Symbol Last Change %
COPPER (E-MIN 4.472 +0.150 +3.47
COPPER Jul 4.4350 +0.1055 +2.44
E-MICRO S&P 5517.5 +122.0 +2.25
DOMESTIC HOT- 750 -20 -2.60
NIKKEI 225 9320 -225 -2.36
NIKKEI 225 9350 -220 -2.35
I wish Nic was here so I could discuss that BAC chart with her, I'd bring up the following
the bottom line is not horizontal and so you could argue a symmetrical triangle, really though it leans more toward a descending (see bearish continuation) triangle due to the slope of the top line and where the pattern falls in the larger pattern since last spring. Descending triangles can break up, but more often than not they are continuation patterns.
with today's drop someone could now argue that it's a bull flag I suppose.... after the W bottom, however, often when flags show up somewhere like there after the big down draft from $18 its a fake out, it ran into the resistance created by that intial move down from $18's as well and so you have to wonder how much supply keeps coming to the market because it appears many people bought BAC at it's lows last summer,
there are some bullish aspects of the chart though I'm not sure they outweigh the bearish especially given general market conditions, I wouldn't trade the triangle until it broke out, it'd be a higher probability trade then with plenty of upside.
also considering a trading strategy there, throwbacks:
if it's a descending that breaks up Volume does not need to rise in the breakout however descending triangles that break up should show rising volume during the formation of the triangle and that's not really showing up, if it plays out anyway, there is a throwback to go long 29% of the time when descendings break up.
if it's a symmetrical that breaks up then increasing volume is desirable on the breakout and it will throwback 51% of the time
I think those are decent reasons to wait for the breakout to give yourself a better chance at
WINNING.....duh!
BAC broke the Jan low.. not sure how that can be interpreted as bullish..
it adds evidence Karen that it is a continuation triangle, not a reversal
Having troublem making a lower low on SPY here.
Hello boys and girls. Sorry I havent been around much. I really havent had the energy to do everything I used to do and Im moving back to UK this weekend.
Ben I agree 100% about BAC and I would not touch it unless it broke out ... I do think that if you compare the 6 week rally off the December lows to the recent price action then you have to lean to more upside.
Either way BAC is a horror
I did miss you all :)
ben.. sent you a hasty bac chart..
Nic!
woo hoo!
how are you?
thanks for your thoughts, Karen is doing a good job keeping us up to date on many of your charts, always appreciate your perspective.
that's a good point on the move in December up...at first glance it appears larger and faster than any move in the wave that preceded it, but I haven't looked at all the prices that closely, just at first glance it appears that way. it's worth keeping an eye on, if we break up out of that triangle it's got a lot of upside.
hope you are good.
Nic
Hola Nic. Hope you're feeling better.
i know what is clouding my objectivity on BAC -- fundamentals! shame on me! i need to focus on TA (Tepper Analysis) only.
look at FAZ on a 30 min 5 day.. a potential rev h&s setting up there.
Viva Nicola!
Hello
Not better yet, looking forward to going home. Thanks for the welcome
Ben -- you pointed out CRZO the other day...the bottom fell out in the last 10 min.
Didn't someone point out NOG here?
http://brontecapital.blogspot.com/
Two posts, both with links to street sweeper.
Nic.. I hope you will see better days ahead! and certainly your mother must be thrilled.. no more moose!
Just looked at the chart, should have shorted yesterday...
Jennifer,
re: CRZO
Yeah, I've had it on my screen ever since....that chart is pretty wild isn't it?
Nic,
all the best to you, I hope this is the year your health gets back to normal.
look at crzo on a 30 min 5 day chart.. what a head!
That is some good head.
BBC Global News
Gaddafi's air force 'is defeated' http://bbc.in/hy69hc
nic -
you have been missed. sorry you have not gotten the upper hand on it yet. rooting for you
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704050204576218270988958288.html?ru=MKTW&mod=MKTW
Fed rejects BoA plan to raise dividend.
you have to wonder how bad things really are at BAC right?
After all, the Fed has behind the ball on pretty much every single issue since this all started, all the silly stress tests, etc. telling us banks were ok and well capitalized.
what could possibly be going on at BAC that causes the Fed to deny them now....??
Bespoke
New home sales even worse than they look. http://bit.ly/e2YA8V
http://economico.sapo.pt/noticias/acompanhe-aqui-em-directo-o-debate-no-parlamento_114126.html
Anyone speak Portuguese?
The Fed knows where the bones are buried (it helped bury them). Maybe the Fed is using mark-to-market to value BAC assets and is calling BS on them for trying to pay dividends.
bob
Try this: translate.google.com "economico.sapo.pt">
Video - March 15, 2011
Charlotte real estate agent Leigh Brown explains that after purchasing a BofA short sale, a North Carolina family was forced to hire private security guards to protect the home from Bank Of America.
Brian Moynihan wouldn't want it any other way.
http://dailybail.com/home/if-youre-buying-a-bank-of-america-short-sale-hire-security-g.html
I just wanted to hear the trash talking, live.
bob
This isn't sounding good for Portugal: Socrates Leaves Parliament
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/japan-nuclear-agency-radiation-level-fukushima-reactor-no-2-its-highest-level-recorded-so-fa
that situation in Japan is seriously pooched..
Guessing on this, not betting...
Eur up after vote, seems heavily short.
HONOLULU (Reuters) – A wildfire touched off by the eruption of the Kilauea volcano on Hawaii’s Big Island has spread and burned some 2,000 acres of national park land, threatening a fragile, protected rain forest, authorities said on Wednesday.
http://stockmarketnews.resumit.com/united-states-stockmarket-news/hawaii-wildfire-spreads-nears-protected-rainforest/
my faz 30 min rev h&s is still in play.. : )
Can't a case be made that no dividend for BAC is good for the equity? More RE.
This is the same firm that as the boat was sinking in 2008 announced a div above its eps.
Ouch...that hurt. And, on that note, I'm out for the day. Good luck!
bob
Here you go: http://www.zerohedge.com/article/watch-portuguese-parliamentry-session-live
now that looks like a short term bull flag
zing!
Jennifer
WWWTTTTFFFF just happened?
that was insanity..
i don't know but at least one person used it to go short: Douglas Kass
back shorting iwm at 80.85 spy at 129.20 and qqq at 55.50 $$
2 minutes ago
BAC where we started
Here we go 'round again
Day after day, I get up and I say
Give me a dividend again.
BAC being treated like a horse who has outlived its usefulness.
Is that a double top I see on the 5 min SPX chart? Two separate shooting stars formed as it tested the opening gap down.
Well, since we live on animal Farm, I suppose BAC is Boxer then
I will lie harder.....
Elizabeth Taylor died...
Whoa! Silver shooting up. Almost getting out of control.
@Ben
Did you just frost a metaphor with double entendre sprinkles?
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-23/banks-bring-jobs-back-to-london-as-finance-pays-most-tax-in-u-k-s-economy.html
It's not a "tax". It's a franchise fee from the fiat dealer back to the fiat manufacturer.
...from "money birth" to "money heaven".
ben
BAC's general response to all problems.
Hmmm interesting. The quarter hour squeeze is an hour early.
Louise Yamada: S&P 500 Groping for Support, New Leaders Emerging http://yhoo.it/dJceEE
AR
Thanks for the link. I've been popping in every once in while, doesn't look like voting, some things are international.
One plus for the US- Better looking background, generally.
Shit. This is the first time in a few weeks that they've closed an opening gap down on the same day.
The tide is on the long side today...
~1290 on the S&P
looks a ~50% re-trace of the decline from ~1330 to ~1250..
http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=ES
?
AAIP
re: S&P
are we getting over ~1300?
ibid.
Silver bitchez.
Love it.
Busting out...will be selling a little more into this rush.
@Mel,
I might have done just that.....
Dunno the ES, but for the YM, I'm seeing 12045... and that doesnt change anything regarding the downtrend.
I'm out of the silver calls as of about 35 minutes ago as well as the small put hedge against it, worked out ok.
might re-explore in the not too distant future
AT,
you should sell it to cv--..
AAIP
Tried shorting once earlier, but after that nice 49 point ramp job, flipped my switch.
Had to question why it was so hard for me to make money past few days.
It shouldnt be.
Liz Taylor back in the day
she was hot stuff....
http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=ES&p=h1
this Chart, an 'hourly, on the ES, looks wack..
~~
E. Taylor was, definitely, good looking..
if only E. Warren was as such, someone might, actually, pay attention to her..
ibid.
need to bail, y'all be good, if not better~
I'll try to catch up later..
AAIP
I'll put myself out there and say we won't close above 1,300 this week
perhaps I'll be proven wrong before 4!
Karen,
thanks for all the LY videos, I have a different near term view than her but have a great deal of respect for her calls. She's a true tech.
Love how crazy Mr. Clean intro'd that video:
"stock charts are the dirty pictures of wall street, some traders admit to using them, other traders are lying about not using them"
Nod if you can understand me......classic.
But whatever price happens to line up with Friday morning is going to be the one to sell...
Friday, 3/25 should be a high, if 2/18 was a top.
I believe it was... the tape will decide.
btw, the July calls on NLY that we were talking about a week or so ago at $18 have now more than doubled to .27, believe they were at .11 when we brought them up....$18 is a hard range for this stock and it doesn't reveal in the charts that it's right now breaking out of the year long sideways consolidation....getting closer to me selling those calls iow....
I liked this LY video interview better.. Maria B ruins everything for me..
wow, ~3 inches of Snow, dude calls to Cancel appointment, blames it 'on the Snow' ..
what an Idiot, should have made up a better Story ..
too bad, for him, there are plenty of other Suppliers..
ibid.
@ AAIP
C'mon Mon...
McB,
re:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/op?s=NLY&k=18.00
why do you like the Jul18 to Fade? why not Fade the 'Front Months'?
as one can see, the Apr + May > July, and that leaves out June..
AAIP
I've had people cancel meetings because it *might rain
for someone that grew up outside of Erie Pa, that always cracks me up....
Bespoke
Checking up on Bill Miller vs S&P 500. $LMVTX http://bit.ly/i4CLlP
I-Bro,
nice Lion~
yes, true Story, hard to imagine..
Gout/ 'Crabs'/ even 'priapism', would have 'made more Sense'/given the dude some ~leeway..
ibid.
AAIP,
was just pointing out those because I'm thought those were the one's we were talking about before,....that particular month
I think all the 18's can be sold at the right time as long as that chart continues to look as it does.
oops.. meant to include this tweet as well: LeggMason's Bill Miller tells #CNBC U.S. equities are 20% undervalued. He is on #StreetSigns live until 3pm ET.
McB,
what was worse, is that the dude, even, called Late..
truly FUBAR..
AAIP
what is it that people don't get about "sometimes, 25c can be worth a million dollars" ?
CrackieMac,
we were squawking the 'July' NLY calls, before..
ibid.
I think that Bill Miller S&P comparison blows
for starters, it doesn't appear at quick glance that any of those charts account for the change in NAV of the fund due to dividends or cap gains that have been paid out....among other things
love those top holdings though....guess financials and .....financials are on the menu
yield curve!
"what is it that people don't get about "sometimes, 25c can be worth a million dollars"
oh...I think people, some people anyway, might get that, it's just that......most then wonder
but what if there was 25c that could be worth
a trillion......
well,.....1300 approacheth again.
even tho i know copper ran up to day because it could.. i want a reason, laughing.. and i did not think the chart looked bullish yesterday..
euro winding down again.. dollar seems to be getting a bit of the benefit. uup at 21.76 now..
copper.. maybe more institutions needed to exit FCX...
but these people think the "Japan Recovery" is the catalyst.. SlipkaTrading
US$ up as metals surge on future Japanese recovery efforts. Stocks off lows to trade green. Grains & most softs down. Oil near $105.76
Headling is almost as goofy as something from Marketwatch.
somehow this will help BAC earnings under FASB..
Diana Olick
Bank of America will identify&demolish 100 low-value, abandoned/vacant properties in Detroit. BofA incurs costs&donates props back to city
Yeah... you dont wanna be on the wrong side of these moves today...
Just ride em.
That one just took the I to the finish line... its a sunny day, and I gots salmon to catch.
Later Traders
it is not even the last hour yet..
series of flags today,that's three
suppose we should go up and close the 1304 gap?
Watch YM turn at 12045 on a dime...
this market is whack! LOL
http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=YM&p=m5
looks like it did..
Happy Hooking, I-Bro~
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=CME_PB.Q11
that looks like 'Japan effect'..
ibid.
another one???
Crack is Whack
1304.12-1301.19 last gap to be closed. Will it happen?
Blythe has 2 days to get silver under control. Or it's a meeting with Jamie in the JPM dungeon.
Arrrgh....what happened? geez, I go away for 3 hours and the world turns upside down?
that certainly won't be the only attempt to break 1304....seems like the bulls have enough juice
internals are pretty crappy though
JJC up even more than slv today..
I'm going to lose wi-fi for the close.. SDG&E putting in new smart meter system.
All was not lost...got home in time to short right at 1300 -- scared to hold overnight though.
Interesting...pushed back down beneath that trendline on the daily for the close.
okay.. i'm back.. quick installation! wow.
New blog post: Portugal Parliament rejects austerity plan http://www.forexlive.com/175366/all/portugal-parliament-rejects-austerity-plan
gld had discounted the euro drop?
Jennifer
Don't be scurrreedd! With Portugal failing to vote in austerity the government will be dissolved and a new one elected. That will put additional pressure on Spain to accept a bailout. Everything continues to accelerate into nothingness.
AR -- dude, that's all priced in. Sky's the limit.
euro stabilized.. nevermind.. DGDF
yard work calls.. back tonight, thanks all.
Funny how Portugal made their announcement one minute after market close. Can't have a massive sell off with two minutes left until the close.
ROR
http://www.amazon.com/Death-Supermarket-Fattening-Dumbing-Poisoning/dp/1608321150/ref=ntt_at_ep_dpt_4
new thread
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