Weekend Edition - Week 6 NFL & NCAA Picks

CV's PICKS - 2010 YTD Totals

2010 NCAA Picks: 19-9-2
2010 NCAA (unit picks differential): +9
NCAA 2010 Wager Total: (+$830)

NFL Picks: 38-33-3
NFL (unit picks differential): +14
NFL 2010 Wager Total: (+$1,160)


ucf at MARSHALL (+5) - 1 unit (midweek game)
UCF 35 - Marshall 14 - Incorrect (-$110)
Ohio State at WISCONSIN (+4) - 1 unit
Wisconsin 31 - Ohio State 18 - Correct (+100)
Mississippi State at FLORIDA (-8) - 1 unit
Mississippi State 10 - Florida 7 - Incorrect (-110)

Additional games of note (no "unit" plays) - results" Green = correct/Red = incorrect: CV would favor: Kentucky, Ole Miss, Notre Dame, TCU

The big matchups of the week will be Auburn-Alabama & #1Ohio State-Wisconsin... I'm going to go with a play on Wisconsin, home dog "under the lights" at Camp Randall Stadium... This is the REAL test to see if this team & Terelle pryor are for real... Keep in mind that the preliminary BCS standings get releases on Sunday night... That means that I'm tossing away my usual search for "look ahead", or "look behind" spots (otherwise known as TRAP GAMES)... It means that I actually expect a lot of teams who are positioned in the Top 15 in the coaches & sportswriters polls to come through with "covers" on the line... As an example, I'd considered a play on TEXAS (to upset Nebraska), but with Nebraska on the heels of TCU & Boise State, and remembering the fact that Nebraska still feels "cheated" from the game with Texas last year (where they "outplayed" them, but ended losing a chance to go to the Rose Bowl on a last second FG)... Well, I'd actually be careful fading Nebraska here... They might be on a mission...

Week 7 NCAA Picks: 5-2-0
Week 7 unit pick differential: -1
Week 7 wager total: $-120


BYE WEEK: (Buffalo, Cincinnati, Arizona, Carolina)
I'll have these picks up by Sunday (with the game write-ups)... I'm looking to do multi-unit plays on Bears, Steelers, Texans, & Jaguars...
Injury Report: Cutler (BEARS/concussion) - Medically cleared and will play; Rogers (PACKERS/concussion) - Practiced Thursday, likely to start, but not confirmed; Addai (COLTS) Expected to start; Brown (COLTS) likely out; Hillis (BROWNS) Missed practice time, but likely to start; McFadden (RAIDERS) game time decision; Moreno (BRONCOS) Practiced, but limited; Thomas (SAINTS) out; Bryant (COWBOYS) didn't practice, likely out; Johnson (LIONS) Practiced Friday, but slightly limited, should play; Jones (TEXANS) likely to play; Finley (PACKERS) out, maybe out for season.

Seattle Seahawks at Chicago Bears (1:00 EST)
Line: Bears by 6
 CV likes: BEARS for (3 units)
Miami Dolphins at Green Bay Packers (1:00 EST)
Line: Packers by 3
CV likes: PACKERS for (0 units)
San Diego Chargers at St. Louis Rams (1:00 EST)
Line: Chargers by 8.5
CV likes: RAMS for (0 units)
Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots (1:00 EST)
Line: Patriots by 2.5
CV likes RAVENS for (1 unit)

New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Bucs (1:00 EST)
Line: Saints by 4
CV likes SAINTS for (0 units)

Detroit Lions at New York Football Giants (1:00 EST)
Line: Giants by 10
CV likes GIANTS for (2 units)

Atlanta Falcons at Philadelphia Eagles (1:00 EST)
Line: Eagles by 2.5
CV likes EAGLES for (1 unit)

Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers (1:00 EST)
Line: Steelers by 13.5
CV likes STEELERS for (3 units)

Kansas City Chiefs at Houston Texans (1:00 EST)
Line: Texans by 4.5
CV likes TEXANS for (5 units)


Oakland Raiders at San Francisco 49ers (4:05 EST)
Line: 49ers by 6.5
CV likes 49ERS for (1 unit)
New York Jets at Denver Broncos (4:05 EST)
Line: Jets by 3
CV likes JETS for (0 units)
Dallas Cowboys at Minnesota Vikings (4:15 EST)
Line: Vikings by 1.5
CV likes COWBOYS for (0 units)


Indianapolis Colts at Washington Redskins (8:20 EST)
Line: Colts by 3
CV likes COLTS for (0 units)


Tennessee Flaming Thumbtacks at Jacksonville Jaguars (8:35 EST)
Line: Thumbtacks by 3
CV likes JAGUARS for (4 units)


ben22 said...

Money Flow:


looking for a red monday...

insiders and CAT:


BuffaloT said...

Got FL for 7 and 7.5 earlier in the week. It is the only game left for me also to hit my 3 game teaser so I need only -1.5 from them in that one. Can't get a feel for the Ohio St. game. Taking Texas A&M all day on Missouri around 3.5. I like Cal to beat USC and you are getting 2.5. Still playing the Texas spread over Nebraska,can't get the money line today from my sportsbook. Also like the Phillies tonight and in a garbage game this morning Memphis getting 15 against Southern Miss in an 11 am cst kickoff.

karen said...

good morning!! ben, i hope this wont annoy you, but i agreed wholly with this Caroline Baum article.. Jim Sinclair sent it out:


"If the Fed’s goal was to make investors move out the risk curve, it succeeded. An alternate interpretation: Zero-percent interest rates are causing a misallocation of capital, a nice way of saying, “asset bubbles.”"

karen said...

Thanks for those links, Ben.. another good one: Abelson this weekend..


BR has a post about this.. and the first commenter points out that BAC will cover $20 mill of Mozillo's wrist slap..

I'm enjoying the recent MSM depictions of the Emperor without clothes.. maybe the pendulum finally swings back.

karen said...

Wow.. really liked McHappy's music link from last thread!


my son sent me this Jimmy Hendrix spoof: (Kid Cudi and Kanye)


ben22 said...


re: Baum,....I have no problem with her making the statement, she's just apeing the same thing everyone else has already said a million times, of course, her timeline of how it went down is wrong right?,...I think the fed reacted to investors, not the other way around, seems pretty obvious to me.

and besides, nobody is or was simply moving out the risk curve as a reaction to the Fed, at least nobody with big money, what they are doing is getting positioned IN FRONT of fed actions and selling into the actual event.

by this same logic though, I guess she also thinks in reaction to the Fed, people will start buying products en masse again very shortly (buying what?....everything) Bernanke stated in his speech that this was the intent as consumers would "anticipate" higher prices. Stay tuned, I'll be taking the other side of this assumption.

Also, I'm a bit hard pressed to scream asset bubble when after unprecedented liquidity the only market making new highs is gold.....

some might call it "lag time" I suppose.

ben22 said...


check this out:



ben22 said...

I caught berkowitz in a contradiction similar to that one on this very blog about 7 months ago and posted it here, don't feel like searching for it, he had this big long quote about how his process was to find companies and then "kill them" find all the ways they could go under, and if they met this and his value tests then they were a buy. At the time I questioned whether or not he could have possibly felt that there were no way to kill the banks he was holding, BAC, C, etc.

I think more than ever using the phrase total conviction with regards to the Fed applies today. This guy has a very good track record, if his lifetime process has been deep value and going through a task of "killing a company" before knowing it was ok to buy it, his conviction in the Fed is the only thing that explains those positions. Come on, I'm no pro analyst and I could tell you 10 ways to kill those banks....it's really that easy.

BuffaloT said...

Berkowitz is a smart dude, but he and really anybody who has been playing the bank reflation trade has pissed me off the last 18 months or so. It's like being a pimp. Yeah I could bankroll a bunch of whores and get a bunch of meth and crack, but could I sleep at night? Am I making the world better? No. So be the bigger man and step aside. But I do like St. Joe and think Einhorn will lose this longterm.

mcHAPPY said...

Glad you enjoyed, Karen. They've got some other good stuff as well.

karen said...

Ben, LOL on the dealbreaker berkowitz post.. also, great comments on the Baum ariticle.. thank you! (bonds prices are nearing all time highs and the dollar all time lows) but your points are well taken..

McHappy.. I will definitely listen further : )

mcHAPPY said...

No real estate bubble in Canada. THat is sarcasm.

ben22 said...


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