TRADERS ANONYMOUS: Morning Audibles 10.12.10

Morning Audibles 10.12.10

I was awake at about 4AM this morning and the futures were all the way down at 1152... I'd been waiting to use this song, if and when the market EVER went down (so it's basically been burning a hole in my computer hard drive)... I was starting to think we'd be on Windows 2025, or Mac OS 21 by the time it was ever needed...

Of course, now it's 9AM, and the stick saving algos, I see, have been hard at work the past 5 hours to assure you hard working ~~Democrats~~, ~~Capitalists~~, ~~Obama Supporters~~, ~~Americans~~, morons out there who pour every last cent of your ~~hard earned~~, ~~stolen~~, ~~saved from not paying your mortgages~~ money into risk assets (because you'd rather make money than be right)...

When are those elections? And who is this guy, and when is his "bitch" coming back?

258 comments:

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karen said...: good morning! you took the words right out of my mouth.. overnight lows as follows:

dow 10877
spx 1151.75
nas 2007.50; October 12, 2010 at 9:29 AM
karen said...: http://mrtopstep.com/2010/10/12/equities-report-1012/; October 12, 2010 at 9:33 AM
CV said...: EARNINGS REPORTING TODAY

CSX - after bell
INTC
POSCO; October 12, 2010 at 9:35 AM
McFearless said...: retail interest in stocks continues to accelerate, five e-mails this morning on stock purchase inquiry.

Meanwhile, commercial traders have reduced exposure to S&P for 6 straight weeks; October 12, 2010 at 9:35 AM
McFearless said...: I could have gotten long some vix calls yesterday but I didn't.; October 12, 2010 at 9:37 AM
CV said...: EARNINGS TOMORROW

JPM

Thursday

GOOG; October 12, 2010 at 9:38 AM
CV said...: Gonna have to consult back to Andy's charts if 1158 gets taken out...; October 12, 2010 at 9:39 AM
AmenRa said...: Couldn't break through the round number 1160. Figures. I want a retest. I alos wonder how many stocks will get FC'd during the day.

FC'd=Flash crashed; October 12, 2010 at 9:40 AM
CV said...: @McF

I just looked... I'm playing you this week in FF...

Ruh Roh... I've got Aaron Rogers with a concussion, and Finley out with a hamstring injury... Steve Smith is out, Green-Ellis & beanie Wells on BYW weeks...

Things aren't looking too good for CV...; October 12, 2010 at 9:40 AM
AmenRa said...: Spoke too soon.; October 12, 2010 at 9:41 AM
Anonymous said...: in a perfect world-

the market reflects reality, Dwayne Bowe can catch a football and Ryan Mathews runs for a 100; October 12, 2010 at 9:42 AM
karen said...: zerohedge

Goldman Tells Clients To Buy COMEX Gold At $1,364.2, Raises 12 Month Gold Forecast From To $1,650, Silver To $27.60 http://bit.ly/9x9TTH; October 12, 2010 at 9:43 AM
McFearless said...: C,

yeah, I was looking over your roster late last night. I'm really liking where my squad is at right now, but you never know. If Rogers doesn't play that's obviously huge for me.; October 12, 2010 at 9:43 AM
CV said...: Dwayne Bowe made it onto C'MON MAN last night...

a dubious honor...; October 12, 2010 at 9:45 AM
CV said...: It'll be a huge loss for me...

Hard to recover his kind of production...; October 12, 2010 at 9:45 AM
Anonymous said...: I saw that-

that drop in the end zone-

woeful; October 12, 2010 at 9:46 AM
CV said...: Luckily, I play THEM THUGS next week, and that's Peyton Manning's BYE week... So some of it evens out...; October 12, 2010 at 9:46 AM
Leftback said...: USD-JPY 81.8910 -0.1782 -0.22%

Are we there yet?; October 12, 2010 at 9:48 AM
McFearless said...: no worries, Japan's Central bank has it under control, just like ours.; October 12, 2010 at 9:49 AM
karen said...: http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2010/10/kiss-coasting-along-13-day-moving.html; October 12, 2010 at 9:50 AM
AmenRa said...: LB

Considering how quick the last BoJ intervention lasted I'd say probably not.; October 12, 2010 at 9:50 AM
Anonymous said...: here's a question- all the talk of QE2-

who has guaranteed that that is a lock-

where was it said- "yes- in November- we will start QE2?

it could all be fantasy and wishful thinking; October 12, 2010 at 9:50 AM
McFearless said...: e-mails keep rolling in peeps:

Dear Benjamin:
Today's market is forcing Financial Advisors to look for alternative strategies for attractive client returns. While the High Yield market is garnering a lot of attention in the media with headlines like the NY Times' Junk Bonds are Back on Top, positioning High Income investment strategies and overcoming client apprehension requires a certain level of education and awareness.
We'd like to share with you a recent webinar on the High Yield and bond market lead by our partners at SMH Capital Advisors. In this free 30 minute audio and slide presentation, you will learn:
How to debunk the myth that High Yield is risky
Why 'stocks for the long run' may not be the best option for your clients
Why it's important to consider SEC Yields when examining bond funds
Why ETFs tend to massively under-perform the High Yield index
Where you can go to download supporting documentation on the high yield market to share with your clients; October 12, 2010 at 9:51 AM
CV said...: Is anybody getting any anecdotal reasoning as to why we're red today...

Except for... THE ECONOMY

You see, what happened was that THE ECONOMY has been great for the past 34 days, but last night, THE ECONOMY got bad...

That's it...; October 12, 2010 at 9:51 AM
McFearless said...: ahab,

who says when QE2 is implemented it isn't fantasy and wishful thinking....where do we think all the credit comes from anyway?; October 12, 2010 at 9:51 AM
McFearless said...: CV,

9:51....now what kind of question is that....easy.

BUSH; October 12, 2010 at 9:52 AM
AmenRa said...: Yesterday was the first pure doji I've seen on the SPX. Open and close were 1165.32.; October 12, 2010 at 9:52 AM
McFearless said...: The VIX yesterday was good for at least a day or two of Red, we'll see if this biatch can stay down much longer....; October 12, 2010 at 9:53 AM
Anonymous said...: . . .or maybe the market is setting up an expectation which the Fed then has to follow through on-

or not; October 12, 2010 at 9:53 AM
CV said...: @ahab

The QE2 notion came about from the comments at Jackson Hole in August...

But it's all really BS, because stated or not, the Fed's going to pull every lever it can in its little "experiment"...

The Teppers of the world are just using it as a reason to unload their longs at higher prices...

This is no different than realtors telling you that house prices would rise for at least a decade (back in '05)...; October 12, 2010 at 9:54 AM
Leftback said...: All I will say about HY is that rate risk is fairly limited. Buy the dips, but especially the big ones that are related to rate risk perception.

Earnings season starts soon, no? What's the schedule? If we rallied weakly today on the Fed minutes and ended into resistance I might short the close.

Watch the 2y auction. At some point the enthusiasm for 34 bps will wane...; October 12, 2010 at 9:55 AM
AmenRa said...: ahab

The Fed doesn't have to announce QE2 at its Nov meeting. Put a scare in Wall Street. Then three days later make the announcement. Which is what they've been doing anyway.; October 12, 2010 at 9:56 AM
Anonymous said...: This is no different than realtors telling you that house prices would rise for at least a decade (back in '05)...

I had many a realtor type tell me that the DC market was different and at the very least- no matter what happened- the homes on or near the Potomac would never go down in value-

although I didn't quite laugh in their face- I was certainly thinking it; October 12, 2010 at 9:59 AM
McFearless said...: earnings season has already begun, didn't AA already report?; October 12, 2010 at 9:59 AM
Leftback said...: Sorry, 3y auction today.... but you get the point.

Does AA earnings actually mean anything? ROR.; October 12, 2010 at 10:01 AM
CV said...: @Amen (9:56)

That's basically what happened in 2007 when the market was waiting for more 50 basis point easing...

Then they came out with a 25 basis point in the December meeting and the market took it with a THUD...

It managed to rally back and stay buoyant thru Christmas, but by January 2008, they were leaving the market in droves...

That was the beginning of the end...; October 12, 2010 at 10:01 AM
CV said...: I put some of the earnings reporting (of note) earlier in the thread...; October 12, 2010 at 10:02 AM
McFearless said...: here's today's:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/ecal?c=US; October 12, 2010 at 10:02 AM
McFearless said...: Given where operational earnings estimates are going into next year, which imply 7% nominal GDP and 5% inflation according to DR, then yes, all the earnings matter.; October 12, 2010 at 10:04 AM
Leftback said...: Marc Faber's call: sell bonds, buy stocks, dollar and rates to rise.

Faber Says Turn Coming

He is usually right, often a month or so early. We concur, although we are cash rich waiting for a correction in stocks.; October 12, 2010 at 10:05 AM
Anonymous said...: Ra-

I see much of what is going on as jawboning-

and I see the Fed in a very tight spot- all they can do is shoot for speculation (to keep asset prices afloat)-

the Hail Mary of the finance world; October 12, 2010 at 10:06 AM
Leftback said...: Ben

I meant that AA is widely considered to be the most groomed and "gamed" b/c it is out first and hence nobody pays attention.; October 12, 2010 at 10:06 AM
karen said...: cursing the XLF/$bkx...; October 12, 2010 at 10:07 AM
Anonymous said...: . . .and really- how helpful is driving down rates when rates are already at unprecedented lows; October 12, 2010 at 10:09 AM
Leftback said...: from Ben this morning:

"retail interest in stocks continues to accelerate, five e-mails this morning on stock purchase inquiry.

Meanwhile, commercial traders have reduced exposure to S&P for 6 straight weeks"

Clearly we are headed for one of those periodic 3% sell-offs that have punctuated this run-up. But the big dump doesn't come until after the QE announcement.; October 12, 2010 at 10:10 AM
Jamie Dimon said...: "how helpful is driving down rates when rates are already at unprecedented lows"

It is helpful to us, obviously. The rest of you can fuck yourselves.; October 12, 2010 at 10:11 AM
McFearless said...: Well, Faber also published a subscriber letter on 10/1 stating that he'd use rallies to "lighten up positions" and remains worried we see 850-900. He advised a short of Apple in his last letter.

he's been wrong about bonds all year, like most people, his central thesis is the same as the nets, as follows, from 10/1/10 letter:

“the reason I am less confident for the S&P 500 to break below support around 1040 is that I am increasingly convinced that, should the economy weaken again, the Fed will implement much more monetization.”; October 12, 2010 at 10:12 AM
AmenRa said...: Currency Wars Are Necessary If All Else Fails
by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard

quote:
"The atomic bomb, of course, is quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve. America has in effect issued an ultimatum to China and G20: either you stop this predatory behaviour and agree to some formula for global rebalancing, or we will deploy QE2 `a l’outrance’ to flood your economies with excess liquidity. We will cause you to overheat and drive up your wage costs. We will impose a de facto currency revaluation by more brutal and disruptive means, and there is little you can do to stop it. Pick your poison."; October 12, 2010 at 10:12 AM
McFearless said...: Leftback,

the way retail is talking it leads me to believe that a 3% pullback isn't going to phase them too much here, would support a run up to challenge the April highs by year end.; October 12, 2010 at 10:13 AM
karen said...: Thanks, Ben.. those bloomberg pieces can be misleading.. and at this point.. Buffet is a fade..

I love this quote from MM post today: "Similarly, those in the know aren't arguing about whether AUD is fair value but more just how many sigmas worth of deviation we are looking at here. TMM estimates range from 1.7 to 3. Hardly a great long term buy unless you really think the USD is going down the toilet, in which case there are better things to buy."; October 12, 2010 at 10:16 AM
karen said...: wonder is buffet is distributing his cop shares now that he is about break even on them...; October 12, 2010 at 10:17 AM
mcHAPPY said...: Anyone else notice a set up for an ED on the hourly chart? One more push above 1168 anyone?

Also the move off the EUR/USD highs does not look impulsive. One ore push higher in there as well?; October 12, 2010 at 10:18 AM
McFearless said...: meant to copy this line from Faber as well after he says he's more doubtful the market can get to 850-900, it's pretty clear where he stands so I wouldn't read too much into his comments:

"The reason for this slightly more optimistic view is that on renewed asset market weakness quantitative easing is almost a certainty."; October 12, 2010 at 10:27 AM
AmenRa said...: QE1 was to save the banks. QE2 is to save the system. To save the system is to crush all other systems. BB has his hand on the save button.; October 12, 2010 at 10:33 AM
CV said...: @Amen

What's QE3 gonna be for?; October 12, 2010 at 10:35 AM
Leftback said...: "The way retail is talking it leads me to believe that a 3% pullback isn't going to phase them too much here, would support a run up to challenge the April highs by year end."

Agreed entirely with this. The QE announcement may trigger something larger than 3%, but it will be bought.

I am not quite sure what your argument is about Faber, he is correct. You buy assets on the expectation of QE and then set yourself up for a stronger dollar and some rate rises.; October 12, 2010 at 10:35 AM
CV said...: Oh I know...

It'll be to save all those "crushed" systems that QE2 brought about...

Problem solved...; October 12, 2010 at 10:35 AM
Leftback said...: "What's QE3 gonna be for?"

To save the FED obviously... and prevent rates from running away.; October 12, 2010 at 10:36 AM
CV said...: Damn are those boys smart!; October 12, 2010 at 10:39 AM
McFearless said...: Simply pointing out Faber is really not bullish, if you read his letters all the way through you'll see he's in fact very cautious right now more than anything and moving forward so while he might state he's bullish in the public, his subscribers letters reveal something quite different. He stated over and over again in the last letter that he was reducing risk in equities, not buying them.

As for his thesis....well, I don't argue with the Fed will save us all thinking anymore, you can't have a discussion with people that have made up their mind about this at this time, just like I doubt any of you argue with any religious zealots.

@Ra,

slight correction....QE1 maybe saved SOME banks, but

1. We still close a lot of banks almost every Friday
and

2. I'm not ready to call this movies end just yet, so maybe they saved the banks.....time will tell. I don't think it's out of the question within the next 5 years one of the big four goes up in smoke.; October 12, 2010 at 10:40 AM
Anonymous said...: " . . .on renewed asset market weakness quantitative easing is almost a certainty."

asset depreciation not allowed under Bernanke's watch-

. . .and the mandate of price stability- are they really talking about houses and stocks?

or are they talking about food, staples and energy?

stocks are a choice- you take a risk- and you can lose (all of it)-

seems they have their priorities all backwards; October 12, 2010 at 10:41 AM
Leftback said...: "Simply pointing out Faber is really not bullish"

Nor am I, which is why I am 30% long and not 300% long !!! But I will buy a substantial correction in equities.; October 12, 2010 at 10:42 AM
McFearless said...: So the Fed controls rates now as well? I think not, please review chart within this thread:

http://www.safehaven.com/article/16281/you-still-believe-the-fed-can-stop-deflation; October 12, 2010 at 10:42 AM
McFearless said...: Leftback,

Faber is also anti-leverage, dude has been pounding the table on that since 08 "don't ever use leverage!"; October 12, 2010 at 10:43 AM
McFearless said...: "and the mandate of price stability- are they really talking about houses and stocks?"

beanie babies and baseball cards....er wait, those are stable either.; October 12, 2010 at 10:44 AM
AmenRa said...: Ben

I think that's why the FDIC said they are guaranteeing all deposits. It's the only way to deal with a TBTF.; October 12, 2010 at 10:44 AM
McFearless said...: lol, the FDIC doesn't have enough money to cover all the deposits at the top four banks, let alone all the banks!; October 12, 2010 at 10:47 AM
AmenRa said...: CV

After QE2 the other CB's will come up with another reserve currency. They will not want the US controlling their outcomes anymore. Welcome to Rome.; October 12, 2010 at 10:47 AM
AmenRa said...: Ben

I know but they get credit from the Treasury when they're short.; October 12, 2010 at 10:48 AM
McFearless said...: And who, pray tell, bails out treasury?

that's where all this leads, all the schemes come back to this, some might call it the "keynesian end-point"....some have, but that dude didn't have a PhD....; October 12, 2010 at 10:50 AM
CV said...: @McF

"I don't think it's out of the question within the next 5 years one of the big four goes up in smoke..."

I'll go you one further and say that this entire charade is a step in the process so we can, in fact, get to that point...

Last man standing gets all the confetti...

Reminds me of a bunch of cowboys in a bar shooting at feet to get you to dance...; October 12, 2010 at 10:51 AM
McFearless said...: "After QE2 the other CB's will come up with another reserve currency. They will not want the US controlling their outcomes anymore."

but what of the 60 some odd trillion in dollar denominated debt? What do those creditors want back for that? A new currency?; October 12, 2010 at 10:52 AM
Anonymous said...: b22-

the USG has been able to lever up at will; October 12, 2010 at 10:52 AM
72bat said...: ambrose pritchard-evans on 9/27
Shut Down the Fed (Part II)

"I apologise to readers around the world for having defended the emergency stimulus policies of the US Federal Reserve, and for arguing like an imbecile naif that the Fed would not succumb to drug addiction, political abuse, and mad intoxicated debauchery, once it began taking its first shots of quantitative easing.
"My pathetic assumption was that Ben Bernanke would deploy further QE only to stave off DEFLATION, not to create INFLATION. If the Federal Open Market Committee cannot see the difference, God help America."; October 12, 2010 at 10:53 AM
CV said...: THE FED (National Anthem)...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JJ42zxu94hE; October 12, 2010 at 10:54 AM
Anonymous said...: and speaking of debt- what of possible austerity measures w/ a probable GOP takeover?

(as an aside- that will give Obama plenty of cover for the next two years); October 12, 2010 at 10:56 AM
Anonymous said...: and Jerry Brown- can't see him losing to Meg Whitman (who is devoid of any personality); October 12, 2010 at 10:59 AM
McFearless said...: "the USG has been able to lever up at will"

this is trend extrapolation, people always default to physics when predicting social trends....iow "momentum will remain constant unless acted on by an outside force"

of course, the most certain aspect of social history is in fact dramatic change, here, try to extrapolate these:

It is 1886, Project the American railroad industry

It is 1970, Project the future of China

It is 1963, Project the cost of medical care in the U.S.

It is 1969, Project the US space program

and one for CV

It is 100 AD, Project the future of the Roman civilization.; October 12, 2010 at 11:01 AM
CV said...: "but what of the 60 some odd trillion in dollar denominated debt? What do those creditors want back for that?"

---

Ummm... How about the "business end" of an American M1A1 Abrams tank for starters?

:-); October 12, 2010 at 11:12 AM
Anonymous said...: b22-

please note my use of "has been" not "will be"

point being-

it "has been" the case so far

also- projection:

1990 Soviet Union

1914- Austro-Hungarian Empire; October 12, 2010 at 11:12 AM
CV said...: @McF

"It is 100 AD, Project the future of the Roman civilization"

---

I'd say it's more like Rome AD 180-192 right now (because we have "Commodus the Magnificent" as Emperor)...; October 12, 2010 at 11:20 AM
CV said...: Going back to Faber... (and any notion that interest rates would rise anytime soon)...

Correct me if I'm wrong (or if something has materially changed since I last looked at it)...

But it seems to me that back in April/May, I'd posted something here about Blackrock having removed the interest rate swaps off the Maiden Lane portfolio it's handling for the wizards...

Sure, they could put these back on, but C'MON MAN... These things would blow sky high with even a 50 basis point move...

Rates AREN'T GOING UP...

Which makes me question Faber's logic there...; October 12, 2010 at 11:24 AM
McFearless said...: Faber has been bearish on bonds in general since 07ish, he's been really wrong about them. he's more a commodity/gold kinda dude, and has in general been very right about those, and about stocks.; October 12, 2010 at 11:31 AM
CV said...: @McF

Last word on subject (for me)...

It is VERY difficult for me to get this chart out of my head...

http://www.businessinsider.com/the-fundamental-question-for-investors-which-will-blink-first-bonds-or-stocks-2010-10

As soon as I can latch onto something that justifies that, then I'll expand my consciousness to encompass other schools of thought...; October 12, 2010 at 11:37 AM
CV said...: BI-FLATION I tell you...

That's it!; October 12, 2010 at 11:39 AM
McFearless said...: CV,

can't we envision a situation where they both go down?

Impossible? We'll see about that.; October 12, 2010 at 11:43 AM
CV said...: RMFAO

Yale Ph.D., And Former Fed Member Tells Obama To Pull A "Gordon Brown" And Sell All Of America's Gold

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/yale-phd-and-former-fed-member-tells-obama-pull-gordon-brown-and-sell-all-americas-gold; October 12, 2010 at 11:43 AM
CV said...: "can't we envision a situation where they both go down?"

I'm just waiting for somebody in the FED to accidentally KEY the "divide by zero" function...

That ought to be a fun day...; October 12, 2010 at 11:45 AM
karen said...: aapl made a new high today.. can we just get to $300 already?; October 12, 2010 at 11:47 AM
karen said...: and now we've got YCS solidly below 16.. not just a quick tap but stuck..; October 12, 2010 at 11:48 AM
karen said...: new lows for vxx..; October 12, 2010 at 11:48 AM
AmenRa said...: CV

Looked at that chart. When it decides to revert it's going to get ugly.

*When doing correlation coefficient what is usually the better range? A fibo number? Or something even simpler?; October 12, 2010 at 11:50 AM
karen said...: interesting post here and onlooker commented:

http://fridayinvegas.blogspot.com/2010/10/so-you-like-alan-grayson.html; October 12, 2010 at 11:55 AM
karen said...: Fed’s Hoenig continues to try and hold back the tide
Written by Jamie Coleman
October 12, 2010 at 15:48 GMT
US data trends highly encouraging
Recovery has slowed but not faltered
Fed must focus on long-term goals, not short-term targets
Legitimate reasons to be cautious quantitative easing
Buying $500 bln in Treasuries may not even lower rates 10 bp
Dumping another trillion into the economy likely to have little impact on economy, stocks
Second round of QE could undermine Fed independence
Further QE risky, could lead to 4-5% inflation
Fed should consider ending reinvestment of maturing securities
Remove low rates for extended period commitment, hike rates to 1%
KC FED president Hoenig continues his quixotic quests to hold back the coming tide of quantitative ease. Good luck with that, Tom…; October 12, 2010 at 11:55 AM
CV said...: @karen

Maybe AAPL won't make it to $300?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RD1KqbDdmuE; October 12, 2010 at 11:57 AM
McFearless said...: meant to post this up yesterday:

"Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show hedge funds and other large speculators are more bearish on the dollar than at any time in history, with bets on a decline exceeding those on a rise by 341,683 contracts as of Oct. 5."; October 12, 2010 at 11:57 AM
AmenRa said...: LB

Didn't you say something about 2yr, TIPS and Gold getting sold at the same time?; October 12, 2010 at 12:02 PM
karen said...: even today.. i look at C and BAC and see nothing bullish in those charts..; October 12, 2010 at 12:26 PM
karen said...: check the WMT candle... not bullish..; October 12, 2010 at 12:28 PM
McFearless said...: whats the matter Karen, don't you see the little QEII's inside the candles on those charts?; October 12, 2010 at 12:28 PM
karen said...: oh my.. the insider sales at lulu in september...; October 12, 2010 at 12:29 PM
CV said...: @karen

C reports next Monday... & BAC reports on Tuesday...

I've said many timess... It's been like clockwork about the last 5 quarters in a row to ramp these stocks into earnings reporting, then sell the news...

Like CRUDE THURSDAYS...; October 12, 2010 at 12:30 PM
CV said...: but we all really know it's THE ELECTIONS...

Other blogs told me so...; October 12, 2010 at 12:32 PM
karen said...: DR is blunt this afternoon: This is a market completely based on hope. Throw fundamental investment principles out the window. It’s now all about how the Fed can manage to inflate asset prices now that fiscal policy has tested its limits with the voting public.; October 12, 2010 at 12:42 PM
karen said...: CV.. this will make you smile:

http://devour.com/video/she-is-a-thing-of-beauty/; October 12, 2010 at 12:44 PM
McFearless said...: karen, use the word religion instead of hope, not only is it a more accurate description, but it really gets under the skin of those that have placed all their faith in the Feds...which is fun.; October 12, 2010 at 12:44 PM
Obama said...: Not only do those evil corporations ship jobs overseas, now it turns out that they're trying to buy the election.; October 12, 2010 at 12:47 PM
karen said...: Investing and the Irrational Mind!!

http://www.cmegroup.com/education/interactive/webinars-archived/investing-and-the-irrational-mind.html; October 12, 2010 at 12:50 PM
karen said...: tradefast

isi degraff technician on cnbc - last week he said spx 1220 year end - currently, he is saying need pullback to work off overbot condition; October 12, 2010 at 12:51 PM
karen said...: ben, at 12:44, i follow ya : ); October 12, 2010 at 12:56 PM
CV said...: @karen (12:44)

Fantastic! :-); October 12, 2010 at 1:06 PM
karen said...: It is supposedly Wes Anderson directed.. Life Aquatic, the Royal Tenenbaums, Fantastic Mr. Fox.. I could the connection.. : ); October 12, 2010 at 1:07 PM
CV said...: @Obama

Thanks Barry...

Feel free to chime in anytime with your insights...

I, for one, am a citicen who constantly needs to be reminded how to THINK (being as I'm incapable of doing it on my own)...; October 12, 2010 at 1:08 PM
CV said...: @karen

Love the music on that too...; October 12, 2010 at 1:09 PM
McFearless said...: we need a thought czar; October 12, 2010 at 1:09 PM
karen said...: must click:

Stimulus Package: http://twitpic.com/2x19g9/full

Quantitative Easing: http://twitpic.com/2x19jj/full; October 12, 2010 at 1:09 PM
karen said...: MEXICO CITY (Dow Jones)--Yields on Mexican government securities fell Tuesday at the Bank of Mexico's weekly auction as investors continue to expect interest rates to stay low for an extended period of time.; October 12, 2010 at 1:13 PM
CV said...: @McF

Well on the subject of CZARS... At least we know ol' Barry is auditioning for his next gig...

http://thepeoplescube.com/images/Czars_Dancing_200.gif; October 12, 2010 at 1:16 PM
McFearless said...: all I got was a cheerleader on those links.; October 12, 2010 at 1:16 PM
karen said...: 3 Year Auction Closes At Lowest Bid To Cover Since February, Highest Primary Dealer Participation Since February 2009

http://bit.ly/cYMaom; October 12, 2010 at 1:18 PM
karen said...: You guys are making it difficult for me to cheer you up!

Jim Grant: Here Is Where The Fed Went Wrong http://read.bi/a67nn6; October 12, 2010 at 1:19 PM
karen said...: sorry... i probably posted that Jim Grant already.. yes.. i did..; October 12, 2010 at 1:19 PM
CV said...: @karen

I'm not in a bad mood today...

But if you REALLY want to cheer me up, link me to the site that says the DOW is down 4,000 points...; October 12, 2010 at 1:21 PM
CV said...: Administration lifts 6-month oil drilling freeze

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/us_obama_drilling_moratorium

Translation: We're behind in the polls in some states

That CAGEY Obama... He know JUST WHEN drilling is "safe" and "unsafe"...

Man - I have to get me a prescription for some of those SMART PILLS he wolfs down by the fistful...; October 12, 2010 at 1:26 PM
McFearless said...: getting a real kick out of all the "it's all going to end badly" chatter of late.....what do they mean "going to"

lets see, has it already ended badly for the 17% counted in U-6....check

has it already ended badly for the 1 in 7 families on food stamps....check

should I keep going?; October 12, 2010 at 1:26 PM
McFearless said...: OT:

I have to come out with it...I think I have an addiction to popsicles, no joke.; October 12, 2010 at 1:30 PM
karen said...: http://mrtopstep.com/2010/10/12/overnight-china-news-and-fed-weighs-on-morning-trade/; October 12, 2010 at 1:33 PM
AmenRa said...: I'm getting a kick of how the market avoided being down 1% as the FOMC minutes get released. Could've ended up down 3-5% after the release. Thanks PD's.; October 12, 2010 at 1:35 PM
karen said...: ben, i'm not surprised.. cold and sweet seems to do it for you! frou frou drinks!?; October 12, 2010 at 1:35 PM
karen said...: ugh.. GS just wrecked my day..; October 12, 2010 at 1:36 PM
CV said...: @McF

The definition of "It all will end badly" is when a banker (any banker) doesn't get a bonus check...; October 12, 2010 at 1:39 PM
karen said...: A bunch of leading hedge fund managers has just published a collection of essays looking at the serious possibility that the recent financial unpleasantness was just an amuse-bouche for the main event – the really ghastly crash that awaits us all when governments start debasing the currency, when stock and bond markets go into extreme meltdown, when sovereigns themselves go belly-up.

http://www.businessinsider.com/the-gathering-storm-book-2010-10; October 12, 2010 at 1:39 PM
CV said...: when you see people on the street with cardboard signs that say...

"WILL CREATE DERIVATIVE SIV's FOR FOOD"

Then you'll know it all ended badly...; October 12, 2010 at 1:42 PM
CV said...: @karen

how TF long does "a storm" take to gather anyway?; October 12, 2010 at 1:43 PM
AmenRa said...: from ZH: Shorts Refuse To Capitulate

Chart:
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/shirakawa/Short%20Interest.jpg; October 12, 2010 at 1:45 PM
McFearless said...: "The definition of "It all will end badly" is when a banker (any banker) doesn't get a bonus check..."

So I guess all the banks that have been closed in the last three years have already visited the "it will end badly" path.

my point was....it's already really bad for a lot of people, they aren't waiting for the next shoe to drop.; October 12, 2010 at 1:46 PM
McFearless said...: do you all have a lot of people outside around you with signs asking for food or money?

I see them every day all summer here, a couple key spots where people always are, I know you aren't supposed to do it but if I'm stopped I always give whatever cash I have. The guys/girls with the military story make me very sad.; October 12, 2010 at 1:48 PM
Leftback said...: OK, people, this isn't the end of days for the Treasury market, but I have been warning about these auctions at these levels:

A week of heavy supply gets off to a bumpy start. Coverage of 2.95 at today's $32 billion 3-year note auction is the lowest level since the February auction.

Buyside participation was weak with dealers taking down an over sized 59% of the auction for their largest share since January last year. In another sign of weakness, the stop-out rate of 0.569 percent is 1/2 basis point over the 1:00 ET bid.

The issue's record low coupon of 0.500 percent is a reminder how much rates are coming down. For comparison, the coupon on the April issue is 1.750 percent. The Treasury auctions $21 billion of 10-year notes tomorrow.; October 12, 2010 at 1:50 PM
McFearless said...: Karen,

yeah, anything cold...I'm drawn to it, I'm the 30 year old getting the icee every time I go to WaWa, or some frozen vanilla something when I go to the bookstore.; October 12, 2010 at 1:51 PM
karen said...: CV, this might be up your alley..

http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/smoothed-breadth-and-market-dead-air-internal-divergences/; October 12, 2010 at 1:52 PM
arbitrage789 said...: All those riots and protests in Greece and France are coming to a neighborhood near you.

But it'll take a few years.; October 12, 2010 at 1:53 PM
karen said...: hey.. just found out i can get buzz and banter free from e*trade but it's not launching when i press launch.. hope they work out the bugs on that..; October 12, 2010 at 1:57 PM
karen said...: http://www.businessinsider.com/chart-of-the-day-city-pension-accounting-2010-10; October 12, 2010 at 1:58 PM
arbitrage789 said...: You can get "buzz-n-banter" for free here.; October 12, 2010 at 1:59 PM
karen said...: if these minutes move this market i will be disgusted.. it really shouldn't matter..; October 12, 2010 at 2:00 PM
karen said...: DL, you know i just talk to myself here.. and i won't be able to post and buzz&banter.. lucky them.. i've had the service before and loved it..; October 12, 2010 at 2:01 PM
McFearless said...: leftback,

isn't tomorrow a POMO, no mention of how that could have impacted today's action?

This link might be worth a look:

http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/pomo/display/index.cfm?showmore=1&opertype=orig; October 12, 2010 at 2:01 PM
arbitrage789 said...: If we're not all SHOCKED by the fed minutes, then we'll be SHOCKED by the intel earnings.; October 12, 2010 at 2:02 PM
CV said...: @karen

The "biggest" DIVERGENCE I'm looking at right now shows up on the 60 minute charts...

I put up a SPY chart about a week ago here that showed the amplitude peaks and what TIMEFRAME I might be anticipating a correction to occur...

You remember... I was talking about TIME (not PRICE) and you made a comment...

Anyway - we're now within 6 trading days of probably needing some kind of move to occur...

It could happen at any moment, but I don't mind being a little short here...

I'm too lazy right now... But tomorrow morning, I'll put that chart back up (because it's the main thing I've been looking at for the past 3-4 weeks that's nagging at me that this market could possibly stay buoyant for a little while longer)...

That, and, of course... THE ELECTIONS... ror...; October 12, 2010 at 2:03 PM
CV said...: @DL

In a HFT world, why do they do FED MINUTES?

I mean... by now... we should be down to FED MICROSECONDS...

Right?; October 12, 2010 at 2:04 PM
McFearless said...: any top step video today?; October 12, 2010 at 2:05 PM
72bat said...: 1st ~10 minutes after release of minutes is a headfake, you kno' right?; October 12, 2010 at 2:07 PM
CV said...: @72

karen says: I kno right?
cv says" I kno right?
LB (pretending to be CV's ex girlfriend) says: I kno right?; October 12, 2010 at 2:08 PM
karen said...: ben.. i posted the top step video already!!! (1:33)

http://mrtopstep.com/2010/10/12/overnight-china-news-and-fed-weighs-on-morning-trade/; October 12, 2010 at 2:09 PM
McFearless said...: my bad, my mouth was hot around then.....thanks!; October 12, 2010 at 2:10 PM
karen said...: gld isn't buying the QE yet.. crude either.. eem either.. only XLF and $bkx !!

i wonder why : ); October 12, 2010 at 2:10 PM
CV said...: Didn't BUD FOX chew on popsicles?; October 12, 2010 at 2:12 PM
arbitrage789 said...: gold isn't buying the QE yet?

What's it been doing over the last month?; October 12, 2010 at 2:12 PM
karen said...: oop, i spoke too soon.. gold, crude, EM, jumping on the band wagon..; October 12, 2010 at 2:13 PM
McFearless said...: oh, you don't want to chew the sticks, knew a guy that had problems as a result of doing that.; October 12, 2010 at 2:13 PM
Leftback said...: CV (pretending to be LB's ex girlfriend) says: I kno, right?; October 12, 2010 at 2:14 PM
McFearless said...: so from top step...sub 20 VIX could stay, point out that all sell-offs are weak...

yup...; October 12, 2010 at 2:14 PM
Leftback said...: LB would like a nice rally in the tech stocks into the close here (the PUMP) followed by a crappy set of results from Intel (the DUMP).; October 12, 2010 at 2:15 PM
CV said...: all I can say is...

THE PROBLEMS that resulted from chewing on the sticks, were probably NOT NEARLY as bad as the problems that CAUSED the act of chewing on the sticks...

If you know what I mean...; October 12, 2010 at 2:16 PM
McFearless said...: Is gold a QE story? I doubt I need to explain my opinion, so here's another:

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/09/is-gold-a-dollar-phenom/; October 12, 2010 at 2:16 PM
arbitrage789 said...: Bad results from intel?

Impossible.

BTE, BTE, BTE; October 12, 2010 at 2:16 PM
Leftback said...: Karen said: "i've had the service before and loved it.."

That's what we understand..; October 12, 2010 at 2:17 PM
CV said...: @DL

WTE from Intel means that all of QE2 will go into supporting INTC stock...

I heard it from Tepper...

BUY!; October 12, 2010 at 2:18 PM
Leftback said...: LB is crabby. This is what he had to deal with at futbol last night:

NYC Hail Storm; October 12, 2010 at 2:19 PM
karen said...: aapl ever so close to $300 now..; October 12, 2010 at 2:19 PM
arbitrage789 said...: CV,

Yeah, I saw that Tepper video.; October 12, 2010 at 2:20 PM
CV said...: Well - that "penny stock" that I've hel onto for 4 years now is up 46.8% today...

So I have that going for me...; October 12, 2010 at 2:20 PM
McFearless said...: wow, that's some big hail,....hope you had that new beamer under a roof man.; October 12, 2010 at 2:20 PM
arbitrage789 said...: As I've said before, I do think that Bernanke is going to keep flooding the system with money until the price of oil becomes a political liability.; October 12, 2010 at 2:21 PM
McFearless said...: well, like him or not DT really made some waves when he went on CNBC, that's gotta be one of the most talked about interviews of the last few years.; October 12, 2010 at 2:21 PM
CV said...: I'm thinking this is going to end up being a FUN next... about... 10 days...

First we have to put Andy under his desk at 1174...

Then the FUN will start? You know... THE FUN; October 12, 2010 at 2:23 PM
McFearless said...: well, Neely is long and strong as of right now; October 12, 2010 at 2:23 PM
McFearless said...: to be fair that is only for hourly traders, though if the upside target is 1200 I'm not sure why it isn't for weekly traders.; October 12, 2010 at 2:24 PM
arbitrage789 said...: I also think that if we get a Republican president in 2013, the pressure on the Fed to tighten money will be greater than will be the case if Obama is re-elected.; October 12, 2010 at 2:24 PM
McFearless said...: as I said Friday I was interested in going balls to the wall short with Andy on that trade but I doubt it at this point, just going to have to sit this one out. The 1,200 target is just too high of a probability.

So many retail suckers are going to get reamed in the next six months, but they could have a little fun first with their unrealized gains.; October 12, 2010 at 2:26 PM
CV said...: @LB

The hail (& lightning) delayed the start of the JETS-VIKINGS game by 45 minutes...

It was bad, because the sports announcers on ESPN had to "cover" (and they weren't ready)...

They were tossing POLITICS into it by the end...

It was UGLY... Worthy of it's own C'MON MAN!...; October 12, 2010 at 2:26 PM
McFearless said...: ok, see you all tomorrow....g.l. with your trades.; October 12, 2010 at 2:26 PM
CV said...: Fucking Tom Jackson was talking about how Rex Ryan wants the jets to win the Super Bowl so he can go meet Barack Obama...

I mean... FUCK... That's the C'MON MAN of the year!; October 12, 2010 at 2:27 PM
CV said...: Oh no wait...

DL's (2:24) just got the C'MON MAN of the year...; October 12, 2010 at 2:28 PM
CV said...: @McF

I'm going to disagree... At least in this way...

I think that within 6 days we get a meaningful correction... IOW - we get the meaningful correction BEFORE 1200 (if that ends up getting hit)...

Just a timing thing...; October 12, 2010 at 2:31 PM
AmenRa said...: Well there's one good thing. The Fed minuetes didn't reverse the 30min 3LB. Phew.; October 12, 2010 at 2:33 PM
arbitrage789 said...: “I think that within 6 days we get a meaningful correction”

I agree. But that’s what I thought 6 days ago.; October 12, 2010 at 2:33 PM
AmenRa said...: 72bat

The first 10min eh?; October 12, 2010 at 2:34 PM
karen said...: DL, I beg you to read this:

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/art-cashin-explains-qe2-using-bernanke-chief-horticulturalist

also.. just did a chart of FXI with JJC overlay... another lockstep correlation.; October 12, 2010 at 2:37 PM
CV said...: @DL

Well... You were only 6 days off...

So you have that going for you :-); October 12, 2010 at 2:37 PM
arbitrage789 said...: K @ 2:37

I took a quick look at it.; October 12, 2010 at 2:39 PM
karen said...: can i have a drink now???; October 12, 2010 at 2:39 PM
arbitrage789 said...: K @ 2:39

It cures arthritis, among other things:

http://www.winespectator.com/webfeature/show/id/Drinking-Alcohol-May-Halt-Arthritis-Research-Finds_3353; October 12, 2010 at 2:43 PM
Leftback said...: The first 10min eh?

That was a piece of mickey-taking....

I kno, right?; October 12, 2010 at 2:43 PM
karen said...: okay, Ben, I'm eating ice cold watermelon chunks with fresh lime.. better for you than popsicles! oh, my, they just melt in my mouth.. I think i'll find a use for the leftover juice, too.. but after noon, for heaven's sake.; October 12, 2010 at 2:43 PM
Leftback said...: Lots of data to show protective effects of moderate alcohol. Several protective cellular mechanisms are activated by modest levels of alcohol.

The trick is to stop at the right time and not to drink all the time ... higher levels of alcohol over longer periods of exposure promote inflammatory processes.; October 12, 2010 at 2:46 PM
karen said...: as if today wasn't miserable enuf.. now my email won't work..

will aapl at 300 be the equivalent of ringing the bell?; October 12, 2010 at 2:46 PM
arbitrage789 said...: LB @ 2:46

I'll drink to that.; October 12, 2010 at 2:47 PM
ZH Poster said...: TBT BITCHEZ...; October 12, 2010 at 2:48 PM
Leftback said...: "Lots of data to show protective effects of moderate alcohol. "

So LB has read, it's not like we are a brain scientist or anything.; October 12, 2010 at 2:48 PM

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Morning Audibles 10.12.10

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