TRADERS ANONYMOUS: Morning Audibles 10.13.10

Morning Audibles 10.13.10

With futures slightly green this morning, we're getting very near the 1174-1175 zone (where many traders around here have been calling as an area, basically, where "the bullet hits the bone"...

CV has been pointing out for several weeks now that there was evidence (at least the way I see things), that Mr. Market was not only looking for a certain PRICE level, but that it was also marking TIME... I presented some of the following charts a few weeks ago, but I'll update them here...

If my observations are correct, a "corrective" move should begin within 6 trading days... It may have already begun and/or could start at any time... It is quite possible, given the number of bearish divergences, and the nature of the last "correction", that the move could happen without warning, and be quite steep... I would expect the "feel" of the move (as it's happening) to convert a lot of newly minted bulls, back to bears, in a flash... In any case... The GREEN BOX area is what I'd be looking for...

This a look at the VIX WEEKLY... One of my favorite indicators of "corrective" moves that come without warning is when the candles touch the lower BB's... Mind you, this is a WEEKLY VIX, so a touch can be made, then nothing happens for several days... In any case, we're getting very close... Another way of looking at this is when the upper BB band gets itself down around the 30 level... Often that brings about 1-3 days of long white candles only to come back and resume trend afterwards... The bottom line is that this VIX chart complements the SPY chart with respect to some of the TIME elements mentioned before...

Of course, if none of this really interests you, because you're a bull, and care more about making money, than being right, you could simply go about your merry way and "sext" fotos of your @ssets to this girl right here...

J! - E! - T! - S!

JETS! - JETS! - JETS!

First though... You might want to check to make sure that she's not on the payroll of the company you work for (or you'd risk a "harrassment" or "misconduct" case)...

Does anybody know how the SEC handles things like this? I'm thinking this guy, after the VIKINGS lose their next game, and he tosses 3 more interceptions, might be getting himself a job at the SEC (and I'm NOT talking "South Eastern Conference")...

The last I heard, his wife was chasing him out of the house hitting him with a football helmet and he was crashing his tractor into a tree... Stay tuned...

300 comments:

«Oldest ‹Older 1 – 200 of 300 Newer› Newest»

CV said...: AAPL over $300 in pre-market...

JPM - ror; October 13, 2010 at 8:33 AM
ben22 said...: hilarious CV.

Here's what also worries me, the pattern site shows over 400 stocks with patterns close to confirm breakouts, on 10/8 that figure was only 150. There are some various bearish signals, like CPCI, maybe VIX....but just as many bull signals. BR has mentioned excessive pessimism today, could be worth a day or two of pullback, because that's such nonsense.; October 13, 2010 at 8:34 AM
Anonymous said...: Favre- who can blame him- I mean really- that figure staggers me

Also- I find this fascinating, which I touched on last night-

Some Fed officials are concerned that expectations of lower inflation will become self-fulfilling, damping demand by increasing borrowing costs in real terms, the minutes said. By encouraging Americans to believe prices will start rising at a faster pace, the Fed would reduce inflation-adjusted interest rates and stimulate the economy. Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said in 2003 that Japan could beat deflation by using a “publicly announced, gradually rising price-level target.”

. . .so- if I am reading this right- to attain whatever price level they are shooting for- inflation at any level is acceptable-

hmmmm . . .but still- how do they get the price level if there is no demand-?; October 13, 2010 at 8:37 AM
Anonymous said...: . . .and also . . .Dylan was a genius and incredible songwriter-

comparing him to Kansas?

c'mon man; October 13, 2010 at 8:39 AM
spoonman said...: re:dylan

The man wrote great songs, but you can only tell they're great when Hendrix performed them. Dylan sounds like a drowning cat.

Also, not to distract from what should be an interesting day, but the most overrated band ever? The Beatles. Sorry, but I said it.; October 13, 2010 at 9:01 AM
ben22 said...: ahab,

I just sort of pretended AT didn't say that about Dylan, I'm a huge fan....you couldn't really understand Cobain much when he sang either....some of Dylan's non epic hits are some of my fav songs, the entire Freewheelin' album is awesome...Girl From the North Country....great song.; October 13, 2010 at 9:03 AM
CV said...: The Beatles were the Justin Beiber of their day...

Oh I shudder to think the legacy that might be in the making...

ROR; October 13, 2010 at 9:04 AM
ben22 said...: the dylan that was overrated...thats jacob; October 13, 2010 at 9:05 AM
Anonymous said...: b22-

I hear you-

re the Beatles-

they were very diverse- one only have to listen to the White Album to understand that-

one of the best albums ever made; October 13, 2010 at 9:08 AM
CV said...: Good little article about how those "geniuses" at the FED have been WINGING IT for the past 97 years...

For Orderly Dissolution Of The Fed, Before It Does Us Even More Harm

http://www.investors.com/NewsAndAnalysis/Article.aspx?id=550150; October 13, 2010 at 9:09 AM
ben22 said...: I did agree with the comments on jethro tull, hilarious. they once won an award for best metal band or album I believe....they have a flute in the band....that's all I'm going to say. Flute/Metal.

course....skating away on the thin ice of a brand new day is somewhat fitting for our ...situation.; October 13, 2010 at 9:12 AM
AmenRa said...: Are they going to try and get TNX to 2.5% before the auction? I don't think there are that many interested parties. If the PD's and direct bidders (Fed) take down over 70% of an auction then that's not a good sign.; October 13, 2010 at 9:13 AM
karen said...: good morning! "futures slightly up" ?? not the ones I saw earlier.. 11044, 1174.75 spx.. thanks for the fotos, CV.. now I'll zero in on your chart.; October 13, 2010 at 9:14 AM
Anonymous said...: and in 2010 I'm voting for this woman- I don't even care that she lives in SD-

http://www.conservative.org/south-dakotas-at-large-kristi-noem/5132/

no doubt that Favre would text her- a quick bio-

Kristi actively farmed with her family for 17 years [and] owned and operated a hunting operation . . .Noem's lifetime driving record includes 20 speeding tickets, three stop sign violations, two seat belt violations, and a citation for failing to carry her driver's license. She has also received six notices for failing to appear in court and two arrest warrants for failing to pay fines related to her tickets. She was stopped by police earlier this year for driving 94 mph.

she sounds wild; October 13, 2010 at 9:15 AM
karen said...: "Not only have many of these folks missed getting long equities during a generational bull run, but they suggested shorting the stock market, right in the face of an 82% nine month SPX run.Thats now up XX% from the March ’09 lows."

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/10/who-are-the-goldbrickers/; October 13, 2010 at 9:21 AM
karen said...: how can we be in a generational bull run (in equities) with unemployment at 10% (easy) and the financial system on life support..; October 13, 2010 at 9:26 AM
Anonymous said...: last I heard BR was a secular bear; October 13, 2010 at 9:28 AM
karen said...: actually, if you start at the bottom of thread of that BR post, the comments are carefully worded..; October 13, 2010 at 9:29 AM
karen said...: Roach: 2:30 There is a lot of hot money going around and a lot more to come from the next round of QE. All of that excess liquidity is going to flow into high yielding Asia. Never in favor of capital controls, but may have to be used.
3:30 "It's not gonna work. QE1 didn't work, QE2 didn't work, QE 12 will not work. When you have an economy that is deleveraging and you throw liquidity at it do you think American families are just gonna so oh, we've got a lot of money, lets just go back into debt again or lets squander our savings?"
3:50 American families are in shock from the recession, they are rebuilding their balance sheets as they head for retirement. You can't defer this.

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/stephen-roach-quantitative-easing-2010-10#ixzz12FHutxtZ; October 13, 2010 at 9:33 AM
CV said...: BR...

And many others who like to pen things like "up up and away in my beautiful balloon"...

Are great at telling you what the stock market did yesterday...; October 13, 2010 at 9:37 AM
karen said...: XLF/$BKX hit the ceiling.. both red now..; October 13, 2010 at 9:38 AM
karen said...: BAC red.. and you'll luv C's daily candle set up..; October 13, 2010 at 9:40 AM
CV said...: The obvious "secret" to being an equity guru is, then, to simply take a BULL or BEAR approach...

and NEVER committ to commentating on things like TIME or AMPLITUDE...

If you're just a BULL or BEAR, no matter what, you have a 50% chance of being right... If you're a MOMENTUM driven bull or bear, you can improve those odds (because since you didn't commit to TIME or AMPLITUDE - if you wait a couple of days, your side will probably swing back into favor...

Of course, those types NEVER seem to jump onto the other side of the momentum bandwagon until all the gains from when they became committal to one side are wiped out...

Thus, they never "book" their paper winnings...; October 13, 2010 at 9:43 AM
Anonymous said...: re price level targeting:

“The theory is elegant, but it’s unclear in practice whether short-term moves in inflation expectations really drive real growth,” said Dean Maki, chief U.S. economist at Barclays Capital Inc. in New York and a former Fed researcher.

it's kind of interesting- this whole idea of setting up an expectation- so that people do what is not even in their interests-

as I have said 2 years ago- it's all about getting the folks back on the hamster wheel- credit expansion at all costs; October 13, 2010 at 9:43 AM
karen said...: Financials green again.. nice synchronicity here: up .66%, .62%, .62%; October 13, 2010 at 9:50 AM
karen said...: even better now.. .58%, .57%, .57%; October 13, 2010 at 9:51 AM
karen said...: sorry! it's not people trading this market.. but it is what it is.. wish I could have been Smart like Tepper.; October 13, 2010 at 9:52 AM
CV said...: I'm adding a few shorts here... (going to about 50%); October 13, 2010 at 10:01 AM
CV said...: I'm going to put up an interesting GOOG chart in a minute...; October 13, 2010 at 10:01 AM
karen said...: new 52 week high for gld and almost for jjc..
new low for vxx; October 13, 2010 at 10:01 AM
CV said...: new chart in thread

GOOG DAILY - They report tomorrow...; October 13, 2010 at 10:03 AM
Anonymous said...: karen-

just buy some commodities and relax-

inflation is coming (and the Fed's got your back); October 13, 2010 at 10:04 AM
McFearless said...: Just remember, it's funny what rallies during bear markets make people say.

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_01/seymour062001.html; October 13, 2010 at 10:05 AM
McFearless said...: glad to see you all showed up for church today; October 13, 2010 at 10:06 AM
karen said...: Ben, money wasn't 1s and 0s then.. : (; October 13, 2010 at 10:07 AM
karen said...: and, Ben, trading wasn't computerized then, either : (; October 13, 2010 at 10:08 AM
mcHAPPY said...: I have to disagree with the pessimism comments from BR. I'm not seeing ANY in MSM. The bad news that is coming out is still being coated as good news. The mortgage/foreclosure mess is still being 'explained' to people. The only people that 'get it' are bloggers, the Chris Whalen's of the world, and one or two MSM 'journalists'. The commodities are at extremes of optimism, most major currencies are at major optimistic levels with the exception of USD which has 3% bulls - 3%!

The foreclosure mess is the end game for the banks. Mark to market hid the facts for a long time but when you take away the cash flow of people paying mortgages coupled with not being able to get a return of ANYTHING of the property - well it becomes quite awful. Couple this with the fact loan loss reserves are being depleted as this goes on AND revenue is DOWN. Denninger reported revenue down 15% for JPM. That is a huge miss.

Also the technicals on the 4hour and daily charts are hardly pessimistic.

Anyways, I'm not seeing the pessimism out there (except for Denninger).

Ben I assume you saw the EWT yesterday? Not much to add in terms of charts but a lot to make his 'case'. What do you think?; October 13, 2010 at 10:10 AM
karen said...: ahab.. what do you think of this story? just skim it, there won't be a quiz.

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE69C2OU20101013; October 13, 2010 at 10:10 AM
Anonymous said...: what does everyone think of this from the new Chief of the Consumer Protection Bureau?

Elizabeth Warren said she did not believe lenders were entitled to a "level of revenue set at a time that it was a kind of 'anything-goes' world," and firms that failed to adapt to the new era of financial transparency would perish.; October 13, 2010 at 10:11 AM
karen said...: in case you were wondering about gld just now:

mrtopstep

[09:07:46 AM]: bloomie tv saying china to put more of their reserves into gold; October 13, 2010 at 10:12 AM
CV said...: This is the first time SPX has been over the top of the 5/5 candle (day before FLASH CRASH)...

It's exploring a little into the 5/4 candle (which was a long red one)...

The big thing about 5/4 was that it was the day back from a long weekend... NOT IN THE USA (because it was a Tuesday)... But in Europe... (May 3rd was the "market closed" day for LABOR DAY - MAY 1 weekend in much of Europe)...

May 4th was previously CV's "bogey" day for the EUR-USD collapsing down to the 1.29 level (which it hit exactly on that day - then proceeded down further on Greek worries)...

Anyway...

- Holiday weekend
- Euro collapse
- Flash crash

all happened within a few days (on the charts)...

We're fooling around with those levels now...

My observations (since March '09), was that the market has probed these levels, but usually fails on the first attempt to get through...

We're STILL not thru 1220 (which was the test of the LEHMAN candle)...

This would be as good a time as any for a correction if the market is going to muster any effort to get back to 1220 within the next couple of months...

In the few of these occasions I've witnessed, it can take up to 3 days before the market calls it quits... But I don't mind being short because the OTHER SIDE of the level isn't aggressively bought... (or at least that hasn't been the case - go look at all the wave peaks since '09 if you question my reasoning)...; October 13, 2010 at 10:14 AM
karen said...: MARC_FABER - Bloomberg saying China to put more of their reserves into gold .... $10 move AU

This so reminds me of the China-QCOM rumours of the dot.com day..; October 13, 2010 at 10:14 AM
McFearless said...: Karen,

money has always been whatever we make it...then and now, I wouldn't be so quick to claim this time is different, there is nothing new under the sun.

McHappy,

I haven't read an EWT STU in months so I have no idea what he said nor do I really care. They've had the wrong count for months and foolishly are sticking too it imo, the objective response to TA right now is I can find nearly as much to be bearish about as I can to be bullish about, so I'm not getting my panties in a bunch over P3, if anything if we get a sharp dip I'll buy it.

Also, as I've documented several times over the last few months Barry does not read sentiment well at all, he's got threads I'm sure he'd love to bury that claim bullish sentiment was 'waning' at the April top....that was as laughable then as his "excessive pessimism" and "main st. is underallocated to equities" baloney is now. Best to hit the next page button when BR starts blabbing about sentiment...he's a momentum guy, he runs with the herd just long enough, he likes to play a contrarian on the web though, subscribe to Fusion for a few months and you'll see what I mean.; October 13, 2010 at 10:16 AM
CV said...: @McHappy

"I have to disagree with the pessimism comments from BR. I'm not seeing ANY in MSM."

It's probably that BR is "lurking" on this blog (and over at ZH)... That's why he's skewed into thinking there's pessimism...

You guys don't see it, but BR tries to post comments here all the time, but I have author rights, and I delete all his comments as SPAM before they're ever published :-); October 13, 2010 at 10:17 AM
Anonymous said...: Karen @ 10:10

remember the golden rule- who has the gold rules-

short answer- she doesn't qualify w/ 10% down- so she's upset-

and probably has large deposits showing up on her bank statements which need to be explained-

whiners; October 13, 2010 at 10:18 AM
karen said...: XRT red..; October 13, 2010 at 10:21 AM
karen said...: check this chart: HYG:LQD !! Also, do not look at the aussie..; October 13, 2010 at 10:22 AM
karen said...: .66% .66% .55% (and I promise this is the last time i will post the % ups..); October 13, 2010 at 10:24 AM
CV said...: $VIX.X hit a 17 handle this morning...

It's agonizingly close to touching the WEEKLY lower BB's (as I indicated on my chart in the thread)...; October 13, 2010 at 10:25 AM
McFearless said...: "what does everyone think of this from the new Chief of the Consumer Protection Bureau?"

Well, ahab, I'm still wondering why this was set up in the first place. We already had one, was called the CPA.

As for Warren...just another goon:

"President Obama understands the importance of leveling the playing field again for families and creating protections that work not just for the wealthy or connected, but for every American."

so, Obama knows we need to level the playing field ahab....and how is he doing it? Well, for starters, he's going to make it easy for you to borrow. You have kids right? They going to college maybe? Well now you can take all the loans you need for their college education through that fat bitch Sallie Mae, send em off to NYU or Standford....and no matter if schools now understand they can raise tuition to the moon, you just get what you need from them.

And as the quote above implies...they are doing this "again" because the last time we did this with credit and gave everyone a home they couldn't afford and free-for-all access to credit cards....well it worked out so well.

Warren also said:

"The new consumer bureau is based on a pretty simple idea: people ought to be able to read their credit card and mortgage contracts and know the deal."

Guess the old CPA had more complex ideas. You know what though....little kid that I was when I bought a house at 25 years old...I could read the contract. I got my first credit card from MBNA while in college, I understood that too.

Oddly enough, Warren likes to tell the story of her gram who got wiped out during the GD when she was in her 60's...the rest of the story goes that she didn't wait around for the government to help her, her solution was to try and get out of her problems herself.; October 13, 2010 at 10:26 AM
McFearless said...: C,

Barry tries to post here? Really?; October 13, 2010 at 10:28 AM
karen said...: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/WalMart-CEO-says-he-expects-apf-2310442295.html?x=0; October 13, 2010 at 10:30 AM
karen said...: great movie review! The economic crisis was an 'inside job'

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/10/12/AR2010101203723.html; October 13, 2010 at 10:33 AM
Anonymous said...: fwiw-

I'd like to see a post or two from BR

b22-

I guess I was questioning her tough talk; October 13, 2010 at 10:34 AM
karen said...: and for CV: http://www.businessinsider.com/white-house-insiders-feel-shellshocked-and-already-think-its-over-for-obama-2010-10; October 13, 2010 at 10:34 AM
McFearless said...: just remember what neely said a few weeks ago, not word for word, but close enough:

"the market should at least challenge and possibly exceed the April highs in between now and the end of the year. This period will be characterized by positive economic data making everyone believe that it is safe to get back in. This will be the final leg of the rally that started in March 2009."

que up the positive sales comments from Wal Mart....; October 13, 2010 at 10:35 AM
McFearless said...: "I guess I was questioning her tough talk"

ROR, yeah, she's a real hard ass.; October 13, 2010 at 10:35 AM
McFearless said...: McHappy,

ok, just realized there is a new theorist out...I'll read it today, I'm sure he does make his case very well in there, he always does, he's smart, but that won't make the counts any less wrong imo.; October 13, 2010 at 10:37 AM
Leftback said...: XLF is lagging, which bank reports next? MS will be a stinker after LB whipped them in the fixed income market....; October 13, 2010 at 10:39 AM
McFearless said...: how come I can't get Karen's 9:21 link to work...I don't see a post at TBP where BR makes that quote.; October 13, 2010 at 10:39 AM
karen said...: 117 should have been resistance on SPY.. it'll be interesting to see if we sell off at the end of the day.. CMF on SPY is not supportive of the move from 104 to 118.. i would love to know how in heck this is happening really, HFT? just selling back and forth to each other?; October 13, 2010 at 10:41 AM
McFearless said...: I'm actually quite excited to see if we can get the April highs...I'll let you guys know if any clients fire me since I've been wrong by making them money in bonds instead. I have to imagine someone is going to bounce on me.; October 13, 2010 at 10:42 AM
Jennifer said...: Hi All,

My trading sucks -- failed to cash out at the right time and had some profits evaporate on me -- I hate that. Also, on hold for more than half an hour w/ the IRS for my little non profit Mom's group -- we need to file our return by Friday and the website isn't recognizing our TIN. I guess non-profits don't get much employee assistance from the IRS since the hold time here is absurd.; October 13, 2010 at 10:43 AM
karen said...: Ben, not surprised he removed it.. it was putting his foot in his mouth BIG TIME. in EXTREMELY poor taste..; October 13, 2010 at 10:43 AM
karen said...: yeah! he pulled it : ) well, i did manage to snatch that one quote.. too bad I didn't grab more.. I was truly taken aback by it.; October 13, 2010 at 10:45 AM
Jennifer said...: Karen -- I subscribe to the live feed of the eminis and the proprietary indicators at Evil Speculator. There have been huge divergences brewing all day yesterday and this morning, but the market keeps making new highs. Corey had a post up yesterday about market internals that was good too (post was good, internals are horrible.); October 13, 2010 at 10:45 AM
karen said...: LB, you are seeming as obnoxious as BR : ); October 13, 2010 at 10:45 AM
karen said...: Jenn, yes, i posted that Corey link yesterday.. sorry about your current dealings.. as long as the strep is under control you have that going for you!; October 13, 2010 at 10:47 AM
Jennifer said...: Yes -- thank goodness for antibiotics, they are all back at school now (and ready to catch the next bug.) We seem to have 2 seasons here, summer and flu.; October 13, 2010 at 10:49 AM
72bat said...: so much for editorial integrity.., br's stated policy is
4. Edits:
Once a post “sets,” there are no further edits or changes. I give myself an ~hour after posting to clean up grammar, spelling, etc. If a news event comes out that is the subject of the post, any further changes are frowned upon. In the event I come across something that simply MUST be changed due to an errant suppository accident, I will strike it out and leave it visible as the nearby text shows.

The gist of a post stays up forever.; October 13, 2010 at 10:50 AM
Anonymous said...: gotta roll; October 13, 2010 at 10:51 AM
wunsacon said...: I think E. Warren has a good understanding of our problems and would like to help the middle and lower class. (You don't spend part of your time researching the middle class's challenges if you're not interested in them.)

Can she accomplish anything in Washington with corporate MSM probably sniping at her? We'll see.

Most of DC and NYC "suck so bad" and are so aligned against us that she can't hurt us any worse.; October 13, 2010 at 10:51 AM
CV said...: @karen (10:34)

"Many officials worry, they say, that the best days of the Obama presidency are behind them. They talk about whether it is time to move on"...

ROR

They could have written that on January 21st, 2009 and still been accurate...; October 13, 2010 at 10:52 AM
McFearless said...: in further review of POMO it shows any quarter with at least 9 or more pomo's there is no instance of down and median return is 14.08%...of course, we dont' have any other time to measure POMO outside of this "generational bull market" so the data remains somewhat useless and perception remains crucial.; October 13, 2010 at 10:52 AM
72bat said...: jenn -
kids + school = disease vector; October 13, 2010 at 10:53 AM
wunsacon said...: I keep saying how Mexico looks like a "failed state". By now, you've all seen this:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/us_border_lake_shooting

Very sad.

We seem to be losing the war on drugs. And we're running out of money to pay for all our wars.; October 13, 2010 at 10:53 AM
Leftback said...: LB, you are seeming as obnoxious as BR : )

Only when the target is Morgan Stanley. I think they are fair game.

You must admit that with 5.5% and 2.75% forecasts, respectively, LB did open what you Americans would refer to as "a whole big can of whoop-ass" for those boys.

So to speak...; October 13, 2010 at 10:53 AM
Leftback said...: POMO = The PUMP = water flowing up hill.

You know what happens when they turn off the pump.; October 13, 2010 at 10:54 AM
karen said...: http://www.zerohedge.com/article/art-cashin-coming-hyperinflation; October 13, 2010 at 10:55 AM
McFearless said...: nothing he says shocks me anymore, Barry really likes to tell people he was right, I actually do think for him that it is more important to be right in the eyes of the public than it is to make money otherwise why bash those that have made more money than on has in the the S&P buy saying to buy bonds or gold.....can't have it both ways....those people made money and were right about what they said to buy, it's that easy.; October 13, 2010 at 10:58 AM
wunsacon said...: >> They could have written that on January 21st, 2009 and still been accurate...

LOL!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xCF19cBWb0I

(Me likee da studio version much better: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WfukfbfjIL4 ); October 13, 2010 at 10:58 AM
CV said...: @72bat

FWIW... Here's CV's policy on EVERYTHING (you'll find it under the dotted line)...

-------------------; October 13, 2010 at 11:01 AM
McFearless said...: I don't think POMO has any impact at all, it's people's perception about it that bids stocks up...that is the "cause", not the POMO itself, look how folks have bid up stocks just on the notion of QE2....if people were inclined to sell they would overwhelm the POMO, just like in August.

Also, this statement:

"You don't spend part of your time researching the middle class's challenges if you're not interested in them."

How about people that spend time researching the Middle Class's challenges, or any challenge for that matter, in order to profit from the knowledge?

Lets remember where the incentives are in this country.; October 13, 2010 at 11:02 AM
karen said...: BarCap Economics estimates that the size of the QE program is about $100bn / month and believes it is likely to be open-ended

Barcap: Year-end forecasts for 2 year and 10 yr Treasury yields are now 0.3% and 2.4%, respectively; October 13, 2010 at 11:02 AM
karen said...: Barclays saying $1trn #QE priced in by the market is appropriate for a 9.5% unemployment rate and 1% y/y CPI inflation by end of 2011

WTF!!; October 13, 2010 at 11:03 AM
McFearless said...: all, this chart is several weeks old but do keep an eye on this development:

http://lh6.ggpht.com/_APmrYvpA45s/TKga_hXTFMI/AAAAAAAAIxI/o19UFX2bCKM/s1600-h/COTNasdaq100%5B2%5D.png; October 13, 2010 at 11:05 AM
karen said...: something for the forensics..
This is the root of my intrigue here: JPM actually earned money (ie, they paid negative interest) on that line item under liabilities. They got paid to borrow money!

From the two tables, you can see that JPM got paid 28bps to "purchase" (borrow) Fed Funds, and "sold" (lent) Fed Funds at 92bps! That's a nice money printing machine!

http://fridayinvegas.blogspot.com/2010/10/jpm-earnings-earning-interest-on.html; October 13, 2010 at 11:06 AM
McFearless said...: and $ndx is over the april high, so EWI can kiss their charts goodbye on that one.; October 13, 2010 at 11:06 AM
karen said...: so, ben, is this a short covering melt up right now?; October 13, 2010 at 11:08 AM
McFearless said...: also, >90% of the S&P is above 50 day MA....this has been fairly bearish since late 07 when this happens....according to almanac

Monday before October expiration, Dow up 24 of 29.
October expiration day, Dow down 4 straight and 5 of last 6.; October 13, 2010 at 11:09 AM
McFearless said...: Karen,

I wouldn't describe it that way, I think buying panic would be better than short covering as an explanation. I do not believe the commercials are covering shorts, that trend has continued this past week, 6 stragiht weeks now commercials have also reduced exposure to S&P.; October 13, 2010 at 11:11 AM
karen said...: Convertbond

Bought the $TBT for a trade, Treasuries over bought near term. The size of #QE may disappoint, bazooka priced in.; October 13, 2010 at 11:11 AM
wunsacon said...: McFearless, to me, this video (which you might've already seen) sounded refreshing when I heard it (a couple of years ago):

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=akVL7QY0S8A

She titled her presentation "The Coming Collapse of the Middle Class". Who among the people you see on TV say things so bluntly?; October 13, 2010 at 11:12 AM
Jennifer said...: My tax dollars are clearly not at work in the IRS ... I've been on hold now for more than 1 hour. Thank goodness for speaker phone.; October 13, 2010 at 11:13 AM
Leftback said...: I am surprised at BR being hubristic. It's not smart for someone as visible as he is. This market is all about making money and being right only matters for as long as it takes to bring home the Wonga.

(Having said that, I have been right about bonds all year long, but it's not like I have been taunting others, like Jim Carrion of Mordant Scamley...)

:-)

LB was wrong this morning, should have stayed in TBT and out of QID. BUT it doesn't matter, I have tight stops. The point is this, I have NO NEED to hedge Tsys (I am out) but I do need to hedge equities now. I hope everyone sees the logic of this.; October 13, 2010 at 11:13 AM
McFearless said...: "Who among the people you see on TV say things so bluntly?"

Wunsacon, ok, you are right, I don't want to be too critical. I'll check the video out.; October 13, 2010 at 11:14 AM
CV said...: We need a catalyst - ROR; October 13, 2010 at 11:15 AM
McFearless said...: LB,

I meant to ask you....I don't know what Wonga is???; October 13, 2010 at 11:15 AM
McFearless said...: Jennifer,

you ever seen the computers they use at the IRS? You should hire a CPA, seriously.; October 13, 2010 at 11:15 AM
karen said...: ben!! have you ever heard of google! ?; October 13, 2010 at 11:17 AM
Leftback said...: Wonga = filthy lucre; October 13, 2010 at 11:17 AM
CV said...: You mean they don't use the abacus?; October 13, 2010 at 11:17 AM
CV said...: Oh no wait... That's the FED...; October 13, 2010 at 11:18 AM
Leftback said...: Karen, do you like to bring home the wonga?

Ben, don't confuse Wonga with Wanger. LOL !!; October 13, 2010 at 11:18 AM
CV said...: Here's OBAMA figuring out "tax cuts on the rich" with his supercomputer; October 13, 2010 at 11:20 AM
CV said...: http://www.toycornershop.co.uk/images/products/c24p408.jpg; October 13, 2010 at 11:20 AM
Jennifer said...: This is for my little neighborhood mom's group with an annual budget of $3,000. A CPA is not in our budget. Cheap wine and juice boxes take up almost the whole budget. And inflatable jumpy things.; October 13, 2010 at 11:22 AM
McFearless said...: just easier to ask Karen, plus, since I didn't know what it was....that might not be good to be googling at work.; October 13, 2010 at 11:23 AM
McFearless said...: You could probably find a decent CPA at a Jackson Hewitt that could prepare that return for you for a very low cost and the org will write the tax prep cost off anyway. Would probably save you some headaches, non-profits can get sticky, good luck.; October 13, 2010 at 11:24 AM
Leftback said...: Karen,

Can you comment on whether a girl like you would wear garments as small as those depicted in today's thread?; October 13, 2010 at 11:25 AM
karen said...: sorry, ben.. here is a better answer:

Etymology
From the Romany word wangar (coal); "coal" was also used as a slang term for money in England in the 18th and 19th century.; October 13, 2010 at 11:26 AM
Leftback said...: Cheap wine and inflatable jumpy things could be an irresistible combination, Jennifer.; October 13, 2010 at 11:27 AM
McFearless said...: wow, I'm going to start using wonga all the time now.....sweet.; October 13, 2010 at 11:28 AM
McFearless said...: I can never tell for sure but it looks like some pretty bearish action on the XLF options today.

thoughts?; October 13, 2010 at 11:28 AM
CV said...: How quaint...

From today's level on $SPX... (back to 1040)

- a "correction" of 23.6% takes you to 1150
- a "correction" of 32.2% takes you to 1130 (chart gap)
- a "correction" of 50.0% takes you to 1110 (chart gap & .009 fibo from 1220)
- a "correction" of 61.8% takes you to 1092 (chart gap & bottom part of 8/11 candle after FED minutes* on 8/10)

* http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20100810a.htm; October 13, 2010 at 11:29 AM
McFearless said...: man I want to short very badly but I have to have some self control....; October 13, 2010 at 11:30 AM
CV said...: "coal" was also used as a slang term for money in England in the 18th and 19th century"...

CV is thinking that coal WILL be used as money at some point in the future...

WVA will be the new Wall St. baby!; October 13, 2010 at 11:31 AM
karen said...: http://www.businessinsider.com/kyle-bass-australian-housing-bubble-2010-10; October 13, 2010 at 11:32 AM
McFearless said...: whats with that dead hobo guy going on and on about fundamentals.....cry me a river.

this is the guy claiming we had a "real market a few years ago"....guess from 03-07 it was about fundamentals, riiiiight....how about the 90's....

pffft.; October 13, 2010 at 11:33 AM
McFearless said...: Santa also brings the bad kids coal.; October 13, 2010 at 11:34 AM
Leftback said...: I want to short the banks badly but I am going to pick my spots.

When does the MS shit pile report?; October 13, 2010 at 11:34 AM
CV said...: @McF

I've seen enough... I'm adding shorts up here...

I'l still leave a little on the table if we manage to push up to say 1186 (which is the MONTHLY 3lb reversal), or even 1193 where there's a "sort of" gap...

But we're talking less than 1%... I can stomach that for a few days if Mr. Market makes me wait...; October 13, 2010 at 11:34 AM
CV said...: A KYLE BASS sighting!; October 13, 2010 at 11:35 AM
karen said...: WASHINGTON (AFP)--Americans have a negative opinion of the federal government, ranking it just below the banking sector and just above the oil and gas industry in terms of image, a poll released Wednesday showed.

Only 26% of Americans said they had a positive view of the U.S. federal government compared with nearly six in 10 who have a negative view, according to the survey by the Gallup polling organization and USA Today newspaper; October 13, 2010 at 11:36 AM
Jennifer said...: Ben -- thanks for the Jackson Hewitt suggestion. I hadn't considered the idea that someone would do it for free. Unfortunately, as the return is due on Friday, I'm probably out of time for this year, but maybe next year. It shouldn't be a big deal, we are eligible to file the 990-n e postcard, but the site won't take our EIN and let me log in. Oh well, if I have to put my 7 years of higher education to use and fill out the form it won't be so bad. I hope I'm still reading at an 8th grade level (isn't that where the tax forms are supposed to be?); October 13, 2010 at 11:40 AM
karen said...: if you look at a $bkx chart you'll see a neat little 1 month REV H&S...

what a nightmare.. spx 1220 here we come.; October 13, 2010 at 11:41 AM
McFearless said...: MS reports on 10/20, goldman on 10/19.; October 13, 2010 at 11:41 AM
72bat said...: ben -
a description of today's wonga
also, check out
www.wonga.com; October 13, 2010 at 11:44 AM
Jennifer said...: Santa brought my grandfather coal every Christmas...along with a long letter telling him exactly why he got the coal. It was hysterical. Once, a sooty boot was found hanging from the inside of the chimney. A prized family posession.; October 13, 2010 at 11:44 AM
Leftback said...: Long Granny Goldman, Short Mother Morgan is the play, no?

It will be interesting to see if peep sell the banks ahead of that or whether they pump them into the earnings.; October 13, 2010 at 11:45 AM
McFearless said...: interesting, it looks similar to the micro-lending at first glance.; October 13, 2010 at 11:45 AM
CV said...: "26% of Americans said they had a positive view of the U.S. federal government"

Hmmm... Let's see, there are about 15 million FEDERAL EMPLOYEES, (and then you have their families)... And I guess you'd have to throw in ex-Federal workers who are on full or partial pensions)...

yeah - I see how you could get to 26%; October 13, 2010 at 11:46 AM
Leftback said...: I think they are loan sharks !!

LB hopes everyone has lots of fun today, he is off to the airport.
Will be on the West Coast for a week, no posts but will send emails.
Perhaps the I-Man will be good enough to send on my REPORTS.

LB will be agog, wondering whether the attractive woman next to him at the sushi bar might actually be the fabulous KAREN....???; October 13, 2010 at 11:48 AM
McFearless said...: There were several VIX Sonar Reports over the last several months where Jamie mentioned that he saw large speculators coming in and selling XLF in the options pits, they even made mention of this 2-3 times in September. XLF has not rallied with the rest of the market, over $2 off it's April highs. So yes, watching them around earnings release should be interesting indeed.; October 13, 2010 at 11:48 AM
karen said...: check EWS...; October 13, 2010 at 11:54 AM
karen said...: eem likewise made a tidy little leap this today.. nice buy by Bruce on EWZ the other day..; October 13, 2010 at 11:56 AM
McFearless said...: here's one not to check which we mentioned over the summer...EXAS...it was 3 bucks back then, now it's 8.; October 13, 2010 at 11:56 AM
Leftback said...: We are long EEM, Karen.

Have a lovely day.
LB is late for the sky....; October 13, 2010 at 11:57 AM
karen said...: epi is the real EM winner today tho..; October 13, 2010 at 11:59 AM
karen said...: i'll keep my eyes out for you, LB : ); October 13, 2010 at 12:00 PM
prosciutto gristle said...: Kiss. Holy cow are THEY overrated.; October 13, 2010 at 12:11 PM
karen said...: well, i guess we will flat line until 2 when we get the treasury budget, that burst higher : )

the rest of the week's econ calendar can surely propel us into the 1200's, don't you think?; October 13, 2010 at 12:12 PM
arbitrage789 said...: the 1200's...?

Ye of little faith.

Try the 1300's.; October 13, 2010 at 12:14 PM
karen said...: Mortgage Backed Securities, anyone?

http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2010/10/12/a-look-inside-the-feds-balance-sheet-5/; October 13, 2010 at 12:14 PM
karen said...: actually, 1470 is the projection : ); October 13, 2010 at 12:15 PM
I-Man said...: Kiss sucks...

LB, of course, would be happy to pass along ye reports.

Remember ES 1174, like you remember the Alamo.

We have finally finished expanding on the 1min charts according to my fib ranges...

That should allow us to gather up some weak longs, late momentum players to trap, going into the slipe and slide after lunch.

Could still engineer a "pinnochio" up through this mornings highs, but should only serve to trap some more greedy bitches.

Long jalapeno bagel, new pot of coffee...

BTW, I had a vivid dream that I was in a relationship with Kim Kardashian... it was awesome, she actually wasnt that much of a loser.; October 13, 2010 at 12:22 PM
karen said...: the SPY number to beat is 120.89; October 13, 2010 at 12:32 PM
arbitrage789 said...: Kim Kardashian...

.... "W" magazine.; October 13, 2010 at 12:33 PM
karen said...: video! http://mrtopstep.com/2010/10/13/mr-topstep-intraday-charts-1013-not-a-short-left/; October 13, 2010 at 12:33 PM
karen said...: yikes.. talking dbl tops... 1184 will see some shorting i think..

"we are in nose bleed territory.."

"people think there is no risk in this market.."; October 13, 2010 at 12:36 PM
McFearless said...: not a short on the board...supports buying panic idea....not so much the excessive pessimism being spouted by others.; October 13, 2010 at 12:38 PM
arbitrage789 said...: If we make it all the way to 1220 without so much as a 3% correction, then the correction, when it does come, has got to be at least 6%, if not 8%.; October 13, 2010 at 12:41 PM
McFearless said...: DL,

and where do you get those rules from?

Also, by that same logic, we would break the 2009 lows given the nearly 2000% price appreciation in stocks during the secular bull market from 75-99, something tells me you don't believe that though.; October 13, 2010 at 12:43 PM
arbitrage789 said...: McF,

And what exactly is your prediction?; October 13, 2010 at 12:44 PM
McFearless said...: I think you are quite aware of what I think the markets will do in the next 5 years.

That said, I have a short term, intermediate, and long term view.

sound familiar?; October 13, 2010 at 12:46 PM
McFearless said...: I'm simply wondering if there is any basis at all for what you just said or if it's just an idea you have. So like I asked before....where did you get those rules from?; October 13, 2010 at 12:47 PM
arbitrage789 said...: Your argument is that if we make it all the way to 1220 without a 3% correction, then the correction, when it comes, will be far less than 6%. So what then is the prediction (consistent with that)...?; October 13, 2010 at 12:48 PM
CV said...: "Not a short left"

Another way of saying EVERYONE IS ON THE SAME SIDE OF THE TRADE...

That usually ends well, doesn't it?; October 13, 2010 at 12:50 PM
arbitrage789 said...: McF,

With respect to your 12:47, my point would be one that I have tried to make many times in the past, and it pertains to the question of who has the "burden of proof". The burden of setting forth a prediction, and then the burden of proving it. I believe that it should be a two-way street.; October 13, 2010 at 12:50 PM
McFearless said...: WTF are you talking about?; October 13, 2010 at 12:52 PM
AmenRa said...: This isn't natural. Market up economy down.; October 13, 2010 at 12:52 PM
karen said...: On June 5, 2008 the NASDAQ 100 hit a high of 2055.82 and then it dropped over 1000 points six months later.

And then ... on April 26, 2010 the NASDAQ 100 hit an intra-day high of 2059.42 and failed the "double resistance test" by closing at 2049.09. Just over two months later it had dropped 345 points.

So now it is October 13th. 2010 ... and the NASDAQ 100 will have its "triple resistance test" today

http://www.stocktiming.com/Wednesday-DailyMarketUpdate.htm; October 13, 2010 at 12:52 PM
karen said...: DL and Ben.. one of you is from Venus and the other Mars.. DL, are you actually female? LOL..

I freely admit I cannot understand men-speak.. or at least most men-speak.. : ); October 13, 2010 at 12:54 PM
McFearless said...: DL,

I'm mostly sitting out right now, I don't have a near term forecast, it's too mixed. I've made this fairly clear the last several weeks. I asked a really simple question here....wondering if you saw some data somewhere that shows if measured moves go X without an X decline then a larger decline of X typically follows. I could really care less about all this burden of proof nonsense, it was a basic question, now I know the answer, thanks.; October 13, 2010 at 12:54 PM
I-Man said...: If this third measured move "drive" off the morning low doesnt meet the target, then we have something to work with.

For YM, the first two drives were 59 pts.

The third should take us up to 11118 if we're still in expansion mode.; October 13, 2010 at 12:54 PM
karen said...: i'm trying to get some FAZ here just for a little fun.. i'm apparently a masochist as well as a nymph o nevermind!!; October 13, 2010 at 12:56 PM
McFearless said...: karen,

I thought my question was straightforward

"and where do you get those rules from"; October 13, 2010 at 12:56 PM
karen said...: someone tell me how the market can be up on foreclosure-gate! LOL.. this is the new sub-prime is contained..

http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2010/10/13/the-enormous-mortgage-bond-scandal/; October 13, 2010 at 12:58 PM
I-Man said...: Also, we're breaking the 2nd gann angle now...

support for the 3rd lines up at 11065, which is also the 38.2 of the move from the initial high to first gann angle support.

If we're gonna run through end of day, should be a massive reload at that 38.2, 11065...

Stay tuned.; October 13, 2010 at 12:59 PM
karen said...: MUST READ!!!

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/consumers-paying-off-debt-not-likely-2010-10-13; October 13, 2010 at 1:02 PM
McFearless said...: this video is getting a lot of play today all over:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1614271234&play=1; October 13, 2010 at 1:02 PM
arbitrage789 said...: Foreclosure-gate?

Obama can just recycle the TARP funds.; October 13, 2010 at 1:02 PM
karen said...: Ben @ 12:56, yes, that is how I understood your question.. LOL..; October 13, 2010 at 1:10 PM
McFearless said...: "Obama can just recycle the TARP funds"

bwahahahaha....I suppose the leverage of the securitized paper has been lost on some.

TARP.....tiny.; October 13, 2010 at 1:10 PM
karen said...: I didn't believe in Mtg Securitization!!! I found it shocking.. and I wondered how money could be made selling those effing pieces of paper with rates so low to begin with.. it would seem the yield would be dwindled down to nothing.. and how about when the collateral (house) got sold and resold!!

It was all just made up..; October 13, 2010 at 1:12 PM
McFearless said...: Karen,

it's not just mortgages,....this is what I mean when I say there is no actual money left...it's all debt/paper!

everyone just wanted a dancing partner.; October 13, 2010 at 1:13 PM
karen said...: HE JUST SAID IT! THIS IS POTENTIALLY A MARKET DESTROYING SITUATION..; October 13, 2010 at 1:13 PM
CV said...: @I-Man

Do you like GANNS (apples)?

How do like them GANNS? (apples)?

new chart in thread; October 13, 2010 at 1:13 PM
CV said...: @I-Man

But I know your trade timing is like milliseconds... :-); October 13, 2010 at 1:14 PM
I-Man said...: Damn CV!

Dont lose the forest amongst all the trees!

But I love it...

MOMOZ...; October 13, 2010 at 1:15 PM
I-Man said...: Its the same circle, 1min, 15min, 60min, daily, weekly, monthly, yearly, and back again...; October 13, 2010 at 1:16 PM
karen said...: Ben, exactly!! you are preaching to the choir with me.. (oops, someone just came to door and i completely lost my train of thot..) wonder what short positions i bot, lol..; October 13, 2010 at 1:26 PM
karen said...: another topstep video! our brian : )

http://mrtopstep.com/2010/10/13/brian-shepard-mr-topstep-trading-floor-market-report-hard-to-buy-the-highs/; October 13, 2010 at 1:31 PM
karen said...: "Rule book going out the window.." so there, DL, can make new rules for us : ); October 13, 2010 at 1:32 PM
mcHAPPY said...: There is still a tap around 1200. But I'm glad to see some of the comments about the mortgage mess. This is the silver bullet to the heart of the blood sucking vampire known as mark to fantasy accounting. The ponzi scheme works until the cash flow dries up.; October 13, 2010 at 1:32 PM
karen said...: fantastic! http://fridayinvegas.blogspot.com/2010/10/maxine-waters-just-write-it-off.html; October 13, 2010 at 1:33 PM
arbitrage789 said...: karen,

I never meant to imply that I have a "rule".; October 13, 2010 at 1:34 PM
karen said...: zerohedge

Fed announces 5 Day Reverse Repo operation. Operation to close at 1:45. Money taken out of system; October 13, 2010 at 1:34 PM
CV said...: Can someone please remind me again why CV's idea to buy silver coins this summer was an idiot idea?; October 13, 2010 at 1:36 PM
karen said...: that seinfeld clip is billiant!

DL, i want you to make some rules, in my favor, and enforce them please.. i know what you meant.. you were just sayn'; October 13, 2010 at 1:36 PM
karen said...: Really, i wanted to fix my typos but hit 'post' to soon.. for some reason, i am overwhelmed with energy and enthusiasm..; October 13, 2010 at 1:37 PM
karen said...: another great look under the covers:

http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2010/10/csx-csx-confirms-many-themes.html; October 13, 2010 at 1:39 PM
arbitrage789 said...: Karen,

Rules in your favor?

Are there any in your disfavor?; October 13, 2010 at 1:39 PM
72bat said...: k @ 1:13
HE JUST SAID IT! THIS IS POTENTIALLY A MARKET DESTROYING SITUATION..

and srs & drv hit all time lows. i kno, right?*
(* is this correct usage?); October 13, 2010 at 1:41 PM
karen said...: Oh, so many!! The rule that allowed DRV to dip to 20.10 today, a new 52 week low, is not in my favor, for instance.; October 13, 2010 at 1:42 PM
subbing for lb said...: "another great look under the covers"
and i bet you do; October 13, 2010 at 1:43 PM
McFearless said...: I skimmed the EWT, this was the one thing I liked:

"The herd's logic is now cemented; It's a win-win situation; if the economy expands, stocks will go up; if the economy contracts, the Fed will launch QE2 and stocks will go up. You can't lose."......

sort of hard to disagree with this observation, especially considering many have called this rationalization "wisdom" rather than herd behaivor.; October 13, 2010 at 1:43 PM
karen said...: If you build it, they won't come.. Einhorn.

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a3D5lNFVohLE; October 13, 2010 at 1:44 PM
72bat said...: mchappy
"This is the silver bullet to the heart of the blood sucking vampire known as mark to fantasy "
can't wait to see what kind of legislative ex post facto contortionist act they come up with to try to rectify the banksta's f*ck-up and make the banks whole at everyone's else's expense.; October 13, 2010 at 1:48 PM
karen said...: http://www.zerohedge.com/article/bernanke’s-conflict-interest

For the record, the annual cost to the Fed assuming a Federal Funds rate rise at some point (keep in mind that we were at 5.5% just three years ago):

Annual loss at:
3.5% = $24b
4.5% = $56b
5.5% = $88b; October 13, 2010 at 1:48 PM

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Morning Audibles 10.13.10

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