TRADERS ANONYMOUS: AmenRa's Corner

AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection.

Creditcane™: My first cousin is named Foreclosure Felon.

SPX
Bullish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Above all SMA's. Above 1177.84 (the .0344 fibo from high). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1165.15). QE2infinity (aka the beginning of the end).

DXY
Bearish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still below its 76.4% retrace at 77.60. Also below 78.41 (.0557 from low). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 77.39).

VIX
Bullish long day (also bullish thrusting). Midpoint below EMA(10). Below weekly 3LB mid and monthly 3LB mid. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 21.21). Still hanging out in the "no fear" zone (yeah right).

GOLD
Bullish long day. Way above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Closed above new 0% retrace (time for another 0%). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1340.30).

EURUSD
Bullish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Held its 61.8% retrace at 1.3899. Above all SMA's. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1.3772).

JNK
Bullish long day. Above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Closed back above the 100% retrace. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 40.01).

10YR YIELD
Bearish short day (failed to close gap). The 0.0% fibo retrace at 23.59 has held. Still below the weekly 3LB mid (27.60) and all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 24.56).

DJ TRANS AVG
Bullish long day (quit setting the hanging men free). Holding above the upper trend line and all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 4583.57).

CRB
Spinning top day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Above all SMA's. Held the Gann 1x1. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 295.11).

XLF
Spinning top day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Failed to close above SMA(144)---see Aug 3rd. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 14.89).

400 comments:

«Oldest ‹Older 1 – 200 of 400 Newer› Newest»

Andy T said...: Sweet day. Love gettting stopped right of the gates. Lost about 6 S&P points...so really just a speed bump. I'm still holding the 50% short. I hate the "shape" of this whole advance and am pretty friggin' bearish. This is a little bit undisciplined, but I'm just not going to cover the short at this point. I don't mind taking a ride to 1220 or 1250. It would be a shitty 4-6% loss from here, but this position is a 6-12 month time horizon. So, what the hell...

That said, if we get any kind of good pull back from here, I'll probably take some off.

Bucky not helping the cause....; October 13, 2010 at 6:20 PM
Andy T said...: Anyone else watch that crazy lady Maxine Waters on CNBC today?

http://www.businessinsider.com/maxine-waters-cnbc-foreclosures-2010-10

Barry Ritholtz and Maxine Waters...on the same page here.; October 13, 2010 at 6:33 PM
AmenRa said...: Wal-Mart U.S. Sales Not Bouncing Back, Analyst Says

Oct. 12 (Bloomberg) -- Wal-Mart Stores Inc. may fail to turn its sales around by the holiday season as executives have forecast since the discount retailer has yet to lure customers back to stores, according to Cleveland Research Co.

Wal-Mart aimed to revive sales at U.S. stores open at least a year by returning items to shelves and revamping promotional displays. Those moves haven’t worked yet because of poor in- store execution and a lack of advertising to explain changes to customers, Cleveland’s Jeff Stinson said in a report today.

“Sales have drifted south again over the last couple months, and the outlook for the fourth quarter is now more questionable,” said the analyst, who is based in Cleveland. “We are less optimistic that the business will inflect favorably in time for the holidays.”

U.S. stores chief Bill Simon said in August he expected those moves to help reverse the trend in sales at U.S. stores open at least a year, which have slumped for five straight quarters. The retailer, the world’s biggest, faces increasing competition from other discounters, department and dollar stores as consumers struggle to emerge from the economic slump.

Wal-Mart spokesman Greg Rossiter declined to comment. Wal- Mart fell 69 cents, or 1.3 percent, to $53.92 at 4 p.m. in New York Stock Exchange composite trading. The shares have risen less than 1 percent this year.

If Walmart is doing bad then J6P is in bad shape.; October 13, 2010 at 6:40 PM
Anonymous said...: wow-

"What's the Hottest Commodity Now? Try the Entire Sector"- CNBC

a no brainer folks! just buy any ETF in any commodity- and watch the money roll in

on a more serious note- bot some SKF @ 18.29-

after reading a bit on Dimon's conference call this morning (and a possible 3 billion dollar impairment if delinquencies just remain flat) and the recent run up in BAC shorts-

I'm thinking that BAC could slop it up next week and maybe some other banks as well-

of course I guess I could just buy some cotton futures (a guaranteed winner); October 13, 2010 at 7:54 PM
CV said...: @Andy

TWSWB & Maxine Waters...

Birds of a feather...; October 13, 2010 at 8:06 PM
ben22 said...: D. Olick nicely stated today in the CNBC video in a round about way that Maxine Waters was again running her mouth without a clue as to what she was talking about.; October 13, 2010 at 8:25 PM
ben22 said...: here's the thing about the foreclosure issue, while it's getting a lot of press, it's the reaction to it that matters....doesn't seem to me that anyone is overly concerned, outside the fools paying attention to more than just apple stock, that is.

so yeah...no big deal seems to be the nets perception, put another way....it will work itself out.

Anyone see the reaction thus far another way?

I-man,

not that it matters, but I read a paper by Chris Whalen the week before last, his claim is that all four big banks in the US are actually insolvent.; October 13, 2010 at 8:29 PM
CV said...: Oh... I forgot to say...

CV likes "live home dogs"... so I'd prefer a play on MARSHALL (+5) tonight vs. UCF...

In a way, it's cheating because the game is already off and a few minutes into the 1st quarter... But I checked and Marshall is down 7-0... So I'm not really cheating...

I just forgot to mention this game before...

CV takes Marshall & the points for (1 unit); October 13, 2010 at 8:30 PM
CV said...: @ben22

"here's the thing about the foreclosure issue, while it's getting a lot of press, it's the reaction to it that matters"...

NO...HERE'S THE THING...

Fuck the financial markets... Those are just for a bunch of creeps and a**holes (like us)...

The BIGGEST offshoot of the foreclosure debacle?

Once again, it comes from where nobody expects... When I say NOBODY (I mean supposedly "smart" people, like THINKERS, SCHOLARS, ECONOMISTS, & the like - you know - all the IVORY TOWER dickwads that suppose to understand how everything works with their stack of university degrees)...

So what's the "hidden element"? The thing that NONE of these dickwads see?

It's PEGGY JOSEPH baby!

PEGGY JOSEPH "is" in fact J6P in this crapola... She's the "average person" just trying to put a couple of crumbs of bread on the table to feed the family...

There are a couple of types of PEGGY JOSEPHS actually...

There are types who are LOOKING for the free handout...

But then there are innumerate others who want to behave in the manner in which they were brought up, but now see these thieves running away with, and stealing everything the few meager scarps they ever accumulated... By doing so, these thieves have siphoned every last shred of morality that ever existed... So in the end they just say FUCK IT... If that's the way it's going to be, then I'll just be PEGGY JOSEPH myself...

Intellectuals come up with fancy terms for it like "moral hazard"... Great! If you're Erin "B-cups" Burnett, you can express it that way so that Barry Fucking Ritholtz can "fancy it" over a tea at the yacht club, then blog about it the next day so that he can satisfy his "kickin it with the homies" jones...

But basically... The GOVERNMENT and THE BANKS have gone too far in this episode... So now J6P has picked up a GATT himself...

Well... If you've ever watched RESERVOIR DOGS... You know how this scene is going to end...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FQ3ujsh_xC4; October 13, 2010 at 8:48 PM
AmenRa said...: Ben

The "no big deal" is the same move used during the subprime debacle. Eventually it morphs into a big deal.; October 13, 2010 at 8:52 PM
BuffaloT said...: Marshall sucks, and the home dog favorite especially on the weeknight games was money last couple years, not so much this year. CV - props on your last couple weeks - pretty strong. But here is the money play for tomorrow Kansas St. -2.5 And the money-line upset for Sat. Texas over Nebraska pays +310. I also have a crazy 7 game parlay that I have to find. 10 bucks pays around 940 or so.; October 13, 2010 at 8:55 PM
I-Man said...: @ DL

So do we call it a push?

It didnt necessarily close below 1174, but it aint close above it neither.; October 13, 2010 at 8:56 PM
I-Man said...: The grill was fired up, and the coals were looking nice though towards the close...

Was a shame to waste them.; October 13, 2010 at 8:57 PM
I-Man said...: And no bond wrap from Left, but if he sends me any over the next few days, I shall drop them on yall...; October 13, 2010 at 8:59 PM
Anonymous said...: c'mon I-man-

what you gonna do- grill a veggie burger?

so all those succulent juices fall on the coals and spread their flavor all over the soybean textured protein?

beware of soy- eat in small quantities if you must; October 13, 2010 at 9:05 PM
I-Man said...: @ B22McF1.618

I thought we were all clear on the insolvency issue already...

I mean, I'm no Reggie Middleton, but I've heard stories what lurks "off balance sheet".

Barbecued QSPE anyone?

Every one of those banks has their own skeleton, some more than others.

Ahh, the ghosts of wachovia, bear, merril, countrywide, et al. Shadows perhaps, but worthy of being brought into the light.

I think price discovery is one of those things like gravity.

And gravity rides everything. Good Modest Mouse tune also.

Apologizing for the lucid shotgun prose, already a few fresh hop ales deep. It is beautiful Indian Summer 72 degree niceness in the Willamette Valley this afternoon... had to skip the wednesday mow for pints by the river. Great decision.

AT, I feel your pain. This is certainly one of the white knuckle trades of all time. I cant even imagine holding overnight at this point.; October 13, 2010 at 9:09 PM
I-Man said...: Ahab, there are some great meatless "burger" things out there...

The place I went to earlier makes their own daily, and they have all kinds of good shit in them, and not a morsel of STP.

But all good. Eat that meat bro. No issue for the I.

I'd probably bonk a hatchery steelhead if I caught one and throw it in the smoker. Then I'd be a meat eater along with you for a few weeks.

And dude, I grow soybeans, and I friggin love em. Who doesnt like edamame?; October 13, 2010 at 9:16 PM
prosciutto gristle said...: Emerson, Lake & Palmer. Heart. Moody Blues. Bryan Adams. God help us.; October 13, 2010 at 9:19 PM
I-Man said...: I'll be a man and throw Rush in the Underrated category.; October 13, 2010 at 9:21 PM
I-Man said...: The Band is probably a bit underrated as well.

This may be blasphemy for some of you, but I'd have to say U2 is overrated.; October 13, 2010 at 9:24 PM
CV said...: @BuffaloT

In the house...

I fancy those expressions (no - 'fancy' sounds fucking gay)... I LIKE what sounds like a committment to a call...

Here's my SKINNY...

Kansas State (-3) at Kansas... It's just a RULE of mine that I don't bet a team that has 82% of the public money on them... Granted - the line has shifted from 2.5 to 3 (which means that VEGAS is "chasing" a little)... Probably bodes well for the visitor... But considering that I generally like HOME DOGS on weeknights... It would fall in to the NO BET category for me...

I liked MARSHALL tonight because the public was only on them to the tune of 30% (with no line movement)...

TEXAS-NEBRASKA - I've been looking for a spot to fade Nebraska all year and looked at this game...

I kind of agree with you... I'd LOVE to take the Longhorns in this spot (& 3-1 on the ML ain't too shabby)... Here's what I LIKE about that pick most...

- The public is on the Cornhuskers to the tune of 68%... MORE... It is one of the most highly "pre-wagered" games thus far (surpassing both the Ohio St./Wisconsin & Michigan/Iowa games by a 150% margin AND has DOUBLE the amount wagered than either ALABAMA or FLORIDA)... Bottom Line: This is a game of interest...

- Nebraska has kind of played a cupcake schedule... Sure, they beat Washington on the road, but Washington proved they're really not ALL THAT because they followed up the win vs. crappy USC with a loss vs. decent Arizona State at home... Bottom Line: Jake Locker should have come out last year, his stock is dropping, and so is Washington... which negates the impact of that win... Wh else have they beat... The "Hilltoppers" & "Vandals" at home? C'MON MAN...

- Plus, Nebraska may be in LOOK AHEAD mode here a little... They have to play #20 OK State, & #21 Missouri in the next 2 weeks... Frankly though... I'd be VERY worried about Ok State... But Missouri's undefeated year is a JOKE... They'll probably lose to Texas A&M this week and drop into oblivion...

- The Longhorns are on no LOOK AHEAD alert... They'll be focused for this game... The public has tossed them to the scrap heap because of the embarrasing loss to UCLA followed by the loss to OKLAHOMA... They haven't impressed me yet that they've "put it all together" yet this year... But I'll say... THIS MIGHT BE THE WEEK... And you can never count out a Max Brown team...

Bottom line? I LIKE that pick VERY MUCH (glad you brought it up - in fact)...

Anyway... Keep your picks coming... CV loves talking football... ESPECIALLY BECAUSE THESE MARKETS SUCK! :-); October 13, 2010 at 9:34 PM
ben22 said...: here is a chart:

T2112, NYSE percent of stocks 2 std dev above MA(40), the horizontal blue line is the all time high before year 2009 and now we’re very close.

http://lh5.ggpht.com/_APmrYvpA45s/TLZXKUGlwsI/AAAAAAAAI2M/IRao-a0MtBQ/s1600-h/T2112%5B2%5D.png

via Cobra.; October 13, 2010 at 9:37 PM
CV said...: @I-Man

edamame rocks!

I grow it too... (But CV like to eat them as an appetizer with BEER - before he chows down on a STEAK!)... So that's where we differ :-)...

I prefer to USE the BICUSPIDS that Jah gave me for their purpose (and that's to TEAR FLESH)... ror...; October 13, 2010 at 9:39 PM
ben22 said...: I-man,

wow, 100% agree with your 9:24.; October 13, 2010 at 9:39 PM
CV said...: @I-Man

RUSH & THE BAND = underrated (I agree); October 13, 2010 at 9:41 PM
CV said...: take a load off...; October 13, 2010 at 9:41 PM
prosciutto gristle said...: Yes, U2 is overrated, but we cut them slack for "New Years Day" and for the kinship with Brian Eno.

Pink Floyd is grossly overrated also, but they gave us "Dark Side of the Moon" so they are OK.

My beef is with the bands that are worthless and always have been...; October 13, 2010 at 9:44 PM
CV said...: You guys have been discussing this "overrated"/"underrated" thing for 2 days now...

Sorry... but I have to expand the definitions... It should be:

OVERRATED
UNDERRATED
NOT OVERRATED (this would basically include the bands that achieved a measure of success - but weren't, in fact, "crap" for having achieved that)...

NOT UNDERRATED would NEVER exist by that same criteria...

A NOT OVERRATED band might include the likes of VAN HALEN...; October 13, 2010 at 9:48 PM
CV said...: @pg (in the house again)...

I basically agree with you there...

I think a distinction of an OVERRATED band might be that when you look at their body of work, they had a lot of popular songs, but NEVER really changed the "culture" of music...

and UNDERRATED band might have had an influence on changing or altering the culture, but never made it the spotlight (in their time)...

A NOT UNDERRATED band might have actually altered the culture, and actually produced a few hits in the process...

That's where I'm going with this distinction...; October 13, 2010 at 9:54 PM
ben22 said...: yeah, music from big pink....one fantastic album

At one point I thought maybe Incubus was underrated, Make Yourself is really good, today I'm not so sure I'd say that about them.

He's not alive, but Nick Drake was underrated. Oasis was overrated. Patti Smith Horses....overrated. Captain Beefheart, Trout Mask Replica, no comment.

Radiohead, underrated. Sum 41 overrated.; October 13, 2010 at 9:56 PM
ben22 said...: I also think Wilco is overrated....

when I think of not overrated I would think of Van Morrison; October 13, 2010 at 10:01 PM
CV said...: I'm going to give you all and EXAMPLE of "changing culture" (using VAN HALEN)...

These are 1979... Van Halen was basically starting out doing COVERS ("You Really Got Me"/ KINKS & "Dance The Night Away"/ which had been done by various artists)...

But they brought these songs to a new generation with a new style & presentation... A presentation which was eventually copied & emulated for a generation...

There's a UNIQUENESS to that kind of effort...

You Really Got Me
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-A3GPkjHMvg

Dance The Night Away
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MEvpreZcAfI; October 13, 2010 at 10:06 PM
I-Man said...: I had a hard time with REM...

Part of me wanted them in the underrated camp, but they had some mainstream hits in the 90s.

Hip Hop:

KRS-One, underrated

Lil Wayne, overrated; October 13, 2010 at 10:07 PM
Anonymous said...: I-Man-

all good- vegetables are awesome- but soy- be careful-

eat in small quantities (like CV- as an appetizer)-

many sad stories of those who relied on it for a major source of protein

not overrated-

Warren Zevon, Dire Straits and Nirvana

underrated-

Tom Waits (only awesome); October 13, 2010 at 10:07 PM
arbitrage789 said...: I-Man @ 8:56

Call it a draw.; October 13, 2010 at 10:08 PM
Anonymous said...: Notorious BIG-

underrated; October 13, 2010 at 10:08 PM
I-Man said...: Van Halen(with David Lee Roth)... underrated; October 13, 2010 at 10:08 PM
I-Man said...: DUDE... 3 posts at the 10:08 timestamp...

I'm calling that (1008) as the SPX low.; October 13, 2010 at 10:11 PM
I-Man said...: Psych.; October 13, 2010 at 10:11 PM
Anonymous said...: overrated-

Pearl Jam

underrated-

Alice in Chains

and beyond overrated-

Rush

dude sounded like a woman- and their songs blow- and their from Canada

three strikes- your out; October 13, 2010 at 10:19 PM
CV said...: @I-Man (10:08)

WORD!

@ahab (10:08)

WORD! May he rest in peace...

CV presents... You MUST understand the definition (as described above), the body of work that CHANGED many efforts in the years thereafter...

THE CARS (underrated)

Bye Bye Love
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=msAcTMKMSKA&feature=related

Let's Go
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rpA3NVafsdo&feature=related

You're All I Got Tonight
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CEEUGaQTTQ0&feature=related

Let The Good Times Roll
v=GsuVrUicqlU&feature=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?

Just What I Neededhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9hwE0slNd3Y&feature=related

and of course...

Movin In Stereo
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6AfNhwhlrwY&feature=related

Hey... While you're at it...

CHEAP TRICK?????; October 13, 2010 at 10:26 PM
prosciutto gristle said...: Excellent call on Nick Drake! I hadn't thought of him because he never gets radio play. I hereby retract my nomination for Donovan!

Chris Bell was good too.

Francis Bacon (c. 1600) said the wisdom of human history is largely unknown to us, because everything of quality sinks to the bottom of the river of time.

To wit: The shit by Bad Company gets airplay ad nauseam while Nick Drake is only remembered for his posthumous appropriation in a VW commercial.

Dave Matthews is overrated.

Any thoughts on Zappa?; October 13, 2010 at 10:30 PM
ben22 said...: exactly, Van Halen, not Van Hagar

Pearl Jam...not overrated

Rush - super talented musicians, lyrics are deep, Neil Peart...come on man!; October 13, 2010 at 10:30 PM
Mel said...: I'll throw in here...Toto probably underrated...juvenile lyrics but great session musicians (and good friends back in the day)...CV, as to Up and Away...I was resident road manager for Marilyn McCoo and Billy Davis' mgmt co ;-)...I think that might make me the resident gray beard here.

This Paris concert (Toto) was hot:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fI_oKqV63ug; October 13, 2010 at 10:31 PM
ben22 said...: I have a Toto CD...greatest hits...it's got Africa, Rosanna, it's a good album.

andy McKee does an awesome acoustic of Africa if people haven't seen it.; October 13, 2010 at 10:32 PM
ben22 said...: Gram Parsons, underrated; October 13, 2010 at 10:33 PM
CV said...: CV <3's RUSH...

and ALSO... CV <3's the FOO FIGHTERS

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T1Ramu397UQ&feature=related

also with Jimmi Page...

Rock & Roll (live @ Wembley Stadium)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9WFw7rgPumY; October 13, 2010 at 10:36 PM
CV said...: You all BETTER FUCKING watch that last link...

Or else you FUCKING SUCK!; October 13, 2010 at 10:38 PM
prosciutto gristle said...: Alan Parsons Project? Is "I Robot" enough to forgive their later atrocities?; October 13, 2010 at 10:39 PM
CV said...: Maybe not UNDERRATED... but perhaps forgotten...

Don't forget Annie...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4gpNqB4dnT4; October 13, 2010 at 10:48 PM
CV said...: or Stevie...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7c3MsSdt9JQ&feature=related; October 13, 2010 at 10:51 PM
CV said...: Now...

I know all of you will laugh at this... But I present (only by the above definition of a unique GAME CHANGER), the following:...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZRENoPisFYk; October 13, 2010 at 10:53 PM
arbitrage789 said...: Delaware Senate debate:

http://tinyurl.com/2bha3ka; October 13, 2010 at 10:54 PM
AmenRa said...: KD on the dollar and yen freefall taking place: http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=169103; October 13, 2010 at 11:05 PM
Anonymous said...: devo!

of course- I was big into new wave-

Elvis Costello was and is a great songwriter

watched the foo fighter clips-

never been a foo fighters fan (although was and always be a big Nirvana fan)

where was Robert Plant? Was he on the guitar? He wasn't singing- that's for sure; October 13, 2010 at 11:09 PM
karen said...: How am I ever going to catch up here!!

You know, I thot we were an odd ball group.. went to a new dentist today.. he's thinking snipers need to take out certain members of congress.. he thinks the country has been hijacked, essentially (my words.) He's bot gold and a magnum(357?)! seriously! and his son is a financial programmer.. that is more pessimistic than anyone here..; October 13, 2010 at 11:16 PM
karen said...: well, clearly, i cannot catch up on the music discussion ; (

but I love Pink Floyd, not overrated, hardly rated, imo : (; October 13, 2010 at 11:21 PM
CV said...: @ahab

Dude... Bobby Plant was the vocalist...

That was Jinmmi Page & John Paul Jones on the guitar & bass...

They ROCKED tho...

C that's what I like... crews that can take a previous generation into the next... That's what I was referring to much earlier in this thread...; October 13, 2010 at 11:25 PM
AmenRa said...: DXY low 76.47
Gold high 1380.30
USDJPY low 81.20
Loonie high .9983 (aka par)
Aussie .9913 (aka par)

Might not make it to Nov 3rd; October 13, 2010 at 11:26 PM
karen said...: Thanks for the cheery news, AR..; October 13, 2010 at 11:28 PM
CV said...: @karen

You'd better do your best to catch up here...

2 things...

Your comments are welcome (because most here appreciate your musical tastes)...

Also... It's eefin 8:30 on the left coast... So unless LB has arrived there already (and is trying to schmooze you at the local sushi bar), YOU, my dear, have the freshest knowledge to offer to this bunch of degenerates...

Unless, of course, you start telling me about the ARKANSAS/AUBURN matchup...

Then... You'd be outta here! :-); October 13, 2010 at 11:30 PM
karen said...: This doesn't sound fun at all : (

Steve Jobs takes his anti-porn crusade very seriously. Not only does he forbid you from watching magazine porn on your iPad or playing porn games with your iPhone, but yesterday Apple finally got approval for a "communication control" that could stop you from texting descriptions of pornographic acts to your friends and neighbors.

http://nymag.com/daily/intel/2010/10/newest_apple_patent_a_device_f.html; October 13, 2010 at 11:31 PM
karen said...: Oh, he did arrive early!! LOL.. But he doesn't have a laptop and is NOT GETTING HIS HANDS ON MINE!; October 13, 2010 at 11:34 PM
AmenRa said...: Karen

Considering that porn is still insanely profitable why would he want to deny them access? Next up money shots all over iPads...; October 13, 2010 at 11:36 PM
AmenRa said...: Ooh EURUSD getting comfy over 1.40; October 13, 2010 at 11:37 PM
Anonymous said...: communication control" that could stop you from texting descriptions of pornographic acts to your friends and neighbors.

wow- so quick too- I mean it it's only been a few days since Favre proved that men can't be trusted- even w/ a phone; October 13, 2010 at 11:38 PM
Anonymous said...: CV-

that didn't sound or look like Robert Plant; October 13, 2010 at 11:42 PM
karen said...: i'm a complete naiveté on porn.. i've never seen a film or even a clip! any innuendo made on line, i have to google.. There is a movie out that i wanted to see, The Middlemen? or something.. anyway, sexting is another story..; October 13, 2010 at 11:43 PM
ben22 said...: it was taylor hawkins in that foo fighters clip. ff's drummer, used to play for alanis on jagged little pill.; October 13, 2010 at 11:45 PM
Anonymous said...: that was Grohl drumming w/ zeppelin; October 13, 2010 at 11:48 PM
arbitrage789 said...: K @ 11:31

This is claim 1 of the patent (US Pat 7814163). Seems innocuous enough:

1. A text-based communication device comprising: input circuitry that provides a user interface to enable a user to perform at least one of inputting and editing a text message;

transmission circuitry for sending the text message;

and processing circuitry for controlling the sending of the text message based on at least a portion of the text message and at least one message control condition, wherein the at least one message control condition comprises a rated message control condition corresponding to the user's designated language skill rating.; October 13, 2010 at 11:49 PM
Anonymous said...: c'mon Karen- you haven't seen the old classics-

Devil in Miss Jones

Deep Throat

Debbie does Dallas-

good acting- and stories-

actually they weren't too bad; October 13, 2010 at 11:51 PM
karen said...: DL.. sorry, i can make a lot more sense in 2 words..; October 13, 2010 at 11:52 PM
karen said...: Ahab, now I'm really embarrassed! i have heard the expression Debbie does Dallas from my sisters'-in-law for years and never knew it was a movie..; October 13, 2010 at 11:54 PM
ben22 said...: taylor hawkins was the singer.....; October 13, 2010 at 11:55 PM
Anonymous said...: b22-

that makes sense- dude was too young to be Robert Plant; October 13, 2010 at 11:58 PM
Anonymous said...: c'mom Karen- admit it- everyone has seen Deep Throat; October 13, 2010 at 11:58 PM
CV said...: @karen

2 words... make sense... Hmmm... like?

SEXT ME...

lol; October 13, 2010 at 11:59 PM
karen said...: I need to stop reading Headlines.. I should tune out all news, actually.

For instance, yahoo, "Asian stocks up on solid US corporate results" They can only mean those lowered, lowered, and lowered earnings forecasts such as Intel's.. that beat!; October 14, 2010 at 12:01 AM
ben22 said...: do parents have the talk with their kids.....about sexting?; October 14, 2010 at 12:02 AM
CV said...: I gotta say...

Cv was WAY before you all on the "sexting" thing...

U see... I lived in Europe from 1994-2005...

Europe was WAAAAAAAAAAAAAY ahead of America in mobile phone usage (still is)... and of course, was way ahead as far as SMS messages are concerned...

SEXTING seems to be a term (in the USA) that has come along in that past 2-3 years...

I can ASSURE you all... It was going on in EUROPE before Windows 95 ever passed it's BETA RELEASE...

I fucking swear... AMERICANS ARE CHUMPS (who think they know it all)...; October 14, 2010 at 12:04 AM
karen said...: Ahab, i have never seen Deep Throat..

CV, no.; October 14, 2010 at 12:07 AM
karen said...: CV, americans are way behind the curve! you aren't the only one that knows that, btw..; October 14, 2010 at 12:08 AM
CV said...: Oh no wait...

AMERICANS "import" SEXTING (more than a decade after the fucking Finns started it)...

But AMERICANS export SIV's (4 the past decade)...

We're a damned ADVANCED culture...; October 14, 2010 at 12:11 AM
Anonymous said...: speaking of sexting-

my daughter (12 years old)- had her Elementary School Art teacher comment about how beautiful she was on her facebook page-

I find this out after he (the art teacher) is being investigated for comments on other student's blogs-

so . . .I tell my daughter- it is very strange for an adult to be asked to be friended on a child's facebook-

so I think she understands now; October 14, 2010 at 12:11 AM
ben22 said...: hollow red bar on the tlt today....might be worth a rebound for a day or three.; October 14, 2010 at 12:11 AM
ben22 said...: ahab,
dude, I hope that turns out to be nothing, but that's sick...wtf?; October 14, 2010 at 12:14 AM
karen said...: ahab, that is a shocking to me.. i am so glad I am not Jennifer.. I just got under the wire with my two sons. barely. what are you doing with a baby of twelve, anyway?!; October 14, 2010 at 12:15 AM
CV said...: @ahab

CREEPY...

I swear... The MOST GRATEFUL thing I have in my life is NOT HAVING a teenage daughter...

If I had one... & knowing the world... I think I might slit my throat (or move to a desolate location)...; October 14, 2010 at 12:17 AM
Anonymous said...: b22-

as I told my daughter (Anna)- no adult should ever be asking to be your friend on facebook-

just like I told her when she was younger- no adult needs your help to do anything (such as search for a lost puppy)-

and if you're ever asked- run away and scream as loud as you can; October 14, 2010 at 12:19 AM
CV said...: Actually... I could NEVER slit my throat (in that instance)...

But it would be just as bad as I think I might be inclined to barricade my house in sandbags with sub-machine guns on the perimeter...

Of course, then, my TEENAGE DAUGHTER would hate me more than anyone else in the world...

So my life would, in that moment, be TOTALLY effed!; October 14, 2010 at 12:20 AM
Anonymous said...: "had her Elementary School Art teacher comment about how beautiful she was on her facebook page"

---

Obama thinks we need to spend trillions on education; October 14, 2010 at 12:23 AM
Anonymous said...: CV-

it's not all that bad- my daughter is much harder on me than my two boys were though-

I just yesterday had to call my ex-wife and tell her that I couldn't stand my daughter straightening her beautiful golden locks and that she was ruining her hair-

weird that it bothered me so much; October 14, 2010 at 12:25 AM
karen said...: well, ahab @ 12:19, you need to build her self-esteem at the same time.. it's not that adults know better! she just needs to be strong, be aware, have common sense, and know right from wrong..; October 14, 2010 at 12:26 AM
CV said...: @BuffaloT

CORRECT - Marshall fell to UCF (didn't cover)...

I'll reflect the (1 unit) loss in my weekend PICKS...

I still like your TEXAS call...

The KSU call will be a "no play" for me (but I'll watch it)...

Anyway... GOOD CALL!; October 14, 2010 at 12:28 AM
karen said...: ahab, as a sailor, how many tatts do you have??!! i'd be more upset about that and piercings than hair..; October 14, 2010 at 12:29 AM
CV said...: @karen

"it's not that adults know better! she just needs to be strong, be aware, have common sense, and know right from wrong..."

like karen... RIGHT? :-); October 14, 2010 at 12:30 AM
CV said...: Here's the AHAB/karen song of the night...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dMdaFVovbng&feature=related; October 14, 2010 at 12:32 AM
Anonymous said...: Karen-

my daughter- two older brothers- and me- trust me- she's not unwise to the world-

alright- gotta roll out to the sack- all have a good night; October 14, 2010 at 12:33 AM
CV said...: Now everyone has to decide if the Beach Boys were OVERRATED or UNDERRATED...; October 14, 2010 at 12:35 AM
karen said...: i would have to say OVERrated, tho perhaps they were before my time.. I would much rather listen to Enya's Orinoco Flow

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LTrk4X9ACtw&ob=av3n

or Christopher Cross:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VMkIuKXwmlU; October 14, 2010 at 12:43 AM
CV said...: FWIW-

Cv still doesn't think we're going to 1200 before we do a significant correction...

In fact... now that the COUNTDOWN is on (per my morning thread)... I think it's likely we see the 1100-1121 zone BEFORE any major new levels on the upside...

I'm in the minority with this view...

Every expert (and NOT SO EXPERT - just "jerks" that follow momentum flows & blog about it when they're not attending baseball games for teams that get swept by the YANKEES year after year) seems to think I'M the jerk...

Care to lay any REAL money on that?

Let me know when you want to do something other than kick it with the *** HAGS...; October 14, 2010 at 12:43 AM
arbitrage789 said...: CV @ 12:35

I was once dragged kicking and screaming to a Beach Boys concert at Madison Sq Garden.

(However, they've got a couple of decent songs).; October 14, 2010 at 12:48 AM
CV said...: @karen

LOL...

I won't argue with you there (on Christopher Cross)... But let me put it this way...

It's not like he CHANGED MUSIC or anything... But in a dopey way... I remember many a time that that music lifted me thru a night, or a moment... (I can't deny that)...

It coule EVEN BE WORSE to admit that this did the same sometimes (this is absolute embarassment)...

England Dan & John Ford Coley
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jxdsk-cFX-k; October 14, 2010 at 12:49 AM
karen said...: DL, arent you too young to go to a beach boys concert? i certainly was : ); October 14, 2010 at 12:49 AM
arbitrage789 said...: CV @ 12:43

If we can get a 4% correction beginning next week, I'll load up on the long side.; October 14, 2010 at 12:50 AM
karen said...: I meant werent you to o young...; October 14, 2010 at 12:50 AM
karen said...: PLS, do not get my cursing!! a 4% correction?! in your dreams!! my angelic mouth just exploded.. : ); October 14, 2010 at 12:51 AM
arbitrage789 said...: Karen @ 12:49

It would've been back in 1980.

I used to go to lots of rock concerts (in NY) in the 1970's. I was a very young pup back then.; October 14, 2010 at 12:51 AM
karen said...: LOL, sorry for the typos.. you can parse it.. ; ) my angelic mouth exploded in expletives, basically..; October 14, 2010 at 12:53 AM
CV said...: @karen

Come to think of it...

MEL might have appreciated that one because I think he worked with "Dan" Seals (the SEALS, from "Seals & Crofts")...

Mel... Am I right dude?

Seals & Crofts - We May Never Pass This Way Again
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QAH5zEtO0zU; October 14, 2010 at 12:55 AM
arbitrage789 said...: Your "angelic mouth".

Is that because Leftback refers to you as "angel"...?; October 14, 2010 at 12:55 AM
arbitrage789 said...: Bonne nuit à tous.; October 14, 2010 at 12:58 AM
CV said...: @DL

CV knows ALL Beach Boys songs (they were actually my musical heroes growing up)... So I'm going to go into my think tank and APPLY the best one to you...

Give me a minute...; October 14, 2010 at 12:58 AM
karen said...: CV.. oh my word! that is very sweet.. but you didn't have to admit that one!! it makes me cringe, sorry!! (but i get it!)

i love, Sarah Smile.. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NRgr9h2iO40

and one of my all time favorites, Midnight on the Bay..

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uel-mlFDy3E

(i actually sing this one to myself a lot.. in better key : ); October 14, 2010 at 1:04 AM
CV said...: @DL

This is you dude (your "Beach Boys" astrological animal)... THE SOUNDTRACK FINAL CREDITS ROLL to the soundtrack "AMERICAN GRAFFITI"...

Because you NEVER take it too tough... Dog Bless you for that! :-)

All Summer Long - The Beach Boys
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8jtThSIv26Q; October 14, 2010 at 1:05 AM
karen said...: CV, you are very old fashioned.. i was never into Seals & Crofts either.. and sorry to not play fan to Beach Boys.. i was in a different group!; October 14, 2010 at 1:08 AM
CV said...: @karen

OK... BLOGVIDEO JUKEBOX is now "off the air" for the evening...

If you're still not tired, there are anthology of linked songs on this thread to hopefully keep you entertained into the california evening...

On the EAST COAST... We need to say GOODNITE :-)...

I gotta come up with something for tomorrows thread... But it's tough (at this hour)... unless I've heard that GODZILLA is battling MOTHRA in the Tokyo streets...

Since I haven't heard anything like that (as of yet)... Mr. Market is leaving it to my wits...

I'm sure I'll come up with something... I ALWAYS DO...

The Show Must Go On...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XHwmuXF08cY; October 14, 2010 at 1:12 AM
karen said...: DL, these days, all the men in my life call me Angel.. it is unnerving.. Except for my husband who always lamented, "everyone thinks you are the angel and i am the bad guy".. as if I duped everyone.. i give up.. i am who i am..; October 14, 2010 at 1:15 AM
karen said...: fantastic closing musical ensemble for the evening..

CV, you are undoable : ); October 14, 2010 at 1:18 AM
CV said...: @karen

or lastly... (since I've brought up ELTON JOHN twice this week)...

NORMA
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uvux60fqNU8

DIANA
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zIJIBo9bJk0; October 14, 2010 at 1:23 AM
wunsacon said...: Van Halen = awesome

None other than Jimmy Page basically singled Eddie out for providing "something new":

From:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eddie_Van_Halen#.281978_-_1984.29_Roth_years

(1978 - 1984) Roth years
Van Halen in New Haven, 1977

Van Halen released a total of six albums: Van Halen (1978), Van Halen II (1979), Women and Children First (1980), Fair Warning (1981), Diver Down (1982), and 1984 (1984); however, the band had trouble working together as a cohesive unit; according to Gene Simmons' book Kiss and Make Up, Eddie Van Halen approached Simmons in 1982 about possibly joining Kiss, replacing Ace Frehley. According to Simmons, Eddie did so chiefly due to his personality conflicts with Roth.

Simmons and Alex persuaded Eddie to remain in Van Halen, while Kiss decided to replace Frehley with Vinnie Vincent, and shortly afterwards the band released the album 1984; which yielded the band's first #1 hit, "Jump". Other singles released from the album also sold well, particularly "Hot for Teacher", the video for which featured a skimpily dressed model playing the part of elementary school teacher and school-age boys portraying younger versions of the band members. The album peaked at #2 on the Billboard charts, behind Thriller by Michael Jackson, on which Eddie also played.

Jimmy Page said at the time: "For my money, Eddie Van Halen was the first significant new kid on the block. Very dazzling".[6]; October 14, 2010 at 1:28 AM
karen said...: CV, I didn't even know that Elton John did that tribute for Diana.. fascinating.. thanks for that comparison.

You are always educating me on some level or another.. : ); October 14, 2010 at 1:31 AM
karen said...: goodnight!!!; October 14, 2010 at 1:32 AM
wunsacon said...: Eddie concert solo:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OUrwa3TMSwE&feature=related; October 14, 2010 at 1:35 AM
BuffaloT said...: U2 Overrated
U3 and U6 WAY UNDERRATED; October 14, 2010 at 7:30 AM
ben22 said...: Beach Boys....def. NOT overrated
Pet Sounds....super sad and awesome all at the same time....that album is one of the best ever and had huge influence on a lot of other bands/artists.; October 14, 2010 at 8:05 AM
ben22 said...: I've always been a big Jeff Beck fan, thought this was a pretty amazing cover here:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZbwjmQgnhXQ

recording is not the greatest.; October 14, 2010 at 8:13 AM
Jennifer said...: Good morning all...today I get to enjoy the extremely rare and exquisite pleasure of puts left for dead risen from the graveyard of my portfolio. I've got a bunch of the APOL oct 42's...bought on some idea that the entire for-profit educational sector was screwed and then poorly managed...they hadn't gone to zero but the commission costs were going to cancel out whatever was left. Seems that they warned after hours, the stock is set to open down 20% this morning, and my formerly dead puts are now in the money, amazingly enough a whole day before expiration!!!; October 14, 2010 at 8:28 AM
ben22 said...: Jennifer,

nice, congrats to you!

The Coons v Christine Odonnell debate was pretty funny, she's so not prepared to take this job. I plan on trying to attend one of the two debates left and I'm going to try and ask them a direct question.

I want to know if the candidates can define the dollar for me and also tell me where money comes from. I'm guessing neither could answer, I know that Odonnell can't answer this question. I hope to make fools of both of them and then remind them that they have both said repeatedly that they will "tackle the debt" but how are they to do it if they don't know where money comes from....; October 14, 2010 at 8:33 AM
BuffaloT said...: OK CV Here is the 7 gamer for you.

Pod 1
Kansas St -2.5
Florida - 7
Texas +9.5

Pod 2
Oklahoma St. +3 (This one is only -105 for some reason)
Nevada -7
South Carolina -5

TCU + 29

I would play them three ways Pod 1, Pod 2, and then add TCU for #7. Also am playing Kansas St. solo and Texas over Nebraska Money Line pick. Cheers! Of to watch the markets from TBTF Wells Fargo where posting on blogger is prohibited!; October 14, 2010 at 8:41 AM
ben22 said...: there are 20 unfilled gaps from 106 SPY:

http://stockcharts.com/help/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:gaps_and_gap_analysi; October 14, 2010 at 8:44 AM
72bat said...: late to the music video party:
jeff beck! with tal!
'cause we ended as lovers introduced by bill murray at clapton's guitar crossroads festival. check out tal's solo!; October 14, 2010 at 8:45 AM
Anonymous said...: wow-

this is the thread that keeps on going and going-

claims WTE-

doesn't look like we'll ever turn the corner on that; October 14, 2010 at 8:46 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: Morning. It is another day in Tepper Paradise. Claims Unexpectly higher and the trade deficit also.

I will just say this for my two cents. When the craziness is over, whenever that is, and interest rates in the parties that matter, the US, EU, and Japan start to rise, that would be the time to sell all equities, the dog, and grandma too.

Had the flu so haven't been as alert as usual.; October 14, 2010 at 8:49 AM
72bat said...: ben -
from jesse, especially for you, just 'cos i know it drives you crazy :-}
"I am more cautious on short term positions here, and have had some short hedges on in the overnight, but deftly. It is important not to exhaust yourself expecting a trend change before it is ready to happen, and one cannot anticipate exogenous events by definition. Still, the time is ripe for one to have a significant effect should it occur.; October 14, 2010 at 8:49 AM
ben22 said...: 72,

oh thank you...pay close attention to that line sir

"one cannot anticipate exogenous events"

yet, magically, these guys know the outcome of the unpredictable exogenous events...iow, they can't tell you about the cause, but they certainly know the effect.

lmao.; October 14, 2010 at 9:01 AM
Anonymous said...: The U.S. trade deficit widened sharply in August, reflecting a surge in imports of consumer products as businesses restocked their shelves in hopes of a pickup in consumer demand.

nothing like a little hope; October 14, 2010 at 9:11 AM
Jennifer said...: I love it when Herb Greenberg talks down stocks I'm already short. Keep going Herb!!! Looks like its be mean to APOL day.; October 14, 2010 at 9:11 AM
ben22 said...: we are moving on to the next stage of public perception about QE2....the super mood excitement the fed will save us all from our sins phase is over.

that was good for a lot of points, maybe enough to get us to 1250...but a new mood is building and will take over the nets perception.; October 14, 2010 at 9:13 AM
Anonymous said...: Zero Hedge slays me with their headlines:

Trifecta Of Economic Horror: Trade Deficit Explodes To $46.3 Billion, PPI Rises Above Expectations As New Jobless Claims Surge

makes me want to rush out and buy some canned goods; October 14, 2010 at 9:15 AM
AmenRa said...: DXY low 76.26
USDJPY low 80.86 (damn)
Gold high 1388.10
EURUSD high 1.4115
Oil high 84.12
Silver high 24.91
Selling 2yr, 5yr, 10yr UST

What's the speed dial number for Katherine?; October 14, 2010 at 9:16 AM
ben22 said...: do you want to eat ahab....or do you want to make money

come on man; October 14, 2010 at 9:17 AM
Anonymous said...: b22-

I'm in agreement with you- the Fed is just talking and trying stuff-

now their's the hope (and a prayer)-

as if monetary policy by itself makes for a resurgent economy; October 14, 2010 at 9:17 AM
Anonymous said...: I see no reason why today can't end decisively in the red; October 14, 2010 at 9:20 AM
72bat said...: ben -
by definition, an exogenous event is one that affects the market/price/what-have-you, so, of course, one can only identify the event after the fact.; October 14, 2010 at 9:22 AM
72bat said...: team macro-man plays "c'mon man!"
Having played some of the spivvier metals some of TMM are taking their cash off the table since these charts look awfully CTA heavy. Similarly the price action in some previously dormant gold names gives us pause: sure it was a value proposition a month ago, but 40% in a month? Come on.; October 14, 2010 at 9:29 AM
karen said...: good morning!!! remember, buy the dip.. if we get one... better just buy the low of the day.. it's so easy now.; October 14, 2010 at 9:31 AM
Jennifer said...: Wow....I've never owned something that was up 2860% before...too bad it only translates to up 6% for me...still, sure beats the 100% loss I was banking on. Woo hoo! Off to meeting at school. Have a good day everyone!; October 14, 2010 at 9:35 AM
karen said...: carleygarner

People want to buy gold on credit cards...the party could be coming to an end. *Risk in futures!; October 14, 2010 at 9:37 AM
Anonymous said...: my SKF looking like a smart move so far this morning; October 14, 2010 at 9:43 AM
karen said...: from DR this morning: Who’s doing the buying in the equity market? It seems that be three principal buyers: pension funds, hedge funds and proprietary trading desks at the big commercial banks; October 14, 2010 at 9:47 AM
Anonymous said...: but Karen . . .isn't that always the case?; October 14, 2010 at 9:49 AM
karen said...: Hodge, COO of Pimco: "The market is already anticipating QE.. We have serious doubts.. in our view we are approaching the end of the bond market rally...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ixTM0aSK43c; October 14, 2010 at 9:49 AM
Anonymous said...: . . .and you had to go and keep CV up all night- delaying the much anticipated AM thread; October 14, 2010 at 9:50 AM
Anonymous said...: I'm logging in from the computer at the gym...

Sorry peeps... (no thread)... I was working on one early this morning, then got called in to sub an emergency class in the morning (and was struggling with blogger at the same time)...

@ karen

GOLD On credit cards... Ha! Funny thing is, the thread I was doing was about gold... I'll be back later peeps...

CV; October 14, 2010 at 9:52 AM
Anonymous said...: dammit CV- we're going to have to revisit your salary in your next blog host review; October 14, 2010 at 9:54 AM
karen said...: " The mortgages which the banks are holding on their books as income-producing assets at full face value are in effect either worthless or depreciated to some significant but unknown degree. If this fact were reflected in their balance sheets, all the big banks would all be insolvent."

http://www.oftwominds.com/blogoct10/foreclosure-collapse10-10.html; October 14, 2010 at 10:00 AM
Anonymous said...: fwiw-

I think BAC is going to slop it up next week; October 14, 2010 at 10:02 AM
Anonymous said...: and if there is any kind of inflation- doesn't that dampen the need for queezing2; October 14, 2010 at 10:05 AM
karen said...: FBR Capital Markets saying U.S. lenders will take a $2 billion hit for costs for every month that home seizures are delayed; October 14, 2010 at 10:07 AM
karen said...: Now, the NY Post reports that KKR and TPG are asking Buffett and other bondholders to take a severe haircut:

EFH wants Buffett and other unsecured bondholders to swap about $6 billion of debt in a subsidiary, known as TCEH, at a discount -- or roughly 70 percent of face value -- for debt that matures later. Last week, EFH persuaded some holders to swap $478 million of debt for $336 million of new debt.

http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2010/10/13/one-more-reason-for-buffett-to-hate-private-equity/

The article does not report Buffett's reply to the request, but quotes a bond trader as saying that Buffett is stuck in a "prisoner's dilemma."; October 14, 2010 at 10:09 AM
karen said...: http://dealbook.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/10/14/pity-the-fool-who-doesnt-invest-in-gold/; October 14, 2010 at 10:10 AM
karen said...: Especially for Ben:

http://www.businessinsider.com/is-the-deflation-trade-about-to-collapse-into-a-giant-putrid-sinkhole-2010-10; October 14, 2010 at 10:11 AM
karen said...: ahab, you can read that one, too : ); October 14, 2010 at 10:12 AM
McFearless said...: 72,

yes, that is correct, you can only identify the event after the fact, yet my statement is still correct. I didn't read Jesse's post so lets use Jeremy Siegal as an example. He sold his books in the 90's claiming you could "buy stocks for the long run" In March 2004 he was quoted as telling USA today "clearly, the risk of terror is the major reason why the markets have come down. We can't quantify these risks; it's not like flipping a coin and knowing your odds are 50-50 that an attack won't occur."

so what we know about anyone that says such things is that they accept the pyhsics paradigm of external cause and effect with respect to the stock market, yet they cannot predict the cause part of the equation and therefore cannot predict stock prices. So our questions go like this:

1. If one can't predict the causes how can one write a book predicting the effects?

2. The second and more important question is this; Is there any evidence that dramatic news events which make headlines are causal to stock market movement?

Via EWT, here are the key differences between the EMH (Economic) Model and the WP (Socionomic) Model, curious which make more sense to the group:

EMH Model
1. Objective, conscious, rational decisions to maximize utility determine financial values.
2. Financial markets are random
3. Financial markets are unpredictable.
4. Financial markets "tend toward equilibrium" and "rever to the mean."
5. Investors in financial markes typically use information to reason.
6. Investors' decisions are based on knowledge and certainty.
7. Changing events presage changes in the values of associated financial instruments.
8. Economic principles govern finance.

Scoionomic Model:
1. Subjective, unconscious, pre-rational impulses to herd determine financial values.
2. Financial markets are patterned.
3. financial markets are probabilistically predictable.
4. Financial markets are dynamic and do not revert to anything.
5. Investors in financial markets typically use information to rationalize emotional imperatives.
6. Investors' decisions are fraught with ignorance and uncertainty.
7. Changing values of financial instruments presage changes in associated events.
8. Socionomic principles govern finance.; October 14, 2010 at 10:13 AM
karen said...: "I am being a tad tongue in cheek when I say all economic data is to be immediately ignored since nothing matters in a world of global liquidity tsunami but even I am taken aback on how NONE of the data matters. This morning PPI came in hot on the headline number (that includes food and energy) - 0.4%. That is 4.8% annualized. Food alone rose 1.2%... in 1 month; feel free to annualize that. I wrote about what Bernanke is going to do to food prices a month ago - I am just shocked the input prices have reacted like this already - corn up some 17% in 3 days... nice!"

http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2010/10/china-september-trade-weakens-across.html; October 14, 2010 at 10:14 AM
McFearless said...: sorry Karen, I'm not very compelled by anyone crying about the coming inflation by stating..."just look at commodities, it's obvious"

I suppose that

1. they do not at all realize how large the CREDIT side of the ledger is, sort of like all the peeps claiming companies are flush with cash yet ignore the record levels of debt

and

2. they slept through 2008, remember, the deflation trade was dead then as well

further....the deflation trade is in fact no trade at all, it's called staying out and staying safe, but hey, everyone is trying to make money.; October 14, 2010 at 10:17 AM
72bat said...: further on in charles hugh smith's "The Coming Collapse of the Real Estate Market"

"Either there is due process of law or you have a kleptocracy/"banana republic" oligarchy. At present, that is the decision we face as a nation. If the banking Elites and their partners in the Central State (Fed and Treasury) are allowed to "win" and gut the property laws of the states, then the U.S.A. will be revealed as a kleptocracy/"banana republic" oligarchy.

"If state laws are upheld, then the "too big to fail" banks are insolvent and they will fail. Then the question of kleptocracy arises once again: will the banks be allowed to fail as per Classic Capitalism, that is, their owners and managers will have to absorb the losses of that bankruptcy/failure, or will the Central State use its powers to collect taxes and cover the private losses of the Bank/Financial Power Elites? Privatizing profits and socializing losses has been the entire game plan since the global house of cards collapsed in 2008."
(my bold added, as if emphasis was needed); October 14, 2010 at 10:22 AM
McFearless said...: Mr. T on Bloom!?

yeah, probably not any kind of sentiment to pay attention to.

Mr. T looks good.; October 14, 2010 at 10:23 AM
karen said...: Guy Who Predicted Dow 5,000 Gives Embarrassing Explanation For Why He Blew It http://read.bi/aayai2; October 14, 2010 at 10:28 AM
karen said...: Yes, I just watched the Mr T video.. cute fellow!; October 14, 2010 at 10:29 AM
karen said...: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/10/paulson-waited-to-allow-gs-unwind/; October 14, 2010 at 10:33 AM
karen said...: Bank of America Corp. (BAC) may move to lower all of its 30-year mortgage rates in the Las Vegas area to 3.5%, Fox Business News reported Thursday, citing people involved in the mortgage modification process. All rates on 30-year mortgages would be cut unilaterally to 3.5%, the report said. The move would involve fixed-principal interest on 30-year rates and not a principal reduction. Bank of America was unavailable for comment.; October 14, 2010 at 10:35 AM
karen said...: Here's Why It Looked Like We Had A Recovery, And Why That's Now Crumbling

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/new-america-foundation-on-the-recovery-2010-10#ixzz12LOJxtmh; October 14, 2010 at 10:36 AM
Anonymous said...: anything but a principal reduction-

that way they can carry the property at full value-

and keep the folks in their underwater homes as debt slaves; October 14, 2010 at 10:38 AM
McFearless said...: Karen,

why are you linking articles by Joe Weisenthal?

I liken him to the people that make a living discussing celebrities lives, JW just talks about everyone elses calls, seems his claim to fame is to point out when someone has been wrong, I think one of his recents was a hit piece on Meredith Whitney. Pretty easy to point out everyone's wrong calls when you make no calls of your own.

sorry, he's a tool.; October 14, 2010 at 10:38 AM
McFearless said...: so if they do a fixed 3.5% for people in Vegas what do they do with everyone else? What do the other banks do?

does this apply to everyone, or just the people that can't service or are underwater, does it apply to all the rentals bought in Vegas during the bubble?; October 14, 2010 at 10:40 AM
karen said...: hey, you are right! he was the one behind that MW article, i hate him.. : )

actually, i thot the last line was funny.."he's now fully invested in inflation assets (like everyone else now).."; October 14, 2010 at 10:40 AM
I-Man said...: That dude is a day late, and a dollar short on that trade.; October 14, 2010 at 10:44 AM
karen said...: that BAC article originated at foxbusiness.com .. i posted the dowjones blurb.. i am just in shock today.. serious shock..

all the most unimaginable, unfathomable events ARE HAPPENING and the market continues higher..

makes me feel like a complete fool for not being mortgaged and indebted to the hilt as it seems i'd be let off the hook.. and we wonder why retail has held up..; October 14, 2010 at 10:45 AM
Anonymous said...: why 3.5%?

why not 2.5% or 1.5%- stretch it out to 100 years-

and really drop those payments-

serfdom- a system who's time has come and gone and come back again; October 14, 2010 at 10:46 AM
I-Man said...: I guess I should call and try to get a lower rate on my 30yr fixed.

I think I'm at 6%... think I could get 4?; October 14, 2010 at 10:46 AM
karen said...: and now we have YHOO up on buyout rumors.. i can hardly take this anymore, but felt better after reading this:

http://www.crossingwallstreet.com/archives/2010/10/yahoo-jumps-as-the-stock-is-on-the-market.html; October 14, 2010 at 10:48 AM
Anonymous said...: and we wonder why retail has held up..

BR would have a bone to pick w/ you w/ that statement; October 14, 2010 at 10:48 AM
karen said...: I-Man: Average rate for 30-year mortgages falls to 4.19 percent, lowest level in decades http://bit.ly/aJJNjr; October 14, 2010 at 10:49 AM
McFearless said...: guys like him are always late, nowhere to be found at the bottom, out in full force at the top to tell everyone how dumb they are and how smart he is.; October 14, 2010 at 10:50 AM
karen said...: ahab, i know, i know.. it really is my opinion, tho..; October 14, 2010 at 10:50 AM
Anonymous said...: I-Man-

call your current servicer- they usually have call centers to handle folks who want to refi-

hopefully it's not BAC- nightmare- you'll be lucky if it closes in 3 months; October 14, 2010 at 10:50 AM
McFearless said...: yahoo, lol, didn't we go through this already...lemme guess, Carl Ichan is interested again.; October 14, 2010 at 10:50 AM
karen said...: dollar (or uup) at low of day..22.19

ben, remember when we were talking about uup at least 1.5pts higher and saying it had 22 all over it??; October 14, 2010 at 10:51 AM
karen said...: http://www.businessinsider.com/dependence-on-government-rising-2010-10

add the equity market to that chart..; October 14, 2010 at 10:53 AM
McFearless said...: karen,

I'm thinking about getting long and short, I doubt I have to say which I'm doing where.

look at this move up all choppy and shit looking, that's not impulsive.

wave analysis aside, the bearish warning signs are slowly starting to outweight the bullish stuff in the charts, at least near term, I still worry we just consolidate to set up a launch pad for an assault on 1200-1250.

I'm having serious performance anxiety over not making enough money for my clients, I met with a client last night up 8% on the year and I felt bad like I hadn't done enough, could have been long for this move for him...this is when career risk can really get the best of you.; October 14, 2010 at 10:54 AM
Anonymous said...: b22-

bet it all on black- if it doesn't work out- shrug your shoulders and say it couldn't have been foreseen; October 14, 2010 at 10:56 AM
Mel said...: CV@ 12:55a.m.

Yes, both...and many others besides...some mentioned last night. It's a bit OT at the moment and the short story's a couple of paragraphs...so I'll catch you up after the close.; October 14, 2010 at 11:01 AM
McFearless said...: ahab,

ha, yeah, I tend to take the blame when I get it wrong.; October 14, 2010 at 11:01 AM
McFearless said...: I suppose I should learn better from all the big time money managers and just say nobody saw it coming like they do.; October 14, 2010 at 11:01 AM
Shortcrone said...: McF, I feel like the proverbial deer in the headlights. How do you in good faith position your clients, who depend on their portfolios for everything, for "growth", knowing that everything is likely to vanish in a grand poof? I don't know why they have stood with me for the last year. I feel like packing it in and finding a way to make a living that doesn't depend on pretending that the corrupt market is trustworthy.; October 14, 2010 at 11:03 AM
Anonymous said...: b22-

if the market drops 10% but your client's accounts are only down 9%-

all you need say- "I beat the S%P- what more do you want?"; October 14, 2010 at 11:04 AM
Shortcrone said...: Hey-maybe I can start my new career here: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Robosigners-Mortgage-apf-382327091.html; October 14, 2010 at 11:05 AM

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