Morning Audibles

On my thread of October 5th... I published a chart of a pattern that I felt was emerging, and worth considering... That morning, the market gapped up in a huge way (& naturally explained away that it was due to comments from THE BEARD that the Fed's actions were helping the economy)... In other realms, it was explained by ex'Mouseketeers doing their version of Beachball Blanket Bingo...

As for Bernanke (taking the baton from Tepper)... Well, sure there hoss... Feds actions are surely helping commodity prices (at the expense of the dollar)... They're helping the PD's... But they're not helping J6P too much... Anyway, for a hoot, here's my thread from that day...

http://traders-anonymous.blogspot.com/2010/10/morning-audibles-10509.html

Buried at the bottom of that thread (that nobody reads because it causes headaches), was a little "theory" I was working on... It seemed to me that the market was in STALL mode... That the ever reaching upwards prices were a product of TIME, rather than PRICE... That what the market was actually looking for was to move beyond certain momentum indicators before it seriously wanted to entertain any sort of meaningful correction...

Here was my chart... And the annotations from that day (or you can take the scenic route, and search back for the thread):

Plain as day, is the suggestion that we might be looking for 12 days of TIME to basically shuffle the moviola off the left side of the page...

12 days later...

Here we are... And here's what the chart looks like (updated)...

There happen to be some other "discovered" elements that fit nicely into the pattern that I've since discovered... Those include:

- The ability to place FIBO markers in the chart (based on the eventual HIGH)
- The fact that that HIGH actually came at the MONTHLY 3LB reversal level of 1186 (very close)
- The "look" of the RSI divergence waves
- The "look" of new wedge patterns
- The # of days trading above or below the new wedge patterns
- The fact that October 19th emerged as a 1.618 extension from the April 26th High to the July 1st low...

and other things...

What does this all tell me?

Well... FRANKLY nothing more than what it is... But the patterns do, 12 days later, still conform to a fairly tight (and perhaps TRADEABLE) range to observe, or use as guideposts...

What am I expecting?

Yesterday, in the comment section, I'd said that today (WEDNESDAY) is a POMO day... I don't want to get into the discussion of whether POMO days go up or down (net-net)... But I did put a chart up about POMO yesterday that shows the effect... over time...

So let's say for s**ts & giggles that, at minimum, POMO has some "mitigating" influence... If you're willing to make that leap, my premise could be that the market makes a vain attempt (today) to regroup from yesterdays bloodbath (helped along by POMO)... But when those operations are over, and/or BEFORE they're over as the bots figure out it's futile, then the short term trend that was started yesterday may resume...

At this point, I'm anticipating a conclusion to arrive somewhere around the tip of that UNFINISHED triangle (around 1130), but I'm not going to stick my neck out for exact numbers... Timeframe? By Friday... We'll see what happens from there (or - if this view is even right AT ALL)...

In the end... It's all just my explanation as to why I've been STANDING AROUND for most of October, instead of getting wrapped up in elections, or, or or... WTFE

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AKKqLl_ZEEY&ob=av2e

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