Weekend Edition - Week 8 NFL & NCAA Picks

CV's PICKS - 2010 YTD Totals

2010 NCAA Picks: 24-11-2

2010 NCAA (unit picks differential): +8

NCAA 2010 Wager Total: (+$710)

NFL Picks: 44-40-4

NFL (unit picks differential): +4

NFL 2010 Wager Total: (+$10)

---

WEEK 8 NCAA PICKS (pick in BOLD CAPS)

PURDUE (+24) at Ohio State - 3 units

Ohio State 49 - Purdue 0 - Incorrect - (-$330)

Michigan State at NORTHWESTERN (+5.5) - 3 units

Michigan State 35 - Northwestern 27 - Incorrect - (-$330)

Oklahoma at MISSOURI (+3.5) - 3 units

Missouri 36 - Oklahoma 27 - Correct - (+$300)

ARIZONA STATE (+3) at Cal - 1 unit

Cal 50 - Arizona State 17 - Incorrect - (-110) 

Air Force at TCU (-18.5) - 1 unit

TCU 38 - Air Force 7 - Correct - (+$100)

For the past two years I've "sucked" at picking college games, but this year I'm doing amazingly well... I can't really figure out why (as I haven't deviated all that much from using my tried and true "systems" that can generally keep me ahead of the vig by a single digit margin)... There is NO EXPLAINING my 24-11-2 count... This week, I'm going to put ther streak to a REAL TEST as I'm upping the "unit plays" on some selected games... Play the hot hand (as they say)...

My favorite "theme" right now is what I'd call the POST BCS "meltdown"... The BCS is a farce... NCAA needs to go to a playoff system (but the big schools are too greedy to do what the PUBLIC would like to see)... As result, you get the Ohio States & Oklahomas at the top of the list when the first BCS rankings come out... Two weeks ago I gave you Alabama (losing to South Carolina)... Last week, I served up Ohio State for you all (as they were EXPOSED at Wisconsin)... This week, it's Oklahoma's turn to get exposed (I hope)...

Basically, I'm FADING all highly ranked BIG CONFERENCE schools until karma proves that it should be Boise State & TCU in the top spots... Sooner or later, I'll get to Oregon as well, but they beat up on inept UCLA earlier this week... Unfortunately, the Boise State Broncos are on a BYE week (which means they'll probably drop clear out of the top 20 [as they seem to have to win 162-0 each week to maintain their ranking])...

Additional games of note (no "unit" plays) - results" Green = correct/Red = incorrect: CV would favor: Miami Hurricanes, Maryland, Ole Miss, Stanford

Week 8 NCAA Picks: 4-5-0

Week 8 unit pick differential: -3

Week 8 wager total: -$370

---

NFL Preview: CV will try to recoup from a HORRIBLE Week 7... Overall, I was 6-7-1 on "games", but I gave back all my hard fought for "unit pick" profits on the season with some tough beats - (losing a 5 unit pick on the TEXANS who didn't show up until the last 2 minutes, and the JAGUARS who didn't show up at all)...

Week 8 Injury Report (for FANTASY PLAYERS):

 WEEK 8 NFL 

BYE WEEK: (Detroit, Indy, New York Jets, Houston)

EARLY GAMES

Pittsburgh Steelers at Miami Dolphins (1:00 EST)

Line: Steelers by 3

I'm hoping the 3rd time will be the charm on this... I lost earlier with the Fins by taking them as a live home dog versus the Patriots & Jets... This week, I'm going to go with them upending the Steelers (who are kind of in a soft spot here now that the "Ben is Back" hype has worn off, and they have upcoming games against the Saints, Patriots, & division rival Bengals)...

They [Steelers] let fucking Colt McCoy (with no running game) throw for 270 yards against them at Heinz Field last week... They were LUCKY to cover (and almost turned a HORRIBLE week for me, into an absolute ARMAGEDDON week)...

Mike Tomlin doesn't have a very good record at covering short lines as a road favorite... EASY MONEY, here, Steeler Nation?... Might not be so easy... DOLPHINS for (4 units) 

Cincinnati Bengals at Atlanta Falcons (1:00 EST)

Line: Falcons by 3.5

The Bengals blow... Their defense can't get any sacks or intercept balls, their offensive line can't stay in their stance, and their receivers "alligator arm" balls... What happened to the T.O/85 show that was supposed to light up the NFL this year?... I'll tell you what happened... Carson Palmer has lost his ability to throw a football... Frankly, I can't really blame TO or 85 all that much... The Bengals just aren't executing much on either side of the ball...

Here's a stat... The Bengals basically have to score 20 points to have any legitimate shot of winning a football game... The Falcons aren't WORLD BEATERS on defense, but they are vastly improved over last year... Also, on offense, Matty ICE is impressive in the Georgia Dome (as Michael Turner carrying the rock can help set up some nice play action)... Overall, the Falcons are a very balanced team that doesn't generally shoot itself in the foot... The Bengals are notorious for shooting themselves in the foot (they are like last years Ravens in this department)... Despite last weeks setback in Philly, I think Mike Smith has these Falcons (with a win already - on the road - against division rival Saints), believing they can make it to the post season... The Bengals, OTOH, are fading fast and must turn the tide soon... FALCONS for (2 units)...

Jacksonville Jaguars at Kansas City Chiefs (1:00 EST)

Line: Chiefs by 9

Did I already use the "they suck" line?... This is the quintessential definition of the Jacksonville Jaguars... At the beginning of this season, my "instincts" told me that they were horrible (the only team tht I thought was WORSE were the Buffalo Bills... So I go put a couple of units against them [Jags] in week 1 and what do they do? They go beat Denver at home... So I wait a couple of weeks and they get thru more or less as predicted (basically doing the unpredictable - which accomplishes nothing but PISSING PEOPLE OFF)... They managed a win versus Indy, but as I told you that week, they ALWAYS play Indy tight... I thought they would go back to SUCKING after that game (and said to FADE them against the Buffalo Bills - basically the WORST 2 teams in the NFL - It's like, the TITS OF THE CLASHONS - or, trying to pick from between reading the garbage of one author versus the other author in a "by committee" world)...

I mean, think about what it would be like at NBC (or another network) if they basically had a dozen dickheads in charge, and each one of them could decide, each week, what programming would air, what the "message" would be, what the logo would look like... Hell, even the fucking GAP only had a "hint" (by trial) that they were changing their logo the other week and they got "hate mail" for it... That explains how the JAGS play football... 

Anyway... Further to the point of INCONSISTENCY... I finally decide (CV - the benevolent one) to give the Jags a 2nd chance (last Monday Night) by laying multiple units on them (even after my own bad Sunday)... What do they do?... Well - As Dennis Green might put it... "THE JAGS ARE WHO WE THOUGHT THEY WERE"... My only consolation was that I turned the game off at halftime... Can't change your stripes (or spots - as the case may be)...

This week poses a dilemma though... I'm starting to become a "believer" in this Kansas City Chiefs turnaround... They still have to get through some major issues (like learning how to close out games in the 4th quarter)... But this EX-PATRIOT staff that they have (Pioli, Haley, Crennel, Weis), and that stock of first rounders that they've accumulated over the past few years is starting to show some signs that a sea change is coming on in Kansas City... I'm still not on the bandwagon that they're going to make the playoffs this year, but, they're INTERESTING (not an "afterthought" anymore)... From an execution standpoint, their main weakness at the moment is their defensive secondary... The Colts & Texans (past 2 weeks) have been able to exploit that... I doubt the Jaguars (with Buffalo Bills reject Trent Edwards filling in for quitter David Garrard) will be able to exploit it as much... In a BLOG metaphor, that would be like "x" replacing "y" as thread author... Oh nevermind!...

Nevertheless, I'm still not ready to "lay" 9 points with the Chiefs... I only spent this many words on this, mostly meaningless, game is because it may be a harbinger of some wagering plays going forward in the season... I'll take the JAGUARS (rolls eyes), for (0 units)... If I could put less than zero units on the game, I would... In fact, I should be paid just for commenting on it (or even acknowledging the existence of inferior realms of human reasoning in the name of efforts towards democratic flatlining)...

Philadelphia Dog Killers at Tennessee Flaming Thumbtacks (1:00 EST)

Line: Thumbtacks by 3

This is probably my least favorite game of the week to handicap... I've been "horrible" at handicapping the Titans this year (but have been pretty good at reading the Dog Killers - ooh, I hope that doesn't imply bad things about me)... Hmmm, I'd better go see a psychoanalyst because I'm not sure what that implies... CV loves dogs... Leave it at that... Not fond of "poodles" though...

The main thing is that my "success" with the Eagles has come when I determined that they (or the opposing team) was in a bad spot... If pushed against a wall, I'd say that the Dog Killers are in a worse spot this week... I'll take the TITANS for (0 units)... 

Washington Redskins at Chicago Bears (1:00 EST)

Line: Bears by 3

This is four weeks in a row that the Redskins have had to pour their guts out to win a football game (against pretty good teams - Texans, Packers, Colts)... Twice they came up short... THREE of those games were at Fed Ex Field (the lone AWAY game was at Philly - where Donovan McNabb had a little juice flowing)... I really don't see how they're going to be able to manage to get up for a game against the suddenly hapless Bears... Despite the fact that I think Mike Martz is a putz (who's probably shortening the career of Jay Cutler by at least 5 years), I'll take the BEARS for (3 units)...

Cleveland Browns at New Orleans Saints (1:00 EST)

Line: Saints by 13

Last week I was writing about the impending obituary of Colt McCoy (doing his NFL rookie debut start at Heinz Field)... Curiously, the Steelers chose to assassinate Josh Cribbs & Mohammed Massaquoi instead (and collect about $125,000 in fines doing so to pad the Roger Goodell "build a statue to honor me" foundation fund)... I actually had to suffer and watch until the bitter end to get the Steelers to do a multi unit cover (off a double digit divisional game spread) on that one...

Here's the bottom line... It's never a good idea to take rookie QB's on the road... You could say that Colt McCoy has already passed his most brutal test, but you can't tell me this situation is going to be any easier... Defensive coordinator (Greg Williams) of the Saints is known to like to get into the cabesa of opposing QB's with his blitz packages... Hell, Brett Favre (NFC Championship last year) couldn't handle it, so I'm doubting Colt mcCoy is going to fare any better... The Saints are banged up on defense, and are overall UNDERPERFORMING versus expectations this year... However, they finally had a statement game last week (in beating an upstart Tampa Bay team) on the road...

I don't want to fade that potential momentum... I've been on THE OTHER SIDE of most of the Saints games this year, but although I HATE laying double digit spreads, I'm going to have to do so here... SAINTS for (1 unit) ...

Buffalo Bills at Baltimore Ravens (1:00 EST)

Line: Ravens by 13

This game matches the "philosophy" of the Saints-Browns matchup earlier... Here, you have my disdain of laying double digit spreads, but VEGAS doesn't usually get hurt as bad with teams like the Ravens when they cover big pointspreads... (Vegas HATES it when the Colts, Cowboys, Jets, Giants, & Steelers all do so)...

The Bills are probably the worst team in the NFL this year (while the Ravens - despite their 2 losses - are ranked in the top 2 or 3 teams to WIN THE SUPERBOWL, depending on which sportsbook FUTURES spot you go to)... This "could" actually be a 17 point spread, but the Bills were OFF last week (so the public has forgotten how bad they are), and the Ravens just choked away a 10 point lead to the Patriots (and lost in in overtime - in Foxboro - last week)...

The Ravens play very well at M&T Bank stadium, they match up well against a Bills team (that hardly matches up well vs. ANYONE not named the Eastern Michigan University jayvee), and they're in a position that they don't want to be fooling around with any AFC teams (as "conference wins" could end up being a tiebreaker in a division where that includes the Steelers - for a playoff spot)...

There is also some crazy stat that shows that 6.5+ favorites (or more), are something like 35-9 going in to their BYE weeks (as the Ravens are)... It basically means that QUALITY teams tend to take care of business in these spots and aren't worth fading... I'll take the RAVENS for (4 units)...

San Francisco 49ers at Carolina Panthers (1:00 EST)

Line: 49ers by 3

A quiet little statistical anomaly (that normally only sports betting degenerates like myself know), is how BAD, usually, West Coast teams do when they have to play a 1:00PM game on the East Coast...

It's that "internal time clock" thing (and the disruption to schedule due to length of travel)... An East Coast game at 1:00PM means it's 10:00AM for the players on the visiting team... I usually circle these games on my agenda at the beginning of the year...

Here's a case though, where I'm going to go against that trend (based on other outliers)... The 49ers have had a horrible start to what was supposed to be a breakout year... They really haven't played all that poorly, they've just made mistakes at crucial times... They finally got into the win column last week against the Raiders, and I think they'll keep going here...

I sort of predicted this, in that I was looking at the schedule and thinking that what the 49ers NEED is to get out of the spotlight (and not be playing games on national TV vs. the Eagles or Saints)... The win over the Raiders last week can kick them on a nice stretch where they can come to a hapless Carolina team (which is rotating QB's again), then go clear over to LONDON ENGLAND, next week, and play the Denver Broncos... It almost seems "right"...

They may finish the little road trip with a fresh attitude, and find that they're right back IN THE HUNT in a weak NFC West division... A short line to cover this week in Carolina should not be that difficult to manage (considering that they ALMOST knocked a much tougher Atlanta Falcons team - save for a stupid play on an interception at the end of the game where Nate Clemens got the ball knocked away and gave the Falcons a last chance to win)... I'm going with the 49ERS for a full (5 units)... I'm considering making this my OCTOBER PICK OF THE MONTH (for even more units)... So stay tuned until kickoff...

St. Louis Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1:00 EST)

Line: Bucs by 3

This is another of what I consider to be a small handful of "juicy" games on the slate this week... It's hard to really get in to the personnel matchups between these two teams because although both squads have turned the corner a little in their re-building efforts, clearly neither team is ready for PRIME TIME or will likely make the playoffs...

Nevertheless, both teams are probably "playing with the house's $$" at this juncture of the season (with more wins, each, already, than many had perhaps expected all season)...

Of the two teams, I'd probably say that the RAMS have been more impressive... It seems that Sam Bradford might just have that "it" factor (not to take anything away from Josh Freeman of the Bucs)... Both QB's surely are familiar with each other (as they faced off in the BIG 12 conference - Bradford at Oklahoma/Freeman at Kansas State)... It may be something as simple as that that gives one team an edge here (as BRADFORD played for a Sooner team that hardly knew how to lose)... Bradford has to be thinking here... "Yeah... I can go in there and beat Freeman"...

We're now in Week 8, so by now Bradford can't be afraid of going in to a hostile environment... The Rams have surely played well at home (but have lost, thus far, on the road, to less than mediocre Raiders & Lions squads)... But I think you have to factor in other circumstances... The Raiders game was only Bradford's 2nd pro start (and the first road game)... In the game vs. the Lions, he lost his "go to" guy Mark Clayton (who broke his leg during the game - and is now out for the season)...

The Rams only responded by calling up Danario Alexander (who should be a "pickup" in all fantasy leagues) from the practice squad, and Bradford used him in a statement win over the Chargers last week as 8 point underdogs... Most forget that Alexander led the nation in receiving yards and touchdown receptions a few years ago at Missouri (but was undrafted and forgotton about because he suffered a knee injury his senior year)... He's the ARIAN FOSTER version of the wide receiver crew... To all "Jeremy Maclin" (Eagles) fantasy owners, Maclin was an afterthought to Alexander at Mizzou...

Anyway... It's kind of INTERESTING (to CV anyway) this week... Mizzou plays Oklahoma in a HUGE college matchup (that CV has put multi-units on)... My thinking is, that despite the rivalry that might go on there, these two players might be BONDED this week by some kind of extra mojo...

Tampa Bay, having lost it's best safety a few weeks ago, is getting BOMBED by the big play (against the Charlie Batch & the Steelers before their BYE week, and last week vs. Drew Brees & the Saints)... If Sam Bradford can exploit the big play in that way this week, the Rams have a very good chance of getting their first road win of the year... I'll go with the RAMS for (4 units)...

 LATE GAMES

Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (4:05 EST)

Line: Seahawks by 6

With all the units that CV was throwing around in the EARLY GAMES, picking these afternoon games could be kind of dicey... I want to make it CLEAR that despite having a HORRIBLE week last week, this week ISN'T a desperation attempt to "double down" or regain lost ground...

The games just fall as they fall...

This one "falls" into the realm of two major points on the checklist that CV likes to use...

- The Seahawks are a VERY GOOD home team (regardless of their record)

- I don't like the chances of ROOKIE QB's on the road

Combined, both of these elements favor a play on the Seahawks in this spot... My main problem is with the spread... ANYTHING close to 7 points in a division matchup is often DEATH (regardless of all other factors combined)... So I'm not going to try to break down the toughness of Max Hall, the standings, the "12th man", Seattle's pass rush, Marshawn Lynch, or anything else... Let me just say that the two bullet points that I listed above make it favorable for a play on the Seahawks, but that factor is PRICED IN TO the pointspread... So... FLIP a coin... I'll go ahead and take the SEAHAWKS for (0 units)...

New England Patriots at San Diego Lightning Bolts (4:15 EST)

Line: Lightning Bolts by 3

The Patriots must be saying... "What did I do to get DISRESPECTED by making me 3 point UNDERDOGS to a 2-4 team"?...

I'd be asking the same question... But I'd also be remembering that football lines aren't made based on what teams look like "on paper"... They aren't even made based on what VEGAS would like to be a 50-50% betting proposition...

Instead, oftentimes Vegas sets a line based on sheer PROBABILITY (and the fact that "over time", a skewed line will come back in their favor)...

Making a 3 point line here basically says that the Patriots & Chargers are EQUAL (the home team usually has the line moved 3 points in their direction - which means that these teams would be EVEN on a neutral field)...

So ARE the Patriots & Chargers equal?... In the "standings" they're certainly not (but that's what the PUBLIC usually swings towards)... So basically, VEGAS is trying to use the idea in the publics mind that the Patriots are superior to the Chargers... 

IMO - Both teams are about equal ON PAPER (so I think the Chargers are BETTER than what the public thinks - and the Patriots are NOT AS GOOD as the public thinks)... I could get in to other angles of betting this, but WHY BOTHER? 

Vegas actually has it right here... It's a coin flip... If I were a "bookie" (and collecting a bunch of bets on either side - most probably siding with the Patriots)... I'd be happy if most came down with them... But since I'm NOT (and therefore "paying" the vig)... I can't be so happy...

So the only thing really to decide is what VERDICT would make VEGAS most happy (as they are obviously the "smartest guys in the room")... Answer? Take the CHARGERS and lay the points... But don't go hog wild, because even if the opposite result occurs, the house goes home fairly content... (0 units)... IOW - Bet with the house when you can, but if the house isn't going to get killed by a loss, keep it under control...

"DE RAIDERS" at Denver Broncos (4:15 EST)

Line: Broncos by 8

You heard me before talking about how the annual NFL "London" game is scheduled for next week... 49ers vs. Broncos... This is kind of tough, because that game will be 7-8 "time zones" for each of those squads... 

When I see games like that on the schedule, I tend to throw away a lot of the personnel, or matchup ideas... But if you want to get in to it, I'll breeze by some of them here...

Kyle Orton (Denver) is probably having the best season of his career... He's doing so even though his running game is banged up... The Raiders are having their typical season... Up one week, down the next... Nobody knows what the hell is going on...

This is a divisional matchup... I'll say this for the MILLIONTH time... It's TOUGH covering more than a touchdown in ANY divisional matchup... Play that strategy over time and you'll probably win or break even with it...

I really don't like the fact that Denver (in this spot), put everything they had into beating the Jets last week and came up short (and now half the undisciplined players are unfocused because they're bumming out about the idea of eating fish & chips next week)... The OTHER half are probably "excited" because they're probably wondering what kind of HOOKERS London has to offer... But that doesn't help you win a football game this week...

The Raiders? They took their typical WEEK OFF last week (by not showing up against the 49ers where all they had to do was drive across the bridge to play a game)... I expect them to "show up" a little more here... If they want to impress the hookers, they probably need to win a football game or two, and not rely on the "novelty factor" of the London girls... The Raiders already have a win vs. the Chargers in the division... Maybe they'll fall short here, but 8 points short?... I'll take the RAIDERS for (3 units)...

SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (8:20 EST)

Line: Packers by 3

Game write-up to be posted on Sunday...I'm going with the PACK here... but for (1 unit) only... Brett Favre may have made one comeback too many, and this season seems to be bringing skeletons out of the closet for him...

I think it's time to "move on", and the Lambeau faithful need to stamp a win against him in his former house... When he's retired and in the Hall of Fame, they can get back to the good memories... Time heals, but if you don't let time pass, it won't... 

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (8:35 EST)

Line: Cowboys by 3

Game write-up to be posted on Sunday (or Monday)...

NFL PICKS STATUS

Week 8 NCAA Picks: 7-6-0

Week 8 unit pick differential: +1

Week 8 wager total: