Morning Corner (AUDIBLES -as the case may be)... 4.12.11

Just a few ideas that SURFACED in CV's mind these past few days...

"Just because you're not for real...

Why you wanna hurt me?"...

You told me to go up the block...

To get you a strawberry pop...

When I got back to the flat...

You had BURNED RUBBER out the back...

I went to the closet & saw no clothhes...

All I saw was HANGERS & POLES...

Went to the phone & called your mother...

Told her YOU'D 'burned rubber on me'... Charlie!..."

And otherwise...

It's OK... (PROBABLY... CV's all time 'theme' song - the WAY I ROLL)...

"So here's a solution that... COMES TO MIND"...

WTI (weekly info)
new high 112.79
trend=up
high= 112.79
rev= 105.39; mid= 109.09



The trend in WTI is changing quickly. Not only was there a bearish engulfing on the daily chart but the weekly chart has also formed a bearish engulfing. Now this could be due to another rumor of peace talks in Libya... PEACE BREAKS OUT... Whoda thunk it?...Could also be demand destruction in the US as people are buying less gas and carpooling or having staycations... When Obama "nationalizes" NFLX... You'll kno 4 sure...



AAPL (weekly info)
-no change (below mid)
trend=no
direction=down (1 bar)
low= 330.67
rev= 360.00; mid= 345.34


Apple's glory days may be coming to an end. It is now trading below its monthly 3LB mid which indicates that major weakness is taking hold... IRRADIATED COMPONENTS BITCHEZ... It also is acting like its wants to make a confirming low on the weekly 3LB chart (has until Friday). The SMA(55) and lower trend line may serve as support if the monthly 3LB reversal price is taken out. The fact that its weighting on the NASDAQ is about to be reduced doesn't help its situation... As IF...

AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection.

Creditcane™: I am the voice that whispers in your ear "Danger".

SPX
Spinning top day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. Above the 14.6% retrace (1319.09). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 1335.54). QE2infinity. "JBTFD. Don't question it. Just do it."



DXY
Bullish short day (bullish thrusting?). Midpoint below EMA(10). No test of new 0.0% retrace (74.84). Below all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 76.04).



VIX
Spinning top day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still below all SMA's. Daily 3LB reversal down (reversal is 17.87). Still in the "no fear" zone.



GOLD
Dark cloud cover day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Made a new 0.0% retrace. Still above all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1452.50). Holding above upper trend line. Must have the precious.



EURUSD
Bearish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above 1.4346 (the 76.4% retrace). Above all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1.4207).



JNK
Bearish long day (confirmed dark cloud cover). Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. Still above its 50.0% retrace (40.42). Still below lower trend line. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 40.21).



10YR YIELD
Bearish short day. No test of 0.0% retrace at 37.44. Still above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and failed 76.4% retrace (36.02). Held the upper trend line. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 34.91).



WTI
Bearish engulfing day. Still above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Made a new 0.0% retrace. No dally 3LB changes (reversal is 108.47).




SILVER
Bearish thrusting day. Still above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Made a new 0.0% retrace. Holding upper trend line. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 39.19).



BKX
Spinning top day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed SMA(89). Still above its 38.2% retrace (51.48). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 53.31).

Morning Corner 4.11.11

DXY (weekly info)
new low 75.07
trend=down
low= 75.07
rev= 77.28; mid= 76.18



You have a collect call. From who? From the lows of 2009. Will you accept the charges? The week that ended 4/8/11 was the first week to close below the low of 2010 of 75.63. Next support is 74.17 which was in 2009. If Congress has a similar battle over the debt ceiling as it had over the budget then that will erode confidence even further in the dollar.



90 Day Treasury (weekly info)
new low 0.040
trend=down
low= 0.040
rev= 0.160; mid= 0.100



All this talk about the Fed raising rates. The 90 Day UST made a new weekly low on 4/8/11. I guess the market believes that the Fed won't or can't raise rates anytime soon. So even though QE2 will end in June the PDs will be able to borrow at low rates and lend (yeah right) at higher rates.



DJ Food & Beverage - US (weekly info)
new high 339.51
trend=up
high= 339.51
rev= 330.77; mid= 335.14



US food and beverage index is now above the highs from 2008. Time to stock up on catfood before it's too late.

Sunday Afternoon Commentary: Master's Sunday Ed.

It's Masters Sunday, one of my favorite days of the sporting year, so will not have much to add to my latest Scribd "offering."

The thing that is most striking, upon looking at the "bigger picture," is how much Silver and Gold have outpeformed the Euro in the last few years. March '08 was an important inflection point in the Forex market--the Euro is STILL down from those lofty heights whereas Gold and Silver are up 50% an 100% over the same time.

Amazing stuff.

I'm rooting for someone young and/or "new" to win the Masters.

Bust of Luck to everyone in the week ahead.

Market Commentary 10Apr11

AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection.

Creditcane™: I am a member of the US House of Representatives and Senate.

SPX
Bearish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. Above the 14.6% retrace (1319.09). Daily 3LB reversal down (reversal is 1335.54). QE2infinity. "JBTFD. Don't question it. Just do it."



DXY
Bearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Destroyed the 0.0% retrace (75.63) from 11/4/10. Below all SMA's. New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 76.04).



VIX
Bullish engulfing day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still below all SMA's. Daily 3LB reversal up (reversal is 16.90). Still in the "no fear" zone.



GOLD
Bullish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Made a new 0.0% retrace. Still above all SMA's. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1452.50). Holding above upper trend line. Must have the precious.



EURUSD
Bullish long day (didn't confirm bearish harami). Midpoint above EMA(10). Now above 1.4346 (the 76.4% retrace). Above all SMA's. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1.4207).



JNK
Dark cloud cover day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. Still above its 50.0% retrace (40.42). Still below lower trend line. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 40.21).



10YR YIELD
Bearish short day (failed to confirm hanging man). No test of 0.0% retrace at 37.44. Still above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and failed 76.4% retrace (36.02). Held the upper trend line. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 34.91).



WTI
Bullish long day. Still above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Made a new 0.0% retrace. New high on dally 3LB (reversal is 108.47).




SILVER
Bullish long day. Still above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Made a new 0.0% retrace. Holding upper trend line. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 39.19).



EEM
Bearish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Above all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 48.67).

LEFTBACK'S BOND REPORT

LB's Bond Report

No detailed Bond Report from me today, but a nice picture, and we will let Mish do the talking;

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/04/yield-curve-widens-as-long-term-rates.html

If you look carefully at these yield curve time series you can see it is soon getting close to buying time again for 5s and 10s, and we may be there already in 30s.

As Matt points out above, buying HY would be a poor move here. This is a very good time to know what you own and how it will respond to higher rates/inflation or lower rates and slower growth (the latter being my forecast for Q3/4 if not sooner.

Obviously there are those who believe in apocalyptic breakouts in Treasury yield, but we are not among them. The US debt means that such a situation is untenable.