Update in a nutshell:
Dollar looks headed for more weakness;
Gold looks like it may have found bottom--expect further strength.
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33 comments:
ummm... Tiger Woods bitchez...
some see trees...
http://traders-anonymous.blogspot.com/2012/03/week-ahead-glimpse-s-and-dxy.html?showComment=1331558687037#c6030179905761658749
others see forest...
http://traders-anonymous.blogspot.com/2012/03/week-ahead-glimpse-s-and-dxy.html?showComment=1331562469648#c3844569930582667636
Ha.
Some see Tiger Woods in the trees....
Nice Win for him. We'll see about those Majors ...
I was talking to a guy who played on 'various' Tours and now caddies for a guy who has WON major golf tournaments...
I didn't realize this..but some guys, when they're near the cut line at Golf Tournaments will avoid making the cut. It's not worth their time or money to actually make a cut if they're a certain number of strokes behind the lead.
Also, Phil Mickelson, before the Masters, tends to just shoot the shots he's going to try for in the Masters. IOW, he doesn't care about shooting a score in the Tournament he's presently in...he's just practicing.
Bay Hill? Oh yeah...just noticed that 8 of the top 10 in the world skipped that Tourney. Still a good win...clapping hands in polite fashion.
Love it when D-Bags like Invictus weigh in with their "statistical analysis."
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/03/military-spending-addenda/comment-page-1/#comment-616012
The latest is this military spending stuff...
Look, the US has a huge military industrial complex and we spend way too much being the world police.
BUT, the only way to analyze military spending by country is to do so by comparing military spending as it relates to GDP.
Those who possess more tend to spend more money protecting their shit.
That's a general observation...
@AndyT
I knew you were going to come up with a few factoids (& rightfully so) to put a question mark on Tiger's win...
I'll give you a few own (don't get upset people ~ this is just observation which aligns with my POV, just as Andy puts up facts that align with his)...
~~~
1. Out of the final 8 groups at Bay Hill, they played them in 38 over par (while Tiger played under par)... Everyone admitted the course was playing extremely difficult (US Open-ish)...
2. Maybe something (vis-a-vis Mickleson) can be said, but Mickleson already has a couple of green jackets... Which means that he has a permanent invitation to the Masters... Others, like Ernie Els, needed a TOP 3 finish or else they would not be qualified for the Masters... So, there ARE, in fact, a lot of good golfers trying very hard to WIN at Bay Hill (as next week in Houston will be their last chance to punch a ticket to Augusta)... Most of the 'missing' players, are missing because they may have an exemption... Tiger has a permanent exemption at Augusta also, but he's working on his game...
3. Arnie's tournament IS NOT the Greater Milwaukee Open, it attracts most of the finest players...
4. Tiger's margin of victory (5 shots), was the highest MOV since Rory McIlroy in the US Open last year...
5. & here's the biggest stat to me... Since Tiger's last victory on the PGA Tour, there have been 108 Tournaments, with, get this... 72 'different' winners... That says to me that despite all the 'blah, blah, blah' you hear from sportswriters, NOBODY is really dominating the Tour (& nobody really has, since, um Tiger)...
~~~
He's now the FAVORITE to win at Augusta (& of course, if he wins there, he'll be favorite to win the US Open)... and so on & so on...
@AndyT
In any case... What I think I'm searching to do here is NOT load up with a bunch of 'stats' & petty arguments, but actually try and look at something which (I think), is relevant... (especially for a 'TRADING' blog as it applies to market psychology)...
~~~
There's hardly a doubt that Thanksgiving, 2009 was a "market top" for Tiger Woods... I myself was even in on that bandwagon...
But time passes... &, well let's face it, it's not like Tiger murdered anyone or anything, he was just vilified for having acted like a 'douche' (which was personal to a lot of people because they'd put a lot of stock in him &/or the people who hated him all along now had their finger to point & lettuce to toss)...
But to say that someone like Tiger "is finished" is just plain wrong... Like saying the S&P would go to ZERO...
Most completely ignored the various things that Tiger did during the time period: from new swing coaches to new caddies (& suffering while BOTH his erx-caddie & swing coach attacked him in the media & by writing 'tell all' books ~ [Haney's book comes out today])...
Who knows if he'll beat Jacks record or not... I still think he will (& have voiced that several times here on this blog while others were saying he's finished)...
In any case, it would be hard to, at minimum, at this point, NOT say that at least "the bottom" has been put into the stock...
Unless someone who adheres to EW might say that the most recent slide was only the bottom of P3 & the worst is yet to come...
EOQ means CYA if bearish. The bear hunting trip is on until further notice. Damn.
Of course the bearish harami on the weekly SPX had to be crushed. Happens every f'in time one shows up.
Ouch...Dallas Fed Mfg Actual 10.8, previous 17.8, consensus 15.5
Damn the daily 3LB has reversed higher (above 1409.75). RSI bounced off 60.90 on 3/22/12 and is now at 67.68 so it's not overbought. Is there anything that can help the case for the bears?
@Amen (10:33)
I heard a new term today that made me laugh...
"PRINTERrvention"
~~~
So let's apply that... The S&P is "up" a dozen points because a bad manufacturing report leads to HOPE for a "printervention"...
Gotta love trading equity markets!
CV
BB hinted at continued intervention in his speech this morning.
@Amen
& 4 more days until EOM/EOQ... I checked your blog this morning...
Stone cold possibility of a confirmation of the reversal UP...
@Amen
I'm still sticking with that 1474-ish call that I made at the beginning of the year...
In the end, the whole thing might end up looking like a big H&S (with around 1250, from November, as the left shoulder)...
I use the 1250 because there was a candle gap there (which, if I remember, was the MF Global thing), then wasroughly the same level at the end of the year)...
So ~ November > April = 6 months... May > October = other 6 months, timewise, of the "head"... Markets FLAT for the year (at the time of the elections)... Cruise control for the gnomes who have nothing to do with anything...
~~~
I suppose a 'flash crash', come May, would be about the perfect thing to mark the top... This whole (low VIX), incessant grind, reminds me a lot of 2010 anyway... Wouldn't seem hard (to me anyway), to precipitate something like that hastily... It probably would buy 5 more months to work thru that 'technically'...
JTOL ~ as always...
Yo CV.
To clarify...if i ever said TW was 'finished' it was a suggestion that he would never really be able to find his 'super winning' ways where he was a 50/50 shot to win every major.
I think he's probably got 1-2 Masters left in him over the next several years... a la Mark O'Meara.
There's no way he breaks Nicklaus' record.
There's WAY too much young talent out there coming into their "primes."
He's a Top 25 type of golfer now...so, yeah...if he's putting well...he's going to do well in Tournaments...just like EVERY OTHER golfer on the Tour.
If the flat stick is rolling, any pro has a chance to win a tourney.
Further proof that EVERYTHING is political with the O-Man.
http://worldblog.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/03/26/10866962-hot-mike-moment-obama-overheard-telling-medvedev-he-needs-space-on-missile-defense
this is beginning to look like 'Distribution', to me..
http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=AAPL
~605
AAIP
Crap. Net $ vol (NYSE, SPX, NASDAQ) is still near the highs of the day. Trin is still indicating a push higher into the close. PC Ratio slightly bullish (more like indecision). Bears are being skinned alive. Oh the pain!
You weren't the one who said "he is finished" (someone else did)... Exact quote...
~~~
Again... I'm just tossing out points here the same way you are... But here's what I see...
- I could easily see him winning another 2 Masters (tying Jack's record of six)... Jack himself said early on that Tiger would probably beat his record... Don't think Tiger is not keen to this and has it as a goal...
- Players are sometimes "horses for courses"... Tiger has won British Opens at Royal Liverpool (Hoylake), & 2 at St. Andrews... Next year "The Open" returns to Hoylake & He'll probably play in at least another 3 at St. Andrews...
- He'll probably play another US Open as well at Pebble, Torrey Pines, & Bethpage (as well as Oakmont in 2 years, where he battled Angel Cabrera down the stretch...
Even though this was the first official PGA Tour win since 2009, he won an unofficial tournament last fall, and has been in contention several times this year already, (Pebble, Doral)...
Yes he's putting better (so I agree with your observation)... But I also say this about putting... It oftentimes is a reflection of your golf game in general... IOW ~ when you're playing with confidence, the flatstick ends up going along for a ride... I know this from the championship golf I played which included 2 US Open qualifiers...
Tiger led ALL STAT CATEGORIES last week at Bay Hill... What I saw was a guy who had no problem going for the safe shot into greens (& leaving himself with 50 or 60 feet of 2 putt for par)... You get a lot of confidence when you trust yourself to not 3 putt from that range... Conversely, when you're all around game is sketchy, you end up taking more risks (which can lead to bogeys that have nothing to do with the putter)...
So what I'm saying is that, yes, putting is super important (but how well you're putting, lots of time, has little to do with how well you're putting ~ which sounds weird, I kno)...
Shit. There goes last weeks high.
...and about this...
There's WAY too much young talent out there coming into their "primes."
~~~
In my kooky way of looking at things, I see that as a double edged sword... "Tiger was coming in to his prime" when he had the incident in 2009... (He was #1, he won the Vardon Trophy that year, & he won 6 PGA events that year)...
The lesson here is that success 'spoils' a lot of players... A lot had to do with their discipline & work ethic...
- some may want to get married
- which also may lead to divorce
- some get fat & happy
- some can't live up to the pressure of the limelight
- some can't crack the final nut & it gets into their head (Sergio Garcia)
You never know...
All I know is that I'd still be quite respectful of a "focused Tiger" on the golf course...
CV
At this rate the SPX monthly 3LB reversal up will be confirmed (which sucks).
frou-frou (s) Now! in Cans..~
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Feb 28, 2012
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AAIP
@AmenRa
What about 'quarterly'?
not that it matters..
though, I've never understood all of the 'Tiger'-"hatred"'..
as a Golfer, that flippin' Cat can Swing some Stick..at the min.
as well, He, and, arguably, He alone, brought 'Bales' of additional Cache to the 'Pro Game'..
to the extent that, now, there are 'middling 'Pros'' that earn more in ~3 years, than Tom Watson did in his, entire, PGA Career..(note: Nominal 'Dollars')..
as a Person? he never, particularly, appealed to me, but, f*** him, or f*** me, that isn't my, or his, Pr*blem..~
AAIP
AAIP
Plus he made the PGA redesign courses.
@AAIP
It's been a fascinating phenomenon to watch that speaks as much about 'people in general' as it does about Tiger himself...
How quickly something (as 'tawdry & gossipy' as it was played out in the media unfolded), it's amazing how lightning quick people who don't even know him, all of a sudden became experts about his flaws... To the extent that his own caddie & swing coach wrote "tell all" books about him and seemed to relish talking to eager reporters about the subject...
What's ironic about it is that he did not break any KNOWN laws (that I know of)... & the behavior he engaged in is probably something that, I'd say, most people engage in to some degree or another in their own lives...
~~~
Bottom line is... It's really none of their business, but if people really want to make somebody elses business their own business... There doesn't seem to be much anyone can do to stop that from happening...
CV
quote:
"What's ironic about it is that he did not break any KNOWN laws (that I know of)... & the behavior he engaged in is probably something that, I'd say, most people engage in to some degree or another in their own lives..."
I wonder what would happen if all of the PGA members secrets were exposed. TW's escapades might pale in comparison.
@Amen (4:12)
Can't have that happening now can we?
~~~
changing gears
do you have an answer of the 'quarterly' 3lb?
CV
I don't have a quarterly or yearly option in my charting software.
ok thanks... gonna have to 'old skool it then...
cause it would appear at first glance that the QUARTERLY candle would take out the quarterly candle print of 3/31/11... & the next target would take you right back to the mid-summer '08 ones...
@Amen
Furthermore (& I'm doing this with my 'minds eye', not having a candle to look at)...
The Q112 candle is going to look like a tall white soldier candlestick if the market doesn't sell-off by Friday...
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