The pre bear calvary dance?
Creditcane™: Looks good but is it real or Memorex?
SPXBearish thrusting day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Holding above all SMA's. Tested and failed the 0.0% retrace (1416.58). Tested and failed the upper trend line. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1392.78). QE2infinity.
DXYBullish thrusting day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing the 61.8% minor retrace (79.60). Failing SMA(21). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 79.79).
VIXBullish day (confirmed inverted hammer). Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing all SMA's. Tested and held its 100.0% retrace (14.27). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 15.64).
GOLDBearish thrusting day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Holding above its 50.0% retrace (1658.40). Tested and failed SMA(21,89). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1711.50). Still above monthly 3LB mid. Must have the precious.
EURUSDBearish thrusting day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and failed SMA(144). Holding above its 61.8% minor retrace (1.3227). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1.3465).
JNKSpinning top day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and held SMA(21). Holding above its 38.2% minor retrace (39.62). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 39.88).
10YR YIELDBearish long day. Still above all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed its 50.0% minor retrace (22.11). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 23.79).
WTIDoji day. Tested and held SMA(21). Midpoint above EMA(10). Failing its 38.2% minor retrace (108.40). No dally 3LB changes (reversal is 110.31). Not confirming the monthly 3LB reversal down.
SILVERBearish short day. Tested and failed SMA(55). Midpoint above EMA(10). Holding above its 38.2% minor retrace (32.01). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 32.79).
BKXBearish harami day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. Tested and failed its 50.0% minor retrace (50.01). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 49.09).
HYG/LQDBearish long day. Tested and held SMA(233). Midpoint above EMA(10). Failing its 50.0% retrace (0.7942). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 0.7846).
EEMBearish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and failed SMA(21). Tested and failed its 61.8% retrace (43.48). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 44.75).
AAPLBullish short day. Still above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and held its 0.0% retrace (609.65). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 601.10).
Dow TheoryTransports and Russell 2k still not playing along.
IT HAS BEGUN. YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED.
32 comments:
@Amen (4:43 ~ last thread)
Do it... I'd be interested to see...
Frankly ~ I'm a little flummoxed because if you get a supposed 'Dow Theory' confirmation, coupled with the 3lb scenarios that are looming (by the end of this week)... Well, you know what that portends...
I'm only flummoxed, though, because I'm trying to fit it all in with my 1474 call earlier this year...
IOW - if all signals become 'go'... 1474 isn't really that far away...
It would be one hell of a HEAD FAKE if it stopped there (which ~ in my crazy logic, is EXACTLY what I expect)...
Are you ready for some football?...
~~~
http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/7743990/new-york-giants-host-dallas-cowboys-open-2012-season
cv--
re: TW v. 'the Field'-Wager..
II things..
I I don't bet against Golfers that I'm not Playing against..
II 'the Field'? W(ho)TF is that? :)
II writing the CDS, on the wager, (w/ AT), was a bit of a 'Joke'*..
*AT, if need be, is 'Good'..
+ I wouldn't have to 'Post', any, "Reserve(s)" (either), would I? :)
~~~
but, still, I'll 'write' the CDS, on the Wager..
AAIP
AmenRa,
btw, nice Chartage~!
esp., with that 'Dow Theory'-Set..
"Correlation", much? (na, of course Not.."Who do you think 'Tradin' this Place? Alvin, the Algorithm??"
ibid.
@Ra-dog
fwiw, here is my primary trend DT chart, I still use the traditional industrials and transports comparison:
http://tinypic.com/view.php?pic=21d036w&s=5
the last buy signal was given on exactly 12/23/2011 at the close.
couple thoughts:
1. non-confirmation is not enough for a dow theory sell signal, we won't get that until both indexes drop quite a ways from here. there is an example in my chart of a non-confirmation that didn't generate any signal (2010 markers) so the primary DT trend is still up.
2. While there is non-confirmation currently its also worth noting that the trannies recent peak was an "all time high", I think it would be fair to say that the trannies "rescaled themself over the last 18 months" (as in the fibo concept Connie uses that you know about) and perhaps the dow is not there yet.....
I'd also lean toward RUT breaking out to the upside right at the moment, if for no other reason than the RSI has exactly held the range I defined as "bull market support" and has really worked off a ton of excess by mostly moving sideways. Within that space you can find an awful lot of charts that about ready to breakout.......we'll see....
thanks for your efforts as always man, I appreciate it.
I'm not a raging bull at this point but there aren't enough sell signals as far as I can tell right now, your odds are still best on the long side it would seem
@b22
Thanks for those explanations on $TRAN...
I just understand that 'there's something about them (not what they officially, supposedly, mean)...
~~~
@AAIP
I'm afraid I don't understand your LINGO (in plain terms)...
Are we on? (wager ~ as described in last thread)... or not?
Or is it that you 'conceptually' would write Andy T's side of the bet?
~~~
In simple terms... I'll TAKE THE BET (max 2 takers ~ based on settlement terms described in other thread ~ for up to 2 'writers' [100 'par' each])...
CV,
I think you guys are all smart in pointing out something is going on there. Its a little hard to quantify the importance of the current non-confirmation with the fact that the trannies made an all time high. Thus, the need for other tools. Sometimes though I've seen other blogs make a big deal about the non-confirmation and say that its "bearish". it *might be bearish.
In the edwards and magee chapters on dow theory they walk you through the 60's interpreting it from a DT perspective over several years. Despite the overall bull trend there were lots of non-confirmations during that time and it rings in my ears what they said in the book
"a non-confirmation is exactly that, a non-confirmation"
made a point to then show how a lot of dow theorists at the time got in trouble trying to jump the gun on a sell signal based on those non-confirmations
thats the one "problem" with the DT is that it is "slow"
lots of ways to deal with this, one Ra did, by using other indexes, my chart for example is more intermediate term trades than traditional dow theory because I'm looking for a dual break of a "significant low from the last 5 months" rather than large, absolute price lows.
Strangely enough when Dow invented the Dow Theory he did it as an economic indicator.
I don't dare get involved but I'm loving the golf bets
might sound a little strange but I'd like to see Tiger win another big one.
Is he a douche for what he did? Yeah, he is.....but people make mistakes, hopefully he learned from it.
@b22
thats the one "problem" with the DT is that it is "slow"
~~~
That's a key point for me...
Generically speaking... Nothing ought to be 'slow' these days (& if it IS, it ought to give one pause)...
Amen's 3lb additives ought to add another layer to that (which have 3 more days before they are etched into the record books)...
~~~
FWIW ~ I'm still probably holding on to my earlier forecasts...
I suppose it's a lot like wave counts... They're VALID, until they're no longer valid...
there are several short term mechanical systems that have been developed with good track record for the DT
I doubt that is a shock to anyone......computers make it "easy"
cv--
re: TW v. 'the Field'-Wager..
..
I I don't bet against Golfers that I'm not Playing against..
~~
AAIP
but, still, I'll 'write' the CDS, on the Wager..
ibid.
Comparing 3LB to DT
Dow Industrials
Weekly: trend=up
Monthly: trend=no, direction=up (1 bar)
DT: new high=yes
Dow Transports
Weekly: trend=no, direction=down (1 bar)
Monthly: trend=no, direction=down (2 bars)
DT: new high=no
SPX
Weekly: trend=up
Monthly: trend=no, direction=up (1 bar)
DT: new high=yes
NASDAQ
Weekly: trend=up
Monthly: trend=no, direction=up (1 bar)
DT: new high=yes
RUSSELL 2K
Weekly: trend=up
Monthly: trend=no, direction=down (2 bars)
DT: new high=no
Looking at the monthly 3LB info all of the indices usually move together. They all turned up in 7/09 and down in 8/11. All but TRANS & Russell 2k turned up in 2/12. Now TRANS turned up in 11/09 so it appears that it lags INDU by a few months when turning up. Patience padawan.
@Mark (9:29)
lol ~ I guess we'll have to start calling you "AAIG" from now on...
In any case, no need... Andy will be good for it ;-)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wTWKT3pZgT8&list=UU8eFERtcxPZ-M3Cxkh7zhtQ&index=3&feature=plcp
Janet Tavakoli on RT's "Capital Account" w/ Lauren Lyster..
~~
cv--
that's the 'beauty' of the Offer to Write that 'CDS'..~
AAIP
Morning laugh (from the Onion): http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=ZJ380SHZvYU
aka Facebook is the CIA's greatest initiative.
@Amen (9:18)
You should seriously watch this clip...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Szs5DNWdYRE
http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=CTL
~39.00
with that one, i 'hope' the "Yield Pigs" have their "Iron Collars" on..
ibid.
So, am I getting "filled" on my 4:1 Tiger offer? 100/400?
ben,
got your email. interesting numbers there ....
stop-loss hit on my SSO calls, even
1406 again... pfft
AAPL weekly since Dec-11, I need taller charting software! :/
The bear calvary must have gotten their orders.
Ra,
any critical 3lb/other work you do lining up around the 1340's zone?
AT,
well, maybe something you might be able to integrate with your wave work.
a lot of these concepts are still pretty new to me but I'm starting to try and count waves in a different manner using the rsi techniques
instead of trying to find wave 1, then 2, etc. I'm copying connie and starting in the middle or "third of a third" type action which should be seen in the indicators and working out from there
waves are subjective so this is helping reduce at least some of that
gold very interesting to me in between now and mid April as an aside.
gold very interesting to me in between now and mid April as an aside...
McB,
do you feel that there's potential for a solid 'Down Draft' in the U$D-Price of Au ?
AAIP
AAIP,
nah, thats not really my current view, I think a big chunk of the downdraft has already taken place since Gold $1,900 or the 185 high in GLD
that whole entire price action since then looks corrective to me so that big bull trend is still in place
I just couldn't say how much longer it will do this, I'm looking at mid april as a first potential turn based on some other work I've done
I have no position at the moment
the dollar is also not the most constructive chart in the world at the moment imo, so sort of hard to be too bearish on gold unless that changes
b22
The 50.0% minor retrace is 1402.42 and has only only close above it on the weekly chart. The 61.8% minor retrace is 1361.43. The weekly 3LB mid is 1384.96 and weekly 3LB reversal is 1365.74. So far I don't see anything around the 1340 range.
thanks Ra
Aw damn. Looks like the bulls waited for the bears to go to lunch before staging an attack.
to be clear, by 'Down Draft', was thinking the 'Range' that AmenRa laid out, above..
~1400, or so, looks like '(waay) Max risk'..
ibid.
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