Creditcane™: I am weather. I can outlast any form of manipulation.
SPXBearish harami day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. Holding above the minor 38.2% retrace (1314.25). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1312.41). QE2infinity.
DXYSpinning top day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing the 61.8% minor retrace (79.60). Holding above SMA(89). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 79.78).
VIXTakuri day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing all SMA's. Failing its 61.8% minor retrace (18.81). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 19.87).
GOLDSpinning top day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and held its 38.2% retrace (1721.30). Still above all SMA's. Daily 3LB reversal down (reversal is 1759.30). Still above monthly 3LB mid. Must have the precious.
EURUSDDoji day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and held SMA(55). Tested and failed its 50.0% minor retrace (1.3137). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1.3025).
JNKBullish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. Holding above its 61.8% retrace (38.86). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 39.12).
10YR YIELDBearish harami day (but there's no uptrend). Tested and failed SMA(21). Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and held its 0.0% retrace (18.96). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 17.99).
WTIBearish short day. Tested and failed SMA(233). Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed its 50.0% retrace (97.71). No dally 3LB changes (reversal is 98.86). Not confirming the monthly 3LB reversal down.
SILVERSpinning top day. Holding above SMA(89). Midpoint above EMA(10). Holding above its 38.2% minor retrace (31.85). Daily 3LB reversal down (reversal is 34.17).
BKXBearish harami day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. Holding above its 50.0% retrace (43.76). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 43.38).
HYG/LQDBearish short day. Tested and failed SMA(55). Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed its 38.2% retrace (0.7808). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 0.7908).
USDJPYBullish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing all SMA's. HOlding above its 38.2% retrace (76.395). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 75.52).
AUDJPYBearish harami day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and held SMA(233). Tested and failed its 61.8% retrace (0.8182). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 0.8231).
IT HAS BEGUN. YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED.
25 comments:
the sp500 has to reverse tomorrow...
bears have no other option...
Andy T
The Nasdaq has broken above the previous high. The S&P, Dow and Russell have yet to do so. If they don't soon then the move in the Nasdaq will have been a head fake.
"...CR is smoking crack. You simply can't look at charts and determine anything in this regard, and here's why: Tax load.
I'll give you one example -- my former home in Deerfield, IL.
I sold it in 2000. Today, it has gone up in "value" (according to various estimated sources) a fair bit from where I sold it. Of course it was worth a hell of a lot more in the middle of the bubble, but that's immaterial.
What's material is the carrying cost and what you can rent a similar house for.
See, real estate taxes on that house are now (as of 2010, latest I have the assessment for) right near $21,000 a year. And the estimated rent is $2,600 a month.
So renting the house would bring you $31,000 a year. But of that only $10,000 is left after paying property taxes, or about $830 a month. That doesn't even come close to paying the mortgage on the joint.
In fact you can't even get close to being able to cover a 2% Interest-only rolling note on the place with what's left of cash flow, and that assumes 100% occupancy and zero operating expenses, both of which are of course fanciful assumptions. When interest rates go up in the future, of course, it simply makes it worse -- much worse.
In other words the house has a negative capitalized value at the present time.
Housing bottom? Not a prayer in hell for areas like the Chicago suburbs, as there is no price at which these homes can change hands in an open market and yet pencil out due to the tax load. At roughly $2,000/month in property taxes alone these homes are worth nothing -- and we're not talking about mansions here either. Oh sure, it is a very nice (and pretty large) house, but it's not a mansion by any stretch of the imagination..."
http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=201584
ibid.
Where Your State And Local Taxes Are Going
"...When you're done throwing up at the active duty salaries, you might look at "retired". There you will find people making more than $30,000 a month in retirement pension "benefits" -- promises your wonderful state and local governments made and now are fulfilling -- and guess who's getting the bill? You are.
Then there are the State Worker's Compensation Claims. Some are probably legitimate. But I gotta admit, getting $300,000 worth of taxpayer funds due to "overexertion by lifting objects" sounds pretty good to me. Where do I sign up to soak the taxpayer with this one?
If we, the people, ever want to do something about the cost of government, we had better start right here, especially when it comes to these salaries and retirement "benefits." I don't care what people were promised -- it was and is being extorted from the people at gunpoint, and nobody has the right to do that.
These pensions need to be clawed back and stopped on a forward basis, and those working in "public service" need their salaries capped at no more than 125% of the median family income immediately and forevermore into the future..."
http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=201572
AAIP
@Erik K,
in case you were not able to find this before, and were interested:
http://www.mta.org/eweb/docs/pdfs/2011-dowaward.pdf
""Andy T said...
the sp500 has to reverse tomorrow...
bears have no other option...""
Is You Is Or Is You Ain't gonna tank this week, or soon? Speaking of options, I've tracked the NDX/SPX P/C ratio average for the last year and seems more often than not, there is a spike just before it tanks. It's on the rise again but haven't seen a spike in a while... just saying.
You may want to read this.
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/02/my-newfound-respect-for-hank-paulson/
Prashant
@Prashant
Thanks for turning me into a "rubbernecker" for a day by going over to Ritholtz blog...
If you don't know what a "rubbernecker" is in India, it's what we use to decribe the morbid behavior of traffic slowing down so that curious people can get an eyeful of a gruesome accident...
~~~~from Ritholtz
BR: No, it s a series of small things he did since leaving treasury that were surprisngly humane. None of it involved him writing a check, just stepping into a few situations to do the right thing when he did not have to.
I still think his reign as Tres Secy was ruinous — I just think he is a less of a creep personally than I previously did...
Great... Since it had nothing to do with Paulson being Treas Sec. or with money... I'm guessing that Ritholtz got an invite to a Hampton's party, or that Paulson loaned him some Grey Poupon because all he had was generic mustard...
"I was revealed these things but I can't talk about them... You'll just have to TRUST ME"
What a bunch of baloney... This is worse than telling everyone that he was asked to testify before Congress & declined to go...
Wow Barry... Can I shine your shoes? Do yourself a favor, if cream of mushroom soup is on the menu, don't eat it!
cv--
what's your take on this..
"...It’s Too Late To Save The Common Web -- Facebook and Google Have Won
The date was January 3, 2008. Facebook had kicked me off for running a script to try to save the common web.
See, I worked with Plaxo to run a simple script. One that would have taken my contacts out of Facebook and put them back into the common web. The script did some very simple things:
...
Facebook’s answer was predictable. They shut me down.
Oh, a few people supported me. Joseph Smarr, for one. Marc Canter, for two. It isn’t lost on me that Joseph now works on the Google+ team and Marc isn’t in the San Francisco area anymore.
They understood what was at stake: the future of the web.
But most others said I deserved to be kicked off of Facebook.
...
Did Dave Winer lead a SOPA-like protest? No.
Mike Arrington and I had violent disagreements on the Gillmor Gang about my motives.
Heck, these arguments continue to this day. Yesterday Steve Gillmor, again, on yesterday’s Gillmor Gang, said I had broken Facebook’s Terms of Service, which implied that I deserved to get kicked off. I had, but I was trying to save the common web.
The message was loud and clear: Facebook should be allowed to be a data roach motel: data can come in, but damn you Scoble if you want to take that data back out.
The lesson today, four years later, is that the common web is in grave threat, not just from Facebook’s data roach motel but from Apple’s and Amazon’s and, now, Google.
It isn’t lost on me that Joseph Smarr now works at Google and that some of the others who spoke up on my behalf now work at Facebook.
Today their arguments are hitting my ears. Only four years too late. Here, look at their arguments:
Dave Winer says: “Having Google break the contract is not just bad for Google, it’s bad for the web.”
John Battelle says: “The web as we know it is rather like our polar ice caps: under severe, long-term attack by forces of our own creation.”
Now do you get why I really don’t care anymore? The time for a major fight was four years ago.
I understood then what was at stake.
Today? It’s too late. My wife is a great example of why: she’s addicted to Facebook and Zynga and her iPhone apps.
,,,
linkage, for above..
http://www.businessinsider.com/its-too-late-for-dave-winer-and-john-battelle-to-save-the-common-web-2012-2
ibid.
@AAIP
My general impression (& seriously ~ you have to underscore GENERAL ~ which, for me, means that oftentimes I'll form an opinion on something off a FIRST IMPRESSION... It's a sword that cuts two directions because while in some ways it's "johnny gut feel", which arguably puts me on a path, as even scientists do, to justify their assumptions... OTOH, when I look at history, SIMPLE explanations usually tend to overpower COMPLICATED ones... So GENERALLY, my first impressions are SIMPLE (not convoluted)...
Now if you understand that, I'll answer your question...
I GENERALLY think that the government(s), military, & what have you, would NOT EVER pass up having the chance to spy on & control every single solitary person through technology & the internet...
It's too juicy...
& frankly... the government are not the brightest bulbs in the house... I mean look what happened after WWII, they practically had to get every German scientist & engineer over here (under cover), or we'd have never made the jump ahead...
So it is... I think... With the internet... In the end, they'll let the geeks do all the math and solve all the problems, then they'll 'cherry pick' the winners... I'm already convinced that Facebook & Google are largely co-opted...
I gotta admit that I use Google (really mainly because I'd started using it LONG BEFORE any of these ideas came to mind ~ the horse is long out of the barn there ~ & anyway, I really have nothing to hide... If they want to bust you bad enough, they can make up any excuse)... Facebook I don't use... I have an account, I think, but I've been on Facebook all of about 3 times in my life...
Anyway... Back to the point... There are likely to become a million & one 'diversions' that come & go... I'm sure half of them are PLANNED so as to get web users generally ANNOYED at hearing about them...
It's not unlike these citizens watch groups against TEAR OUR WRISTS... After 10 years of chasing Al-CIA-da, some people, in the end, start think "Patriot Acts" & NDAA are a good thing...
In the end there's not much you can do about it...
Frankly ~ I think the government are a bunch of paranoid idiots... They have to make up things to scare you with because even though they have all the best technology, military hardware, surveillence, & power, they want you to be afraid of a towel head with a box cutter...
Barry still p/o about the 1.2M "lost jobs: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/02/bls-warned-about-census-adjustment-in-december-2011/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+TheBigPicture+(The+Big+Picture)
Trying to prove a point about inconsistent data is fruitless.
@AmenRa
They beat him to a pulp over at ZH over the weekend...
I haven't even seen that much hatred levied against a Brian Wesbury or Dick Bove...
CV
Barry was only using BLS data and not other sources to try and confirm NFP. That's where he erred.
Barry was only using BLS data and not other sources...
That's what "shills" do...
Oddly enough, these constant Greece rumors have eased the burden of the SNB. Each rumor means the peg has less chance of being tested.
The "Ministry of Propaganda Formulated Truth" is gospel...
...and like he said in the article that prashant linked...
"You're just going to have to trust him on that one"...
Gotta love the Ritz....
I'm still waiting on Roger Ailes to get indicted....
I'm also still waiting on the Palin connection to the AZ shooting...
That guy has reached 5th degree douchebag status at this point.
cv--
re: your 10:59
yes, I hear ya..
though, some of the things that 'struck' me, were:
"...It’s Too Late To Save The Common Web..."
"...Oh, a few people supported me..."
"...They understood what was at stake..."
"...should be allowed to be a data roach motel..."
...
"...Today? It’s too late. My wife is a great example of why: she’s addicted to Facebook and Zynga and her iPhone apps..."
~~~
he mentions others in the 'whole' piece..
but, I thought some of his 'laments' sounded ~familiar..
the whole 'co-opted' thing, though, is a Fact..
all one has to do is 'Keyword': Google Facebook In-Q-Tel CIA
to understand 'more' of the "Story"..
AAIP
@AAIP
It's hardly even a shocker to think that they'd be involved as much as possible...
Goes with the territory...
~~~~
It's not a REASON I don't (or haven't) used a cellphone since about 2007 (I really, just, hate phones, and it's inconvenient to carry around glasses, which I don't need otherwise, to read text on them)...
But... an added benefit is that I'm not carrying around a 'homing device'... But that in of itself probably qualifies me as a tear our wrist...
cv--
"...carrying around a 'homing device'..."
that's, really, one of the beauties of it..
people Pay to carry the Tracking Device..
of course, that 'upgrade' was brought about under the rubric of..
http://search.yippy.com/search?input-form=clusty-simple&v%3Asources=webplus-ns-aaf&v%3Aproject=clusty&query=e-911
you know, 'For your Safety'..
AAIP
You have a credit card? Most have RFID chips in them so you're stil getting tracked. Cars with Onstar or Garmin get tracked also.
@Amen
Nope & nope... (anymore)
AmenRa,
yes, there, too..
*funny, though, OnStar can shut down 'your' vehicle--while it is moving (anywhere you go in the contiguous '48')..
ibid.
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