"The path of the righteous man is beset on all sides by the iniquities of the selfish and the tyranny of evil men. Blessed is he who, in the name of charity and good will, shepherds the weak through the valley of darkness, for he is truly his brother’s keeper and the finder of lost children. And I will strike down upon thee with great vengeance and furious anger those who would attempt to poison and destroy My brothers. And you will know My name is CDS when I lay My vengeance upon thee."
Creditcane™: My other name is LTRO.
SPXSpinning top day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. Holding above the 0.0% retrace (1359.44). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1363.46). QE2infinity.
DXYBullish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and held the 38.2% retrace (78.43). Failing SMA(21,55,89). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 79.67).
VIXSpinning top day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed SMA(21). Failing its 61.8% minor retrace (18.81). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 21.14).
GOLDBearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed its 38.2% retrace (1721.30). Tested and failed SMA(21,89,144). Daily 3LB reversal down (reversal is 1788.40). Still above monthly 3LB mid. Must have the precious.
EURUSDBearish engulfing day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Holding above SMA(89). Holding above its 61.8% minor retrace (1.3222). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1.3063).
JNKDoji day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Holding above all SMA's. Tested and failed its 61.8% minor retrace (40.10). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 39.92).
10YR YIELDBullish long day. Tested and held SMA(21,55). Midpoint below EMA(10). Holding above its 0.0% retrace (18.96). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 20.47).
WTISpinning top day. Still above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Failing its 38.2% minor retrace (107.86). No dally 3LB changes (reversal is 106.25). Not confirming the monthly 3LB reversal down.
SILVERBearish long day. Tested and failed SMA(233). Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and failed its 61.8% retrace (35.41). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 33.44).
BKXBearish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. Holding above its 50.0% retrace (43.76). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 43.62).
HYG/LQDBullish short day. Tested and held SMA(55). Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and held its 38.2% retrace (0.7808). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 0.7908).
AAPLSpinning top day. Still above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and held its 0.0% retrace (528.50). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 522.41).
RBOB GasolineBullish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. Failing its 0.0% retrace (3.30). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 3.32).
IT HAS BEGUN. YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED.
43 comments:
Looks like today was a "buy the rumor, sell the news" event with the LTRO.
Any thoughts about the RUT? It went sideways through the uptrend line off the Nov low and is barely clinging to the trading range of the last two weeks. Apparently the uptrend in the SPX (because of Apple) is all that matters...
ben22
That was a good interview. They should have done closeups of Becky when he talked down WB.
Eric K
Today was RUTs 3rd close below the gap up support price. I noticed that it really wants to hold 21SMA on the daily chart and the 55SMA on the weekly chart. Both are in jeopardy.
...should have done closeups of Becky...
AmenRa,
They did, they wound up on 'the cutting-room floor'..
~~
Creditcane™: My other name is LTRO.
given the 'Season', that has to be worth Three..~
ibid.
@Ben
"when I have a little downtime tomorrow I'd like to introduce an RSI trading strategy to the group. "
I'm all ears....or eyes as it were.
"They should have done closeups of Becky when he talked down WB."
Becky Quick would lick Warren's balls if it meant she kept getting to do the "exclusive" interviews with the "Oracle."
Liz Clayman, bless her, already does this...that's how she got the "Interview Warren" gig...
But, who knows...I think it's interesting that WB only allows the chicks to "follow him around."
"not to bring up buffett again, but as the richest investor out there I've heard him say that if you diversify its because you don't know what you're doing....."
That's probably the 'wisest' thing he's ever said....
Too bad he doesn't live it. He has one of the most diversified portfolios on the planet--rails, building materials, consumer goods, insurance, etc.
Also, his stock portfolio tends to further diversify the many business lines of Berkshire.
AT,
I just got home, I'll do it tonight,
I'm high energy right now....going to be a late one, just need to eat something first
thats a fair point Matthew
maybe it was more true for him back in the day?
Whoa. Just realized there was a 135 comment thread a few nights ago ... sorry to have missed the "fun."
Keep on keepin' on....
CV... you can keep coming here to rant if you want dude. It really doesn't bother me at all. I read want I wish...it's really simple to read your ideas or just 'scroll down' and ignore.
I could give a shit about popularity contests ... as I've said before...I'll post my crap and some thoughts here whether anyone comes or not. It really doesn't matter to me at all.
I like everyone who 'swings by' ... even the anonymous folks who reveal their defense mechanisms and insecurities through their words....
Peace out.
@Matthew..."touchee" to the WB comment....
Actually, even though I've jumped on CV lately it was just to give him a dose of his own ego driven medicine. I don't think he can help himself, and that's just the way it is. But I get tired of people pushing their own pet investing ideas when they really don't have anything new to add. As I've said before, gold is one of the worst investments over the last 30 years you could possibly make, and I have owned every last Kruggerrand I could afford during the Carter administration. But Volcker (or whatever) changed that, and gold is only up 100% in 30+ years.
No, you have to keep your ear to the ground. Good investments come and go, and throwing the same slider to major league traders will crush you.
Sold the oil a couple days ago...oh, well...
I mainly come here to get any ideas from a loosely knit group of full time investors..thanks for the site..
And CV, as far as I'm concerned you can ramble on about melting nickels as long as you like..
before I get started here, let me just say, American Idol..... best season ever this year......
anyway will do this in parts so blogger doesn't drop it, all these ideas here are not my own just things I've been using for several months now that have had a very direct impact on my trading, I learned these techniques from a book by Constance Brown, Technical Analysis for the Trading Professional. She also wrote a great fibonacci book that I've mentioned here before, I'm almost certain Ra has read it.
The book has an amazing number of tools in it, I've read a shit ton of books on technical analysis over the last year as I've been taking CMT exams and in my opinion it is by far the best one. In particular I wanted to pass on some introductory ideas about how to use RSI in trading with a trend. I'm guessing basically everyone here uses RSI or at minimum will make note of it in their trading strategy.
A common thing for traders to do with RSI is to look for overbought and oversold conditions, in general 20 and below is viewed as oversold and 80 or above is an overbought signal.
Here are a couple of baseline assumptions on RSI before a link to a chart:
1. Oscillators do not always travel between 0 and 100
2. In a bear market trend RSI will oscillate within a low end support zone of 20-30 and will have an upper resistance zone of 55-65.
3. In a bull market trend the RSI will oscillate within a low end support zone of 40-50 and will have an upper resistance zone of 80-90. Both numbers 2 and 3 are true regardless of the time frame you are looking at.
4. Any chart I show will use RSI (14)
Hoffer- thanks for this from a day or two ago-
"Man sacrifices his health in order to make money. Then he sacrifices his money to recuperate his health. Then he is so anxious about the future that he does not enjoy the present; the result being that he does not live in the present or the future; he lives as if he is never going to die and then he dies having never really lived."
no doubt- no-one reaches the end of their days wishing they had bought those fine shoes they always wanted
btw, check out the apple home page
hopefully this link works:
http://tinypic.com/view.php?pic=33nx3cg&s=5
spx daily chart, one year trailing, arithmetic scale
I blanked out the standard 70/30 lines on RSI in this chart and instead have the green lines on the RSI which are the "bull range" the high marker on that chart is 80 and the low green marker is at 50.
the red lines on the RSI are "bear range" and the high red line is at 65 and the low one is at 30. I'll slightly adjust the extreme ranges for individual stocks/commodities, etc. depending on the name.
Here's are a quick summary of my notes at each number marker:
Point 1: This was the first warning that the character of the market was changing last year. Slightly cut off from this chart is some negative divergence that built in the Feb 2011 peak. In the sideways move in mid March RSI tries to hold the 50 line but cannot.
Point 2: The market makes a new nominal high however the RSI is capped at roughly the 65 marker, the top of the bearish resistance zone for RSI trend. This also creates larger negative divergence from before February.
Point 3: This is now the second time that RSI drops to the bear market support zone and can only get back to the 65 level in the rally that follows. This is telling us that the trend has changed and the underlying market is not as strong as it was before. Notice on all points 1, 2, and 3 that RSI tried to consolidate at the green 50 marker but gave it up each time so the bears kept winning control there. If you had combined this chart with Andy's wave charts at this time you are OUT of the market.
Point 4: Clearly at point 4 you have your first sign of positive divergence on this chart and magically it's happening just below the 50 marker indicating that the bulls are trying to take control again. Remember the bottom of the bullish RSI trend is 40.
Point 5: here again RSI is rejected at 65 and so the bull is not looking as strong. On the pullback however we can see relative to 4 that RSI does not entirely give up the bull range. You have to use some common sense on what is going on here. In wave terms this is the type of action in RSI that you'd see in a wave 2....the first corrective wave in an upward trend. Not saying thats what this is, maybe its the Z wave, maybe it's Neelys, but I think you get the idea.
Point 6: here the price pullback shows RSI holding the bull market support range nicely, shouldn't be any huge surprise then we got a large move from there and RSI had stayed very strong since not cracking much below 65 on this daily chart where Point 7 is marked.....this chart is just a coulple days ago so there you have it.
Now, if you you look really close at the RSI ranges themselves, you are also going to see that they make fibonacci retracements much like price does. You can purchase a Proportional Divider tool to easily measure that on your computer screen or you can mess around with the settings and have the computer do it.
here's an example of a shorter term chart from the other day combined with EMA bollingers on standard setting, this is a 15 minute chart using the RSI ranges.....as can be seen its in the bearish range however the larger RSI range is clearly still bullish and this chart is sideways....you know, the other way markets can correct instead of going down.
Lets presume as a result of the larger RSI trend you are long and so you weren't short at the start of this period. One thing you could have done is traded counter trend long with the two highlighted closes outside the lower bollinger which provided nice set ups with the RSI pivot......otoh, I've been buying some insurance for longs or just booking them as observing lower degree trends down from the daily the market has been warning that the daily bullish trend has the potential to roll over and I'm also spying the change in the COT, an uptick in distribution days, etc.... the last several weeks........
http://tinypic.com/r/2qn8h90/5
Thank for that Ben. I'll need to analyze it better tomorrow at work. Will provide some feedback....
ben22
Added your 1st chart.
cool Ra
hope that stuff is helpful
you may need to slightly adjust the ranges depending on what you are trading, a stock like GMCR is going to need wider ranges than what i'd use for SPX
Thx B22, printed it, will read/study tonight on a red-eye to the mainland.
just to be clear on the one post above when I say "large trend" I just mean that the daily chart RSI is still bullish while the 15 minute chart is bearish and so that is why I said a long trade would have been counter trend on the 15 minute chart
10:29
CV books and gold takes a haircut. Coincidence? Not as long as the Rothschild clan is controlling HuffPo.
Buy your gold now or else you will be guiding a plow on Warren Buffet's farmland whilst staring at the back of a mule's ass when the oil runs out. The primary natural gas you'll be experiencing then will be methane.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/isda-unanimous-no-payout-greek-cds
ISDA Unanimous - No Payout On Greek CDS
Now that CDS is obviously not a hedge what happens to the CDS market?
http://www.rttnews.com/1831811/portugal-jan-industrial-output-retail-sales-fall-at-slower-pace.aspx
"Separately, the agency said Portugal's seasonally adjusted retail sales turnover fell at a slower rate of 8.5 percent in January than December's 10.3 percent decline."
...You just have to know where to find the silver lining...
Yesterday I had mentioned Michael Steinhardt's appearence on CNBC where he had some choice commentary on St. Warren.
Anyway, here it is, if you didn't catch it last spring its worth the 16 minutes, scroll to bottom of the article:
http://dealbreaker.com/2011/04/michael-steinhardt-wants-to-know-how-long-before-people-like-cnbc-wake-up-to-warren-buffetts-reality/
I would also just like to say, what he discusses in the first few minutes is basically close to 100% of the world I currently operate in
the financial advisor business has exactly 0 to do with performance, it's instead what he said, it has to do with how much assets you have under mgmt that determines how much you make, not how good you are
I know you all know this but who else makes this point on tv?
If AAPL closes below 535.70 then it will have fully engulfed yesterdays spinning top candle. But it would be difficult to short AAPL because of their announcement coming up. Decisions, decisions.
I guess it's expected to see gold and USD up at the same time since gold got (the old school) beatdown yesterday.
SL(Song Lyric)OTD:
"Sometimes I wonder if the world's so small...That we can never get away from the sprawl...
Living in the sprawl...
Dead shopping malls rise like mountains beyond mountains.... And there's no end in sight....I need the darkness, someone please cut the lights."
"Sprawl II" by Arcade Fire
just, to 'chisel' this one into the 'pixels'..
AAIP
"...But it would be difficult to short AAPL because of their announcement coming up. Decisions, decisions..."
AmenRa,
I hear that, though, the 'Announcement' could be a *real 'Sell the News'-style Event..
AAPL, now, may be one of those Times where 'One' has to "Flare their Lips back" and, just, 'Sell'/'Short'..
the 'Options Chain' is pretty frothy, too..
ibid.
good luck with AAPL options
shark tank....a tiny one, full of great whites
this..
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/isda-unanimous-no-payout-greek-cds
ISDA Unanimous - No Payout On Greek CDS
Now that CDS is obviously not a hedge what happens to the CDS market?
truly, 'Blows my Mind'..
ibid.
Mc22,
how do you think the 'Chain' became 'Frothy'..?
shark tank....a tiny one, full of great whites
ibid.
its always like that in there ibid
huge holding for hedgies so I'm always looking at AAPL options
I've nailed some, I've also been nailed
the move up in AAPL has been amazing, the market cap it tacked on apparently is larger than almost all companies in the S&P, also pretty sure the rally size is larger than the market cap of the entire Russell 600.
epic
McB,
though, 'Sharks', or no, some of those 'tions 'pay off', yes?
what I was attempting to allude to, here:
though, the 'Announcement' could be a *real 'Sell the News'-style Event..
AAPL, now, may be one of those Times where 'One' has to "Flare their Lips back" and, just, 'Sell'/'Short'..
~~
"..the move up in AAPL has been amazing, the market cap it tacked on apparently is larger than almost all companies in the S&P, also pretty sure the rally size is larger than the market cap of the entire Russell 600.
epic.."
x2
AAIP
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-01/israel-to-begin-investing-reserves-in-u-s-equities-today-1-.html
Israel to Begin Investing Reserves in U.S Equities Today
WTF?!?
I thought the CBs job was to facilitate transfers between countries using gold, bonds, etc. Is this a way to support other CBs before the EU implodes? Why don't they just buy more USTs?
AAIP,
I hear you, but I mostly ignore "news", as most of it isn't
also, I'd guess some of that froth is not coming from sharks, more like Flounders.....if you catch my drift, or more commonly....John E.
http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=AAPL
~544.47
that's an 'ugly' looking "-stick"..(on the Chart)
ibid.
could be a hanging man but volume wasn't a distribution day and the lower shadow isn't very long
aapl
as an aside, given the amount of 'Grief' heaped upon poor ol' 'John E.', it's a wonder that 'Dude' can, even, "find his way, Home, at Night.."
good thing for..
http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=GRMN
no?
ibid.
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