"Remember this?"
Creditcane™: I'm the defensive player of the year as I reject closes above 13k on the Dow.
SPXSpinning top day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. Tested and held the 0.0% retrace (1359.44). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1362.21). QE2infinity.
DXYBullish harami day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and held the 38.2% retrace (78.43). Failing SMA(21,55,89). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 79.67).
VIXBearish long day (didn't confirm bullish thrusting). Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and failed SMA(21). Tested and failed its 61.8% minor retrace (18.81). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 21.14).
GOLDBearish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Holding above its 38.2% retrace (1721.30). Still above all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1717.70). Still above monthly 3LB mid. Must have the precious.
EURUSDDark cloud cover day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Holding above SMA(89). Holding above its 61.8% minor retrace (1.3222). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1.3063).
JNKSpinning top day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Holding above all SMA's. Holding above its 50.0% minor retrace (39.86). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 39.43).
10YR YIELDBearish short day. Tested and failed SMA(21). Midpoint below EMA(10). Holding above its 0.0% retrace (18.96). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 20.47).
WTIBearish short day. Still above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and failed its 50.0% minor retrace (109.54). No dally 3LB changes (reversal is 106.25). Not confirming the monthly 3LB reversal down.
SILVERSpinning top day. Failing SMA(233). Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and failed its 61.8% retrace (35.41). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 33.30).
BKXBullish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. Holding above its 50.0% retrace (43.76). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 43.62).
HYG/LQDBullish long day. Tested and held SMA(21,55). Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and held its 38.2% retrace (0.7808). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 0.7908).
CRBDoji day (bearish harami?). Midpoint above EMA(10). Holding above SMA(144). Tested and held its 38.2% retrace (325.01). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 322.45).
EUFNSpinning top day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and held SMA(21). Tested and failed its 38.2% retrace (18.04). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 18.34).
RBOB GasolineBearish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. Tested and held its 0.0% retrace (2.93). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 3.24).
BRK.A/GOLD (monthly info)trend=down
low= 59.70
rev= 76.83; mid= 68.27
IT HAS BEGUN. YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED.
"The path of the righteous man is beset on all sides by the iniquities of the selfish and the tyranny of evil men. Blessed is he who, in the name of charity and good will, shepherds the weak through the valley of darkness, for he is truly his brother’s keeper and the finder of lost children. And I will strike down upon thee with great vengeance and furious anger those who would attempt to poison and destroy My brothers. And you will know My name is the Lord when I lay My vengeance upon thee."
124 comments:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nG7lDY-s24g
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/its-official-sp-cuts-greece-selective-default-cc
It's Official: S&P Cuts Greece To (Selective) Default From CC
Of course Greece's FinMin quickly came out and said that S&P has no influence over Greek banks.
Love the Pulp Fiction reference at the end...
Basically, that movie is my #1 ALL TIME Best Movie. Ever. Period. End of Story.
Marcellus Wallace after getting raped by Zed:
Butch: "Are we ok?"
Wallace: "Nah man...I'm pretty fucking far from OK."
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_kBwFPSa54w
ooooh soooo close, for those keeping an eye on the 18's...
1375(major) - huge wall to jump over, couldn't do it last year, a given this year?
1406(minor) - target above, "if" it gets here, expect a turning point
1325(minor) - next lower level then
1294(minor)
Andy T
full quote:
Butch: You okay?
Marsellus: Nah, man. I'm pretty fucking far from okay.
[Zed, who had just been shot by Marsellus, screams and moans in agony]
Butch: What now?
Marsellus: What now? Let me tell you what now. I'm gonna call a couple of hard, pipe-hitting niggas to go to work on the homes here with a pair of pliers and a blow torch. [to Zed] You hear me talking, hillbilly boy? I ain't through with you by a damn sight. I'm gonna get medieval on your ass.
Butch: I meant, what now between me and you.
Marsellus: Oh, that "what now." I tell you what now between me and you. There is no "me and you". Not no more.
Butch: So we cool?
Marsellus: Yeah, we cool. Two things: one, don't tell nobody about this. This shit is between me, you, and Mr. soon-to-be-living-the-rest-of-his-short-ass-life-in-agonizing-pain rapist here. It ain't nobody else's business. Two, you leave town tonight, right now, and when you gone, you stay gone, or you be gone. You lost all your LA privileges. Deal?
Butch: Deal.
Marsellus: Now get your ass out of here.
http://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Pulp_Fiction
@ben (from other thread)
"What? if you are implying they get "income" through the banking business fine but thats not to do with the gold standard or more specifically from gold itself, obviously since they still get profits and we haven't been on one (a gold standard) for decades
~~~~
Again, I'm not being cross with you here, just floating the other side of the argument...
Which basically started with whether or not "gold" pays a dividend...
- To the standard bearer of gold, it pays no dividend, or yields no stream of income that I can think of...
- But to a central bank cartel, the answer is quite different... While I realize that the US Dollar is free floating as we speak, it didn't start out that way (as, no doubt, you know)...
So my argument is, that the person (or persons), who use their own gold supply, basically, as collateral, to start a central banking regime, have started a business, which, later on, provides them with an income stream...
Oddly enough, as we have found, even when the initial "gold backing" status is removed, because of the pervasive structure of the business entity, the income stream continues...
A ponzi is a ponzi (no matter what form it takes)...
Let's say I want to start one and I begin by selling two people shares in it... Maybe to get it going I need some kind of physical collateral... Something "of value" that can convince the first two buyers that they're not just buying vapor... It could be anything, a boat, some land, whatever...
After the game gets going though, it's not necessary to even have the initial collateral... The wider the ponzi gets (with fractional ownership), there would be too many claims to the original collateral anyway... So at that point, the game just progresses with the new entries only mainly concerned with the layers immediately above & below themselves...
& the unique nature of this ponzi scheme (called the US Dollar), is that the ones at the top of the pyramid have managed to pull two unbelievable stunts...
1. They removed any claims of redemption to any original collateral that might have existed at the onset...
2. The game itself is structured so that they can continue to collect interest, in perpetuity, on new debt that can be created in the system... IOW ~ the game is basically over already, but they have cleverly managed to float the latest round of entrants... Which is like saying that imagine the game went from 1...2...4...8...16...32...64...128... & now it's impossible to find 256... No problem ~ because since there are no longer claims to anything, the system itself provides the authority to PRINT 256 new entrants (or even 512 ~ if it comes to that)... It doesn't cost them anything to do it... They just run the printing presses (and the people who are still stuck in the game (at levels 16...32...64... & 128 are more than happy for that to happen because they still haven't re-couped their original investment)...
Meanwhile ~ the 'few' (who are at the 1...2...& 4 levels) are just playing a game of 'time'... The longer 'time' goes on, they continue to collect interest payments on the structure they created (which is 6 getting from 248)...
If they are smart (& no doubt they are)... Since were talking about 'currency' here, they are using that currency to buy up important new collateral (land, PM's, industrial metals, key infrastructure)... So when the game finally ends (& it will), & everyone becomes destitute, they can come along afterwards and offer a solution (which is basically to start the game all over again)...
I doubt you think that's preposterous, because in doing all your financial industry studies, no doubt you study the nature of, panics, crashes, & bubbles... The most AMAZING thing about those is that despite the numerous ones that have occurred throughout history, nobody ever seems to learn anything by it...
CV,
Sorry man but you are not really adding to the discussing but rather taking away from it or basically you are on another topic, the only one you can ever talk about in fact. On some level its kind of sad that this turned into a conversation about the secret (well, not secret for you) Rothschild banking business, ponzi schemes, and the word fiat repeated an infinite number of times. The only thing you didn't do is claim "physical, bitches"
You still seem to miss the point on gold, had space rocks been considered "money" at the time then the bankers would have backed paper with those instead......then it turns into a discussion on a ponzi scheme and what the bankers are doing behind the scenes (which you of course know all about)
this was one attempt for me to have a discussion at this site about where people put capital to work, instead of speaking about the issue at hand it turned into a discussion on how bad of a person WB is and how the central bankers created a ponzi scheme from gold and therefore gold does create an income stream
um......ok, I guess you made your point, I suppose its your only point in fact
can't say I didn't try.....
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/ecb-finds-defaulted-bonds-be-ineligible-collateral-bundesbank-stuck-holding-defaulted-greek-bag
As ECB Finds Defaulted Bonds To Be Ineligible Collateral, Bundesbank Is Stuck Holding The Defaulted Greek Bag
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/02/28/ecb-greece-collateral-idUSL5E8DS1MF20120228
ECB puts Greek banks on emergency aid after downgrade
Durable goods MoM -4.0% versus consensus -0.7%, ex-Trans -3.2%.
@ben
Yeah you're right... Your boy Buffett is right... Bernanke is right...
Gold has nothing to do with money (& never has for the past 5,000 years)...
I'll stop with my silly arguments...
Here... This is something more people around here might find useful...
Your boy James Altucher...
http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/dow-going-20-000-within-184914186.html
wow, how sad you are CV and no doubt you can and will, continue with your "message"
and now WB is my boy as is Altucher, thats hilarious
what the hell does James Altucher talking about the dow have anything to do with anything?
you are angry because you can't address what buffett said, you'd rather talk about central bankers, the new world order, etc. of course! Paper is for losers! Physical!
and when on earth did anyone say gold had nothing to do with money? Seriously, find that claim made by anyone. If you can't find it, which you won't, well how about you shut the fuck up on that front?
....this conversation is about what you would rather own and keep, a productive asset or simply money, a greater fool concept no matter if its gold or dollars, sea shells or four leaf clovers.
so here we are as I already said earlier, just another retarded comment because you are so wrapped up in your own nonsense
anyway, I'm about ready to go trade, have fun researching the new world order today, or whatever it is you are going to do while you fight the cartel with every waking breath
While you all are watching Altucher... I think what I'm going to do is go search for those (what were) $40 worth of Brazilian Cruzados (from back in 1987-88) that I was referring to here the other day...
Maybe if I can find them... I can 'invest' them in something now I start gaining myself an income stream...
The problem is... THEY ARE WORTH ZERO... They are unredeemable & unexchangeable as currency anywhere in the world as we speak...
Now just think... When I headed to the airport in Rio that day & stopped by a local dealer and bought about a tenth of an ounce of gold (which was around $480 an ounce back then), & tossed that "piece of 8" (we'll call it), into a can...
I could stand here today and take it to a local coin shop and get $170 cash handed over to me...
It's really hilarious now if you go and actually read the post from Kid Dynamite, he talks directly to CV in it, right here:
"Goldbugs will get all defensive here, but just listen to what Buffett is explaining, emphasis mine:"
“The major asset in this category is gold, currently a huge favorite of investors who fear almost all other assets, especially paper money (of whose value, as noted, they are right to be fearful). Gold, however, has two significant shortcomings, being neither of much use nor procreative. True, gold has some industrial and decorative utility, but the demand for these purposes is both limited and incapable of soaking up new production. Meanwhile, if you own one ounce of gold for an eternity, you will still own one ounce at its end. What motivates most gold purchasers is their belief that the ranks of the fearful will grow. During the past decade that belief has proved correct. Beyond that, the rising price has on its own generated additional buying enthusiasm, attracting purchasers who see the rise as validating an investment thesis. As “bandwagon” investors join any party, they create their own truth — for a while.”
and here again:
"Buffett agrees with you that the dollar’s value is of questionable staying power – he’s not arguing that with you (and when I say “you” I’m speaking to those who are reacting defensively as they read this – you know who you are). You might respond that dollars are also not of much use nor procreative – and I don’t think he’d disagree with you! Well, dollars are sometimes procreative – in periods of positive interest rates – but not currently."
Similar story with my friend (Irene R), who was from a wealthy family in Argentina during the peso collapse very close to the same time period...
Her family had a significant portfolio invested in all the ususal (stocks, bonds, etc.)... It all got vaporized when the peso collapsed...
Towards the end they were fortunate on a few fronts...
- the husband fled to Mexico City (& managed to get a decent amount of holdings out of the currency before it collapsed)...
- The mother, fortunately, had a high rise penthouse in downtown Buenos Aires, which was paid for, and used as much money as fast as possible to buy hard assets (that was mostly 'cars' back then because PM's in Argentina were hard to come by)... She bought a few used Honda Civics, which she later used 'as currency' AFTER the whole thing blew over...
- Irene came to live with me in Los Angeles... She lived at my apartment for 2 years, before I later moved out and on... Irene still lives in LA & is partly supported by her father (who, as I said, was lucky to set up shop in Mexico City & still lives around there)...
@ben
“The major asset in this category is gold, currently a huge favorite of investors who fear almost all other assets, especially paper money (of whose value, as noted, they are right to be fearful)...
Gold, however, has two significant shortcomings, being neither of much use nor procreative. True, gold has some industrial and decorative utility, but the demand for these purposes is both limited and incapable of soaking up new production."
~~~
Go tell Kid Dynamite to tell that to my friend Irene (described above)...
She'll laugh him right out of town...
It's the same with any paper money...
At some point they all blow up (whether it's a cruzado, or a peso, or a ruble, or a Zimbabwe dollar)...
The only thing the DOLLAR has going for it is that it is linked to the oil trade (petrodollar)... Countries who still 'sign on' to that idea still need dollars to settle accounts for crude...
Countries who are sick & tired of taking ever more worthless dollars (like Iraq, Libya, & now Iran), all end up getting 'regime changed' due to the ability of the US Navy to 'force project'...
When that game ends (before or after Bruce & company decide to put the 'whuppin stick' on Iran), then you'll REALLY see what the dollar is worth (which means that all of your 'investments' & 'income streams' will lose a significant amount of purchasing power ~ & it is not beyond the realm of possibility that they become worth nothing at all)...
In the aftermath (whether it be 6 months later, or perhaps even a half generation later)...
Someone will come up with the idea that what we need is a new central banking system... It will be suggested that the system be backed by GOLD (not farmland, not moon rocks, not puka shells, not pokemon cards)...
So Warren Buffett (or Kid Dynamite), WILL NOT get to be the central bankers)...
Now ~ I won't make the argument that IF (and that's a big IF), someone like Buffett manages to retain his hold on railroads, & coca cola, & GEICO insurance, & Sees candies, that those won't be viable industries going forward (same way Thyssen & Krupp managed to do so through the Weimar times)...
But that's another story... Buffett would, no doubt, have to whore himself out to the right power brokers in the government that presides over such an event... But we've already seen that he's pretty capable of doing that...
Which is why I say "he's talking his book"...
again, if you took the less than 5 minutes required to read that you'd realize thats buffett saying that, not kid dynamtie,
kid dynamite warned people just like you that your reaction to this would be to get defensive and you already proved him correct on that front
I suppose the summary here from you is that its buffett so he must be wrong and since you have more life experience than everyone in the world, you are going to tell us how it "really" is....
and so here you are telling stories about Irene that still totally miss the point
stop talking about paper, clown (stocks, bonds), buffett isn't, get it through your head he wasn't talking about buying XOM stock, or stock in a farm, he just said yesterday again that buying stocks isn't as good of an idea as buying an income producing asset right now, he's talking about owning the business, and so his whole entire point was it doesn't effing matter what the currency is, it doesn't matter that the argentinian peso collapsed
that is pointless!
unreal
ben22
So the idea is to get your hands on a productive/income producing asset no matter what kind of currency is used. The currency may devalue over time but the asset will continue to produce.
he wasn't talking about buying XOM stock, or stock in a farm, he just said yesterday again that buying stocks isn't as good of an idea as buying an income producing asset right now, he's talking about owning the business
~~~~
Oh, so that's what he's talking about (buying an income producing asset? a 'business'?)...
You yourself have adhered to the notion that business 'thrives' during credit expansion & contracts during credit contraction...
The commercial real estate market, as we speak, is being held together by the tactic of floating loans to large commercial real estate enties (namely ~ shopping mall & retail outlet commercial space)...
Loews itself has 20% more stores than they did 6 years ago with only a 1% increase in aggregate sales... Best Buy is on the ropes... Sears/K-Mart is all but dead & if you go to many shopping malls (which feature "anchor stores", well, the "anchor stores" nowadays are Dollar Generals)...
My mom worked for the Rouse Company (which built & managed many marquis shopping malls back in the day including South Street Sea Port in NYC, & Faneuil Hall in Boston)... Rouse was eventually sold to General Growth (Chicago) of which I'm sure you've heard of...
The HQ of Rouse was lakefront property in Columbia, Md. GGC came in when Rouse was sold... It's a vacant building now (on prime property)...
Maybe Buffett wants to buy it so he can sell some "Sees Candies" from it...
Buffett is going to tell you anything yo convince you that the way the system is set up now, then those types of investments are going to be alright (because he happens to own things like coke, & GEICO insurance, etc., which profit off of the system maintaining the status quo)...
~~~~
Just as a joke, I'd laugh my ass off if some politicial were to come in to power and pass a law that said that all insurance companies must accept premium payments in dollars, but had to pay claims in gold...
He'd change his tune in a heartbeat...
Ra,
thank god somebody gets it, you just summarized it perfectly, I'm still waiting for someone to poke a real hole in that line of thought.
If you buy a rental property for cash, and you have a renter, what the hell do you care if they pay you in dollars or if everyone starts paying you in space rocks because thats "money" now, then you go use the spacerocks for whatever, food, soap, etc. So the house used to be priced in dollars and the conversion of space rocks brought the "value" down....again, so what? the point is you are getting an income stream from it, its not a worthless asset even if dollars are no longer worth anything
if you have a 100 acre field that produces X amount of Corn or wheat or soybeans or whatever every year and people are now exchanging space rocks for goods and services it doesn't matter that the dollar doesn't exist, you bought the farm, it produces something moving forward, you exchange for whatever "money" is.....
If you take your dollars and buy 10 ounces of gold and everything collapses youv'e still got 10 ounces of gold paying you 0 and with the future potential of paying you 0
"You yourself have adhered to the notion that business 'thrives' during credit expansion & contracts during credit contraction"
wrong
wrong
wrong
and
wrong again
income vs. capital gains now
you do know the difference yes?
some assets can still produce income during credit expansion or contraction, they may or may not provide capital gains in each environment, but the point is, if credit deflation takes place people still need somewhere to live, they still need food to eat, and they even want to have a little fun here and there, even if they have little to no "money" to spend on such things.
why would you bring up Best Buy, ....totally irrelevant
they don't produce anything by themself, they "get money" by selling other companies products to consumers, in fact, they have even tried to change the store around so they are producing some income on their own by introducing the geek squad, but clearly that alone can't make best buy a very sound business....and not the type of candidate for what is being discussed
its the same thing with Sears and K-mart
Why does AMZN & YHOO want to go after Facebook now? What about the earlier social networks? What about sites like eHarmony which also uses the patents?
Jesus Christ...
OK... Since Amen Ra totally gets it... I'll highlight it here...
the idea is to get your hands on a productive/income producing asset no matter what kind of currency is used. The currency may devalue over time but the asset will continue to produce
~~~~
It's simple... Any decision comes down to ROI (return on investment)...
The fact is that over 80% of start-up businesses fail... & even if they somehow manage to turn a profit, they involve many hours of hard work & personal sacrifice than any wage paying job on the planet...
So...
- 80% chance you go bankrupt
- If you're lucky enough NOT TO, you get to work your fingers to the bone
- If you enjoy doing that, in an environment were talking about NOW (I'm assuming Buffett wasn't talking about 17th century mercantilism), you're faced with a regulatory environment that is oppressive
- not to mention the fact that if your business is deemed 'critical', it could end up being nationalized in an emergency state
OK class... the bell has rung... Let's all shuffle in to Dr. Phillip Barbay's class for todays lecture...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YlVDGmjz7eM
Actually the bell already rang, and B22 was the bus driver taking us to skool. Sometimes it's better to listen than to talk.
I'm not interested in 'skool'... I'm interested in REAL LIFE...
& since ben seems interested in 'investing' in income producing assets (which I glean from this statement)
buffett isn't, get it through your head he wasn't talking about buying XOM stock, or stock in a farm, he just said yesterday again that buying stocks isn't as good of an idea as buying an income producing asset right now, he's talking about owning the business
I'm wondering two things...
1. I'm guessing that the portfolio accounts that ben manages for clients must be going into start-up businesses... If not, why would he suggest the less favorable of (ROI) for the money...
2. I'm really wondering that if I had a sizeable bank account (all in cash) right now... Say... $1 - $5 million... What would be a good 'business' that I should think about starting RIGHT NOW, to start getting myself my income stream?
Leave "guns & ammunition" out of the picture, as those are about the only things that are thriving these days...
State Street Investor Confidence 86.5 previous 92.4
Consumer Confidence 70.8 previous 61.1
Who will be correct?
Last thing I'll say about Buffett...
I'll lay odds that if his "public" rhetoric was tantamount to 180 degrees opposite of what he says (IOW ~ if he were banging the table & telling everyone to buy gold)...
YOU'D NEVER SEE HIM ON TV...
He'd be banished to the hinterlands like Ron Paul, or Kyle Bass that the MSM avoids like they were a disease...
Anyway... Thank God that the MSM has everyone's best interests in mind when they choose who to put on TV, who they decide to write favorable stories about, & who they decide to label a crackpot...
The LAST THING we need is someone like Ron Paul around telling us we ought to abandon these military force projections & bring the troops home... That would be a HORRIBLE idea right?...
Too many towel heads, with box cutters, in caves, (producing nano-thermite) that we have to weed out...
OK... I'll stop now...
Riddle my logic (illogic)... with all the bullets in your arsenal... Y'all can have the last word (be sure to comment using a clever fake name if you're too much of a pussy to sign your own name to it)...
I'm done talking about it...
forgot to attach a final link (which goes towards substantiating my points with regards to the MSM, & Ron Paul ~ which, if you got lost, is a main point in my argument that if gold is so unimportant as an asset, WHY the never ending smear campaign AGAINST IT, which goes as far as to recruit Buffett types to get out there spread the gospel of business ownership)?
~~~~~~~
Why is the GOP, or MSM, or 'Likud' party so afraid of Ron Paul?
http://www.prisonplanet.com/ron-paul-is-being-cheated-out-of-the-republican-nomination.html
Anon (10:44) - Some of the short bus passengers are too busy licking the windows to be paying attention to what is actually taking place on the bus.
You see they may not be able to tell you what went on, during the ride to skool, but they can tell you what flavor the window is.
Mangy Ass Mutt
@Amen Ra
read 'em & weep...
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/sheer-mirror-image-insanity-sp-hits-new-multi-year-highs-10-year-bond-slides-below-190
---TEXT---
"There no longer are any words left to explain what is going on in this centrally planned market (technically "enantiomeric" may be a word, but nobody would get it). It is sheer and utter bipolar insanity, when the S&P can hit multi-year highs even as the 10 year drops below 1.90%, something which in the pre-New Normal would be completely impossible. We wish luck to anyone "trading" a market (read trading alongside Central Bank X, with momentum escalated courtesy of Algo Y, regulated by the SEC no less) which is now pricing in extreme deflation and inflation at the same time, or, simply said, much more QE from the Chairman, record EUR Brent be damned. Oh, and with crude (in USD) back on track to surpass $110, we can't wait for the Department of Truth to tell us how February consumer confidence is literally off the charts."
CV
I'm still trying to figure what turned around the 10yr yield between 10:25-10:40. Like the article mentioned with yields down the market usually follows suit. One of them had to give. It appears the 10yr yield wussed out and cried "Tio!"
I am bearish on the economy long term but I ain't crazy either. The SPX closed above the monthly 3LB mid the week 12/23/11. The weekly 3LB reversed up on 10/28/11 and was confirmed on 1/13/12. That indicated prices were heading higher even though it was BS.
@Amen Ra
While this is far from being the "be all end all" of any argument... I'll toss a couple of ideas out...
- This is a 'leap year'... With (one stinkin' extra day) in February, you can bet your hat that some stat peeps, in some room, will figure out a way to use the extra day of productivity to come out with some positive YOY comparisons to last February...
- Also... as Biderman (from Trim Tabs) just pointed out, the housing market is showing unusual signs of, well, not falling apart... His (rightful) justification was that it's been an unusually mild winter in most of the United States (combined with a sub 2 handle 10 year, which is usually where mortgages are benchmarked)... I already said here that we just sold the house in MD (it closed just 2 weeks ago)... I can tell you that the mild weather helped...
Frankly ~ I think they're scraping the barrel to find any aspect that they can put a positive spin on... The hardest thing to keep a lid on will be gasoline prices, but at this point, I believe, the main objective is to keep things stumbling forward until as close to the elections (& hopefully beyond) as possible...
While I'm not talking 'straight line' here... I'm sticking with something like a 1474 call (S&P) that I'd made before (especially if the level above last years high can be maintained)...
Of course (DISCLOSURE)... I have ZERO POSITIONS wagered on that outcome... I'm JTOL (so take these comments with a grain of salt)...
I may whine & carry on about what I believe has become a folly (with regards to paper markets)...
But it doesn't mean they don't interest me or I don't watch what they're doing...
I like dogs too... But you're not likely to find me at a Greyhound track...
Looks like "JBTFD" might be making a return to the stage...
@Amen
If you're looking for some new artwork to use for a thread at some point, I just mocked something up & stuck it here...
http://traders-anonymous.blogspot.com/2010/01/daily-wrap.html
I'm still waiting for someone to poke a real hole in that line of thought. ...
McB,
have you read any of the 'Business Cases', of Companies, that have 'survived' "Major Inflations" (U.S. in the '70s) or "Currency 'Instabilities'" (Brazil/Argentina) ?
needless to say, that Toboggan-Run ain't for the 'faint of Heart'...
IOW, the 'transition' is not seemless, for "Anyone"..
~~
also, in your 'Rental Property'-hypothetical..
obv., you know that the 'Renter' needs to be able to Keep his/her Job (at the min.), as well as, still afford to 'Commute', Eat, Clothe themselves...et al., etc.
LSS: "Counterparty Risk is, still, higher, than many as-/pre-sume..
ibid.
O, to be Clear, I'M not saying that PM's are the Panacea..as a Matter of Fact, I haven't purchased, additional, PMs since Ag went 20+(the second time)..
"You see they may not be able to tell you what went on, during the ride to skool, but they can tell you what flavor the window is."
Classic
Right on Time..
"Warren Buffett deserves the public’s respect. His great success and apparent modesty, kindness and reason in a field replete with promoters and chest thumpers have allowed him to stand out in our society. He is to most an honest broker among charlatans, uniquely capable of separating truth from fiction, the way it is and will always be versus cockeyed theories touted by ignorant newbies. He has been the most successful and most charitable financier of the last hundred years, and his proclamations become, ipso facto, the common perception of truth.
Buffett may be a sage, a wizard, and an oracle when it comes to nominal relative value pricing of financial assets, but it is well worth noting that Buffett’s proclamations are not necessarily worthy of being considered “fact” in matters unrelated to finance, just as the legendary Joe Paterno’s judgment seems to have been sorely lacking when it came to sorting out matters unrelated to a winning football program.
That has not seemed to stop Mr. Buffett from expressing wide ranging views from tax policy to the value of gold. In fact, over the last two weeks — in a Forbes interview, in Berkshire Hathaway’s annual report and this morning on CNBC — Buffett chose to comment on gold even though he does not have a publicly disclosed position in it. We must assume his aggressive gold comments have been meant to force the price of gold lower. (We do not know why he is so interested in doing so though we do have a reasonable theory, for another time). We strongly disagree with Mr. Buffett’s views and we thought it would be best to explore his comments and provide our counter-arguments.
Productive Assets vs. True Savings..."
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/02/golden-boy/
ibid.
@AAIP (1:28)
Classic timing!
I'll hit the highlights (while driving with one hand on the short yellow bus)...
Gold is no more or less “lifeless” than Dollars, Euros or Yen. One needs to lend each in order to have a return on them. (We argue one would be foolish to lend gold and receive interest denominated in other currencies when gold is relatively scarce — and getting scarcer — to them.) As for being “not of much use”, yes gold is pretty useless… until it isn’t.
To make my sustained argument more relevant, I'll align that thought more closely with the "invest in an income producing business argument"... Perhaps I'm mistaken, but the UNDERLYING THEME to everything is, or ought to be, ROI... As such, if someone believes that the best ROI can be made (in the long run), by hunkering down with a few bars of gold thru a crisis, then that is a WISE business decision... In that respect, it bears close resemblance to someone who buys 'puts', or goes to cash (if they were an investor), or an established business owner laying off employees, outsourcing, shuttering factories, or lightening up on inventory...
~~~~~
The great bubble from 1981 to 2006 was in unreserved global credit distribution, which explains the funding behind Mr. Buffett’s market psychology discussion
That's EXACTLY what I fucking said yesterday with this comment...
http://traders-anonymous.blogspot.com/2012/02/sunday-afternoon-post-week-ahead-look.html?showComment=1330384296506#c3598996158286400096
"...Summary
We think it is imprudent to advise legitimate savers to invest in levered financial assets. The extraordinary relative wealth one may have amassed over the last forty years in the financial markets was most likely legitimized by nominal scale that cannot be sustained in real terms. Such beneficiaries of leverage and inflation typically built very little sustainable capital and innovated nothing. The largest beneficiaries of leverage and inflation had a near infinite funding advantage, either near zero-rate short-term fiat currency funding or very low term funding. Insurers like Berkshire could effectively divert wages from their country’s factors of production (by charging insurance premiums) and reinvest those wages by providing financing to businesses that would maintain their pricing power (through strong branding or demand inelasticity). That great funding advantage is now gone and Mr. Buffett does not seem too happy about it.
The narrow gap separating wage growth and asset price growth had to widen following the demise of Bretton Woods. Mr. Buffett may have known about this opportunity earlier and better than almost anyone else because his father, (Howard Buffett, US Congressman from Nebraska), was outspoken in aggressively supporting gold and a fixed exchange currency system. It would be counterproductive and beyond our area of study to try to understand what psychological impulse might compel Mr. Buffett to pursue and achieve lifelong financial success in a manner directly contrary to his father’s views on the value of gold and paper currencies. So we can only guess whether his astounding success in consistently positioning a leveraged inflation portfolio has been the result of a sound pre-meditated strategy passed down from his father or has merely been very ironic...."
ibid.
AAIP,
all businesses carry risk so that doesn't make a rental property unique, I'd argue pretty much all of them carry counterparty risk in the way in which you present it: if there is no customer you have nobody to sell to
still doesn't change the discussion at hand, buffett was specific in talking about food and oil, and I highly doubt you can create a compelling argument for the fomer that says people won't need food in 100 years, oil is potentially debatable
as for:
"have you read any of the 'Business Cases', of Companies, that have 'survived' "Major Inflations" (U.S. in the '70s) or "Currency 'Instabilities'" (Brazil/Argentina) ?"
I suppose my first question would be:
Are there only stories of business that did poorly during such times?
This guy had a rough go but made it:
http://www.inc.com/magazine/201106/doing-business-in-argentina.html
so lets go back to one of the ideas buffett brought up (but again, lets stay focused, its not about Buffett), which is that regardless of what the monetary exchange is people will still buy coke in the future.....maybe they will maybe they won't but I think the basic premise is valid
regardless, it looks to me like Coke never missed a dividend payment in the 70's, if you owned coke you earnings were down, no doubt revenues likely went down but they continued to produce a product everyone wanted and people bought it, maybe just less of it though.
You guys talk about these episodes as if everyone isn't going through the same thing when they take place.... so the business in an absolute sense doesn't really matter, its where you stand relative to everyone else right? Iow, if times are tough and you still own a business that creates something that peole want, regardless of the economic backdrop, you are likely better off relative to most people, even if you also feel some pain getting to the other side. I mean, hyperinflation really spares nobody entirely.
also, so I'm being clear, this isn't about a panacea, its about probability, thats the question at hand, what would more probably put you in a better position in X number of years and income producing asset or gold.
oh, indeed, that is quite the article
why don't you work on squaring this claim, for starters:
"Those that do hold physical gold (or shares in gold miners) would be able to then set the exchange rate to fiat currencies (gold price) at which they would part with their bullion"
go get your GDX then.....
This guy also carries the same idea that Prechter does about government pricing mandates, which I find interesting:
"Any externalities, such as government intervention or price controls that would serve to try to set the exchange rate at a lower-than-market rate, would likely be met with indifference among bullion holders and miner shareholders."
Also, I didn't see this comment pointed out:
"Mr. Buffett’s motivations are not important. He is rich and we think he will always be rich in relative terms because most wealth holders will remain committed to financial assets."
lol.....wasn't that the basic point buffett made?
I also laughed my ass off at this claim
"We believe true savers across the world not beholden to Western financial assets understand or will soon understand the difference between relative nominal returns and absolute real returns."
oh, certainly they will, the countless examples over 100's of years didn't do the trick but it will this time.
CV,
this has nothing to do with ROI
ROI is:
(gain from investment - cost of investment) / cost of investment
In the above formula the "gain from investment" refers to what you get from selling the investment being discussed
but....nobody is talking about that, most especially not warren buffett, we are talking about buying a business that creates an income stream, not buying a farm for $100k that you sell in 18 months for $120k.
this is buffetts whole game, he buys what he thinks is an undervalued business and then he keeps it.
Let's reconcile these two statements...
"I highly doubt you can create a compelling argument for the fomer that says people won't need food in 100 years, oil is potentially debatable"
&
"lets go back to one of the ideas buffett brought up (but again, lets stay focused, its not about Buffett), which is that regardless of what the monetary exchange is people will still buy coke in the future.....maybe they will maybe they won't but I think the basic premise is valid"
~~~~~
I might add to that that it'll be mighty hard to deliver coca cola to all the places it needs to go if either there is no oil, or that oil starts getting priced in "non-petrodollar" terms...
I wouldn't count on KO being able to maintain its dividend payments...
Silver in nosebleed territory? Watch out for the surprise dumping.
also, I'll sell the basic premise of that article which is that markets are efficient, eventually
thats the whole article right, golds intrinsic value will eventually be realized by all
he even wants to try and claim that buffett's success was perhaps random....or ironic, as he said
long live Burton Malkiel!
long live Bogle
CV,
I can't believe this has to be spelled out for you
if oil was no longer in demand as I implied above that is due to the assumption that another source of energy is being used, for shits, lets call that in 100 years it is natural gas instead
the statements are not contradictory, I'm simply saying people are always going to want a couple things, like food, I didn't say what kind of food they'd want, but they will need it. Same with air and water. We dont' know for sure if in 100 years everyone will have to have oil.
isn't that the whole point?, its not "easy" just finding something that produces income today, you have to figure out if it is a high probability to produce income in the future
they don't have to have a coke, a gas powered car, or an iPad.
Have a coke and a smile :)
Mutt
@ben
If we have to switch to nat gas, we'll have to use up the whole water supply to sustain the need to do fracking on the geological substructure to produce the nat gas...
So there won't be any H20 left to make any coke out of...
~~~~~~~
'Jetpacks' (that run on unicorn piss) might be a better delivery system in that case...lol
:-)
@Amen
FWIW... I think Ag might make it to $40 on this go around (before, maybe, pulling back to around $30)...
Long live Prechter!
Long live Brian Wesbury!
Long live James Altucher! (he's been fucking right for the last 3 years)...
http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=SI
~36.95
AT,
you thinkin' that a "Piledriver'-style move, back to the 34s, is poss.
or, something else?
AAIP
AAIP
Silver may have another Sunday nite special.
@AAIP
I rather think of it that there are (not technically) candle gaps (from last July & Sept), right in this area...
I'd expect some 'painting' to be done at that level to exercise the demons...
CV,
so i guess in between your various lifetime gigs you also became an expert in fracking, geological surveys, water supply, everything in fact, lets just say it, CV has the key to the universe!
God is said to have created the earth in 7 days.... the real story is....it took CV (37 time high school letterman, btw) 4 and half
anyway, I'm off to contemplate the end of society and after that the end of the world
you know, fundamentally, it is inevitable, .....eventually (the end of the world)
great chat, we made a ton of progress today though I'm guessing you probably need to repeat the word fiat a few more times in order to meet your daily quota
i'd hate to stand in the way of your mission
"Long live James Altucher! (he's been fucking right for the last 3 years"
you just linked his call for dow 20k
pretty sure that was supposed to be circa now, as I recall last year when he made the call the only thing he was worried about was that the market would do "too good" ...whatever that means
fiat fiat fiat fiat fiat fiat fiat fiat fiat fiat fiat fiat fiat fiat fiat fiat fiat fiat fiat fiat...
There are some positive qualities though (I'll have to admit)...
http://www.youtube.com/fiatusa?sid=1037056&KWNM=fiat+ad&KWID=3109902975&channel=paidsearch
"...we'll have to use up the whole water supply to sustain the need to do fracking on the geological substructure to produce the nat gas..."
That, is Such, Total, F***ing B*******~!..
you know, right? that 'Water' can be "recycled", yes?
to say nothing of..this Co.s version..
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=TSE_GFS
that uses little, to no, Water, at all..
to, completely, overlook the Idea that ~"all NG comes, Not, from 'Shale Plays'"..
as, but, one ex. :
Africa investment news: Natural Gas discovery in Tanzanianew windowpreviewshow in cloudsflag as inappropriate
By The Citizen Reporter and Agencies Dar es Salaam. Following the confirmation of the existence of vast deposits of natural gas in Tanzania, the country ...
afroinvestltd.blogspot.com/2012/02/natural-gas-discovery-in-tanzania.html
http://search.yippy.com/search?query=Natural+Gas+discoveries&tb=sitesearch-all&v%3Aproject=clusty
cv--,
are you sure that (the Song) "The Hippy, Hippy Shake", isn't one of your faves?
AAIP
http://search.yippy.com/search?input-form=clusty-simple&v%3Asources=webplus-ns-aaf&v%3Aproject=clusty&query=The+Hippy%2C+Hippy+Shake
AAIP,
no kidding its total bullshit that comment about water and fracking, I've become quite aware of how the process works thanks to a particular client of mine that is deeply involved
but look out, CV knows something nobody else does!
personally I'm slowly believing natty could be a very, very big deal 15-20 years from today
OK people... Let me warn you all about something that may serve you someday in the future...
It has now officially been determined (by consensus), that due to the sheer fact that CV earned a varsity letter or two in high school... 'Fracking' DOESN'T, then, require an extensive use of H20 to produce nat gas...
Carry on...
AmenRa,
sorry about that..though, when I read that, at first, the 'Comment' was from AT..~
AAIP
personally I'm slowly believing natty could be a very, very big deal 15-20 years from today
Is that not an idea that I was hammering home going all the way back to the Ritholtz blog 3 years ago?
@AAIP
...on the issue of "recycled water" (with regards to fracking)...
In limited examples, the Barnett Shale (Tx) range from depths of around 1,500 ft to 5,000 ft... The Bakken formation (ND) goes up to 10,000 feet...
I'll admit that my knowledge is limited (other than to compare underground fresh water supplies (like the Ogalla Acquifer ~ which, at it's deepest is roughly 400 ft)...
My guess is that fracking water is basically unrecoverable (though I would be glad for someone to provide data to prove me wrong on that so I could learn something ~ instead of people making snide remarks about varsity letters)...
By the way...
Beware of my eventual rebuttal... Because I have a friend of a friend of a client who told me that he heard from Warren Buffett that one of his charitable organizations had a friend who worked (& profited in), 'fracking'...
And they told me it was OK (which was furthermore underscored by the 'Ministry of Propaganda' [after a generous campaign donation])...
Apple's Market Cap Is Now The Same As The Entire Retail Sector, Bigger Than All The Semis
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/ibubble-apples-market-cap-now-same-entire-retail-sector-bigger-all-semis
~~~~~
Party on Wayne... Party on Garth!
It's just funny to watch how the market is pulling out all of the stops to close above 1370.58 (SPX) and 13000 (Dow).
@ben
Since you have a deep understanding of fracking (because of your relationship with your client friend)...
Maybe you would be so kind as to aggregate for us all (on this blog) the...
- total number energy units required to make a transition from an oil based economy to a nat gas based economy (including 'yet to be built' infrastructure and distribution avenues & matrices)...
- Multiply that by the 'curve coefficient' of increased EXPECTED energy consumption over the next (I'll make it simple for you because you nominated the numbers)... 15-20 years...
- Then ~ go about EXPANDING the H20 usuage (however small & piddly that may seem), to fit the new model...
I'll be over at YOU TUBE listening to 'Hippy Hippy Shake' over and over until you get back to me with those charts & figures...
CV
@Amen (3:28)
It ought to be easy (at least S&P wise) to accomplish that...
Seems all you have to do is buy AAPL...
As long as we have Cvienne we have all the Natural Gas we need :p
Water being what it is gets purified very quickly, this weekend Ben and MEH and a couple others were talking about running cheap vodka through a BRita water filter to make good vodka, well water works on the same priciple.
It honestly (In most cases)does not make much of a difference how poluted the H2O is when it is fracted, once it passes through enuff earth it gets purified.
Fracted water that goes straight into an aquifer or a very near by well, or runs up to ground level, should be concidered dangerous, but not if it has to travel through enuff earth.
Also the process of evaportation makes water pretty darn clean too.
Now by no means do I believe the companies in charge of fracking care anything about making sure the population is protected, but if water was not "self" purifying just think how much damage I would do to the water supply when I took my yearly bath.
Mangy Mutt
Anyway...
Hey Bruce... It looks like your 'whuppin stick' dreams may come to fruition)...
Iran Moves Further To End Petrodollar, Announces Will Accept Payment In Gold Instead Of Dollars
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/iran-moves-further-end-petrodollar-announces-will-accept-payment-gold-instead-dollars
~~~~
Many happy returns!
holy fracking shit, what has this blog turned into?
sent from my android
OK Mutt...
I'll bite...
Baaken Shale is 10,000 feet deep... The Ogallala acquifer is about 400 feet...
Tell me how long that 'purified water' is going to take to get there (and what percentage of the total volume)...
I'll drop my argument immediately if you say 'tomorrow'... If we start talking 'Permian' & 'Triassic' time periods, then we might have a problem...
cv--
do some reading..
http://www.filtsep.com/category/309/oil-and-gas/
AAIP
Cvienne - I just went to the sink and left the facet running...There is plenty of the stuff...We will never run out.... J/K
As for your 3:11 and water being unrecoverable - Sea Level.
Water always wants to find it's way back to sea level, which is really kind of curious when you concider the Pacific Ocean is actually lower than the Atlantic.
I am not saying that water automatically goes back to sea level and I am not saying that the idots in charge of fracking won't pumps so much water down into the earths crust that it causes earthquacks and other not so nice stuff and that our supply of drinkable water can not be deminished because of over use (In this case Fracking) but the water will eventually find it's way back to sea level.
Mangy (The water poluting) Mutt
@q's
I'll give you the bullet points...
- were trying to decide if Ag is going to $40 or pull back to $34
- we're wondering if 1370 & 13,000 will hold
- we need to know if we should buy gold or jetpacks
- & we're leaning towards 'candlesticks' as a wedding present
We're dealing with a lot of shit here...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lptsSTTWLVQ
Baseball is FUN goddammit!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OeiYnVScg7w
Cool that is probably the shortest argument you have ever had.
"I'll drop my argument immediately if you say 'tomorrow'"
tomorrow tomorrowtomorrowtomorrowtomorrowtomorrowtomorrowtomorrowtomorrowtomorrowtomorrowtomorrowtomorrowtomorrowtomorrowtomorrowtomorrowtomorrowtomorrowtomorrowtomorrowtomorrowtomorrowtomorrowtomorrowtomorrowtomorrowtomorrowtomorrowtomorrowtomorrowtomorrowtomorrowtomorrowtomorrowtomorrowtomorrowtomorrowtomorrowtomorrowtomorrowtomorrowtomorrowtomorrowtomorrowtomorrowtomorrowtomorrowtomorrowtomorrowtomorrowtomorrowtomorrowtomorrowtomorrowtomorrowtomorrowtomorrowtomorrowtomorrowtomorrowtomorrowtomorrowtomorrowtomorrowtomorrowtomorrowtomorrowtomorrowtomorrowtomorrowtomorrow
Wooooo Hooooo I AM THE WIENNER....I mean WINNER!!!!
YEA I WIN
In case you have not guessed that 3:47 is from my
Mangy (I am the Fracking Winner) Mutt
@Tomorrow!
Congrats! You win... Someone as expedient as you ought to run for political office...
@AAIP (3:41)
Eureka! Problem solved then... No worries...
@AAIP
I can't help but be reminded of this scene...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CuAUE58MQt4
Cvienne - Is Dog Catcher a polical office?
You see, if it is and I win office, I can free all my imprisoned compadras.
Mutt
It's an 'appointed' position...
I'm sure you'd find someone who would give you the post seeing that crony capitalism seems alive & well...
Small thought for the day
For reasons not fully understood, on checking out the OT post over at World of Wallstreet today (one of my regular reads) an old Dalai Lama quote came to mind. So your humble scribe scuttled off to Google to get the quote right (well, the EngLang translation of the quote at least) and here it is:
"Man sacrifices his health in order to make money. Then he sacrifices his money to recuperate his health. Then he is so anxious about the future that he does not enjoy the present; the result being that he does not live in the present or the future; he lives as if he is never going to die and then he dies having never really lived."
http://www.incakolanews.blogspot.com/2012/02/small-thought-for-day.html
ibid.
@AAIP
I want to draw back a little & say that despite all of the 'snarkiness' of my comments above...
My main point (vis-a-vis 'fracking') has little to do with whether one considers (on a small scale) the use &/or re-capture of H20 in the 'fracking' process, & whether or not there is an Australian company that has developed a filtering system for such has proven (in small cases) to work...
I'm more in to PROJECTING the viability of that thesis on a 'humanity' scale (which is the same reason that I come to criticize solar & wind farms & the like)...
Nobody can possibly estimate, in this moment, the effects... To me, the very thought of it is not unlike the GREAT IDEA (sometime ago) to build the Fukushima reactors...
Whocooodanode? Right?
Humans have little capacity (& little ECONOMIC INCENTIVE, for that matter), to consider things on that scale (nor apply them to growth co-efficients moving forward)...
ibid - Life is crazy like that, made me think of the story Cvienne posted the other day.
An American investment banker was at the pier of a small coastal Mexican village when a small boat with just one fisherman docked...
Inside the small boat were several large yellow fin tuna. The American complimented the Mexican on the quality of his fish and asked how long it took to catch them...
The Mexican replied, "Only a little while."
The American then asked, "Why didn't you stay out longer and catch more fish?"
The Mexican said, "With this I have more than enough to support my family's needs."
The American then asked, "But what do you do with the rest of your time?"
The Mexican fisherman said, "I sleep late, fish a little, play with my children, take siesta with my wife, Maria, stroll into the village each evening where I sip wine and play guitar with my amigos, I have a full and busy life."
The American scoffed, "I am a Harvard MBA and could help you. You should spend more time fishing; and with the proceeds, buy a bigger boat: With the proceeds from the bigger boat you could buy several boats. Eventually you would have a fleet of fishing boats. Instead of selling your catch to a middleman you would sell directly to the processor; eventually opening your own cannery. You would control the product, processing and distribution. You would need to leave this small coastal fishing village and move to Mexico City, then Los Angeles and eventually New York where you will run your ever-expanding enterprise."
The Mexican fisherman asked, "But, how long will this all take?"
To which the American replied, "15 to 20 years."
"But what then?" asked the Mexican.
The American laughed and said that's the best part. "When the time is right you would announce an IPO and sell your company stock to the public and become very rich, you would make millions."
"Millions?...Then what?"
The American said, "Then you would retire. Move to a small coastal fishing village where you would sleep late, fish a little, play with your kids, take siesta with your wife, stroll to the village in the evenings where you could sip wine and play your guitar with your amigos."
----------------------------------
Psssst - But I am STILL THE WINNER
Mangy Mutt
That story about the Mexican fisherman also made me think about years ago, I use to work at an orchard.
The manager was a white guy and my co-worker was a Mexican dude, one day my co-worker had an appointment in the morning, so the manager and I were out tending the trees, but the weather started to turn on us and it was getting cold and windy, so we decided to head back to the shop to see if we could wait out the weather.
On the way back the manager was telling me that most of the Mexican farm workers were smarter than most of the white farm workers (And for the most part this is true). He is just finishing telling me this as we are walking up the drive way to see my co-worker (Mexican dude) sitting in his car eating lunch.
So I ask my manager, why do you say that?
He said "Well look at us, we have been working out in the rain getting wet, while Manual there is sitting in his car all dry - Who is smarter?"
That was not the point he was trying to make, but his timing could not have been better.
Mutt
You ARE the winner...
I'm the LOSER... The 'happy' loser (who happens to be off the hamster wheel)...
But I still enjoy a heated debate over some wine...
Anybody here play chess?
under the "it is EZ being a 'value'-Producer"-Category..
LAUREL, MISS. — The poultry processor Sanderson Farms recorded a loss of $7,989,000 during the first quarter of fiscal 2012, ended Jan. 31, due to higher feed prices and weak food service demand. The results are an improvement compared with the same period during the previous year when Sanderson Farms lost $33,556,000 during the quarter.
Sales during the quarter increased to $509,004,000 during the quarter, up 17% from $436,639,000 during the previous year.
“Our results for the first quarter of fiscal 2012 reflect improved, but still challenging, conditions for our industry,” said Joe F. Sanderson Jr., chairman and chief executive officer. “We experienced higher poultry market prices than the same period a year ago. While retail demand for chicken has remained steady, we continue to see weak food service demand, and we believe food service demand will remain under pressure until the national employment environment improves.
“Weak food service demand and ample supplies continue to weigh on market prices for boneless breast meat produced at our food service plants. While grain prices have retreated from the highs they set last fall, we also experienced higher feed costs during the first quarter, and this continues to affect our profitability.”
http://www.foodbusinessnews.net/News/News%20Home/Business%20News/2012/2/Sanderson%20Farms%20records%201Q%20loss%20due%20to%20higher%20prices.aspx
ibid.
cv--
yes, I play Chess..(on occasion)
~~
re: Fukushima
from what I've read, more than One 'knew' (about the 'design Flaw', in the face of the 'Potential' (Earthquake)), but, was, fully, discounted/ignored, b/c of the ''Dollars' & 'Cents''..
also, with.."whether or not there is an Australian company that has developed a filtering system for such has proven (in small cases) to work..."
&
"...Humans have little capacity to consider things on that scale..."
it's B*******.
the (Financial)'Incentive'-part is what has been 'holding sway'..
AAIP
CV,
hey asshole, did I say i was an expert in fracking?
no, I didn't
you on the other hand, claimed expertise in saying that you knew for certain that no natural gas conversion could take place, which of course, you pulled out of your ass....expert, while also reminding us it was your idea first.....which is hilarious.
To be a little more clear for you clown boy:
I have a client that is drilling all over the states right now that is teaching me how it works because I asked him to in the hopes that he would take the time to show me.... which is why I said I've become very aware of the process and various ways fracking is done, what the risks are and what the potential could be. He has a very large energy consulting business in philly with branches in several places in the states as well as in india and europe. They specialize in transmission and distribution, generation, fuel, and retail services. He is often a keynote speaker at large alternative fuel summits and has been for years. I work with the entire company as he pays my fees for all of his employees so I get insight from all of them. they count XOM, BP, Google, and many other huge companies as clients.
he also advises some of the largest utilities in the country
but I'm sure you know so much more than him about it while you talk to yourself in the mirror all day, he's out risking millions of his own money on this but surely you know way more than he does in between running your farm, coaching the italians, making workout videos, teaching zumba classes and so forth.
the dig on you about your blabbing away about what you did in high school 30 years ago was to once again point out to you that you are a moron for relating all your own life experiences in completely unrelated fields as equating to special insight in other areas where you claim total knowledge on subjects you likely no little or nothing about
pathetic
"Is that not an idea that I was hammering home going all the way back to the Ritholtz blog 3 years ago"
as for that, nobody gives a rats ass about what you said at Barry's blog 3 years ago, to say nothing of the fact that your dumb ass just said it couldn't happen!
@Q's
what has the blog turned into?
seems we've all been wading in CV's nonsense for well over a year now right?
so I'm not sure how today is any different than the last 365
one cannot have a discussion here about anything with out either
the rothschilds
paper
fiat
physical
ponzis
or any other number of things being shouted at them
"Life is crazy like that, made me think of the story Cvienne posted the other day"
Do you mean the dumb yahoo link he put up yesterday about the banker that left a $1 tip on a $100 bill and told the waitress to "get a real job"
oh, yes, Yahoo has the follow-up story today:
http://news.yahoo.com/fake-1-percent-tip-193100634.html
shocking that CV could get duped by some nonsense 1%-er story
I'm sure it was the rothschilds that left that tip, and now given that they control all minds and all media they have planted in our brains that it was really all made up....
@AAIP
from what I've read, more than One 'knew' (about the 'design Flaw', in the face of the 'Potential' (Earthquake)), but, was, fully, discounted/ignored, b/c of the ''Dollars' & 'Cents''...
or
"the (Financial) 'Incentive'- part is what has been 'holding sway'..."
~~~~~~
Imagine that!
one cannot have a discussion here about anything with out either
the rothschilds
paper
fiat
physical
ponzis
~~~~~~~~~
EXACTLY!... Thank God you're starting to catch on!
and btw, asshat
my client tells me due to the total lack of infrastructure for nat gas (one of the things you needed me to aggregate for you) its going to take a long ass time for this to play out, and govt regulation can push that date back as well
but again, you know all that, you were talking about it three years ago at Barry's blog even though you also know it "cant happen"
and by covering all outcomes....
this way you've got all your bases covered so in 15 years after you've made no investment in it, made no money off of it, and are angry and bitter you can get on traders anonymous and show everyone your comment link from 2009 where you "called it".... to make yourself feel better
@ben
I posted that YAHOO link (without comment)because I figured you...
THE EXPERT IN 'SOCIOECONOMICS'...
Would be able to make heads or tails of it from a Bob Prechter POV...
In addition... I also posted a (without comment) link to a foto of David Thompson with his elbow over the rim (probably goaltending) in a game against Bill Walton & UCLA vs. the Wolfpack because I'm sure that someone like Prechter would note that, in 1974, soaring to those kind of heights would signify an upward reaching trend (as long as the 'moon phase' correlations were to hold sway)...
"EXACTLY!... Thank God you're starting to catch on!"
um, ok
here's a question:
If you meant that, how could you be confused when Bruce tells you that you participate in self destructive behavior?
when clearly you are, by your own admission just now
CV,
never once have I claimed that I was an expert at anything. Never once.
Thats you, projecting to me,......again. You have a very serious problem with this.
but there you are again, repeating things you never took the time to read and clearly don't understand
I've become very aware of the process and various ways fracking is done, what the risks are and what the potential could be. He has a very large energy consulting business in philly with branches in several places in the states as well as in india and europe. They specialize in transmission and distribution, generation, fuel, and retail services
Well now that you put it that way...
Since there are PROFITS involved it couldn't POSSIBLY be dangerous, right?
and also, like I just said, the article was fake
so there was nothing to make heads or tails of
no doubt the rothschilds planted it on HuffPo, looks like they foiled you again
McB,
would your Client be interested in 'Fracking "flow-back"'-Water Recycling?
an Engineering Associate, of mine, would be willing to discuss that with him..also, the Engineer has a 'Solution' for that 'Problem'..
AAIP
Ok,
CV, this will be my last post here as you have clearly lost your mind
I just said in that comment "I've become very aware of the process and various ways fracking is done, what the risks are"
and you reply:
"it couldn't POSSIBLY be dangerous, right?"
are you insane?
I do mean this man, I hope everything is ok with you
I might suggest, as a non-expert, that you seek expert help.
AAIP,
I'm sure he would, I think I still have your email address, I can give you a company link there if you'd like.
oh, and btw, seeking profits, is not, by itself
"evil"
Well ben...
I work in the 'fitness industry'...
Let me ask you something... Would you SERIOUSLY want to hear my ideas on the path (& sacrifices) it might take to achieve well balanced fitness...
or... would you prefer to hear the opinions of my EXPERT colleagues in the business who want to sell you...
- diet pills
- miracle weight loss programs
- apparatus that perform the same functions
- self help books
- memberships (that they know you'll cancel out on)
- videos & DVD's (like Thor)
...or, failing that, they'll just give you...
- a boob job
- a face lift
- a tummy tuck
- other liposuction
- lip enhancement
... or other "salt mine" cures...
~~~~~~~~~
I'm guessing you'd choose the latter
Ben22 (5:08) - I normally do not like to correct people and you usually have little that should be corrected, but your 5:08 comment...It has been more than a year...WELL MORE...
Just say'n
Mutt
cv--
Ben's point about ~"lack of Infrastructure", is, indeed, Correct..
there are Thousands of Miles of Pipeline(at the minimum) that need to be constructed..
If 'We' had, any, *Real Leadership, the switching, of the the U.S. 'Economy', to NG, from Oil, would be of, tremendous, net Economic, benefit..
and, that should make you 'happy', as well, b/c it would provide for the jettisoning of, both, the Petro$, and the FedRes..
needless to say, it would take a massive Re-awakening of the 'Cained Peep..
(Why do you think that the 'Fracking will Kill us All'-Line of H*******t has been given so much currency (?))
"...govt regulation can push that date back as well..."
think that isn't 'Correct'?
think the 'Greens' aren't part of the Status Quo?
forget that the 'Greens' are, actually, 'Watermelons'?
forget Who? financed the, first, 'Reds'?
you should be careful, b/c, it seems, that you're 'doping' yourself up--on, too much, 'Theory'..
AAIP
Mc22,
you can 'find it', through the /Link/, above..
@Mutt (5:36)
So that is 'material'?
Whether or not I stand my ground for more or less than a year is the clinical definition as to whether or not I've lost my mind?
~~~~~~~
Not that I subscribe to this notion, But 'assuming' that what you were taught in school ("vis-a-vis" that it was "Christopher Columbus who was the ONLY FUCKING PERSON ALIVE who believed the world was round whilst everyone else, at that exact moment in time believed the world to be flat)...
Is that to assume that if... the time period involved between globe & flatdom extended for more than a year, then Columbus would have been verifiably insane & thus deemed not fit to sail?...
IOW ~ Quit with the "ad hominem" attacks, (they don't become you)...
cv--
@17:35
ever hear of a False Dichotomy?
think 'Every'-one 'in the Biz' is, just, a pro-'Ho?
sorry, that isn't the case..
just, look around, if all were "'tutes", it wouldn't 'work' as well as it does..
ibid.
(5:32) By Ben22, By Karen, By Thor, By Leftback, By Jen, By Mannwich, By Jim, By a lot of other posters, that use to frequent this blog and others.
And the Wheels on the Short Bus go Round'NRound.
Does anyone ever wonder where Karen and some of the others have gone? Do you suppose they just up and stopped blogging?
Yea I doubt that too.
Do you suppose they found a place where they can blog and trade thoughts and ideas without being told what and how they are supposed to think?
Yup I believe that is possible.
And the Wheels on the Short Bus Go Round'NRound
Whhhhhhheeeeeeeeeeeeee
And do you suppose is the self proclaimed driver of the Short Bus (with Tasty Windows) that has driven them away?
--------------------------------------------
cv said...
@AAIP (1:28)
Classic timing!
I'll hit the highlights (while driving with one hand on the short yellow bus)...
------------------------------------------
All abord....
Mangy Ass Mutt
@Mark
I think you're missing my total point here...
If anybody has read my posts here for, as 'Mutt' says (many years)... I have been an advocate for nat gas since the beginning...
To the extent that I have cited numerous 'conversions' to nat gas (including my first experience with it in Perugia, Itay, where my business partner in the gym drove a Mercedes station wagon which was converted to run on CNG)...
I'm ALL for 'maximizing' the utilization of CNG...
I'm still leery about the environmental aspects of FRACKING though... I still think it's an aspect of the science (with regards to mass production) that has yet to make the needle in my 'chaos' meter remain quiet & still)...
(5:48)
Do you suppose they found a place where they can blog and trade thoughts and ideas without being told what and how they are supposed to think?
Yup I believe that is possible...
~~~~~~~
Do you want an answer to that? Or do you prefer to simply tell ME how I should think?
As to where they are (or why they don't post anymore)... Is that my problem, or yours?
Maybe they got bored?... Maybe they came to the same conclusion that I did that 'paper' markets aren't like they used to be (so what's the sense 'blogging' about it)?...
Can you tell me... FOR A FACT... That you know the answer to that question better than I do...
~~~~~~~
Now... I can tell you ONE THING (& I can prove this)...
Last Monday (february 20)... I posted the 'link' to the stupid 'Oscar Picks' thread that I wrote and posted on the FANTASY SPORTS blog that I otherwise do...
The last thread I'd done on that blog was way back in week 17 of the NFL... Therefore ~ the DAILY HITS tallies on that blog dropped from nearly 500... to ZERO in the passage of about 7 weeks...
This past week I checked (out of curiosity)...
There was a sudden "spike" of over 60 hits on February 20 after I posted the Oscar link to the 'Traders Anonymous' blog...
Wanna check it?... I invite you to come see...
Now I know I'm the "short yellow bus" kinda dude... But despite the insistence of Bruce that NOBODY GIVES A FF about my Oscars picks (&/or the notion that all of those former patrons that you just nominated are gone forever)...
Well ~ I don't know... After preponderence of a zero to sixty data spike on 2/20/12... You decide...
cv--
what, exactly, is your flippin' Point?
What is it that you're trying 'achieve'?
and, like I was asking a couple of Days ago..are you OK? Can I do anything for you?
AAIP
'One' might *think that Romney and ol' Uncie (WB) should 'tie A***oles'..
The full quote from Romney, when asked if he was a NASCAR fan, starts with an honest admission that he isn't one. "Not as closely as some of the most ardent fans. But I have some great friends that are NASCAR team owners."
http://12160.info/group/ronpaulforpresident2012/forum/topics/romney-tried-to-play-the-part-of-a-nascar-loving-regular-joe-but-
ibid.
@AAIP
I have no 'flippin' point if you haven't figured it out already...
It is quite evident that it doesn't matter whether of not that I'm trying to 'achieve' anything...
There's nothing you can do for me... I don't find myself in need of assistance...
With that... I bid the 'bloggers' of TRADERS-ANONYMOUS, a fond adieu...
CV
...except (to say)
"To give anything less than your best is to sacrifice the gift...
~Steve Prefontaine
~~~~
Now THAT is a quote right there... Thumbs up!
the Video, here ..
http://theintelhub.com/2012/02/27/cia-controlled-media-cia-admits-using-news-to-manipulate-the-usa/
short..was worthwhile..
ibid.
New thread dammit!!!
:-)
"...I don't find myself in need of assistance..."
so, either, you're 'Super-Dude', or, in, deep, Denial..
and, I'll save you the 'John Donne', ok?
AAIP
CV,
re: fitness
you know whats funny, there was a point last year that I almost emailed you to see if I could pay you to come with a meal plan for me because you'd likely be the best person that I know to do that and I do believe you are an EXPERT in that particular area.
the only reason I didn't is because we are too far away from each other and I figured it would work better if you were directly working me out and could truly monitor what I was doing so I went locally for it instead
do you think thats what I do.... get "expert" advice from the tv and live my life according to what the tell me to do? Like maybe I watched Oprah for years, and really lived it? lol.....
as for your environmental concerns about fracking
valid
but then, oil presents the same problem, and there have been huge environmental costs from it....so fracking isn't much different in that respect, hard for that to be a reason not to try and move forward with it
it seems to me the cost/benefit favors natty over oil....at least for people here in the states
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