Feeling much better now. Enclosed below are some thoughts on the S&P500 and a little follow up to last week's Copper look.
The technical forecast remains quite similar to how it has been the last several weeks: 100% chance of choppiness and frustration until 2012.
From the last slide:
"For those traders who really can’t stay away from the action, the following levels represent first and second points of support and resistance. If one were to point a gun to my head and say “Make a trade right now that will make money in the next few days” … I would probably buy this market in front of 1196 and run a stop below that level. Fortunately, there is no gun to anyone’s head. A break below 1196 should cause the market to “coast” to 1158."
Addendum:
Did caffeinated drinks kick of the Age of Enlightenment?
This actually makes sense to me....
14 comments:
AT,
re: Coffee (stimulant) kicks off 'Age of Enlightenment'..
might want to go EZ on that one...
could be 'Correlation=Causation'..
another, poss., explaination might be that Coffee & Tea were found 'Overseas'..
proved 'Popular'..
Demand for such fueled Inquiry into ~"How do We increase our Productivity--procuring/providing Supply(?)"
and, on like that..
but, at its 'Core', as was mentioned in the VidSnip, was the 'Network effect', of the 'Coffee Houses' themselves..
AAIP
Housing starts higher due to multi-family homes not single family (which were down).
ECB backdoor appearance at Spain's auction helped drop the rate.
Anything and everything must be done to keep BAC above five during normal market hours.
This rally today still isn't enough to pay the ransom for Santa Claus.
Rally on Wayne
@AAIP.
Everything I read about the 1000-1500 time period in medieval England...they only drank ale. That's what they had for breakfast, lunch and dinner.
I have to imagine that getting off that sort of diet had to have some impact on the "group" dynamic.
Agree on the "coffee house" aspect of things....
If you get a group of guys in a coffee house coming up with ideas vs. a group of guys discussing things in a pub...you get a different outcome of ideas.
AmenRa- Not that I believe the numbers that NAR or any other group is putting out there, but if it is true that multi-family home starts are increasing, isn't that actually bearish for the housing market?
If Aunt Sussie is walking away from either her morgage or her rented appt and moving in with Cousin Bob and his grown kids and grandma and grandpa, then doesn't that mean there is at least one (If not 3) single family houses or appts that are sitting vacant?
Which would/should push down the price of single family houses even more.
Isn't it somewhat like saying an increase in bus sales is good for auto manufatures?
Mangy Mutt
file this one under things "not to do" while trying to get rid of evidence:
http://www.wyff4.com/r/30037563/detail.html
I guess I wish there was a gun to my head last night....
@Mutt.
I still remember the articles discussing how the "burbs" will actually become the slums of the future. The large 'burb homes are actually a cheap way to house larger families of multi-generations.
While the rich/affluent come back to the city centers where they will be closer to work.
It's an interesting theory.
http://www.finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=S
'mazing that there wasn't more 'upside'-reaction to the T 'news' ..
~~
AT,
Today is, yet, another that needs the 'Smoky'-sign-age ..
~~
also, to be clear, the 'Coffee'/'Upper'-story has, some, merit..was, just, saying that ~"I doubt it's the 'Whole' of it.."
AAIP
"... The large 'burb homes are actually a cheap way to house larger families of multi-generations..."
Yes, not many are going to be pulling off 'Walton's Mountain' @ 55th & 7th ..
ibid.
The towns in the area I grew up in were originally designed with the main residential area where the rich lived to have the streets separated by a park like island were trees were planted. So traffic would be one way and separated by the islands.
These areas had/have some very grand old houses (Mid to late 1800’s) but are also some of the most run down areas, in fact in the 1990’s my brother rented the upstairs of one of these houses that had been converted into an apartment.
I think as cars became more prevalent, it allowed the more affluent people to build houses further out and still be able to conduct business in a timely manner.
And since there will always be a distinction between “us” and “them” and “rich” and “poor” (Who ever those two groups are) I can see why the affluent would want to keep a step ahead of “them”
But (Don’t remember the exact numbers) until about the 2000 home ownership in America was around 65% in 2007 it reached about 70%, which means 10’s of if not 100’s of thousands of homes were over build. We have the retiring and dying off of the Baby Boomers and we have the traditional first time home buys (20 something) graduating from college with huge debts but few job prospects.
You throw on top of that people building and or moving into multi-generational homes.
Doesn’t that kind of distort how traditional home ownership is going to be take place? For myself, I do not believe there will be any real or actual (Yes there will be pockets of it) upturn in the real-estate market for at least 5 years.
Mutt
TNX up 6.18% GTFOOH.
I still don't see any reason for the market to move this much on an outlier result in home sales.
5-Year Treasury 0.86 +0.04 +4.88%
10-Year Treasury 1.93 +0.11 +6.04%
30-Year Treasury 2.93 +0.13 +4.64%
http://www.finviz.com/
"Friends don't let Friends..."
ibid.
AAIP
"Friends don't let Friends..."
...trade the market using rumors.
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