3 mth vs Overnite Libor (daily info)new high 0.420
trend=up
high= 0.420
rev= 0.409; mid= 0.415
When it's all said and done the EU banks are living by the rule "Trust No One". This spread is now widening at a faster pace. The spread is back above its 38.2% retrace.
TED Spread (weekly info)new high 0.5430
trend=up
high= 0.5430
rev= 0.4980; mid= 0.5205
The TED Spread is also at highs not seen since 2009. It's trending up on the weekly 3LB. It will be trending up on the monthly 3LB if the month closes above 0.5090. It's back above the 50.0% minor retrace.
2s30s Spread (weekly info)new low 2.61
trend=down
low= 2.61
rev= 3.05; mid= 2.83
This spread is fighting to hold its 61.8% retrace. It's below all SMA's. Hard for banks to have a profit with such a small spread. Then again they're not lending too much anyway. SMA(21) sloping down isn't helping matters.
11 comments:
Italy GDP
QoQ -0.2%
YoY 0.2%
"... the processes, morals and methods he taught me are still paying sweet dividends two decades later.
One of his demands was the weekly ritual of a portfolio review of each holding in every client account. When Friday came round he insisted I justify why this or that position was in a client’s account and quite frankly it drove me crazy. I would complain that we had done the same damn thing every week for months and not much had changed. So why was he still asking me the same questions again and again. And every time I complained he would respond with a question of his own, often dramatizing it by looking out the window or throwing the Wall Street Journal on his desk. Prove to him that the world was the same one that existed when we reviewed the accounts the last time.
And of course he was right; the world was not the same and often quite different from week to week. This trial by fire is something I still force myself to go through every Friday afternoon. Knowing the client and the world situation, if I can’t justify the position, why the hell is it still in the account? But of equal or greater value to me were my mentor’s questions each time I tried to add a new position to an account. I hated his probing and poking and often I took it personally. And that bastard knew where all my buttons were and delighted in pressing every single one until I finally wised up and stopped letting him goad me.
After we had discussed why I was adding the position, and well before I was allowed to call the client and make the pitch, he always had one final question for me. How was I going to dispose of it if things went wrong in a hurry? Or in his words, “What’s the end game on that?” At first I felt his question was downright stupid and my rote answer was always that I would cross that bridge when I got there. But he never let me get away with my intellectual laziness and he’d ask the same question 6 different ways until I saw all the possible pitfalls based upon the knowledge I had at the time.
I can still hear him today. “Don’t ever take on a new position until you have thoroughly considered how you will dispose of it under the worst of conditions.” It forced me to look beyond my nose and consider how circumstances change, and with those changes the ability to sell something that, while saleable today, might not be tomorrow. Liquidity and desirability can dry up quickly and always when it is least convenient to you and your client. This perspective broadening exercise was extremely useful beyond my business world because it can and should be applied at all (not just major) life decision points...."
http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/golden-end-game-–-thought-experiment
AAIP
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/
..The Michael Platt interview this morning on Mish's site is certainly worth the time it takes to consider it.....
AAIP:
None of us would consider trading serious money these days without a physical stop...sounds like this guy was using intellectual stops which are probably even more effective...
I've got to pay more attention to SKEW. It jumped 3% yesterday so someone loaded up on OOM options.
http://www.realtor.org/press_room/news_releases/2011/12/ehs_nov
Also released today are benchmark revisions3 to historic existing-home sales. The 2010 benchmark shows there were 4,190,000 existing-home sales last year, a 14.6 percent revision from the previously projected 4,908,000 sales. For the total period of 2007 through 2010, sales and inventory were downwardly revised by 14.3 percent. The revisions are expected to have a minor impact on future revisions to Gross Domestic Product.
Ra, those numbers, if true (again), is a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma
now KB home sales down 20%
http://www.rttnews.com/CorpInfo/EconomicCalendar.aspx
...Page 4.
...Government spending dropped by .6% in Italy last quarter...personal spending dropped by .3%..
...I wonder if all the PIIGS are now technically in recession..
B in T
I saw the Platt interview on BBG when it was broadcast. Excellent.
http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2011/12/21/risk-on-risk-off/?iid=HP_River
"Of course, who has the capacity to put on an every-kind-of-security bet on one day and take it off the next other than the most institutional of investors? Not you or me. (Or at least not me.) That's where UBS (UBS) comes in. Late last month, the bank introduced two new exchange-traded notes (similar to exchange traded funds, but a little more complicated) called Risk On (ONN) and Risk Off (OFF). Forget stock picking or trying to ladder your bond investments. Sell everything, folks, and just sit by your own personal investing light switch. It's that easy. Unless, of course, you pick the wrong one on the wrong day. Then you're out of luck.
While the idea is simple enough, these are not single-security notes. ONN is long everything from oil--with a 34% weighting--to semiconductors (1.84%), Internet stocks (0.46%), wheat and soybeans (both 4%). OFF is likewise short these same securities and it's also long 10-year Treasuries, Japanese yen, German bunds, Swiss francs, and gilts.)"
...Yep. Down to the very basics now...
Had to give Santa some bread and water today. He's starting to look a little thin.
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