HYG (weekly info)WEEKLY REVERSAL new low 82.51
trend=no
direction=down (1 bar)
low= 82.51
rev= 90.12; mid= 86.32
Last week sent HYG below its 61.8% minor retrace and coursed a weekly 3LB reversal down. It's below all SMA's. MACD crossed below zero last week also. This week is forming a bullish harami but could be a head fake.
LQD (weekly info)WEEKLY CONFIRMATION new low 110.25
trend=no
direction=down (2 bars)
low= 110.25
rev= 115.60; mid= 112.93
LQD is having a rough time. I guess corporate bonds are not the place to be either. It's almost below all SMA's. It's still above its 38.2% minor retrace. MACD is still pushing lower.
TLT (weekly info)-no change (above mid)
trend=up
high= 120.83
rev= 111.20; mid= 116.02
TLT is looking to continue its uptrend. It's above all SMA's. This weeks candle is bullish but small keeping the trend intact. Once traders understand EFSF is a failure and US financials take a dive, it should break through the 0.0% retrace with little to no effort.
62 comments:
sorry bears, hope nobody was heavy short overnight
ouch......
sometimes we can benefit by learning from stuff like this:
http://traders-anonymous.blogspot.com/2011/11/morning-corner-112311.html?showComment=1322058233130#c6139717058090175027
this is one of those times imo.....attribute the rally to whatever you like, point was you shouldn't have been selling last week, especially if you were already hedged......
ben22
I guess the EU implosion was imminent and since the ECB won't print the Fed had to step in. Also BAC was about to dive deep into the 4's.
WTI well over $100. US GDP just swan dived.
It's a solvency crisis not a liquidity crisis. So even though the Central Banks increased liquidity the banks under them are still insolvent.
Ra,
I don't really think its about printing, reading between the statements this is about the ECB eventually buying up a lot of sov. debt.....the statement is likely vague because they don't really know exactly how/if it will work
good luck with all that CB's, my opinion is you'll fail again, as if this is the end of it all......
but really, my point was simply you shouldn't be using this stuff to make your investment choices, we use "the market" for that
selling into the 61.8, the nearly exact triangle target, a very oversold RSI and several other factors was not the right move last week, are you really going to ignore all of these types of factors because of headlines out of Europe, which have not stopped since 2009?
if you wanted to de-risk you should have waited for a bounce.....
The bat signal was turned on when BAC had a low of $4.98 in the AH.
ben22
Some trader on Bloomberg just said that things are worse than what the Fed has been letting on or this step wouldn't be needed.
100k E-minis at 8:00-8:05AM ET
Ra,
I don't really know why anyone would even bother to listen to the Fed and then actually believe what they say
they are all liars, so yeah, of course that is the case
they are saying today that this is to help create liquidity for homeowners and such
give me a break......just like that's what QE2 was for.....riiiiight
ben22
Do you think this move has anything to do with the fact that the ECB failed to sterilize bond purchases? Or that the bond market had turned their eye to the UK?
Let's not forgot. The MSM loves ADP when it's better than expected and doubt its usefulness when worse than expected. If I remember right the last time ADP beat by a large margin NFP was worse than expected.
Ha! TICK couldn't even break +1000.
Wait a minute. Those 192k Jan $6 calls on BAC made a mint today. Someone knew.
Ra,
I think the move is probably based on a million different things, I couldn't say what in particular
and sure, of course someone knew this was going to happen, I mean holy crap those Paulson articles just came out showing he told select people well ahead of time what was going on and then lied about it in public, but they didn't know the market reaction, or how long said reaction would last
maybe that was doug kass, he got really bullish the last two weeks I think
there also seems to be this popular thing that goes on where people think fixed income forecasts stocks all the time, but over history quite clearly there is no clear correlation between the two and its def. not a 1:1 on a daily basis
so who the hell knows, all I know is that my charts were major oversold by Friday of last week, the triangle target was met, sentiment was quite bearish, clients calling in a panic, family members looking at me like I'm from outer space saying "big rally coming" and so on
it's been really hard for me to break the habit of going back to all the bad macro instead of just going with my charts, but I'm getting better every day
All of the economic reports today are beating by 4 standard deviations. Smells fishy.
Nice call, Ben.
BTW, I agree that things are bad in Europe if this kind of step is required. This is an EoY lifeline for the European banks.
Note the strength of US fixed income today (it should have been buried by warmer econ data), I think you will see some buying in Ts, if not here then definitely at next week's auctions.
A clever chap called Saul Bollox posted this at MM last night, sounds like he thinks like you Ben:
1) Lack of comments at MM and declining VIX - Bullish.
2) Loads of blokes writing about shorting JGBs and other odd Widowmakers - Bullish.
3) Nobody talking about the week's most important stat (US jobs) - Bullish.
4) Nobody who is out fancying the market much - Bullish.
5) Room overhead to firm resistance in DAX at 6000 - Bullish.
6) Nobody positioned for a run to SPX 1250 Bullish. 7) Loads of managers holding dry powder for the traditional Santa Claus rally - Bullish.
8) Mainstream media awash with Euro breakup stories - Bullish.
9) General assumption that Euros are incapable of booting the can for say a 30 day period - Bullish.
Get rid of all of the above and I will be back in the tank sitting in my Bear suit. Claws and all. Kevlar'd some NZT last week so keeping a close eye on Antipodean FX for now.
JOHN E is going to want a piece of this action, Ben.
It's MORNING in America..
Lefty,
if anyone calls before end of the week I will let you guys know
but people might not figure it out until tonight/tomorrow
I'm not getting rid of my bonds yet, I'll say that much as well, we are still rolling with Gundlach in a big way in those two DoubleLine Funds, DLTNX, DLFNX
just one point of caution on the stocks:
we are basically moving to the Apex of the triangle that we all just watched break and move its target, until that apex breaks to the upside (in the 1245 area) then it is resistance, this is very common for symmetrical triangles to do this, there is also a weak but viable head and shoulders target in the same spot on the one hour $spx chart, so dont' want to get overly excited about this move here, after all, as you say, it's perhaps nothing more than an EoY lifeline
so enjoy the Santa rally if thats what this is, it might vanish by 1/15, a faded memory by then.
also, I think Ra found the picture for KnifeCatcher Capital LLC last night
please, all of you, check these out from our local hero Joe Biden, I just can't even make this up:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=buRO9TSlScQ
john corzine, smartest guy Biden knows...in terms of finance and the economy....he really, truly, means it
we should all be so happy that the national model was derived from the NJ model! bwahahahahaha
now go fist pump, jersey style, cause we got a situation here
Morning in America Bitchez.
Yep, all we needed was more liquidity...
ben,
Refty intends on dumping some of the stuff we Kevlar'd last week. But we must admit we are enjoying watching Mr Shorty squirm.
Think of it, the 1195 crowd, the 1205 club and the 1215ers, all burned out in one go. But that only leaves the 1250 group and they will be a lot more organized.
Don't short this market, but there's nothing wrong with taking profits when Mr Market delivers them to you on a plate.
BTW, what up with NLY?
Mourning in America.
wish I had a good answer re: NLY
it looks like crap, I'm still long but doubt is growing
also, I enjoy watching the other side squirm....when I'm not on it of course
here I was not short, so clearly I'm in a good mood, otherwise I'd be a bit pissy today for sure
B22... "until that apex breaks to the upside (in the 1245 area"
ya meant to say 1244 didn't ya!?
sold the only 10 SSO calls bot monday late, never thought this thing would explode upwards like it did, huge short squeeze.
bot 10 SDS calls just a bit ago, cause we're getting close. might regret this, but, when in vegas, don't ya say "hit me", then see what card they turn?
(back to the salt mine, these 12+ hour days are getting brutal!)
Yeah, one really has to pay attention to media noise/sentiment extremes.
The question is why such a big stick save? The folks at ZH do have a point here:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/here-what-happened-after-last-global-coordinated-central-bank-intervention
18, .....1244, 18's, of course!
nice trading, you had the short just before that as I recall....reall nice swings there wow
gotta run for couple hours, good luck
Leftback
Dude, that was only TWO MONTHS ago!
ben22
SPX back to the 38.2% retrace and the lower edge of the previous triangle.
Dude, that was only TWO MONTHS ago!
Quite.
It's REFTBACK, btw. His cousin, from Osaka.
LB is ON ASSIGNMENT.
ROR.
Ben
My guess is the long only churn houses start rotating out of reflation and global growth stocks and into divvys again this afternoon.
Silver short might be an attractive option again soon.
The top half of the class will have noticed that TIP is flat on the day.
AGG is only down a fraction.
Credit markets are saying we will buy any and all of your US paper.
...and if you must know, my JNK is up.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/fed-cancels-pomo-due-system-difficulties
There's a first time for everything.
BAC
No daily 3LB reversal. No shot at the weekly 3LB mid. Didin't take out the open from 11/28. Give it a few days before it retests a 4 handle.
It's official. All of the "unexpected" Thanksgiving week carnage has been undone. But there is a rumor that a major EU bank was about to fail...
What's the over/under on the half life of this intervention?
3% up moves are quite normal in healthy markets.
(B a r e s T E E T H)
The REITs are usually dead meat on reflation squeeze days.
Today is no exception. Floating on the surface of the pond.
My 7.35 NZT punt is now trading near 8.00
Quality Kevlar catch.
NFLX not feeling the love.
I may come late in the day again.
Just for THE FUN.
Mr Shorty wasn't ready this morning, it was all over very quickly.
A bit messy, no prolonged ecstasy. OR agony...
The Chinese started it.
I thought I heard firecrackers in my dreams, and then I woke up.
Then they were doing it to me globally.
- it was a rather rude awakening.
Mr Shorty
That wasn't fireworks. Your subconscious realized you enjoyed the reach around...
Hope you didn't laugh out loud at work at have everyone staring at you. LMAO.
Egan Jones downgrades France from AA- to A. Pisani says only pay attention to the "big 3" rating agencies.
GTFOOH
Damn. Bastids destroyed the chance for a monthly 3LB reversal up for DXY.
It's hard to laugh after Trans-Testicular Torque has been applied.
Especially when Cold Steel is lurking.
Don't worry, I'll be gentle...
All joking apart, we took profits and reduced risk on positions by 8% or so.
Ra,
I'm sure he didn't mean it this but Bobby Pissant is correct, you only pay attention to the "big 3"
this way you know which calls are bullshit and to be faded, it would seem Egan Jones gets it mostly right by comparison....
see what I did there?
Reftback
Nice move.
QE∞ Bitchez!!!
nice trading leftback
New classic: http://farm8.staticflickr.com/7006/6431315113_08c34c9964_b.jpg
Atlas Mugged - William Banzai
Italy 10yr still over 7%
look at SODA....don't touch that pos.....below $30 was a death nail perhaps
Mmmmmm.... that was good.....
Refty now owns Chorus, as well as NZT. Never had a spin off before. It just appeared in the portfolio as though we had done a trade in our sleep....
Bloody hell, what a week....
It's only Wednesday !!!
A faint whiff of panic buying late in the day, perhaps?
- along with the whimpering of the repeatedly rodgered Mr Shorty.
WFC +7.39%
MS +11.12%
JPM +8.44%
GS +7.94%
C +8.87%
BAC +7.09%
http://www.finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=NFLX
~64.53 -4.5%
ibid.
AAIP
Like I noted earlier NFLX gets no love.
new thread
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